Climate Climate Test BedTest Bed

Climate Climate Test BedTest Bed

THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BEDTHE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED

Climate Community

Climate Community

Research &Development

Research &Development

NOAA ClimateForecast

Operations

NOAA ClimateForecast

Operations

Mission:Mission: to accelerate the transition of research and development into improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications.

01 November 2005

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• MotivationMotivation

• CTB RoleCTB Role

• FrameworkFramework

– InfrastructureInfrastructure

– Transition Projects & Science PrioritiesTransition Projects & Science Priorities

• OrganizationOrganization

• 11stst CTB Annual Meeting CTB Annual Meeting

– Objectives; Expected OutcomeObjectives; Expected Outcome

THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BEDTHE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED

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MOTIVATIONMOTIVATION(Scientific)(Scientific)

– NCEP has developed and tested a new fully coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS) for use in S/I applications that shows considerable promise.

– The CFS is a significant step forward in forecasting ENSO related SST variability, having achieved at least parity with statistical forecasts.

– FasterFaster development of NOAA climate forecast systems is needed to improve on these forecasts and to provide more useful climate forecast products and applications.

– Supporting NOAA climate forecast systems for use by climate researchers is an optimal way to leverage the expertise of NOAA and the external

community in order to accelerateaccelerate the necessary improvements.

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Skill in SST Anomaly PredictionNiño 3.4 (DJF 97/98 – DJF 03/04)

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MOTIVATIONMOTIVATION(Programmatic)(Programmatic)

– In order to achieve the blend of internal and external efforts required to improve NOAA operational climate forecast systems, a Climate Test Bed (CTB) facility has been organized.

– The CTB will

• provide more traction and visibilitytraction and visibility to intraseasonal-to-decadal climate research by accelerating the transition to NOAA climate forecast operations;

• provide an operational testing environmentoperational testing environment to support projects that result in a direct influence on NOAA climate forecast operations;

• provide infrastructure and resourcesinfrastructure and resources for (long term, AO-driven, community-wide) projects on broader research issues affecting NOAA climate forecast operations.

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CTB ROLECTB ROLE

What does the CTB bring that’s genuinely new?

– A Focus on Transition

– A Means of Engagement for the research, operations and applications communities

– A Mechanism for Distribution of Models & Data.  

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A FOCUS ON TRANSITIONA FOCUS ON TRANSITION

In order to accelerate improvements the CTB must define a process to:

– Identify and communicate the scope of responsibilities for the Research (R), Operations (O), and Applications (A) communities.  

– Identify and delineate different types of transition:

• R2O: define where O picks up responsibility, and at what juncture a "hand-off" from R occurs.

• O2A: define where A picks up responsibility, and at what juncture a “hand-off” from O occurs.

– Identify resources for R, O and A to ensure smooth transitions.  

Research and Development

NCEP

O2A

User Community

R2O

1. Large “volume” of R&D,funded through AOs,Agency Labs…

2 Smaller set of R&Dproducts suitable foroperations.

3. Systematic transition steps R2O.

4. Systematic transition steps O2A

5. Delivery to diverse USERcommunity

Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition ProcessApplying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process

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NCEPis uniquelypositioned

to provide an operational

infrastructure for the

transition process

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Operation

s

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RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS GUIDELINESGUIDELINES

((Pan et al.Pan et al.))

• The Path to implementation of changes in the NCEP operational climate model suite consists of the following steps:

– Model development and refinement

– Preliminary assessment

– Calibration

– Interface with operations

– Final skill assessment

– Parallel tests

– Approval

• Roles of host (research) institution and the operational center must be clear for each step to ensure smooth transitions.

• Resources are needed for both the research and operations communities to ensure smooth transitions.

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OPERATIONS TO OPERATIONS TO APPLICATIONS GUIDELINESAPPLICATIONS GUIDELINES

• The path for implementation of operational tools in CPCs consolidated seasonal forecasts consists of the following steps:

– Retroactive runs for each tool (hindcasts)

– Assigning weights to each tool;

– Systematic error correction

– Specific output variables (T2m & precip for US; SST & Z500 for global)

– Available in real-time

• Need to identify and refine steps for other types of O2A

– Delivering models and data to the community; NOMADS Server

– Regional applications of NOAA climate forecasts (energy, agriculture, H2O resources, fire Wx)

• Roles of the operational center and the applications community must be clear for each step to ensure smooth transitions.

• Resources are needed for both the operations and applications communities to ensure smooth transitions.

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A MEANS OF ENGAGEMENTA MEANS OF ENGAGEMENT

• Collaboration with the climate community is key:

– Broaden membership on CTB SAB, CST, OB and Transition Project Teams; include private sector and international members

– Expand collaborative transition projects (AO’s)

– Expand CTB System and Science Support Teams, and Visiting Scientist Program

– Develop meaningful partnerships with various NOAA line offices, other agencies and external stakeholders.

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CTB FRAMEWORKCTB FRAMEWORK

• InfrastructureInfrastructure– Computing Support (1/3rd NOAA “Red” Research Computer)– System and Science Support Teams (models, data, diagnostics)

• Contractors, Technical Assistants, System Administrators– Management and Administrative Staff

• Director, Deputy, Secretary, Program Assistant

• Transition ProjectsTransition Projects– Base (internally) FundedBase (internally) Funded

• Short Term – potential for impact on operations in 2 years or less• FTE’s reallocated from NCEP and other line offices

– Announcements of OpportunityAnnouncements of Opportunity• Long term – potential for impact on operations in 2 or more years• Projects are reviewed, competitive, community wide, broader science issues• NOAA or external lead PIs• Multi-agency (NOAA, NASA, DOE, etc)

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CURRENT CTB RESOURCESCURRENT CTB RESOURCES

• NCEP ContributionsNCEP Contributions

– Computing Support (1/3 of the NOAA Red Computer)

– 23 Redirected FTEs

• Management Team – 0.5 (CPC) & 0.25 (EMC) & 0.25 (CPC)

• System Support Team (data, software) – 4 (CPC) & 0.5 (EMC)

• Science Support (Transition Project Teams) – 16 (CPC) & 4 (EMC)

• NOAA Climate Program OfficeNOAA Climate Program Office

– Augmentation funding for CTB Infrastructure (System Support TA in FY05, FY06); Additional funding for near term and competitive transition projects.

– CDEP/CTB AO-driven competitive science projects (FY06+)

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CTB CURRENT AND FUTURE CTB CURRENT AND FUTURE TRANSITION PROJECTS TRANSITION PROJECTS

• Current (FY05 and FY06) – “Short Term plans”Current (FY05 and FY06) – “Short Term plans”

– Assessments of the Current Version of NCEP CFS/GFS

– Objective Model Consolidation for Generating Official Forecasts

– Development of a Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System (Set up GFDL S/I hindcast system on NCEP computer; reproducibility tests)

• Future (FY07 +) – “Long Term plans”Future (FY07 +) – “Long Term plans”

– Assessments of the Next (n+1) Version of NCEP CFS/GFS

– Development of a Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System

– Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System

– Drought Monitoring and Prediction – Support NIDIS

– Development of Regional Application Products (e.g. Energy, Agriculture, Water, Fire Wx)

– Advanced Forecast Capabilities (e.g. Ecosystems; Air Chemistry; Carbon Cycle; Fisheries)

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ASSESSMENTS OF THE NEXT (n+1) ASSESSMENTS OF THE NEXT (n+1) VERSION OF THE CFS/GFS VERSION OF THE CFS/GFS

• Possible Upgrades for the next (n+1) version of CFS/GFS are coming into focus:

– Land: Couple Noah LSM to CFS

– Ocean: MOM4

– Resolution: T126

– Physics: Convective parameterization; Multi-physics ensemble

• Comprehensive diagnostic evaluation of future changes to CFS/GFS are needed prior to implementation.

• Concerted effort to distribute CFS/GFS data sets to the community.

• Caveat: Less emphasis on evaluation of older versions of the CFS/GFS in favor of the newer version(s).  

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DEVELOPMENT OF A MULTI-MODEL DEVELOPMENT OF A MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

• NOAA/CTB is a natural lead to develop the strategy for a MM Ensemble Prediction System.

• CTB can coordinate "National" models that contribute to accelerated improvements in S/I climate predictions and projections, both in real-time products and with research that contributes to the CCSP and IPCC.

“National” models are global ocean-atmosphere coupled models:

• NCEP/CFS• GFDL/CM2• NASA/GEOS 5• NSF/CCSM

• CTB can coordinate with any of several Multi-Model projects around the world (e.g. European Euro-SIP and the Asian APCC).

• The roles and responsibilities of the host institutions and the operational center(s) must be clearly spelled out, commensurate with resources, to ensure smooth transitions.  

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ONGOING ANALYSIS OF THE ONGOING ANALYSIS OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEMCLIMATE SYSTEM

• CTB can promote and coordinate synthesis of ongoing (oceanic, terrestrial and atmospheric) reanalysis activities within NOAA, across agencies and internationally.

• Benefits:

– NOAA Can take full advantage of established CTB infrastructure (e.g. SAB, OB, teams, computer).

– Can coordinate and provide resources for (long term, AO-driven, community-wide) projects on broader issues related to climate reanalysis that contribute to improved understanding of climate variability and change and enhance climate prediction.

• Management:

– Project Manager for Interagency Coordination and a Program Manager to coordinate reanalysis activities within NOAA, across agencies, and internationally.

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DROUGHT MONITORING AND DROUGHT MONITORING AND

PREDICTIONPREDICTION

Proposal: Designate the GAPP Core Project and its external R&D collaborators as Proposal: Designate the GAPP Core Project and its external R&D collaborators as the “Climate Process Team” for Land on the CTBthe “Climate Process Team” for Land on the CTB

Activities:Activities:

• Couple Noah LSM to T126 version of CFS; Calibrate

• Multi-Model Ensembles for Hydrologic Forecasts

• Development of a Drought Early Warning System.

• Benefits:Coordinate with Operational Drought Monitoring and Prediction Support NIDISConsistent with NWS Integrated Water Science Plan

CTB ORGANIZATIONCTB ORGANIZATION

DirectorDirector Higgins (CPC)

DeputiesDeputies Pan (EMC) & Gelman (CPC)

Program ManagerProgram ManagerJi (OGP)

Test Bed UsersTest Bed Users

Science / Software Support from

Contractors; TA’s, SA’s

Oversight BoardOversight BoardCPC CDC EMC GFDL IRI NCPO

Climate Science TeamClimate Science TeamEMC CPC CDC GFDL NASA NCAR

OST OCCWS COLA IRIEMC GFDL CPC CDC (Focal Points)

Science Advisory

Board

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TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR OB, CST, AND SABOB, CST, AND SAB

• Oversight Board (OB):Oversight Board (OB):

– Makes recommendations to Directors of NOAA Climate Office and NCEP Makes recommendations to Directors of NOAA Climate Office and NCEP concerning the CTB activities.concerning the CTB activities.

• Climate Science Team (CST):Climate Science Team (CST):

– Guides CTB activities at the working level; evaluates results of CTB activities; Guides CTB activities at the working level; evaluates results of CTB activities; makes recommendations to the CTB management on computing resource usage and makes recommendations to the CTB management on computing resource usage and accessaccess

• Science Advisory Board (SAB):Science Advisory Board (SAB):

– Works with the broader climate community to provide “independent” expert advice Works with the broader climate community to provide “independent” expert advice on high-priority scientific challenges; coordinates with other programs on high-priority scientific challenges; coordinates with other programs (e.g., CLIVAR, GEWEX)(e.g., CLIVAR, GEWEX)

• Complete ToR and Responsibilities are on the CTB Website: Complete ToR and Responsibilities are on the CTB Website: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctbhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctb

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CTB FY05 ACCOMPLISHMENTSCTB FY05 ACCOMPLISHMENTS

• Q1 – Annual Operating Plan (4 CTB NTOP’s)

• Q1 – CFS Assessment Meeting (WWB/NCEP, November 16, 2004)

Established 7 CTB Transition Project Teams:

Model parameterization,

Model sensitivity

Assessments

Climate data assimilation (ocean and land)

Multi-model ensembles

Climate products and applications

• Q2 – Initiated CTB Infrastructure (System and Science Support Teams)

• Q2 – Established OB, CST and SAB

• Q2 – Implemented CTB website

• Q2 – CTB ToR , “White Paper” and Transition to Operations Plan

• Q3 – CDEP / CTB Competitive Transition Projects AO

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CTB MILESTONES (FY06)CTB MILESTONES (FY06)

• CTB Science Priorities and Transition Plan (2nd Draft)

• Support external CTB users to the extent resources are available

• Set up GFDL S/I hindcast system on NCEP computer and begin to test reproducibility of data compared to runs on GFDL computer

• Complete availability of twice-daily CFS data on publicly accessible server

• Upgrade the seasonal forecast consolidation tool to improve its use of skill information

• Contribute to Science and Implementation Plan for ongoing analysis of the climate system

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CTB PROVISIONAL CTB PROVISIONAL MILESTONES (FY07-FY11)MILESTONES (FY07-FY11)

• Assessment of next version of the NCEP CFS/GFS

• Complete experimental testing of tier-1 multi-model ensemble forecast system (EMC+GFDL)

• Transition NASA model to CTB

• Transition CCSM (NCAR) model to CTB

• Complete experimental testing of tier-1 multi-model ensemble forecast system (EMC+GFDL+CCSM+NASA)

• Drought monitoring and seasonal prediction for NIDIS with multi-models via NLDAS

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The CTB “Message”The CTB “Message”

The NOAA CTB will:The NOAA CTB will:

• Enhance a cooperative partnership between NOAA operational and research centers and the broader external research and applications communities by providing an operational testing facility that facilitates smooth transitions.

• Deliver opportunities for goal directed research using the Climate Forecast System, other climate models, and a state of the art multi-model ensemble approach to improving climate prediction.

• Accelerate the transition of research advances into enhanced NOAA operational climate forecasts, products and applications.

• Increase the range and scope of applications, and the economic benefit, of operational climate forecasts for policy-making and decision-making by end users.

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11stst CTB ANNUAL MEETING CTB ANNUAL MEETING OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVES

– Engage the community in a discussion of CTB progress and plans;

– Discuss & improve the strategy for collaboration with the community;

– Gather independent expert advice on future CTB science priorities.

Overall Goal: to help focus the community towards the CTB mission and objectives

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11stst CTB ANNUAL MEETING CTB ANNUAL MEETING AGENDAAGENDA

– Oral Sessions ( 6-30 minute talks each)

• Climate Model Assessments (CFS/GFS) (Mon AM)

• Multi Model Ensembles (Mon PM)

• Climate Forecasts and Applications (Tue AM)

– Poster Session (Mon AM)

– Science Advisory Board / Oversight Board Meeting (Mon PM)

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EXPECTED OUTCOMEEXPECTED OUTCOME

– Independent expert advice on CTB FY07+ Science Priorities (SAB written Summary Report)

– Update CTB “Science Priorities and Transition Plan” (CTB Management)

– CTB Annual Report (CTB Management)

– Provide guidance to participating agencies and institutions