climate change and climate variability : bangladesh perspectives

Climate Change and Developing Countries 14 June, 2007

Climate Change and Climate Variability

: Bangladesh Perspectives

Ainun Nishat Ph.D.

Country RepresentativeIUCN-Bangladesh Country Office


Introduction

• What is projected to happen and adverse impacts that we are facing in Bangladesh.

• What are common peoples’ perceptions in Bangladesh.

• Responses of Bangladesh to Climate Change Regime.


Some Definitions……

Climate Change: any change in climate over time.

Climate variability: variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales. Adaptation is a process to cope with the changing environment..

Mitigation is interventions to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.


Projected rise in surface temperature

Source: IPCC 2001


Is Climate Change real …..?

• IPCC TAR 2001: The Earth’s Climate system has demonstrably changed on both global and regional scales since the pre-industrial era. The just-released IPCC-FAR(2007), confirms that Climate change is due to increase in concentration of GHGs.

• Stern Review ( 2007) : ‘poorest countries and people will suffer earliest and most’.

• Carbon dioxide concentrations, globally averaged surface temperature, and sea level are projected to increase under all IPCC emissions scenarios during the 21st Century.

• CO2 emission has increased from 280 ppm before industrial revolution to about 380 ppm now. It may reach 800+ ppm by end of this century.

• Climate change and climate variability are now real and a stable situation is not likely to be achieved soon.


The globally averaged surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8 ºC over the period 1990 to 2100. Scientists worry as they can not predict as to what will happen if it goes above 2 ºC.

Global mean sea level is projected to rise by 0.09 to 0.88 m between the years 1990 and 2100.

Globally averaged annual precipitation is projected to increase during the 21st Century.

Glaciers and ice caps are projected to continue their widespread retreat during the 21st Century. Dry season flows of river will shrink in future.

Likely Impacts


Dry seasons will have less rainfall. There will be an increase in irrigation water demand unless offset by diversification with dry-foot crops.

There will be erratic behavior of weather.

Forests will be affected as climate changes and plants will need time to adjust.

Flora and fauna and their inter-relationship will be in jeopardy. Many species will disappear, many will face problems in surviving.

Drought tolerant, saline tolerant and submergence tolerant varieties of crops will be required to cope.

Likely Impacts…..


Likely Impacts ……

Vulnerability to both flood and drought will increase. River flooding may increase in duration. Flash flooding will

be more frequent. Short duration rainfalls may create drainage congestions specially in urban areas.

A sea level rise of 0.5m by 2050 will cause low lying coastal areas to go under water. Small island states may disappear. It will also exacerbate drainage congestion in the coastal plains.

Frequency of tropical cyclones will increase. Storm surge depths will increase.


Who are Responsible?

• Developed countries for the historical emission (upto 1990)– USA 36.1%– 15 EC member States 24.2%– Russia 17.4%– Japan 8.5%– Poland 3.0%.

• Share of big developing countries gradually increasing: Middle East, 85.2%, Asia 78.1%, China (incl. Hong Kong ) 44.5% respectively above 1990 level.

• China may over take USA by 2025 in GHG emission. India will be one of the major emitter in another 10 years.


IPCC-III scenario for Bangladesh


LOCAL LEVEL CONSULTATIVE MEETINGS

Assessment of any indication of climate variations;

Issues and concerns resulting from climate variability;

Local knowledge and / or practices that may be adopted in adaptation to climate change;

Level of current awareness on issues pertinent to water and climatic variability;

Strategy for adaptation to climate change based on a consensus of stakeholders;

Research requirements for adaptation;

Approaches on awareness raising to climate variability issues and adaptations.


Locations of meetings


INDICATORS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AS IDENTIFIED BY STAKEHOLDERS

Excessive rainfall at times, untimely and irregular heavy rain,

Increase in tidal bores, increase in number of cyclonic conditions, variation in tidal flow

Increase in frequency of flash flood,

Temperature variation, change of seasonal cycle, cloudy and cold winter,

increase in droughts and dry spells,

Storms and hailstorms,,

Increased surface temperature,

Intensity of mist/fog increased in the winter.


LEVEL OF CURRENT AWARENESS

• The professionals and practitioners such as journalists, physicians, senior NGO workers and teachers are aware of climatic change related phenomena.

• Farms and non-farm agriculturists are not very much aware of the science and background of the climate change.

• However, they have experienced the effects and vulnerabilities of climatic variability.

• Does people from developed countries have clear understanding about climate change and climate variation?


People’s view:ADAPTATAION TO RAINFALL VARIABILIY

• Collection, preservation and supply of improved local paddy seeds.

• Provide irrigation to protect crop against drought.

• Improvement in drainage system.


People’s view: ADAPTATAION TO TEMPERATURE VARIATION

• Blast resistant variety of potato should be available.

• There should be large-scale plantation and afforestation;

• Integrated pest management (IPM) be widely practiced.

• High temperature and drought tolerant indigenous varieties of crops should be restored and introduced.


People’s view: ADAPTATAION TO INCREASED SALINITY

• To stop intrusion of the tidal water height and width of embankment should be raised;

• Ensure natural flow river.

• There should be a good drainage system in the area.

• Salinity tolerant varieties of plants be introduced.

• Traditional/indigenous saline tolerant varieties of crop should be restored and introduced widely.


People’s view: ADAPTATAION TO CHANGES IN SEASONAL CYCLE

• Information and technology about photo-neutral varieties of crops should be available.

• Forecast about seasonal variation and also forecast on storm, hail storms, flood etc. at the beginning of the each crop season.


People’s view: ADAPTATAION TO FLOODS

• Disaster management training at local level

• Flood management infra-structures be constructed and effectively maintained.

• People be encouraged to adopt with alternative professions and they should be given skill development training.

• Health related information should be provided and improved health services.Mobile medical service should be available. Special health services for newborn and pregnant mothers should be ensured.


People’s view: ADAPTATAION TO STORM SURGES AND CYCLONES

• Local voluntary organizations should be strengthened

• Coastal afforestation program should be strengthened. The Sundarbans should be preserved and protected. Creation of reserved forest.

• More cyclone shelter should be constructed.

• Arrangement of proper and accurate weather forecast. Special arrangement should be taken to disseminate weather information.


People’s view: ADAPTATAION TO INCREASE IN DROUGHT

• Support should be available for excavation and re-excavation of canals and water bodies.

• Afforestation and plant protection program should be enhanced.

• Major irrigation program should be initiated.


People’s view: ADAPTATAION TO SEA LEVEL RISE

• All existing coastal polders be raised and repaired; new polders to be constructed in unprotected areas.

• Legal initiatives should be taken to protect embankment.

• Sufficient measures to be taken to improve internal drainage.


People’s view: FUTURE RESEARCH REQUIREMENTS

• Farmers require short period vegetable seeds.

• Innovation of hill friendly seeds that require no ploughing.

• Innovation of drought resistant variety of wheat and rice.

• Innovation of salinity and flood resistant variety of rice.

• Research needed to innovate photo-neutral variety of vegetables and rice.

• Adaptation strategies should be based on local knowledge and local participation.


Vulnerabilities

Physical Vulnerability Context

Extreme Temperat

ure

Sea Level Rise Drought Flood Cyclone and

Storm Surges

Erosion Sectoral Vulnerability Context

River Flood

FlashFlood

Coastal Inundation

Salinity Intrusion

+++ ++ +++ +++ +++ ++ +++ - Crop Agriculture

++ + + ++ ++ + + - Fisheries

++ ++ +++ + + + +++ - Livestock

+ ++ - - ++ + + +++ Infrastructure

++ +++ ++ - ++ + ++ - Industries

+++ +++ +++ + ++ + + - Biodiversity

+++ + +++ ++ ++ - ++ - Health

- - - - + + +++ +++ Human Settlement

++ + - + + - + - Energy


Vulnerabilities: Livelihood

Adjustment mechanism

such as migration

Regional distribution ofglobal output

NutritionTrade

Gender differentiatedimpacts

Regional dimensionscoastal and inland

Health

Food security

Disasters

Infrastructure

Industry

Agriculture

Poor and non poor

Trend and suddenshocks

Climate changeimpact

Livelihood impact throughEmployment, income, consumption changes


Vulnerabilities

Climate and Related Elements Most Impacted Sectors

Temperature rise and drought • Agriculture (crop, livestock, fisheries), • Water• Energy• Health

Sea Level Rise and Salinity Intrusion

• Agriculture (crop, fisheries, livestock)• Water (water logging, drinking water, urban)• Human settlement• Energy• Health

Floods • Agriculture (crop, fisheries, livestock)• Water (urban, industry)• Infrastructure• Human settlement• Health• Disaster• Energy

Cyclone and Storm Surge • Marine Fishing• Infrastructure• Human settlement• Life and property

Drainage congestion • Water • Agriculture (crop)


Global Responses

• The international political response to climate change began with adoption of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) in 1992.

• Calls for all signatories including developing countries:– to develop their inventories of GHG emission;– formulate and implement national and regional programs related to

mitigation and adaptation;– Promote and cooperate in development, application, diffusion, including

transfer of technologies aimed at GHG emission reduction;– Promote sinks of Green House Gases;– Cooperate in adaptation to impacts of climate change;– Promote and cooperate in increasing the scientific understanding and in

education training and awareness raising.

• These initiatives should be reflected in National Communications. Annex-1 countries have prepared 4th Communication, developing countries have submitted 1st Communication.


Goals set out in 1992 through UNFCCC

• Stabilize the GHG concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climatic system- prevention is out of question now.

• Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow– To allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change.– To ensure that food production is not threatened, and – To enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable

manner.


Global Response (cont...)

• Parties to the UNFCCC adopted the Kyoto Protocol (KP) with the unprecedented, legally enforced ambition of limiting and reducing the greenhouse gas emissions.– Annex-I countries have a target to bring down the GHG emission,

individually or jointly, by at least by 5%below 1990 levels in the first commitment period of 2008 to 2012.

– Countries are to make demonstrable progress in achieving their commitments by 2005.

– Is it happening? --- No.– Negotiation for post 2012 period has already been initiated.


Priority issues in Adaptation

• Mainstreaming climate change in the National Policy & Development Planning

• Capacity development in – science, impacts and adaptation assessment– prediction of climate risks– Preparation and implementation of CDM projects that have

common issues with Mitigation.– Agriculture sector to raise adaptive capacity for sustainable

livelihood– international negotiation & climate diplomacy

• GO/NGO collaboration on collaborative research & community based adaptation activities


• A strong compliance regime is required. A deeper emission cut is needed.

• Larger alliance among developing countries on post Kyoto situation.

• Additional funds commitment for adaptation needs

• Binding adaptation funds

• Technology transfer at an affordable price

Some Current Negotiation Issues at Some Current Negotiation Issues at global levelglobal level


Where are our concerns

• North:Sea level riseSnow melting and dry ski-

slopesFloodsHurricanes and typhoonsHealth issues

MalariaHeat waves

Reduction of green house gas emission level

Compromise with life style versus capacity to cope

with future disasters

• SouthFood SecurityDisaster managementUrban drainage problemsImprovement in flood and

cyclone forecasting and warning dissemination

Understanding impact on ecosystem

Improvements in water management including resolution of trans-boundary waters.

Salinity increase and sea level rise

Question of future survival


THANK YOU

climate change and climate variability : bangladesh perspectives

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