PHILIPPINE WOMENS UNIVERSITYMASTER OF SCIENCE IN ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT

Subject: Participatory Rapid Appraisal with Climate ChangePaper #3

RICHARD J. DEVESFRUTO Submitted to: Prof Gia Ibay

Climate change is defined as a statistically significant change in climate

characteristics over a period of time (Winstanley, 2007). Significant change was

stressed in this definition because changes in the climate cannot be summarized by just

once instance or one catastrophe for that matter and say that it happened because of

climate change. The term “climate change” can only be utilized if the findings presented

wherein the variables are

characterized by a fairly smooth

continuous increase or decrease of

the average value during the period

of record (University Corporation

for Atmospheric Research, n.d.)

and measured from one 30-year

period to another, from one century

to another, or from one millennium

to another. Furthermore, there can’t be a climate change over less than a 30-year

period, as stressed by Winstansley (2007). Needless to say, we cannot simply draw a

conclusion about climate change based on a single observation, say outpours of heavy

rain during summer.

Climate variability on the other hand are variations of ups and downs in climatic

conditions on time scales of months, decades, centuries, and millennia. Relating to

climate change, climate variability provides the data wherein it shows month-to-month

or year-to-year fluctuations around the normal value. While climate change are

observed data over a period of time.

THE PRESENT STATE (CONDITION) OF ZAMBALES AND ITS VULNERABILITIESThe Zambales coastline is most famous for its sandy beaches and deep blue sea

teeming with coral reefs (Department of Tourism, 2009), the entire stretch of the province on the west is rimmed by the crystal clear water of vast China Sea. But despite of this, Zambales is not disaster-proof and may also be prone to the effects of climate change like flooding, landslides, and earthquakes. The following figures show the vulnerability of Zambales to such threats:

Figure 1

Figure 1. Proportion of households which reported an increase in the sea level in Olongapo City by barangay.

Figure 2 Risk to Projected Temperature

Increase. Although it shows that the

Projected Temperature Increase in

Zambales is Very Low, the surrounding

provinces have low to medium temperatures

and would still vary in the years to come.

(Figure courtesy of Center for Environmental

Geomatics - Manila Observatory)

Figure 3 Risk to Projected Rainfall. In

connection with Figure 4 which shows

the risk to typhoons, Figure 3 shows

that there is high to very high risk to

projected rainfall change in the province

of Zambales. (Figure courtesy of

Center for Environmental Geomatics -

Manila Observatory).

Figure 4 Risk to Typhoons. It shows that

Zambales has a high to very high risk to

typhoon which would or might lead to risk in

flooding as well. (Figure courtesy of Center

for Environmental Geomatics - Manila

Observatory).

Showing the vulnerability of this part of Zambales to climate changes like

increase in temperature or risk to projected rainfall only shows that whether we like it or

not, this will come anyhow. For Figure 3 which shows the risk to projected rainfall, will

cause more flooding as evident in the data shown in Figure 1 which shows the reported

increase in sea level in a particular place in Zambales which is Olongapo City. With the

changes currently happening – seasons that are shifting, temperatures increasing, and

sea levels rising, truly, the changes in our climate simply could not be ignored.

IMPACTS

1. On health Risks of heat-related illness would come into picture like heat exhaustion and heat

stroke as temperatures increase specially during summer. Heat stroke is a medical

condition wherein the body temperature reaches 40 degrees Celsius due to constant

heat exposure.

Scientists have related the deadly heat waves to climate change.

Aside from heat-related illness, climate change may increase the spread of infectious

diseases, mainly because warmer temperatures allow disease-carrying insects, animals

and microbes to survive in areas where they were once thwarted by cold weather.

Diseases and pests that were once limited to the tropics — such as mosquitoes that

carry malaria — may find hospitable conditions in new areas that were once too cold to

support them.

2. On country’s economy In a report by Abano (2014), reported that Asia, which includes the Philippines,

experienced the highest number of weather- and climate-related disasters in the world

during the period from 2000-2008 and suffered huge economic losses, accounting for

the second highest proportion (27.5%) of the total global economic loss.

Typhoons affect the Philippines economy significantly. Day to day business is

affected and investors avoid setting up business in the affected areas for fear of losing

their property and business assets.

3. Storms, hurricanes and tropical storms to become more intenseResearch indicates that climate change will cause tropical storms to become

more intense — lasting longer, unleashing stronger winds, and causing more damage to

coastal ecosystems and communities.

Scientists point to higher ocean temperatures as the main culprit, since tropical

storms get their energy from warm water. As sea surface temperatures rise, developing

storms will contain more energy.

At the same time, other factors such as rising sea levels, disappearing wetlands,

and increased coastal development threaten to intensify the damage caused by tropical

storms.

4. On agriculture and food securityThe impacts of climate change on food production and food security in the

Philippines will vary by region especially where drought or fewer rainfall is being

experienced like in some parts of Mindanao, so it expected to see a decline in food

productivity specially the production of rice and corn and other important agricultural

products.

5. On Human Settlements, Industry and InfrastructureClimate change will multiply and underscore the causes of rapid urbanization,

industrialization, and economic development. Climate change is expected to adversely

affect the undertaking of the government in its developmental efforts as it will increase

the pressure on the use natural resources and the environment.

-0-

In the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),

which apparently leaked and set the Philippines and other parts of Asia in a bad

scenario, will most likely experience an alarming and devastating impacts as it presents

a growing threat of climate change and on how human and natural systems are

expected to address the widespread and consequential impacts.

With this, the Philippines should take drastic actions with the variabilities in the

climate coming out and being felt in the rest of the country in order to mitigate and

lessen the impacts these will cause.

Sources:

http://www.miseagrant.umich.edu/downloads/climate/11-703-Climate-Variability-and-Climate-Change.pdf

http://www.ucar.edu/learn/1_2_2_9t.htm

http://www.mb.com.ph/doh-warns-against-heat-stroke/

http://www.tourism.gov.ph/SitePages/InteractiveSitesPage.aspx?siteID=14

http://environews.ph/climate-change/leaked-un-climate-change-report-paints-grim-picture-for-philippines-rest-of-asia/