nidis upper colorado river basin early warning system, lessons learned and plans moving forward
TRANSCRIPT
Wendy Ryan
Assistant State Climatologist
Colorado Climate Center
Presented to the USDM Forum 2015Reno, NV
2009, we conducted stakeholder interviews to define user needs through the UCRB.
Those interviews helped us shape what a “Drought Early Warning System” would look like and mainly focused on continuous, engaged monitoring.
This monitoring then feeds information directly to the USDM since it is already highly used.
Responses vary by sector and individual user based on “exposure to drought risk”.
Most track widely available data sources at critical times of year.
Remote sensing products not trusted for LOCAL drought monitoring and water management.
Water law, water rights and the prior appropriation doctrine dictates “exposure and potential risk and impacts” for pretty much all surface water users.
River “calls” are the ultimate drought triggers.
Reservoir operators: “Our jobs are easiest during drought, but our critical decisions and errors are made during high flows, affecting our capability to deal with future drought”
Surface Water Interests: “Not worried about a drought until it is a 3-year drought”
USDM is popular, but used to assess drought in OTHER areas.
Users want more data all in one place “one stop shopping” More SNOTEL Better gages on unmanaged, representative streams.
Users want better long range forecasts (2 years) with skill.
Different sectors have their own “drought triggers” Lake Dillon reservoir levels:
Only depleted during very dry periods.
Colorado River summer water temperatures
Springtime dryness east of divide means greater demand for west slope water.
Forest and range conditions.
VegDri – 8 July 2012
CCC and other local agencies provide updates on current conditions.
USGS puts streamflow data into context.
NWS provides weather forecasts
Regional experts provide less frequent, but desirable updates.
CBRFC provides water supply and peak flow forecasts.
Klaus Wolter provides long range climate outlooks.
Weekly assessments are emailed, during critical times of year more frequent webinars are held.
Starting to ramp up monitoring efforts now given current conditions.
Content is dynamic and focuses on main elements given the time of year
Winter – snowpack vs. Summer – evapotranspiration
15-20 participants, but can increase with drought severity.
High Park Fire Started 6/9/12
FSA input was invaluable for assessing ground conditions. Dedicated to the calls as the growing season got worse. Pasture and range updates, status of crops and winter
wheat planting (or not planting), updates on prevented and failed acres.
NWS offices are also dedicated to our calls and even took it upon themselves to develop a “Forecast rotation” as the weekly updates went on.
The calls bring the right people together to discuss current conditions and tie all that information into the USDM. Since the USDM is used for disaster declarations,
everyone has a vested interest in getting it right.
NIDIS conducted an evaluation of the UCRB DEWS here are the key findings: Need to expand demographic coverage – low UT/WY
participation
Branding and Streamlining – need to differentiate NIDIS, NIDIS DEWS, Drought Portal, etc.
Targeted Education – educate participants on products used and highlight their usability for planning
Information at finer spatial resolution – difficult given current datasets and resources, but VegDri has become very popular.
Strategic Plan – we need one to guide decision making, operations and evaluations.
Evaluation metrics – start tracking this early in order to evaluate how you’re doing later.
Our thinking is this should be implemented at the NIDIS level so evaluation is uniform across all DEWS
Develop Risk Assessment and Engage Preparedness community
Preparedness community has their own protocols, but we need to bring them into our work
Identify Services Overlap
i.e. WWA climate dashboard has many similarities, with less frequent commentary on conditions.
Currently working on targeted educational materials. Education by sector
Work to bring other NIDIS research into operational use Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) from Mike
Hobbins, etc.
Assist with Drought Portal content and development.
Work with the Missouri Basin DEWS for Eastern Colorado and further understand strengths/weaknesses of political vs. geographic boundaries.
• In addition to educational materials by sector, CoCoRaHS-like animations will be developed.
• Working on a page of “What does drought look like” using Colorado Drought Impact Reports and CoCoRaHS photos.
Adding educational references to our drought monitoring page to better explain content.
ccc.atmos.colostate.edu/~drought
• Add “?” info button to each product that will pull up a description and how to interpret each product.
?
Snotel precipitation percentiles are used to understand how the current
water year precipitation falls in relation to the stations historic data. Precipitation accumulation for any given day is sorted low to high and
given a numerical rank. The percentile (P) indicates the percentage
of all the data that falls below that particular value. For example, the 25th percentile only has 25% of the data below that value (meaning it’s
on the drier end). The 75th percentile has 75% of the data below that value
(meaning it’s on the wet end).
Example of EDDI for June 17, 2014
Still learning how to use and present this information for users and decision makers.
Our Agricultural ET weather network is expanding! Received 150K from
state funds, should be an annual allocation.
Beginning collaborations with USBR AgrimetNetwork for QC and station maintenance.
New station are mostly part of UCRB consumptive use study for USBR operations.
Water balance scheduling tool designed to be simple and flexible
Utilizes CoAgMet, NCWCD and NOAA weather data
Soils extracted from NRCS SURGO
Set up via PC or tablet
Updates via APPs
Limited availability in 2015
Account set up at: www.erams.com
My last day will be May 13th, but it’s been great working with you all!
CCC will be hiring a new CoAgMet manager soon, so send qualified candidates our way!
