climate review 2014-15 and nidis update

Climate Review 2014-15 and NIDIS Update

Kelly T. Redmond

Regional Climatologist

Western Regional Climate Center

Desert Research Institute

Reno Nevada

U.S. Drought Monitor Forum

Northern Nevada Science Center

Desert Research Institute

14-16 April 2015

Note:

These presentations are typically posted online after the meeting.

Thus, some slides intended for more detailed inspection may be skipped

or glossed over.

During the last year .....

Borrowing the phraseology of Steven Johnson,

Percent of Average Precipitation

Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014

Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014

Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015

Mean Temperature Departure from Normal

Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014

Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014

Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015

Looking backward through the rear view mirror: Precipitation and Temperature ending 10 April 2015.

Percent of Average Precipitation Temperature Departure from Average

April to date Calendar Year to date April to date Calendar Year to date

Water Year to date Past 365 days Water Year to date

Past 730 days Past 1095 days

Precipitation Percentiles for Past 3, 4, 5, 6 Years, through March 2015.

36 months - 3 years 48 months - 4 years

60 months - 5 years 72 months - 6 years

Water Year2010-1101 Oct 2010Thru30 Sep 2011

Water YearTo Date2014-1501 Oct 2014Thru11 April 2015

Oct 1 - Apr 11 Water Year to Date 2014-2015 Oct 1 - Apr 11

Precipitation Percent Temperature Departure (F)

Sep 28, 1999 Sep 26, 2000 Sep 25, 2001

Sep 24, 2002 Sep 30, 2003 Sep 21, 2004

Sep 27, 2005 Sep 26, 2006 Sep 25, 2007

Sep 30, 2008 Sep 29, 2009 Sep 28, 2010

Sep 28, 2010 Sep 27, 2011 Sep 26, 2012

Sep 24, 2013 Sep 30, 2014 Apr 7, 2015

Nevada StatewideTemperature

AnnualCalendar Year

1895-2014

Nevada Climate Tracker

Nevada StatewideTemperature

Water Yearto Date

Oct-Mar

1895-96 thru

2014-15

Nevada StatewidePrecipitation

Water YearOct-Sep

1895-96thru

2013-14

NevadaClimate Tracker

NevadaPrecipitation

Snow Season

Oct-Mar

1895-96thru

2014-15


Sierra NevadaPrecipitation

Water Year

Oct-Sep

1895-96thru

2013-14

CaliforniaClimate Tracker


Snow Season

Oct-Mar

1895-96thru

2014-15


Oct-MarPrecipitation

Rank

1895-96Thru

2014-15

Lowest 10 %

RecordDriest

8-Station IndexPrecipitation

Wettest (1982-83)

2010-11

2012-132011-12

2014-152013-14

Two driest years,( 1976-77, 1923-24 )

CA - DWR


Wettest (1982-83)

2010-11

2012-132011-12

2013-142014-15

Two driest years,( 1976-77, 1923-24 )

CA - DWR


Wettest (1968-69)

2012-132013-142014-15

Driest year( 1976-77 )

CA - DWR

Winter SeasonSnow Water

Content

1982-83 wettest

Average

2013-14

2014-15

1976-77 driest

Cal DWR

NorthernSierra

Central Sierra

SouthernSierra

Snow Depth. Central Sierra Snow Lab. Donner Summit. Low Snow Winters.Thru Feb 23. Courtesy Randall Osterhuber.

100

80

60

40

20

0

inches cm

15-Year Mean Sierra Snow Water Equivalent 2015 March 29

Noah Molotch - NASA/JPL

2015 March 29 Sierra Snow Water Equivalent 2014 March 23

Noah Molotch - NASA/JPL

Snotel Basin-Average

Water Year Precipitation

2014 Oct 1 thru 2015 Apr 12

SnotelBasin-Averaged

Snow Water Equivalent

2015 April 12

The Great Snow Drought of 2014-15Precipitation Snowpack

Western USTemperaturePercentiles

Water Year To Date

Oct 2014 thru

Mar 2015

Reference Period

120 Years1895-2015

WestWideDroughtTracker

UpdatedMonthly

WRCC

Tmax

Tmin

Tave

Oct-March Temperature.11 western contiguous states.From Westmap (PRISM values).1895-96 thru 2014-15.

1900 2010

1900

1900 2010

2010

Select: Lamoille area, Monthly values, Temperature 0 C, 9-year running mean.

Western Regional Climate Center

Oct-Mar Freezing Level Near Ruby Mountains, Nevada. 1948-49 thru 2014-15

Oct-Mar Freezing Level Over Lake Tahoe. 1948-49 thru 2014-15

South Lake TahoeKelly Redmond 20150216

Mono Lake and Yosemite, SWE ~18 %Kelly Redmond 20150216

Death Valley and Telescope Peak. Kelly Redmond 20150220

Telescope Peak, Badwater, Death Valley. Kelly Redmond 20150317

Mt Charleston. Kelly Redmond 20150315

Wheeler PeakKelly Redmond 20150216

Boise looking NKelly Redmond 20150216

Lake Powell Storage Through April 10, 2015

Currently 45 % full (capacity 24.17 MAF)

Minimum: 33 % full on April 8, 2005

Lake Powell Elevation Through April 10, 2015

Water level on April 10, 2015 was 3590.95 ft, -109 ft below full. Minimum level on April 8, 2005 was 3555 ft, -145 ft below full.Source: www.usbr.gov/uc/water/index.htl

From: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

2015 April 1

Apr-Jul FlowForecast:March 1:

71 % of medianApril 1:

52 % of median

Higher flows Jan-Mar on

many streams,with early meltout.

3 of 15 past years above

averageinflow.

Marina, Overton, Lake Mead.Kelly Redmond 20150220

Lake Mead. Kelly Redmond 20150220

Kelly Redmond 20150329

Outlet of Lake Tahoe. Oct 2011 thru Mar 2015. Courtesy Chris Smallcomb, Reno NWS.

Oct11 Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Mar15

Sierra Nevada 4 Winters Oct 2011 - Mar 2015 Cumulative Precipitation Deficits

North: 8-station index 22 % deficit (1 yr)

Central: 5-station index 45 % deficit (2 yrs)

South: 6-station index 45 % deficit (2 yrs)

NWS Sacramento

The Missing Years:Precipitation Deficits Over the Past Four Winters

Expressed in Units of Average Annual Precipitation.Based on PRISM. Courtesy Paul Iniguez, NWS Phoenix.

Number of years

Excess

Deficit

+2

+1

0

-1

-2

Elevation of Lake Tahoe at Tahoe City 2011 Oct 01 - 7 April 2015

Natural Rim

March 25, 2015

RAWSSnotel

WeatherCoder III

How to ImproveGreat Basin

Climate Monitoring? ? ?

NIDIS Update (with a lotta help from Veva Deheza)

Veva Deheza

Deputy Director NOAA / NIDIS

National Integrated Drought Information System

NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

Photo: Cimarron County (Oklahoma) Conservation District, January 2014

69

National Integrated Drought Information System

Public Law 109-430 (The NIDIS Act 2006)

““Enable the Nation to move from a reactive to Enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive approach to managing a more proactive approach to managing drought risks and impactsdrought risks and impacts””

(www.drought.gov)(www.drought.gov)

“No systematic collection and analysis of social, environmental, and economic data focused on the impacts of drought within

the United States exists today” Western Governors Association 2004

“better informed and more t imely drought-related decisions leading to reduced impacts and costs”

Three tasks under the NIDIS Act (PL 109-430)

(I) Provide an effective drought early warning system: (a) collect and integrate key indicators of drought severity and impacts; (b) produce timely information that reflect local, regional, and state differences

(II) Coordinate and integrate as practicable, federal research in support of a drought early warning system

(III) Build upon existing forecasting and assessment programs and partnerships

70

“Today, I signed the National Integrated Drought Information System Reauthorization Act into law. To complement the National Integrated Drought Information System, as part of my Climate Action Plan, federal agencies have also formed a National Drought Resilience Partnership to help communities better prepare for droughts in the long term, and prevent the worst impacts on families and businesses” March 6, 2014. President Obama

H.R. 2431, the "National Integrated Drought Information System Reauthorization Act of 2014,” authorizes appropriations for NIDIS through FY 2018 and requires NOAA to report to Congress on the implementation of the NIDIS

NIDIS reauthorized by Congress in 2014

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)Enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive Enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive

approach to managing drought risks and impacts (NIDIS Act 2006)approach to managing drought risks and impacts (NIDIS Act 2006)

drought.gov

NIDIS Partnerships (Federal, States, Tribes, Private)

Monitoring & ForecastingDrought Impacts

Assessments and Scenarios

Communication and Outreach Engaging Preparedness & Adaptation

Drought Early Warning

Information

Systems

74

Drought-based Partnerships and AgreementsHigh-level, formal partnerships

• Commerce and USDA• Sharing of data and information

• Commerce and Western Governors’ Association

• Collaboration on service information needs for climate variability and change

• Commerce and Interior• Coordinate climate-related activities

• Emergency drought relief bill (for California)

• Western Governors’ Association

• Water resources in the West

Also, significant Congressional interest in NIDIS activities

76

Memorandum of Understanding Between the Western Governors' Association

and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Collaboration on Drought, Flooding, and Wildfire Preparedness: Sharing Information and Building Resilience in Planning for Extreme Events

June 9, 2014

Colorado Springs, Colorado

Objectives and Actions The Parties will investigate the interrelationship between drought and wildfire to identify the data, information, and analysis needs – as well as management strategies – that may help Governors and decision-makers better address the impacts associated with these dual disasters. The Parties will explore ways to ensure that collection and sharing of crucial drought, flooding, and extreme weather-related data, impact statistics, and information are improved and sustained. Focal areas may include soil moisture monitoring in the Missouri River Basin and water supply needs assessments, including snowpack monitoring, in the Mountain West and coastal watersheds. This aspect of the MOU calls for close coordination with other federal agencies that have monitoring and analysis responsibilities.

The Parties will conduct a survey of the existing state and territory Drought Task Forces appointed by Governors to (a) identify data gaps as well as potentially useful data, information, and analyses and (b) compare and contrast the approaches of the Task Forces in order to help states and territories learn from one another and better communicate across state boundaries and enhance implementation of drought plans.

Regional Drought Early Warning Systems

California NIDIS Pilot Projects

Southern California Urban Area - Heavily Managed SystemAnne Steinemann, Julie Kalansky

Central Valley - Land FallowingJim Verdin, Forrest Melton

Russian River - Coastal Rain-dominated SystemAlan and Lorrie Flint, Julie Kalansky

Klamath River - Interstate, almost all western water issuesKelly Redmond, Dave Simeral, Mark Deutschmann

Fallowed Area Mapping for

Drought Impact Reporting and Decision Making2014 August 272011 August 27

Idling of land results in detectable change in seasonal NDVI profiles

Mapping of Fallowed Area

2014 California Drought

• 2013 driest calendar year on record

• 2014 was 4th driest Water Year on record

• In 2014, many growers had surface water allocations <10% of full allocation

• 2014 fallow up 40% (500,000 acres) compared to 2011

• 2015 not much better

• Precip is 86% of avg for CY, but only 46% of avg for WY

• Snowpack just 21% of normal

• Reservoirs at 67% of avg statewide

Groundwater changeSpring 2010 to Spring 2014

Regional Drought Early Warning Systems

Working with communities and existing networks through:

Drought assessmentsClimate outlook forumsEducation and outreach webinars – risk managementEngaging the preparedness community

Drought Prediction• Improved prediction capabilities drawing on expertise at

national laboratories and centers and key academic partners• Improved satellite estimates of snow amount for

initialization (e.g., SWE)• Improved satellite estimates of soil moisture for initialization

(expect that from SMAP)• Improved predictions of temperature, precipitation, and

other hydroclimate variables as well as extremes• Increased climate model ensemble size and higher

resolution for better estimates of extremes (changes in the tails of the PDF)

• Understand the role of extreme weather events (drought busters; persistence of large scale circulation patterns) and climate variability

83

Forecasting Drought

• Improve reliability and skill of forecasts including characterization uncertainty and opportunities for conditional skill (conditioned on interannual and decadal variability)

• Improve forecasts of onset and termination (dominant sources of skill and reliability from persistence of conditions and knowledge of antecedent conditions – thus the critical role for monitoring)

• Objective and reproducible NOAA Drought Outlook (National MultiModel Ensemble, NMME)

• Improved identification and use of analog year information

• Advances in Land-Data Assimilation Systems (LDAS)

• Enhanced ENSO Plume Model Forecasts

• Updated Optimal Climate Normals (Temperature & Precipitation)

• Experimental Climate Divisions and Regional Forecasts

84

Ocean Departures from Average Temperature ( C ) 29 Mar - 4 Apr 2015

Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures

Updated through 2014 Mar 29 - Apr 4

Climate Prediction Center

Washington

Arizona

Central Sierra

Redmond & Koch, 1991, updated. ENSOENSO

Redmond & Koch, 1991, updated.

Temperature & PrecipitationOfficial Outlooks

One Month 2015 Three Month

Apr Temp Apr Precip Apr-May-Jun T Apr-May-Jun P

Orange / Red - Higher likelihood of drier than usualGreen - Higher likelihood of wetter than usual

NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Seven experiments in near-term climate forecasting May-Jul 2015. Precipitation.NMME (National Multi-Model Ensemble). IMME (International Multi-Model Ensemble).

DynamicalModels

CFSv2: US Climate Forecasting System version 2CMC1: Canadian Meteorological Center version 1CMC2: Canadian Meteorological Center version 2GFDL: US Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryNCAR: US National Center for Atmospheric ResearchNASA: US National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNMME: National Multi-Model EnsembleIMME: International Multi-Model Ensemble

2015 Apr 7

Six experiments in near-term climate forecasting May-Jul 2015. Temperature.NMME (National Multi-Model Ensemble). IMME (International Multi-Model Ensemble).

DynamicalModels

CFSv2: US Climate Forecasting System version 2CMC1: Canadian Meteorological Center version 1CMC2: Canadian Meteorological Center version 2GFDL: US Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryNCAR: US National Center for Atmospheric ResearchNASA: US National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNMME: National Multi-Model EnsembleIMME: International Multi-Model Ensemble

2015 Apr 7

The First Three Winters of Drought

Likely a 2014-2015 Addendum

Each winter played out differently

Background and thus causes somewhat different each winter

2014-15 cause also likely not identical to previous three winters

Explanations reach to western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans

Not much sign of climate change as a contributor

But, possible harbinger of future droughts:

Not just dry, but extremely warm

The Cycle of Disaster Management

Components of Successful Drought Mitigation Planning

• Monitoring, early warning, and prediction Foundation of a drought mitigation plan Indices/indicators linked to impacts and triggers

• Risk and impact assessment Who and what is at risk and why?

• Mitigation and response Pro-active programs and actions to reduce risks Response actions and programs during droughts

Example: Colorado’s Drought Response Plan consists of four components:MonitoringAssessmentMitigationResponse

The plan has the force and

effect of law as promulgated

by the Governor.

• Streamlined by utilizing the US Drought Monitor as a tool to automatically trigger disaster areas

• Provides for nearly an automatic designation for any county in which drought conditions as rptd in the USDM meet a drought intensity of D2 (severe) for 8 consecutive weeks

• A county with a portion of area in a D3 (extreme) or higher at any time during growing season would be designated as disaster area

As of 2012 – Role of U.S. Drought Monitor in USDA Designation Procedure

March 25, 2015

NDRP Goals

The National Drought Resilience Partnership (NDRP) is dedicated to helping communities better prepare for future droughts and to reducing the impact of drought events on livelihoods and the economy. Through coordinated action, federal agencies provide efficient, effective service to communities.

NDRP’s goal is to make it easier to access Federal drought resources by linking information such as monitoring, forecasts, outlooks, and early warnings with longer-term drought resilience strategies in critical sectors such as agriculture, municipal water systems, energy, recreation, tourism and manufacturing.

100

James VerdinU.S. Geological Survey at NOAA Physical Sciences Division, Boulder

With grateful acknowledgment of:

Roger S. Pulwarty1, NIDIS Director Veva Deheza3, Kathy Bogan3, Lisa Darby2, Chad McNutt1, Claudia Nierenberg1, Kelly Redmond4, Robert Webb2, and many others…

1NOAA/Climate Program Office2NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division3CIRES4Desert Research Institute

An Overview of the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

Developing a Coordinated National Soil Moisture Network:

An Update

Jim Verdin, NIDIS/USGS

January 27, 2015

Developing a Coordinated National Soil Moisture Network

A National Workshop Organized by NIDIS•Kansas City, Missouri - November 13-14, 2013

A gathering of over sixty experts from across the country•Federal, State, and University representatives

Recommendations•Form an Expert Working Group to articulate a Plan of Action•Develop a sub-national pilot system•Develop a nationwide “best available” product by blending data from disparate sources

An Expert Group reviewed and decided to adopt the successful approach taken for developing a plan of action for the National Ground Water Monitoring Network

USDA - Mike StobelNOAA - Bruce Baker

- Brian Cosgrove- Tilden Meyers

USGS - Jessica LucidoTAMU - Steve QuiringNASA - Vanessa Escobar

• System Planning - December 2014

• Start Pilot Development - January 2015

• Submit Midway Progress Report - April 1, 2015

• Development Completed- July 1, 2015

• Demo Pilot - July/August 2015

• Final Project Report - August 31, 2015

Timeline for Soil Moisture Network Pilot Activities

Launched January 31, 2015.Most spin-up operations completed.

For more details about recent NIDIS activities, download newsletter

from drought.gov

Thank You !

Mather RAWS StationGreat Basin Nat Park

DISCARDSand

EXTRASand

ELABORATIONS

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

United States Annual Temperature Departure from 1950-1995 Mean

NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

United States Annual Temperature Departure from 1950-1995 Mean

NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan-Mar

February

Precipitation

Percent of

Average

2014

West WideDroughtTracker

MonsoonSeason

Precipitation Jun-Sep

Percent of

Average

2013



Water Yearto DateOct-Feb

1895-96thru

2013-14



Calendar Yearto DateJan-Dec

1895thru2014


Death Valley. Patrick Redmond. 2015 March 23-29.

Mt Charleston “Snowpack”Kelly Redmond 20150216

Lake Mead. Kelly Redmond 20150220

White Mtn Summit & High SierraKelly Redmond 20150216

20140920 Kelly Redmond

Snotel Basin-Average

Water Year Precipitation

2014 Oct 1 thru 2015 Mar 7

SnotelBasin-Averaged

Snow Water Equivalent

2015 March 7


SummerJun-Aug

1895thru2014


MonsoonSeason

Precipitation Jun-Sep

Percent of

Average

2014
