NIDIS-Supported Efforts in the ACF River Basin

Puneet SrivastavaAssociate Professor

Department of Biosystems EngineeringAuburn University

Chris MartinezAssistant Professor

Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department

University of Florida

Jessica BolsonPost-Doctoral Fellow

Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department

University of Florida

Reducing Drought Risks in the Southeast USA: Quantification of Drought Information Value, Development of Drought Indices, and Communication of Drought InformationPuneet Srivastava (PI), Latif Kalin, Keith Ingram, David Stooksbury, Pam Knox, Jessica Bolson, Muthuvel Chelliah, Richard Marcus, and Matt Dunn

Needs, Uses, Perceptions, and Attitudes towards Weather and Climate Forecast Information by Water Resource Managers in the Southeastern United StatesChris Martinez (PI), Norman Breuer, Jessica Bolson, Jim Jones, David Stooksbury, and Tatiana Borisova

Short-term Stream flow Forecast Using Southeast River Forecast Center’s Ensemble Streamflow Predictions (ESP)Puneet Srivastava (PI), Keith Ingram, Latif Kalin, Todd Hamill, and Muthuvel Chelliah

Three separate objectives

Assess drought-related climate information needs, perceptions, and attitudes of municipal water managers and identify current water supply and drought mitigation policies

Develop a municipal water deficit index (MWDI) and prototype visualization tool for disseminating drought information

Quantify the value of drought information for municipal water managers, and evaluate alternative policies for drought risk reduction

Reducing Drought Risks in the Southeast USA: Quantification of Drought Information Value, Development of Drought Indices, and Communication of Drought Information

Three separate objectives

Assess water resource managers’ needs, uses, perceptions, and attitudes of weather and climate information and identify barriers and opportunities for adoption

Develop regional evaporation forecasts for reservoir managers

Incorporate information on weather and climate variability and change, its potential impacts, and forecast products into educational materials for stakeholders

Needs, Uses, Perceptions, and Attitudes towards Weather and Climate Forecast Information by Water Resource Managers in the Southeastern United States

Stakeholder Assessment-Rationale

• In order to provide usable scientific input into decision making, region and sector specific assessment of stakeholders’ needs is essential

• Relevant forecasts and decision support are those that fit with decisions being made by stakeholders

Stakeholder Assessment- Goals

• Identify needs, uses, and perceptions of weather and climate forecast information by water resource management community

• Establish a dialogue between water resource managers in the ACF and researchers of the SECC

Stakeholder Assessment-Approach

• Web-based internet survey

• Follow-up semi-structured interviews– In person– Phone

• Iterative feedback using tools/forecasts currently under development as examples

Stakeholder Assessment- The Process

• Contact state, regional, and local managers and stakeholders who make decisions on water supply or water resource management or who influence these decisions

• Conduct internet surveys and interviews to identify uses, perceptions, information needs, information gaps, and potential barriers to adoption of forecasts

Stakeholder Assessment- Targeted Participants

• Managers of mid- to large-size public drinking water utility systems in the ACF

• Managers of small scale community water systems in the ACF • Those with influence over water resource decisions in the

states of Alabama, Florida, and Georgia

Stakeholder Assessment-Current status of project

• Developing list of potential participants• Preparing internet survey• Preparing questions for follow-up interviews• Preparing for IRB approval from associated research

institutions

Concurrent assessment and product development

Develop a municipal water deficit index (MWDI) and prototype visualization tool for disseminating drought information

Develop downscaled evapotranspiration forecasts for water resource managers

Solicit feedback on format and presentation of forecasts and verification measures of these products as well as existing forecasts and monitoring products

Evaporation Forecasts using Forecast AnalogsCurrent Forecast

Similar Past Forecasts Past Observations

• NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) 1-15 day• NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) 1-9 month

• Analog forecasts used to produce fine-resolution (32 km) forecasts using past observations

Fine ResolutionProbabilistic Forecast

Municipal Water Deficit Index for Small- to Mid-Size Communities

Drought conditions result in increased demand and decreased supply.

Such fluctuation in climatic conditions may cause short-term failures in the municipal water system.

Focused on small- to mid-size communities relying on surface water systems

More than 75 such communities in the ACF Have similar systems

Reservoir(s), direct withdrawal from streams, withdrawal from stream for storage in reservoir, etc.

Municipal Water Deficit Index for Small- to Mid-Size Communities

Currently available drought information (US Drought Monitor, Lawn and Garden Moisture Index, etc. are not specific to municipal water systems) High spatial variability of the rainfall in the

Southeast Supply and demand not considered Do not forecast

Proposed MWDI will Operate at a high spatial resolution Be web-based Be customizable by municipalities Considers supply and demand, and Forecast based on climate and management

practices

Municipal Water Deficit Index for Small- to Mid-Size Communities

STELLA model using a system dynamics approach for development of the methodology

Auburn, AL and Griffin, GA as case municipalities

Web-based implementation when the methodology has been developed

Municipal Water Deficit Index for Small- to Mid-Size Communities

In the forecast mode, MWDI will include current water availability, forecasted inflows from precipitation and predicted demand for municipal supply.

MWDI calculation using the past dataset for validation with the lake levels/drought occurrences in the past.