foundations for a regional drought early warning system in the missouri river basin

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Foundations for a Regional Drought Early Warning System in the Missouri River Basin Laura Edwards, SDSU Extension © 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University iGrow.org

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Page 1: Foundations for a Regional Drought Early Warning System in the Missouri River Basin

Foundations for a Regional

Drought Early Warning

System in the Missouri River

BasinLaura Edwards, SDSU Extension

© 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University

iGrow.org

Page 2: Foundations for a Regional Drought Early Warning System in the Missouri River Basin

iGrow.org

Geography

© 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University iGrow.org

Page 3: Foundations for a Regional Drought Early Warning System in the Missouri River Basin

iGrow.org

MR annual runoff

© 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University iGrow.org

http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/reports/pdfs/MRIndependentReviewPanel.pdf

Page 4: Foundations for a Regional Drought Early Warning System in the Missouri River Basin

iGrow.org© 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University iGrow.org

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/wwdt/time/

Page 5: Foundations for a Regional Drought Early Warning System in the Missouri River Basin

iGrow.org© 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University iGrow.org

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/wwdt/time/

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iGrow.org

Strong Foundations

© 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University iGrow.org

Monthly climate and drought webinars

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Strong Foundations

© 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University iGrow.org

Quarterly 2-page summaries

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MRB Kick-off meeting

February 27-28, 2014

Nebraska City, NE

~70 attendees from across the basin

Interactive and engaged group!

© 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University iGrow.org

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0%

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Sectors Represented at the Meeting

Page 10: Foundations for a Regional Drought Early Warning System in the Missouri River Basin

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0%

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30%

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Impacted in recentdrought

Could reduce impacts Quantify reduction inimpacts

Assign dollar value toreduction in impacts

Yes

Not sure

No

No Opinion

N/A

Figure 2: Percent who were impacted by drought, felt they could reduce impacts, felt they

could quantify reduction in impacts, and felt they could assign a dollar value to the reduction

in impacts

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World Café

Questions asked:

Research Gaps and Needs

Communication and Information Delivery Needs

What’s Working?

Who’s Missing?

Sectors:

Agriculture

Natural Resource Management

Municipal/Communities and Water Supply

Human Health

Energy

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Common Themes

Good quality data, but need more dense network for

improved monitoring and forecasting

Improve knowledge of interactions of climate and

water systems and ecosystems

Decent large scale conditions, make locally relevant

Many needs in human health arena… starting at

Square 1

© 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University iGrow.org

Research gaps and needs

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Common Themes

Expand drought planning resources and assistance

How to better communicate risk, esp. to urbanites who are removed from decision-making but are impacted

Existing webinars and newsletters, etc. are great; don’t take them away

Don’t focus just on drought… flood and climate extremes in general

Better utilize traditional and social media

Educate health providers on drought-related illnesses

© 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University iGrow.org

Communication and information delivery needs

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iGrow.org

Common Themes

Quarterly basin summary

RCC and SCs as climate data and information

providers

US Drought Monitor

Some great examples of municipal/community-level

water supply planning

Day-to-day management decisions are well

understood

© 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University iGrow.org

What’s working

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Break-out Session

Resources & Strengths

Gaps

Best Potential Outcomes

Metrics: What does success look like in the MRB?

Next Steps

© 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University iGrow.org

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Metrics for Success

Reduced vulnerability/impacts

Improved resources/assistance

Increased drought planning

Increased awareness

Improved Policy

Effective Communication

© 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University iGrow.org

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Next Steps

Listen/Engage

Engage policy-makers

Expand Group

Research

Develop strategic plan

Form working groups

© 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University iGrow.org

ID financial resources

Develop MRB place on

NIDIS website

Communicate

Develop services

Support others

Support Policy

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iGrow.org© 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University iGrow.org

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Drought Portal webpage

© 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University iGrow.org

http://drought.gov/drought/regional-programs/mrb/missouri-river-basin-home

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Tribal-related Activities

© 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University iGrow.org

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iGrow.org© 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University iGrow.org

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Recent follow-up meeting with 4 Kansas tribes in

Lincoln

Building capacity, gaining familiarity w/regional

partners

Finding ways to gain outside support in preparing

tribal resilience to climate extremes

Wind River (WY): working with NC CSC, NDMC to

create DEWS and vulnerability assessment

Rosebud (SD): starting drought planning

© 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University iGrow.org

Other current tribal engagment

activities

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Drought planning efforts in MO

Basin

South Dakota: in revision stage currently, original

drought plan from the 1980s

Kansas: KS Water Office looking at 50 year+ water

plan, focusing on groundwater to surface water

Montana: National Drought Resiliency Partnership,

NIDIS staff participating in watershed planning

© 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University iGrow.org

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Drought (and flood) monitoring

WRDA bill required US Army Corps to increase snow

monitoring and soil moisture measurements

Volunteer “co-op” SWE, twice per month

SD Mesonet adding soil sensors, and more

stations

© 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University iGrow.org

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iGrow.org© 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University iGrow.org

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Facebook: SDSU Climate

Twitter: @SDSUClimate

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Agriculture

Research Gaps and Needs

Soil moisture measuring & monitoring

Understanding and defining decision calendars for ag early warning systems

More support for existing monitoring programs – e.g., NWS coop network, USGS streamflow gauges, etc.

Implications of policy, e.g, Farm Bill, on ag sector practices and behaviors/risks/vulnerabilities

Communication and Information Delivery Needs

Synthesis and Scaling data/information to level of decision or policy maker

Local impacts & U.S. Drought Monitor – two-way information sharing – e.g., UCRB, NC

Creating learning communities/local peer groups and networks for sharing of information

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Agriculture

What’s Working?

UCRB, NC 2-way communication between local <-> USDM

(across sectors, not just ag)

Quarterly basin summary (potential for more/better distribution)

USGS streamflow data

US Drought Monitor Map

High Plains Regional Climate Center products

Who’s Missing?

Ag producers

Private sector businesses – e.g., Monsanto, John Deere

Certified crop advisors, crop insurance agents and other ag-

related organizations/associations, etc.

Extension and Ag Experiment Station

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Natural Resource Management

Research Gaps and Needs

Need for more baseline data/monitoring of snowpack, soil moisture,

streamflow gauges and timely access to the data and accessible

archive

Improved understanding of historical droughts (back to paleoclimate

timescale) to put modern day droughts into context**

Improved models of vegetation responses to future drought and impacts

to ecosystem services/livelihoods/wildlife

Translate regional/national products to local impacts for preparedness

and decision support (e.g., for fire management across scales of

governance/agencies

How to develop risk management strategies with an unknown or

uncertain future condition of an ecosystem/vegetation (e.g. T&E

species)**

Need to quantify & communicate drought in value terms, e.g.,

economic, livelihoods (jobs), non-market value ecosystem services**

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Natural Resource Management

Communication and Information Delivery Needs

Need to better communicate changes in

climate/ecosystem/vegetation regimes and potential

future scenarios to policymakers

Format/localize information for the target audience

Need to better connect with other MRB committees, tie

into existing groups

Using significant historical droughts as context for

communicating/relating to recent/future droughts

Communicate the message to build resiliency to

climate extremes (drought/flood events)

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Municipal/Communities and Rural Water

Supply

Research Gaps and Needs

Industry needs approved forecasting method for extended

droughts, good accuracy

GCDP numbers and other data hard to get, often proprietary

Development of guidance documents for drought management

and planning

Communication and Information Delivery Needs

Delivery of guidance documents for drought management and

planning

Sustained, proactive communication, not just during/after a

drought

Better utilize traditional and social media outlets

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Municipal/Communities and Rural Water

Supply

What’s Working?

Missouri, connecting smaller systems to regional suppliers

Kansas, showed small water systems how to read monitoring wells

Iowa, working through rural & urban water associations for

encourage muni drought planning

Who’s Missing?

Commodity orgs

Reps of municipal water suppliers (public water)

Executive branch/higher level authority from states

Media

Game and parks

Oil and gas

Local water systems/irrigation districts

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Energy

Research Gaps and Needs-Drought is not the only weather/climate related vulnerability. Supply is also impacted during flooding. Increased ice storms impacts distribution and transmission. Climate information could be used for a general assessment of infrastructure. System is designed for averages.-Congressional instruction to promote renewable energy sources. Development of these sources, combined with load growth, makes it difficult to move energy.

i. Power generation is a minute-by-minute decision whereas infrastructure changes, such as revamping systems to use lower quality water, may take years.

ii. The system of dams in the Missouri River Basin builds in a buffer, so any reductions in precipitation are lagged.

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Energy

Communication and Information Delivery Needs

Awareness and education! People need to understand that groundwater buffers that got us through previous extended droughts like the 1930s are gone.

The hydroelectric companies don’t manage water, they manage demand

What’s working?

-Hydro works on demand. So, as long as water is available, this form of energy works. However, they don’t manage water!

-Day to day activities are currently covered. But, vulnerabilities are at hand.

Who’s missing?

-A good question to follow-up on in the future.

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Human Health

Research Gaps and Needs

-Heat index, Mental health data, emergency room

statistics.

- The scientific journal approach is an impediment. It

takes so slow to learn about potential health impacts.

When the outbreaks occur we need to jump out right

away. We need the data! We don’t know where the data

is!

- There needs to be more epidemiologists focusing on this

issue that can identify population health issues right

away.

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Human Health

Communication and Information Delivery Needs:

When a doctor meets you, they should be asking “How are drought conditions affecting you?” The people who become doctors need to know what the rural context is.

There is a lack of awareness on urbanites about drought. Many people don’t really understand what the impacts are of drought in general. They don’t believe it affects them. Education is critical so people are aware of cascading effects of drought. How do you effectively communicate risk?

What is the role of schools and educators in this? Seems like kids should be able to relate water to health better?

-The community buy in is critical. Who knows more than the community?

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Human Health What’s working?

-Who Knows? We need to be finding this out, record it, and disseminate it to the broader public.

-There have been some case studies, “The Anatomy of a Heat Wave”-ask Jim Schwab about this and how Chicago has tackled the heat wave issue!

-UNMC has an excellent Ag Health and Safety Program that addresses heat and drought!

Who do we need to be talking to?

Social workers and primary care doctors, school nurses, educators, K-4 / K-12 programs, health and human services (at federal and state levels). There is a need to educate people on weather and health, people experience climate through health conditions.