ngn buiness modeling and planning.pdf
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NGN Buiness modeling and planningTRANSCRIPT
InternationalTelecommunicationUnionBusiness planning issues - OGSNew Delhi, India, October 2010
ITU-D Workshop on NGN and Regulation for India
NGN Business Modeling and Planning
New Delhi (India), October 2010
Oscar González SotoITU Consultant Expert
Spain [email protected]
InternationalTelecommunicationUnionBusiness planning issues - OGSNew Delhi, India, October 2010 2
Agenda
• Business Planning issues
• Business Planning in NGN
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What cost for network evolution?
What timing per network segment?
How to reduce CAPEX and OPEX?
Which technology per segment?
What new services to introduce and in what sequence ?
How to deal with high traffic growth by data applications ?
Others …….
Issues of NGN Business Planning
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Forecast solutions, costs and revenues
Evaluate future Cashflows, NPV, IRR, ROI, etc.
Perform “What-if” analysis for optional alternatives on Volume of customers, customer mixes and services domains
Perform benchmarking with “best in class”operators
Decision making on strategy and actions in Decision making on strategy and actions in competition based on quantified evaluationscompetition based on quantified evaluations
Recommend alternatives and actions to ensure success
Role of Business Planning
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Definition of business plan
A Business Plan presents the calculation of the financial indicators that enable the managers to evaluate the financial performances of an enterprise in order to take decisions.
A Business Plan summarizes the results of the planning process: • the objectives to reach ( subscribers demand, sales)• the description of all activities requested by the project;• the future revenues expected from the project;• the planned expenses (investment and operations);• the accounting statements and the financial indicators
characterizing the profitability of the project.
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Overall Planning: Related Processes and interrelation
BusinessPlanning
StrategicNetwork/business
Planning
Long TermStructuralPlanning
Short/MediumTerm
Planning
Network
Planning
The Network
Network
ManagementNetworkSupportProcesses
CustomerCare &
Billing ...
NetworkTraffic & QoS
Measurement ...
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Types of business plans
Strategic Business Plan for evaluating a strategy:• aid for making internal decisions for the whole company (strategic guidelines at the national level, all markets)
Tactical Business Plans for specific projects :• aid for making internal decisions for a particular area, or a market segment: mobiles, IP, applications
Short term Business Plans for management control :• aid for monitoring the implementation of projects• preparation and follow-up of budgets,
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Main financial indicators
The most useful economical indicators are :
- Net present value (NPV)- Internal rate of return (IRR) - Discounted Payback period (DPP)- Net cash flow (NCF)- Discounted cash flow (DCF)- Operating income- Revenue per service/service class
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INFLOWS and OUTFLOWS
cash flow
Customers Shareholders Banks, lenders
Sales of services Increase of equity Increase of debt
LabourcostsTraining
Technical& admini-strativeexpenses
Network&equipment
Tax Debtrepaymentwithinterests
Dividends
ShareholdersBanks,lenders
Govern-ment
Suppliers Serviceproviders
Staff
INFLOWS
OUTFLOWS
(credit, loans)(capital increase)(operating income)
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Cash-Flow and components over time
Financial evaluation and cash flow
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
Y0 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10
evaluation period
KEur
o
Capex investmentOpexCapex extensionCapex substitutionResidual valueRevenuesCash flow
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Net Present Value (NPV) as best decision making indicator
Net Present Value (NPV)A global capital budgeting technique; found by subtracting a project’s initial investment from the present value of its cash inflows discounted at a rate equal to the firm's cost of capital.
NPV = present value of cash inflows - initial investment
NPV = Σ [CF/(1 + k)t] – Initial Investment
Two metrics:NPV zero terminal value (when short term life cycles involved)NPV at perpetuity rate (when long life cycles of equipment and projecting business at the end of evaluation period)
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Net Present Value (NPV) as best decision making indicator
Differential NPV for NGN alternatives
-50,00
0,00
50,00
100,00
150,00
200,00
250,00
Y0 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10
Year
Cur
renc
y U
nits
medium speed migration NPV (Zero Terminal Value) no OSP enhance NPV (Zero Terminal Value)
medium level enhance NPV (Zero Terminal Value) high level enhance NPV (Zero Terminal Value)
Example of differential NPV comparison at 4 deployment alternatives
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Dynamic modelling of network activity flows for migration
IncrementalDemandfor service
TotalIncrementalDemand forResources
IncrementalResourceSupply
Production& Costingof Resources
ResourceDepreciation &Decommissioning
TariffandRevenue
Servicecosts &charges
Others costs(Admin/mkt)
TariffPolicy
DemandParameters
Replacementof Resources
Resources Costs(And trends)
Input data
Phase ofcalculation
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Agenda
• Business Planning issues
• Business Planning in NGN
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Network Planning domains
Planning domains to be addressed in NGNPlanning domains to be addressed in NGN
Business PlanningBusiness Planning
Fixed Access BB Planning
Fixed Access BB Planning Transmission
planningTransmission
planning
Fixed Switching and
routing planning
Fixed Switching and
routing planning
IT, OSS, IMS and Applications planningIT, OSS, IMS and
Applications planning
Access radio planning
Access radio planning
Core radio planning
Core radio planning Signaling and
control planning
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Business Planning Areasfor NGN
• Business evaluation for core migration rates to IP/MPLS mode
• Business evaluation for Local/Edge migration to IP/MPLS mode with new functionalities
• Business evaluation for Access migration at physical and functional levels
• Business evaluation for IP protocols migration: IPv4 to IPv6
• Business evaluation for Overall migration to full end to end NGN
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Business Planning Areasfor NGN
• Business impact of introducing new services and service bundles
• Wholesale versus retail business evaluations
• What technology to use per geo-scenario
• Infrastructure sharing business evaluation
• NM/ OSS/BSS migration from multiple platforms to integrated platform
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Business Planning projections
Business plans by BT for overall investments and revenues with NGN 21 CN. This type of evaluation has to be performed by all service providers
Time
$
Revenue ICT
Expenses
Invest to Grow
ICTServices
21CN
Invest to Save
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Business Planning savings
Infrastructure sharing dimensions in NGN that need business evaluations to reduce costs
Horizontal network segments sharing
BackhaulingAccessCustomer Local National International
Physical
Spectrum
Switching
Services
Applications
Transmission
Verti
cal n
etw
ork
reso
urce
s sha
ring
International Mobile
Roaming
International GW sharing
End-user
sharing
Passive Infrastructure SharingLLU Sharing
Mobile Virtual Network Operation Sharing
Spectrum Sharing
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Illustration of functional requirements for the business planning domain
Modular Functionalities
Market Demand Forecasting
Costs, Tariffs and Revenues
Capacity grow and Substitutions
Financial evaluations
Backward Cost Assignment
Inputs From other
Planning Tools
From Network
From Technology
From Data Bases
From Planners
Outputs
To other Planning Tools
To Network and OSS
To Data Bases
To Planners
Scenario’s Sensitivity
Business/Network/Scenario Design
Network Planning Tools Requirements:
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Required functionality for Business tools in NGN
- Service Demand Projection- Dynamic modeling for technology substitution and migration rates- Dimensioning multiple flows (circuit and packet modes)- Evaluation of network resources and associated investment (CAPEX)
- Evaluation of revenues for services and service bundles- Modeling multiple resource lifetimes- Modeling of demand elasticity to tariffs- Interrelation between network growth and operational cost (OPEX)- Cost assignment as a function of utilization rates- Generation of standard financial results like Cash Flow, Profit & Loss, Balance Sheet, NPV, IRR, etc.
Network Planning Tools Requirements:
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What technology to use per geo-scenario? : Best Solution Mapping
Compliance• Services• Capacities• Availability• Operational
constraints
SelectedScenarios
NetworkModels
SelectedNetworkSolutions
Recommendations
MappingTechnicalSolutions
Projects/Geo-scenarios
Techno-economicalEvaluation• Architecture• Density• Capital expenditure• NPV of full costs• Entry costs
Qualifiers• Flexibility• Speed to service• Evolution• Experience
Results
Input criteria
Actions
MappingEconomical
SolutionsMappingQualified Solutions
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Solution Mapping: Investment sensitivity to density in WL Access
High density areas
Metrop. total
Metrop. infrastructure
Sub. total
Sub. infrastructure
Density (subscribers per KM²)
Mon
etar
y un
its
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
529
651
774
894
1 01
6
1 13
9
1 25
9
1 38
1
1 50
4
1 62
5
1 74
7
1 87
01
990
2 11
2
2 23
52
355
2 47
7
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Cost sensitivity to customer density per type of solution
0500
1 0001 5002 0002 5003 0003 5004 0004 5005 000
7 13 20 27 33 40 47 53
Density: (customers/ km^2)
CA
PEX,
pric
e pe
r lin
e,
Mon
etar
y un
its WL extension inexisting network
.WL solution Greenfield
WLL solution Greenfield
- Clear cross-point between WL and WLL solutions as a density function
- Important impact of existing network reusability
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Frequent applicability mapping at access
Mobile
Satellite
FTTx
WL-DLC/xDSL
WL-PLC
IMT 2000-WLL
WiMax
Technology Solution
Disperse settlement
s
LD resorts Rural Clusters
LD Villages
Scenario Type
(if OSP available)
FTTC FTTP
Most frequent applicability is illustrated per solution category
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Solution mapping by business evaluations
• Current positioning of access and FTTH solutions in service/density scenarios
POTS/Fax POTS/ISDN/Data POTS/data/Video Multimedia BBPOTS/Data nx64
Highdensity
Mediumdensity
- Highclustering
10000
1000
1000
200
200
0.5
Cust./Km2
Services&Traffic
WL: MultiserviceWL: Multiserviceand DSLAMand DSLAMxDSLxDSL
Satellite BB
NarrowbandSwitching
GPON/FTTHGPON/FTTHGreenfieldGreenfield
Wireless AccessWideband/BB/WiMAX
Rur
al a
nd L
ow D
ensi
ty
Lowdensity
- Lowclustering Satellite NB
Wireless AccessNarrowband
20 Fixed GSM/CDMA
Overlap areaOverlap area
Quantitative Dif. < 10%Quantitative Dif. < 10%
““Qualitative assignmentQualitative assignment””
GPON/FTTHGPON/FTTHExisting AccessExisting Access
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Recommendations
• Identify key factors for business feasibility and strategy definition
• Develop team with capability to perform techno-economical evaluations to decide best alternative.
Collaborate with external experts when needed
• Investment in business evaluations produce the higher returns by a high multiplication factor