new zealand economic chart pack - march 2020
TRANSCRIPT
March 2020
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – March 2020 Page 2
Contents
Aggregate Output .................................................................................................................................... 3
Prices ....................................................................................................................................................... 4
Households .............................................................................................................................................. 5
Business .................................................................................................................................................. 6
Government ............................................................................................................................................. 7
Taxation ................................................................................................................................................... 8
External Sector ........................................................................................................................................ 9
Labour Market ....................................................................................................................................... 10
Housing Market ..................................................................................................................................... 11
Financial Market .................................................................................................................................... 12
Indicators of Productive Capacity .......................................................................................................... 13
Balance Sheet ....................................................................................................................................... 14
Sectoral Saving ..................................................................................................................................... 15
Ratios to GDP ........................................................................................................................................ 16
Miscellaneous ........................................................................................................................................ 17
International ........................................................................................................................................... 18
Abbreviations ......................................................................................................................................... 19
Data finalised 25 March 2020
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – March 2020 Page 3
Aggregate Output
Production GDP Growth
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Tradable & Non-tradable Activity
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Components of Production GDP
Sources: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury
Production GDP per Capita Growth
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Nominal GDP Growth
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Components of Expenditure GDP
Sources: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Quarterly % change (s.a.) Annual average % change
% %
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Direct tradable sector Direct non-tradable sector
Indirect tradable sector Indirect non-tradable sector
Index (Mar 1995Q1=100) Index (Mar 1995Q1=100)
-0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry
Mining
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste
Manufacturing
Construction
Wholesale, Retail and Accomodation
Other services
Unallocated/balancing Item
Production GDP
% pt contribution
.December 2019 quarter
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Quarterly % change (s.a.) Annual average % change
% %
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Quarterly % change (s.a.) Annual average % change
% %
-0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Private Consumption
Public Consumption
Residential Investment
Business Investment
Exports of Goods and Services
Imports of Goods and Services
Change in inventories
Balancing Item
Expenditure GDP
% pt contribution
.December 2019 quarter
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – March 2020 Page 4
Prices
Consumers Price Index
Source: Statistics New Zealand
CPI Inflation & Pricing intentions
Sources: Statistics New Zealand, ANZ, NZIER
GDP Deflator
Source: Statistics New Zealand
CPI Components
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Inflation Expectations
Sources: RBNZ, ANZ, The Treasury
Consumption Deflator
Source: Statistics New Zealand
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Quarterly % change Annual % change
% %
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
ANZBO - pricing intentions QSBO - average selling price
CPI inflation (RHS)
Net % Annual % change
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Quarterly % change Annual % change
% %
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Tradable inflation Non-tradable inflation
Annual % change Annual % change
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
RBNZ survey of expectations - one year ahead
ANZBO - inflation expectations
% %
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Quarterly % change Annual % change
% %
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – March 2020 Page 5
Households
Real Private Consumption Growth
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Nominal Retail Sales & Gross Earnings Growth
Source: Statistics New Zealand
International Travel
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Real Core Retail Sales Growth
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Car Registrations
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Consumer Confidence
Sources: Westpac McDermott Miller, ANZ-Roy Morgan
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Quarterly % change Annual average % change
% %
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Core retail sales
Total weekly gross earnings
Annual % change Annual % change
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Short term New Zealand resident departures
Short term overseas visitor arrivals
000s per month (s.a.) 000s per month (s.a.)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Quarterly % change Annual average % change
% %
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Total registrations Previously registered overseas
New cars
000s per month 000s per month
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Westpac Mcdermott Miller ANZ-Roy Morgan
Index Index
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – March 2020 Page 6
Business
Real Business Investment Growth
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Investment & Business Profitability
Sources: Statistics New Zealand, NZIER
Firms’ Own Activity Outlook
Sources: NZIER, ANZ
Net Operating Surplus & Company Tax
Sources: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand, Inland
Revenue Department
Non-Residential Buildings
Source: Statistics New Zealand
General Business Confidence
Sources: NZIER, ANZ
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Quarterly % change (s.a.) Annual average % change
% %
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Real business investment Profitability (RHS, advanced 2 qtrs)
Annual average % change Net %
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
QSBO ANZBO
Net % Net %
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Net Operating Surplus Company Tax (RHS)
Annual average % change Annual average % change
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Real non-residential building investment
Value of non-residential consents
Annual average % change Annual average % change
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
QSBO ANZBO
Net % Net %
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – March 2020 Page 7
Government
Real Public Consumption Growth (ex-Military)
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Government Debt to GDP Ratio (June years)
Source: The Treasury
Fiscal Balance (June years)
Source: The Treasury
Nominal Public Sector Wage Growth
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Tax to GDP Ratio
Source: The Treasury
Implied Company & Personal Income Tax Ratio
Sources: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Quarterly % change (s.a.) Annual average % change
% %
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Gross sovereign-issued debt Net core Crown debt
% of GDP % of GDP
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Operating balance OBEGAL
% of GDP % of GDP
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Quarterly % Change (s.a.) Annual % Change
% %
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Total tax revenue (4 quarter moving average)
% of GDP % of GDP
20
24
28
32
36
40
20
24
28
32
36
40
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Company tax to corporate profit *
Source deductions to compensation of employees ratio
% %
* Company tax has been lagged by 4 quarters
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – March 2020 Page 8
Taxation
Total Tax Receipts & Nominal GDP
Sources: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand
Corporate Tax & Nominal GDP
Sources: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand
Resident Withholding Tax on Interest
Sources: The Treasury, RBNZ
Source Deductions & Compensation of Employees
Sources: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand
Total GST & Nominal Consumption
Sources: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand
Customs GST & Nominal Goods Imports
Sources: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Total tax receipts Nominal GDP
Annual average % change Annual average % change
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Corporate tax Nominal GDP (RHS)
Annual average % change Annual average % change
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Quarterly resident withholding tax receipts
90 day bank bill yield (advanced 2 qtrs)
Annual % change Annual % change
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Source deductions Compensation of employees
Annual average % change Annual average % change
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
GST Nominal private and public consumption
Annual average % change Annual average % change
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Customs GST Nominal goods imports
Annual average % change Annual average % change
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – March 2020 Page 9
External Sector
SNA Export Growth
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Current Account
4 quarter running total
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Composition of Export Volume Growth
Source: Statistics New Zealand
SNA Import Growth
Source: Statistics New Zealand
OTI Terms of Trade
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Composition of Import Volume Growth (ex-Military)
Source: Statistics New Zealand
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Goods & services export values
Goods & services export volumes
Annual average % change Annual average % change
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Goods balance Services balance
Income balances Current account balance
% of GDP % of GDP
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Primary goods Manufacturing goods
Other goods Services
Annual average % change Annual average % change
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Goods & services import values
Goods & services import volumes
Annual average % change Annual average % change
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Terms of Trade Import prices Export prices
Index (June 2002=1000) Index (June 2002=1000)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Capital goods Intermediate goods
Consumption goods Services
Annual average % change Annual average % change
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – March 2020 Page 10
Labour Market
Unemployment & Participation Rate
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Labour Productivity (GDP divided by hours worked)
Source: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury
Employment Intentions
Source: NZIER, ANZ
Employment & Labour Force Growth
Source: Statistics New Zealand
International Migration
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Wage Growth
Source: Statistics New Zealand
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Unemployment rate Participation rate (RHS inverse)
% (s.a.) % (s.a.)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Quarterly % change (s.a.) Annual average % change
% %
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
QSBO ANZBO
Net % Net %
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Employment Growth Labour Force Growth
Annual average % change Annual average % change
-40
0
40
80
120
160
-40
0
40
80
120
160
02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Estimated net migration Estimated migrant arrivals
Estimated migrant departures
000s per year 000s per year
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
LCI salary & wage rates (non-adjusted)
QES - average hourly earnings
LCI salary & wage rates (quality-adjusted)
Annual % change Annual % change
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – March 2020 Page 11
Housing Market
Real Residential Investment Growth
Source: Statistics New Zealand
House Sales & Building Consents
Source: Statistics New Zealand, REINZ
Affordability (based on REINZ median house price)
Source: Statistics New Zealand, RBNZ, REINZ, The
Treasury
House Prices
Source: REINZ, QV
House Sales & Days to Sell
Source: REINZ
Migration & House Prices
Source: Statistics New Zealand, REINZ
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Quarterly % change (s.a.) Annual average % change
% %
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
REINZ - dwelling sales
Building consents - dwellings (RHS)
000s per month (s.a.) 000s per month (s.a.)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Average mortgage payment (including principal) *
Median house price to income (RHS)
% of gross household income x gross annual household income
* Based on 2yr fixed rate &
20% deposit on median house price
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
REINZ - house price index QV house price index
Annual % change Annual % change
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12 25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
REINZ - dwelling sales
REINZ - median days to sell (RHS inverse)
000s per month (s.a.) Days (s.a.)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Estimated net migration
REINZ house price index (RHS)
Annual net migration (000s) Annual % change
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – March 2020 Page 12
Financial Market
Wholesale Interest Rates
Source: RBNZ
Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate Index
Source: RBNZ
Long-Term Interest Rate Differentials
Source: RBNZ, Haver Analytics
Retail Mortgage Rates
Source: RBNZ
Equity Market Indices
Source: Haver Analytics
Exchange Rates
Source: RBNZ
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Official cash rate (OCR) 90 day bank bill yield
10 year government bond yield
% %
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
TWI
Index Index
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
New Zealand/United States New Zealand/Australia
Basis points Basis points
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
First mortgage floating rate First mortgage 2 year fixed rate
% %
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
NZ (NZX50 index) UK (FTSE 100)
US (S&P 500) Australia (All Ordinaries)
Japan (Nikkei) Germany (DAX 30)
Index (Jan 1995=100) Index (Jan 1995=100)
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
NZD / USD NZD / AUD (RHS)
NZD/USD NZD/AUD
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – March 2020 Page 13
Indicators of Productive Capacity
Output Gap
Source: The Treasury
Capacity Utilisation
Source: NZIER
Resource Pressures
Source: NZIER
Capacity Utilisation
Source: NZIER
Demand Pressures
Source: NZIER
Difficulty Finding Labour
Source: Statistics New Zealand, NZIER
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
HP filter Kalman filter
Small macro model
% %
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Exporters Non-exporters
% %
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Labour as a limiting factor Capacity as a limiting factor
Finance as a limiting factor
% %
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Economy wide Builders
Manufacturers
% %
40
50
60
70
80
90
40
50
60
70
80
90
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Sales as a limiting factor
% %
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Difficulty finding skilled labour Difficulty finding unskilled labour
Unemployment rate (RHS)
Net % % (s.a.)
Less difficult
More difficult
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – March 2020 Page 14
Balance Sheet
Household Debt to Asset Ratios
Source: RBNZ, The Treasury
Household Assets & Liabilities
Source: RBNZ, The Treasury
Net Foreign Assets
Source: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury
Household Debt & Servicing
Source: RBNZ, The Treasury
Household Equity
Source: RBNZ, The Treasury
Credit Growth
Source: RBNZ
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Housing loan to value ratio Other debt to financial assets ratio
Total debt to asset ratio
% %
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Housing assets Financial liabilities
Financial assets Net worth
% of disposable income % of disposable income
-90
-85
-80
-75
-70
-65
-60
-55
-50
-90
-85
-80
-75
-70
-65
-60
-55
-50
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Net international investment position (NIIP)
NIIP excluding earthquake-related reinsurance assets
% of GDP % of GDP
Figures prior to June 2000 qtr
interpolated from annual series
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Household debt (RHS) Effective interest rate
Debt servicing (% of disposable income)
% % of disposable income
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Housing equity Financial equity
Net worth
% of disposable income % of disposable income
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Total Households
Agriculture Business
Annual % change Annual % change
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – March 2020 Page 15
Sectoral Saving
Net Household Saving (March years)
Source: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury
Net General Government Saving (March years)
Source: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury
Gross Saving & Investment Flows 4 quarter running total
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Net Business Saving (March years)
Source: The Treasury
Net National Saving (March years)
Source: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury
Net Household Saving
Source: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Net household saving
% of GDP % of GDP
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Net public saving
% of GDP % of GDP
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Gross national saving Gross Investment
Current account balance
% of GDP % of GDP
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Net business saving
% of GDP % of GDP
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Net national saving
% of GDP % of GDP
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Net household saving
% of disposable income % of disposable income
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – March 2020 Page 16
Ratios to GDP
Private Consumption
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Residential Investment
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Nominal Imports & Exports
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Public Consumption
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Other Investment
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Real Imports & Exports
Source: Statistics New Zealand
54
56
58
60
62
64
54
56
58
60
62
64
89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Nominal Real
% of GDP % of GDP
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Nominal Real
% of GDP % of GDP
20
24
28
32
36
40
20
24
28
32
36
40
89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Exports Imports
% of GDP % of GDP
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Nominal Real
% of GDP % of GDP
10
12
14
16
18
20
10
12
14
16
18
20
89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Nominal Real
% of GDP % of GDP
16
20
24
28
32
36
16
20
24
28
32
36
89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Exports Imports
% of GDP % of GDP
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – March 2020 Page 17
Miscellaneous
Soil Moisture Deficit
Source: NIWA
Electricity Generation
Source: Electricity Authority
Source: IMF, Consensus Economics
Southern Oscillation Index
Source: www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au
Electricity Price
Source: WITS Free To Air
Purchasing Managers Indices
Source: Haver Analytics
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Hydro electricity generation
Thermal electricity generation
GWh GWh
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Southern Oscillation Index
Index Index
La Nina
El Nino
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Average monthly electricity price
$/MWh $/MWh
28
32
36
40
44
48
52
56
60
64
28
32
36
40
44
48
52
56
60
64
04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
UK Japan US
China Euro Area Aus
Index Index
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – March 2020 Page 18
International
Real GDP Growth
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Haver Analytics
Official Interest Rates
Source: RBNZ, Haver Analytics
Unemployment Rate
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Haver Analytics
CPI Inflation
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Haver Analytics
Short-term Interest Rates
Source: RBNZ, Haver Analytics
Current Account
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Haver Analytics
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Australia United States Japan
United Kingdom Euro area New Zealand
Annual average % change Annual average % change
-1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
New Zealand
Australia
Canada
United Kingdom
United States
Japan
Euro Area
.As at 23/03/2020
%
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Australia United States Japan
United Kingdom Euro area New Zealand
% (s.a.) % (s.a.)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Australia United States Japan
United Kingdom Euro area New Zealand
Annual % change Annual % change
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Australia United States Japan
United Kingdom Euro area New Zealand
% %
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Australia United States Japan
United Kingdom Euro area New Zealand
% of GDP % of GDP
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – March 2020 Page 19
Abbreviations
CPI Consumers Price Index
GDP Gross Domestic Product
LCI Labour Cost Index
ANZBO ANZ Business Outlook
NZIER New Zealand Institute of Economic Research
OBEGAL Operating Balance before Gains and Losses
OTI Overseas Trade Index
QES Quarterly Employment Survey
QSBO Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion
QV Quotable Value Ltd
RBNZ Reserve Bank of New Zealand
REINZ Real Estate Institute of New Zealand
S.A. Seasonally Adjusted
SNA System of National Accounts