June 2016RPS Group

The Western Australian Economy and

Property Markets

Chart Pack | June 2016

PO Box 465, Subiaco Western Australia 6904W rpsgroup.com.au

ContactWA Head Office p. +61 8 9211 1111Level 2, 27-31 Troode Street w. www.rpsgroup.com.auWEST PERTH WA 6005

Tim Connoley Technical Director - Economics

About Economics at RPSRPS is an international consultancy providing world-class local solutions in energy and resources, infrastructure, environment and urban growth. Our Economics team is well positioned to undertake comprehensive analysis of a range of business, community andgovernment issues and projects. Our key areas of expertise include:

• Urban Economics• Socio-Economics• Economic Development• Regulatory Economics• Corporate Strategy and Advice

RPS Group | Chart Pack | June 2016 2

Figure 1 - Population Change, Western Australia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

-4,000

1,000

6,000

11,000

16,000

21,000

26,000

31,000

Popu

latio

n Gr

owth

(p.a

.)

Chan

ge in

Pop

ulat

ion

(qua

rter

ly)

Natural Increase Net Overseas MigrationNet Interstate Migration Annual Growth Source: ABS 3101.0, RPS Group

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

Chan

ge in

Em

ploy

men

t (m

onth

ly)

Change in Employment (Trend)Unemployment Rate (Trend)Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj.) Source: ABS 6202.0, RPS Group

Figure 2 - Labour Market, Western Australia

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

Reta

il Tu

rnov

er G

row

th (p

.a.)

Western Australia AustraliaSource: ABS 8501.0, RPS Group

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

Hom

e Lo

an R

ates

(p.a

.)

Standard Variable Three-Year FixedSource: RBA, RPS Group

Figure 3 - Retail Turnover

Figure 5 - Mortgage Rates, Australia

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Food HouseholdGoods

DepartmentStores

Other Retailing Take Away/Restaurants

Reta

il Tu

rnov

er G

row

th (p

.a.)

Previous 12 Months Ten-Year AverageSource: ABS 8501.0, RPS Group

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17

Cash

Rat

e (%

)

27-Jan 14-Apr-16 Source: ASX, RPS Group

Figure 6 - Cash Rate Expectations, Australia

Figure 4 - Retail Turnover, Western Australia

Western Australian Economy

3RPS Group | Chart Pack | June 2016

Figure 7 - Merchandise Exports, Western Australia

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

Iron

Ore

Pric

e ($

US/

tonn

e)

Mer

hcan

dise

Exp

orts

($ m

illio

ns/m

onth

)

Merchandise Exports Iron Ore Price

62% FE spot (CFR Tianjin port)

Source: ABS 5368.0, RPS Group

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Wag

e Pr

ice

Gro

wth

(p.a

.)

Western Australia AustraliaSource: ABS 6345.0, RPS Group

Figure 8 - Wage Price Index

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Cons

umer

Pric

e In

dex

Gro

wth

(p.a

.)

Perth AustraliaSource: ABS 6401.0, RPS Group

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

Non

-Res

iden

tial B

uild

ing

Wor

k ($

mill

ion/

quar

ter)

Work Done Building ApprovalsSource: ABS 8752.0, ABS 8731.0, RPS Group

Figure 9 - Consumer Price Index

Figure 11 - Non-Residential Construction, WA

-8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%

Food

Housing

Education

Accommodation& Travel

Transport

Health

Household Equipment& Services

Utilities

Inflation (p.a.)

Ten-year average (p.a.) Previous 12 MonthsSource: ABS 6401.0, RPS Group

$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800

Commercial

Industrial

Education

Aged Care

Health

Entertainment& Recreation

Short StayAccommodation

Value of Work ($ millions)

Previous 12 Months Five-Year AverageSource: ABS 8731.0, RPS Group

Figure 12 - Non-Residential Construction, WA

Figure 10 - Inflation, Western Australia

Western Australian Economy

4RPS Group | Chart Pack | June 2016

Figure 13 - Engineering Work, Western Australia

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

Engi

neer

ing

Wor

k ($

m/q

uart

er, p

rice-

adju

sted

)

Seasonally Adjusted Trend Source: ABS 8762.0, RPS Group

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Priv

ate

Capi

tal E

xpen

ditu

re ($

mill

ions

p.a

.)

Mining Manufacturing Other Industries Source: ABS 5625.0, RPS Group

Figure 14 - Private Capital Expenditure, WA

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

Expl

orat

ion

Expe

nditu

re ($

mill

ions

/qua

rter

)

Mining Petroleum Source: ABS 8412.0, RPS Group

Figure 15 - Exploration Expenditure, Western

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

Chan

ge in

Exp

endi

ture

(p.a

.)

State Final Demand Private InvestmentPrivate Consumption Public Expenditure Source: ABS 5206.0, RPS Group

Figure 16 - Economic Growth, Western Australia

Western Australian Economy

5RPS Group | Chart Pack | June 2016

Figure 17 & 18 - Owner Occupier Housing Finance, Western Australia

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Ow

ner-

Occ

upie

r Loa

n Co

mm

itmen

ts (m

onth

ly)

Established Dwellings New DwellingsSource: ABS 5609.0, RPS Group

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Ow

ner-

Occ

upie

r Loa

n Co

mm

itmen

ts (m

onth

ly)

Upgraders First Home BuyersSource: ABS 5609.0, RPS Group

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

Hom

e Lo

an C

omm

itmen

ts ($

mill

ions

/mon

th)

Investors Upgraders First Home BuyersSource: ABS 5609.0, RPS Group

Figure 19 - Housing Finance Value, Western Australia

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Firs

t Hom

e O

wne

r Gra

nt A

pplic

atio

ns (m

onth

ly)

Established Homes New DwellingsSource: Treasury (WA), RPS Group

Figure 20 - First Home Buyers,Western Australia

Residential Property | WA

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Resi

dent

ial C

onst

ruct

ion

(dw

ellin

gs p

.a.)

Houses Commenced Dwellings CommencedHouses Completed Dwellings Completed Source: ABS 8752.0, ABS 8731.0, RPS Group

Figure 21 - Residential Construction, Western Australia

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Build

ing

Appr

oval

s (dw

ellin

gs/m

onth

)

Houses Other DwellingsSource: ABS 8731.0, RPS Group

Figure 22 - Building Approvals, Western Australia

6RPS Group | Chart Pack | June 2016

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Resi

dent

ial P

rope

rty

List

ings

(qua

rter

ly)

Source: REIWA, RPS Group

Figure 23 - Property Listings, Metropolitan Perth

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Resi

dent

ial V

acan

t Lan

d Li

stin

gs (m

onth

ly)

Source: REIWA, RPS Group

Figure 24 - Land Listings, Metropolitan Perth

Residential Property | Perth

Figure 25 - Property Sales, Metropolitan Perth

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Mul

it-U

nit D

wel

ling

Sale

s (w

eekl

y)

Hou

se S

ales

(wee

kly)

Houses Sold Houses Trend Units Trend Units Sold Source: REIWA, RPS Group

0

50

100

150

200

250

Dev

elop

er Lo

t Sal

es In

dex

(wee

kly)

Sales Trend Rolling Average Source: UDIA Land Snapshot, RPS Group

Figure 26 - Developer Land Sales, Greater Perth

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Build

ing

Appr

oval

s (dw

ellin

gs/m

onth

)

Houses Other DwellingsSource: ABS 8731.0, RPS Group

Figure 27 - Building Approvals, Greater Perth

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Num

ber o

f Lot

s (an

nual

ised

)

Applications Lodged Conditional Approvals Final ApprovalsSource: WAPC, RPS Group

Figure 28 - Residential Subdivisions, Greater Perth