Does Early Education Reduce Crime?!By Miriam Elnemr!

Undergraduate Research Fellow!Center for American Politics and Public Policy!

University of Washington!

Imagine if your entire future was determined by what you did in the third grade. Did you know we use the failure rates of third-graders to help predict how many prison spots Virginia will need in 15 years?" !-- Gov. Terry McAuliffe, VA!

Hypothesis!States with lower 4th grade reading scores are more likely to experience a larger increase in prison sizes in the subsequent years, starting 8 years later as students reach adulthood, than states with higher reading scores. !

Theoretical Framework!While this claim has not yet been tested, there is consensus that education has an impact on reducing crime rates. Following that reasoning, it would seem that educational achievement at an early age will also have an impact on crime.!

Data!IV: State average 4th Grade Reading Scores from the National Assessment of Educational Progress, 1992-2003. !DV: State Prison Admissions from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2000-2011!

Conclusion!States with higher reading scores are more likely to have a smaller increase in prison sizes. Based on this study, it is evident that early education plays a significant role on later criminal involvement.!

Standard errors in parentheses * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

!Linear'Regression'Results !! Prison!Admission!Reading!Score! 14.196***!! (1.12)!! !Unemployment! 2.961!! (2.67)!! !Age! 111.78***!! (3.39)!! !Income! 1.321!! (1.56)!! !Spending!per!pupil! 0.00421!! (0.01)!! !Black!Population! 166.3*!! (74.79)!! !Hispanic!Population! 92.10!! (87.12)!! !Marijuana!Arrests! 10.151!! (0.11)!! !Death!Penalty! 35.57!! (25.83)!! !Urban! 11.313*!! (0.58)!

Acknowledgements!Thanks to John Wilkerson and Nick Stramp for their help.!

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95% Confidence Interval

Predicted Prison Admissions by Reading Score

Question!Are elementary reading scores actually predictive of a state’s future incarceration rates?!

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Distribution of Reading Scores