marginal oil fields in nigeria: an investor's guide

A n I n v e s t o r ’ s G u i d e t o M a r g i n a l F i e l d A c q u i s i t i o n i n N i g e r i a

A u g u s t , 2 0 1 5 I n p a r t n e r s h i p w i t h

E n e r g y & C o r p o r a t e A f r i c a

C H I J I O K E K . M A M A

A n I n v e s t o r ’ s G u i d e t o M a r g i n a l

O i l F i e l d A c q u i s i t i o n i n N i g e r i a


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Disclaimer

This document and its contents is for general information purpose only, it does not substitute the need to consult an expert

or professional advisor in relevant areas and is provided without any warranties (express or implied) of any kind. The au-

thor does not accept any liability for any direct or remote loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the in-

formation contained in this document. The document has been prepared without regard to the individual financial cir-

cumstances of those who read or use it. The opinions presented in it may be changed without prior notice and is not neces-

sarily definitive, current or authoritative. Data used in this document was gathered from reliable sources and some of the

opinion are those from other literatures and authors on the same subject matter. The publishers of this document do not

hold themselves responsible for the accuracy or completeness of data used. This document may not be reproduced, further

distributed to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose without the consent of the Author.

© 2015. Chijioke Kevin Mama

I n v e s t i n g i n m a r g i n a l o i l f i e l d s i s N O T a w a s t e o f

t i m e . A l t h o u g h i t c o u l d b e !


3

A b b r e v i a t i o n s

b b l B a r re l s

b p d B a r re l s p e r d ay

B c f B i l l i o n c u b i c fe e t

D P R D e p a r t m e n t o f Pe t ro l e u m R e s o u rc e s

E P S Ea r l y p ro d u c t i o n sy s t e m

E P S Ea r n i n g s P e r S h a r e

E & P E x p l o ra t i o n a n d P ro d u c t i o n

I O C I n t e r n a t i o n a l O i l C o m p a ny

L N G L i q u e f i e d N a t u ra l G a s

L P G L i q u e f i e d Pe t ro l e u m G a s

M F M a rg i n a l F i e l d s

M O F M a rg i n a l O i l f i e l d ( S a m e a s M F )

M M b o p d M i l l i o n b a r r e l s o f o i l p e r d ay

N N P C N i g e r i a n N a t i o n a l Pe t ro l e u m C o r p o ra t i o n

O M L O i l M i n i n g L e a s e

O P L O i l P ro s p e c t i n g L i c e n s e

O P E X O p e ra t i o n a l E x p e n d i t u r e

P I B Pe t ro l e u m I n d u s t r y B i l l

P P M C P i p e l i n e s a n d P ro d u c t s M a r ke t i n g C o m p a ny

R B L R e s e r v e s – B a s e d L e n d i n g

R R R R e s e r v e s R e p l a c e m e n t R a t i o n

Tc f Tr i l l i o n c u b i c fe e t

2 P R e s e r v e s P ro v e d a n d P ro b a b l e R e s e r v e s


4

C o n t e n t s

F r o n t c o v e r

D i s c l a i m e r 2

C o n t e n t s 3

A b o u t t h e R e p o r t 9

I n N i g e r i a 1 0

I n F o c u s 1 1

F o r W h o 1 3

1 . B a c k g r o u n d : m a r g i n a l o i l f i e l d s i n N i g e r i a 1 4

2 . P o l i c i e s & R e g u l a t i o n 1 7

Short term outlook of Marginal Oil Fields (MOF) in Nigeria 17

Insert: The law on marginal oil fields in Nigeria 17

Insert: some Recent divestments & acquisitions in Nigeria 20

Policy gaps & challenges in MOFs 23

Regulatory hurdles for MOFs 24

Government’s reforms in Nigeria. 27

3 . F i n a n c i n g M a r g i n a l O i l F i e l d s 2 8

The challenge (What has changed since 2003) 28

Insert: Some past small & MOF financing schemes 29

Foreign Partners, local & International Banks 30

Insert: Recent exposures of Nigerian banks to the energy sector 31

Some financing structures (Reserves-based Lending & Revenue-Based fi

nancing 33


5

Insert: comparing financing structures for Marginal Oil Fields 34

Royalty-Based Financing may be suitable for Nigeria's MOFs 35

Reserves - Based Lending (RBL) 37

Insert: Key elements of Reserves -Based Lending mechanics 38

Case

Seplat Petroleum Development Company Plc. 39

Insert: Facts: Seplat Petroleum Development Company Plc. 40

4. DPR’s farm out guidelines 41

2003 licensing rounds 41

Insert: Stated objectives (Ministry of Petroleum Resources) of the 2013

licensing round 42

2013 licensing round guidelines 43

Insert: Definition of marginal fields by the Nigerian Ministry of Petrole-

um 44

Comparative analysis: 2003 v 2013 45

5. Some post-award concerns 46

Farm-out Agreement (FA) 46

Technical Factors and Risks in Niger Delta 47

Insert: Recommended guidelinses for developing marginal fields in the Ni-

ger Delta 48

Reviewing some upstream risks 49

Insert: Sliding scale royalty rate to state 49


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Insert: Sliding scale overriding royalty rate. 49

Insert: Some risks associated with Marginal Oil Fields 50

Community issues 51

Insert: Comparison: Marginal Oil Fields’ tax incentive in Malaysia 52

Petroleum tax & fiscal regimes that affect MOFs 53

Insert: Some tax incentives and deductions for Marginal Oil Field Opera-

tors 53

6 . I m p r o v i n g i n f e r i o r e c o n o m i c s : M o d e l s a n d s t r a t e g i e s 5 4

Niche technical and executional capabilities 54

Insert: Facts about Mart Resource 55

Synergistic Strategies 56

Gas assets monetization 57

Insert: Some current and planed gas projects in Nigeria 57

Petrochemical opportunities. 58

Insert: Some marginal field gas assets and utilization 59

7 . 2 0 0 3 b i d r o u n d 6 0

P r o d u c i n g f i e l d s a n d t h e i r p r o d u c t i o n v o l u m e s 6 0

I n s e r t : r e c e n t p r o d u c t i o n v o l u m e i n s o m e M F s 6 1

2 0 0 3 L i c e n s e R o u n d s : n o n - p r o d u c i n g f i e l d s 6 2


7

8 . G o v e r n m e n t : s t r a t e g i e s f o r o p t i m i z i n g i n v e s t m e n t

a n d s u c c e s s i n M Fs 6 3

Why Optimize support frameworks for marginal field investors? 64

Insert: Some MF development benefits to nations 64

National Development 65

Springboard for the growth of small and mid cap firms 66

Government: SOFT support frameworks 67

Transparent execution of licensing rounds & robust guidelines 67

Explore wider foreign investor participation options that do not usurp local

dominance 68

Government: HARD support frameworks 69

Superior Regulations around MFs 69

Strategic and integrated development plan 70

Promote favorable financing schemes 71

Summary 72

Nigerian marginal fields profile 72

A p p e n d i x e s ( D i a g r a m s & Ta b l e s )

Q u i c k f a c t s o n N i g e r i a ’ s m a r g i n a l o i l f i e l d s [ b u l l e t s ] 7 3

S o m e o f t h e m a r g i n a l f i e l d s o f f e r e d f o r t h e 2 0 1 3 b i d r o u n d

( t a b l e ) 7 5

D a t a S o u r c e s 7 7

A b o u t t h e A u t h o r 8 0

B a c k c o v e r


8


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T here are about 70,000 known oil fields in

the world of which only about a 100 of

them classified as “giant fields” pro-

duce halve of the worlds’ daily pro-

duction. In 2008, former CEO of Shell Jeroen Van de

Veer said that “the era of easy to find oil was

coming to an end” There are evidences to support the view that the worlds con-

ventional oil is fast disappearing.

Present day production, as well as future finds, promises some form of marginali-

ty. Whether one is analyzing the finds in deep waters (above 1000ft {305m}), ul-

tra-deep waters (above 5000ft {1,524m}), shale oil of North America or the

small fields in Nigeria that holds small reserves; constrained by the absence of

delivery infrastructure and very inferior economics. It could be said that a sig-

nificant portion of the worlds’ reserves requires unconventional approaches to

bring on-stream.

Recent fall in global commodity price has introduced new dimensions in the way

the world produces, sells and consumes energy. With recent increases in levels

of domestic production in the US (which has contributed to the global glut) and

the potential return of Iran’s oil to the mainstream market, analyst are constant-

ly shifting paradigms on where - actually - is the new frontier. Sub-Saharan Afri-

ca (SSA) and West Africa in particular remains a top source of global production

and a valid destination for global Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Oil and Gas.

Although shaken by new finds and aggressive development plans in East Africa;

(Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda and Mozambique) West Africa is still the leader for

SSA. Led by Nigeria and Angola, this region still shows good investment appetite.

Nigeria’s Oil and Gas industry - which remains attractive in many aspects - is

still plagued by a plethora of challenges. Despite holding a huge estimated 38 bil-

lion barrels of proved reserves (second only to Libya in Africa) and about 187

trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas (9th largest gas reserves in the world), Nigeria’s

exploration activities has slowed down significantly in the last decade.

With about 2.3 billion reserves held in marginal and small fields and a growing penchant among the big International Oil Companies (IOCs) for deep and ultra -deep offshore assets Nigeria; small upstream players have huge opportunities in Nigeria. This report realizes the enormity of this opportunity and thus makes to shine a spotlight on it, for all stakeholders.

About The

Report


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N igeria holds

an estimated

2.3 billion

barrels of

crude oil reserves in over 183 fields classified as marginal. While investors

realize that these fields hold significant revenue potential, the Nigerian gov-

ernment, also realizes that these reserves can make significant contribution

towards national development.

Various policies has been implemented within the last decade to encourage

investment in these fields. And the government has continuously demon-

strated a willingness to facilitate the derivation of the national gains that

are tied with the development of these fields. Nigeria’s marginal

oil fields are fairly popular - for various reasons - in

Oil and Gas hubs around the world

Despite numerous hurdles in operating in the

Niger Delta basin, there is a huge appetite

for investment in these fields both locally

and internationally; good news!

Favorable conditions ranging from familiar

geology, to the availability of skilled talents

and the somewhat attractive regulation

around marginal oil f ields (such as “pioneer

status” that is granted to farmees, lower & sliding

scale royalties and other good fiscal arrangements) has been

identified.

However, the performance of the licenses awarded in 2003 by Nigeria’s De-

partment of Petroleum Resources (DPR) continues to douse investment op-

timism. Of about 30 licenses awarded in the last 14 years, Nigerian National

Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) reports (in its Annual Statistical Bulletin

(ASB) )that only nine fields are currently producing . Eighteen of these li-

censes has been classified as non -producing and requires the farmees to re-

linquish the assets after ten (10) years (having had the opportunity of a li-

cense renewal after the initial five years duration expired).

The failure rate recorded in the last exercise may not be indicative of the

current state of things. A lot has changed since 2003, that may have im-

proved the economics of marginal fields in Nigeria. The challenges are still

high nevertheless, but Nigerian’s government has continued to show a will-

ingness to support investors in many ways and operators are learning too.

In Nigeria

2.1% Nigeria’s produc-

tion from marginal

oil fields


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G iven the limited

amount of literature on

the problems, gains and outlook of marginal fields acquisition and operation in Ni-

geria; this report attempts to take the lead. It originates from many years of data

gathering and analysis, it will take a critical look at the issues associated with in-

vesting in Nigeria’s marginal oil fields.

Strategy

Bringing a marginal field on stream by its very definition is a task that can stretch

profitability to the brink. But many operators have gone ahead to make these

fields profitable. Many have gone further to increase value by raising production

levels, improving reserves replacement rations (RRR) and transitioning into

midcap and big upstream players.

The solution is strategic management. From integrated field development proce-

dures to ingenious gas monetization strategies and synergies that see cost of de-

livery infrastructure lowered through sharing. Analyst has suggested many crea-

tive pathways to lowering production cost per barrel for marginal oil field opera-

tors and thus extending the life of the field and the business itself.

In focus!

Strategizing

One Nigerian operator installed a topping plant with 1000 bbl/d ca-

pacity enhancing the overall economics of production in many ways.

A group of operators in a cluster rallied to develop a shared pipeline

infrastructure; lowering cost and improving deliverability.

One operator successfully negotiated a Reserved-Based Lending

(RBL) facility that led it to first oil.


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This report will examine the history of upstream financing in Nigerian marginal fields,

the recent developments, what has changed since the last licensing rounds, the various

financing models, the current and potential role of foreign investors and research

based findings on the suitability of a number of funding models such as Reserve-Based

Lending (RBL) and Revenue Based Financing (RBF).

The increasing importance of alternative funding and what government can do to low-

er the barrier to funding and optimize investment.

In addition to exploring the specific regulations that affect marginal oil fields, some of the

findings in this reports may mirror the wider upstream regulatory and investment envi-

ronment, as well as, the risks and their interplay with global and Nigerian trends; within

which the marginal fields may be considered a sub unit. In-spite of the numerous regula-

tory incentives available for marginal and small oil field operators, there are significant

areas of ambiguity worthy of redress. There are some regulations and fiscal arrange-

ments that lower the bankability of some assets. Notable among which is the ministerial

consent which adds substantial delays to mergers, acquisition and divestment-type trans-

action while limiting the securitization of investments - especially foreign investments.

Poor asset relinquishment practices and the uncertainty around the granting of pioneer

status to companies in petroleum operations with respect to the provisions of Nigeria’s

Industrial Development (Income Tax Relief) Act (IDITRA) can significantly increase the

risk facing the operators.

Technology

Successful marginal fields operators in Nigeria, typically have management teams

made of professionals who have had a long career with the IOCs. These people, bring

the technical and management skills that is needed to overcome the technical hur-

dles which are too often encountered. Working with an IOC is however, not a recipe for success; As

many have been led by entrepreneurs with mere savvy. A frequent element in this arrangement is the involve-

ment of a foreign technical partner, often with proven capability in small and marginal oil fields in other re-

gions. The report will review some technical partnership that have worked so far and how they are evolving.

Finance

Regulations


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I n predictive recog-

nition of the ever

increasing role of small E and P companies in Nigeria and the wider Gulf of

Guinea; this report attempts to bring into full and singular perspective, the nu-

merous elements that has formed the crux of the discourse around small and marginal

oil fields in Nigeria. Consequently, it will make a good read for diverse stakeholders in

small and marginal oil fields. Petroleum transaction advisers, financial institutions

(Banks & Insurance companies) alternative lenders, investors (both foreign and Nige-

rian) legal advisors and senior government officials, E and P service firms and stake-

holders in small and marginal oil field communities and regions.

For Who?

Figures

141 million barrels = reserves held in farmed out marginal oil

fields as at 2004.

302.6 million barrels = reserves held in farmed out marginal oil

fields in 2013.

24,0000 barrels per day = production volume for operator Mid-

western Oil.

US$2.5billion = the amount provided by indigenous banks for oil

field development within the last 5 years.


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C o m p a r a t i v e a n a l y s i s : 2 0 0 3 v 2 0 1 3

As marginal oil fields and their operators increasingly demonstrate their importance to

the oil and gas industry in Nigeria and the entire country as well. Government will invari-

ably make more efforts towards the creation of better operating environments and

friendlier regulations. Some elementary difference in the guidelines and bid process of

the 2003 farm out program and the failed 2013 campaign has been observed. While these

changes may be subtle they demonstrate a willingeness to enhance the program by DPR;

25% Maximum equity

The implication of this new requirement ,which was not there in the previous round, is that the

minimum number of equity holders in a single application is now four (4). This requirement

seems to stem from earlier experience, where improper and poor ownership structures had ad-

verse effects on operators activities. Ensuring that applicants consist (at least at the onset ) of

teams rather than sole promoter.

Timeline

Although the 2013 process was aborted, the guidelines specified a timeline of six (6) months from

start to finish. Obviously the length of time it took to complete the 2003 exercise (about 2 years)

may have contributed to some substandard practices in that exercise. There are unverified re-

ports of possible political interference in the process that led to licenses being given to entities

that did not merit it and consequently the massive failure recorded by most of the operators.

Selection committee

According some reports, the inclusion of external financial advisers was an effort to ensure that

applicants have the capability to raise the much needed funds for signature bonus and field devel-

opment. The last exercise and other licensing rounds in Nigeria had winners who were unable to

pay the stipulated signature bonus within the agreed timeframe (90 days for the last marginal

field exercise). The fact that financing MFs is often the most conspicuous hurdle for Nigerian op-

erators, ensuring that applicant are well positioned to raise the needed funds is a good control

measure.

Signature Bonus

A 100 percent increase in signature bonus was seen, from US$150,000 in 2003 to USD$300,00 in

2013. Some analyst believe that these bonuses are nevertheless too low and has recommended

an increase to deter unserious bidders.


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S y n e r g i s t i c s t r a t e g i e s

Collaboration on many facets may be key to saving much needed capital in

small and marginal oil fields. Operators can form real and logical partnerships

that will enable them share critical infrastructures. In recognition of the possi-

ble inability of marginal field operators to build and own systems such as pipe-

lines, The DPR provided equitable rules that will enable them access third party

infrastructure at a fair price and to reduce the incidence of exploitation and

possible stifling by the infrastructure owners or operator.

One study estimated the Fixed field OPEX for a marginal field in Nigeria to be

about US$1.25 million, while the variable OPEX is about US$3.5/bbl. Sharing

and collaborating on equipment use, product transport and manpower can

therefore, help save significant OPEX.

A group of operators who operate in some degree of proximity joined to build

shared export facility that would have been difficult for one operator to spon-

sor. The impact of their collaboration could be deduced from the fact that as at

2013, it was reported that over 75 percent of marginal field production in Nige-

ria came from this group of five (5) operators. It remains the duty of operators

to seek and forge viable synergies that would benefit all parties - both with

other marginal field operators, service providers and IOCs.


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G a s a s s e t s m o n e t i z a t i o n

Some of Nigeria’s marginal fields hold reasonable gas reserves. This provides a unique oppor-

tunity for operators that will implement the right strategy around gas monetization. Revenues

from gas assets can significantly improve the economics of these fields.

Presently, some marginal field operators still engage in gas flaring - for lack of access to gas pro-

cessing facilities and or capital to develop a proprietary one. This monetization opportunity is

evident in the fact that Nigeria has a huge and unexploited market for gas. In addition, govern-

ment is aggressively pursuing many projects geared at improving the gas infrastructure and pric-

ing for domestic market. In Nigeria, the newly unbundled National power company led to the

creation of many independent power generating companies, most of which operate gas-powered

plants. This has led to a proliferation of gas to power Project in Nigeria. Government is working

to stabilize gas pricing at US$2.5 per British Thermal Unit.

The gas opportunity in Nigeria is evident in the number of gas projects being executed by both

government and the private sectors.

There is a growing number of industrial gas consumers in Nigeria. Numerous new fertilizer and

cement companies in Nigeria are relying on gas for various industrial processes. This demand is

only projected to grow as Nigeria's new government makes efforts at revitalizing the industrial

and manufacturing sectors of the economy. This will see the revival of old steel manufacturing

plants and new ones as well. Mining and solid mineral processing may also receive a boost that will

grow the overall domestic demand for gas in Nigeria. In addition, experts has advocated for years for an

improved gas pricing for domestic market suppliers. Achieving the proposed $2.5 price will justify fur-

ther investments into gas processing my MF operators.

Some current and planned gas projects in Nigeria.

1. Independent Power Plants (IPP)

2. The West Africa Gas Pipeline

3. The Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) of Exxon Mobile Producing

4. Nigerian Liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG) Project (Shell/Elf/Agip)

5. Planned Brass LNG

6. Gas to Liquid Projects

7. Proposed New LNG plant by Mobile producing, Agip e.t.c

8. Planned LPG project of ChevronTexaco


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A P P E N D I X B

S o m e o f t h e m a r g i n a l f i e l d s o f f e r e d f o r t h e 2 0 1 3 b i d r o u n d

( L i c e n s i n g r o u n d w a s a b o r t e d )

O p e ra t o r : S h e l l P e t r o l e u m D e v e l o p m e n t C o ( S P D C )

| F i e l d N a m e | L o c a t i o n | T e r r a i n | B l o c k ( O M L ) | 2 P ( m m b b l )

1 . B e n i e l e O n s h o r e ( R i v e r s ) L a n d 1 1 2 4 . 4

2 . O b u z o O n s h o r e ( R i v e r s ) L a n d 1 1 1 0 6 . 2

3 . O f e m i n i O n s h o r e ( R i v e r s ) L a n d 1 1 1 1 . 6

4 . U z u a k a O n s h o r e ( R i v e r s ) L a n d 1 1 3 1 . 6

5 . E m o h u a O n s h o r e ( R i v e r s ) S w a m p 2 2 2 9

6 . E g b o l o m O n s h o r e ( R i v e r s ) L a n d 2 3 2 1 9 . 8

7 . O k i o r i O n s h o r e ( R i v e r s ) S w a m p 2 9 2 0 . 6

8 . I g b o m o t o r u O n s h o r e ( B a y e l s a ) S w a m p 3 3 2 9 . 5

9 . I g b o m o t o r u N O n s h o r e ( B a y e l s a ) S w a m p 3 3 3 4 . 4

1 0 . K o r o l e i / O s u a p e l e S W O n s h o r e ( B a y e l s a ) S w a m p 4 6 5 4 . 1

1 1 . B e n i n E s t u a r y O f f s h o r e ( D e l t a ) S h e l f 4 3 4 3 . 1

O p e ra t o r : C h e v r o n N i g e r i a Lt d ( C N L )

| F i e l d N a m e | L o c a t i o n | T e r r a i n | B l o c k ( O M L ) | 2 P ( m m b b l )

1 . O l u r e / B i m e / O m e f e j o O n s h o r e ( E d o ) S w a m p 4 9 3 6 . 8

2 . A l a o m a O n s h o r e ( I m o ) L a n d 5 3 7 5 9 . 9

3 . I h e o a m O n s h o r e ( I m o ) L a n d 5 3 3 4 . 4

4 . O b i r a / K u d o O f f s h o r e ( D e l t a ) L a n d 8 9 5 6 . 6

5 . A z a m a / R u t a O n s h o r e ( O n d o ) S w a m p 9 5 5 6 . 6

6 . M e t a O f f s h o r e ( O n d o ) L a n d 9 5 3 5 . 6

7 . O l o y e O f f s h o r e ( O n d o ) L a n d 9 5 7 6 . 7

8 . S h a n g o O f f s h o r e ( O n d o ) L a n d 9 5 2 6 . 7


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A b o u t T h e A u t h o r

C h i j i o k e K . M A M A

P rolific energy researcher and analyst, he has authored extensive analytical

works on diverse issues in Africa’s hydrocarbon economies. He has special

research interests in upstream petroleum policy, small/ marginal oil fields

solid minerals in Africa and Mergers & Acquisitions (M & A) in Oil and Gas.

He founded the column “Africa’s Barrel Equations” featured on major energy media

platforms such as BusinessDay West-Africa Energy and Sweetcrude Reports, where

he offers research-based insights and empirical views on Africa’s energy Sectors.

He has a Master’s degree in Business Administration (MBA) from the University of

Lagos, Nigeria and currently works as project manager/analyst at Ralmuof Konsult

Limited (RKL) in Lagos, Nigeria. In this role, he leads client engagements and project

execution in both the upstream and downstream sectors.

His short article “Nigeria’s marginal oil fields - open fields, closed gates” published in

2014, received much acclaim as a good discuss on the thrust and solutions of mar-

ginal field acquisition & operation in Nigeria. He gathers and structures data on is-

sues around marginal and small fields in Nigeria for productive analysis. Chijioke

currently advises a number of potential investors on the green and red elements of

investing in Nigeria’s marginal fields and was a keynote speaker in the maiden Africa

Small and Marginal Oil Fields Investment Conference, London 2015.

Chijioke is very skilled in business reporting/development, investment advisory and

policy evaluation. Has published over 20 analytical writings in major dailies in Africa

& executed multiple energy projects in Nigeria. Including petroleum asset mainte-

nance, Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) projects, bill payment systems for power

companies and vessel surveys

E m a i l : C h i j i o k e . m a m a @ y a h o o . c o m | M o b i l e : + 2 3 4 7 0 6 1 0 1 3 3 3 3

I N PA RT N E R S H I P W I T H E N E R G Y A N D C O R P O R AT E A F R I C A

w w w. e n e r g y c o r p o r a t e a f r i c a . c o m

10103 FONDREN ROAD | SUITE 321 | HOUSTON, TEXAS 77096 USA.


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marginal oil fields in nigeria: an investor's guide

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