march outlook 2012

8/2/2019 March Outlook 2012

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Housing market intelligence you can count on


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Annual MLS Sales, GTA

Source: CREA, CMHC forecast


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Employment TrendToronto CMA (ths.)

Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC adjustment


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Debt-to-Assets Ratio (%)Canadian Households

Source: Statistics Canada


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Growth in Household Credit

(2010M01=100)



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Debt Service Ratios (%)



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Mortgages in Arrears = 0.38% (ON = 0.28%)

Credit Cards in Delinquency = 1.06%

Avg. Home Equity of Mortgage Holders = 51%

Homeowners with Less than 10% Equity = 4%

Mortgage Holders Vulnerable to a 1% Rise in Interest Rates = 12%

Mortgages with a Fixed Rate = 60%

Mortgages with Amortization Less than 25 years = 78%

Source: Canadian Bankers Association, CAAMP 2011 Annual State of the Residential Mortgage Market in Canada


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5-Year Fixed Rates



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Growth in Listings vs. Confidence(2006=100)

Source: CREA, Conference Board of Canada


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Growth in Listings vs. Reno Spending(2006=100)

*Ontario spending on home alterations and improvements

Source: CREA, Statistics Canada


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MLS Average Prices, GTA

Source: CREA, Statistics Canada, CMHC calculation


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GTA Housing Price vs. Income Growth

(2001=100)

Source: Statistics Canada, CREA, CMHC

H k ll


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Length of Time to Save 5%*In Years

*Based on prevailing average gross household incomes, average MLS selling prices, and assuming a 5% annual savings rate


H i k i lli


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Actual vs. Required* Income to Buy

Avg. Priced Home

*Based on average MLS sales prices, 5% down payment, maximum allowable amortization , and 5-year fixed mortgage rates


H i k t i t lli t


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Share of GTA MLS SalesUnder $400K

Source: TREB, CMHC calculation

H i k t i t lli t


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Growth in MLS Sales Trend




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Fastest Selling AreasBased on Annual MLS Sales Growth for the last 12 months




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Fastest Appreciating AreasBased on Annual MLS Price Growth for the last 12 months




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GTA MLSCondo Sales % of Total

Source: CREA



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GTA New Condo Sales

Source: Urbanation Inc., CMHC



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Source: Statistics Canada, Ontario Ministry of Finance, CMHC

Total New Home Sales, GTA

HH Formation



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Share of GTA Condos Used

as Rental

Source: CMHC



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Average GTA CondoRental Vacancy Rate

Source: CMHC

1.1%



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s g e e ge ce y c c

GTA Population Growth: 25-34

Source: Statistics Canada, Ontario Ministry of Finance



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g g y

GTA Condo Prices Per Square Foot

Source: Urbanation, CMHC



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g g y

Growth in MLS Active Listings

Feb 2012, Year-over-year



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g g y

GTA MLS Condo Prices

Monthly Growth Trend

Source: TREB



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Newly Completed Units*:

Carrying Cost vs. Rent

*Based on average prices and rents for a 600 square foot unit. Carrying cost assumes 20% down

payment, 25-year amortization and includes maintenance fees and property taxes

Source: TREB, Urbanation Inc., CMHC



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Ownership demand should remain flat

Fewer FTBs and more listings should lead to slower price

and mortgage credit growth

Considerable opportunities exist within submarkets andhousing types

Condo investor activity is due for a pull-back, which will helpstabilize the market

Summary of Key Points

march outlook 2012

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