interim results...sa cement cost drivers sources: * stats sa, # inet bridge, ∆price in r/t at...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Interim ResultsMarch 2012
Paul Stuiver - CEO
2
Agenda
Context
Financial Overview
Divisional Overview
Outlook
Questions
3
Context
• For the six months from October 2011 to March 2012• The positive trend in overall South African cement demand continues• PPC’s total cement sales down 3%
• Mainly due to weak demand in high exposure areas (Western Cape and Botswana)• Strategy to maintain sensible selling prices
• PPC margins stabilised• PPC cement selling price increases of 6% yoy achieved in SA, but inadequate
to recover rising input costs (primarily electricity and diesel)
• Key events• Modernisation of Western Cape factories progressing well• Significant headway on African projects• Good progress with the Zimbabwean indigenisation plan• Integration of Quarries of Botswana acquisition completed• Acquisition of Pronto ready mix approved by Competition Commission
4
Context
< -10%
Cement industry demand growth by province / countryGrowth based on PPC estimates for Oct 2011 to Mar 2012 compared with Oct 2010 to Mar 2011
0 to -10% >0%
5
Financial Overview
6
F2012 – H1 Financial overview
• Revenue R3.53bn 8% [R3.26bn]
• Group EBITDA R1.09bn 5% [R1.04bn]
• Group EBITDA margin 31.0% [31.8%]
• Cash generated from ops. R0.89bn -1% [R0.90bn]
• Operating profit R0.86bn 4% [R0.82bn]
• Headline earnings per share 77.6 cps 8% [71.8 cps]
• Interim dividend 38 cps 9% [35 cps]
7
• R28m for business development and other projects
• R16m IFRS 2 charge for past retention schemes
• Includes R53m as the final STC payment (2011: R74m)
• Includes 30% increases in electricity and diesel prices
F2012 – H1 Summary income statement
2012R million
2011R million
% Change
Revenue 3 529 3 257 8
Cost of sales 2 347 2 120 (11)
Gross profit 1 182 1 137 4
Administration and other operating expenditure 324 314 (3)
Operating profit 858 823 4
Net finance costs 172 170 (1)
Share of associates’ retained profit 2 7
Profit before taxation 688 660 4
Taxation 281 282
Profit for the period 407 378 8
EPS and HEPS (cents) 78 72 8
DPS (cents) 38 35 9
1
2
3
8
F2012 – H1 EBITDA analysis
90
110
130
150
170
190
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007H1
2007H2
2008H1
2008H2
2009H1
2009H2
2010H1
2010H2
2011H1
2011H2
2012H1
EBITDA Margin vs Cement Demand
Group EBITDA Margin Indexed Cement Volumes (RHS)
9
• Raised minimum stock levels to ensure customer service and some inventory build ahead of peak winter electricity tariffs
• R58m for De Hoek upgrade
• R137m operational capex
F2012 – H1 Summary balance sheet
2012R million
2011R million
ASSETSNon-current assets
Property, plant and equipment 4 318 4 182Intangibles 129 96Other non-current assets 208 204
Current assetsInventories 802 660Trade and other receivables 896 867Cash and cash equivalents 121 260
TOTAL ASSETS 6 474 6 269
EQUITY AND LIABILITIESCapital and reserves 751 552Non-current liabilitiesDeferred taxation 754 635Long-term borrowings 2 686 2 641Provisions and other non-current liabilities 413 394
Current liabilitiesShort-term borrowings 1 166 1 378Trade and other payables 704 669
TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES 6 474 6 269
4
5
10
• R42m acquisition of Quarries of Botswana
• R89m purchases of two tranches (2011 & 2012) of shares for employee incentive and retention scheme
F2012 – H1 Summary cash flow statement
2012R million
2011R million
Cash flow from operating activities
Operating cash flows before movement in working capital 1 091 1 054
Net investment in working capital (202) (157)
Net finance costs paid (105) (109)
Taxation paid (261) (284)
Cash available from operations 523 504
Capital investment in PPE (277) (231)
Other investing activities (131) -
Net funding raised 287 442
Net cash flow before dividends paid 402 715
Dividends paid (505) (695)
Net cash outflow for the period (103) 20
6
11
F2012 – H1 Capital expenditure
H1 2012
R million
H12011
R million
Total for FY2012e
R millionWestern Cape modernisation – phase 1 (De Hoek) 58 20 150Western Cape modernisation – phase 2 (Riebeeck) 3 2 20PPC Zimbabwe 38 16 70Operational capex 178 193 300 - 400Total capital expenditure 277 231 540 - 640
12
• Secondary tax on companies (STC)• STC change more beneficial on earnings for companies with higher dividend
yield • The change from STC to withholding tax in April 2012 did not impact H1• Will have minimal impact on the full 2012 financial year; expected to reduce
effective tax rate from 38% to ~36.5% and increase HEPS by ~2%• From 2013, the absence of STC is expected to result in the effective tax rate
reducing to ~31% to 32% and increase HEPS by ~8%
• Dividends• In spite of the termination of STC, we do not anticipate changing the dividend
cover range of 1.2 to 1.5 times
• Indications are that the timing of our modernisation and expansion strategies can be accommodated within our existing debt headroom
F2012 – H1 STC and Dividends
13
Empowerment and indigenisation
• South Africa• Phase I of PPC’s empowerment which was concluded in December 2008
remains intact • PPC is currently in discussions to meet the 2014 BEE requirements in order to
secure its mining rights • PPC will communicate with shareholders as soon as key terms have been
finalised
• Zimbabwe• Continue to engage with authorities• Good progress towards finalisation of our indigenisation plan
14
Divisional Overview
15
SA cement demand
• SA market• Industry cement sales grew by >10% yoy for five months to February 2012• Strong recovery in the Eastern Cape due to new infrastructure projects• All producers introduced new products
• Mostly in the lower end of the market• Cheap imports continue (approx. 5% of demand, mainly in KZN)• PPC countered the trend by improving product quality
• PPC SA sales lagged industry due to:• Continued weak performance in the Western Cape• Pricing of cheaper products
• However, the PPC 15% more! value propositionis increasingly gaining ground
16
Botswana cement demand
• Botswana market• Double-digit decline in demand due to
Slow-down in government spending oninfrastructure
• Pricing more competitive
17
PPC SA cement input costs
Key cost components for
H1 F2012
Proportion of cost of sales
(R/t)Movement
(R/t)
Distribution 30% +10%
Salaries (R) 10% -1%
Depreciation (R) 10% +6%
Coal 10% +2%
Electricity 9% +30%
Maintenance 7% +1%
Packaging 4% +8%
Other 20% +10%
• Approximately 1/3 of distribution cost is diesel (i.e. 10% of total cost of sales)
1
2
2
• Total energy-related costs are 30%
• 30% increase in electricity and diesel prices translated into 6% increase in overall costs
2
18
SA cement cost drivers
Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆ Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender), ^ PPC data and calculations
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
PPI* Ordinary &extendedcement*$
Cement (Retail)* PrivateRemuneration#
Coal#Δ Diesel# Electricity^
Cement prices compared to key input costs2002 = 100
Represents 40% of costs
19
Western Cape modernisation project update
• Phase 1 – De Hoek Kiln 6 • New clinker cooler and coal
firing system will improve efficiency
• Commissioning on track forJune 2012
• On time and within budget of R280m
• Phase 2 – New Riebeeck Kiln 3 • EIA – initial feedback received from authorities and addressing their concerns• Supplier selection and detailed engineering continues• Budget estimate remains at R1.3bn
Clinker coolerFilter system
New generation grate clinker cooler and dust abatement equipment for Kiln 6
20
Zimbabwe
• Demand continues to grow by double digits• Still mostly retail customers and concrete product
manufacturers• Product range is being aligned with SA, but
allowing for local brand awareness and market requirements
• Production problems tempered the good sales• Major transformer failure during H1 required
clinker imports from SA at higher transport costbeing required
• Production has since resumed and planned outputs are being achieved
21
Lime and Aggregates divisions
• Lime• Volumes up 6% due to higher demand from steel and alloys industries as well as
increased exports to Zambia and the DRC• Combination of rising demand, better selling prices and good cost control
resulted in operating profit increasing to R95m (2011: R61m)
• Aggregates• Sales volumes increased by ~20% but pricing remained very competitive• Quarries of Botswana is now fully integrated and boosted aggregate sales
volumes• Operating profit declined to R8m (2011: R11m) due to pricing pressures and
once-off integration costs for the newly acquired quarries
• Readymix (Pronto Holdings)• Unconditionally approved by Competition Commission during March 2012• Will only contribute marginally as an associate during 2012
22
Outlook
23
Outlook – “Rest of Africa” strategy
DRC
RSA
MalawiZambia
MoroccoAlgeria
Cameroon
E Guinea
Nigeria
Madagascar
EgyptLibya
Tunisia
Western Sahara
MauritaniaNiger Chad
Ethiopia
Somalia
Djibouti
Angola
Botswana Mozambique
Gabon
Senegal
Gambia
Namibia
GhanaTogo
Burkina Faso
Mali
BeninLiberia
Ivory Coast
CongoKenya
Central AR
Guinea
Sudan
South Sudan
Tanzania
Zimbabwe
Current Region
Target Region
Population (millions)
64 350
Annual per capita consumption (kg)
200 55
Current cement demand (million tons/yr)
14 20
Current production capacity(million tons/yr)
18 16
Target operating region (2015/16)
Current operating region (2012)
24
Outlook – “Rest of Africa” strategy (cont.)
• Strategy remains to grow revenue outside SA to 40-50% by 2016 (2012 H1 = 19%)
• Limited acquisition possibilities so focussing on greenfields opportunities• Plant size between 0.6 and 1 million ton per annum• Capex lower than US$200 per annual ton capacity including services and
mining equipment• Securing 30 years of adequate limestone reserves and suitable local partner is
time-consuming, but crucial for sustainability
• Projects planned or under investigation• CINAT plant in DRC – still awaiting outcome of tender• Detailed feasibility on four other projects in target area
• One PPC board approved – waiting for third party• Early feasibility on three new projects commenced
25
Outlook
• Trading conditions will remain challenging for the remainder of the year
• Demand in Botswana likely to remain depressed during the second half
• Cement demand in Zimbabwe continues to grow and should make a better contribution to the group in the second half
• Positive trend in SA cement demand expected to continue • Supported by SA government’s continued commitment to increase
infrastructure spend and their initiatives to unlock delivery constraints • Construction sector is notoriously cyclical, but we seem to have passed the
bottom of the cycle
26
Questions?
27
Investor contacts
Paul Stuiver Chief Executive Officer
Tryphosa Ramano Chief Financial Officer
Kevin Odendaal Investor Relations
Azola Lowan Investor Relations
Tel. +27 11 386 9000
www.ppc.co.za
28
Disclaimer
This document including, without limitation, those statements concerning the demand outlook,PPC’s expansion projects and its capital resources and expenditure, contain certain forward-looking statements and views. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk anduncertainty and although PPC believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-lookingstatements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to becorrect. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-lookingstatements as a result of, among other factors, changes in economic and market conditions,success of business and operating initiatives, changes in the regulatory environment, othergovernment action and business and operational risk management.
Whilst PPC takes reasonable care to ensure the accuracy of the information presented, PPCaccepts no responsibility for any damages be it consequential, indirect, special or incidental,whether foreseeable or unforeseeable, based on claims arising out of misrepresentation ornegligence arising in connection with a forward-looking statement. This document is notintended to contain any profit forecasts or profit estimates, and the information published inthis document is unaudited.