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1 Interim Results March 2012 Paul Stuiver - CEO

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Page 1: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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Interim ResultsMarch 2012

Paul Stuiver - CEO

Page 2: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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Agenda

Context

Financial Overview

Divisional Overview

Outlook

Questions

Page 3: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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Context

• For the six months from October 2011 to March 2012• The positive trend in overall South African cement demand continues• PPC’s total cement sales down 3%

• Mainly due to weak demand in high exposure areas (Western Cape and Botswana)• Strategy to maintain sensible selling prices

• PPC margins stabilised• PPC cement selling price increases of 6% yoy achieved in SA, but inadequate

to recover rising input costs (primarily electricity and diesel)

• Key events• Modernisation of Western Cape factories progressing well• Significant headway on African projects• Good progress with the Zimbabwean indigenisation plan• Integration of Quarries of Botswana acquisition completed• Acquisition of Pronto ready mix approved by Competition Commission

Page 4: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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Context

< -10%

Cement industry demand growth by province / countryGrowth based on PPC estimates for Oct 2011 to Mar 2012 compared with Oct 2010 to Mar 2011

0 to -10% >0%

Page 5: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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Financial Overview

Page 6: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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F2012 – H1 Financial overview

• Revenue R3.53bn 8% [R3.26bn]

• Group EBITDA R1.09bn 5% [R1.04bn]

• Group EBITDA margin 31.0% [31.8%]

• Cash generated from ops. R0.89bn -1% [R0.90bn]

• Operating profit R0.86bn 4% [R0.82bn]

• Headline earnings per share 77.6 cps 8% [71.8 cps]

• Interim dividend 38 cps 9% [35 cps]

Page 7: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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• R28m for business development and other projects

• R16m IFRS 2 charge for past retention schemes

• Includes R53m as the final STC payment (2011: R74m)

• Includes 30% increases in electricity and diesel prices

F2012 – H1 Summary income statement

2012R million

2011R million

% Change

Revenue 3 529 3 257 8

Cost of sales 2 347 2 120 (11)

Gross profit 1 182 1 137 4

Administration and other operating expenditure 324 314 (3)

Operating profit 858 823 4

Net finance costs 172 170 (1)

Share of associates’ retained profit 2 7

Profit before taxation 688 660 4

Taxation 281 282

Profit for the period 407 378 8

EPS and HEPS (cents) 78 72 8

DPS (cents) 38 35 9

1

2

3

Page 8: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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F2012 – H1 EBITDA analysis

 90

 110

 130

 150

 170

 190

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007H1

2007H2

2008H1

2008H2

2009H1

2009H2

2010H1

2010H2

2011H1

2011H2

2012H1

EBITDA Margin vs Cement Demand

Group EBITDA Margin Indexed Cement Volumes (RHS)

Page 9: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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• Raised minimum stock levels to ensure customer service and some inventory build ahead of peak winter electricity tariffs

• R58m for De Hoek upgrade

• R137m operational capex

F2012 – H1 Summary balance sheet

2012R million

2011R million

ASSETSNon-current assets

Property, plant and equipment 4 318 4 182Intangibles 129 96Other non-current assets 208 204

Current assetsInventories 802 660Trade and other receivables 896 867Cash and cash equivalents 121 260

TOTAL ASSETS 6 474 6 269

EQUITY AND LIABILITIESCapital and reserves 751 552Non-current liabilitiesDeferred taxation 754 635Long-term borrowings 2 686 2 641Provisions and other non-current liabilities 413 394

Current liabilitiesShort-term borrowings 1 166 1 378Trade and other payables 704 669

TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES 6 474 6 269

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5

Page 10: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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• R42m acquisition of Quarries of Botswana

• R89m purchases of two tranches (2011 & 2012) of shares for employee incentive and retention scheme

F2012 – H1 Summary cash flow statement

2012R million

2011R million

Cash flow from operating activities

Operating cash flows before movement in working capital 1 091 1 054

Net investment in working capital (202) (157)

Net finance costs paid (105) (109)

Taxation paid (261) (284)

Cash available from operations 523 504

Capital investment in PPE (277) (231)

Other investing activities (131) -

Net funding raised 287 442

Net cash flow before dividends paid 402 715

Dividends paid (505) (695)

Net cash outflow for the period (103) 20

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Page 11: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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F2012 – H1 Capital expenditure

H1 2012

R million

H12011

R million

Total for FY2012e

R millionWestern Cape modernisation – phase 1 (De Hoek) 58 20 150Western Cape modernisation – phase 2 (Riebeeck) 3 2 20PPC Zimbabwe 38 16 70Operational capex 178 193 300 - 400Total capital expenditure 277 231 540 - 640

Page 12: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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• Secondary tax on companies (STC)• STC change more beneficial on earnings for companies with higher dividend

yield • The change from STC to withholding tax in April 2012 did not impact H1• Will have minimal impact on the full 2012 financial year; expected to reduce

effective tax rate from 38% to ~36.5% and increase HEPS by ~2%• From 2013, the absence of STC is expected to result in the effective tax rate

reducing to ~31% to 32% and increase HEPS by ~8%

• Dividends• In spite of the termination of STC, we do not anticipate changing the dividend

cover range of 1.2 to 1.5 times

• Indications are that the timing of our modernisation and expansion strategies can be accommodated within our existing debt headroom

F2012 – H1 STC and Dividends

Page 13: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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Empowerment and indigenisation

• South Africa• Phase I of PPC’s empowerment which was concluded in December 2008

remains intact • PPC is currently in discussions to meet the 2014 BEE requirements in order to

secure its mining rights • PPC will communicate with shareholders as soon as key terms have been

finalised

• Zimbabwe• Continue to engage with authorities• Good progress towards finalisation of our indigenisation plan

Page 14: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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Divisional Overview

Page 15: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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SA cement demand

• SA market• Industry cement sales grew by >10% yoy for five months to February 2012• Strong recovery in the Eastern Cape due to new infrastructure projects• All producers introduced new products

• Mostly in the lower end of the market• Cheap imports continue (approx. 5% of demand, mainly in KZN)• PPC countered the trend by improving product quality

• PPC SA sales lagged industry due to:• Continued weak performance in the Western Cape• Pricing of cheaper products

• However, the PPC 15% more! value propositionis increasingly gaining ground

Page 16: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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Botswana cement demand

• Botswana market• Double-digit decline in demand due to

Slow-down in government spending oninfrastructure

• Pricing more competitive

Page 17: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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PPC SA cement input costs

Key cost components for

H1 F2012

Proportion of cost of sales

(R/t)Movement

(R/t)

Distribution 30% +10%

Salaries (R) 10% -1%

Depreciation (R) 10% +6%

Coal 10% +2%

Electricity 9% +30%

Maintenance 7% +1%

Packaging 4% +8%

Other 20% +10%

• Approximately 1/3 of distribution cost is diesel (i.e. 10% of total cost of sales)

1

2

2

• Total energy-related costs are 30%

• 30% increase in electricity and diesel prices translated into 6% increase in overall costs

2

Page 18: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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SA cement cost drivers

Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆ Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender), ^ PPC data and calculations

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

PPI* Ordinary &extendedcement*$

Cement (Retail)* PrivateRemuneration#

Coal#Δ Diesel# Electricity^

Cement prices compared to key input costs2002 = 100

Represents 40% of costs

Page 19: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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Western Cape modernisation project update

• Phase 1 – De Hoek Kiln 6 • New clinker cooler and coal

firing system will improve efficiency

• Commissioning on track forJune 2012

• On time and within budget of R280m

• Phase 2 – New Riebeeck Kiln 3 • EIA – initial feedback received from authorities and addressing their concerns• Supplier selection and detailed engineering continues• Budget estimate remains at R1.3bn

Clinker coolerFilter system

New generation grate clinker cooler and dust abatement equipment for Kiln 6

Page 20: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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Zimbabwe

• Demand continues to grow by double digits• Still mostly retail customers and concrete product

manufacturers• Product range is being aligned with SA, but

allowing for local brand awareness and market requirements

• Production problems tempered the good sales• Major transformer failure during H1 required

clinker imports from SA at higher transport costbeing required

• Production has since resumed and planned outputs are being achieved

Page 21: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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Lime and Aggregates divisions

• Lime• Volumes up 6% due to higher demand from steel and alloys industries as well as

increased exports to Zambia and the DRC• Combination of rising demand, better selling prices and good cost control

resulted in operating profit increasing to R95m (2011: R61m)

• Aggregates• Sales volumes increased by ~20% but pricing remained very competitive• Quarries of Botswana is now fully integrated and boosted aggregate sales

volumes• Operating profit declined to R8m (2011: R11m) due to pricing pressures and

once-off integration costs for the newly acquired quarries

• Readymix (Pronto Holdings)• Unconditionally approved by Competition Commission during March 2012• Will only contribute marginally as an associate during 2012

Page 22: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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Outlook

Page 23: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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Outlook – “Rest of Africa” strategy

DRC

RSA

MalawiZambia

MoroccoAlgeria

Cameroon

E Guinea

Nigeria

Madagascar

EgyptLibya

Tunisia

Western Sahara

MauritaniaNiger Chad

Ethiopia

Somalia

Djibouti

Angola

Botswana Mozambique

Gabon

Senegal

Gambia

Namibia

GhanaTogo

Burkina Faso

Mali

BeninLiberia

Ivory Coast

CongoKenya

Central AR

Guinea

Sudan

South Sudan

Tanzania

Zimbabwe

Current Region

Target Region

Population (millions)

64 350

Annual per capita consumption (kg)

200 55

Current cement demand (million tons/yr)

14 20

Current production capacity(million tons/yr)

18 16

Target operating region (2015/16)

Current operating region (2012)

Page 24: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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Outlook – “Rest of Africa” strategy (cont.)

• Strategy remains to grow revenue outside SA to 40-50% by 2016 (2012 H1 = 19%)

• Limited acquisition possibilities so focussing on greenfields opportunities• Plant size between 0.6 and 1 million ton per annum• Capex lower than US$200 per annual ton capacity including services and

mining equipment• Securing 30 years of adequate limestone reserves and suitable local partner is

time-consuming, but crucial for sustainability

• Projects planned or under investigation• CINAT plant in DRC – still awaiting outcome of tender• Detailed feasibility on four other projects in target area

• One PPC board approved – waiting for third party• Early feasibility on three new projects commenced

Page 25: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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Outlook

• Trading conditions will remain challenging for the remainder of the year

• Demand in Botswana likely to remain depressed during the second half

• Cement demand in Zimbabwe continues to grow and should make a better contribution to the group in the second half

• Positive trend in SA cement demand expected to continue • Supported by SA government’s continued commitment to increase

infrastructure spend and their initiatives to unlock delivery constraints • Construction sector is notoriously cyclical, but we seem to have passed the

bottom of the cycle

Page 26: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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Questions?

Page 27: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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Investor contacts

Paul Stuiver Chief Executive Officer

Tryphosa Ramano Chief Financial Officer

Kevin Odendaal Investor Relations

Azola Lowan Investor Relations

Tel. +27 11 386 9000

www.ppc.co.za

Page 28: Interim Results...SA cement cost drivers Sources: * Stats SA, # INET Bridge, ∆Price in R/t at Richards Bay, $ Price at factory gate for 32.5 and 42.5 class cement (includes 1 blender),

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Disclaimer

This document including, without limitation, those statements concerning the demand outlook,PPC’s expansion projects and its capital resources and expenditure, contain certain forward-looking statements and views. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk anduncertainty and although PPC believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-lookingstatements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to becorrect. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-lookingstatements as a result of, among other factors, changes in economic and market conditions,success of business and operating initiatives, changes in the regulatory environment, othergovernment action and business and operational risk management.

Whilst PPC takes reasonable care to ensure the accuracy of the information presented, PPCaccepts no responsibility for any damages be it consequential, indirect, special or incidental,whether foreseeable or unforeseeable, based on claims arising out of misrepresentation ornegligence arising in connection with a forward-looking statement. This document is notintended to contain any profit forecasts or profit estimates, and the information published inthis document is unaudited.