webinar presentation markers: med basin, persian gulf ......cement and clinker price markers: med...

Cement and Clinker Price

Markers: Med Basin, Persian

Gulf-Arabian Sea and East

Africa

2020 World Cement, Clinker &

Slag Sea-Based Trade

Webinar presentation

CW Group LLC | T: +1-702-866-9474 | F: +1-928-832-4762 | Connecticut, USA

April 9, 2020

Client Confidential Information

Agenda

▪ Introduction to CW Group

▪ Cementitious Materials Sea-Based Trade

2020 highlights

− Overview and methodology

− Macroeconomic overview

− Market overview

− Market outlook

− Closing remarks

2


Presenters

3

▪ Responsible for providing qualitative and quantitative analysis for

CW Research. Manages BD for research and consulting projects

in Middle East, Asia, and Africa.

▪ Bachelor’s Degree in International Business and Economics from

Saint Peter’s University, New Jersey, US and a Master of Science

degree in International Business from Seton Hall University, New

Jersey, USA

Carolina PereiraManager, Advisory and

Research

[email protected]

M:+351 917 314 391

▪ Responsible for the qualitative and quantitative analysis for CW

Research's price and volume assessments in the building

material and heavy industrial sectors. Leads the Porto office.

▪ Degree in Management from Coimbra Business School, Portugal

Juliana VieiraBusiness Analyst

[email protected]

M:+351 918 285 753

▪ Executes quantitative analysis for CW Research's price and

volume assessments in the building material and heavy industrial

sectors. Experience in Cement industry.

▪ Degree in International Relations from ESPM, Rio de Janeiro,

Brazil

Prashant SinghAssociate Director

[email protected]

M:+91 887 960 7047

mailto:[email protected]




4

About the CW Group

CEMENT, BUILDING

MATERIALS &

CONSTRUCTION

STEEL, METALS &

MINING

CHEMICALS DRY BULK CARGO,

PORTS AND

INFRASTRUCTURE

POWER, ENERGY

AND SOLID FUELS

Seasoned expertsBusiness &

technicalNetwork & access Proprietary data

STRATEGY AND M&A

ADVISORYBUSINESS DECISION

SUPPORTMEDIA & MEETINGS

Strategic advisory

Management consulting

M&A advice

Transaction support

Due diligence

Syndicated market /

industry study reports

Reference forecasts

Data and chart-books

Commodity price

assessments

Market reporting services

Newsletters

Online data access

Publications

Meetings

Advisory Research Media


5

Cementitious Materials Sea-Based Trade:

2020 update highlights


What does it include

6

▪ CW Research’s “World cement, clinker & slag sea-

based trade” report provides an in-depth and data-

oriented analysis of seaborne cement, clinker,

slag (GBFS) and fly-ash trade

▪ Trade flows, pricing, trading infrastructure

required for this specialized dry bulk cargo shipping

sector are detailed, while providing a comprehensive

review of terminals, suppliers of cementitious

materials to support strategic decisions buy buyers,

sellers and shippers alike.

▪ The report also projects key gray cement, white

cement, ,slag, fly ash and clinker supply demand

gaps that will sustain world cement trading in for

the next few years.

▪ Key exporters of cementitious materials, their

facilities, and traders are profiled, as well as key

ocean-going cement carrier operations and their

vessels.

For a complete listing of focus countries as well as more details visit:

https://www.cwgrp.com/research/research-products/product/287-world-

cement,-clinker-slag-sea-based-trade-forecast-through-2024

https://www.cwgrp.com/research/research-products/product/287-world-cement,-clinker-slag-sea-based-trade-forecast-through-2024


Methodology

7

For a complete listing of focus countries as well as more details visit

https://www.cwgrp.com/research/research-products/product/287-world-

cement,-clinker-slag-sea-based-trade-forecast-through-2024

Country-to-country trade

volumes matrices for each

cementitious material

CW directory of terminals and

plants- updated to 2020

Directory of waterside

terminals, grinding units and

plants by region, country and

company

Mapping of all currently

operating trading facilities,

including waterside plants and

cement and slag grinding units

CW directory of cement

carriers

Analysis and mapping of

cement carriers by age and

dead weight tonnage

Ports and customs

cementitious volumes analysis

Current and historic

cementitious sea-trade volume

by route and type of packing

CW forecasts:

o Gray cement production,

utilization rates,

consumption

o White cement production,

utilization rates,

consumption

o Global cementitious trade

forecast

o Steel production forecast

o Coal combustion forecast

Cementitious sea-based trade

forecast by route

Integrated analysis of sea-

based cementitious trade

https://www.cwgrp.com/research/research-products/product/287-world-cement,-clinker-slag-sea-based-trade-forecast-through-2024


8

Macroeconomic overview


The glut of dismal economic statistics has forced the IMF to revise its

forecasts multiple times in the past few months. Is that enough?

World Economic Outlook (% GDP)

Source: International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook

-2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%

China

Russia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan,and Pakistan

Latin America and the Caribbean

Emerging and developing Asia

Emerging and developing Europe

2020E 2019

▪ The coronavirus pandemic has

created havoc in the global

economy since mid January

▪ Growth forecasts now predict a

global recession

▪ Some estimates say that the

Chinese economy itself may not

grow or even contract

▪ Commodity export markets will

likely bear the hit with the global

slowdown

▪ A contraction in the US economy

is now viewed as possible

▪ Collapse of oil prices has changed

the economic dynamics of OPEC

and other oil producers


The explosion of COVID-19 pandemic has taken the world by

storm, its impact is still unfolding at this moment…

10

Source: CW Research, GRN data base


The BDI index received a severe jolt in February as the impact of

Covid-19 spread globally, but showing signs of recovery

11

Source: Bloomberg, CW Research

Baltic Dry Index

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

• The BDI fell to a multi-year low in February 2020 with massive lockdowns crippling trading activity.

• Since then, especially with China reopening, demand sentiment has received a boost with some

players taking advantage of the low rates to book shipping charters


12

Market overview


Out of the total global cementitious materials demand, less than 2

percent is traded…

13

Global consumption of cementitious products

Sources: CW Research

2015 2017 2019 2020E

Gray Cement Clinker White Cement Fly Ash Slag

CAGR

‘15-’20E-2% -2% 1% 1% 2%

Overall

CAGR:

-1%

▪ Prior to the coronavirus

outbreak, demand growth

had been expected for all

cementitious segments

based on a positive outlook

for the global economy in

2020

▪ With construction activity

globally at a standstill,

demand for cement and

clinker is expected to suffer a

decline

▪ For some regions, especially

Latin America, it may take

longer to return to 2019

levels, as the economic

outlook for the region had

been a cause for concern

even prior to the pandemic


14

… out of the total cementitious trade volume, an estimated 80

percent is traded by sea

Total traded volume of cementitious materials by sea


2015 2017 2019 2020E

Gray Cement Clinker Slag White Cement Fly Ash

CAGR

‘15-’20E-3% 2% 1% 3% 2%

Overall

CAGR:

-0.2%


Modern terminals are witnessing a paradigm shift towards state-

of-the-art infrastructure

15

Trade facilities overview


MedCem Marine Hub, Turkey

▪ The port supports export business and helps

deliver key raw materials and fuel to the plant.

▪ Modern storage and handling technology ensures

efficient, high-capacity loading operations at the

terminal.

Jurong Port’s cement terminal, Singapore

▪ Common user cement terminal, handling more

than 90% of Singapore’s bulk cement imports.

▪ Sited on a compact 5.3ha plot, the terminal has an

annual handling capacity of over 7.5 million tons

and has state of the art infrastructure.

Beton Provincial’s terminal, Québec Canada

▪ Single-user cement terminal with a storage capacity of

180,000 tons.

▪ Receives cement from two suppliers in the

Mediterranean in Supramax vessels, a third domestic

supply by self-discharging cement carriers, as well as

GGBS and fly ash.


In 2020, inter-Asia Pacific cementitious trade are expected to

make for almost half of the total seaborne trade

16

North Africa

West C

oast U

S

Western Europe

and Baltics

3.5

5.3

0.5

0.7

0.6

3.5

13.7

78.9

Asia Pacific

18.6

22.1

Black Sea and

intra-Med Basin

Middle East

0.5

Main sea trade routes for cementitious products (mn tons, 2020E)


Note:* Includes volumes for the main trade routes, not conclusive for the absolute total


17

Market outlook


2020E 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F

Gray Cement Clinker Slag White Cement Fly Ash

Environmental regulations will provide impetus for the growing

share of clinker trade by 2025

41%

18

Cementitious materials outlook by product (mn tons)

Source: CW Research

CAGR

2%


2025F


Black Sea and intra-Med Basin are expected to witness the fastest

growth rate in terms of export volumes

19

Main sea trade routes for cementitious products (mn tons, 2025F)

North Africa

We

st C

oa

st U

S

Western Europe

and Baltics

2.4

8.1

1.6

1.6

0.8

3.2

1.6

84.8

Asia Pacific

14.5

27.5

Black Sea and

intra-Med Basin

Middle East

Great Lakes

15.4


Note:* Includes volumes for the main trade routes, not conclusive for the absolute total


Closing remarks

▪ Economic growth is no longer a guarantee as the macroeconomic scenario globally becomes grimmer

▪ Major markets including China, US, and several European countries could see double-digit declines

▪ Total cementitious trade demand is expected to decline almost 9 percent this year due to a decline in demand in all major markets and travel and trading restrictions

▪ Environmental pressures regarding clinker production in major markets (e.g. China), will continue to drive the trade of clinker

▪ Stay at home and stay safe!

20

About CW ResearchCW Research is a leader in syndicated and data-driven market research solutions. The company offers independent

perspectives on multiple industrial market segments(e.g., cement, metals & minerals, and specialty chemicals) and

deep functional expertise in market intelligence, sourcing intelligence, commodity pricing intelligence.

CW Research also provides custom industry and competitive research programs for operating companies, financial

analysts, consultants, governments, suppliers and many others as well as tailored studies together with CW Advisory.

For more information: research.cwgrp.com.

Contacts

CW Group LLCPO Box 5263, Greenwich,

CT 06831 USA

T: +1-702-866-9474

F: +1-928-832-4762

www.cwgrp.com

Prashant Singh

Associate Director

[email protected]

Carolina Pereira

Manager, Advisory &

Research

[email protected]

Juliana Vieira

Business Analyst

[email protected]




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