impact of climate variability and change on marine … · impact of climate variability and change...
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N O A A R E S E A R C H • E A R T H S Y S T E M R E S E A R C H L A B O R ATO R Y • P H Y S I C A L S C I E N C E S D I V I S I O N
Impact of Climate Variability and Change on Marine Ecosystems Michael Alexander and James Scott
PSD Support of NOAA Fisheries • Provide climate observations and model data to users: e.g.
NOAA Fisheries, Decision Makers, Stakeholders ! Climate Change Web Portal (Jamie Scott’s poster)
• Guidance on using climate climate change information in conservation decisions ! Managing fisheries ! Listing marine species as threatened or endangered ! Methodology in: McClure et al. 2013 and Snover et al.
2013, both in Conservation Biology
• Research Projects: ! Climate change impact on fish populations ! SST Prediction in Large Marine Ecosystems
Atlantic Croaker • East coast sport & commercial fishery • Survival of juveniles increases with temperature • Range expands north from Chesapeake Bay
Atlantic Croaker Cusk River Herring
River Herring (Alewife and Blueback) • Population decreased rapidly in the 1970s • NOAA established a recovery plan in 2013 • Warming causes northward shift spring & fall; large
decrease in fall
Cusk • Population decreased rapidly over the last 20 years • Consider listing species as threatened or endangered • Needs cold water and rocky bottom • Warming causes habitat to shrink and fragment
1963-2009 2020-2060 + 1.04 C
2060-2100 + 1.78 C
Cusk Simulated Poten1al Habitat Nov-‐Dec
Model Alewife Density in Spring
US Large Marine Ecosystems
GoA
CC
EBS
IP-‐H
GoM
SST LME Forecast Skill Gulf of Alaska
Anomaly correlations
2 4 6 8 10 120
2
4
6
8
10
12CM2.5 FLOR, EBS
2 4 6 8 10 120
2
4
6
8
10
12CFSv2, EBS
2 4 6 8 10 120
2
4
6
8
10Persist, EBS
2 4 6 8 10 120
2
4
6
8
10
12CM2.5 FLOR, GoA
2 4 6 8 10 120
2
4
6
8
10
12CFSv2, GoA
2 4 6 8 10 120
2
4
6
8
10Persist, GoA
2 4 6 8 10 120
2
4
6
8
10
12CM2.5 FLOR, CC
2 4 6 8 10 120
2
4
6
8
10
12CFSv2, CC
2 4 6 8 10 120
2
4
6
8
10Persist, CC
2 4 6 8 10 120
2
4
6
8
10
12CM2.5 FLOR, IP−H
2 4 6 8 10 120
2
4
6
8
10
12CFSv2, IP−H
2 4 6 8 10 120
2
4
6
8
10Persist, IP−H
−1 −0.8 −0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Fore
cast
Lea
d (m
onth
s)
Initializaton Month
Calendar Month
Forecast Lead in M
onths
NEUS SEUS
SST Prediction for Coastal Ecosystems • Forecast skill of NOAA climate models (CFS, FLOR)
!