global business outlook

Global Business OutlookA joint survey effort between

Duke UniversityandCFO magazine

*Global Business Outlook Duke University Fall 2009John R. GrahamD. Richard Mead Jr. Family Professor of FinanceDirector, Global Business Outlook SurveyI hope that you find these slides useful. They are updated through 2009 Q3. I present this deck towards the end of Corporate Finance when I teach the course at Duke, linking course concepts to the current real world outlook. I usually present just parts of this deck. Feel free to cut and paste, with proper attribution. Please let me know if you have questions or comments. -- John Graham

Global Business Outlook Duke University Fall 2009

Global Business OutlookQuarterly SurveySince July 1996 (54 quarters)Send to CFO subscribers and Friends of DukeTitle of CFO, Treasurer, VP FinanceGlobal: US, Europe, Asia, China1000+ responsesPresent results quarterlyFrequent press coverageMSNBC, WSJ, FT, BW, Wash Post, NPR, podcast, etc.

Global Business Outlook Duke University Fall 2009*


ContentAsk questions about

Economic OutlookSimilar questions every quarter

Topical issuesEffects of credit crisis, govt intervention in financial markets, cost of fuel, etc.



Top CFO Concerns (September 2009)External:Consumer DemandFederal Government Agenda/PoliciesCredit Markets/Interest RatesHousing Market FalloutInternal: Ability to Forecast ResultsWorking Capital ManagementMaintaining Employee Morale / Productivity Balance Sheet Weakness





Chart3

1.6

1

0.8

0.3

0.3

0.1

0.3

0.6

0.8

0.2

Transportation/Energy

Tech Sector External Concerns

Sheet1

N=657TotalsIndustry

NumberRetailMiningTrans-Commun-TechBankingServiceHealth-

MeanWhole-Construc-Manufac-portationicationsSoftwareFinanceConsult-care

saletionturingEnergyMediaBiotechInsur.ingPharmac.Other

Number657893715333222995545385

Percent100.00%13.70%5.70%23.50%5.10%3.40%4.50%14.60%8.30%8.20%13.10%

Consumer demand657893715333222995545385

1.72.21.52.11.62.11.91.11.51.21.5

Federal government657893715333222995545385

agenda/policies1.10.80.90.8111.11.31.62.31

Credit markets/interest657893715333222995545385

rates10.91.50.70.8111.910.61.1

Housing market fallout657893715333222995545385

0.60.70.80.50.30.70.20.90.40.10.7

Budget deficit657893715333222995545385

0.40.20.30.30.20.20.40.40.50.60.7

Other:657893715333222995545385

0.20.10.50.20.30.60.30.20.20.40.3

Cost of non-fuel657893715333222995545385

commodities0.20.30.20.40.10000.10.20.2

Foreign competition657893715333222995545385

0.20.10.20.50.30.10.200.10.20.1

Cost of fuel657893715333222995545385

0.20.30.10.20.600.200.10.10.2

Environmental regulation657893715333222995545385

0.20.10.20.20.800.100.20.10.1

Currency risk657893715333222995545385

0.10.200.10.20.10.60.10.10.20.1

Trade policies and trade657893715333222995545385

agreements0.10.100.100.10.10000.1

Sheet2

External ConcernsRetail/WholesaleMining/ConstructionManufacturingTransportation/EnergyCommunications/MediaTech (Software/Biotech)Banking/Finance/InsuranceServices/ConsultingHealthcare/PharmaceuticalOther

Consumer Demand2.21.52.11.62.11.91.11.51.21.5

Federal Government Policies0.80.90.8111.11.31.62.31

Credit Markets/Interest Rates0.91.50.70.8111.910.61.1

Housing Market Fallout0.70.80.50.30.70.20.90.40.10.7

Budget Deficit0.20.30.30.20.20.40.40.50.60.7

Other:0.10.50.20.30.60.30.20.20.40.3

Cost of Non-Fuel Commodities0.30.20.40.10000.10.20.2

Foreign Competition0.10.20.50.30.10.200.10.20.1

Cost of Fuel0.30.10.20.600.200.10.10.2

Environmental Regulation0.10.20.20.800.100.20.10.1

Currency Risk0.200.10.20.10.60.10.10.20.1

Trade Policies and Trade Agreements0.100.100.10.10000.1

Chart1

1.91.110.20.400.20.20.10.60.1

Consumer Demand

Federal Government Policies

Credit Markets/Interest Rates

Housing Market Fallout

Budget Deficit

Cost of Non-Fuel Commodities

Foreign Competition

Cost of Fuel

Environmental Regulation

Currency Risk

Trade Policies and Trade Agreements


Sheet3


Consumer Demand2.21.52.11.62.11.91.11.51.21.5




Budget Deficit0.20.30.30.20.20.40.40.50.60.7

Other:0.10.50.20.30.60.30.20.20.40.3



Cost of Fuel0.30.10.20.600.200.10.10.2


Currency Risk0.200.10.20.10.60.10.10.20.1


Sheet3

Consumer Demand




Budget Deficit

Other:


Foreign Competition

Cost of Fuel


Currency Risk

External Concerns (by Industry)


Tech Sector



Chart3

1.6

1

0.8

0.3

0.3

0.1

0.3

0.6

0.8

0.2



Sheet1

N=657TotalsIndustry




Number657893715333222995545385

Percent100.00%13.70%5.70%23.50%5.10%3.40%4.50%14.60%8.30%8.20%13.10%

Consumer demand657893715333222995545385

1.72.21.52.11.62.11.91.11.51.21.5

Federal government657893715333222995545385

agenda/policies1.10.80.90.8111.11.31.62.31

Credit markets/interest657893715333222995545385

rates10.91.50.70.8111.910.61.1

Housing market fallout657893715333222995545385

0.60.70.80.50.30.70.20.90.40.10.7

Budget deficit657893715333222995545385

0.40.20.30.30.20.20.40.40.50.60.7

Other:657893715333222995545385

0.20.10.50.20.30.60.30.20.20.40.3

Cost of non-fuel657893715333222995545385

commodities0.20.30.20.40.10000.10.20.2

Foreign competition657893715333222995545385

0.20.10.20.50.30.10.200.10.20.1

Cost of fuel657893715333222995545385

0.20.30.10.20.600.200.10.10.2

Environmental regulation657893715333222995545385

0.20.10.20.20.800.100.20.10.1

Currency risk657893715333222995545385

0.10.200.10.20.10.60.10.10.20.1

Trade policies and trade657893715333222995545385

agreements0.10.100.100.10.10000.1

Sheet2


Consumer Demand2.21.52.11.62.11.91.11.51.21.5




Budget Deficit0.20.30.30.20.20.40.40.50.60.7

Other:0.10.50.20.30.60.30.20.20.40.3



Cost of Fuel0.30.10.20.600.200.10.10.2


Currency Risk0.200.10.20.10.60.10.10.20.1


Chart1

1.91.110.20.400.20.20.10.60.1

Consumer Demand




Budget Deficit


Foreign Competition

Cost of Fuel


Currency Risk



Chart2

2.10.80.70.50.30.40.50.20.20.10.1

Consumer Demand




Budget Deficit


Foreign Competition

Cost of Fuel


Currency Risk


Manufacturing Sector External Concerns

Sheet3


Consumer Demand2.21.52.11.62.11.91.11.51.21.5




Budget Deficit0.20.30.30.20.20.40.40.50.60.7

Other:0.10.50.20.30.60.30.20.20.40.3



Cost of Fuel0.30.10.20.600.200.10.10.2


Currency Risk0.200.10.20.10.60.10.10.20.1


Sheet3

Consumer Demand




Budget Deficit

Other:


Foreign Competition

Cost of Fuel


Currency Risk

External Concerns (by Industry)


Tech Sector



Chart13

1.1

1.5

0.8

0.9

0.5

0.4

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2


Tech Sector Internal Concerns

Sheet1

N=655TotalsIndustry




Number655893715333222995545383

Percent100.00%13.70%5.70%23.60%5.10%3.40%4.50%14.70%8.30%8.20%12.80%

Ability to forecast655893715333222995545383

results1.21.41.21.31.10.91.51.11.20.91.2

Working capital655893715333222995545383

management0.90.911.31.50.60.80.80.70.60.9

Maintaining morale/655893715333222995545383

productivity during0.90.81.20.90.81.31.1110.60.7

economic downturn

Balance sheet weakness655893715333222995545383

0.60.60.60.40.90.90.20.90.70.60.5

Cost of health care655893715333222995545383

0.50.60.50.50.50.60.40.50.50.50.7

Attracting and retaining655893715333222995545383

qualified employees0.50.40.40.30.40.40.90.50.91.10.6

Supply chain risk655893715333222995545383

0.30.60.30.60.100.20.10.10.30.1

Other:655893715333222995545383

0.30.30.30.20.20.20.40.20.30.40.3

Managing IT systems655893715333222995545383

0.20.200.20.30.20.20.30.20.50.2

Pension obligations655893715333222995545383

0.100.10.20.20.200.10.10.20.3

Counterparty risk655893715333222995545383

0.10.10.20.10.20.10.10.3000.2

Sheet2

Internal ConcernsRetail/WholesaleMining/ConstructionManufacturingTransportation/EnergyCommunications/MediaTech (Software/Biotech)Banking/Finance/InsuranceServices/ConsultingHealthcare/PharmaceuticalOther

Ability to Forecast Results1.41.21.31.10.91.51.11.20.91.2

Working Capital Management0.911.31.50.60.80.80.70.60.9

Maintaining Morale/Productivity during Economic Downturn0.81.20.90.81.31.1110.60.7

Balance Sheet Weakness0.60.60.40.90.90.20.90.70.60.5

Cost of Health Care0.60.50.50.50.60.40.50.50.50.7

Attracting and Retaining Qualified Employees0.40.40.30.40.40.90.50.91.10.6

Supply Chain Risk0.60.30.60.100.20.10.10.30.1

Other:0.30.30.20.20.20.40.20.30.40.3

Managing IT Systems0.200.20.30.20.20.30.20.50.2

Pension Obligations00.10.20.20.200.10.10.20.3

Counterparty Risk0.10.20.10.20.10.10.3000.2

Chart1

1.50.81.10.20.40.90.20.200.1

Ability to Forecast Results

Working Capital Management

Maintaining Morale/Productivity during Economic Downturn

Balance Sheet Weakness

Cost of Health Care

Attracting and Retaining Qualified Employees

Supply Chain Risk

Managing IT Systems

Pension Obligations

Counterparty Risk


Sheet3









Other:0.30.30.20.20.20.40.20.30.40.3




Sheet3





Cost of Health Care


Supply Chain Risk

Other:

Managing IT Systems

Pension Obligations

Counterparty Risk

Internal Concerns (by Industry)


Tech Sector



Chart13

1.1

1.5

0.8

0.9

0.5

0.4

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2



Sheet1

N=655TotalsIndustry




Number655893715333222995545383

Percent100.00%13.70%5.70%23.60%5.10%3.40%4.50%14.70%8.30%8.20%12.80%

Ability to forecast655893715333222995545383

results1.21.41.21.31.10.91.51.11.20.91.2

Working capital655893715333222995545383

management0.90.911.31.50.60.80.80.70.60.9

Maintaining morale/655893715333222995545383

productivity during0.90.81.20.90.81.31.1110.60.7

economic downturn

Balance sheet weakness655893715333222995545383

0.60.60.60.40.90.90.20.90.70.60.5

Cost of health care655893715333222995545383

0.50.60.50.50.50.60.40.50.50.50.7

Attracting and retaining655893715333222995545383

qualified employees0.50.40.40.30.40.40.90.50.91.10.6

Supply chain risk655893715333222995545383

0.30.60.30.60.100.20.10.10.30.1

Other:655893715333222995545383

0.30.30.30.20.20.20.40.20.30.40.3

Managing IT systems655893715333222995545383

0.20.200.20.30.20.20.30.20.50.2

Pension obligations655893715333222995545383

0.100.10.20.20.200.10.10.20.3

Counterparty risk655893715333222995545383

0.10.10.20.10.20.10.10.3000.2

Sheet2









Other:0.30.30.20.20.20.40.20.30.40.3




Chart1

1.50.81.10.20.40.90.20.200.1





Cost of Health Care


Supply Chain Risk

Managing IT Systems

Pension Obligations

Counterparty Risk


Chart2

1.31.30.90.40.50.30.60.20.20.1





Cost of Health Care


Supply Chain Risk

Managing IT Systems

Pension Obligations

Counterparty Risk

Manufacturing Sector Internal Concerns

Sheet3









Other:0.30.30.20.20.20.40.20.30.40.3




Sheet3





Cost of Health Care


Supply Chain Risk

Other:

Managing IT Systems

Pension Obligations

Counterparty Risk

Internal Concerns (by Industry)


Tech Sector

Global Business Outlook Duke University Fall 2009*Expected percentage change in earnings over next 12 monthsSource: Duke University / CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook


Chart1

0.03510.0550.050.063-0.052

0.024-0.09-0.076-0.070.042

-0.1252-0.198-0.105-0.0850.018

-0.068-0.04-0.1460.033-0.092

-0.06120.0310.0070.0140.017

Tech Sector

USA

Europe

Asia

China

Earnings Growth

Sheet1

08Q308Q409Q109Q22009Q3

Tech Sector0.03510.024-0.1252-0.068-0.0612

USA0.0550-0.0900-0.198-0.040.031

Europe0.0500-0.0760-0.105-0.1460.007

Asia0.0630-0.0700-0.0850.0330.014

China-0.05200.04200.018-0.0920.017

Global Business Outlook Duke University Fall 2009*Expected percentage change in earnings over next 12 monthsSource: Duke University / CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook


Chart1

0.0340.0550.050.063-0.052

-0.15-0.09-0.076-0.070.042

-0.232-0.198-0.105-0.0850.018

-0.123-0.04-0.1460.033-0.092

0.07410.0310.0070.0140.017

Manu Sector

USA

Europe

Asia

China

Earnings Growth

Sheet1

08Q308Q409Q109Q22009Q3

Manu Sector0.034-0.15-0.232-0.1230.0741

USA0.0550-0.0900-0.198-0.040.031

Europe0.0500-0.0760-0.105-0.1460.007

Asia0.0630-0.0700-0.0850.0330.014

China-0.05200.04200.018-0.0920.017

Global Business Outlook Duke University Fall 2009*Expected percentage change in domestic employment over next 12 monthsSource: Duke University / CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook


Chart1

-0.0345-0.0160.0160.0750.075

-0.0199-0.05-0.058-0.005-0.014

-0.0682-0.057-0.076-0.076-0.011

-0.044-0.056-0.013-0.014-0.011

-0.0554-0.032-0.0320.0010.016

Tech Sector

USA

Europe

Asia

China

Domestic Employment

Sheet1

08Q208Q308Q409Q109Q22009Q3

Tech Sector-0.0459-0.0345-0.0199-0.0682-0.044-0.0554

USA-0.002-0.016-0.05-0.057-0.056-0.032

Europe-0.0120.016-0.058-0.076-0.013-0.032

Asia0.0330.075-0.005-0.076-0.0140.001

China0.0770.075-0.014-0.011-0.0110.016

Global Business Outlook Duke University Fall 2009*Expected percentage change in domestic employment over next 12 monthsSource: Duke University / CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook


Chart1

-0.013-0.0160.0160.0750.075

-0.065-0.05-0.058-0.005-0.014

-0.078-0.057-0.076-0.076-0.011

-0.101-0.056-0.013-0.014-0.011

-0.0507-0.032-0.0320.0010.016

Manu Sector

USA

Europe

Asia

China

Domestic Employment

Sheet1

08Q208Q308Q409Q109Q22009Q3

Manu Sector-0.032-0.013-0.065-0.078-0.101-0.0507

USA-0.002-0.016-0.05-0.057-0.056-0.032

Europe-0.0120.016-0.058-0.076-0.013-0.032

Asia0.0330.075-0.005-0.076-0.0140.001

China0.0770.075-0.014-0.011-0.0110.016

Global Business Outlook Duke University Fall 2009*Expected percentage change in outsourced employment over next 12 monthsSource: Duke University / CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook


Chart1

0.08010.0370.0540.0360.009

0.0189-0.016-0.0210.009-0.029

0.0344-0.017-0.04-0.080.007

-0.0320.003-0.0130.0080.012

0.00130.026-0.003-0.002-0.004

Tech Sector

USA

Europe

Asia

China

Outsourced Employment

Sheet1

08Q208Q308Q409Q109Q22009Q3

Tech Sector0.10580.08010.01890.0344-0.0320.0013

USA0.0460.037-0.016-0.0170.0030.026

Europe0.0290.054-0.021-0.04-0.013-0.003

Asia0.0230.0360.009-0.080.008-0.002

China0.0260.009-0.0290.0070.012-0.004

Global Business Outlook Duke University Fall 2009*Expected percentage change in outsourced employment over next 12 monthsSource: Duke University / CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook


Chart1

0.0470.0370.0540.0360.009

-0.044-0.016-0.0210.009-0.029

-0.049-0.017-0.04-0.080.007

-0.0470.003-0.0130.0080.012

0.03640.026-0.003-0.002-0.004

Manu Sector

USA

Europe

Asia

China

Outsourced Employment

Sheet1

08Q208Q308Q409Q109Q22009Q3

Manu Sector0.0490.047-0.044-0.049-0.0470.0364

USA0.0460.037-0.016-0.0170.0030.026

Europe0.0290.054-0.021-0.04-0.013-0.003

Asia0.0230.0360.009-0.080.008-0.002

China0.0260.009-0.0290.0070.012-0.004

Global Business Outlook Duke University Fall 2009*Expected percentage change in prices of own firms products over next 12 monthsSource: Duke University / CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook


Chart1

0.01520.0360.0190.0150

-0.021400-0.04-0.019

0.00720.005-0.001-0.039-0.02

0.0120.003-0.01-0.009-0.034

0.00270.0060.001-0.004-0.004

Tech Sector

USA

Europe

Asia

China

Prices

Sheet1

08Q208Q308Q409Q109Q22009Q3

Tech Sector-0.04240.0152-0.02140.00720.0120.0027

USA0.0410.03600.0050.0030.006

Europe0.0150.0190-0.001-0.010.001

Asia0.0450.015-0.04-0.039-0.009-0.004

China0.0320-0.019-0.02-0.034-0.004

Global Business Outlook Duke University Fall 2009*Expected percentage change in prices of own firms prices over next 12 monthsSource: Duke University / CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook


Chart1

0.0390.0360.0190.0150

-0.00400-0.04-0.019

-0.0120.005-0.001-0.039-0.02

-0.0180.003-0.01-0.009-0.034

0.00360.0060.001-0.004-0.004

Manu Sector

USA

Europe

Asia

China

Prices

Sheet1

08Q208Q308Q409Q109Q22009Q3

Manu Sector0.0520.039-0.004-0.012-0.0180.0036

USA0.0410.03600.0050.0030.006

Europe0.0150.0190-0.001-0.010.001

Asia0.0450.015-0.04-0.039-0.009-0.004

China0.0320-0.019-0.02-0.034-0.004

Global Business Outlook Duke University Fall 2009*Expected percentage change in wages & salaries over next 12 monthsSource: Duke University / CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook


Chart1

0.03190.0280.0410.0660.078

0.05180.0120.0280.0440.02

-0.0041-0.0050.0120.017-0.001

-0.046-0.0100.03-0.002

0.01220.0090.0180.0520.03

Tech Sector

USA

Europe

Asia

China

Wages & Salaries

Sheet1

08Q208Q308Q409Q109Q22009Q3

Tech Sector0.01240.03190.0518-0.0041-0.0460.0122

USA0.0310.0280.012-0.005-0.010.009

Europe0.0360.0410.0280.01200.018

Asia0.0620.0660.0440.0170.030.052

China0.0920.0780.02-0.001-0.0020.03

Global Business Outlook Duke University Fall 2009*Expected percentage change in wages & salaries over next 12 monthsSource: Duke University / CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook


Chart1

0.0310.0280.0410.0660.078

0.0070.0120.0280.0440.02

-0.017-0.0050.0120.017-0.001

-0.019-0.0100.03-0.002

0.00670.0090.0180.0520.03

Manu Sector

USA

Europe

Asia

China

Wages & Salaries

Sheet1

08Q208Q308Q409Q109Q22009Q3

Manu Sector0.0330.0310.007-0.017-0.0190.0067

USA0.0310.0280.012-0.005-0.010.009

Europe0.0360.0410.0280.01200.018

Asia0.0620.0660.0440.0170.030.052

China0.0920.0780.02-0.001-0.0020.03

Global Business Outlook Duke University Fall 2009*Expected percentage change in health care costs over next 12 monthsSource: Duke University / CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook


Chart1

0.06560.0650.0260.0450.046

0.11660.0640.0060.0330.027

0.03120.0510.0070.0460.018

0.0290.0540.0060.0110.01

0.07040.060.010.0390.024

Tech Sector

USA

Europe

Asia

China

Health Care Costs

0.039

0.024

Sheet1

08Q208Q308Q409Q109Q22009Q3

Tech Sector0.08650.06560.11660.03120.0290.0704

USA0.0660.0650.0640.0510.0540.06

Europe0.020.0260.0060.0070.0060.01

Asia0.0450.0450.0330.0460.0110.039

China0.0740.0460.0270.0180.010.024

Global Business Outlook Duke University Fall 2009*Expected percentage change in health care costs over next 12 monthsSource: Duke University / CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook


Chart1

0.070.0650.0260.0450.046

0.0640.0640.0060.0330.027

0.050.0510.0070.0460.018

0.0520.0540.0060.0110.01

0.06250.060.010.0390.024

Manu Sector

USA

Europe

Asia

China

Health Care Costs

Sheet1

08Q208Q308Q409Q109Q22009Q3

Manu Sector0.070.070.0640.050.0520.0625

USA0.0660.0650.0640.0510.0540.06

Europe0.020.0260.0060.0070.0060.01

Asia0.0450.0450.0330.0460.0110.039

China0.0740.0460.0270.0180.010.024

Global Business Outlook Duke University Fall 2009*Expected percentage change in capital spending over next 12 monthsSource: Duke University / CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook


Chart1

-0.00040.0060.0080.0760.012

-0.0944-0.102-0.11-0.087-0.04

-0.0169-0.133-0.156-0.094-0.07

-0.06-0.115-0.113-0.0340.002

-0.0336-0.032-0.0410.0070.059

Tech Sector

USA

Europe

Asia

China

Capital Spending

Sheet1

08Q208Q308Q409Q109Q22009Q3

Tech Sector0.0078-0.0004-0.0944-0.0169-0.06-0.0336

USA0.0230.006-0.102-0.133-0.115-0.032

Europe0.0290.008-0.11-0.156-0.113-0.041

Asia0.0670.076-0.087-0.094-0.0340.007

China0.0790.012-0.04-0.070.0020.059



Chart1

0.0030.0060.0080.0760.012

-0.137-0.102-0.11-0.087-0.04

-0.209-0.133-0.156-0.094-0.07

-0.159-0.115-0.113-0.0340.002

-0.0706-0.032-0.0410.0070.059

Manu Sector

USA

Europe

Asia

China

Capital Spending

Sheet1

08Q208Q308Q409Q109Q22009Q3

Manu Sector0.0360.003-0.137-0.209-0.159-0.0706

USA0.0230.006-0.102-0.133-0.115-0.032

Europe0.0290.008-0.11-0.156-0.113-0.041

Asia0.0670.076-0.087-0.094-0.0340.007

China0.0790.012-0.04-0.070.0020.059



Chart1

0.0190.0260.0480.055

-0.044-0.038-0.0270.014

-0.054-0.062-0.0570.034

-0.046-0.0290.0070.007

-0.004-0.0180.0110.035

USA

Europe

Asia

China

IT Spending

Sheet1

08Q208Q308Q409Q109Q22009Q3

USA0.0340.019-0.044-0.054-0.046-0.004

Europe0.0330.026-0.038-0.062-0.029-0.018

Asia0.0430.048-0.027-0.0570.0070.011

China0.0650.0550.0140.0340.0070.035

Global Business Outlook Duke University Fall 2009*CFO Optimism about owncountrys economy, on ascale of 0 to 100

For U.S. firms,CFO Optimism about ownfirms financial prospectsalso shown (in green)Source: www.cfosurvey.org


Can CFOs Predict the Future?CFOs predict the future reasonably well

CFO optimism about own firm is highly correlated with future national numbers forEarnings (68% correlation with next years earnings)Employment (55%) see chartCapital Spending (56%)

Global Business Outlook Duke University Fall 2009*Source: www.cfosurvey.org


Chart2

5.855.34166666675.85

5.95833333335.20833333335.9583333333

6.01666666675.16.0166666667

5.95833333334.96666666675.9583333333

5.86666666674.85833333335.8666666667

5.69166666674.79166666675.6916666667

5.554.66666666675.55

5.46666666674.59166666675.4666666667

4.54166666675.3416666667

4.53333333335.2083333333

4.59166666675.1

4.69166666674.9666666667

4.8754.8583333333

4.954.7916666667

5.03333333334.6666666667

5.154.5916666667

5.26666666674.5416666667

5.40833333334.5333333333

5.5754.5916666667

4.6916666667

4.875

4.95

5.0333333333

5.15

5.2666666667

5.4083333333

5.575

unemployment_duke_fei

unemployment_duke_only

all

US CFO Optimism About Own Firm

Next 4q Unemployment rate

Next 12 Mnth. Unemployment

y = -0.0647x + 9.5994R2 = 0.3066, Corr=56%

data

QtrUS Econ 0-100US Econ 0-100(DUKE-FEI)Firm 0-100Firm 0-100(duke-fei)MonthFEI EconFEI Econ(post-duke)FEI FirmFEI Firm(post-duke)UBSCEO surveyConferenceBoardMichiganISM PMIGDPCorpEarningCapxUnemploymentUS EconFirm1=more optimistic; 2=less optimistic; 3=no change;US Econ 0-100Firm 0-100UBSt+1CEOt+1ConfBoardt+1MICHIGANt+1ISM PMIt+1US Econ 0-100t+1UBSt+2CEOt+2ConfBoardt+2MICHIGANt+2ISM PMIt+2US Econ 0-100t+2UBSt+3CEOt+3ConfBoardt+3MICHIGANt+3ISM PMIt+3US Econ 0-100t+3UBSt-1CEOt-1ConfBoardt-1MICHIGANt-1ISM PMIt-1US Econ 0-100t-1NYSE/AMEX/NASDAQ Returns(VWRETD %)90-day Tbill returnCOCCOC210 Yr. Zero YieldCOC_3

02q362.021671826662.021671826666.52812566.528125June, 200262.021671826666.52812572106.392.455.81.5015642566932.8251055.8755.85q1aq2ayesq1bq2b6093.786.151.757.605252.780.786.752.561.6514084507549.361.477.646.455.4364640884-16.640.46005.0544-30.75214

02q457.603825136657.603825136665.432960893965.4329608939September, 200257.603825136665.43296089396093.786.151.71.8231582785963.0251063.855.9583333333q1aq2ayesq1bq2b5252.780.786.752.561.65549.361.477.646.455.43646408847764.583.589.750.461.675487465272106.392.455.862.02167182668.000.420Correl COC, Duke_US_ECON004.763138461518.3834592308

03q161.651408450761.651408450764.722419928864.7224199288Dec, 200261.651408450764.72241992885252.780.786.752.53.1160101792993.1251077.3756.0166666667q1aq2ayesq1bq2b549.361.477.646.455.447764.583.589.750.461.67548746525467.77787.755.165.15853658546093.786.151.757.6038251366-2.860.31004.5826153846-3.4188303077

03q255.436464088455.436464088462.686813186862.6868131868Mar, 200355.436464088462.6868131868549.361.477.646.43.74750837231058.2251091.4755.9583333333q1aq2ayesq1bq2b7764.583.589.750.461.685467.77787.755.165.158536585410489.691.792.662.171.0191387565252.780.786.752.561.651408450717.040.330Correl COC, Duke_FIRM004.170553846236.1613569231

03q361.675487465261.675487465262.813180515862.8131805158June, 200361.675487465262.81318051587764.583.589.750.44.20203512171126.0251108.55.8666666667q1aq2ayesq1bq2b5467.77787.755.165.1610489.691.792.662.171.0191387568594.388.595.862.367.4816753927549.361.477.646.455.43646408843.910.25004.879692307710.2552541538

03q465.158536585465.158536585467.870370370467.8703703704Sept, 200365.158536585467.87037037045467.77787.755.14.20528926351176.651128.355.6916666667q1aq2ayesq1bq2b10489.691.792.662.171.028594.388.595.862.367.48167539279596.5102.895.661.268.93478260877764.583.589.750.461.675487465212.700.26004.916815384627.8639476923

04q171.01913875671.01913875671.541871921271.5418719212Dec, 200371.01913875671.541871921210489.691.792.662.13.21196898151231.2251154.5255.55q1aq2ayesq1bq2b8594.388.595.862.367.489596.5102.895.661.268.934782608774101.796.794.259.166.16310160435467.77787.755.165.15853658542.780.25004.61158461547.8635403077

04q267.481675392767.481675392773.571428571473.5714285714Mar, 200467.481675392773.57142857148594.388.595.862.33.18502873131294.7751187.8255.4666666667q1aq2ayesq1bq2b9596.5102.895.661.268.9374101.796.794.259.166.16310160437998.9102.797.157.367.295373665510489.691.792.662.171.0191387561.090.24005.30593846154.8354172308

04q368.934782608768.8076923077June, 200473.5573.5576.476.49596.5102.895.661.23.21401562051356.0251219.25.3416666667q1aq2ayesq1bq2b74101.796.794.259.166.167998.9102.797.157.367.29537366555094.3104.486.95465.028594.388.595.862.367.4816753927-1.530.35004.9637076923-0.5681901538

04q466.163101604369.3355978261Sept, 200471.9871.9876.0676.0674101.796.794.259.13.042879788413871247.555.2083333333q1aq2ayesq1bq2b7998.9102.797.157.367.305094.3104.486.95465.026195.989.15867.379596.5102.895.661.268.934782608710.440.47004.916815384623.3476276923

05q167.295373665572.1541218638Dec, 200470.7870.7875.7375.737998.9102.797.157.33.26239362661447.951273.1255.1q1aq2ayesq1bq2b5094.3104.486.95465.026195.989.15867.3750101.481.655.664.4874101.796.794.259.166.1631016043-2.130.57004.8098666667-1.8602326667

05q2104.494.255.32.91493474611496.951308.64.9666666667

05q365.0270.89May, 200568.6668.6674.0974.095094.386.9543.36114232941549.251345.4254.8583333333q1aq2ayesq1bq2b6195.989.15867.3750101.481.655.664.4879102.288.954.2667.217998.9102.797.157.367.29537366554.810.84004.723278571411.9886012857

05q467.3771.7Aug, 200565.3565.3573.4373.436195.989.1583.26609823791642.051382.154.7916666667q1aq2ayesq1bq2b50101.481.655.664.4879102.288.954.2667.215898.684.952.7264.145094.3104.486.95465.022.230.93005.08696923087.0098546154

06q164.4870.06Nov, 200569.6969.6977.3777.3750101.481.655.62.39891342781668.5251414.14.6666666667q1aq2ayesq1bq2b79102.288.954.2667.215898.684.952.7264.147482.485.451.8662.226195.989.15867.37

06q267.2172.12Mar,200671.0671.0678.1278.1279102.288.954.262.62793638581664.4251434.3254.5916666667q1aq2ayesq1bq2b5898.684.952.7264.147482.485.451.8662.229381.992.151.5265.8450101.481.655.664.48

06q364.1470.13June,200668.6468.6476.2776.275898.684.952.721.55840842231662.151455.6754.5416666667q1aq2ayesq1bq2b7482.485.451.8662.229381.992.151.5265.847884.988.450.6867.3279102.288.954.2667.21

06q462.2268.43Sept, 200667.6067.675.4675.467482.485.451.861.90640624761650.7751478.154.5333333333q1aq2ayesq1bq2b9381.992.151.5265.847884.988.450.6867.328981.985.353.4265.035898.684.952.7264.14

07q165.8469.75Nov, 200669.2869.2875.5775.579381.992.151.522.88254067171642.4251503.7754.5916666667q1aq2ayesq1bq2b7884.988.450.6867.328981.985.353.4265.036877.483.450.5260.457482.485.451.8662.22

07q267.3271.53Mar, 200769.2969.2973.6273.627884.988.450.682.49533432411636.351528.0754.6916666667q1aq2ayesq1bq2b8981.985.353.4265.036877.483.450.5260.455079.575.548.4456.959381.992.151.5265.84

07q365.0370.14June, 200767.4667.4673.1973.198981.985.353.422.58685313251601.551547.6254.875q1aq2ayesq1bq2b6877.483.450.5260.455079.575.548.4456.952279.569.548.651.667884.988.450.6867.32

07q460.4568.96Sept, 200762.8562.8571.6871.686877.483.450.521564.151562.5754.95q1aq2ayesq1bq2b5079.575.548.4456.952279.569.548.651.6674.556.450.251.788981.985.353.4265.03

08q156.9567.88Dec, 200756.2656.2670.2670.265079.575.548.445.0333333333q1aq2ayesq1bq2b2279.569.548.651.6674.556.450.251.7878.870.343.554.096877.483.450.5260.45

08q251.6664.69Mar, 200854.2954.2968.1268.122279.569.548.65.15q1aq2ayesq1bq2b74.556.450.251.7878.870.343.554.0916.555.341.765079.575.548.4456.95

08q351.7863.41Jun, 200848.9248.9267.0667.0674.556.450.25.2666666667q1aq2ayesq1bq2b78.870.343.554.0916.555.341.762279.569.548.651.66

08q454.0963.18September, 200841.7341.7361.7461.7478.870.343.55.4083333333q1aq2ayesq1bq2b16.555.341.7674.556.450.251.78

09q141.7654.71December, 200816.555.35.575q1aq2ayesq1bq2b78.870.343.554.09

41.76

Note: GDP refers to the four quarters following the prediction, inlcuding current quarter.

Note: Unemployment rate refers to the average rate in the next 12 months following the prediction, inlcuding current month.

Note: Corporate Earnings (CAPX) is the average corporate profits (CAPX) of the next four quarters, including current quarter. Data in Billions of dollars.

Note: Capx is defined as non-residential private fixed investments, from table 5.3.5 of BEA NIPA.

Note: FEI results are from: http://www.baruch.cuny.edu/cfosurvey/

Note: CEO surveys by Business Roundtable is started in November 2002. They have surveys in: Nov-02, Apr-03, Jul-03, Oct-03, Dec-03, Mar-04, June-04, quarterly from now on. To match up this data to our data, I match them to the closest month.

Note: UBS investor optimism data is from LexusNexus. The overall investor optimism data is used.

Fuqua School of Business:stocks_wt:0.37bonds_wt:0.63

Macro

YearQtrQtrly Growth in GDPCorpEarningsCapxYearMonthUnemployment Rate; Percent SA http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/fedstl/unrateISM PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index), SA

200042.094794.31250.32001125.746.7

20011-0.489778.71229.6200215.749.1

200121.233783.11187.1200225.753.2

20013-1.398714.51167.21110.85200235.754.9

200141.5867931123.2800.3200245.954

200212.744829.41085.2200255.855.2

200222.195864.31067.8200265.855.8

200232.378895.41061.4200275.851.4

200240.202956.11050.7200285.750.9

200311.2019923.61044200295.751.7

200323.4691956.21067.42002105.750.1

200337.48651016.21093.32002115.949.6

200342.65321076.51104.8200212652.5

200412.959611841100.4200315.852.8

200423.4821227.41135.5200325.949.9

200433.6021218.71172.7200335.846.4

200442.5481294.81209.520034646.1

200513.0731438.21233.6200356.149.8

200522.8131472.41261200366.350.4

200534.4621342.61286.1200376.252.5

200541.19361538.61311.8200386.155.6

200614.82041634.21375.5200396.155.1

200622.44231681.61408.3200310657.7

200631.06551713.814332003115.961.3

200642.09091644.51439.62003125.762.1

200710.60161617.81456.4200415.762.8

200723.82131672.51493.7200425.662.1

200734.90721668.31522.9200435.762.3

200740.57761611.11542.1200445.562.3

200810.95931593.51553.6200455.662.6

200822.8251533.31571.9200465.661.2

20083-0.5141518.71582.7200475.561.6

20084200485.459.6

200495.459.1

2004105.557.5

2004115.457.6

2004125.457.3

Note: all macro data comes from www.economagic.com, which collects data from BEA and such200515.256.3

200525.455.6

The economagic title for GDP growth is: Quarterly Growth in real GDP at annual rates, Percent200535.155.3

The economagic title for CorpEarnings is: Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments: Corporate Profits by Industry: Billions of dollars; SAAR (quarterly). BEA NIPA tables, table 6.16.D200545.153.8

The economagic title for Capx is: Nonresidential: Private Fixed Investment by Type: Billions of dollars; SAAR (quarterly) Table 5.3.5200555.151.8

20056554

20057556.4

200584.953.5

200595.158

2005104.958.1

200511557.3

2005124.955.6

200614.754.8

200624.855.0

200634.754.3

200644.755.9

200654.653.8

200664.652.7

200674.853.4

200684.753.5

200694.651.9

2006104.451.1

2006114.549.7

2006124.451.5

200714.649.3

200724.551.5

200734.450.7

200744.552.8

200754.552.8

200764.653.4

200774.752.3

200784.751.2

200794.750.5

2007104.850.4

2007114.750.0

200712548.4

200814.950.7

200824.848.3

200835.148.6

20084548.6

200855.549.6

200865.550.2

200875.750.0

200886.149.9

200896.143.5

2008106.538.9

2008116.736.2

cfo predicting other surveys

UBSt=+DUKE_CFOt+UBSt-1

Coefficientst-stats

3.7388425.27

0.03953640.28

-174.0071-3.95

Adj. R20.561

CEOt=+DUKE_CFOt+CEOt-1

Coefficientst-stats

1.4349772.36

0.10834740.79

-14.06161-0.4

Adj. R20.2781

MICHIGANt=+DUKE_CFOt+MICHIGANt-1

Coefficientst-stats

1.1334246.23

0.34714682.67

-15.85834-1.79

Adj. R20.8377

CONF_BOARDt=+DUKE_CFOt+CONF_BOARDt-1

Coefficientst-stats

1.5946762.65

0.55050582.72

-62.27348-1.41

Adj. R20.5305

ISM_PMIt=+DUKE_CFOt+ISM_PMIt-1

Coefficientst-stats

0.45215833.75

0.49154563.18

-1.455392-0.2

Adj. R20.6888

(3) OptiEcon

Correlations:

US OptimismUBS0.7741838197

US OptimismCEO0.7457530636

US OptimismConfBoard0.5270483773

US OptimismMichigan0.905682275

US OptimismISM PMI0.7969816619

Correlations:

tt+1






Correlations:

tt+2






(3) OptiEcon

729572

607460

527952

55

775077

546154

10450104

857985

5895

7474

9379

78

8950

6861

5050

2279

51.7858

54.0974

41.7693

78

89

68

50

22

51.78

54.09

41.76

UBS_duke_fei

UBS_duke_only

all

Optimsm US Econ

UBS investor optimism

UBS

(4) OptiFirm

62.021671826696.562.0216718266

57.6038251366101.757.6038251366

52.798.952.7

49.349.3

64.594.364.5

67.795.967.7

89.6101.489.6

94.3102.294.3

98.696.5

82.4101.7

81.998.9

84.9

81.994.3

77.495.9

79.5101.4

79.5102.2

74.598.6

78.882.4

16.581.9

84.9

81.9

77.4

79.5

79.5

74.5

78.8

16.5

CEO survey_duke_fei

CEO survey_duke_only

all

Optimism US Econ

CEO Survey

CEO Survey

(5) OptiEconMacro

106.3102.8106.3

93.796.793.7

80.7102.780.7

61.4104.461.4

83.565.0283.5

7767.3777

91.764.4891.7

88.567.2188.5

64.14102.8

62.2296.7

65.84102.7

67.32104.4

65.0365.02

60.4567.37

56.9564.48

51.6667.21

51.7864.14

54.0962.22

41.7665.84

67.32

65.03

60.45

56.95

51.66

51.78

54.09

41.76

conference board_duke_fei

conference board_duke_only

all

Optimism US Econ

ConferenceBoard

Conference Board

(6) OptiFirmMacro

92.495.692.4

86.194.286.1

86.797.186.7

77.694.277.6

89.786.989.7

87.789.187.7

92.681.692.6

95.888.995.8

84.995.6

85.494.2

92.197.1

88.494.2

85.386.9

83.489.1

75.581.6

69.588.9

56.484.9

70.385.4

55.392.1

88.4

85.3

83.4

75.5

69.5

56.4

70.3

55.3

michigan_duke_fei

michigan_duke_only

all

Optimism US Econ

Michigan

Michigan

OptiEcon_FEI

55.861.255.8

51.759.151.7

52.557.352.5

46.455.346.4

50.45450.4

55.15855.1

62.155.662.1

62.354.2662.3

52.7261.2

51.8659.1

51.5257.3

50.6855.3

53.4254

50.5258

48.4455.6

48.654.26

50.252.72

43.551.86

41.7651.52

50.68

53.42

50.52

48.44

48.6

50.2

43.5

41.76

ISM PMI _duke_fei

ISM PMI _duke_only

all

Optimism US Econ

ISM PMI

ISM PMI

OptiFirm_FEI

Correlations:

Firm OptimismUBS0.5673522721

Firm OptimismCEO0.8720917561

Firm OptimismConfBoard0.5132353522

Firm OptimismMichigan0.7430779841

Firm OptimismISM PMI0.679696719

OptiFirm_FEI

729572

607460

527952

55

775077

546154

10450104

857985

5895

7474

9379

78

8950

6861

5050

2279

63.4158

63.1874

54.7193

78

89

68

50

22

63.41

63.18

54.71

UBS_duke_fei

UBS_duke_only

all

Optimism Firm


UBS

OptiEconMacro_FEI

66.52812596.566.528125

65.4329608939101.765.4329608939

52.798.952.7

49.349.3

64.594.364.5

67.795.967.7

89.6101.489.6

94.3102.294.3

98.696.5

82.4101.7

81.998.9

84.9

81.994.3

77.495.9

79.5101.4

79.5102.2

74.598.6

78.882.4

16.581.9

84.9

81.9

77.4

79.5

79.5

74.5

78.8

16.5

CEO survey_duke_fei

CEO survey_duke_only

all

Optimism Firm

CEO Survey

CEO Survey

OptiFirmMacro_FEI

106.3102.8106.3

93.796.793.7

80.7102.780.7

61.4104.461.4

83.570.8983.5

7771.777

91.770.0691.7

88.572.1288.5

70.13102.8

68.4396.7

69.75102.7

71.53104.4

70.1470.89

68.9671.7

67.8870.06

64.6972.12

63.4170.13

63.1868.43

54.7169.75

71.53

70.14

68.96

67.88

64.69

63.41

63.18

54.71

conf_board_duke_fei

conf_board_duke_only

all

Optimism Firm

ConferenceBoard

Conference Board

(1) USOPT As Predictor

92.495.692.4

86.194.286.1

86.797.186.7

77.694.277.6

89.786.989.7

87.789.187.7

92.681.692.6

95.888.995.8

84.995.6

85.494.2

92.197.1

88.494.2

85.386.9

83.489.1

75.581.6

69.588.9

56.484.9

70.385.4

55.392.1

88.4

85.3

83.4

75.5

69.5

56.4

70.3

55.3

michigan_duke_fei

michigan_duke_only

all

Optimism Firm

Michigan

Michigan

(2) Factors Predicting USOPT

55.861.255.8

51.759.151.7

52.557.352.5

46.455.346.4

50.45450.4

55.15855.1

62.155.662.1

62.354.2662.3

52.7261.2

51.8659.1

51.5257.3

50.6855.3

53.4254

50.5258

48.4455.6

48.654.26

50.252.72

43.551.86

54.7151.52

50.68

53.42

50.52

48.44

48.6

50.2

43.5

54.71

ISM PMI_duke_fei

ISM PMI_duke_only

all

Firm Optimism

ISM PMI

ISM PMI

Sheet2

Correlations

US OptimismGDP0.1336142158

US OptimismCorpEarning0.4439365188

US OptimismCapx0.2628819663

US OptimismUnemploymt-0.3131039938

Sheet2

1.50156425663.21401562051.5015642566

1.82315827853.04287978841.8231582785

3.11601017923.26239362663.1160101792

3.74750837232.91493474613.7475083723

4.20203512173.36114232944.2020351217

4.20528926353.26609823794.2052892635

3.21196898152.39891342783.2119689815

3.18502873132.62793638583.1850287313

1.55840842233.2140156205

1.90640624763.0428797884

2.88254067173.2623936266

2.49533432412.9149347461

2.58685313253.3611423294

60.453.2660982379

56.952.3989134278

51.662.6279363858

51.781.5584084223

54.091.9064062476

41.762.8825406717

2.4953343241

2.5868531325

60.45

56.95

51.66

51.78

54.09

41.76

gdp_duke_fei

gdp_duke_only

all

Optimism US Econ

Future 4q GDP

Future 4q GDP

pct who say more optimistic

932.8251356.025932.825

963.0251387963.025

993.1251447.95993.125

1058.2251496.951058.225

1126.0251549.251126.025

1176.651642.051176.65

1231.2251668.5251231.225

1294.7751664.4251294.775

1662.151356.025

1650.7751387

1642.4251447.95

1636.351496.95

1601.551549.25

1564.151642.05

56.951668.525

51.661664.425

51.781662.15

54.091650.775

41.761642.425

1636.35

1601.55

1564.15

56.95

51.66

51.78

54.09

41.76

CorpEarnings_duke_fei

CorpEarnings_duke_only

all

Optimism US Econ

Avg. Corporate Earnings over Next 4 Qtrs.

Corporate Earnings

macro data

1055.8751219.21055.875

1063.851247.551063.85

1077.3751273.1251077.375

1091.4751308.61091.475

1108.51345.4251108.5

1128.351382.151128.35

1154.5251414.11154.525

1187.8251434.3251187.825

1455.6751219.2

1478.151247.55

1503.7751273.125

1528.0751308.6

1547.6251345.425

1562.5751382.15

56.951414.1

51.661434.325

51.781455.675

54.091478.15

41.761503.775

1528.075

1547.625

1562.575

56.95

51.66

51.78

54.09

41.76

CAPX_duke_fei

CAPX_duke_only

all

Optimism US Econ

Next

CAPX

Survey Variables as predictors

5.855.34166666675.85

5.95833333335.20833333335.9583333333

6.01666666675.16.0166666667

5.95833333334.96666666675.9583333333

5.86666666674.85833333335.8666666667

5.69166666674.79166666675.6916666667

5.554.66666666675.55

5.46666666674.59166666675.4666666667

4.54166666675.3416666667

4.53333333335.2083333333

4.59166666675.1

4.69166666674.9666666667

4.8754.8583333333

4.954.7916666667

5.03333333334.6666666667

5.154.5916666667

5.26666666674.5416666667

5.40833333334.5333333333

5.5754.5916666667

4.6916666667

4.875

4.95

5.0333333333

5.15

5.2666666667

5.4083333333

5.575



all

Optimism US Econ

Next 12 month Unemployment Rate

Next 12 Month Unemployment Rate

sig. macro prediction t-stats

2.37752.37753.6022

0.20230.20232.5481

1.20191.20193.0728

3.46913.46912.8127

7.48657.48654.462

2.65322.65321.1936

2.95962.95964.8204

3.48173.48172.4423

3.60223.60221.0655

2.54812.54812.0909

3.07283.07280.6016

2.81272.81273.8213

4.4624.4624.9072

1.19361.19360.5776

4.82044.82040.9593

2.44232.44232.825

1.06551.0655-0.514

2.09092.090954.09

0.60160.601641.76

3.82133.8213

4.90724.9072

0.57760.5776

0.95930.9593

2.8252.825

-0.514-0.514

54.09

GDP Growth_all

gdp growth qtr_duke_fei

gdp growth_duke_only

Level of optimisim (0-100)

Qtrly. GDP Growth (%,ann.)

Level of US optimisim as a predictor of GDP growth in survey quarter

Sheet1

932.825

963.025

993.125

1058.225

1126.025

1176.65

1231.225

1294.775

1356.025

1387

1447.95

1496.95

1549.25

1642.05

1668.525

1664.425

1662.15

1650.775

1642.425

1636.35

1601.55

1564.15

56.95

51.66

51.78

54.09

41.76

all

Optimism US Econ

Avg. Corp. Earnings over Next 4 Qtrs.

CFO Survey Predicts Corporate Earnings

regression

1055.875

1063.85

1077.375

1091.475

1108.5

1128.35

1154.525

1187.825

1219.2

1247.55

1273.125

1308.6

1345.425

1382.15

1414.1

1434.325

1455.675

1478.15

1503.775

1528.075

1547.625

1562.575

56.95

51.66

51.78

54.09

41.76

all

Optimism US Econ

Avg. Capital Spending over Next 4 Qtrs.

CFO Survey Forecasts Captial Expenditure

Correlations

Firm OptimismGDP-0.1550699679

Firm OptimismCorpEarning0.6838310406

Firm OptimismCapx0.5558643235

Firm OptimismUnemploymt-0.553731038

1.50156425663.21401562051.5015642566

1.82315827853.04287978841.8231582785

3.11601017923.26239362663.1160101792

3.74750837232.91493474613.7475083723

4.20203512173.36114232944.2020351217

4.20528926353.26609823794.2052892635

3.21196898152.39891342783.2119689815

3.18502873132.62793638583.1850287313

1.55840842233.2140156205

1.90640624763.0428797884

2.88254067173.2623936266

2.49533432412.9149347461

2.58685313253.3611423294

68.963.2660982379

67.882.3989134278

64.692.6279363858

63.411.5584084223

63.181.9064062476

54.712.8825406717

2.4953343241

2.5868531325

68.96

67.88

64.69

63.41

63.18

54.71

gdp_duke_fei

gdp_duke_duke_only

all

Optimism firm

Next 4q GDP growth

Newxt 4 Qtrs. GDP Growth

932.8251356.025932.825

963.0251387963.025

993.1251447.95993.125

1058.2251496.951058.225

1126.0251549.251126.025

1176.651642.051176.65

1231.2251668.5251231.225

1294.7751664.4251294.775

1662.151356.025

1650.7751387

1642.4251447.95

1636.351496.95

1601.551549.25

1564.151642.05

67.881668.525

64.691664.425

63.411662.15

63.181650.775

54.711642.425

1636.35

1601.55

1564.15

67.88

64.69

63.41

63.18

54.71

COrp_Earnings_duke_fei

COrp_Earnings_duke_only

all

Optimism Firm

Avg. Next 4q Corporate Earnings

Next 4 Qtr. Corporate Earnings

1055.875

1063.85

1077.375

1091.475

1108.5

1128.35

1154.525

1187.825

1219.2

1247.55

1273.125

1308.6

1345.425

1382.15

1414.1

1434.325

1455.675

1478.15

1503.775

1528.075

1547.625

1562.575

67.88

64.69

63.41

63.18

54.71

all

Optimism Firm

Avg. Next 4q Capital Spending

Next 4 Qtr. CAPX

5.855.34166666675.85

5.95833333335.20833333335.9583333333

6.01666666675.16.0166666667

5.95833333334.96666666675.9583333333

5.86666666674.85833333335.8666666667

5.69166666674.79166666675.6916666667

5.554.66666666675.55

5.46666666674.59166666675.4666666667

4.54166666675.3416666667

4.53333333335.2083333333

4.59166666675.1

4.69166666674.9666666667

4.8754.8583333333

4.954.7916666667

5.03333333334.6666666667

5.154.5916666667

5.26666666674.5416666667

5.40833333334.5333333333

5.5754.5916666667

4.6916666667

4.875

4.95

5.0333333333

5.15

5.2666666667

5.4083333333

5.575



all

US CFO Optimism About Own Firm



y = -0.0647x + 9.5994R2 = 0.3066, Corr=56%

2.37752.37753.6022

0.20230.20232.5481

1.20191.20193.0728

3.46913.46912.8127

7.48657.48654.462

2.65322.65321.1936

2.95962.95964.8204

3.48173.48172.4423

3.60223.60221.0655

2.54812.54812.0909

3.07283.07280.6016

2.81272.81273.8213

4.4624.4624.9072

1.19361.19360.5776

4.82044.82040.9593

2.44232.44232.825

1.06551.0655-0.514

2.09092.090963.18

0.60160.601654.71

3.82133.8213

4.90724.9072

0.57760.5776

0.95930.9593

2.8252.825

-0.514-0.514

GDP Growth qtr_all

gdp growth qtr_duke_fei

gdp growth qtr_duke_only

Level of optimisim (0-100)

Qtrly. GDP Growth (%,ann.)

Level of FIRM optimisim as a predictor of GDP growth in survey quarter

932.825

963.025

993.125

1058.225

1126.025

1176.65

1231.225

1294.775

1356.025

1387

1447.95

1496.95

1549.25

1642.05

1668.525

1664.425

1662.15

1650.775

1642.425

1636.35

1601.55

1564.15

67.88

64.69

63.41

63.18

54.71

all

Optimism Firm

Avg. Next 4q Corporate Earnings

Next 4 Qtr. Corporate Earnings

1055.875

1063.85

1077.375

1091.475

1108.5

1128.35

1154.525

1187.825

1219.2

1247.55

1273.125

1308.6

1345.425

1382.15

1414.1

1434.325

1455.675

1478.15

1503.775

1528.075

1547.625

1562.575

67.88

64.69

63.41

63.18

54.71

all

Optimism Firm

Avg. Next 4q Capital Spending

Next 4 Qtr. CAPX

5.85

5.9583333333

6.0166666667

5.9583333333

5.8666666667

5.6916666667

5.55

5.4666666667

5.3416666667

5.2083333333

5.1

4.9666666667

4.8583333333

4.7916666667

4.6666666667

4.5916666667

4.5416666667

4.5333333333

all

Optimism Firm



Correlations:

FEI US OptimismUBS0.7156608158

FEI US OptimismCEO0.5700354879

FEI US OptimismConfBoard0.5976664103

FEI US OptimismMichigan0.8115677185

FEI US OptimismISM PMI0.7475178187

729572

607460

527952

55

775077

546154

10450104

857985

5895

7474

9379

78

8950

6861

5050

2279

48.9258

41.7374

93

78

89

68

50

22

48.92

41.73

UBS Investor Optimism_fei duke

UBS Investor Optimism_fei_only

all

FEI Optimsm US Econ


UBS

y = 2.8634x - 122.98R2 = 0.4441

62.021671826696.562.0216718266

57.6038251366101.757.6038251366

52.798.952.7

49.349.3

64.594.364.5

67.795.967.7

89.6101.489.6

94.3102.294.3

98.696.5

82.4101.7

81.998.9

84.9

81.994.3

77.495.9

79.5101.4

79.5102.2

74.598.6

78.882.4

16.581.9

84.9

81.9

77.4

79.5

79.5

74.5

78.8

16.5

CEO Survey_duke_fei

CEO Survey_fei_only

all

FEI Optimism US Econ

CEO Survey

CEO Survey

y = 3.3529x - 139.9R2 = 0.7925

106.3102.8106.3

93.796.793.7

80.7102.780.7

61.4104.461.4

83.568.6683.5

7765.3577

91.769.6991.7

88.571.0688.5

68.64102.8

67.696.7

69.28102.7

69.29104.4

67.4668.66

62.8565.35

56.2669.69

54.2971.06

48.9268.64

41.7367.6

69.28

69.29

67.46

62.85

56.26

54.29

48.92

41.73

Conference Board_duke_fei

Conference Board_fei_only

all


ConferenceBoard

Conference Board

92.495.692.4

86.194.286.1

86.797.186.7

77.694.277.6

89.786.989.7

87.789.187.7

92.681.692.6

95.888.995.8

84.995.6

85.494.2

92.197.1

88.494.2

85.386.9

83.489.1

75.581.6

69.588.9

56.484.9

70.385.4

55.392.1

88.4

85.3

83.4

75.5

69.5

56.4

70.3

55.3

Michigan_duke_fei

Michigan_fei_only

all


Michigan

Michigan

55.861.255.8

51.759.151.7

52.557.352.5

46.455.346.4

50.45450.4

55.15855.1

62.155.662.1

62.354.2662.3

52.7261.2

51.8659.1

51.5257.3

50.6855.3

53.4254

50.5258

48.4455.6

48.654.26

50.252.72

43.551.86

51.52

50.68

53.42

50.52

48.44

48.6

50.2

43.5

ISM PMI_duke_fei

ISM PMI_fei_only

all


ISM PMI

ISM PMI

Correlations:

FEI Firm OptimismUBS0.4711568846

FEI Firm OptimismCEO0.8479211374

FEI Firm OptimismConfBoard0.6243983261

FEI Firm OptimismMichigan0.4537503065

FEI Firm OptimismISM PMI0.5642141383

729572

607460

527952

55

775077

546154

10450104

857985

5895

7474

9379

78

8950

6861

5050

2279

67.0658

61.7474

93

78

89

68

50

22

67.06

61.74

UBS_duke_fei

UBS_fei_only

all

FEI Optimism Firm


UBS

66.52812596.566.528125

65.4329608939101.765.4329608939

52.798.952.7

49.349.3

64.594.364.5

67.795.967.7

89.6101.489.6

94.3102.294.3

98.696.5

82.4101.7

81.998.9

84.9

81.994.3

77.495.9

79.5101.4

79.5102.2

74.598.6

78.882.4

16.581.9

84.9

81.9

77.4

79.5

79.5

74.5

78.8

16.5

CEO Survey_duke_fei

CEO Survey_fei_only

all

FEI Optimism Firm

CEO Survey

CEO Survey

106.3102.8106.3

93.796.793.7

80.7102.780.7

61.4104.461.4

83.574.0983.5

7773.4377

91.777.3791.7

88.578.1288.5

76.27102.8

75.4696.7

75.57102.7

73.62104.4

73.1974.09

71.6873.43

70.2677.37

68.1278.12

67.0676.27

61.7475.46

75.57

73.62

73.19

71.68

70.26

68.12

67.06

61.74

Conference Board_duke_fei

Conference Board_fei_only

all

FEI Optimism Firm

ConferenceBoard

Conference Board

92.495.692.4

86.194.286.1

86.797.186.7

77.694.277.6

89.786.989.7

87.789.187.7

92.681.692.6

95.888.995.8

84.995.6

85.494.2

92.197.1

88.494.2

85.386.9

83.489.1

75.581.6

69.588.9

56.484.9

70.385.4

55.392.1

88.4

85.3

83.4

75.5

69.5

56.4

70.3

55.3

Michigan_duke_fei

Michigan_fei_only

all

FEI Optimism Firm

Michigan

Michigan

55.861.255.8

51.759.151.7

52.557.352.5

46.455.346.4

50.45450.4

55.15855.1

62.155.662.1

62.354.2662.3

52.7261.2

51.8659.1

51.5257.3

50.6855.3

53.4254

50.5258

48.4455.6

48.654.26

50.252.72

43.551.86

51.52

50.68

53.42

50.52

48.44

48.6

50.2

43.5

ISM PMI_duke_fei

ISM PMI_fei_only

all

FEI Firm Optimism

ISM PMI

ISM PMI

Correlations

FEI US OptimismGDP-0.0555935546

FEI US OptimismCorpEarning0.6377542781

FEI US OptimismCapx0.4654358582

FEI US OptimismUnemploymt-0.397368019

1.50156425663.21401562051.5015642566

1.82315827853.04287978841.8231582785

3.11601017923.26239362663.1160101792

3.74750837232.91493474613.7475083723

4.20203512173.36114232944.2020351217

4.20528926353.26609823794.2052892635

3.21196898152.39891342783.2119689815

3.18502873132.62793638583.1850287313

1.55840842233.2140156205

1.90640624763.0428797884

2.88254067173.2623936266

2.49533432412.9149347461

2.58685313253.3611423294

62.853.2660982379

56.262.3989134278

54.292.6279363858

48.921.5584084223

41.731.9064062476

2.8825406717

2.4953343241

2.5868531325

62.85

56.26

54.29

48.92

41.73

GDP_duke_fei

GDP_fei_only

all


Future 4q GDP

Future 4q GDP

932.8251356.025932.825

963.0251387963.025

993.1251447.95993.125

1058.2251496.951058.225

1126.0251549.251126.025

1176.651642.051176.65

1231.2251668.5251231.225

1294.7751664.4251294.775

1662.151356.025

1650.7751387

1642.4251447.95

1636.351496.95

1601.551549.25

1564.151642.05

56.261668.525

54.291664.425

48.921662.15

41.731650.775

1642.425

1636.35

1601.55

1564.15

56.26

54.29

48.92

41.73

Corporate Earnings_duke_fei

Corporate Earnings_fei_only

all


Corporate Earnings

Corporate Earnings

1055.8751219.21055.875

1063.851247.551063.85

1077.3751273.1251077.375

1091.4751308.61091.475

1108.51345.4251108.5

1128.351382.151128.35

1154.5251414.11154.525

1187.8251434.3251187.825

1455.6751219.2

1478.151247.55

1503.7751273.125

1528.0751308.6

1547.6251345.425

1562.5751382.15

56.261414.1

54.291434.325

48.921455.675

41.731478.15

1503.775

1528.075

1547.625

1562.575

56.26

54.29

48.92

41.73

Capex_duke_fei

Capex_fei_only

all


Next 4q Capital Spending

CAPEX

5.855.34166666675.85

5.95833333335.20833333335.9583333333

6.01666666675.16.0166666667

5.95833333334.96666666675.9583333333

5.86666666674.85833333335.8666666667

5.69166666674.79166666675.6916666667

5.554.66666666675.55

5.46666666674.59166666675.4666666667

4.54166666675.3416666667

4.53333333335.2083333333

4.59166666675.1

4.69166666674.9666666667

4.8754.8583333333

4.954.7916666667

5.03333333334.6666666667

5.154.5916666667

5.26666666674.5416666667

5.40833333334.5333333333

5.5754.5916666667

4.6916666667

4.875

4.95

5.0333333333

5.15

5.2666666667

5.4083333333

5.575

Unemployment_duke_fei

Unemployment_fei_only

all


Next 12 Months Unemployment rate

Next 12 Months Unemployment Rate

Correlations

FEI Firm OptimismGDP-0.28969824

FEI Firm OptimismCorpEarning0.8440594622

FEI Firm OptimismCapx0.7025167901

FEI Firm OptimismUnemploymt-0.790837669

1.50156425663.21401562051.5015642566

1.82315827853.04287978841.8231582785

3.11601017923.26239362663.1160101792

3.74750837232.91493474613.7475083723

4.20203512173.36114232944.2020351217

4.20528926353.26609823794.2052892635

3.21196898152.39891342783.2119689815

3.18502873132.62793638583.1850287313

1.55840842233.2140156205

1.90640624763.0428797884

2.88254067173.2623936266

2.49533432412.9149347461

2.58685313253.3611423294

71.683.2660982379

70.262.3989134278

68.122.6279363858

67.061.5584084223

61.741.9064062476

2.8825406717

2.4953343241

2.5868531325

71.68

70.26

68.12

67.06

61.74

gdp_duke_fei

gdp_fei_only

all

FEI Optimism Firm

Next 4q GDP growth

GDP

932.8251356.025932.825

963.0251387963.025

993.1251447.95993.125

1058.2251496.951058.225

1126.0251549.251126.025

1176.651642.051176.65

1231.2251668.5251231.225

1294.7751664.4251294.775

1662.151356.025

1650.7751387

1642.4251447.95

1636.351496.95

1601.551549.25

1564.151642.05

70.261668.525

68.121664.425

67.061662.15

61.741650.775

1642.425

1636.35

1601.55

1564.15

70.26

68.12

67.06

61.74

Corporate Earnings_duke_fei

Corporate Earnings_fei_only

all

FEI Optimism Firm

Next 4q Corporate Earnings

Corporate Earnings

1055.8751219.21055.875

1063.851247.551063.85

1077.3751273.1251077.375

1091.4751308.61091.475

1108.51345.4251108.5

1128.351382.151128.35

1154.5251414.11154.525

1187.8251434.3251187.825

1455.6751219.2

1478.151247.55

1503.7751273.125

1528.0751308.6

1547.6251345.425

1562.5751382.15

70.261414.1

68.121434.325

67.061455.675

61.741478.15

1503.775

1528.075

1547.625

1562.575

70.26

68.12

67.06

61.74

CAPEX_duke_fei

CAPEX_fei_only

all

FEI Optimism Firm

Next 4q Capital Spending

CAPEX

5.855.34166666675.85

5.95833333335.20833333335.9583333333

6.01666666675.16.0166666667

5.95833333334.96666666675.9583333333

5.86666666674.85833333335.8666666667

5.69166666674.79166666675.6916666667

5.554.66666666675.55

5.46666666674.59166666675.4666666667

4.54166666675.3416666667

4.53333333335.2083333333

4.59166666675.1

4.69166666674.9666666667

4.8754.8583333333

4.954.7916666667

5.03333333334.6666666667

5.154.5916666667

5.26666666674.5416666667

5.40833333334.5333333333

5.5754.5916666667

4.6916666667

4.875

4.95

5.0333333333

5.15

5.2666666667

5.4083333333

5.575

Unemployment_duke_fei

Unemployment_fei_only

all

FEI Optimism Firm

Next 12 Months Unemployment rate

Next 12 Months Unemployment Rate

Correlations:

tt+1






Correlations:

tt+2






Correlations:

tt+3

US OptimismUBS-0.2154655931





60

52

5

77

54

104

85

95

74

79

50

61

50

79

58

74

93

GDP

Optimism US Econ(t)

UBS (t+1)

US optimism as a predictor of UBS

62.0216718266

52.7

49.3

64.5

67.7

89.6

94.3

96.5

101.7

98.9

94.3

95.9

101.4

102.2

98.6

82.4

81.9

GDP

Optimism US Econ(t)

CEO (t+1)

US optimism as a predictor of CEO

93.7

80.7

61.4

83.5

77

91.7

88.5

102.8

96.7

102.7

104.4

65.02

67.37

64.48

67.21

64.14

62.22

65.84

67.32

65.03

60.45

56.95

51.66

51.78

54.09

41.76

GDP

Optimism US Econ(t)

ConfBoard (t+1)

US optimism as a predictor of ConfBoard

86.1

86.7

77.6

89.7

87.7

92.6

95.8

95.6

94.2

97.1

86.9

89.1

81.6

88.9

84.9

85.4

92.1

88.4

85.3

83.4

75.5

69.5

56.4

70.3

55.3

41.76

GDP

Optimism US Econ(t)

Michigan (t+1)

US optimism as a predictor of MICHIGAN

51.7

52.5

46.4

50.4

55.1

62.1

62.3

61.2

59.1

57.3

54

58

55.6

54.26

52.72

51.86

51.52

50.68

53.42

50.52

48.44

48.6

50.2

43.5

54.09

41.76

GDP

Optimism US Econ(t)

ISM PMI (t+1)

US optimism as a predictor of ISM PMI

Correlations:

t+1t



US OptimismConfBoard-0.0044186429



57.6038251366

61.6514084507

55.4364640884

61.6754874652

65.1585365854

71.019138756

67.4816753927

68.9347826087

66.1631016043

67.2953736655

65.02

67.37

64.48

67.21

64.14

62.22

65.84

67.32

65.03

60.45

56.95

51.66

51.78

54.09

41.76

GDP

UBS(t)

Optimism US Econ(t+1)

UBS as predictor of US Optimism

57.6038251366

61.6514084507

55.4364640884

61.6754874652

65.1585365854

71.019138756

67.4816753927

68.9347826087

66.1631016043

67.2953736655

65.02

67.37

64.48

67.21

64.14

62.22

65.84

67.32

65.03

60.45

56.95

51.66

51.78

54.09

41.76

16.5

GDP

CEO(t)


CEO as predictor of US Optimism

57.6038251366

61.6514084507

55.4364640884

61.6754874652

65.1585365854

71.019138756

67.4816753927

68.9347826087

66.1631016043

67.2953736655

65.02

104.4

67.37

64.48

67.21

64.14

62.22

65.84

67.32

65.03

60.45

56.95

51.66

51.78

54.09

41.76

GDP

Conference Board (t)


Conference Board as predictor of US Optimism

57.6038251366

61.6514084507

55.4364640884

61.6754874652

65.1585365854

71.019138756

67.4816753927

68.9347826087

66.1631016043

67.2953736655

65.02

94.2

67.37

64.48

67.21

64.14

62.22

65.84

67.32

65.03

60.45

56.95

51.66

51.78

54.09

41.76

55.3

GDP

Michigan (t)


Michigan as predictor of US Optimism

57.6038251366

61.6514084507

55.4364640884

61.6754874652

65.1585365854

71.019138756

67.4816753927

68.9347826087

66.1631016043

67.2953736655

65.02

55.3

67.37

64.48

67.21

64.14

62.22

65.84

67.32

65.03

60.45

56.95

51.66

51.78

54.09

41.76

GDP

ISM PMI (t)


ISM PMI as predictor of US Optimism

qtrMore OptimisticLess OptimisticNo Change

Dec-0102q1

Mar-0202q2

Jun-0202q353.60%17.30%29.10%

Sep-0202q445.30%29.00%25.70%

Dec-0203q151.60%23.20%25.20%

Mar-0303q236.90%39.40%23.60%

Jun-0303q350.20%20.50%29.30%

Sep-0303q466.70%13.90%19.40%

Dec-0304q168.60%8.10%23.30%

Mar-0404q265.10%9.30%25.60%

Jun-0404q360.70%19.90%19.40%

Sep-0404q459.30%20.60%20.10%

Dec-0405q161.00%16.20%22.70%

Mar-0505q251.90%19.80%28.30%

Jun-0505q353.70%22.20%24.20%

Sep-0505q451.50%27.30%21.20%

Dec-0506q145.70%28.90%25.40%

Mar-0606q254.70%22.50%22.80%

Jun-0606q348.50%28.00%23.50%

Sep-0606q40.00%0%0.00%

Dec-0607q147.00%27.40%25.60%

Mar-0707q248.50%21.50%30.10%

Jun-0707q344.10%24.50%31.40%

Sep-0707q439.50%30.10%30.40%

Dec-0708q134.30%36.60%29.20%

Mar-0808q229.80%38.30%31.90%

Jun-0808q335.90%36.10%28.00%

Sep-0808q432.30%39.00%28.70%

Nov-0809q114.70%65.00%20.30%

*Data from release in december 2002 goes in 2003q1 and so on

QTR02q102q202q302q403q103q203q303q404q104q204q304q405q105q205q305q406q106q206q306q407q107q207q307q408q108q208q308q409q1US EconomyFIRMAverageDiffusion

US Economy% more99.647.545.356.12569.67488.165.372.255.754.246.440.128.632.142.42419.830.33526.313.68.98.221.128.59QTR% moreNo change% lessQtrly GDP growth, % annualizedMore OptimisticNo ChangeLess Optimistic% moreNo change% lessUS EconomyFIRMAverage

No change020.7291545.17.27.70.913.410.824.420.535.83434.529.132.530.232.834.837.64424.719.119.726.53010.502q1

% less0.431.825.72929.923.318.211.121.31719.925.317.725.936.938.825.145.947.434.827.429.861.77272.152.541.580.502q299.600.4

Qtrly GDP growth, % annualized2.74422.19482.37750.20231.20193.46917.48652.65322.95963.48173.60222.54813.07282.81274.4621.19364.82042.44231.06552.09090.60163.82134.90720.57760.95932.825-0.51402q347.520.731.82.744253.6029.1017.3050.5524.924.5515.736.3026

02q445.32925.72.194845.3025.7029.0045.327.3527.3519.616.3017.95

FIRMMore Optimistic53.6045.3051.6036.9050.2066.7068.6065.1060.7059.3061.0051.9053.7051.5045.7054.7048.5045.84748.544.139.534.329.835.932.314.703q156.115292.377551.6025.2023.2053.8520.126.127.128.4027.75

No Change29.1025.7025.2023.6029.3019.4023.3025.6019.4020.1022.7028.3024.2021.2025.4022.8023.5024.225.630.131.430.429.231.92828.720.303q22545.129.90.202336.9023.6039.4030.9534.3534.65-4.9-2.50-3.7

Less Optimistic17.3029.0023.2039.4020.5013.908.109.3019.9020.6016.2019.8022.2027.3028.9022.5028.003027.421.524.530.136.638.336.1396503q369.67.223.31.201950.2029.3020.5059.918.2521.946.329.7038

03q4747.718.23.469166.7019.4013.9070.3513.5516.0555.852.8054.3

Average% more50.5545.353.8530.9559.970.3578.3565.266.4557.557.649.1546.940.0538.948.5536.2532.838.6541.7535.226.5521.61928.530.411.8504q188.10.911.17.486568.6023.308.1078.3512.19.67760.5068.75

No change24.927.3520.134.3518.2513.5512.119.515.122.2521.632.0529.127.8527.2527.6526.8528.530.233.8537.727.5524.1525.827.2529.3515.404q265.313.421.32.653265.1025.609.3065.219.515.34455.8049.9

% less24.5527.3526.134.6521.916.059.615.318.4520.2520.7518.7524.0532.133.8523.836.9538.731.124.4527.1545.954.355.244.340.2572.7504q372.210.8172.959660.7019.4019.9066.4515.118.4555.240.8048

04q455.724.419.93.481759.3020.1020.6057.522.2520.2535.838.7037.25

DiffusionUS Economy15.719.627.1-4.946.355.8774455.235.828.928.714.2-8.3-6.717.3-21.9-27.6-4.57.6-3.5-48.1-63.1-63.9-31.4-13-71.505q154.220.525.33.602261.0022.7016.2057.621.620.7528.944.8036.85

FIRM36.3016.3028.40-2.5029.7052.8060.5055.8040.8038.7044.8032.1031.5024.2016.8032.2020.5015.8019.6027.0019.609.40-2.30-8.50-0.20-6.7-50.305q246.435.817.72.548151.9028.3019.8049.1532.0518.7528.732.1030.4

Average2617.9527.75-3.73854.368.7549.94837.2536.8530.422.857.955.0524.75-0.7-5.97.5517.38.05-19.35-32.7-36.2-15.8-9.85-60.905q340.13425.93.072853.7024.2022.2046.929.124.0514.231.5022.85

05q428.634.536.92.812751.5021.2027.3040.0527.8532.1-8.324.207.95

06q132.129.138.84.46245.7025.4028.9038.927.2533.85-6.716.805.05

06q242.432.525.11.193654.7022.8022.5048.5527.6523.817.332.2024.75

06q32430.245.94.820448.5023.5028.0036.2526.8536.95-21.920.50-0.7

06q419.832.847.42.442345.824.23032.828.538.7-27.615.80-5.9

07q130.334.834.81.06554725.627.438.6530.231.1-4.519.607.55

07q23537.627.42.090948.530.121.541.7533.8524.457.627.0017.3

07q326.34429.80.601644.131.424.535.237.727.15-3.519.608.05

07q413.624.761.73.821339.530.430.126.5527.5545.9-48.19.40-19.35

08q18.919.1724.907234.329.236.621.624.1554.3-63.1-2.30-32.7

08q28.219.772.10.577629.831.938.31925.855.2-63.9-8.50-36.2

08q321.126.552.50.959335.92836.128.527.2544.3-31.4-0.20-15.8

08q428.53041.52.82532.328.73930.429.3540.25-13-6.70-9.85

09q1910.580.5-0.51414.720.36511.8515.472.75-71.5-50.30-60.9

2.7442

2.1948

2.3775

0.2023

1.2019

3.4691

7.4865

2.6532

2.9596

3.4817

3.6022

2.5481

3.0728

2.8127

4.462

1.1936

4.8204

2.4423

1.0655

2.0909

0.6016

3.8213

4.9072

0.5776

0.9593

2.825

-0.514

GDP

US ECON% more optimistic in the survey for qtr q

GDP Growth(qtr q)

US ECON % More Optimistic as a Predictor of GDP Growth

1055.875

1063.85

1077.375

1091.475

1108.5

1128.35

1154.525

1187.825

1219.2

1247.55

1273.125

1308.6

1345.425

1382.15

1414.1

1434.325

1455.675

1478.15

1503.775

1528.075

1547.625

1562.575

8.9

8.2

21.1

28.5

9

GDP


CAPX (qtr q)

US ECON % More Optimistic as a Predictor of CAPX

5.85

5.9583333333

6.0166666667

5.9583333333

5.8666666667

5.6916666667

5.55

5.4666666667

5.3416666667

5.2083333333

5.1

4.9666666667

4.8583333333

4.7916666667

4.6666666667

4.5916666667

4.5416666667

4.5333333333

4.5916666667

4.6916666667

4.875

4.95

5.0333333333

5.15

5.2666666667

5.4083333333

5.575

GDP


Avg. Unemployment rate in next 12 months

US ECON % More Optimistic as a Predictor of Unemployment

932.825

963.025

993.125

1058.225

1126.025

1176.65

1231.225

1294.775

1356.025

1387

1447.95

1496.95

1549.25

1642.05

1668.525

1664.425

1662.15

1650.775

1642.425

1636.35

1601.55

1564.15

8.9

8.2

21.1

28.5

9

GDP


Earnings in the next 4 quarters

US ECON % More Optimistic as a Predictor of Earnings

2.7442

2.1948

2.3775

0.2023

1.2019

3.4691

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