business outlook global electronics industry€¦ · 28/02/2016 · business outlook global...

Business OutlookGlobal Electronics Industry

Custer Consulting Groupwww.custerconsulting.comFebruary 2016

20160218

SettingExpectations

Leading Indicators

Global "Purchasing Managers" IndexDiffusion Index, >50 = Growth

Markit Economics

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

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Sep

Jan

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Sep

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Jan

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Sep

Jan

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Sep

Jan

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Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016

PMI

20160201

U.S "Purchasing Managers" IndexMarkit Economics

Diffusion Index, >50 = Growth

Markit Economics & ISM

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

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Jan

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016

PMI

Markitzero growth

20160201

China "Purchasing Managers" IndexDiffusion Index, >50 = Growth

Markit Economics

20160201

40

45

50

55

60

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

PMI

50.2

49.6

50.2

51.0

51.0

52.3

50.1

52.3

52.3

52.4

46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0 60.0

Japan

France

Germany

Europe

USA

PMI

January

February

Purchasing Managers' Indices February (preliminary) vs. January 2016

Markit Economics

Above 50 = GrowthBelow 50 = Contraction

20160222

PMIsare a 2 to 6 month leading indicator

ofelectronics

growth

CCG Semiconductor Leading Indicator vs. Global Semiconductor Shipments

http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/

20160201

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016

CCG Semiconductor Leading Indicator

SIA Semiconductor Shipments

0 Growth

3/12 rate of growth

2-MonthLead

CurrencyExchange

Ratesvs

U.S. Dollar

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1 4710147101471014 7101 47101 47101471014 71014 7101 4710147101471014 7101 47101 47101471014 71014 7101 4710147101471014 7101 47101 47101471014 71014

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016

2015 average 12.5% greater Than 2014 average

0.800.901.001.101.201.301.401.501.601.70

1 6 11 4 9 2 7 12 5 10 3 8 1 6 11 4 9 2 7 12 5 10 3 8 1 6 11 4 9 2 7 12 5 10 3 8 1 6 11 4 9 2

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016

StrongEuro

Weak

Strongdollar

Exchange Rates vs. U.S. Dollar

EuroTrade weighted value of US$

0.800.90

1.001.101.201.30

1.401.501.601.70

1 6 11 4 9 2 7 12 5 10 3 8 1 6 11 4 9 2 7 12 5 10 3 8 1 6 11 4 9 2 7 12 5 10 3 8 1 6 11 4 9 2

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016

Canada

Weak

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016

Mexico

Weak

Exchange Rate Impact on US$ Denominated Consolidated World Electronic Equipment Sales

Quarterly Revenue Growth Converted to US$ @ Fixed 2014 vs Fluctuating Exchange

Global model based on regional shipment indices

20160217

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

% G

row

th

Fixed Fluctuating

Impact of strong US$Global growth @ constant exchange

but loss @ fluctuating exchange

Electronic Equipment

Global Electronics 2015 - ProductionIncluding Components

Reed Electronics Research 2/16

38%

22%

7%

18%

11%

3% 1%

ChinaAsia Pacific (excl China)JapanAmericasW EuropeCentral & E EuropeROW

Total US$ 1,861 Billion

20160205

End-Use MarketsSize ($B) & Growth Rates

20151212

IC Insights 12/15

20150308

Methods to Measure Electronic Industry Growth

Sector composites based upon financial reports of similar companies- Typically quarterly, semiannually or monthly

Government and trade organization statistics- Typically monthly

- TIMELY DATA REPORTED ON A CONSISTENT BASIS IS KEY

Sector composites based upon

financial reports of similar companies

Electronic Equipment SuppliersComposite of 175 Public Companies

Revenue, Net Income & Inventory

Computer 13, Internet 12, Storage 10, Communication 20, SEMI 37, Medical 21, Instruments 12, Military 21, Business & Office 6, Consumer 13, Automotive 11

20160219

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Revenue

Income

Inventory

US $ (billions) converted @ fluctuating exchange rates

-6.6%preliminary4Q’15 data

World Electronic Equipment Production by Type@2014 Exchange Rates

Electronic Outlook 9/15

2.2%

21.3%

12.0%

8.1%25.9%

8.5%

9.9%

12.2%BusinessCommunicationConsumerAutoComputerMilitaryIndustrialInstrument

20150912

World Electronic Equipment ProductionBy Type (preliminary 4Q’15 results)20160219

0

500

1000

1500

2000


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

industr+instrugov/milComputer & PeripheralsautomotiveconsumerTelecom/DatacomBusiness

-6.6%Annual Rate $B (converted @ fluctuating exchange rates)

Regional DataU.S.

EuropeJapan

China/TaiwanS Korea

U.S. Electronic Equipment Orders & ShipmentsComputer, Communications, Measurement & Control and Military

www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/

20150225

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Orders

Shipments

$ Billions (monthly, seasonally adjusted)

European Computer, Electronic & Optical Products Production

Eurostat, C26 category, EU 27 countries

20160212

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016

Index (2010=100), Seasonally Adjusted

Japan Electronic Equipment Production by Month 2000 to Present

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1 6 11 4 9 2 7 12 5 10 3 8 1 6 11 4 9 2 7 12 5 10 3 8 1 6 11 4 9 2 7 12 5 10 3 8 1 6 11

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016

Elec Application EquipElectronic Measuring InstrumentationCommunications EquipmentComputers & Related EquipmentElectronic Business MachinesConsumer Electronic Equipment

JEITA www.jeita.or.jp/

20160219

Yen Billion

Taiwan/China Electronic Equipment ProducersComposite of 101 Manufacturers

Consolidated Revenue

Taiwan listed companies, often with significant manufacturing in China

20160216

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

January 2016 down 14% compared to January 2015 and down sequentially 21% compared to December 2015

NT$ Billions

S Korea Electronic Equipment ProducersComposite of 7 Manufacturers

20160223

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

KRW Trillions

Samsung Electronics, LG Electronics, Daewoo Electronic Components, Samsung SDI, Dongbu Hitek, SK Hynix, KEC Corp

Very preliminary4Q’15 estimate

Regional Electronic Equipment Shipment Growth

20160225

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

USA

Europe

Japan

China/Taiwan

Korea

Zero Growth

3/12 Rate of Growth (in local currency)

Sources: IPC, JPCA, Taiwan/China composite; S Korea composite; Eurostat "wiring devices" for Europe

Calendar Year

World Electronic Equipment Monthly Shipments

Converted @ Fluctuating Exchange Rates

Source: Custer Consulting Group & Electronic Outlook Corp

0102030405060708090

100

Jan

Jun

Nov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

Aug Ja

nJu

nN

ov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

Aug Ja

nJu

nN

ov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016

USAEuropeJapanChinaTaiwanKoreaROAROW

US$ B

20160225

World Electronic Equipment Monthly Shipments

Converted @ Constant 2014 vs Fluctuating Exchange Rates

Source: Custer Consulting Group & Electronic Outlook Corp

20160225

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

Jan

Jun

Nov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

Aug Ja

nJu

nN

ov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

Aug Ja

nJu

nN

ov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016

Constant 2014

Fluctuating

US$ M

8.3%Difference

Conclusion:Demand has weakened but

also the strong dollarhas significantly impacted

global growth rates consolidated into US$

U.S. Electronic Equipment -Orders, Shipments &

Inventories

U.S. Electronic Equipment Order & Shipment GrowthComputer, Communications, Measurement & Control and Military


20160225

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016

ShipmentsOrdersZero Growth

3/12 Rate of Change

U.S. Electronic Equipment OrdersMonthly Data


20160204

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan

Jun

Nov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

Aug Ja

nJu

nN

ov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

Aug Ja

nJu

nN

ov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

Aug Ja

nJu

nN

ov

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Medical, Measuring & Control

Search & Navigation - non Military

Communication- non Military

Computer & Related

Military-Search & Navigation

Military-Communications


U.S. Electronic Equipment Inventories vs. Orders


20160225

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20

2.40

Jan

Jun

Nov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

Aug Ja

nJu

nN

ov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

Aug Ja

nJu

nN

ov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

Aug Ja

nJu

nN

ov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

Aug Ja

nJu

nN

ov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016

Ratio Inventories/Orders

Market Segments

Volume (Shift to Low Cost Areas)Personal ComputersMobile PhonesOther Consumer ElectronicsDatacom/TelecomAutomotive

"Protected"MilitaryMedicalInstruments & ControlsHigh IP Content

Prototype, Quick Response, Short Run, Need for Local Support

Global Electronic Supply Chain Growth 4Q'15 vs. 4Q'14 (preliminary)

-7-14

-7-6

2-3

1-7

-10-7

-9-5

-5-2-2

-21

-1-10

-7-7

-15 -10 -5 0 5Electronic Equipment

MilitaryBusiness & Office

Instruments & ControlsMedical

CommunicationInternet

ComputerData Storage

AutomotiveConsumer

SEMI EquipSemiconductors (SIA)Passive Components

PCBsComponent Distributors

Large EMS (excl Foxconn)ODM

Process EquipmentMaterials

Rigid & Flex Laminate

% US$ Change

20160223

US$ equivalent at fluctuating exchange; based upon industry composites including acquisitions

High VolumeConsumer Driven

Markets

ChangingElectronicEquipment

Markets

Communication Equipment SuppliersComposite of 20 Companies

10 mobile phone makers, 10 other telecom equipment makers plus estimate of other mobile makers


3COM, ADC Telecom, Alcatel+Lucent, Ciena, Ericsson, Motorola Solutions,, Nokia, Polycom, TellLabs, Palm ; Apple iPhone, HTC, Huawei Device, LG, Motorola Mobility, Nokia, RIM, Samsung, Sony Mobility, ZTE; Euros & Krona converted at fluctuating exchange; mobile phone volumes from company reports & Gartner Dataquest quarterly unit shipment estimates; historical data included for acquired companies

20160219

-50

0

50

100

150

200


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$ Billions

Mill

ions Revenue

Income

Inventory

-2.6%

Preliminary 4Q’15 estimate

Smartphone Unit Shipments to End UsersWorld

Gartner Dataquest 2/16 & prior reports

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Thou

sand

s

Units (Millions)

20160218

Apple Inc.Revenue, Net Income & Inventory

CY

20151031

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$ Billions

Revenue

Income

Inventory

+ 22%

75.5-77.510/27/15

AAPLFY ends September

Apple Product Mix20151028

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Q1Q2 Q3Q4 Q1 Q2Q3 Q4Q1 Q2Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3Q4 Q1Q2 Q3Q4 Q1 Q2Q3 Q4Q1 Q2Q3 Q4 Q1Q2 Q3Q4 Q1Q2 Q3

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Software ServicePeripherals/Oth HardwareMusiciPodDesktop/NotebookiPadiPhone

Quarterly Revenues $B

Computer Equipment SuppliersComposite of 13 Public Companies


Acer+Gateway, Apple, Creative Tech, Cray, Dell, HP, IBM, Lenovo, Mercury, NCR, Sun Micro, UnisysOther vendors media tablet sales estimated from unit shipments

20160219

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$ Billions

Mill

ions Revenue

Income

Inventory

-7.3%Apple iPhone financials reported in Communication sector Media tablets from all vendors included with "Computer Equipment“


Total Personal Computer Unit Growth20150904

IC Insights 9/15

Media TabletsWorld Top 5 Vendors

IDC 1/16 & earlier

20160206

2011Q4

2012Q1

2012Q2

2012Q3

2012Q4

2013Q1

2013Q2

2013Q3

2013Q4

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

Others 5.5 4.9 7.4 13.5 11.6 15.5 16.4 16.0 24.6 16.6 19.1 23.0 33.1 18.6 20.4 23.9 30.2RCA 0.9 2.6Barnes & Noble 1.4 1.0Microsoft 0.0 0.9Amazon 4.7 0.7 5.9 1.8 5.8 1.0 1.9 5.2LG Electronics 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.4 1.6Huawei 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.8 2.2Acer 0.4 0.3 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.7 1.0Lenovo 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.6 1.5 2.3 3.4 2.0 2.4 3.1 3.7 2.5 2.5 3.1 3.2Asus 0.6 0.6 0.9 2.3 3.1 2.6 2.0 3.6 4.0 2.6 2.3 3.4 3.0 1.8 1.9Samsung 2.2 2.3 2.1 4.3 7.8 8.5 8.4 9.3 13.5 10.8 8.6 9.7 11.0 8.4 7.6 8.0 9.0Apple 15.1 11.8 17.0 14.0 22.9 19.5 14.6 14.1 26.0 16.4 13.3 12.3 21.4 12.6 10.9 9.9 16.1

0102030405060708090

Units (millions)

Digital Still Cameras Built-in & Interchangeable Lens

20160218

0100020003000400050006000700080009000

10000

1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11

2012 2013 2014 2015

SLRnon-SLRBuilt-in LensInterchangeable Lens

Global Shipment Units (000)

www.cipa.jp/

Smartphones Cannibalize PCs, Tablets & Digital Cameras

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Thou

sand

s Smartphones PCs Tablets Digital Still CamerasWorld Units (Millions)

20160218

www.gartner.com; www.cipa.jp/; www.icinsights.com; www.idc.com; www.digitimes.com

Data Storage Equipment SuppliersComposite of 12 Public Companies


Brocade, EMC, Iomega, Lexar, Maxtor, Network Appliance, Netlist, Qlogic, Quantum, Seagate, Storage Technology, Western Digital, SanDisk. Companies now no longer operating were included in historical data until they shut down

20160211

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$ Billions

Revenue

Income

Inventory

-9.5%Preliminary 4Q’15 estimate

Local Markets

AutomotiveElectronics

Automotive Equipment SuppliersComposite of 11 Public Companies


Autoliv, Borg Warner, Continental AG, Delphi, Federal Mogul, Gentex, Johnson Controls, Lear, TRW Automotive, Valeo, Visteon

20160219

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$ BillionsRevenueIncomeInventory


U.S. Vehicle Shipments

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Lt Trucks & Utility Vehicles Heavy Duty Trucks Automobiles

www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

20160204

US$ Billion

TeslaRevenue, Net Income & Inventory

CY

20160222

-900

-400

100

600

1100

1600

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2013 2014 2015

$ Millions Revenue

Income

Inventory+27%

TSLA

Aviation, Government &

Military Electronics

Military EquipmentComposite of 21 Public Companies


Boeing (military portion), EADS (military portion), Finmeccinica,General Dynamics, Halliburton, Harris, Honeywell (military portion), L-3 Communications, Lockheed, Moog, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, Rockwell Collins, Textron, Thales, United Technology

20160219

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$ Billions

Mill

ions Revenue

Income

Inventory


U.S. Military Electronics Orders & ShipmentsDefense Communication & Search & Navigation Equipment


20160204

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Thou

sand

s Orders

Shipments


U.S. Aircraft & Parts Shipments

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Non-Defense Defense

www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

US$ Billion

20160225

Instruments & Control Equipment

U.S. Electromedical, Measurement & Control EquipmentOrders & Shipments


20160204

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Jan

Apr Ju

lO

ctJa

nA

pr Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr Ju

lO

ctJa

nA

pr Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr Ju

lO

ctJa

nA

pr Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr Ju

lO

ctJa

nA

pr Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr Ju

lO

ctJa

nA

pr Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr Ju

lO

ctJa

nA

pr Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr Ju

lO

ctJa

nA

pr Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr Ju

lO

ctJa

nA

pr Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr Ju

lO

ctJa

n

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Orders

Shipments


Medical EquipmentComposite of 21 Public Companies


Analogic, Bio-Rad Laboratories, Boston Scientific, Bruker, CareFusion, Covidien, Draeger, Guidant, Hill-Rom, Intuitive Surgical, Invacare, Medtronic, ResMed, St Jude Medical, Smith & Nephew, STERIS, Stryker, Varian Medical, Waters, Zimmer

20160219

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$ Billions

Mill

ions Revenue

Income

Inventory

+2.3%


Future High Volume Markets

Autonomous cars

Internet of Things

Drones

Robots

Wearables

Internet of ThingsInstalled Base by Category

Gartner 11/15

20160224

2014 2015 2016 2020Total 3,807 4,903 6,392 20,797Business Vertical-Specific 898 1,065 1,276 2,880Business Cross-industry 632 815 1,092 4,408Consumer 2,277 3,023 4,024 13,509

3,807 4,9036,392

20,797

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000Units (millions)

World Spending on Robots

BCG Analysis 9/14, International Federation of Robots, Japan Robot Assoc, Japan Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry,euRobotics, company filings

20140906

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Total 7.4 10.8 15.1 26.9 42.9 66.9Military 2.4 3.5 5.1 7.5 11.2 16.5Industrial 3.9 5.2 5.8 11.0 16.4 24.4Commercial 1.1 1.7 3.2 5.9 10.8 17.0Personal 0.0 0.4 1.0 2.5 4.5 9.0

7.410.8

15.1

26.9

42.9

66.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80US$ (Billions)

N American Robot OrdersShipments by N American Companies to N America

www.robotics.org

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

10.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2011 2012 2013 2014

Units $Units (000) US$ (Millions)

Automotive industry was primary growth driver in 2015

20160221

Fastest growing applications for robot orders in N America in 2015 were Coating and Dispensing (+49%), Material Handling (+24%), and Spot Welding (+22%).

Wearable Devices 2015-2017Millions of Devices

Gartner 2/2016

20160221

Device 2015 2016 2017Smartwatch 30.3 50.4 66.7Head-mounted Display 0.1 1.4 6.3Body-worn Camera 0.1 0.2 1.1Bluetooth Headset 116.3 128.5 139.2Wristband 30.2 35.0 44.1Smart Garment 0.1 1.0 5.3Chest Strap 12.9 13.0 8.0Sports Watch 21.0 24.0 26.9Other Fitnes Monitor 21.1 21.1 25.1Total 232.0 274.6 322.7

Semiconductor Fab, Assembly, Packaging,Test & Measurement

Equipment

Semiconductor Fab, Test & Measurement Composite of 37 Public Companies


Advantest, Applied Materials, ASM Intl, ASML, Brooks Automation, BTU, CollabRx, Dainippon Screen, Disco, Electroglas, Entegris, FEI, FSI, Hitachi Hi Tech, Hitachi Kokosai, KLA-Tencor, Ibis, Intervac, Kulicke & Soffa, Lam Research, Mattson,MKS Instrument, Novellus Systems, Photon Dynamics, Rudolph Technologies, Teradyne, Tokyo Electron, Ultra Clear, Ultratech Stepper, Varian Semiconductor, Veeco, Xcerra (LTX-Credence)

10`60219

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

US$ Billions @ fluctuating exchange

Chart TitleRevenue

Income

Inventory


Semiconductor Capital Equipment Shipments by Area

www.semi.org, www.seaj.or.jp/ 12/15

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

ROW

China

Taiwan

S Korea

N America

Japan

Europe

$ Billions

+9.4%

Global Semiconductor & Semiconductor Capital Equipment3-Month Shipment Growth Rates on $ Basis

Sources: SIA; Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan, www.semi.org, Custer Consulting Group SEMI equipment sector composite growth

20160205

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1516

SemiconductorsSEMI Capital EquipZero Growth

3/12 Rate of Change

Component Distributors

Electronic Component DistributorsComposite of 9 US Public Companies


Arrow, Avnet, EACO (Bisco), Electrocomponents, Excelpoint, Nu Horizons (historical), Richardson, WPG Holdings, WT Microelectronics

20160219

-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.0

10.012.014.016.0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$ Billions

Revenue

Income

Inventory


DMASS - European Semiconductor Distribution Industry

http://dmass.com/ 2/16

20160218

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Other France UK Italy Germany

$ Millions

DMASSEuropean Semiconductor Distribution Industry

20160218

20092200

594 667536 605

500 561735

958

14001596

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2014 2015

Euros (Millions)

GermanyItalyUKFranceE EuropeOther

DMASS 2/2016; http://dmass.com/

DMASS estimates that 60% of the increase in 2015 was due to the exchange rate swing, in other words, the organic growth lay between 6 and 7%.

"As predicted, we enjoyed record business in distribution in 2015, at least from a sales perspective. What is different to previous years is the fact that no shortages accompanied this double-digit growth, product availability was never an issue. A big part of the success story is a purely technical effect that will disappear in 2016, unless the exchange rates run riot again. All signs - currency effects, economy, and Chinese downturn - would lead to conclude that we will encounter a far more solemn business environment in 2016."

EMS & ODM Companies

Global EMS & ODM Companies Composite of 52 Public Companies

Revenue

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

US$ Sales @ fluctuating exchange

Mill

ions -5.9%

20160211

US $ Billions

Very preliminary 4Q’15 estimate

2015/20142014 2015 Growth %

Hon Hai (Foxconn) Taiwan 138,765 141,717 +2%Flextronics Singapore 26,920 24,598 -9%Jabil Circuit USA 15,969 18,557 +16%Sanmina-SCI USA 6,439 6,238 -3%Celestica Canada 5,631 5,639 0%Benchmark Elec USA 2,797 2,541 -9%Plexus USA 2,509 2,606 +4%Venture Mfg Singapore 1,945 1,928 -1%Sypris USA 355 153 -57%

Total 201,331 204,291 +1.5%

Large Global EMS Providers20160211

Sources: Company dataLocal currency converted at fluctuating exchange

2014 vs. 2015 Sales ($M)

Large U.S EMS Providers Composite of 6 Public Companies


Benchmark+Pemstar, Celestica, Flex+Solectron, Jabil, Plexus, Sanmina

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Revenue

Income

Inventory

+1.0%

20160211

Very preliminary 4Q’15 estimate & 1Q’16 projection

2015/20142014 2015 Growth %

Foxconn (Hon Hai) 139,032 141,202 +1.6%Pegatron 33,632 38,224 +13.7%Quanta Computer 30,566 31,726 +3.8%Compal Electronics 27,909 26,685 -4.4%Wistron 19,534 19,631 +0.5%Asustek Computer 15,747 14,875 -5.5%Inventec 14,376 12,456 -13.4%Chimei Innolux 14,145 11,469 -18.9%Lite On Technology 7,611 6,828 -10.3%Total 302,551 303,094 +0.2%

Large Taiwan ODM Providers20160111

Source: Company data, NT$ converted at constant avg 2015 exchange (31.75 NT$ = 1US$)Consolidated company sales

2014 vs. 2015 Sales ($M)

Taiwan ODM CompaniesComposite Sales of 11 Large Manufacturers

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Jan 2016 down 15% vs. Jan 2015 and down 21%sequentially from Dec 2015

NT$ (Billions)

Asustek Computer, Chei Mei, Compal Electronics, Foxconn, Chimei Innolux , Inventec, Inventec Appliance, Lite On Technology, Mitac International, Pegatron, Quanta Computer, Wistron, Chei Mei Display replacing Chei Mei & Innolux Display 3/10 & later

Calendar YearCompany Financial Releases

Large ODM Companies Composite of 10 Public Manufacturers

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Asustek Computer, Compal Electronics, Foxconn, Chimei Innolux, Inventec, Inventec Appliance, Lite On Technology, Mitac International, Pegatron, Quanta Computer, Wistron

20160111

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

IPC Small & Medium N American EMS Company Revenue Index

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

20160224

Index 2010 avg month = 100

IPC Small/Medium EMS vs Composite of 53 Public EMS/ODM Companies

Revenue

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Q1 Q3Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3Q1 Q3

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

53 CompanyIPC Small/Medium

20160224

US $ Billions

U.S PMI Leading Index vsIPC N American EMS Shipments

ISM & IPC

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

Jan

Apr Ju

lO

ctJa

nA

pr Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr Ju

lO

ctJa

nA

pr Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr Ju

lO

ctJa

nA

pr Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr Ju

lO

ctJa

nA

pr Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr Ju

lO

ctJa

n

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

U.S. PMI LeadingIndicatorIPC N Amer EMSShipmentsZero Growth

20160224

3/12 Growth

1 yearLead

US PMIIs a 1-year leadingIndicator for US EMS shipments

PCB Fabrication

World PCB Production 1980-2014

IPC: World PCB Production Report 2014, Custer estimate for 2015

20150930

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Thou

sand

s

US$

Calendar Year

Note: Each year was calculated independently using exchange rates for that year.

Because each year involved an independent evaluation and because exchange rates can fluctuate significantly, year-to-year growth rates may not be meaningful.

"Fluctuating exchange" growth rates can be significantly different vs. those calculated using constant exchange rates.

World’s Top PCB Companies – 20141-25

20150728

Dr Hayao Nakahara, N.T. Information Ltd 7/2015

Rank Company Nationality 2013 2014 Growth Brief Comments1 Nippon Mektron* Japan 2,209 3,176 43.78% A big Apple supplier2 ZDT* Taiwan 2,106 2,483 17.90% A big Apple supplier3 Unimicron Taiwan 2,009 2,130 6.02% Building PCB plants in Huangxi4 SEMCO S. Korea 1,795 1,562 -12.98% Building plants in Vietnam5 Young Poong Grp* S. Korea 2,100 1,523 -27.48% Interflex & YPE poor in 20146 Ibiden Japan 1,315 1,493 13.54% Boosting growth from Malaysia7 TTM Technologies USA 1,326 1,422 7.24% Purchased Viasystems on 5/'158 Sumitomo Denko* Japan 1,121 1,414 26.14% A big Apple supplier9 Tripod Taiwan 1,337 1,391 4.08% Pushing into automotive PCB10 Viasystems USA 1,171 1,204 2.82% Purchased by TTM 5/31/201511 Daeduck Group S. Korea 1,297 1,159 -10.64% Careful investment12 Nanya PCB Taiwan 1,016 1,146 8.09% IC substrates seem to grow13 Compeq Taiwan 1,013 1,110 9.55% Chongqing plant contributing14 PSA PCB Group Taiwan 957 970 1.36% NB mortherboards reduced15 KG PCB Group China 922 963 4.45% Elec& Eltek is the largest16 AT&S Austria 784 886 13.01% CKG plant starts business soon17 Meiko Japan 692 850 22.83% #3 automotive PCB maker18 Kinsus Taiwan 757 818 7.97% Flip-Chip CSP strong19 LG Innotek S. Korea 581 791 36.14% LGE & Qualcomm20 T.P.T. Taiwan 684 784 14.60% NB motherboards increasing21 Multek USA 730 750 2.74% Profitable since Oct 201322 WUS Group Taiwan 658 698 6.08% Kunshan & Huangxi new plants23 Chin Poon Taiwan 634 697 9.93% #1 automotive PCB maker24 CMK Japan 621 689 10.95% #2 automotive PCB maker25 Nitto Denko* Japan 485 684 41.03% FPC for HDD among others

Japan PCB Shipments20160219

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

Sep

May Jan

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1516

Yen (Billions)

Calendar Yearwww.jpca.org/kikaitoukei/kikai2013.xls

2015/2014+6.1%

Taiwan Rigid & Flex PCB ShipmentsBroad Composite of 46 Taiwan-listed Manufacturers

20160220

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

2015 down 1.9% vs. 2014 in NT$ and down 6.3% at fluctuating exchange in U.S. dollars

NT$ (Billions)

Calendar YearCompany Financial Releases

S. Korean PCB RevenuesComposite of 11 Publicly Traded Manufacturers

Quarterly Revenue

Samsung EM, Young Poong, Daeduck, Simm Tech, Isu Petasys, Flexcom, DAP, BH, Samsung Techwin, Korea Circuit

20151117

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mill

ions

KRW BillionVery preliminary4Q’15 estimate

N American Rigid & Flexible PCB Shipments & Orders20160129

0

50

100

150

200

250

1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Shipments

Orders

2015/2014 Rigid & Flex PCB Shipment Growth:

+0.5%

Note: IPC survey captures "market" not domestic production. About 15% of the above represents imported boards resold by N American PCB producers in survey.

$M (statistical sample of about 50% of producers)

IPC

U.S Electronic Supply Chain Shipment Growth 4Q’15 vs. 4Q’14

27

5-3

80

644

151

34-1

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Electronic EquipmentElectromedical, Measurement & Control

Search & NavigationComputer Related

CommunicationDefense

AutomotiveAirplane/Aerospace - non Defense

Airplane/Aerospace - Defense

Semiconductors to N AmericaPCBs

Passive componentsIndustrial Production

% Change

20160204

Custer Consulting Group

World PCB Model

2014 World Total PCB Production by Geographical Area

IPC 9/15

5.0%

4.3%

9.8%

46.8%

13.0%

12.6% 8.0% 0.4%

N AmericaEuropeJapanChina/HKTaiwanS KoreaRest of AsiaROW

20150930

Total: $60.2 Billion

(US$ M @ Average 2014 Exchange)

Regional PCB Shipment Growth20160219

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Taiwan/ChinaS KoreaJapanN AmericaEuropeZero Growth

3/12 Rate of Growth (in local currency)

Sources: IPC, JPCA, Taiwan/China composite; Eurostat "wiring devices" for Europe

Calendar Year

World PCB Monthly ShipmentsConverted @ Fluctuating Exchange Rates

20160219

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

May Sep

Jan

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

N AmericaEuropeJapanTaiwan/ChinaRest of AsiaKorea

$ Billions

Source: Custer Consulting GroupCalendar Year

Outlook

Global PMI, Electronic Equipment, PCB & Semiconductor Shipments20160216

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Mar Ju

lN

ov Mar Ju

lN

ov Mar Ju

lN

ov Mar Ju

lN

ov Mar Ju

lN

ov Mar Ju

lN

ov Mar Ju

lN

ov Mar Ju

lN

ov Mar Ju

lN

ov Mar Ju

lN

ov Mar Ju

lN

ov Mar Ju

lN

ov Mar Ju

lN

ov Mar Ju

lN

ov Mar Ju

lN

ov Mar Ju

lN

ov Mar

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

PCBSemiconductorElec EquipGlobal PMIZero Growth

3/12 Rate of Change

Source: Custer Consulting GroupCalendar Year

Worldwide Semiconductor Market by GeographyWSTS Forecast

WSTS 2/16

20160225

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Total 149. 204. 138. 140. 166. 213. 227. 247. 255. 248. 226. 298. 299. 291. 305. 335. 335. 336. 346.Asia Pacific 37.2 51.3 39.8 51.2 62.8 88.8 103. 116. 123. 124. 119. 160. 164. 163. 174. 194. 201. 201. 207.Japan 32.8 46.7 33.1 30.5 38.9 45.8 44.1 46.4 48.8 48.5 38.3 46.6 42.9 41.1 34.8 34.8 31.1 31.3 32.1Europe 31.9 42.3 30.2 27.8 32.3 39.4 39.1 39.9 41.0 38.2 29.9 38.1 37.4 33.2 34.9 37.5 34.3 33.7 34.5Americas 47.5 64.1 35.8 31.3 32.3 39.1 40.7 44.9 42.3 37.9 38.5 53.7 55.2 54.4 61.5 69.3 68.7 69.7 72.0

149

204

139 141166

213227

248 256 249226

298 300 292306

336 335 336 346

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Global Growth RatesProcess Equipment, Materials & Laminate

20160223

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Process Eq

Materials

Laminate

Zero Growth

3/12 Rate of Change

Company Financials of 12 Laminate suppliers, 13 material suppliers & 8 Process Equipment Suppliers

Calendar Year

U.S PMI Leading Index vsN American Small-Medium Company EMS Shipments

ISM & IPC

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

Jan

Apr Ju

lO

ctJa

nA

pr Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr Ju

lO

ctJa

nA

pr Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr Ju

lO

ctJa

nA

pr Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr Ju

lO

ctJa

nA

pr Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr Ju

lO

ctJa

n

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

U.S. PMI LeadingIndicatorIPC N Amer EMSShipmentsZero Growth

20160224

3/12 Growth

1 yearLead

US PMIIs a 1-year leadingIndicator for US EMS shipments

World PCB Shipments (with forecast)Converted @ Fluctuating Exchange Rates

20160219

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

ActualForecast

-1.2%

-0.6%

$ Billions

Source: Custer Consulting Group - 2010 base year expanded by monthly growth of N. American, European, Japanese, Korean & Taiwan/China monthly PCB shipments

Calendar Year

Growth calculations:Europe = Eurostat “Wiring Device”Japan & N. America from JPCA & IPC dataTaiwan/China:46 rigid & flex company compositeRest of Asia growth = Taiwan/China 44 company compositeIncludes S Korea data for 2011-2014

+0.5%

World Rigid & Flex PCB ProductionConverted @ 10/15 Exchange Rates

Custer Consulting Group 2/16

20151004

59.9 59.8 59.8 60.2 59.8 61.6 61.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Americas Germany Other Europe China Japan Taiwan S Korea Other Asia$ Billion

Conclusions2015 global growth slowed vs 2014 with many Asia/Pacific produced consumer driven products seeing weakened demand

2016 is off to a modest start

Personal computer, media tablet and digital camera sales have declined and smartphone growth has slowed

New high volume products are emerging but are not yet contributing significantly to global volumes

Strong dollar is negatively impacting US$ denominated global growth calculations

Leading indicators are useful for tracking the recovery regionally

20160111

Don’tShoot

theMessenger

Custer Consulting Group Products

Daily News Services (6 days/week)- Global electronics supply chain- Solar/Photovoltaic supply chain

Business Outlook- Market charts & data

Global marketOEMsComponents, EMS, ODM, materials & process equipSolar/Photovoltaic

- Weekly Market Comments with latest charts

20111007

business outlook global electronics industry€¦ · 28/02/2016 · business outlook global...

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