ecosystem services: dynamics, modeling and valuation

Ecosystem Services:Dynamics, Modeling and

Valuation

GrowingEconomicSubsystem

RecycledMatter

Energy

Resources

Energy

Resources

SolarEnergy

Waste Heat

"EmptyWorld"

SinkFunctions

SourceFunctions

Finite Global Ecosystem

Labor

Land

EconomicProcess

GoodsandServices

CulturalNorms andPolicy

IndividualUtility/welfare

Consumption(based on fixedpreferences)

Improvement

Education, Training,Research

Building

Investment(decisions about, taxesgovernment spending,education,science andtechnologypolicy, etc., basedon existing propertyrights regimes)

Property rights

Private Public

GNP

Manufacturedcapital

”Empty World" Model of the Economy

Perf

ect

Su

bst

itu

tab

ility

Betw

een

Fact

ors

GrowingEconomic

Subsystem

RecycledMatter

Resources

SolarEnergy

Waste Heat

"FullWorld"

Energy Energy

Resources

FInite Global Ecosystem

SinkFunctions

SourceFunctions

The “Nature” of Goods and Services

Degradation of ecosystem services often causes significant

harm to human well-being

– The total economic value associated with managing ecosystems more sustainably is often higher than the value associated with conversion

– Conversion may still occur because private economic benefits are often greater for the converted system

Human CapitalEconomic

Production

Process

GoodsandServices

EvolvingCulturalNorms andPolicy

Well Being(Individual andCommunity)

Consumption(based on changing,adaptingpreferences)

Education, training,

research.

Building

Investment(decisions about, taxescommunity spending,education, science andtechnology policy, etc., basedon complex propertyrights regimes)

Individual Public

GNP

Wastes

Common

Ecologicalservices/amenities

having, being

- having,- being

negative impacts on all forms of capital

being, doing, relating

Restoration,

ConservationNatural Capital

ManufacturedCapital

having

positive impacts on human capital capacity

doing, relatingComplex propertyrights regimes

SolarEnergy

SocialCapital

Lim

ited

Su

bst

ituta

bili

tyB

etw

ee

n C

ap

ital F

orm

s

“Full World” Model of the Ecological Economic System

Waste heat

Institutional

rules, norms, etc.

Materially closed earth system

From: Costanza, R., J. C. Cumberland, H. E. Daly, R. Goodland, and R. Norgaard. 1997. An Introduction to Ecological Economics. St. Lucie Press, Boca Raton, 275 pp.

HumanNeedsSubsistenceReproductionSecurityAffectionUnderstandingParticipationLeisureSpiritualityCreativityIdentityFreedom

SubjectiveWell-Being(happiness,utility, welfare)for individualsand/or groups

Quality of Life

Opportunitiesto meet humanneeds, now andin the future(Built, Human,Social, andNatural Capitaland time)

PolicyEnvision-ing, evolv-ing socialnorms

HowNeeds

areMet

HowNeed

Fulfillmentis Perceived

Quality of Life (QOL) as the interaction of human needs and the subjective perception of their fulfillment, as mediated by the

opportunities available to meet the needs.

From: Costanza, R., B. Fisher, S. Ali, C. Beer, L. Bond, R. Boumans, N. L. Danigelis, J. Dickinson, C. Elliott, J. Farley, D. E. Gayer, L. MacDonald Glenn, T. Hudspeth, D. Mahoney, L. McCahill, B. McIntosh, B. Reed, S. A. T. Rizvi, D. M. Rizzo, T. Simpatico, and R. Snapp. 2006. Quality of Life: An Approach Integrating Opportunities, Human Needs, and Subjective Well-Being. Ecological Economics (in press).

This is the 2nd most cited article in the last 10 years in the Ecology/Environment area according to the ISI Web of Science.

NATURE |VOL 387 | 15 MAY 1997 253

article

The value of the world’s ecosystemservices and natural capitalRobert Costanza*†, Ralph d’Arge‡, Rudolf de Groot§, Stephen Farberk, Monica Grasso†, Bruce Hannon¶,Karin Limburg#I, Shahid Naeem**, Robert V. O’Neill††, Jose Paruelo‡‡, Robert G. Raskin§§, Paul Suttonkk& Marjan van den Belt¶¶* Center for Environmental and Estuarine Studies, Zoology Department, and † Insitute for Ecological Economics, University of Maryland, Box 38, Solomons,Maryland 20688, USA‡ Economics Department (emeritus), University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming 82070, USA§ Center for Environment and Climate Studies, Wageningen Agricultural University, PO Box 9101, 6700 HB Wageninengen, The NetherlandskGraduate School of Public and International Affairs, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15260, USA¶ Geography Department and NCSA, University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois 61801, USA# Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, New York, USA** Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St Paul, Minnesota 55108, USA†† Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831, USA‡‡ Department of Ecology, Faculty of Agronomy, University of Buenos Aires, Av. San Martin 4453, 1417 Buenos Aires, Argentina§§ Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California 91109, USAkkNational Center for Geographic Information and Analysis, Department of Geography, University of California at Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California 93106,USA¶¶ Ecological Economics Research and Applications Inc., PO Box 1589, Solomons, Maryland 20688, USA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The services of ecological systems and the natural capital stocksthat produce them are critical to the functioning of theEarth’s life-support system. They contribute to human welfare, both directly and indirectly, and therefore representpart of the total economic value of the planet.We have estimated the current economic value of 17 ecosystem servicesfor 16 biomes, based on published studies and a few original calculations. For the entire biosphere, the value (most ofwhich is outside the market) is estimated to be in the range of US$16–54 trillion (1012) per year, with an average ofUS$33trillion per year. Because of the nature of the uncertainties, thismust be considered a minimum estimate. Globalgross national product total is around US$18 trillion per year.

Focus: Consequences of Ecosystem Change for Human Well-being

Tools for Analyses

GUMBO (Global Unified Model of the BiOsphere)

From: Boumans, R., R. Costanza, J. Farley, M. A. Wilson, R. Portela, J. Rotmans, F. Villa, and M. Grasso. 2002. Modeling the Dynamics of the Integrated Earth System and the Value of Global Ecosystem Services Using the GUMBO Model. Ecological Economics 41: 529-560

Atmosphere

Anthropo-sphere

EcosystemServices

HumanImpacts

Natural Capital Human-madeCapital(includes Built CapitalHuman Capital,and Social Capital

SolarEnergy

Hydrosphere

Lithosphere

Biosphere

11 Biomes

GUMBO

0

1

2

3

4Atmosphere

Water Cycle

Land - Soil

Demographic

Political

Development

Cultural-Values

Economics

Landuse change

Industry - Pollution

Energy

Agriculture

Freshwater

Biogeochemistry

Natural Systems

Social SystemsHuman - Environment Feedback

TARGETS

0

1

2

3

4Atmosphere

Water Cycle

Land - Soil

Demographic

Political

Development

Cultural-Values

Economics

Landuse change


Energy

Agriculture

Freshwater

Biogeochemistry

Natural Systems


DICE

0

1

2

3

4Atmosphere

Water Cycle

Land - Soil

Demographic

Political

Development

Cultural-Values

Economics

Landuse change


Energy

Agriculture

Freshwater

Biogeochemistry

Natural Systems


IFs

0

1

2

3

4Atmosphere

Water Cycle

Land - Soil

Demographic

Political

Development

Cultural-Values

Economics

Landuse change


Energy

Agriculture

Freshwater

Biogeochemistry

Natural Systems


IMAGE-2

0

1

2

3

4Atmosphere

Water Cycle

Land - Soil

Demographic

Political

Development

Cultural-Values

Economics

Landuse change


Energy

Agriculture

Freshwater

Biogeochemistry

Natural Systems


IMAGE

0

1

2

3

4Atmosphere

Water Cycle

Land - Soil

Demographic

Political

Development

Cultural-Values

Economics

Landuse change


Energy

Agriculture

Freshwater

Biogeochemistry

Natural Systems


WORLD3

0

1

2

3

4Atmosphere

Water Cycle

Land - Soil

Demographic

Political

Development

Cultural-Values

Economics

Landuse change


Energy

Agriculture

Freshwater

Biogeochemistry

Natural Systems


MODEL COMPLEXITY0 = Not addressed in model.1 = Exogenous input to model.2 = Endogenous w/o feedback in model3 = Endogenous w/ feedback (mid-complexity)4 = Endogenous w/ feedback (very complex)

DEGREE OF HISTORIC CALIBRATIONLow High

Amoeba diagram of complexity with which Integrated Global Models (IGMs) capture socioeconomic systems, natural systems, and feedbacks (from Costanza, R., R. Leemans, R. Boumans, and E. Gaddis. 2006. Integrated global models. Dahlem Workshop on Integrated History and future of People on Earth (IHOPE). (in press)

Ecosystem functions: The capacity of natural processes and components to provide goods and services that satisfy human needs. (de Groot, 1992)Ecosystem Services: Valued Ecosystem Functions.

R.S. de Groot et al. / Ecological Economics 41 (2002) 393–408

Werners, S.E. and R. Boumans (2005) Simulating global feedbacks between Sea Level Rise, Water for Agriculture and the complex Socio-economic Development of the IPCC Scenarios,

In: Proceedings Environmental Modelling and Software Society Conference: Complexity and Integrated Resources Management (IEMSS2004), Osnabrück, June 2004

20

15

10

5

bill

ion p

eop

le

2050200019501900

Human Population

ObservationsScenarios

Base Case Star Trek (ST) Big Government (BG) Mad Max (MM) Eco-Topia (ET)

500

400

300

200

100trill

. U

S D

olla

rs (

19

98

)

2050200019501900Year

Ecosystem Services Value

10-4

23456

10-32

3456

10-22

3456

welfare

In

dex p

er

trill

. 1

99

8 U

S d

olla

rs

2050200019501900Year

Welfare per GWP

Ecosystem Evaluations

Conventional economic valuation presumes that people have well-formed preferences and enough

information about trade-offs that they can adequately judge their “willingness-to-pay.”

These assumptions do not hold for many ecosystem services.

Therefore we must:

• (1) inform people’s preferences as demonstrated by DeGroot et al. Costanza et al.;

• (2) allow groups to discuss the issues and “construct” their preferences in development under ARIES, TNC InVest and the ESR (Corporate Ecosystem Services Review, developed by the World Resource Institute

or

• (3) use other techniques that do not rely on preferences to estimate the contribution to human welfare of ecosystem services (i.e. using the models developed to directly infer marginal contributions to welfare). The MIMES approach.

Ecological Economics 41 (2002) 393–408 SPECIAL ISSUE:

A typology for the classification, description and valuation of ecosystem functions, goods and services

Rudolf S. de Groot, Matthew A. Wilson, Roelof M.J. Boumans

Value Typology

Existing & Emerging Tools

• ARIES (Assessment and Research Infrastructure for Ecosystem Services), which is under development by the University of Vermont’s Ecoinformatics Collaboratory (within the Gund Institute for Ecological Economics), Conservation International, Earth Economics, as well as with collaboration from experts at Wageningen University. An initial online version will be launched in 2008.

• ESR (Corporate Ecosystem Services Review), which was launched in March 2008 by the World Resources Institute (WRI), the Meridian Institute, and the World Business Council on Sustainable Development (WBCSD).

• InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs), which is in development by The Natural Capital Project—a joint venture among Stanford University’s Woods Institute for the Environment, The Nature Conservancy, and World Wildlife Fund—with the goal of issuing a manual in the Summer / Fall 2008 and software in Fall / Winter 2008.

• MIMES (Multiscale Integrated Models of Ecosystem Services), which is currently available in an early version (“beta plus”) from the University of Vermont’s Gund Institute for Ecological Economics.

•

http://esd.uvm.edu/http:/esd.uvm.edu/

https://mail.bsr.org/exchweb/bin/redir.asp?URL=http://www.conservation.org/

https://mail.bsr.org/exchweb/bin/redir.asp?URL=http://www.eartheconomics.org/

http://www.wri.org/project/ecosystem-services-review

http://www.naturalcapitalproject.org/InVEST.html



http://www.uvm.edu/giee/mimes/



Ecosystem Services and Land Cover Types

The Rapid Accessment Valuation Tool (RAV)

Info on the Benefit transfer Method

• http://www.ecosystemvaluation.org/

1 Not every forest provides ecosystem services at the same rate

2 Ecosystem service values are specific in time and space

• Problems with the Benefits Transfer Method

Ecosystem Services classified according to spatial characteristicsOmni-directional, Global (does not depend on proximity)

Carbon sequestration (NPP)Carbon storage Existence of “nature”

Omni-directional, Local (depends on proximity)Storm protectionWaste treatment Pollination

Directional flow related: flow from point of production to point of useWater supplyWater regulation/flood protectionNutrient regulationSediment regulation

In situ (point of use)Rangeland for livestockNitrogen mineralization for ag. productionSoil formationRaw materialsNon-timber forest products

User movement flow related: flow of people to unique natural featuresAesthetic/recreation potential

Innovative, online dynamic modeling and mapping tools for ecosystem services

analysis at multiple scales (2013)

Dynamic Modeling and Mapping Tool

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

ForestNative

grasslandHeadwater

wetlandRiparian

forestVegetatedbuffer strip

Rip Rapslope Row crop Grass seed Urban

Nutrient removal

Temperature regulation

Carbon Sequestration

Habitat

Flood protection

Food & Goods

MIMES Objectives / Goals

• Develop a sophisticated and transferable system to elucidate dynamics of ecosystem services. – Develop a dynamic spatial model – Collect data

– Provide a user interface • Understand the link between ecosystem

services and human welfare– Develop valuation protocols

• Forecast changes in ecosystem functions and values under various management scenarios.– Model scenario development

• Outcome 1. a suite of dynamic ecological economic computer models specifically aimed at integrating our understanding of ecosystem functioning, ecosystem services, and human well-being across a range of spatial scales

• Outcome 2. developed and applied new valuation techniques adapted to the public goods nature of most ecosystem services and integrated with the modeling work.

LocationsBiosphere

Earth Surfaces

NutrientCycling

Hydrosphere Lithosphere Atmosphere

Anthroposphere

Cultures

Biodiversity

EcosystemServices

Water by

Reservoir

Geological Carbon

Ores

Earth Energy

Gasses

ExchangesBetweenLocations

Social Capital

Human Capital

Economie

MIMES organization and Interaction Matrix

Spatially explicit functional modeling

Economics Sectors

Final demand

GovernmentInvestments

InvestedCapital

ProductionEfficiency

PriceInventories

Economic SectorsFossil Energy

Sector dependencies

Finaldemands

Government Investments

ProductionTax

Research

EcosystemServices

Oceans

Ecosystems (% Area)

Croplands Wetlands

Urban

Forests

Tundra

1990 economic production in $ PPP per country

Agriculture

Households

Tourism

Transportation

Fisheries

Research

Ecosystem Service (index)

Climate Regulation

Biological Regulation

Natural Hazard Mitigation

Cultural Heritage

Genetic Information

Inorganic Resources

Surface water output

Ecosystem Services Provided

The Albemaro Pemleco Watershed

Ecological Research ProgramCore Science at Systems Level

Biodiversity

surface waterSWAT

Geological Carbon

Ores

Earth Energy

GassesMARKAL

CMAQ

Social Capital

Human Capital

Location12 Midwest States

Anthroposphere

Atmosphere

Biosphere

LithosphereHydrosphere

Ecosystem Services

ReVAeconomic vitalityclimate regulation

water qualitywater quantityhuman health quality of lifebiodiversityrecreation

Nutrient CyclingSWAT

nitrogensedimentAtrazinecarbon

phosphorus

Earth SurfacesNLCD and CDL

water, forest, wetland,amended cropland,

urban

river channel

groundwater

Cultures

EconomyFAPRI

US WetlandsBiosphere

Earth Surfaces

Nutrient CyclingCENTURY

C, N, P


Anthroposphere

Cultures

BiodiversityWaterfowl in MS

Vector-borne disease

EcosystemServices

Carbon sequestrationWater quality/quantityFlood/storm protection

Wildlife habitatFisheries supportHuman well-being

Water CyclingKINEROS2-OPUS2

SWATProbabilistic storm

surge

Geological Carbon

Ores

Earth EnergyAtm. forcing

Gasses

Social Capital

Human Capital

Economy

Location

Biosphere

Earth Surfaces

NutrientCycling


Anthroposphere

Cultures

Biodiversity

EcosystemServices

Water by Reservoir Geological Carbon

Ores

Earth Energy

GassesCMAQ

H20, N, Hg

Social Capital

Human Capital

Economy

BASS

water cleansingprimary productivity fish community compositionfish whole body conc. (Hg) water quantity

Habitat Suitability

SWAT N,P, Hg, Pesticides

GFLOW

WASP

LocationCoastal Carolinas*

Biosphere

Earth SurfacesReef, algae, wetland, forest,

urban, agriculture

Nutrient CyclingNitrogenCaCO3

Hydrosphere LithosphereAtmosphere

Anthroposphere

Cultures

Biodiversity

EcosystemServices

Shoreline protection

FishingTourism

Biodiversity

Social Capital

Human Capital

Economy

LDI indexStatistical models

Coastal protection indexStatistical modelsSORTIE

WRI valuation methods

Geological Carbon

Ores

Earth EnergyClimate change

SST, solar radiation

GasesClimate change

CO2

Open water

Groundwater

Ocean circulationStorm frequency

Surface water

Benthic substrate

LocationCoral Reefs

Biosphere

Earth Surfaceswater, forest, wetlands,

agriculture, urban

NutrientCycling

C, N, P, Hg

Hydrosphere

Anthroposphere

Cultures

Biodiversity

EcosystemServiceswater supplywater quality

CO2 sequestration flood protection

food and fiber productionhabitat and biodiversity

recreationnitrogen regulation

Water by

Reservoir

Lithosphere

Geological Carbon

Ores

Atmosphere

Earth Energy

GassesO3

Social Capital

Human Capital

Economy

LocationTampa Bay

Biosphere

Earth SurfacesForests, WetlandsAgriculture, Urban

NutrientCyclingGT MELCentury

SPARROWN, C, Hg


Anthroposphere

Cultures

BiodiversityPATCH

EcosystemServicesWater Supply

Flood ProtectionCO2 SequestrationNitrogen ControlFood and Fiber

HabitatBiodiversity

Sense of Place

Water GA Tech Model

CLIGENKINEROS

MODFLOW

Geological Carbon

Ores

Earth Energy

Gasses

Social Capital

Human Capital

Economy

LocationWillamette Basin

ecosystem services: dynamics, modeling and valuation

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