dsb briefing to af energy forum mar 08 v2

8/14/2019 DSB Briefing to AF Energy Forum Mar 08 v2

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2008 DSB Task Force on DoD Energy Strategy1

REPORT

OF THE

DEFENSE SCIENCE BOARDTASK FORCE ON

DOD ENERGY STRATEGY

Mr. Chris DiPettoTask Force Co-Executive Secretary


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Key Task Force Membership

Study Co-Chairmen Dr James Schlesinger Gen Michael Carns, USAF Ret

Executive Secretaries Mr Chris DiPetto ODUSD (A&T) Mr Jack Taylor ODUSD (S&T)

Policy Panel Chairman Mr James Woolsey, BAH

Platform Panel Co-Chairs ADM Greg Johnson, USN GEN Greg Martin, USAF

Facilities Panel Chairman VADM Al Konetzni, USN

R&D Panel Co-Chairs Dr Ed Reedy, GTRI Dr Jeff Tester, MIT


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2008 DSB Energy Task Force

Identify opportunities to reduce fuel demandby deployed forces and assess cost,operational and force structure effects

Identify opportunities to deploy renewableand alternative energy sources for facilitiesand deployed forces

Identify institutional barriers to achieving thistransition


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DSB Energy Strategy Task Force

DesiredDoD Strategic Outcomes Assured power for critical DOD capabilities

Produce more warfighting performance for less energy


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DoD Energy Observations

Electricity (Facilities) Largest US user of electricity (~ $2B price tag.*)

DoD draws power from a fragile and vulnerable grid

Drives all critical C4ISR and > 500 CONUS installations

Petroleum (Tactical Systems) CONUS sources of DoD fuel for readiness, training & deployment

Overseas sources sustain deployed DoD operations

DoD uses ~1.8% of US totalno near-term alternative ~$10B * Mobility (ships, planes, vehicles) consume 74% of DoDs energy use

Jet fuels: DoD is 17% of the US market; transports consume 53% of it

Electricity (Tactical Systems) FOB electricity produced by gen-sets using JP8, creating fuel burden

Soldier systems require troops to haul batteries, impedingeffectiveness

* FY06 DoD Energy Report to Congress


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Problem with Electricity - Resilience

DoD installations rely almost exclusively on outside-the-fence commercial power Must ensure key functions are performed during extended power

loss

Temporary backup power is available for some critical mission

activities

The grid is remarkably fragile and an attractive target Control systems are continuously probed

Single point failures

Resilience: ability to resist failure and rapidly recover from

breakdowns if they occur


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Remedies for Facilities Electricity

Demand Side Management Aggressive efficiency improvements

Procurement policies

MILCON / O&M energy standards

Supply Side Options

On- or Near-Site Generation Islanding and Distributed Generation

Potential Sources Renewables (e.g, wind, solar geothermal)

Conventional (natural gas, nuclear, coal)

Grid Reliability Improvements Outside DoD direct control

Requires FERC, PUC, Industry concurrence



Problem with Petroleum - Endurance

Energy logistics is a significant operational and financial burden

70% of warfighting logistics by weight is fuel

Protecting fuel convoys is dangerous business

Diverts combat forces to force protection role

Creates operational vulnerabilities and constrains force movement

Big payoffs for reduced fuel demand Reductions in combat use compounds through logistics structure

Enables force allocation from tail to tooth

Lower consumption damps budget effects of price volatility

Reduces vulnerability of combat forces to supply chain disruption

Endurance: ability to sustain operations for an extended time

without support or replenishment



Mandate descriptions of how materiel solutions fuel

demand impacts operation capability in an agreed set ofDPS to frame the efficiency/effectiveness trades

Develop a scalable methodology for the Energy KPP forall Requirements (CJCSI 3170)

Relevant Processes

Acquisition

Get delivered fuel (logistics) and its related variables built into everyService & Joint campaign model, wargame, force planning conferenceand scenario build

Set targets for reducing the fuel delivery tail within the SSSP/ISPs

Evolve beyond single program reviews considerprograms/platfoms fuel demand within scenario-based futureforce packages

Require SAEs-PEOs-PMs to speak on portfolio of capabilitiesand the programs role & support demands at milestone reviews

JCIDS

Service & JointForce Planning



Five Recommendations

1. Implement Energy KPP (requirements) and FullyBurdened Cost of Fuel (acquisition)

2. Reduce risk of losing critical missions at installationsby developing resilience as installation design criteria

3. Establish DoD-wide strategic plan with metrics,responsibility and accountability

4. Invest in new energy technologies to a levelcommensurate to their value to the Department

5. Change operational procedures to reduce energydemand policies and incentives



Backup Slides



Risk for Grid Outages

1. Overload

Far less margin

2003 cascading power failure

2. Natural Disasters

3. Deliberate Attack easy target Not designed to withstand a coordinated attack

Little stockpiling of critical backup hardware

Cyber attempted SCADA attacks

4. Fuel Supply interruptions

Grid is brittle, centralized, capacity-strained, and largely

unprotected from physical attack.



Problem with Electricity ResilienceContinued

Mission critical loads dependent on grid and backup gen-sets Command & Control, Communications & Computers (C4)

Situational Awareness Intelligence, Surveillance &Reconnaissance (ISR) systems and capabilities

Military strategic offense and defense capabilities strategicdetection and assessment, decision making and assuredconnectivity to offense and defense strategic weapons systems

Grid built for efficiency, not resilience; reserve capacity greatly

reduced since de-regulation Duration and reliability of gen-set inconsistent with risk of long

duration grid outage and criticality of loads



Remedies for Facilities Electricity

Demand Side Management Aggressive efficiency improvements Technically feasible

Economically preferable over facility life cycle

Enabler for renewable sources to meet backup and primary powerrequirements

Significant DoD energy cost savings and risk reduction can berealized by adding risk of disruption metric to existing energyconsumption targets in DoD facility contract specifications

Over FY08 - FY13, DoD planning to spend ~$60B for new construction

and ~$44B for maintenance & renovation Construction criteria and maintenance practices key drivers in future

energy demand



Problems with Petroleum - Endurance(Tactical systems)

Aircraft fuel use (67% of total)

60% of airlift and tanker aircraft use designs over a half century old

Vertical lift fleet uses design configuration between a third and half century old

Technologies exist and are available now to improve large aircraft flight efficiency by afactor of 2 and vertical lift efficiencies manyfold

Efficiency enhances range, endurance, payload and reduces logistics

In the air refueling case, fully burdened cost of fuel is several-fold the purchase cost

Land Forces Fuel Use

Weightis the primary driver of fuel consumptionup to 75% of the energy

Even in some land system cases, fully burdened cost of fuel is at least several-foldgreater than purchase cost (can be an order of magnitude greater in extreme cases)

Fuel efficiency at point of use converts lots of soldiers from logistics and supplyprotection into combat forces FCS warning light is blinking



Problems with Petroleum - Endurance(Soldiers and FOBs)

Generators & Batteries Land forces are also large consumers of electricity, primarily

portable

Generators are ubiquitous in combat areas, consume largeamounts of fuel, and require substantial resources

Batteries are critical to the soldier, and ~15-20% of total weightof the troopers pack

Technology thrust needed to reduce weight, size and numbersof generators and batteries

Technologies and logistics behavior are available now to

substantially improve FOB fuel use for hotel load and landvehicles


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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

Year

FuelC

onsumptionperSoldier[gal/soldier/day]

1944

Korean War

Vietnam War

Iraq War

DesertStorm

1.8 million gallons

1,075,681 soldiers Future Wars

20044.1 million gallons150,000 soldiers

WW I

CivilWar

Region ofProjected FuelConsumption

Best Case

Worst Case

Military Fuel Consumption TrendsTechnological advances, especially in C4ISR, futuredirected energy weapons, and unmanned vehicles,

are driving fuel consumption almost exponentially.
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DoD Energy Consumption- FY06 Compared to FY05 -

MarineDiesel

Buildings25%

Mobility(aircraft, ships,vehicles)

73%

Excluded1.5%

Other0.2%

Coal2%Steam

1%AutoGas

1%

Electricity12%

FuelOil3%

NaturalGas 8%

Jet Fuel52%

12%

FY06 Total Energy Cost: $13.6BTotal BTUs: 832.5 TStandard price per barrel: $91.52 (avg)

FY06 Consumption

MarineDiesel

Buildings22%

Mobility(aircraft, ships,vehicles)

74%

Industrial

3%

Exempt

1%

Other0.8%

Coal1.6%Steam

1%AutoGas

0.7%

Electricity

11%

FuelOil3%

NaturalGas 8%

Jet Fuel58%

Auto Diesel 2.3%

13%

FY05 Consumption

FY05 Total Energy Cost: $10.9BTotal BTUs: 919.3 trillionStandard price per barrel: $61.88 (avg) *2006 DoD Energy Report

Auto Diesel 8%

dsb briefing to af energy forum mar 08 v2

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