Decision Support for Urban Environmental Planning

Vishal K. Mehta, Ph.D.Stockholm Environment Institute

vishal.mehta@sei-us.org www.sei-international.orgwww.sei-us.org

Dec 29, 20116th International Public Policy and Management ConferenceIIM-Bangalore, India

Acknowledgements: M.Sekhar, D.Malghan, Arghyam

OUTLINE

I. Decision Support in PlanningNeed for Decision Support

Examples

II. Barriers to effective decision SupportKnowledge Gaps

III. Ongoing Research

Transport

Energy

Water

Infrastructure

Landuse

Security

1. Need for Decision Support in Urban Planning

Comprehensive and Integrated Urban Planning

THE CHALLENGE

Decisions made across multiple sectors In multiple dimensionsby multiple actors/agencies

1. Need for Decision Support in Urban Planning

LARGE UNCERTAINTIES

Uncertainty

Impact

Drivers

Critical uncertainties

1. Need for Decision Support in Urban Planning

RAPID URBANIZATION -> CHANGING CITY Bangalore, India:

YearPopulation (m)

Density (per sq km)

Built-up area % urban footprint

1971 1.65 9,465 20%

1981 2.92 7,990 26%

1991 4.13 9,997 39%

2001 5.1 11,545 69%

2011 ~9 na na

Sources: Census; Iyer et al (2007)

• In 60 yrs, India’s urban population growth rate twice that of overall population

• Urban poor ~2 5% of urban population

• 20 m/100m lack safe water/sanitation

I. Role of Scenario-based Risk assessment

Scenario-Based Risk Assessment considers:

System performance over all plausible conditions, moves away from traditional “design event” approach

Explicitly recognizes that uncertainty (lack of quantified probabilities) exists in the process and must be addressed through scenario analysis

Relies upon two way communication with stakeholders to select the level of risk they can tolerate with consideration of tradeoffs of multidimensional costs vs safety

Results in Robust Decisions – adaptation strategies that are least likely to fail

I Examples of DST: Urban Air pollution (Meerfert, Denmark)

Jensen et al., 2001. A Danish decision-support GIS tool for management of urban air quality and human exposures. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 6, 229-241.

Motivation: Larsen et al (1997) found that mortality from traffic-related air pollution as high as that from accidents

I Examples of DST: Urban Air pollution (Meerfert, Denmark)

I Examples of DST: Urban Air pollution (Meerfert, Denmark)

Elements of Air Pollution

DSS

Air Quality Monitoring

Emissions inventory

Air Quality &Exposure mapping

Assessment of abatement

measures

Information to the public

Forecasts

Linking Environmental Quality to Public Health is key to public awareness &behavioral change, and should be an urban governance mandate

I Examples of DST: Broad St Cholera Outbreak, London 1854

Linking Environmental Quality to Public Health :

the beginnings of epidemiologyDr. John Snow mappedCholera outbreak to a single contaminated pump

I Examples of DST: Low-carbon development

https://www.eureapa.net/ EUREAPAConsumption-based footprint of 45 countries, 57 sectors

I Examples of DST: Low-carbon development pathways

I Examples of DST: Low-carbon development

https://eureapa.stage.isotoma.com/explore/

I. Examples of DST: Water Supply/Water Resources Management

• Focus on increasing extraction and supply -> No comparative cost-benefit analysis of various options (scenarios)-> Examples:

BangaloreChennai

Delhi

UTILITY PERFORMANCE• No city has 24/7 water supply• Poor often pay more for water• High leakage rates (20-60%)

• Big cities: surface water supply from afar• Small towns: groundwater

• Electricity is >30% of costs• Inability to recover costs

Projects Year

Installed

Capacity (MLD)

Present Supply (MLD)

Arkavathy (TG Halli) 1933 149 60

Cauvery Stage I 1974 135 135

Cauvery Stage II 1983 135 135

Cauvery Stage III 1993 270 300

Cauvery Stage IV, Phase – I 2002 270 270

Total Supply 959 900

Will agriculturecompete for shared water supplies or become a potential source?Agricultural production models with water rights database

Will the hydrology change?Hydrology models with land use projections

Will groundwater remain viable?Groundwater flow and transport models

Will retail customers practice conservation?Demand side models

How much will new residential construction increase demand?Regional economic models

Will this fish be listed for protection?Habitat and species lifecycle models with Ecosystem databases

 

Can we tap into a new supply?River hydraulic and contaminant transport models with water treatment models

Will industrial discharges change?Regulatory and emerging technology analysis with industry forecast models

Will hydropower management change in response to shifts in the market?Energy policy analysis with energy sector forecast models

Will recreation remain compatible with future operations?Recreational use surveys with future projections

Note: Image adapted with permission from the City of Portland, Oregon Water Bureau

How will climate change?Climate models

324643

I Examples of DST: Integrated Water Resources Management

Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) System ( www.weap21.org ) A generalized water resources software that provides flexible user-friendly interface to build custom applications

A Decision Support Tool for Integrated, Comprehensive, Cross- Scale Water Management Planning

Integrated : Hydrology with Priority-based Demand Allocation

Comprehensive: Can include Equity, Environmental constraints, Financial Aspects, Water quality, Groundwater

Cross-Scale: From a single house to a city to a riverbasinIdeal for ”What-if” scenario investigations for PLANNING and POLICY Analysis

Management scenariosClimate change impacts

I. Example: Water Supply - Lake Victoria townsLake Victoria region

Masaka Bukoba Kisii

Population 70,000 69,000 200,000

Streamflow(106 m3)

6.9 - -

Water produced (106 m3)

2.35 0.9

Demand coverage 80% 60% <50%

Operating Costs 496,000 USD 465,000 USD 726,000 USD

Revenues 768,000 USD 470,000 USD 383,000 USD

Key issues Waterworks capacity, population growth

Unaccounted Water (UAW)~50%, high electricity costs

Revenue<<CostsVery low coverage UAW~50%, high electriciity costs

Scenarios Investigated

Infrastructure Increased capacity Increased capacity, reduced EAW

Increased capacity, reduced EAW

Demand 2% population growth and climate-related demand model

4% population growth

4% population growth

Climate CCSM,Reduced rainfall

None None

(1) To examine how climate, demography and infrastructure impacts water utility performance in 3 east African towns

(2) To develop water resources management tools that integrate above aspects in a single platform

I. Example: Water Supply - Lake Victoria towns

NABAJUZI watershed, Masaka

Results from Masaka, Uganda

I. Example: Water Supply - Lake Victoria towns

“…Hydrologic integration is necessary to evaluate the water availability and impacts side of the water supply problem. Collection of the hydroclimatic data needed in order to do the same, should be a priority for utilities and agencies in the LV region…”

II Barriers to Effective Decision Support

Knowledge Gaps

Institutional

Financial

Technical

Inclusion

Communication

Barriers

II Barriers to Effective Decision SupportCrucial Knowledge Gaps

• Hydrology is rarely understood -> biophysical limits to water availability

What is the natural water balance ?

• Of both far-off source waters, of local water sources

Ex: The resolution of groundwater monitoring (1 per 40-50 km2) is not enough for highly variable urban landscapes

II Barriers to Effective Decision Support

Crucial Knowledge Gaps

• Changed hydrology of urban environments -> (biophysical impacts)

What is the impacted water balance?

• E.g. Elevated, and contaminated water tables (Seoul, Mulbagal, Bangalore)

Sekhar, M. and Kumar, M.S.M. 2009. “Geo-hydrological studies along the Metro Rail Alignment in Bangalore

BWSSB supplies 900 MLD into the city from surface water that is not local to Bangalore

II Barriers to Effective Decision Support

Crucial Knowledge Gaps

• Extraction and Demand from each source remains unknown

• Demand drivers for above across the social-economic spectrum

• E.g. tankers, pvt borewells, local water bodies

• How many wells? How much being pumped out? How much returning and where?

• E.g. Chennai: 22-66% of water demand met by private wells

II Barriers to Effective Decision Support

Streamflow~ 10%

Surface watershed

Rain 100%

AET ~ 80%

Groundwater Aquifer

Percolation (Rainfall Recharge)~ 10%

Net Groundwater discharge~ 10%

Aim: Impacts of population growth on GW depths; RWH, WWT, investment decisions

What can we do the in the meantime?

Example: Mulbagal

With Arghyam, IISc

II Barriers to Effective Decision SupportWhat else can we do in the meantime?Room for innovation?• Public participation in data collection (e.g. OpenStreetMaps)• Crowdsourcing (e.g. Thailand flood)• Sensor Networks

http://de21.digitalasia.chubu.ac.jp/floodmap/

III. Current Research Activity in Bangalore

Key research questions:

1. What is the city-wide pattern of (water) resource availability?

2. What is the geographic distribution of (water) consumption?

3. What are the drivers that explain the pattern of water consumption observed?

4. What projections can we make for water demand and supply, as well as feedbacks to sources into the future?

5. What are the links and feedbacks to the biophysical system

III. Current Research Activity in BangaloreResearch Activities and Methods ..

1. Household Water consumption surveyMental model for drivers of Quantity, source-mix

III. Current Research Activity in Bangalore

Groundwater –surface water models, mass balances

Research Activities and Methods…

2. Understanding the biophysical resource: groundwater models, mass balances

3. Optimal monitoring density in urban environments Adaptive sampling, Bayesian data fusion

III. Current Research Activity in Bangalore

Geospatial web tools

Research Activities and Methods …

4. Formal participatory planning exercises5. Urban Metabolic MappingGeospatial web-based planning platform

An open-source application for

- Information Communication- Web-based scenario-planning

http://www.seimapping.org/bump/index.phphttp://seilinux.tccs.tufts.edu/~douglas/bump/index.php

Summary

1. Decision Support Tools can be very valuable for comprehensive urban and

regional planning

2. These tools already exist; or can be built with scientific input

3. Knowledge gaps limit the full potential of DST to be achieved – but progress

can be made in parallel

4. Intensive data-driven approaches will be necessary to fill knowledge gaps

5. Urgent need for• Intensive environmental quality monitoring• Linkage between environmental quality and public health• Effective public participation and communication• Formal scenario-based planning for the future

THANK YOU !

Extras

I. Some WEAP examples

Water Systems PlanningSmall Reservoirs Project, Ghana/BrazilCalifornia Water Plan, California, USAGuadiana River, SpainTransboundary Water PolicyOkavango River, Angola/Namibia/BotswanaLower Rio Grande, USA/MexicoMekong River, Thailand/Cambodia/Vietnam/LaosJordan River, Syria/Israel/JordanClimate Change StudiesSacramento and San Joaquin River Basins, California, USAMassachusetts Water Resources Authority, Massachusetts, USAYemen Second National CommunicationMali Second National CommunicationEcological FlowsConnecticut Department of Environmental ProtectionTown of Scituate, Massachusetts, USAWater Utility DSS ApplicationPortland, Oregon; Austin, Texas; Philadelphia, PennsylvaniaTowns in East Africa; Mulbagal, India.

Intuitive GIS-based graphical interface

GIS Tool

Model Building

Graphs &

Maps

Scenario

Building

WEAP Network Schematic

Urban Water examples > Austin, Texas

Aim: Cost-effectiveness of conservation and reuse strategies vs increasing water treatment capacity

Urban water examples>Portland, Oregon

Aim: conjuctive use of SW and GW vs. building new reservoir