covid-19 hospitalizations in new mexico - cv …...1190 s. st. francis drive • santa fe, nm 87505...

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic and Modeling

UpdateJune 9, 2020


Prevalence: COVID-19 cases per 100,000 by U.S. states

As of June 9, 2020


Prevalence Rate: Number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population

Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 6.07.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.

1896.3

89.6237.0

66.2206.4

365.8

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

May 31, 2020

2132.6

99.5253.9

77.5

340.3425.4

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

June 7, 2020


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

03/0

9/20

03/1

1/20

03/1

3/20

03/1

5/20

03/1

7/20

03/1

9/20

03/2

1/20

03/2

3/20

03/2

5/20

03/2

7/20

03/2

9/20

03/3

1/20

04/0

2/20

04/0

4/20

04/0

6/20

04/0

8/20

04/1

0/20

04/1

2/20

04/1

4/20

04/1

6/20

04/1

8/20

04/2

0/20

04/2

2/20

04/2

4/20

04/2

6/20

04/2

8/20

04/3

0/20

05/0

2/20

05/0

4/20

05/0

6/20

05/0

8/20

05/1

0/20

05/1

2/20

05/1

4/20

05/1

6/20

05/1

8/20

05/2

0/20

05/2

2/20

05/2

4/20

05/2

6/20

05/2

8/20

05/3

0/20

06/0

1/20

06/0

3/20

06/0

5/20

06/0

7/20

New Mexico COVID-19 Cases by Date of Specimen Collection – 6/9/20

Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.


Northeast R_effective1.10 ↑

Central R_effective1.05 ↓

Southeast R_effective 1.13 ↓

SouthwestR_effective 1.09 ↓

NorthwestR_effective 1.08 ↓ Low Level Endemic

1-1.1

Approaching Low Level Endemic1.11-1.15

Requiring further mitigation >1.15

Key

As of May 26, 2020

Due to a technical issue, regional R-effective measures have not been updated for this week.


Projected Doubling Timeby Health Region, New Mexico

Metro, 10.9

Northeast, 14.14

Northwest, 8.3

Southeast, 14.09

Southwest, 11.2

New Mexico, 9.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

165/

10/2

020

5/11

/202

05/

12/2

020

5/13

/202

05/

14/2

020

5/15

/202

05/

16/2

020

5/17

/202

05/

18/2

020

5/19

/202

05/

20/2

020

5/21

/202

05/

22/2

020

5/23

/202

05/

24/2

020

5/25

/202

05/

26/2

020

5/27

/202

05/

28/2

020

5/29

/202

05/

30/2

020

5/31

/202

06/

1/20

206/

2/20

206/

3/20

206/

4/20

20

Num

ber o

f Day

s fo

r Cas

e Co

unt t

o Do

uble

Projected Doubling Time Based on Date of Test Specimen Collection and Cumulative Average Rate of Increase.Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 6.9.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.


In the past week, 7-day rolling average of reported case rates has increased in the Southwest and Northwest.

7-day rolling average of reported cases per 100,000 population by date and region

Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – June 8, 2020.


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

20003

/09/

2003

/11/

2003

/13/

2003

/15/

2003

/17/

2003

/19/

2003

/21/

2003

/23/

2003

/25/

2003

/27/

2003

/29/

2003

/31/

2004

/02/

2004

/04/

2004

/06/

2004

/08/

2004

/10/

2004

/12/

2004

/14/

2004

/16/

2004

/18/

2004

/20/

2004

/22/

2004

/24/

2004

/26/

2004

/28/

2004

/30/

2005

/02/

2005

/04/

2005

/06/

2005

/08/

2005

/10/

2005

/12/

2005

/14/

2005

/16/

2005

/18/

2005

/20/

2005

/22/

2005

/24/

2005

/26/

2005

/28/

2005

/30/

2006

/01/

2006

/03/

2006

/05/

2006

/07/

20

Northwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average –June 9, 2020



0

50

100

150

200

250

03/0

9/20

03/1

1/20

03/1

3/20

03/1

5/20

03/1

7/20

03/1

9/20

03/2

1/20

03/2

3/20

03/2

5/20

03/2

7/20

03/2

9/20

03/3

1/20

04/0

2/20

04/0

4/20

04/0

6/20

04/0

8/20

04/1

0/20

04/1

2/20

04/1

4/20

04/1

6/20

04/1

8/20

04/2

0/20

04/2

2/20

04/2

4/20

04/2

6/20

04/2

8/20

04/3

0/20

05/0

2/20

05/0

4/20

05/0

6/20

05/0

8/20

05/1

0/20

05/1

2/20

05/1

4/20

05/1

6/20

05/1

8/20

05/2

0/20

05/2

2/20

05/2

4/20

05/2

6/20

05/2

8/20

05/3

0/20

06/0

1/20

06/0

3/20

06/0

5/20

06/0

7/20

Southwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average –June 9, 2020



0

50

100

150

200

25003

/09/

2003

/11/

2003

/13/

2003

/15/

2003

/17/

2003

/19/

2003

/21/

2003

/23/

2003

/25/

2003

/27/

2003

/29/

2003

/31/

2004

/02/

2004

/04/

2004

/06/

2004

/08/

2004

/10/

2004

/12/

2004

/14/

2004

/16/

2004

/18/

2004

/20/

2004

/22/

2004

/24/

2004

/26/

2004

/28/

2004

/30/

2005

/02/

2005

/04/

2005

/06/

2005

/08/

2005

/10/

2005

/12/

2005

/14/

2005

/16/

2005

/18/

2005

/20/

2005

/22/

2005

/24/

2005

/26/

2005

/28/

2005

/30/

2006

/01/

2006

/03/

2006

/05/

2006

/07/

20

Southwest Case Count by Collection Date - 6/9/2020

Without Detention Centers Detention Center



Hospitalization Rate: Number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population

Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 6.8.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.

368.4

14.3 26.26.5 18.2

58.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

June 1, 2020408.6

14.6 27.86.8

22.3

64.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

June 8, 2020


COVID-19 hospitalizations and ventilator use

As of June 5, 2020


COVID-19 daily new hospitalizations

As of June 5, 2020

NM-EDSS on 6/5/2020 at 2:17 PM

New hospitalizations during this time may not yet be reported


COVID-19 daily new hospitalizations by Regions

As of June 5, 2020




Metro Region Northwest Region



As of June 5, 2020


Northeast Region Southwest RegionNew hospitalizations during this time may not yet be reported




As of June 5, 2020


Southeast Region



New COVID-19 hospitalizations each weekNM-EDSS on 6/5/2020 at 2:17 PM



Hospitalizations and ventilators seem to have plateaued.

Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – June 8, 2020.


On a county level, most counties have decreasing hospitalizations.

Courtesy of LANL – June 4, 2020.

Hospital Beds + ICU

Date (2/23 – 6/7)


Mortality Rate: Number of COVID-19 deaths per100,000 population

Rates have been age-adjusted to the U.S. 2000 standard population.Source: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 6.7.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.

59.8

0.74.9

0.52.8

15.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest New Mexico

Dea

ths

per 1

00,0

00 P

opul

atio

n (a

ge-a

djus

ted)


1 1 1

2

1 1 1

2

1 1

2

1

4

2

4

5

1

6

3

7 7

4

5

1

5

9 9

7

6 6

9

10

7

5

10

11

14

10

5

8

9

11

13

8 8

11

10

7

8

6

7

5

2

4

6

8

10

7

3

5

4 4

6

9

2

5

4

5

3

1 1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Num

ber o

f Dea

ths

COVID-19 Deaths by Date of Death, New Mexico

10 per. Mov. Avg. (Deaths)

Reporting through 6/8/2020


2

9

19

33

43

6664

57

43

35

27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Num

ber o

f Dea

ths

COVID-19 Deaths by Week of Death, New Mexico

Reporting through 6/6/2020


11.1

42.1

51.5

62.8

69.773.4

68.4

74.4

80.0

88.9

88.9

52.6

42.4

34.9

21.2

26.624.6 23.3

14.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

3/29

- 4/

4

4/5

- 4/1

1

4/12

- 4/

18

4/19

- 4/

25

4/26

- 5/

2

5/3

- 5/9

5/10

- 5/

16

5/17

- 5/

23

5/24

- 5/

30

5/31

- 6/

6

Perc

ent o

f Tot

al N

ew D

eath

s Ea

ch W

eek

Week of Death

New COVID-19 Deaths by Week and Region

Northwest

Northeast

Metro

Southeast

Southwest


11.1

21.1

42.4

55.8

62.1

51.6

63.2

74.4

82.9 81.5

33.3

68.4

30.332.6

24.2

28.1

22.8

16.3

5.77.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

3/29

- 4/

4

4/5

- 4/1

1

4/12

- 4/

18

4/19

- 4/

25

4/26

- 5/

2

5/3

- 5/9

5/10

- 5/

16

5/17

- 5/

23

5/24

- 5/

30

5/31

- 6/

6

Perc

ent o

f Tot

al N

ew D

eath

s Ea

ch W

eek

Week of Death

New COVID-19 Deaths by Week and Race/Ethnicity

AIAN

Asian

Black

Hispanic

White


33.3

57.9

42.4

51.2 53.0 51.6

43.939.5

14.3

7.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

3/29

- 4/

4

4/5

- 4/1

1

4/12

- 4/

18

4/19

- 4/

25

4/26

- 5/

2

5/3

- 5/9

5/10

- 5/

16

5/17

- 5/

23

5/24

- 5/

30

5/31

- 6/

6

Perc

ent o

f Tot

al N

ew D

eath

s Ea

ch W

eek

Week of Death

New COVID-19 Deaths by Week and Long Term Care Residence


Case Fatality Rate: Percentage of COVID-19 cases resulting in death

Rates have been age-adjusted to U.S. COVID-19 cases.Source: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division, reporting through 6.5.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.

7.0%

1.4%

5.9%

2.5% 2.5%

5.9% 5.8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest New Mexico U.S.

Case

Fat

ality

Rat

e (a

ge-a

djus

ted)

New Mexico Health Region


3.2%

4.1%

3.9%

4.5%4.6% 4.6%

4.4%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

Perc

ent o

f Cas

es th

at D

ied

Cumulative Case Fatality


Supplementary Slides


Modeling Assumptions

Variable Measured Value Value as of 6.8.20

R_Effective Actual Measured Daily Value by key county

R_eff=1.07

Positive Test Multiplier Calculated by LANL 4.4

Hospitalization and Mortality Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected

Medical 0.3% ICU 0.3%Vent Rate 69.8% of ICUCrude Case Fatality Rate 4.4%

Length of Stay Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected

Medical 5 daysICU 14 days ICU on Vent 14 days

covid-19 hospitalizations in new mexico - cv …...1190 s. st. francis drive • santa fe, nm 87505...

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