cv modeling - covid-19 hospitalizations in new mexico · 2020. 9. 9. · 1190 s. st. francis drive...
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic and Modeling
UpdateSeptember 8, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
New Mexico has the 36th highest number of cases per 100,000 population in the United States
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 prevalence per 100,000 population
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 9.6.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.
*Excludes cases among inmates in state and federal corrections and detention centers
New cases (Last 7 days) – August 30
5.33.3 4.1
15.0
6.1 6.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
New cases (Last 7 days) – September 6
4.6 3.6 2.9
15.2
6.95.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 9.8.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
New Mexico COVID-19 Cases by Date of Specimen Collection – September 8, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Statewide R-effective has decreased to 0.9.
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – September 8, 2020.
0.9
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Northeast R_effective 0.8 ↓
MetroR_effective 0.6 ↓
Southeast R_effective 0.9 =
SouthwestR_effective 1.0 =
NorthwestR_effective 0.9 ↓
Low Level Endemic <1.0
Approaching Low Level Endemic1.0-1.05
Requiring further mitigation >1.05
Key
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – September 8, 2020.
As of September 1, 2020
Region R-effective 95% Confidence Interval
State 0.9 [0.2, 1.6]
Metro 0.6 [0.0, 1.9]
Northeast 0.8 [0.0, 2.9]
Northwest 0.9 [0.0, 2.6]
Southeast 0.9 [0.0, 1.8]
Southwest 1.0 [0.0, 2.4]
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
All regions have decreasing case counts relative to the past 14 day period.
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – September 8, 2020.
↑ Increasing counts↓ Decreasing case
counts
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 9.8.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Metro Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageSeptember 8, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 9.8.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Northeast Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageSeptember 8, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 9.8.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Northwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageSeptember 8, 2020
Without Detention Centers Detention Center 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Without Detention Centers)
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 9.8.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Southeast Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageSeptember 8, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 9.8.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
Southwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageSeptember 8, 2020
Without Detention Centers Detention Center 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Without Detention Centers)
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
For cases reporting activities, travel and visits to restaurants and breweries may be beginning to increase.
As of September 6, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
As of September 7, 2020
Since about mid-August, there have been ≤ 75 hospitalized cases each day
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Last week, the percentage of hospital admissions of patients who are 35-64 years old increased slightly compared to those who are 65+ years old.
As of September 7, 2020
Hospitalizations may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
2
9
19
33
43
67 67
61
45 46
35 34 33
2124 25 26
5052
27 28 27
21
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Num
ber o
f Dea
ths
COVID-19 Deaths by Week of Death, New Mexico
As of September 6, 2020
Deaths may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Minimal changes in case fatality rates across regions
Note: Age-adjusted case fatality rates are adjusted to the current distribution of U.S. COVID-19 cases on 9/6. https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/index.html#demographicsSource: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division, reporting through 9.6.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
6.2%
2.2%
3.3%
1.4%
2.9%
4.0%
3.0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
NW NE Metro SE SW NM U.S.
Perc
enta
ge
COVID-19 Age-Adjusted* Case Fatality Rate by Region, New Mexico
*Adjusted to U.S. COVID-19 cases on 9/6.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
New Mexico Status Updates
• Case count: Statewide, daily case counts continue to decline.
• Hospitalizations: After a period of recent decline in July, hospitalizations have remained steady.
• Deaths: Deaths are declining.
• Contact tracing: The median time to quarantine for contacts identified last week was approximately 1 day.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Supplementary Slides
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Modeling Assumptions
Variable Measured Value Value as of 9.8.2020
R_Effective Actual Measured Daily Value by key county
R_eff=0.9
Positive Test Multiplier Calculated by LANL 3.4
Hospitalization and Mortality Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected
Medical 0.09% ICU 0.07%Vent Rate 50% of ICUCrude Case Fatality Rate 3.4%
Length of Stay Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected
Medical 5 daysICU 14 days ICU on Vent 14 days