covid-19 hospitalizations in new mexico · 1190 s. st. francis drive • santa fe, nm 87505 •...

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic and Modeling

UpdateJune 23, 2020


Prevalence: COVID-19 cases per 100,000 by U.S. states

As of June 23, 2020


Prevalence Rate: Number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population

Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 6.22.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.

2295.6

108.3270.0

99.7

387.5 462.6

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

June 14, 2020

2409.5

125.3288.1

122.6

468.3 502.7

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

June 22, 2020


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

New Mexico COVID-19 Cases by Date of Specimen Collection – 6/23/20

Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.


Statewide R-effective has increased over the past week.

Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – June 23, 2020.

1.08


Northeast R_effective 1.34 ↑

CentralR_effective 1.03 ↓

Southeast R_effective 1.17 ↑

SouthwestR_effective 1.27 ↑

NorthwestR_effective 0.97 ↑

Low Level Endemic

Approaching Low Level Endemic

Requiring further mitigation

Key (Gating Target: 1.05)

Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – June 23, 2020.

As of June 16, 2020


Daily rate of growth of COVID-19 cases7-day rolling average by region – 6/22/20

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%05

/22/

20

05/2

3/20

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Daily

Gro

wth

Rat

e

Metro

Northeast

Northwest

Southeast

Southwest

New Mexico


0

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18

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Northeast Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageJune 23, 2020



0

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Northwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageJune 23, 2020



The areas with the largest burden of disease in AZ also border the NW region in NM

AZ cases per 100,000 population(as of 6/22/2020)

Source: https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php Source: https://navajo-nation-coronavirus-response-ndoh-nec.hub.arcgis.com/

Navajo Nation Service AreaCumulative incidence rate per 10,000

(as of 6/20/2020)

https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php

https://navajo-nation-coronavirus-response-ndoh-nec.hub.arcgis.com/


Case counts in Apache County may be decreasing, while Navajo County is increasing (as of June 22, 2020)

Arizona Apache County(n=2,121)

Navajo County(n=3,037)

Source: https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php

Note: Illness in the last 4-7 days may not be reported yet

https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php


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Southeast Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average June 23, 2020



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Southwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average – June 23, 2020



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Detention Center Impact: Southwest Case Count by Collection Date6/23/2020

Without Detention Centers Detention Center 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Series3)


Los Alamos National Laboratory

Doña Ana, Otero, and El Paso

• Otero: ~30 cases in the community; black circles include detained/incarcerated people.• Doña Ana: modeled with “imported” cases occurring from mid to late May.• Increases in ‘incarcerated’ cases correlate with case increases in Doña Ana and El Paso.

Red line – simulation; Black circles – reported cases

Courtesy of Los Alamos National Laboratory – June 18, 2020.


El Paso County has the 6th highest number of cases in Texas: 4,488 (as of 6/21/2020)

Texas cases by county

Source: https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

COVID-19 in El Paso, TX

Total cases 4,488

Active cases 1,045

Recoveries 3,175

Fatalities 120

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83


Number of cases in El Paso, TX peaked and began to decline in early June, but may be increasing again

Day by day cases (as of June 19, 2020)

El Paso County cases by zip code

>100 cases confirmed near the border with NM (as of June 21, 2020)

Source of exposure(as of June 19, 2020)

Source: http://epstrong.org/results.php

http://epstrong.org/results.php


A majority of the clusters in El Paso, TX have been associated with correctional-detention facilities (as of June 12, 2020)


Hospitalization Rate: Number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population

Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 6.22.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.

447.5

15.3 31.47.2

29.0

70.9

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

June 15, 2020472.2

16.3 33.48.2

33.375.6

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

June 22, 2020


New COVID-19 hospitalizations each weekNM-EDSS on 6/19/2020 at 11:50 AM

New hospitalizations during this time may not yet be reported


COVID-19 hospitalizations and ventilator use

As of June 18, 2020


Mortality Rate: Number of COVID-19 deaths per100,000 population (age-adjusted)

Rates have been age-adjusted to the U.S. 2000 standard population.Source: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 6.19.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.

67.9

0.75.1

0.53.2

16.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

June 14, 2020

74.7

0.75.3

0.73.9

18.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

June 19, 2020


1 11

2

111

2

11

2

1

4

2

4

5

1

6

3

77

4

5

1

5

99

7

66

9

10

8

5

10

11

14

10

5

8

10

12

13

88

12

10

7

8

6

7

6

3

4

6

8

10

8

3

666

8

10

555

7

4

3

4

5

1

6

4

5

4

55

3

2

4

2

4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Num

ber o

f Dea

ths

COVID-19 Deaths by Date of Death, New Mexico

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Deaths)

Reporting through 6/19/2020


Case Fatality Rate: Percentage of COVID-19 cases resulting in death (age-adjusted)

Rates have been age-adjusted to U.S. COVID-19 cases.Source: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division, reporting through 6.19.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.

7.4%

1.2%

5.6%

1.9%2.5%

6.0%5.4%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest New Mexico U.S.

Case

Fat

ality

Rat

e (a

ge-a

djus

ted)


New Mexico Status Updates

• Case count: Statewide, daily case counts have plateaued.

• Hospitalizations: For the past two weeks, hospitalizations have declined.

• Deaths: Deaths have been steadily declining since mid-May.

• Social distancing: Cell phone data suggests the mobility of New Mexico is on the rise and, in some counties, is reaching pre-pandemic levels.

• Contact tracing: The median time to quarantine for contacts identified last week was 2 days.


Supplementary Slides


Modeling Assumptions

Variable Measured Value Value as of 6.23.20

R_Effective Actual Measured Daily Value by key county

R_eff=1.08

Positive Test Multiplier Calculated by LANL 4.4

Hospitalization and Mortality Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected

Medical 0.3% ICU 0.3%Vent Rate 60.9% of ICUCrude Case Fatality Rate 4.4%

Length of Stay Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected

Medical 5 daysICU 14 days ICU on Vent 14 days

covid-19 hospitalizations in new mexico · 1190 s. st. francis drive • santa fe, nm 87505 •...

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