covid-19 hospitalizations in new mexico · 2020. 8. 4. · 1190 s. st. francis drive • santa fe,...
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic and Modeling
UpdateAugust 4, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
New Mexico has the 31st highest prevalence in the United States
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 prevalence per 100,000 population
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 8.2.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.
17.2
9.712.2
19.7
15.814.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Case
s pe
r 100
,000
Pop
ulat
ion
New cases (Last 7 days) – July 28
31.4
7.1
9.5
20.0
12.013.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35The NW Region 7-day rate includes the recent outbreak in Cibola County Correctional Center.
New cases (Last 7 days) – August 3
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Statewide R-effective has decreased to 0.9.
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – August 3, 2020.
0.9
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 8.4.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
New Mexico COVID-19 Cases by Date of Specimen Collection – 8/4/20
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Northeast R_effective 0.8↓
MetroR_effective 0.8↓
Southeast R_effective 1.1 ↓
SouthwestR_effective 0.7 ↓
NorthwestR_effective 1.0 ↓
Low Level Endemic <1.0
Approaching Low Level Endemic1.0-1.05
Requiring further mitigation >1.05
Key
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – August 3, 2020.
As of July 28, 2020
Region R-effective 95% Confidence Interval
State 0.9 [0.5, 1.3]
Metro 0.8 [0.2, 1.4]
Northeast 0.8 [0.0, 2.5]
Northwest 1.0 [0.2, 2.0]
Southeast 1.1 [0.2, 1.9]
Southwest 0.7 [0.0, 1.6]
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
The Northwest, Metro, Northeast, and Southwest relative growth rate have dropped below 0.
↑ Increasing case counts
↓ Decreasing case counts
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – August 3, 2020.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 8.4.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Metro Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageAugust 4, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 8.4.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Northeast Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageAugust 4, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 8.4.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Northwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageAugust 4, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 8.4.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Southeast Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageAugust 4, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.21.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
0
50
100
150
200
250
Southwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageAugust 4, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
7 day moving average
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Visits to restaurants and community gatherings has decreased among cases. Travel remains high.
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 8.4.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
As of July 31, 2020
Hospitalizations are beginning to decrease. As of 8/3, ventilator use is at 22%.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Weekly hospitalizations may be beginning to increase in the NW region, decrease in the Metro region, and plateau in the NE region.
Hospitalizations may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Sharp increase in deaths two weeks ago, but decreased last week
2
9
19
33
43
67 66
60
45 46
35 33 31
2023 23
26
41
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Num
ber o
f Dea
ths
COVID-19 Deaths by Week of Death, New Mexico
Reporting through 7/31/2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Since last week, COVID-19 age-adjusted case fatality rates have decreased in the NW, Metro, and SE regions, but increased in the SW region
Note: Age-adjusted case fatality rates are adjusted to the current distribution of U.S. COVID-19 cases on 8/2. https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/index.html#demographicsCDC age group categories differ from those previously reported, so the age-adjusted rates for NM are not comparable to previously produced rates.Source: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division, reporting through 8.2.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
6.3%
1.3%
3.5%
1.1%
2.7%
4.3%
3.3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest New Mexico U.S.
Case
Fat
ality
Rat
e (a
ge-a
djus
ted)
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
New Mexico Status Updates
• Case count: Statewide, the increase in daily case counts are declining.
• Hospitalizations: After a period of increase in July, hospitalizations are decreasing.
• Deaths: There was a spike in deaths two weeks ago, but decreased last week
• Social distancing: Cell phone data suggests the mobility of New Mexico residents has been stable, but this varies by region.
• Contact tracing: The median time to quarantine for contacts identified last week was 2 days.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Supplementary Slides
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Modeling Assumptions
Variable Measured Value Value as of 8.3.20
R_Effective Actual Measured Daily Value by key county
R_eff=0.9
Positive Test Multiplier Calculated by LANL 4.4
Hospitalization and Mortality Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected
Medical 0.22% ICU 0.15%Vent Rate 54% of ICUCrude Case Fatality Rate 4.4%
Length of Stay Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected
Medical 5 daysICU 14 days ICU on Vent 14 days