#conversion2015 amsterdam keynote ton wesseling

Download #Conversion2015 Amsterdam keynote Ton Wesseling

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  • O N L I N E D I A L O G U E G u i d i n g y o u t o d i g i t a l m a t u r i t y

    D e m y t h e n , d e l e u g e n s e n d e i l l u s i e s # C o n v e r s i o n 2 0 1 5 A m s t e r d a m A p r i l 1 4 t h 2 0 1 5

    To n W e s s e l i n g

    A / B - t e s t e n

  • E m a i l : t o n @ w e s s e l i n g . n e t !L i n k e d i n : t o n w e s s e l i n g !

    T w i t t e r : @ t o n w !!

    Ton Wessel ing !

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Webanal isten.nl

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Onl ine Dia logue

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Test ing.agency

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Emerce magazine: conversion column

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Conversion Conferences wor ldwide

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Conversion speakers

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Where is Craig Sul l ivan?

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Replacing Craig

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    At least he quotes me

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    So..

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    More exper iments

    If you double the number of experiments you do per year

    youre going to double your inventiveness

    Je Bezos, CEO Amazon 2004!

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Like Amazon, Like Zalando Ge

    rman

    Eco

    mm

    erce

    mar

    ket,

    than

    k yo

    u An

    dr

    Mor

    ys

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Exper iments per year

    1000+

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Why not?

    Compare to the past?

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Why can this lead to fa i lures?

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    A big weekly change!

    26 out of 44 weeks: over 5% change!

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Methods used to improve conversion

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Methods companies plan to use

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    I t s just

    HOT

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Lack of resources

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Test more

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Importance of a structured approach

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    More exper iments

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    The negat ive effect trend

    Time span!

    Aver

    age

    effe

    ct of

    opt

    imza

    tion!

    at co

    mpa

    nies a

    pplyi

    ng o

    ptim

    izatio

    n!M

    oney spend on!Optim

    ization worldwide!

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    I t s not a solut ion

    Its a method

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    I t s a way of working

    Its DNA

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    So i t s a method:

    When

    HowWhat

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Growth curve how i t was teached

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Optimizat ion phases - ROAR

    Time span!

    Conv

    ersio

    ns p

    er m

    onth

    !

    Risk! + Optimization! + Automation! Re-think!

    1.000 conversions!per month!

    10.000 conversions per month!

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Phase 1: br idge the gap Risk

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Fake adwords test ing

    Do theyclickon your idea?

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Fake facebook test ing

    Do theylikeyour idea?

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Fake landing page test ing

    Do theysubscribeto your idea?

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Phase 1: br idge the gap Risk

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Get out of the office

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Risk

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    ROAR - Opt imizat ion

    Time span!

    Conv

    ersio

    ns p

    er m

    onth

    !

    Risk! + Optimization! + Automation! Re-think!

    1.000 conversions!per month!

    10.000 conversions per month!

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Warning: low significance levels

    Big chance the winner is not a real winner

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Warning: low power levels

    Big chance a real winner is not recognized

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Example test set-up

    90% significance level 100 conversions per variation Average conversion rate: 2%

    20 out of 100 ideas is a winner with an average uplift of 10%

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Average: 75% significance & 40% power

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    So:

    100 tests will give 10 false positives (90% significance) 40% of the 20 winners are recognized (40% power)

    8 real winners & 10 false positives NOT 18 improvements of 10%+

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    You need big numbers per var iat ion

    Time span!

    Conv

    ersio

    ns p

    er m

    onth

    !

    Risk! + Optimization! + Automation! Re-think!

    1.000 conversions!per month!

    10.000 conversions per month!

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    With 1000 conversions + a month

    20+ tests a year

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Tests with impact, on average

    1 out of 3

    Simply truth: youre just not always able to create a winner with enough impact!

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    So in th is case, youve impact

    Every 6 weeks

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Slower? Energy wi l l run out!

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    What to test? Business cases!

    Delivery test with in stock. 4 weeks

    or 2 days?!

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    What to test? Business cases!

    Service charge, do it or not? Include in price or not?!

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    What to test? Big design changes

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Warning: choose what to analyze up front

    You just go and dig unitil you find something (you will always find something that seems true BUT is not!)

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Dont stop the test once i t s s ignificant!

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    Dont stop the test once i t s s ignificant!

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    You just let i t run unt i l i t s s ignificant

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    You just let i t run unt i l i t s s ignificant

    Your test has a fixed lenght!

    Its even a fixed amount of test population, but we love to test business cycles and/or weeks!

  • onlinedialogue.com #Conversion2015 Amsterdam Ton Wesseling April 14th 2015

    ABTestGuide.com/calc

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