keynote ton wesseling at the web analytics wednesday copenhagen #wawcph at september 7th 2016

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SUBTITLE BELOW What gets you excited? LOOKING AS A WEB ANALYST TO CONVERSION OPTIMIZATION

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SUBTITLE BELOW!

What gets you excited?!LOOKING AS A WEB ANALYST TO CONVERSION OPTIMIZATION!

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Evidence based growth

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Conversionrateop-miza-on

Analytics Psychology

Lots of Experiments

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F!FIND

T!TELL

A!ANALYZE

C!COMBINE

C!CREATE

A!ANALYZE

T!TEST

F!FIND

T!TELL

A!ANALYZE

C!COMBINE

C!CREATE

A!ANALYZE

T!TEST

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What gets you excited?!

Ü  ANALYZING HOW USER BEHAVIOUR IS CHANGING!!

@AM_Klaassen / @tomvdberg1

We started with them

7 years ago

Flow optimization

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A

2009

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B A

Winner

Flow optimization

Dialogue optimization

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A

2012

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Winner

B A

Flow optimization

Customer Journey Optimization

Dialogue optimization

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#ConvConOnline Dialogue & Testing Agency

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Did you already decided which hotel you want to stay in?

Are you currently comparing the price of the rooms in this hotel at other websites?

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Book with your Valk account and get a €5 bonus

Easily control your booking with your Valk account

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What gets you excited?!

Ü  INJECTING FEEDBACK FORM RESPONSES INTO ANALYTICS!

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Toolsforrunningexperiments

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Frontenddevelopment

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WemeasureresultsinGoogleAnaly-cs

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Theydohaveanaly-cs–butnotenough

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Eventtrackingvaria-onbehaviour

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WhynotuseGoogleTagManager?

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Jorrin Quest

hDp://gtmtes-ng.com

Soweopenedupourlibraryforyou

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ü  Easy setup

ü  Free

ü  Preview mode

hDp://gtmtes-ng.com

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Resultsspreadsheetthroughtheanaly-csAPI

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DownloadourExcelforfree:hDp://ondi.me/vis

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DownloadourExcelforfree:hDp://ondi.me/vis

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What gets you excited?!

Ü  AUTOMATED GTM / GA / EXCEL RESULTS SET-UP !

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•  Exampletest:Orderflow

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•  Exampletest:Setcomple-on

A B

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•  Testresult!

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•  No effect on conversion à Don’t implement à Re-test with higher volumes

•  Conclusion !

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•  What’sthealterna-ve?

Frequentist statistics

Bayesian statistics

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•  Exampletest:Setcomple-onA B

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•  BayesianTestevalua-on

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•  Focusonriskassessment

88,4%

A test result is the probability that B outperforms A: ranging from 0% - 100%

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!

IMPLEMENT B! PROBABILITY! * EFFECT ON REVENU!

Expected risk 11,6% - € 69.791

Expected uplift 88,4% € 213.530

Contribution € 180.733

* Based on 6 months and an average order value of € 175

•  Makeariskassessment

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•  ImplementBB

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abtestguide.com/bayesian/!

Roy Schieving

Annemarie Klaassen

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•  ConclusionBayesian

ü  Easier to understand and communicate

ü  Better suits the business ü  Don’t throw away good ideas

(indicatively significant)

ü  Higher implementation rate and revenue

€0

€1.000.000

€2.000.000

€3.000.000

€4.000.000

€5.000.000

€6.000.000

1 3 5 7 9 111315171921232527293133353739

Expected impact on revenue in 1 year

€Frequen-st €Bayesian

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What gets you excited?!

Ü  BAYESIAN STATISTICS APPLIED ON EXPERIMENT RESULTS!

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Book with your Valk account and get a €5 bonus

Easily control your booking with your Valk account

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50%

50%

A

B

•  A/B-test

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•  Trafficalloca-onover-me

A

B

Traffic

Time

Profit or loss?

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Themul-armbanditproblem

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•  Sothiswillhappeninyourexperiment:

A

B

Traffic

Time

More Profit!

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Explore Exploit ?

•  Explore/Exploitdilemma

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Limited time frame Automation

•  WhenuseBandits?

Earn over learn

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Website

GTM testing

A

B

Google Tag Manager

User has Test cookie

No

Yes

Traffic Random

50/50

Show A or B

•  A/Btest

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Website

GTM testing

A

B

Google Tag Manager

User has Test cookie

No

Yes

Traffic Random

50/50

Show A or B

Must be dynamic! •  Bandit

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Website

GTM testing

A

B

Google Tag Manager

User has Test cookie

No

Yes

Get traffic allocation

Show A or B

Hourly check GA data for test

Algorithm

Write Traffic allocation,js

•  Bandit

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Get traffic allocation

Hourly check GA data for test

Algorithm

Write Traffic allocation,js

[email protected]

Get traffic allocation

Hourly check GA data for test

Algorithm

Write Traffic allocation,js

[email protected]

Get traffic allocation

Hourly check GA data for test

Algorithm

Write Traffic allocation,js

[email protected]

Get traffic allocation

Hourly check GA data for test

Algorithm

Write Traffic allocation,js

[email protected]

Get traffic allocation

Hourly check GA data for test

Algorithm

Write Traffic allocation,js

[email protected]

Website

GTM testing

A

B

Google Tag Manager

User has Test cookie

No

Yes

Get traffic allocation

Show A or B

Hourly check GA data for test

Algorithm

Write Traffic allocation,js

•  Bandit

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•  Examplecase

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•  Examplecase

ü Older target group

ü Comparing price on other sites

ü  Behavior of others

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•  Example1

Control! No message

Variation B! Copy default

Variaton C!

Variation D!

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11,1%

10,6%

10,4%

10,5%

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•  Example1–Effectonrevenue

A

B

Traffic

Time

+ € 6.637

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•  ConclusionBandits

ü  Less regret during testing

ü  No implementation costs ü  It never stops!

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Lay-overno-fica-ons

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www.smartno-fica-ons.com

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What gets you excited?!

Ü  AUTOMATED PERSUASIVE MESSAGING FOR YOUR WEBSITE!

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www.smartno-fica-ons.com

SUBTITLE BELOW!

Ü  ANALYSING HOW USER BEHAVIOUR IS CHANGING!!

Ü  INJECTING FEEDBACK FORM RESPONSES INTO ANALYTICS!

Ü  AUTOMATED GTM / GA / EXCEL RESULTS SET-UP !

Ü  BAYESIAN STATISTICS APPLIED ON EXPERIMENT RESULTS!

Ü  AUTOMATED PERSUASIVE MESSAGING FOR YOUR WEBSITE!

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Thank you!!TWITTER: @TONW – EMAIL: [email protected]!