Consumer Confidence Tracker

February 2016

PREPARED BY: Luke Reaper & Anita Mullan J.7158

2

Introduction

3

● This report presents the findings of the February 2016 phase of the Behaviour & Attitudes’ Consumer Confidence Tracker.

● Survey results for this phase are based on a sample of 1,000 adults aged 16+, quota controlled in terms of age, gender, socio-economic class and region to reflect the profile of the adult population of the Republic of Ireland.

● All interviewing on the survey is conducted on our fortnightly face-to-face Barometer by trained members of the B&A field force working under ESOMAR guidelines.

● Fieldwork on the latest wave was carried out between the 3rd - 13th of February, 2016.

Introduction

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● B&A is Ireland’s largest and most experienced independently owned research company.

● We pride ourselves on having the most experienced director team in Ireland. All projects have a director involved.

● Established over 30 years ago, Behaviour and Attitudes provides a full range of market research services, ranging from CAPI, CATI, online and of course qualitative.

● Specialist sectors include: Retail & Shopper, Technology & Telecoms, Media, Financial, Political & Social, Polling, Automotive, Healthcare and Public Sector & Utilities.

● For more information please visit our website at: www.banda.ie or contact us on +353 1 2057500.

About Behaviour & Attitudes

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Key Highlights

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● As a context the macro economy remains positive.

● As we head into the General Election consumer confidence in the economy for the year ahead remains positive.

● While all areas of the country are positive towards the economic prospects, Dubliners are significantly more optimistic, followed by other urban centers with rural residents being the least positive.

● Only 14% of the population feel the country will be worse off in the coming year.

● Despite the uncertainties over the make up of the next Government, election promises may be helping the sandwich generation and blue collar workers to see the light at the end of the economic tunnel.

● In line with stablisation in consumer confidence, attitudes towards personal finances in the year ahead have become more positive. However those in Dublin continue to be much more positive regarding any expected income increases.

● While consumers remain cautious about their purchasing of goods and services in the year ahead a steady improvement in disposition to spend is evident.

● Overall net savings have also hit a period of non-movement, as the majority of consumers expect their savings to remain the same over the coming 12 months.

● Overall 1 in 4 expect the value of their personal assets to increase over the next 12 months.

● Overall Irish consumer confidence is positive and a solidity is evident. However it should not be forgotten that certain sections of society are still registering low optimism.

Key Highlights

The Macro

Context

GDP & GNP remain positive

Source: www.CSO.ie Quarterly National Accounts

42,773 42,813

41,901 41,529

41,884 42,218

42,496

41,919

42,589

43,449 43,392 43,793

42,710 42,687 43,089

44,216

42,713 42,771

43,868 43,682

44,912 45,410 45,446 45,619

48,849

50,131

50,904

35,751

35,093

34,109 33,774

34,305

34,875

35,709 35,776

34,922 34,992 35,078 34,651

34,236

35,384 35,436

36,109 35,939 35,611

37,179 37,145

37,835 37,921 38,100

39,336

41,803

42,839

42,311

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

GDP Vs GNP

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

* Q4 2015 results not yet available

9

The number in employment is increasing

1,996,400

1,974,000

1,953,600

1,921,400

1,891,900 1,893,600

1,886,100

1,857,300

1,841,800

1,861,300

1,845,600 1,847,700

1,825,000

1,836,200 1,841,300

1,848,900

1,845,600

1,869,900

1,899,300

1,909,800

1,888,200

1,901,600

1,926,900

1,938,900

1,929,500

1,958,000

1,929,500

1,958,000

1,983,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q3

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

+56,000 (vs. Q3 2014)

*Source: www.CSO.ie/Quarterly National Household survey Q4 2015 data not yet available

10 Source: www.CSO.ie/Persons on live register * Live Register Total data

-10.28% Overall Change

vs. January 2015

-7.11% vs. January 2015

-12.33% vs. Oct 2014

8.6% Current Rate

of unemployment.

131,127 189,667

The Live Register

12.0 13.8 14.6 14.7

13.6 11.5

9.6 8.6

0

5

10

15

20

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(f)

% Rate of Unemployment

While those on the live register continues to decline

Unemployment in Ireland

(vs. 9.6% in 2015)

Source: www.CSO.ie/Quarterly National Household survey

11

Live Register numbers appear to be stabilising

* The Live Register is not designed to measure unemployment. It includes part-time work e.g. seasonal &

casual workers who work up to 3 days per week

136,962

166,000 171,300

186,300

198,400

245,800

278,300

351,000

371,000

426,000 425,400

434,700 433,000

449,600

438,800 439,200 439,200 436,000

448,600

438,300 436,000 435,200 432,300 428,800 426,000

414,300 406,200

398,300 392,700

404,515

370,050 367,100

355,600 349,500

363,628

359,076

320,794 316,586

321,802

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

No

v '

00

Sep

t '0

7

No

v '

07

Feb

'0

8

Ap

r '0

8

Sep

t '0

8

No

v '

08

Feb

'0

9

Ap

r '0

9

Sep

'0

9

No

v '

09

Feb

'1

0

Ap

r '1

0

Sep

'1

0

No

v '

10

Feb

'1

1

Ap

r '1

1

Sep

'1

1

No

v '

11

Feb

'1

2

Ap

r '1

2

Sep

'1

2

No

v '

12

Feb

'1

3

Ap

r '1

3

Sep

'1

3

No

v '

13

Feb

'1

4

Ap

r '1

4

Ju

l '1

4

Sep

'1

4

No

v '

14

Feb

'1

5

Ap

r'1

5

Ju

l '1

5

Au

g '1

5

Oct

'15

No

v '

15

Jan

'1

6

Source: www.CSO.ie/Persons on live register

12

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Q1 -39.9 -10.0 -10.3 -7.1 -5.8 -4.7

Q2 -14.9 -7.8 -8.2 -4.3 -2.9 -0.8

Q3 -32.2 -25.0 -7.2 -6.0 -4.3 -2.2

Q4 -42.7 -7.3 -6.6 -5.6 -2.9

General government surplus/deficit is also balancing out

Source: www.CSO.ie/Indicators/default

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Balance of Payments has stabilised

-2382

-1234

-354

-1155 -1032 -169

1370 777

-1323

557

1526

616

-1228

632

1700 1598

781

1326

2687 2839

960

1879

3125

3718

1625

2704

2,446

-2500

-1500

-500

500

1500

2500

3500

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Source: www.CSO.ie/Balance of international payments

* Q4 data not yet available

Consumer Confidence Findings

As we head into the General Election consumer

confidence for the year ahead remains positive.

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Consumer Confidence for the next 12 months remains high, but has plateaued

Source: B&A Consumer Confidence Report

Q.1 Q.2

Thinking about the economy as a whole, do you think that the country is better off, worse off, or about the same as last year? And what about the coming year, do you think that the country will be better off, worse off or about the same as this year?

Looking Back vs. Looking Forward (Net Diff: Positive-Negative)

-88 -93 -91

-86 -81

-50

-82 -86

-72

-59

-69 -64

-56 -57 -62

-51 -53

-46

-27 -31

-7

0 2 1

7 12

7

20 20

-74 -76

-65

-58 -54

-20

-74 -70

-58

-45

-64

-52

-44 -50

-60

-39 -44

-36

-18

-25

-4

6 6 4

12 14

7

25 26

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

Mar May Sept Nov Mar July Nov Jan Apr July Nov Mar May Sept Nov Feb Apr July Sept Dec Feb Apr July Sep Feb Apr Sept Nov Feb

Net diff looking forward Dublin +40 Other Urban +24 Rural +18

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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While all areas of the country are positive towards the country’s economic prospects, Dubliners are significantly more optimistic, followed by other urban centres with rural residents being the least positive Base: All Adults 16+

40

46

14

Better off

The same

Worse off

February 2016

%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015’ Feb ’16

Gap = -15 -59 -68 -49 -58 -52 -32 +3 +15 +26

*Net Diff (GAP) +26%

A 3 speed economy still exists, with

those living in Dublin being

most positive.

Q.2 And what about the coming year, do you think that the country will be better off, worse off or about the same as this year?

Dublin: +40%

Rural: +18%

Other Urban: +24%

18

26% 27% 26% 27%

32%

17%

40%

21%

25%

32%

47%

31%

36%

9%

Total Male Female -34 35-54 55+ Dublin OutsideDublin

Irish NonIrish

DublinABC1F+

DublinC2DEF-

OutsideDublin

ABC1F+

OutsideDublinC2DEF-

% Net Difference

(Better – Worse off)

The sandwich generation (aged 35-54) and blue collar sector (especially Outside Dublin) have begun to see the light at the end of the tunnel Base: All Adults 16+

Q.2 And what about the coming year, do you think that the country will be better off, worse off or about the same as this year?

NET Diff 25% 25% 25% 29% 21% 26% 31% 23% 24% 34% 40% 20% 38% 11%

Blue Collar Consumers outside Dublin register the lowest confidence.

19

Personal Finances – attitudes towards personal finances have become more positive Base: All Adults 16+

22

60

18

Higher

The same

Lower

February 2016

%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Feb 16

Gap = -15 -59 -68 -49 -58 -52 -32 -22 -6 +4

*Net Diff (GAP) +4%

Dublin is much more

positive towards personal finances.

Q.5 Do you expect your income in the next year, after inflation and taxes, to be higher, lower or the same as in the last twelve months?

Other Urban: -1%

Dublin: +13%

Rural: +1%

20

Personal Finances – Looking Forward YOY Base: All Adults 16+

25 30 28

13

5 7 7 7 8 13

17

0

11 14 12

16 18 14 16 19

22

58 58

59

52

30

35 31

34

41

49

61

0

42

51 54

55 59

62 59

65 60

13 12 13

34

64 57

63 59

51

38

22

0

47

35 34 29

24 25 25

17 18

Long Term 2014 2015 2016

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Feb April July Sep Feb April Sept Nov Feb

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

Higher

The same

Lower

Gap +12 +18 +15 -21 -59 -50 -56 -52 -43 -25 -6 -36 -21 -22 -13 -6 -11 -9 +2 +4

Expect it to be….

Q.5 Do you expect your income in the next year, after inflation and taxes, to be higher, lower or the same as in the last twelve months?

21

Savings – Net future savings are expected to remain the same over the next 12 months Base: All Adults 16+

Q.8 Do you expect to save more, less or the same amount in the year ahead compared with the last twelve months?

18

62

20

More

The same

Lower

February 2016

%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Feb ’16

Gap -1 -5 -34 -56 -48 -50 -48 -40 -24 -13 -2

*Net Diff (GAP) -2%

Other Urban: -5%

Dublin: +8%

Rural -8%

22

Personal Assets– 1 in 4 consumers expect the value of their personal assets to increase over the next 12 months Base: All Adults 16+

Q.6 Do you expect your assets (your house, shares, pension entitlements, savings) In the next year to be higher, lower or the same as in the past year?

25

66

8

Higher

The same

Lower

February 2016

%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Feb 16

Gap +33 +20 -25 -53 -43 -41 -31 -18 -1 +14 +17

*Net Diff (GAP) +17%

Dublin: +23%

Other Urban: +17%

Rural: +13%

23

Purchasing Goods and Services – Despite consumers

remaining cautious about purchasing goods and services in the year ahead, a steady improvement in disposition to spend is evident Base: All Adults 16+

Q.7 In the year ahead, do you expect to purchase more, less or the same amount of goods and services as in the past year?

15

66

19

More

The same

Less

February 2016

%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Feb ’16

Gap +7 +5 -29 -63 -47 -52 -45 -37 -19 -13 -3%

*Net Diff (GAP) -3%

Other Urban: -4%

Dublin: -1%

Rural : -4%

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Balance Of Opinion in Summary – The Year Ahead Expectations in regard to asset value, purchases, and savings.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Yearly Averages

Long Term Short Term

Dec Feb Apr Jul Sep Feb Apr Sept Nov Feb

2013 2014 2015 2016

6 9

21

31 33

20

-25

-53

-43 -41

-4

-20

1

14

-10 -12

-12

4 7 5

-29

-63

-47

-52

-5

-13 -19

-13

-23 -28

-8

-5 -1

-5

-34

-56

-48

-50

-13

-4

-24

-13

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Asset Value Purchases Savings

-10 -9 -8

-1 3

20

10 9

16 17

-29 -29 -30

-16 -16 -12

-16 -16

-7 -3

-31 -34 -33

-23 -20

-11

-19 -18

-6 -2

25 Q.10 About how much would you say you spend each week on things you buy for yourself including money spent on clothes, eating

out, going for a drink, going to the cinema, gambling, sporting activities and so on?

€50.94

€61.29

€83.97

€62.32

€46.86 €46.21 €46.30

€50.43 €49.64 €53.13 €53.84

€57.42

2001 2004 2008 2010 2012 2013 2014 Feb '15 April '15 Sept ' 15 Nov '15 Feb '16

Discretionary income is positive but mainly for Dubliners and ABC1s Base: All Adults 18+

Long Term Short Term

Dublin €73.06

Outside Dublin €51.61

ABC1 €64.04

C2DE €52.67