uk consumer tracker - bord bia

UK Consumer Pulse

May 2021

What We Did

Online Tracking Survey

National Survey of UK Grocery Shoppers

N=1,076

Wave=11

Fieldwork: 7th – 9th May 2021.

Why did we do it?

To enhance our understanding of the impact of Brexit

and its ensuing economic effects on UK consumers

and also to understanding their perceptions and

attitudes to Ireland and Irish produce.

Source: The Guardian, 2021

Methodology and Context

Bord Bia are continuing the tracking of UK grocery shoppers to

gauge how the Brexit situation is impacting on attitudes towards

the Rep. of Ireland and the core food & drink export categories.

This study is conducted via a nationally representative survey

of UK grocery shoppers online and this is the 11th wave of

research conducted to date. The fieldwork for this period was

conducted between the 7th – 9th May 2021.

The survey focuses on a range of Brexit related topics including

understanding the mood of the nation, personal impact based on

economic situation, perceptions of Rep. of Ireland food and drink

vs. key competitor markets around being local, openness to

choosing, trust, visibility and premium credentials. It also

evaluates the extent that Rep. of Ireland food and drink would be

missed should Brexit encourage a price increase or a limitation in

availability of Irish produce.

Bord Bia’s research partners for this project is

Source: The Guardian, 2021

Mood of the Nation & Perceived Impact of Brexit on Food & Drink

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In the United Kingdom, the consumer

confidence survey measures the level of

optimism that consumers have about the

performance of the economy in the next 12

months. The GfK Consumer Confidence is

derived from the survey of about 2,000

consumers who are asked to rate the

relative level of past and future economic

conditions including personal financial

situation, climate for major purchases,

overall economic situation and savings

level.

Consumer confidence has significantly

improved since Jan’21 indicating a much

more positive outlook for the year ahead.

Mood of the Nation and Economic Outlook

Currently the UK is at its highest level of consumer confidence since early March 2020, as the UK rolled out vaccines rapidly and set out a path for reopening the economy (GFK, 22th April 2021)

United Kingdom Consumer Confidence | 1981-2021 Data | 2022-2023 Forecast |

Calendar (tradingeconomics.com)

Brexit Referendum Day

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/consumer-confidence

In hindsight, do you think Britain

was right or wrong to leave the EU?

Was Britain Right or Wrong to leave the EU ?(Base: Grocery Shoppers 18+ in the United Kingdom, n=1,076)

45%

44%

11%

RIGHT

WRONG

DON’T KNOW

From Bord Bia’s Brexit Pulse Survey May 2021

Of respondents who voted leave vs. remain:

LEAVE REMAIN

RIGHT 84% 12%

WRONG 9% 80%

DON’T KNOW 8% 7%

Even as Brexit becomes embedded and ‘real’, the

public opinion remains almost as you were in terms of

the perceived wisdom of this policy.

If there was another Brexit referendum

tomorrow, how would you vote?

Leave or Remain: would you vote differently tomorrow?

43%

45%

6%

LEAVE

Of respondents who voted leave vs. remain

LEAVE REMAIN

LEAVE 84% 9%

REMAIN 9% 84%

DON’T KNOW 5% 5%

REMAIN

DON’T KNOW

Interestingly as many previous Remain voters

would now vote to leave as previous Leave

voters would now vote to remain. The lead for

Remain overall driven by consumers previously

ineligible to vote.

From Bord Bia’s Brexit Pulse Survey May 2021

(Base: Grocery Shoppers 18+ in the United Kingdom, n=1,076)

Only 3 in 10 (34%) UK Shoppers think

that Brexit will be positive for the UK

grocery shopper with 68% expecting that

it will result in higher prices for groceries.

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4 in 10 (40%) UK grocery shoppers feel

there will be less choice in the future due to

Brexit while 35% expect that the quality of

produce will be negatively impacted.

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Photo by Steve Harvey on Unsplash

Only 3 in 10 (32%) of UK Shoppers are consciously trying

to buy more British food (this is less than half (48%)

among previous leave voters).

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Perceived Impact of Brexit on Grocery Shopping in UK

18%

28%

32%

34%

35%

40%

58%

If I have the choice, I will avoid groceryproducts from the EU because of Brexit

I have noticed that certain foods I buyhave not been as easy to get because

of Brexit

I am consciously trying to buy moreBritish food because of Brexit

Overall, I think Brexit will be positive forUK grocery shoppers

I expect the quality of some products onour grocery shelves to be negatively

impacted by Brexit

I think there will be less choice for UKshoppers in the future due to Brexit

I expect Brexit will lead to higher pricesfor UK grocery shoppers

Leave Remain

41% 76%

22% 61%

17% 55%

62% 11%

48% 23%

20% 40%

28% 11%

Here are some things that have been said about the impact of Brexit on grocery shopping in the UK.

For each of these can you please say whether you agree or disagree?

NET Agree

(Somewhat / Strongly)

The emotional divide between

previous voting behaviour is

evident in terms of attitudes

towards grocery shopping with

previous remain voters much

more likely to expect negative

grocery impacts as a result of

Brexit.

Many previous leave voters

however are sceptical about the

potential fall out on grocery

related to Brexit.


Personal Impact

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Your ability to travel/ go on holidays

Personal Impact of Economic Situation on…

To what extent do you think the current economic situation is having a negative or positive impact for you personally in each of the following areas?

34%37% 37% 33%

41% 38%

63% 63% 65%

45%

39%

44%

45% 45% 46%41% 45%

24% 24% 21% 34%

42%

8%7% 8% 9% 9% 7% 6% 6% 6%

10% 11%

JAN 19 MAR 19 MAY 19 JUL 19 SEP 19 NOV 19 MAY 20 AUG 20 OCT 20 JAN 21 MAY 21

Negative Impact No Impact Positive Impact

Your optimism for the future

46%

52% 47% 49% 53% 53%61% 57% 62%

39%33%

25%22% 24% 25%

19%

21% 22% 22% 18%23% 30%

18%17% 20% 17%

21%

18% 11% 15% 13%

28%

30%



While levels of positivity remain stable across economic related attitudes, there is a marked decrease in the perceived levels of negative economic impact that Brexit is having on consumers’ lives.


40%

43%

40%

42% 45% 45% 50% 47% 47%

30% 25%41%

41%

41%

39% 38% 40%33% 36% 36%

47%

57%

6%6% 8% 9% 8% 7% 9% 11% 10% 10% 9%



Your personal finances

Your job security and prospects

22%

24% 23% 23% 24% 27%

34%

33%32%

21%16%

53%52% 52% 51% 52% 54%

42%46% 47%

55%64%

6%6% 8% 8% 6% 6%

7%7% 7%

8% 9%



Personal Impact of Economic Situation on…

To what extent do you think the that the current Brexit deal is having a negative or positive impact for you personally in each of the following areas?

… however the clear erosion of negativity from a personal economic perspective is not translating to the same extent in food & drink terms. While notably negativity towards the EU is evident

How you feel about the EUHow you feel about the EU

33%

43%

15%

MAY 21



The cost of food and drink in the UK

49%52%

47% 49% 53% 53%61%

54% 55%48% 45%

35%33% 33% 32% 31% 32% 30% 32% 32% 31%

38%

6%6% 8% 7% 6% 6% 7%

9% 6% 8% 8%



28%

31% 30% 29% 36% 31%41% 28% 30% 30% 30%

53%53% 54% 53%

48%55%

43%

55% 55%50% 53%

7%6% 8% 8% 9% 7%

9%

10% 8% 11% 9%



Accessing the food and drink you enjoy

6%

7%

7%

8%

9%

10%

10%

11%

13%

13%

14%

19%

26%

28%

29%

Fresh bread

Butter

Cheddar cheese

Tea

Fresh pork

Beer

Fresh beef

Premium chocolate

Coffee

Fresh poultry

Red Wine

Fresh fish

Fresh vegetables

Continental Cheese

Fresh fruit

And which, if any, of the following type(s) of food and drink are you concerned about with regard to availability of these post - Brexit?

Foods most Concerned about Availability post-Brexit

8%

8%

12%

15%Premium chocolate (n=351)

Fresh beef (n=418)

Butter (n=697)

Cheddar cheese

(n=728)

Concern over Availability among Regular

Buyers of each food type…

The level of concern for key

Irish export categories is lower

than those from mainland

Europe (e.g. fruit & veg and

continental cheese)


How is Ireland viewed in the UK?

66% 63% 67% 69% 66% 69% 66%73%

65% 66% 65%

JAN 19 MAR 19 MAY 19 JUL 19 SEP 19 NOV 19 MAY 20 AUG 20 OCT 20 JAN 21 May 21

Considered a Friend or Foe to the UK…

For each of the following countries/ regions, would you currently consider them a ‘friend’ or ‘foe’ of the UK’s?

Friend

ROI considered a ‘Friend’ over time

56%

42%

32%

30%

18%

7%

7%

6%

7%

11%

30%

37%

44%

63%

65%

70%

Foe

-10

-1

+6

-6

-10

-3

+1

=

The Rep. of Ireland has maintained strong friend status despite apparent pressure on relationships with other EU members and with the EU itself. This indicates a decoupling of association among UK shoppers

regarding the Rep. of Ireland and its relationship to the EU.


58%

64%

72%

73%

74%

80%

81%

88%

85% 86% 86% 85% 89% 87%82%

87% 85% 88% 88%


Openness to choosing Food & Drink from…

To what extent are you open to choosing food and drink from these markets currently?

Openness to choosing Food & Drink

from….

Openness to choosing Food & Drink from ROI over time

UK Shoppers remain as open as ever to choosing Food & Drink from the Rep. of Ireland…


The Continued Importance of Trust

The reality is that the Rep. of Ireland is still the

most trusted European origin for food and

drink outside of the UK, and is growing over time

while the EU and other EU countries are

decreasing.

Given the increasing importance of TRUST in the

grocery environment currently, it appears

paramount that Irish producers reinforce the trust

that UK shoppers have for Irish food and drink

produce when engaging with retailers in the

current Brexit climate.

49%

46%

47%

59%

I trust food and drink from hereTotal Grocery Shoppers May’21

+4

-8

-5

-1

v Jan 21

17%

30%

36%

41%

45%

46%

59% =

=

=

-1

=

+1

+1

Origin Equity for Food & Drink

I trust food and drink from here

Their food adheres to really high

quality standards

Reassured if a food or drink product

is from here

The best alternatives to UK food

Produce food in an environmentally

sustainable way

I see plenty of their food and drink

produce available

Happy to pay a little more for

Countries outperforming

Rep. of Ireland (exc NI)Rank

Looking at this list of things that other people have said about origins of food and drink, can you please choose the countries/regions to which you believe each applies

New Zealand continues to outperform Rep. of Ireland across key food & drink equity measures, but Rep. of Ireland has improved on its trust and reassurance credentials. Visibility remains a key concern however.

46%

Rank

Change

39% 32%37%

63%

47%

44%

27% 23%+1

-2

+2

+4

*

2

2

2

2

2

4

3

+4

52%

+5

*New statement


53% 57% 61% 57% 64% 60% 57% 57% 56% 55% 59%


I trust food and drink from here

37% 43% 43% 43% 46% 46% 43% 45% 44% 43% 41%


The best alternatives to UK food

36% 40% 40% 41% 44% 45% 39% 46% 42% 41% 45%


Reassured if a food or drink product is from here

34% 33% 32% 34% 38% 39% 36% 37% 36% 34% 36%


Produce food in an environmentally sustainable way

Looking at this list of things that other people have said about origins of food and drink, can you please choose the countries/regions to which you believe each applies

Rep. of Ireland Equity for Food & Drink over time


23% 24% 27% 24% 31% 31% 25% 29% 25% 25% 30%


I see plenty of their food and drink produce available

14% 11% 14% 12% 16% 15% 14% 17% 15% 16% 17%


Happy to pay a little more for

If anything, endorsement of Rep. of Ireland on these key equity aspects for Food &Drink is increasing of late.

19%

46%

49%

52%

52%

58%

58%

62%

65%

Extent of missing Irish Food & Drink

Now thinking about Irish food and drink, imagine a scenario where there is significant increase in price or limitation on availability due to Brexit. To what extent would you miss each of the following, if at all?

Would miss Irish <CATEGORY> if increase in price or limitation on availability

Cheddar Cheese

Butter

Chocolate

Beef

Sausage

Yogurt

Mushrooms

Lamb

Whiskey

All Grocery Shoppers

The aforementioned affinity of British shoppers towards Irish meat , dairy products and butter is evident as these categories would be the most missed among regular buyers of these categories if an increase in price or limitation on

availability occurred as a result of Brexit.

Change v

Jan 2021

+2

+1

+2

+3

-6

+2

-4

+5

-1

56%

65%

64%

67%

72%

72%

75%Beef (n=418)

Cheddar Cheese

(n=728)

Premium Chocolate

(n=351)

Butter (n=697)

Mushrooms (n=555)

Yogurt (n=711)

Whiskey (n=91)*

Among Regular Buyers of Change v

Jan 2021

+4

+2

+2

-1

-4

-4

-5

* Caution Small Base


Thank You

UK Consumer Pulse May 2021

uk consumer tracker - bord bia

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