consumer confidence 2011

8/21/2019 Consumer Confidence 2011

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2/112 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company.

Global consumer confidence increased one index point lastquarter to 89, while Europe led confidence declines in 24 of theregions 27 measured markets, according to fourth quarter 2011global consumer confidence findings from Nielsen, a leadingglobal provider of information and insights into what consumerswatch and buy.

While Europes challenging economic conditions in the second halfof 2011 bought renewed vulnerability and fragility to consumersand financial markets globally, some of the most positive news lastquarter came from the worlds two largest economiesthe U.S.

and Chinawhere confidence rebounded to Q1 2011 levels, saidDr. Venkatesh Bala, Chief Economist at The Cambridge Group, apart of Nielsen. Buoyant domestic consumption also maintainedconfidence levels in the large emerging economies of India,Indonesia and Brazil. However, slowing GDP growth within emergingeconomies and inflationary pressures would suggest some degree ofcaution for the year ahead.

In the latest round of the survey, conducted between November23 and December 9, 2011, overall confidence levels fell in 60percent of global markets measured with confidence declinesin 35 out of 56 markets. Confidence rose in 12 markets andremained flat in nine.

The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence andSpending Intentions established in 2005, tracks consumerconfidence, major concerns and spending intentions amongmore than 28,000 Internet consumers in 56 countries. Consumerconfidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate

degrees of optimism and pessimism.

China confidence increases four points to 108

More than half (52%) describe finances as excellent/good, but 65%think it is not a good time to buy

Consumer Confidence around the world increases one point to 89

Confidence declines in 24of 27 European markets

U.S. consumer confidence index increases 6 points to 83

OVERALL CONFIDENCELEVELS FELL IN

60%OF GLOBALMARKETS MEASURED


3/11



More than half (52%) of global online consumers described theirpersonal finances for 2012 as excellent/good, up from 50 percentin Q3 2011, but 65 percent indicated it is not a good time to buy,up one percent from the previous quarter.

Overall, consumer discretionary spending will remain restrainedand cautious in the first half of 2012, said Dr. Bala. Despiteconsumers becoming more confident about their personalfinances for the year ahead, there is still a reluctance to spend,especially in the West; rising tensions in the Middle East andtheir impact on gasoline prices could further compound globalconsumer concerns and spending plans, added Dr. Bala.

Consumer concern for the economy increased as a top fearamong 18 percent of global respondentsan increase of sixpoints from last quarter, which resulted in nearly two-thirds(64%) of consumers around the world indicating they believe

they are in a recession, up from 62 percent last quarter. Agrowing number of online respondents in Asia Pacific (53%),Europe (74%), Middle East/Africa (74%) and Latin America (47%)indicated they believe they are in a recession. And while 86percent of North Americans feel they are in a recession, it wasthe only region to report an improvement from 88 percent inthird quarter.

Personal finances are improved,but spending is still restrained

Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions, Q4 2011

Personal finances are up, but good time to buy is down

GROWING NUMBER OF CONSUMERS BELIEVE THEY ARE IN A RECESSION

Not a good time

to buy52%

53%

65%Personal financesgood/excellent

Asia PacificQ4

50%Q3

47%Latin AmericaQ4

46%Q3

74%EuropeQ4

71%Q3

74%Middle East/Africa Q4

73%Q3

86%Q4

88%Q3

North America


5/11 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. 5

Boosted largely by an improved outlook in personal financesfor the year ahead, North America posted the biggest regionalquarterly gain among global regions (+5 points) to 84, whileAsia Pacific (99) and Latin American (98) were the worlds

most confident regions with quarterly increases of two andone point(s), respectively. Confidence fell by one point in theMiddle East/Africa (95), and Europe recorded its lowest regionalconfidence reading since Q1 2009 at 71 points, a quarterlydecline of three points.

India remained the worlds most optimistic market for the eighthconsecutive quarter with a one point consumer confidenceindex increase to 122, followed by Indonesia and the Philippinesat 117. Hungary was the worlds most pessimistic market at

30 index points, followed by Portugal (36) and Greece (41),where quarterly confidence levels fell seven, four and 10 points,respectively. European markets accounted for nine of the 10most depressed markets last quarter.

The biggest quarterly confidence gains last quarter came fromRomania (+10), the United States and Australia (+6), Venezuela,Philippines and Columbia (+5) and China (+4), while the steepestquarterly declines came from Taiwan (-16), Czech Republic (-12),Greece (-10) and Belgium (-9).

Regional Roundup


Asia Pacific dominates the top 10 Consumer Confidence Index scores, Europe leads the bottom

122

117

117

113

112

108

105

104

103

101

30

36

41

43

46

49

55

55

56

59

India

Indonesia

Philippines

Saudi Arabia

Brazil

China

UAE

Thailand

Australia

Malaysia

Hungary

Portugal

Greece

Croatia

South Korea

Italy

France

Spain

Japan

Romania



Consumer confidence rises in the U.S. and China

Americans saw an improvement in their personal finances for theyear ahead with nearly half (49%) saying their personal financialprospects looked good/excellent, up from 43 percent comparedto the previous quarter, which spurred a six-point consumerconfidence index jump to 83 in Q4.

While there are headwinds impacting the consumer such asweak housing, elevated commodity prices and uneven growth,recent gains in the U.S. labor market are positively impactingsentiment, although we are still well below pre-recession highs,said James Russo, VP Global Consumer Insights. Elevated levelsof long-term unemployment along with a stubbornly highpercentage of consumers reporting they have no spare cash(32%), raises a caution flag for 2012 spending. Additionally, overthe past year consumers have been drawing down savings tospend in the absence of real income and wage growth, a situationwhich will have to change in order for them to boost or evensustain their spending.

While a boost in U.S. consumer confidence is positive, theindex is still at the same level when the recession hit. There isstill a great deal of consumer angst regarding the health of oureconomy and health of consumer finances, said Todd Hale, SVPConsumer & Shopper Insights, Nielsen U.S. Across consumer

packaged goods retailing, inflationary pressures, not increasedconsumer demand, have had the biggest impact on departmentsand categories exhibiting dollar volume growth through the thirdquarter of 2011.

In China, the easing of food inflation over the past five monthshas significantly driven food prices down and adjustmentsto macro-economic policies have re-energized growth,particularly through more loans, which partly resulted in thefour point confidence climb to an index of 108, said Yan Xuan,President, Nielsen Greater China. Continued governmentand non-government investment in developing the countryswestern and northeastern regions plus less dependence onmanufacturing export in these regions is also fueling optimismamong Chinese consumers.

100

90

110

80

70

China

U.S.

Q1 Q3

2005

Q1 Q3

2006

Q1 Q3

2007

Q1 Q3

2008

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2009

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2010

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2011

+4

+6

Consumer confidence rises in the U.S. and China




Jobs and finances remain fragile andvulnerable in Europe

Consumer confidence fell in 24 out of 27 European marketsmeasured by Nielsen last quarter as the impact of the regionsdebt crisis, currency woes and Italys political and economicuncertainty sent shockwaves throughout the region and intointernational financial markets, said Dr. Bala. With the Euro

zone already slipping into recession and the introduction of newor further austerity measures due to take effect in major Europeaneconomies at the start of this year, the regions outlook for jobprospects and personal finances remains fragile and vulnerable forthe year ahead, added Dr. Bala.

In Q4 2011, less than one in four (23%) Europeans rated jobprospects as good/excellent, down from 26 percent in Q3, and28 percent from a year ago. And while job prospects are lookingmore upbeat among Germans, where more than half (52%) ratedemployment opportunities as good/excellent (up 11 percentyear-on-year), job prospects continue to be bleak for recession-hitSouthern European markets of Italy, Greece and Spain.

Germanys economic situation is stable on a relatively high level,said Ivar Michaelsen, Group Managing Director, Nielsen Germany.German consumers feel concerned regarding the economicsituation in general because of the ongoing Euro crisis, but they donot expect direct effects on their personal situation for the moment.

As a consequence, German consumers are at this stage relativelyconfident about their personal perspectives with regard to their jobs,personal finances and buying intentions for the year ahead.

Italy, Belgium, Czech Republic, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Portugal,Spain and Croatia all recorded a six-year confidence low last quarter.In Hungary, a perfect storm of factors is contributing to low anddeclining consumer confidence, said Judit SzalokyToth, ManagingDirector, Nielsen Hungary. Rising taxes and unpredictablegovernment regulations coupled with declining disposable incomehas fueled insecurity and pessimism among consumers.

In Spain, a favorable outlook for job prospects fell to 10 percentin Q4down from 25 percent the prior year. In Italy, good/

excellent employment sentiment fell ten points year-on-year toeight percent last quarter. And in Greece, a positive job outlookdeclined to four percent from 11 percent last year.

Consumer confidence fell in 24 of 27 European markets measured


No change

Increase

Decrease

89

59

9298

85848377 76

7271 706968666560

555549

434136

30

90 8887

Norway

Switzer

land

Austria

Denma

rk

Sweden

Germany

Nether

lands

Russia

Turkey

Belgium

Finland

Poland

United

Kingdom

Ukraine

Lithuan

ia

Latvia

Estonia

CzechR

epublic

Ireland

Romania

France

Spain

Italy

Croatia

Greece

Portugal

Hungar

y



Asia Pacific continues as the most

optimistic region

Asia Pacific continues as the most optimistic region,boasting seven of the top 10 highest index scores.Confidence rose in nearly half (six of 14) of the Asia Pacificmarkets in the Nielsen survey, fell in five and remained flat

in threeMalaysia, Singapore and Japan. Taiwans decline of16 points to an index of 71, the lowest point in 24 monthsand approaching levels following the 2008 global financialcrisis, was most notable.

Indias one point consumer confidence index increaseto 122 is the highest score of 56 countries measured,followed by Indonesia and the Philippines with an indexof 117. The stabilization of Indias consumer confidencemetric is encouraging and the retention of the top spotglobally reminds us of the inherent strength of the Indianeconomy, the savings mindset of the Indian consumer, andthe positivity of consumer sentiment which has likely beenhelped by the recent cooling of inflationary pressure, saidJustin Sargent, Managing Director, Nielsen India.

The sharp drop in Taiwanese consumer confidence is mainlydriven by a strong decline in job prospects and a rise inconcern for the current economic environment, said EmilieDarolles, Managing Director, Nielsen Taiwan. In the shortterm, we expect consumers willingness to spend to slowdown and the propensity to save to increase. The upcomingChinese New Year Festival will likely help boost some of thedomestic consumption in Q1, but Taiwanese consumers willcontinue to be conservative in 2012.

35%

36%

30%

19%

35%

26%

64%

33%

13%

7%

2%

29%

31%

22%

19%

28%

28%

48%

19%

10%

16%

2%

Putting intoSavings

Holidays/Vacations

New Clothes

Out-of-HomeEntertainment

Pay off Debts/Credit Cards/ Loans

New TechnologyProducts

HomeImprovement/

Decorating

Investing in Stocks/Mutual Funds

I Have NoSpare Cash

Retirement Fund

Dont Know/Undecided

Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence andSpending Intentions, Q4 2011

Compared to the global average, Asia Pacific consumersplan to save, invest and spend more

Asia Pacific

How to utilize spare cash after covering essential living expenses

Global Average



Latin America reports mixed results

In Latin America, Brazil recorded the highest consumerconfidence in the region with an index of 112the fifthhighest score of 56 countries measured. Confidence rose fivepoints in Colombia and Venezuela, fell in Peru (-4), Mexico(-2), and Argentina (-1) and remained flat in Chile. LatinAmericans are the most confident in regards to personal

finances in 2012 with 66 percent describing their outlook asgood/excellent for the coming year.

Brazil continues to experience gradual economic growthwith a dip in unemployment, inflation control, an expansionof credit and political stability, said Eduardo Ragasol,Managing Director, Nielsen Brazil. More Brazilians todayhave the opportunity to buy products that were previouslyonly accessible to the higher social classes, which iscontributing to the optimism in the country.

Positive economic results are driving Colombias increasedconsumer confidence, said Felipe Urdaneta, CountryManager, Nielsen Colombia. Gross Domestic Product(GDP) growth is up 7.7 percent in third quarterthe highestin last five years, unemployment is going down for the thirdconsecutive month and Nielsen fast-moving consumergoods unit sales increased five percent last quarter.

Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and

Spending Intentions, Q4 2011

In Latin America, at-home entertainment takes

preference over going out

Actions thisyear

Money-saving tactics for groceries, telephone expenses

and electricity will continue

Will continuenext year

18%

50%

33%

13%

37%

39%

46%

45%

38%

25%

24%

19%

29%

36%

6%

13%21%

5%

16%

19%

11%

15%

26%

32%

36%

15%

7%

14%

13%

9%

12%

5%

Use My CarLess Often

Cut Down on At-homeEntertainment

Cut Down on Out-of-HomeEntertainment

Cut Down onTake-Away Meals

Cut Down on Smoking

Spend Less onNew Clothes

Switch to CheaperGrocery Brands

Cut Down onTelephone Expenses

Cut Down/Buy CheaperBrands of Alcohol

Look for Better Dealson Loans, Credit Cards, etc

Delay Replacement ofMajor Household Items

Delay Upgrading Technology,e.g. Pc, Mobile, Etc

I Have Taken OtherActions Not Listed Above

Try to Save on Gasand Electricity

Cut Down onHolidays/Short Breaks

Cut Out Annual Vacation



Job security is a top concern in Middle East / Africa

In the six Middle East/African markets covered by the Nielsensurvey, confidence rose in Pakistan (+3), fell in Saudi Arabia (-7),Egypt (-5), Israel (-1), and remained flat in United Arab Emiratesand South Africa. The top concern for one in five consumers inthe Middle East/Africa is job securityfive points higher than theglobal average. Worries over political stability and the economyare two other top concerns among 12 percent of respondents each.

Political turmoil in the Middle East and doubts towards futureoil demand, which is indispensible for the Saudi economy, andsubsequent austerity measures has led to depressed consumersentiments in Saudi Arabia, said Arslan Ashraf, Managing Director,Nielsen Saudi Arabia. However, through hefty stimulus packages,the Saudi government is making efforts to insulate the economyfrom these global and regional developments.

Egypts turbulent political year in 2011, led to rising food pricesand a slide in foreign reserves as tourism and export businessessuffered from the dramatic current events, said Ram MohanRao, Managing Director, Nielsen Egypt. Hopes and fears amongEgyptians will prevail in 2012 as elections for a new civilianpresident will be in June 2012.

JOB SECURITY


Job security is a top concern among one in five consumers in the Middle East/Africa

THE ECONOMY

POLITICAL STABILITY

INCREASING FOOD PRICES

CHILDRENS EDUCATION

AND/OR WELFARE

PARENTS WELFARE

AND HAPPINESS

WORK/LIFE BALANCE

DEBT

TERRORISM

CRIME

20%

12%

12%

6%

6%

5%

5%

5%

4%

4%


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For more information visit www.nielsen.com

Country abbreviations:Argentina ARAustralia AUAustria ATBelgium BEBrazil BRCanada CA

China CNChile CLColombia COCroatia HRCzech Republic CZDenmark DKEgypt EGEstonia EEFinland FIFrance FRGermany DEGreece GRHong Kong HK

Hungary HUIndia INIndonesia IDIreland IE

Israel ILItaly ITJapan JPLatvia LVLithuania LTMalaysia MY

Mexico MXNetherlands NLNew Zealand NZNorway NOPakistan PKPeru PEPhilippines PHPoland PLPortugal PTRomania RORussia RUSaudi Arabia SASingapore SG

South Africa SASouth Korea KOSpain ESSweden SE

About the Nielsen Global Survey

The Nielsen Global Survey was conductedbetween November 23 and December 9,2011 and polled more than 28,000 onlineconsumers in 56 countries throughoutAsia Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the

Middle East, Africa and North America.The sample has quotas based on ageand sex for each country based on theirInternet users, and is weighted to berepresentative of Internet consumersand has a maximum margin of errorof 0.6%. This Nielsen survey is basedon the behavior of respondents withonline access only. Internet penetrationrates vary by country. Nielsen uses aminimum reporting standard of 60percent Internet penetration or 10Monline population for survey inclusion. The

Nielsen Global Survey, which includes theGlobal Consumer Confidence Index, wasestablished in 2005.

About Nielsen

Nielsen Holdings N.V. (NYSE: NLSN) isa global information and measurementcompany with leading market positionsin marketing and consumer information,television and other media measurement,

online intelligence, mobile measurement,trade shows and related properties.Nielsen has a presence in approximately100 countries, with headquarters in NewYork, USA and Diemen, the Netherlands.For more information, visitwww.nielsen.com.

Switzerland CHTaiwan TWThailand THTurkey TRUnited Arab Emirates AEGreat Britain GB

Ukraine UAUnited States USVenezuela VEVietnam VN

Region abbreviations:AP Asia PacificEU EuropeLA Latin AmericaMEAP Middle East, Africa,

PakistanNA North America

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. All rights reserved. Nielsen and the Nielsen logo are

trademarks or registered trademarks of CZT/ACN Trademarks L L C Other product and service

consumer confidence 2011

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