Climate Test BedClimate Test BedYesterday, Today, TomorrowYesterday, Today, Tomorrow

Fiona HorsfallFiona Horsfall

Director, Climate Test BedDirector, Climate Test Bed

NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPCNOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC

4th Annual CTB Science Advisory Board MeetingESSIC University of Maryland

College Park, MD September 11-12, 2008

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OutlineOutline

• History History • Current ActivitiesCurrent Activities• Plans for the FuturePlans for the Future• At this Meeting…….At this Meeting…….

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CTB HistoryCTB History

• Established in 2004 jointly by NCEP and NOAA Climate Program Office

NOAA ClimateForecast

Operations

NOAA ClimateForecast

Operations

Climate Climate Test BedTest Bed

Climate Climate Test BedTest Bed

Climate Community

Climate Community

Research &Development

Research &Development

Vision– To significantly increase the accuracy,

reliability, and scope of NOAA's suite of operational climate forecast products to meet the needs of a diverse user community.

Vision– To significantly increase the accuracy,

reliability, and scope of NOAA's suite of operational climate forecast products to meet the needs of a diverse user community.

Mission– To accelerate the transition of scientific

advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services.

Mission– To accelerate the transition of scientific

advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services.

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CTB HistoryCTB History

• Year 1 (2005)Year 1 (2005)– CTB Management Team CTB Management Team

• Wayne Higgins (CPC) Wayne Higgins (CPC) • Hualu Pan (EMC)Hualu Pan (EMC)• Melvyn Gelman (CPC)Melvyn Gelman (CPC)• Ming Ji (CPO)Ming Ji (CPO)

– Climate Science Team Climate Science Team • To provide guidance for CFS improvements, computer To provide guidance for CFS improvements, computer

usage, experimentsusage, experiments– Transition teamsTransition teams

• To conduct To conduct experiments*experiments* and coordinate applications and coordinate applications activitiesactivities

– BoardsBoards• Oversight BoardOversight Board• Science Advisory BoardScience Advisory Board

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CTB HistoryCTB History

* ExperimentsExperiments– In-house use of the main frame In-house use of the main frame

(1/3 of the research computer) (1/3 of the research computer) – Analysis of CFS simulations and forecasts Analysis of CFS simulations and forecasts – Consolidation of statistical and dynamical Consolidation of statistical and dynamical

models models – Climate product development Climate product development – All projects vetted and ranked by Climate All projects vetted and ranked by Climate

Science Team (panel of internal and external Science Team (panel of internal and external climate experts)climate experts)

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CTB HistoryCTB History

• Year 2 (2006)Year 2 (2006)– 3 funded projects (CFS Improvements) with transition 3 funded projects (CFS Improvements) with transition

goal FY08goal FY08– Continuation of internal experimentsContinuation of internal experiments

• Year 3 (2007)Year 3 (2007)– 1 additional funded project (Climate Products) with 1 additional funded project (Climate Products) with

transition goal FY09transition goal FY09– Joint CTB – COLA Seminar Series (18 seminars)Joint CTB – COLA Seminar Series (18 seminars)– Continuation of internal experiments, but decreasingContinuation of internal experiments, but decreasing– Fraction of CTB computer time used for CFS Fraction of CTB computer time used for CFS

reanalysisreanalysis– Support CPC-RISA partnership for climate product Support CPC-RISA partnership for climate product

improvement/developmentimprovement/development

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CTB TodayCTB Today

• Year 4 (2008)Year 4 (2008)– New management teamNew management team

• Fiona Horsfall (CPC) Fiona Horsfall (CPC) • Hualu Pan (EMC)Hualu Pan (EMC)• Mike Halpert (CPC)Mike Halpert (CPC)• Chet Ropelewski (CPO)Chet Ropelewski (CPO)

– 6 new funded projects with transition goals of FY09 (2) 6 new funded projects with transition goals of FY09 (2) and FY10 (4) and FY10 (4)

– Support StaffSupport Staff• 7.05 equivalent FTEs 7.05 equivalent FTEs • 5.5 equivalent Contractors5.5 equivalent Contractors

– Computing resourcesComputing resources• 1/3 NCEP research computer1/3 NCEP research computer• Fraction of CTB computer time used for CFS ReanalysisFraction of CTB computer time used for CFS Reanalysis

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BoardsBoards

Oversight Board

• NCEP CPC Director– Wayne Higgins, Chair

• NCEP EMC Director– Steve Lord

• ESRL Deputy Director– Randy Dole, Acting

• GFDL Director– Vacant

• IRI Director– Steve Zebiak

• NCPO Representative– Rick Rosen

• NASA Earth Sciences Director– Franco Einaudi

• Appropriate representatives of other stakeholders (e.g. NASA Earth Sciences Director)

Oversight Board

• NCEP CPC Director– Wayne Higgins, Chair

• NCEP EMC Director– Steve Lord

• ESRL Deputy Director– Randy Dole, Acting

• GFDL Director– Vacant

• IRI Director– Steve Zebiak

• NCPO Representative– Rick Rosen

• NASA Earth Sciences Director– Franco Einaudi

• Appropriate representatives of other stakeholders (e.g. NASA Earth Sciences Director)

Science Advisory Board

• T. Barnston (IRI)

• T. Busalacchi (ESSIC, University

of Maryland) - Chair

• J. Kinter (COLA)

• M. Harrison (UKMO)

• E. Harrison (PMEL)

• Tony Rosati (GFDL)

• Joe Tribbia (NCAR)

• D. Lettenmaier (University of

Washington)

• K. Redmond (DRI)

• M. Suarez (GMAO)

Science Advisory Board

• T. Barnston (IRI)

• T. Busalacchi (ESSIC, University

of Maryland) - Chair

• J. Kinter (COLA)

• M. Harrison (UKMO)

• E. Harrison (PMEL)

• Tony Rosati (GFDL)

• Joe Tribbia (NCAR)

• D. Lettenmaier (University of

Washington)

• K. Redmond (DRI)

• M. Suarez (GMAO)

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CTB TodayCTB Today

• ProjectsProjects– 10 funded total in FY08 10 funded total in FY08 – Anticipate 3-6 additional FY09 projectsAnticipate 3-6 additional FY09 projects

• Other activitiesOther activities– Expanded CTB Seminar Series (Oct 2008)Expanded CTB Seminar Series (Oct 2008)– Ongoing experimentsOngoing experiments– Ongoing support for CPC-RISA partnershipOngoing support for CPC-RISA partnership

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CTB TodayCTB Today

• Focus AreasFocus Areas– CFS ImprovementsCFS Improvements

• Dynamics and physicsDynamics and physics• Ocean-atmosphere-land-cryosphereOcean-atmosphere-land-cryosphere

– MME Prediction SystemMME Prediction System• Consolidation techniquesConsolidation techniques• VerificationVerification• InternationalInternational• NationalNational

– Climate Forecast ProductsClimate Forecast Products• Drought (NIDIS)Drought (NIDIS)• GIS, extreme events, etc.GIS, extreme events, etc.

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CTB in the FutureCTB in the Future

• CPO plans to move CTB in the Climate Goal CPO plans to move CTB in the Climate Goal – from from Climate Service DevelopmentClimate Service Development

– to to Climate Research and Modeling Climate Research and Modeling

• Support for growing CTB and expanding Support for growing CTB and expanding activitiesactivities– Augmented R2O grants processAugmented R2O grants process

– O2R (Model Test Facility)O2R (Model Test Facility)

– Enhance understanding of weather-climate linkages to Enhance understanding of weather-climate linkages to improve intraseasonal-to-interannual predictionimprove intraseasonal-to-interannual prediction

– A Visiting Scientist ProgramA Visiting Scientist Program

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CTB in the FutureCTB in the Future

Proposed Expanded VisionProposed Expanded Vision– An enhanced NOAA operational climate product suite An enhanced NOAA operational climate product suite

through improved scientific understanding, skillful through improved scientific understanding, skillful

predictions, and products that meet the needs of a diverse predictions, and products that meet the needs of a diverse

user community.user community.

Proposed Expanded VisionProposed Expanded Vision– An enhanced NOAA operational climate product suite An enhanced NOAA operational climate product suite

through improved scientific understanding, skillful through improved scientific understanding, skillful

predictions, and products that meet the needs of a diverse predictions, and products that meet the needs of a diverse

user community.user community.

Proposed Expanded MissionProposed Expanded Mission– To increase understanding of climate processes to improve

predictions and accelerate the transition of research

advances from the external climate community to improve

NOAA climate forecast products and services.

Proposed Expanded MissionProposed Expanded Mission– To increase understanding of climate processes to improve

predictions and accelerate the transition of research

advances from the external climate community to improve

NOAA climate forecast products and services.

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CTB in the FutureCTB in the Future

R2O O2R VSPScience

Challenges

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CTB in the FutureCTB in the Future

• Funded projects– CFS improvements– MME– Climate Forecast Products,

including development using next-generation reanalyses and reforecasts

• Support staff for funded projects

• Computer resources• Satellite-retrieved data

validations of CFS• Support for and expansion

of CPC partnerships for product development

R2O

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Table of Contents

Executive Summary 21.0 Background and Purpose 3 2.0 Climate Forecast Products for Decision Support 4 3.0 Implementation Strategy 7 4.0 Future Priorities 10 5.0 Budget 10

APPENDIX A. Guidelines for Adding Models 11APPENDIX B. CPC-RISA Workplans 12APPENDIX C. Climate Products List 14 APPENDIX D. Collaborative Transition Projects 17 APPENDIX E. Strategic Challenges 18APPENDIX F. Acronyms 21 APPENDIX G. Contact Information 22

Strategy for Developing Climate Forecast Products in Cooperation with

Partners

CTB in the FutureCTB in the Future

• CPC / CTB White PaperCPC / CTB White Paper• Partnerships can help Partnerships can help

us reach users to us reach users to solicit requirements / solicit requirements / needsneeds

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CTB in the FutureCTB in the Future

• Model Test Facility

– Technical and scientific support

– Facilitate interaction of grant recipients with NCEP personnel

– Annual User's Workshop on CFS

– Post-doc stationed at GFDL to focus on evaluating CFS physics imported within the GFDL modeling system, comparing

it with GFDL in-house alternatives

O2R

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CTB in the FutureCTB in the Future

• Visiting Scientist Program

– For external scientists and their students

– Work for an extended period of time at NCEP side-by-side with NCEP scientists

– To speed the transition of their research into NCEP forecast operations

VSP

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CTB in the FutureCTB in the Future

• Funded projects to support better understanding of weather-climate linkages leading to improved ISI predictions– Improved scientific understanding

and modeling of tropical convection and its interactions with the mid-latitude circulation

Daily Madden-Julian Oscillation Indices

Science Challenges

Infrared global composite

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• Review of current projectsReview of current projects• Overview of new projectsOverview of new projects• Peek at FY09 proposal processPeek at FY09 proposal process• Review of issues raised during last Review of issues raised during last

year’s seminar seriesyear’s seminar series• Discussion of CTB Science PlansDiscussion of CTB Science Plans

At this MeetingAt this Meeting

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• CTB seeks advice of SAB on future CTB seeks advice of SAB on future directionsdirections– Proposed strategic vision and missionProposed strategic vision and mission– Proposed overarching scientific direction Proposed overarching scientific direction

and structureand structure– Science Plans from current focus areasScience Plans from current focus areas– Other issues?Other issues?

At this MeetingAt this Meeting