Climate Change And Its Effects On Health

Presenter : Dr. MonalishaFacilitator : Dr HemaModerator : Dr S. Nagesh

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Plan for presentation• Introduction• Problem statement• Evidence of climate change• Causes of climate change• Evidence for human caused climate change• Indian Scenario• Pathways for climate to affect health• Potential health impacts of climate change• International environmental Agenda• Stages of adaptation• Options for adaptations to reduce the health impacts of climate

change• BRACE framework• India for Climate Issues• Conclusion

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IntroductionClimate change  is a significant & lasting change

in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years.

• Change in average weather conditions, or in Distribution of weather around average conditions (i.e., more or fewer extreme weather events).

• Changes in many aspects of weather, such as Wind patterns, Precipitation & Severe weather events.

• Far-reaching and/or unpredictable environmental, social and economic consequences.

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Problem statement  Since the early 20th century, Earth's mean surface

temperature has increased by about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F), with about two-thirds of the increase occurring since 1980

• Developing Countries & Small Island Nations will be the first & hardest hit by this phenomena.

• Each year, about 800 000 people die from causes attributable to it.

• 1.8 million die from diarrhoea ( due to lack of access to clean water supply and sanitation & from poor hygiene)

• 3.5 million die from malnutrition.• 60 000 die in natural disasters.

Floods

Malaria

Diarrhea

Malnutrition

020406080100120 2 4 6 8 10

DALYs (millions)Deaths (thousands)

2000

2020

Estimated Death and DALYs Attributable to Climate Change

Campbell-Lendrum et al., 2003

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Physical evidence for & examples of climatic change

1. Temperature measurements 2. Melting of Glaciers3. Arctic sea ice loss4. Sea level change5. Others

Pollen analysis Precipitation Ice cores

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May Entail Changes in Variance, as Well as Changes in Mean

1)Temperature measurements

Source: IPCC,2012

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Source: WHO, 2003: Climate change and human health: risks and responses.

Change in surface temperature

         Warming trend over the 20 th century

9

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091

Year

Ch

ang

e in

Glo

bal

Tem

per

atu

res

wrt

196

1-90

(°C

)

Source: IPCC, 2001

Global mean temperature & future projections

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Global mean temperature has increased by 0.74°C between 1906 and 2005.

Source: IPCC,2012

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2) Melting of GlaciersAmong the most sensitive indicators of climate change. Their size is determined by a mass balance between snow input & melt output.

Source: WGMS &NSIDC

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Source: NASA

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3) Arctic Sea Ice Loss

1993

Decline in Arctic sea ice, both in extent and thickness, over the last several decades is further evidence for rapid climate change. Satellite observations show that Arctic sea ice is now declining at a rate of 11.5 percent per decade, relative to the 1979 to 2000 average.

2012

NASA

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Arctic sea ice level

This time series, based on satellite data, shows the annual Arctic sea ice level.

Source: NASA

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4) Sea level riseGlobal sea level has risen at the average rate of 1.8mm/yr during 1961-2003, the rate has been faster during 1993-2003 (@3.1 mm/yr)

Source: IPCC,2012

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5) Other FactorsAnalysis of air bubbles in Antarctic Ice sheet: CO2  &

atmospheric concentration of the CH4 & N2O were constant until they started to rise in the industrial era.

Precipitation: Global terrestrial net primary precipitation increased by 6% from 1982 to 1999, with the largest portion of that increase in tropical ecosystems, then decreased by 1% from 2000 to 2009.

Palynological Studies : Changes in the type of pollen found in different layers of sediment in lakes, bogs, or river deltas indicate changes in plant communities. These changes are often a sign of a changing climate

17

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Causes of change In climateInternal forcing

mechanismsOcean

variability

Life

External forcing mechanism

Human activities

Solar output

Magnetic field

Volcanism

Plate tectonics

Orbital variations

13/04/2023 19Source: IPCC,2012

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Evidence for human caused climate

change 1. Greenhouse gases have increased and their

warming properties are well-established.

2. Historical estimates of past climate changes suggest that the recent changes in global surface temperature are unusual.

3. Computer-based climate models are unable to replicate the observed warming unless human greenhouse gas emissions are included.

4. Natural forces alone (such as solar and volcanic activity) cannot explain the observed warming.

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Anthropogenic greenhouse gases

• Burning of fossil fuels & deforestation lead to higher CO2 .• Livestock enteric fermentation & manure management, paddy 

rice farming, land use and wetland changes, & covered vented landfill emissions etc leading to higher CH4.

• CFCs in refrigeration systems, & halons in fire suppression systems

• Agricultural activities, including the use of fertilizers, that lead to higher N2O.

Gas Contribution (%)Water vapor 36 – 72%

Carbon dioxide 9 – 26%

Methane 4 – 9% Ozone 3 – 7% CFCs <1%

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  Earth's annual carbon cycle

Human activities emit about 9 Gt of carbon each year. About 4 Gt of this human-contributed carbon remain in the atmosphere; 3 Gt are taken up by natural terrestrial processes, and another 2 Gt are removed by the ocean (Canadell et al. 2007).

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   Emissions Exceed Nature’s CO2 Drain

Emissions of CO2 due to fossil fuel burning and cement manufacture areIncreasing, but capacity of “sinks” that take up CO2—e.g. plants on land and in the ocean—are decreasing. Atmospheric CO2 is increasing as a result

 Source: National Research Council, 2011a

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Increasing greenhouse gases trap more heat

Higher concentration of CO2 & other green house gases trap more infrared rays in stratosphere. The additional heat further warms atmosphere & earth’s surface.

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Indian ScenarioIndia is not immune from the impact of

global warming and climate change. • Any sharp rise in sea level could have

a considerable impact given its low coastline and important cities located on the coast as also states having large low lying areas.

• According to a report, the total CO2 equivalent emissions in 2007 were 1,612,362.00 in thousands of metric tones.

INDIA Second National Communication to UNFCCC 2012

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 • Surface air temperature indicates a

significant warming of 0.4°C for 100 years. Increase in mean annual temperature by 3°C to 6°C by the end of the 21st century.

• Glaciers in Himalayas are receding at a rapid pace.

• There is a projected increase in rainfall by 15-40 % by the end of the 21st century with high regional variability.

• The warming is projected to be more pronounced over land areas, with the maximum increase over northern India. The warming is also relatively greater in winter and post-monsoon seasons.

Indian Scenario

INDIA Second National Communication to UNFCCC 2012

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There are some major sources of GHG’s emission in India

Source:India Second National communication to UNFCCINDIA Second National Communication to UNFCCC 2012

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Climate Change & HealthFossil Fuel Use, Development & Population Growth (Increased Emission of green house gases )

Climate Change (Earth warming rapidly)

Serious Effects On The Environment

Fundamental determinants of health: Air, Water, Food, Shelter & Freedom From Disease.

Serious Effects On Human Lives And Health

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Corvalan et al., 2003

Pathways from Driving Forces to Potential Health Impacts

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Pathways for Weather to Affect Health: Example = Diarrheal Disease

TemperatureHumidityPrecipitation

Distal Causes Proximal Causes Infection Hazards Health Outcome

Living conditions(water supply andsanitation)

Food sources andhygiene practices

Survival/ replicationof pathogens in theenvironment

Contamination ofwater sources

Rate of personto person contact

Consumption ofcontaminated water

Consumption ofcontaminated food

Contact withinfected persons

Incidence of mortality andmorbidityattributableto diarrhea

Vulnerability(e.g. age andnutrition)

Contamination of food sources

WHO

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Major health consequences of climate change

1) Agricultural sector extremely sensitive Rising temperatures & more frequent droughts and floods compromise food security Malnutrition

2) Frequent extreme weather events (storms and floods) Deaths & Injuries Outbreaks of diseases, such as Cholera.

3) Both scarcities & excess of water Diarrhoeal disease

4) Heat-waves , especially in urban “heat islands” directly increase morbidity & mortality, mainly in elderly people with cardiovascular or respiratory disease. Also increase in ground-level ozone and hasten the onset of the pollen season Asthma attacks

5) Changing temperatures & patterns of rainfall alter the geographical distribution of insect vectors Vector borne diseases (Malaria and dengue are of greatest public health concern.)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 WHO

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Potential Climate Change Health Effects

• Heat-Related & Extreme events related Morbidity and Mortality

• Asthma, Respiratory Allergies, and Airway Diseases

• Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke• Vectorborne and Zoonotic Diseases• Foodborne Diseases and Nutrition• Waterborne Diseases• Mental Health &Neurological Diseases

and Disorders• Cancer• Social Impacts

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Heat & extreme weather -Related Morbidity and Mortality

Heat waves, or extreme heat events, are characterized by several days of temperatures greater than 90° F; warm, stagnant air masses; and consecutive nights with higher–than-usual minimum temperatures.

Account for more deaths annually than hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, and earthquakes combined.

Extreme weather events, sea-level rise, destruction of local economies, resource scarcity, and associated conflict due to climate change are predicted to displace millions of people worldwide. (200 million people worldwide by 2050)

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Respiratory Diseases

Air quality affected through several pathways – increases in regional ambient concentrations of ozone,

PM2.5s fine particles, & dust.– Increase production & allergenicity of aeroallergens

(pollen mold & spores) Aeroallergens act with other harmful air pollution worsen

respiratory disease (Allergic rhinitis asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease )

Ozone causes direct, reversible lung injury; increases premature mortality; worsens respiratory diseases such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD); and may cause lasting lung damage.

PM2.5s are associated with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, including asthma, COPD, and cardiac dysrhythmias

Global rise in asthma is an early health effect of climate change.

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Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke

• Dysrhythmias are primarily associated with extreme cold as well as heat.

• Stroke incidence increases with increasing temperature.  

• Ozone are also associated with acute myocardial infarction.

• Particulate matter associated with systemic inflammation, deranged coagulation , thrombosis, blood vessel dysfunction atherosclerotic disease, compromised heart function, deep venous thromboses, & pulmonary embolism.

• Increased burden of PM2.5 is associated with increased hospital admissions and mortality from cardiovascular disease, as well as ischemic heart disease

• Elderly and isolated individuals are at greatest risk.

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Vector-borne and Zoonotic Diseases

Distribution of vectors will change arising from:• Increasing temperature• Changing rainfall• Cyclones, flooding • Changes in animal host/reservoir populations• Rising sea levels • Extreme tides • Loss of coastal margins

Malaria and dengue fever to re-emerge.Introduction & spread of new agents, such as West

Nile virus.Some VBZD agents like Lyme disease & Hantavirus,

which show evidence of seasonality & the range of these diseases could change with a changing climate

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Food borne diseases

• Increased occurrence of  Vibrio infection, especially seafood-borne disease associated with V. vulnificus & V. parahaemolyticus.

• Ocean acidification also lead to more virulent strains of existing pathogens & emergence of new pathogens.

• Drought encourage crop pests such as aphids, locusts, and whiteflies, as well as the spread of the mould Aspergillus flavus & thereby exacerbate malnutrition, poverty, and the need for human migration.

• Greater use of herbicides, fungicides, & insecticides, resulting in potential immediate hazards to farm workers

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Waterborne disease• Increased risk from the:

a)Concentration of nutrient and chemical contaminants

b)Formation of toxic algal bloomc)Surface water contamination with

human waste d)Changes in ocean and coastal

ecosystemse) Changes in ph, salinity f) Contaminant runoff, leaching of

arsenic, fluoride, and nitrates from fertilizers & lead contamination

g)Water security.• Severe outbreaks of cholera.

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Mental Health

– Anxiety and depression– Post traumatic stress disorderInsecurity– Grief– Stress, self harm and possible suicide– Drug and alcohol misuse– Impacts on individuals, communities– Loss of social cohesion– Dislocation “Solastalgia”. – Specific impacts on children, women and elderly

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Neurological diseases Exposure to neurotoxins (eg. domoic acid ) in

seafood, fresh & marine waters, pesticides & herbicide effects & heavy metals leads to onset and exacerbation

• Amnesia,

• Numbness,

• Neurological deficits • Learning disabilities• Liver damage, • Skin and eye irritation, • Respiratory paralysis, • PD- and AD-like symptoms, • Epilepsy.

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Cancers• Leaching of toxic chemicals and heavy

metals from storage sites & contamination of water with chemicals.

• Depletion of stratospheric ozone resulting in increased UV radiation exposure increased risk of skin cancers (BCC & SCC) & cataracts.

•  Increased UV radiation with certain polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) phototoxicity & DNA damage.

Social ImpactsLifestyle and behaviour are likely to be affected in the following ways:– Increases in crime - particularly

involving aggression – Accidents - workplace and traffic –Decline in physical health –Hot nights may cause sleep

deprivation– Recreational opportunities -

changes to exercise patterns – Changes in alcohol consumption – Stress– Lack of cold water- reduced

ability to cool down

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International environment agenda• 1972 Club of Rome Limits to Growth .• 1972 UN World Conference on the Human Environment.• 1987 World Commission on Environment and Development

“Our Common Future”

• WSSD. [World Summit on Sustainable Development] Rio 1992– Framework Conventions on Climate Change, Biodiversity

and others.– Agenda 21

• 1997 Kyoto Protocol• WSSD - Johannesburg 2002 [Rio+10]

– UN Kofi Annan proposed five key areas for particular focus:– WEHAB [Water, Energy, Health, Agriculture, Biodiversity]

• 2005 Kyoto Protocol comes into force. US opts out. • 2008 : Protecting health from the adverse effects of climate

change• 2010 : United Nation Climate Change Conference Cancun,

Mexico• 2011 : United Nation Climate Change Conference Durban,

South Africa• 2012 : Doha Climate Gateway

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Stages of Adaptation

• Primary – prevent onset of health impact

• Secondary – preventative measures taken in response to early evidence of impact

• Tertiary – actions to lessen the health effects

Extreme rainfall and flooding Prevent/reduce  

flooding

Overflow of waste from septic tanks into flood waters

               Prevent/reduce     overflow of  waste

Human contact with flood water                    Avoid human 

contact with water

Gastro intestinal diseases Correct medical     

treatment

DEC

REAS

ING

EFF

ECTI

VEN

ESS

Options for Adaptations to Reduce the Health Impacts of Climate Change

Health Outcome

Legislative Technical Educational-advisory

Cultural & Behavioral

Thermal stress

Building guidelines

Housing, public buildings, urban planning, air conditioning

Early warning systems

Clothing, siesta

Extreme weather events

Planning laws, economic incentives for building

Urban planning, storm shelters

Early warning systems

Use of storm shelters

Vector-borne diseases

Vector control, vaccination, impregnated bednets, sustainable surveillance, prevention & control programmes

Health education

Water storage practices

Water-borne diseases

Watershed protection laws, water quality regulation

Screening for pathogens, improved water treatment & sanitation

Boil water alerts

Washing hands and other behavior, use of pit latrines

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oStop deforestation/plant forestsoReplace regular bulbs with compact fluorescent light (CFL) 

oProduce more fuel-efficient vehicles & Reduce vehicle use.

oRecycle more oImprove energy-efficiency in buildingsoDevelop carbon capture and storage processes

oTriple nuclear poweroIncrease solar poweroImprove soil carbon management

strategies

Adaptive Options to reduce Global warming

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CARBON FOOTPRINT • Carbon Footprint is the sum of all

emissions of, CO2 which was induced by a person’s activity in the time period of year.

• It is usually expressed in equivalent tones of carbon dioxide. It is a very powerful tool to understand the impact of personal behavior on global warming.

• Constant monitoring of ones carbon foorprint is essential.

Carbon Credits• A carbon credit is a generic term for any tradable

certificate or permit representing the right to emit one tone of carbon or carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2

-e).• They are a component of national and international

attempts to mitigate the growth in concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs).

• Led to the establishment of carbon market all across the world.

• They can be sold within a country and between the countries. The value of one CER in Indian Rupees is about Rs. 1600

• To combat climate changes globally, Kyoto Protocol was created committing to reduce GHGs Emissions by 5.2% & improve Energy Efficiency in the period 2008-12.

.

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Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) Framework

It is for public health agencies to help them develop strategies and programs to confront the health implications of climate change

There are five sequential steps • Step 1: Forecasting Climate Impacts and

Assessing Vulnerabilities.• Step 2: Projecting the Disease Burden. • Step 3: Assessing Public Health Interventions.• Step 4: Developing and Implementing a

Climate and Health Adaptation Plan.• Step 5: Evaluating Impact and Improving

Quality of Activities step for the Framework.

Source: CDC Atlanta

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India for Climate Issues

• Solar Mission to increase the share of this energy for decentralized distribution and to create affordable and convenient solar power systems.

• Enhanced Energy Efficiency to introduce cost effectiveness and shift to energy efficient appliances.

• Sustainable Habitats to optimize energy application in large building & efficient urban waste management.

• Conserve water & ensure equitable distribution between States & areas.

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India for Climate Issues• Sustaining the Himalayan Eco System by

safeguarding the Himalayan Glacier.• Mission for Green India by undertaking a

forestation of 6 million hectares to reach the National target of 33% green cover.

• Sustainable Agriculture by developing thermal resistance crops and supported by Bio-technology, geo-spatia technology and IT

• Strategic Knowledge developement to fund high quality and focused research on climate change.

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Conclusion

• The diverse, widespread, long-term and inequitable distribution of health risks makes climate change a truly global challenge, calling for an unprecedented degree of partnership.

• An effective response will require actions from across society: from individuals, the health sector, and community and political leaders.

• Sharing of responsibilities between the populations

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References• INDIA Second National Communication to UNFCCC 2012 Government of

India ,Ministry of Environment & Forests:Paryavaran Bhawan, CGO Complex,Lodi Road, New Delhi-3.

• IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change),2006. IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, IPCC

• 2009 Ends Warmest Decade on Record NASA Earth Observatory Image of the Day, 22 January 2010.

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Paris. IPCC, Synthesis Report, Section 2.4: Attribution of climate change, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2009

• Canadell, J.G., et al. (20 November 2007), "Contributions to Accelerating Atmospheric CO2 Growth from Economic Activity, Carbon Intensity, and Efficiency of Natural Sinks", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104 (47): 18866–18870. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0702737104

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References• IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 1996.

Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Green House Gas Inventories.

• Impact of climate change on vector borne disease with special emphasis on Malaria.NIMR

• NATCOM (National Communication), 2004. India’s Initial National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India, New Delhi

• IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change),2009. Emission Factor Database (EFDB). Available at http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/EFDB/main.php, last accessed on

• IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change),2003. Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land Use

• Change and Forestry. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) Jha A. K., Sharma C., Singh

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References• Global Change Master Directory:

http://gcmd.gsfc.nasa.gov/Resources/pointers/glob_warm.htmlIntergovernmental Panel on Climate change(last accesed on 24/03/2013)

• U.S. Climate Change Science Program: http://www.climatescience.gov/(last accesed on 24/03/2013)

• NOAA National Climatic Data Centre site on Global Warming /(last accesed on 24/03/2013)

• http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html /(last accesed on 24/03/2013)

• NASA GISS recent research website: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/ /(last accesed on 24/03/2013)

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Preserve our Forests…… Reduce Carbon Emission

Thank You