Global Climate Change:

Effects on Biodiversity

Warren G. AbrahamsonBiology DepartmentBucknell University

Threat: Impacts of CO2

CO2 has increased ≈25% in 100 yrs.

Atmospheric CO2

Ice Core CO2

Global Mean Temperatures: Rising Faster with Time

100 0.07 0.02 50 0.13 0.03

Period Rate

Years C/decade

United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007

Projected Patterns of Precipitation Change

United Nations IPCCApril 2007 http://www.ipcc.ch/

Bluish = more precipitation to high latitudesReddish = less precipitation to most low latitudes

Winter Summer

Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity

Organisms and/or biological communities are experiencing:

1. Phenology changes2. Population declines3. More frequent & severe

disturbances4. Species shifts5. Increases of invasive species6. Impacts to agriculture/forestry

Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity

Organisms and/or biological communities are experiencing:

1. Phenology changes (Earlier spring activity)

Birds nesting & laying eggs earlierTrees leafing out earlierEarlier flowering of plants

(Ahola et al. 2008; Tombre et al. 2008; Husek and Adamik 2008; Both et al. 2006)(Bertin 2008; Thompson and Clark 2008; Menzel et al. 2006)

Causing a mismatch betweenPeak of food availability & food needs for nestlings

Both et al. 2006

Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity

Organisms and/or biological communities are experiencing:

1. Phenology changes2. Population declines

Adelie penguin populations declined by 1/3 over past 25 years (Antarctic sea ice habitat declining)

Coral reefs declining(rising seawater temperatures)

Cool-climate communities (e.g., spruce-fir aspen-birch) predicted to decline >90% in USA

Philli

p Du

stan

Decline of Carysfort Reef (Florida)

Arth

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Alex

ande

r Bog

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(Botkin et al. 2007; Gullison et al. 2007)

(Emmerson and Southwell 2008;

Hinke et al. 2007)(Baker et al. 2008; Wilson et al. 2008)

Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity

Organisms and/or biological communities are experiencing:

1. Phenology changes2. Population declines

Tropical ecotherms narrower tolerance& live closer to physiological optimathan high-latitude species

Consequently, more vulnerable to climate thermal change

(Tewksberry et al. 2008. Putting the heat on tropical animals. Science 320: 1297-1297)

Enyalioides palpebralis

Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity

Organisms and/or biological communities are experiencing:

1. Phenology changes2. Population declines3. More frequent & severe disturbances

Sea level rise & enhanced stormsAlter 25-80% of USA coastal wetlandsCatastrophic impacts on low-lying countries (e.g.,

Bangladesh)

Increased incidence of fire in xeric communities

Lake Michigan Ludington Lighthouse

Nov 2008

Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity

Organisms and/or biological communities are experiencing:

1. Phenology changes2. Population declines3. More frequent & severe

disturbances4. Species shifts

Comma Butterfly

Shifts in SpeciesDistributions due to

Climate Change

NetherlandsNetherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

2003

12

Shift in Species Range

Southern-most population of “gigantea” host race of Eurosta solidaginis

● 1999●

2003

W.G. Abrahamson, unpublished data

Some Need It ColdShifts in SpeciesDistributions due to

Climate ChangeGall-inducing fly

Eurosta solidaginis

Eurosta solidaginis“gigantea” race gall

Southern-most population moved 130 miles north

X

Pygmy SkunkDistribution Shifts

with Climate Change

A Reserve to Protect Pygmy Skunk in 2000Inadequate by 2050

Shifts in SpeciesDistributions due to

Climate Change

Hannah et al. 2007

A Reserve to Protect Species in 1910

Inadequate before 2100

Shifts in CommunityDistributions due to

Climate Change

Climate change will cause shiftsin species distributions &

will impact ecological reserves

Glacier National ParkEst. 1910

Temperate-zone climate regions will shift toward the poles: >10% of species unable to survive warmer

climatesExtinction if they can’t migrate to new localitiesHabitat fragmentation will slow or prevent

migration

Miller-Rushing and Primack 2004, Malcolm et al. 2006, Sekercioglu et al. 2008

Shifts in Distributions

“Island” constrained species have nowhere to go –

They face extirpation or extinction

Temperate-zone climate regions will shift toward the poles:

Most impacted: Limited-distribution, poor-dispersal species

Advantage to:Widely distributed, easily dispersed species Miller-Rushing and Primack 2004, Malcolm et al. 2006, Sekercioglu et al. 2008

Shifts in Distributions

Dries Buytaert

Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity

Organisms and/or biological communities are experiencing:

1. Phenology changes2. Population declines3. More frequent & severe

disturbances4. Species shifts5. Increases of invasive species

Warmer conditions & elevated CO2 levels may favor invasive species & outbreaks of pest species

Invasive Species

Asian-origin Hemlock Woolly AdelgidAsian-origin Japanese Honeysuckle

♀ ovipositing

European/Asian-origin Gypsy Moth

Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity

Organisms and/or biological communities are experiencing:

1. Phenology changes2. Population declines3. More frequent & severe

disturbances4. Species shifts5. Increases of invasive species6. Impacts to agriculture/forestry

Climate Change Could Devastate Crops

Lobell et al. 2008. Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science 319: 607-610.

Examples:By 2030:Southern Africa could lose >30% of its main crop, maize Southern Asia could lose >10% of regional staples, including rice, millet & maize

Production Impact (%)

Production Impact (%)

Crop ImportanceRed = More importantOrange = ImportantYellow = Less important

Pennsylvania:Ag/Forestry Possible Impacts

Union of Concerned Scientists, Oct 2008

Faced with Huge Challenges:

To save biodiversity, need global action

Edward Abbey wrote…

“…love of the wilderness is more than a hunger for what is always beyond reach; it is also an expression of loyalty to the earth which bore us and sustains us, the only home we shall ever know, the only paradise we ever need – if only we had the eyes to see.”

from Desert Solitaire 1968`