climate change cause & effects

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DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015THE DEBATE OVER CLIMATE CHANGE IS NOT OVERClass 2 | September 17, 2015

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015THE CLIMATE IS NOT A DEBATE TOPIC25:00Your Media Bubble5:20Science Lab: Climate Change Cause & Effect6:20Activity (and break): Climate Influencer Debate7:30Homework: Designing Climate Action Event & Teams7:50Fin.

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015

MEDIA BUBBLESTruthinessClimate filterDESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015THIS WEEKS HOMEWORK4Its not information overload. Its filter failureClay ShirkyINDIVIDUAL ASSIGNMENT | Design your own media bubble, to effectively filter for the climate change conversation; Infuse yourself with both optimistic & pessimistic views (start with the video & readings)Create: Design your media bubbleDocument: Document the best sources you found, and post to Google docsDemo: Be prepared to give a demo of your media bubble in class

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015SPEAKING YOUR TRUTHINESS5Methods

Best Practices

Examples


CAUSE & EFFECTIncreasing severity DisinformationObfuscation and confusionDESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015THIS IS NOT A TEST: SYSTEMS THINKING RECAP7How great were Judy and Souvik as your teachers!!STOCKSFLOWSFEEDBACK LOOPSLEVERAGE POINTS(SUPER) WICKED PROBLEMSGO!

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015WICKED PROBLEMS8WICKED PROBLEMS HAVE NO SOLUTION, YOU CAN ONLY MOVE THE NEEDLE.

There is no definitive formulation of a wicked problemEvery wicked problem is essentially uniqueEvery wicked problem can be considered to be a symptom of another problem

- SOURCE: Rittel & Weber, Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning. 1973.

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015SUPER WICKED PROBLEMS9SUPER WICKED PROBLEMS SUCH AS CLIMATE CHANGE ARE CHARACTERIZED BY FOUR ADDITIONAL FEATURES:

Time is running out; The central authority needed to address it is weak or non-existent; Those who cause the problem also seek to create a solution; and Hyperbolic discounting occurs that pushes responses irrationally into the future

- SOURCE: Environment.research.yale.edu


10THE CARBONCYCLE

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 201511THE CARBON CYCLE: THIS IS WHY WERE HOT

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015Certain gases in the atmosphere block heat from escaping. These are called Greenhouse Gases (GHG).

About 90% of this heat is then absorbed by the Greenhouse Gases and radiated back toward the surface, which is warmed to a life-supporting average of 59 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius).

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter01_FINAL.pdfFigure 1.1 | Main drivers of climate change. The radiative balance between incoming solar shortwave radiation (SWR) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is influenced by global climate drivers.

Natural fluctuations in solar output (solar cycles) can cause changes in the energy balance (through fluctuations in the amount of incoming SWR) (Section 2.3). Human activity changes the emissions of gases and aerosols, which are involved in atmospheric chemical reactions, resulting in modified O3 and aerosol amounts (Section 2.2). O3 and aerosol particles absorb, scatter and reflect SWR, changing the energy balance. Some aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei modifying the properties of cloud droplets and possibly affecting precipitation (Section 7.4). Because cloud interactions with SWR and LWR are large, small changes in the properties of clouds have important implications for the radiative budget (Section 7.4). Anthropogenic changes in GHGs (e.g., CO2, CH4, N2O, O3, CFCs) and large aerosols (>2.5 m in size) modify the amount of outgoing LWR by absorbing outgoing LWR and re-emitting less energy at a lower temperature (Section 2.2). Surface albedo is changed by changes in vegetation or land surface properties, snow or ice cover and ocean colour (Section 2.3). These changes are driven by natural seasonal and diurnal changes (e.g., snow cover), as well as human influence (e.g., changes in vegetation types) (Forster et al., 2007).

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122014: EARTHS WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD (SINCE 1830S)

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/2014/12http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/global/2014/ann/timeseries/decadal-avgs.png

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AND THE CLIMATE HAS INTERTIA13CLIMATE INTERTIA: The climate changes slowly. The amount of GHGs which weve forced into the atmosphere is enough to increase warming by an additional .6 degrees C.

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2007/10/common-climate-misconceptions-co2-as-a-feedback-and-forcing-in-the-climate-system/13

CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGEThe anthropoceneDESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015WHOS TO BLAME? ITS US (HUMANS)15

- SOURCE: Smithsonian Magazine

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/what-is-the-anthropocene-and-are-we-in-it-164801414/?no-ist

Debate over whether weve exited the Holoucine (recent era) and have entered the anthropocene (human era) by which humans have permanently changed the planet?

The anthropocene is a proposed epoch that begins when human activities started to have a significant global impact on Earths ecosystems15

WERE MESSING WITH OUR CARBON SOURCES & SINKS16Greenhouse gasses are released & recaptured from the atmosphere in two ways: Carbon Sources (or forcings) & Carbon Sinks (or reservoirs).

SOURCE (FORCING): A source emits more carbon/GHGs than it absorbs. Main sources are from fossil fuel combustion. Others include landfills and bovine animals.

SINK (RESERVOIRS): A sink absorbs more carbon/GHGs than it gives off.The largest carbon sink is the ocean. Other major sources include soil, forests and other biota.


THE DREAM OF THE (18)90S IS ALIVE IN THE U.S.The industrial age gave birth to the modern economyIN 1896, SCIENTISTS DISCOVERED THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT and its link to industrial age coal burning

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-158745601896 - Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius concludes that industrial-age coal burning will enhance the natural greenhouse effect. He suggests this might be beneficial for future generations. His conclusions on the likely size of the "man-made greenhouse" are in the same ballpark - a few degrees Celsius for a doubling of CO2 - as modern-day climate models.17

THE MAJORITY OF GLOBAL EMISSIONS ARE DRIVEN BY FOSSIL FUEL COMBUSTION18World GHG Emissions Flow Chart, 2010(Total Emissions: 48,629 MtCO2e)

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://inhabitat.com/amazing-infographic-shows-where-the-worlds-greenhouse-gases-come-from/http://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html18

AS OF 2011 WEVE BURNED 52% OF OUR CARBON BUDGET19Human activities need to be limited to 1 trillion tonnes C (1000 PgC) since the beginning of the industrial revolution if we are to have a likely chance of limiting warming to 2C. This is our carbon budget Source: The IPCC

The same concept as a checking account. When weve spent it all, theres no more money (and the planets overdraft fees will be much more significant than a banks small charges for bounced checks). Source: The World Resources Institute

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 20151 PgC (Petagrams Carbon) = 1 GtC (Gigatons Carbon)As of 2011 weve burned through about 52% of that budget (515 PgC)

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AND GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IS INCREASING20- Google, The World Resources Institute

5.5M12.7M(metric tons) of oil equivalent (ktoe)


WHATS DRIVING THESE SHIFTS: POPULATION? GDP?

Global PopulationGlobal GDP(million chained International Dollars, 2005, adjusted for inflation)3B44.5M

7B

90MEmissions have tracked population growthEmissions per CapitaEmissions IntensityGDP growth has outpaced emissions growth6.34865.9693MtCO2e/Mil. Intl. $1990-2011

Per Capita tCO2e1990-2011

- Google, The World Resources Institute

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015Gross domestic product (GDP) is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. GDP-USD uses market exchange rates GDP-USD is million chained (2005) U.S. dollars (adjusted for inflation).21

BUT THE BURDEN OF RESPONSIBILITY IS SHIFTING22- Source: The World Resources Institute

Cumulative GHG Emissions 1990-2011 (% of World Total)Cumulative GHG Emissions 1850-2011 (% of World Total)

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://www.wri.org/blog/2014/11/6-graphs-explain-world%E2%80%99s-top-10-emitters22

THE U.S. IS IN THEIR OWN LEAGUE ON CO2 EMISSIONS23

- Google, The World Resources Institute

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015IN TEN YEARS BEIJINGS PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE QUADROUPLED24- Source: The World Resources Institute

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://climate.nasa.gov/state_of_flux#Beijing2000-2009_930px_73.jpg24

THIS HAS CAUSED SOME KERFUFFLE25

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015WHICH SECTORS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MOST GLOBAL EMISSIONS?26- The Environmental Protection AgencyIndustryAgricultureCommercial BuildingsTransportationResidential BuildingsForestryWaste & WastewaterEnergy Supply (Electricity and Heat)

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/usinventoryreport.html26

GLOBAL ECONOMIC SECTORS DRIVING EMISSIONS27- The Environmental Protection Agency

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html27

WHICH SECTORS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MOST EMISSIONS IN THE US?28- The Environmental Protection AgencyIndustryAgricultureCommercial SectorTransportationResidential Sector


U.S. ECONOMIC SECTORS DRIVING EMISSIONS29- The Environmental Protection Agency

U.S. Greenhouse Gas EmissionsBy Economic Sector, 1990-2013(U.S. Emissions have decreased 5% since 2005)


BUT THIS PICTURE SHIFTS WHEN DISTRIBUTING ELECTRICITY TO THE POINT OF DEMAND30- The Environmental Protection Agency


THE U.S. GRID COMES FROM NONRENEWABLE SOURCES31- Energy Information AdministrationBut the % of renewables in increasing over time.

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3

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MEGA FORCES UNDERLYING THIS CHALLENGE32RESOURCE AVAILABILITYPOPULATIONAFFLUENCE (GDP)AWARENESSPOLITICSSOCIETYCLIMATE INTERTIA


NEXT WEEK33TURING THIS INTO AN OPPORTUNITY FOR POSITIVE GLOBAL CHANGE

Mitigation! Technological solutions, behavior change, treaties.


EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGETemperature increases > Sea level riseSevere weatherHabitat loss



35BUT ISNT BEING HOT AWESOME?


OR OTHER ANIMALS. OR PLANTS. OR HUMANS.

36NOT IF YOURE THIS GUY.


LETS PUT THINGS IN HUMAN TERMS37

CLIMATE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTSCLIMATE SOCIAL/HEALTHEFFECTSCLIMATE ECONOMICEFFECTS

SOME EFFECTS WERE MORE CERTAIN OF THAN OTHERS

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015WHAT CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS HAVE YOU LEARNED ABOUT?

http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2007/10/common-climate-misconceptions-co2-as-a-feedback-and-forcing-in-the-climate-system/37

EFFECTS ARE NOT FELT EQUALLY38Climate Change vulnerability index, 2011 (Yale)


GHG FORCINGS ARE TURNING INTO RUNAWAY FEEDBACKS39Feedbacks: Can either amplify or diminish the effect of forcings.Ice albedoOcean acificiation

FEEDBACK: Some feedbacks were more certain of than others.

POSITIVE FEEDBACK: A feedback that increases initial warming/temperature.

NEGATIVE FEEDBACK: A feedback that reduces initial warming/temperature.

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://climate.nasa.gov/nasa_role/science/39

THIS LEADS TO VARIABILITY IN PROJECTIONS40WERE ARGUING ABOUT THE DEGREE OF SEVERITY

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/09/the-new-ipcc-climate-report/40

UNTENDED CONSEQUENCES & TIPPING POINTS41Tipping point: a critical threshold at which the future state of a system can be qualitatively altered by a small change in forcing. Ocean circulationIce/glacial lossRapid methane release

Policy-relevant tipping elements: those that could be forced past a tipping point this century by human activities.

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2007/10/common-climate-misconceptions-co2-as-a-feedback-and-forcing-in-the-climate-system/, http://climate.nasa.gov/nasa_role/science/41

42WHEN THE TEMPERATURE INCREASES> Causes oceans to expand (water absorbs more heat!)CLIMATE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://images.nationalgeographic.com/wpf/media-live/photos/000/166/cache/article-sea-level-rise_16648_600x450.jpg42

43WHEN THE TEMPERATURE INCREASES> Leads to more severe storms (hot air holds more moisture, hot water more heat)CLIMATE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS


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44WHEN THE TEMPERATURE INCREASES> Causes glaciers to melt> Causes feedback albedo effect> When glaciers are on land, causes sea level riseCLIMATE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS


45WHEN THE TEMPERATURE INCREASES> Causes permafrost to melt> Causes release of methane emissions (feedback)CLIMATE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://s.ngm.com/2007/12/permafrost/img/permafrost_feature.jpg45

46WHEN THE TEMPERATURE INCREASES> Intensifies droughts (hot air absorbs more moisture from the land)CLIMATE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://s.ngm.com/2007/12/permafrost/img/permafrost_feature.jpg46

47WHEN THERES MORE CARBON IN THE ATMOSPHERE> Causes ocean acidification> Causes coral bleaching> Causes reef food chain collapseCLIMATE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/poverty-matters/2013/aug/02/sahel-climate-change-displacement-migration47

48WHEN CLIMATE PATTERNS CHANGE> Causes habitat loss> Causes species extinctionCLIMATE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/poverty-matters/2013/aug/02/sahel-climate-change-displacement-migration48

49WHEN SEA LEVELS RISE > Causes floods> Hundreds of millions of people live in low-lying areas prone to floodsCLIMATE SOCIAL/HEALTHEFFECTS


50WHERE FLOODS/DROUGHT OCCUR> Causes climate refugees to fleeCLIMATE SOCIAL/HEALTHEFFECTS


51FOSSIL FUELS COMBUSION CAUSES CLIMATE CHANGE> Co-pollutants are also released (black carbon), causing respiratory illnessCLIMATE SOCIAL/HEALTHEFFECTS


52CLIMATE SOCIAL/HEALTHEFFECTS

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2015/03/150302-syria-war-climate-change-drought/52

53WHEN DROUGHTS OCCUR> Contributes to global conflict> The war in Syria has been partially attributed to climate changeCLIMATE SOCIAL/HEALTHEFFECTS

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2015/03/150302-syria-war-climate-change-drought/53

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CLIMATE ECONOMICEFFECTSWHEN SEVERE STORMS OCCUR> Causes economic activity loss> Causes costly damages > Hurricane Sandy caused $38 Billion worth of damage

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/04/the-economic-case-for-acting-on-climate-change/360995/54

55CLIMATE ECONOMICEFFECTSWHEN DROUGHTS OCCUR> Causes economic activity loss

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015NEXT WEEK56TURING THIS INTO AN OPPORTUNITY FOR POSITIVE GLOBAL CHANGE

ADAPTATION, RESILIENCE, AND INNOVATION! Technological solutions & behavior change.


CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCERSTrollsDisruptorsTalking headsPolitical wonksParadigm shifters


DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015THE CLIMATE IS NOT A DEBATE TOPIC58"Is Capitalism the problem?

Youll be assigned a specific role to play, as a member of the activist, media, business, scientific, or political community.

As your character, prepare a one minute statement (timed) to deliver to the class responding to the prompt above.

You have 30 minutes to prepare, including your break time.

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015THE CHARACTERS59ACTIVISTMEDIASCIENTIFICGOVERNMENTBUSINESSBill McKibben350.orgSteven ColbertHost, The Late ShowGavin SchmidtClimatologist, NASA Goddard Institute for Space StudiesJeb Bush2016 US Presidential CandidateElon MuskCEO, TeslaFred KruppPresident, The Environmental Defense FundElizabeth KolbertThe New YorkerNeil deGrasse TysonDirector of the Hayden PlanetariumGina McCarthyAdministrator, The EPABob DudleyCEO, British PetroleumJoseph BastPresident and CEO, The Heartland InstituteBill OReillyHost, The OReilly FactorJohn HoldrenDirector of the Office of Science and Technology Policy, the White HouseXi JinpingPresident of ChinaLarry PageCEO, Google (Future CEO Alphabet)Jacqui PattersonDirector, NAACP Environmental and Climate Justice ProgramJoel MakowerChairman & Executive Editor, GreenBizRichard LindzenProfessor of Meteorology, MITBan Ki-moonSecretary-General, the UNCharles KochCEO, Koch Industries


HOMEWORKRich researchEvent experience designDESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015HOMEWORK61Read: The Sunniest Climate-Change Story Youve Ever Readhttp://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/09/sunniest-climate-change-story-ever-read.html

Workshop Roles / Focus Transportation topic Business solutions topic Renewables deployment & efficiency topic Target awareness topic Event facilitation, design

Propose 2 activities for a workshop designed to harvest/brainstorm ideas for your category of focus:Your activity should last 45 minutes; About 7 people per groupDivide activity into opening, brainstorming, and closing segmentsDesign activity prompts including a template to share ideas prior to collective brainstorming

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015INVITE ATTENDEES TO EVENT!62Forward the email to people of interestSpread the word & build momentumUse it as an excuse to meet new people

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015TEAM ASSIGNMENTS63FOUR PEOPLE PER GROUP.


DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015FIN.
