climate change cause & effects

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DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015THE DEBATE OVER CLIMATE CHANGE IS NOT OVERClass 2 | September 17, 2015

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015THE CLIMATE IS NOT A DEBATE TOPIC25:00Your Media Bubble5:20Science Lab: Climate Change Cause & Effect6:20Activity (and break): Climate Influencer Debate7:30Homework: Designing Climate Action Event & Teams7:50Fin.

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015

MEDIA BUBBLESTruthinessClimate filterDESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015THIS WEEKS HOMEWORK4Its not information overload. Its filter failureClay ShirkyINDIVIDUAL ASSIGNMENT | Design your own media bubble, to effectively filter for the climate change conversation; Infuse yourself with both optimistic & pessimistic views (start with the video & readings)Create: Design your media bubbleDocument: Document the best sources you found, and post to Google docsDemo: Be prepared to give a demo of your media bubble in class

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015SPEAKING YOUR TRUTHINESS5Methods

Best Practices

Examples

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015

CAUSE & EFFECTIncreasing severity DisinformationObfuscation and confusionDESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015THIS IS NOT A TEST: SYSTEMS THINKING RECAP7How great were Judy and Souvik as your teachers!!STOCKSFLOWSFEEDBACK LOOPSLEVERAGE POINTS(SUPER) WICKED PROBLEMSGO!

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015WICKED PROBLEMS8WICKED PROBLEMS HAVE NO SOLUTION, YOU CAN ONLY MOVE THE NEEDLE.

There is no definitive formulation of a wicked problemEvery wicked problem is essentially uniqueEvery wicked problem can be considered to be a symptom of another problem

- SOURCE: Rittel & Weber, Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning. 1973.

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015SUPER WICKED PROBLEMS9SUPER WICKED PROBLEMS SUCH AS CLIMATE CHANGE ARE CHARACTERIZED BY FOUR ADDITIONAL FEATURES:

Time is running out; The central authority needed to address it is weak or non-existent; Those who cause the problem also seek to create a solution; and Hyperbolic discounting occurs that pushes responses irrationally into the future

- SOURCE: Environment.research.yale.edu

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015

10THE CARBONCYCLE

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 201511THE CARBON CYCLE: THIS IS WHY WERE HOT

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015Certain gases in the atmosphere block heat from escaping. These are called Greenhouse Gases (GHG).

About 90% of this heat is then absorbed by the Greenhouse Gases and radiated back toward the surface, which is warmed to a life-supporting average of 59 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius).

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter01_FINAL.pdfFigure 1.1 | Main drivers of climate change. The radiative balance between incoming solar shortwave radiation (SWR) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is influenced by global climate drivers.

Natural fluctuations in solar output (solar cycles) can cause changes in the energy balance (through fluctuations in the amount of incoming SWR) (Section 2.3). Human activity changes the emissions of gases and aerosols, which are involved in atmospheric chemical reactions, resulting in modified O3 and aerosol amounts (Section 2.2). O3 and aerosol particles absorb, scatter and reflect SWR, changing the energy balance. Some aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei modifying the properties of cloud droplets and possibly affecting precipitation (Section 7.4). Because cloud interactions with SWR and LWR are large, small changes in the properties of clouds have important implications for the radiative budget (Section 7.4). Anthropogenic changes in GHGs (e.g., CO2, CH4, N2O, O3, CFCs) and large aerosols (>2.5 m in size) modify the amount of outgoing LWR by absorbing outgoing LWR and re-emitting less energy at a lower temperature (Section 2.2). Surface albedo is changed by changes in vegetation or land surface properties, snow or ice cover and ocean colour (Section 2.3). These changes are driven by natural seasonal and diurnal changes (e.g., snow cover), as well as human influence (e.g., changes in vegetation types) (Forster et al., 2007).

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122014: EARTHS WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD (SINCE 1830S)

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/2014/12http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/global/2014/ann/timeseries/decadal-avgs.png

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AND THE CLIMATE HAS INTERTIA13CLIMATE INTERTIA: The climate changes slowly. The amount of GHGs which weve forced into the atmosphere is enough to increase warming by an additional .6 degrees C.

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2007/10/common-climate-misconceptions-co2-as-a-feedback-and-forcing-in-the-climate-system/13

CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGEThe anthropoceneDESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015WHOS TO BLAME? ITS US (HUMANS)15

- SOURCE: Smithsonian Magazine

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/what-is-the-anthropocene-and-are-we-in-it-164801414/?no-ist

Debate over whether weve exited the Holoucine (recent era) and have entered the anthropocene (human era) by which humans have permanently changed the planet?

The anthropocene is a proposed epoch that begins when human activities started to have a significant global impact on Earths ecosystems15

WERE MESSING WITH OUR CARBON SOURCES & SINKS16Greenhouse gasses are released & recaptured from the atmosphere in two ways: Carbon Sources (or forcings) & Carbon Sinks (or reservoirs).

SOURCE (FORCING): A source emits more carbon/GHGs than it absorbs. Main sources are from fossil fuel combustion. Others include landfills and bovine animals.

SINK (RESERVOIRS): A sink absorbs more carbon/GHGs than it gives off.The largest carbon sink is the ocean. Other major sources include soil, forests and other biota.

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2007/10/common-climate-misconceptions-co2-as-a-feedback-and-forcing-in-the-climate-system/16

THE DREAM OF THE (18)90S IS ALIVE IN THE U.S.The industrial age gave birth to the modern economyIN 1896, SCIENTISTS DISCOVERED THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT and its link to industrial age coal burning

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-158745601896 - Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius concludes that industrial-age coal burning will enhance the natural greenhouse effect. He suggests this might be beneficial for future generations. His conclusions on the likely size of the "man-made greenhouse" are in the same ballpark - a few degrees Celsius for a doubling of CO2 - as modern-day climate models.17

THE MAJORITY OF GLOBAL EMISSIONS ARE DRIVEN BY FOSSIL FUEL COMBUSTION18World GHG Emissions Flow Chart, 2010(Total Emissions: 48,629 MtCO2e)

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://inhabitat.com/amazing-infographic-shows-where-the-worlds-greenhouse-gases-come-from/http://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html18

AS OF 2011 WEVE BURNED 52% OF OUR CARBON BUDGET19Human activities need to be limited to 1 trillion tonnes C (1000 PgC) since the beginning of the industrial revolution if we are to have a likely chance of limiting warming to 2C. This is our carbon budget Source: The IPCC

The same concept as a checking account. When weve spent it all, theres no more money (and the planets overdraft fees will be much more significant than a banks small charges for bounced checks). Source: The World Resources Institute

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 20151 PgC (Petagrams Carbon) = 1 GtC (Gigatons Carbon)As of 2011 weve burned through about 52% of that budget (515 PgC)

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AND GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IS INCREASING20- Google, The World Resources Institute

5.5M12.7M(metric tons) of oil equivalent (ktoe)

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015

WHATS DRIVING THESE SHIFTS: POPULATION? GDP?

Global PopulationGlobal GDP(million chained International Dollars, 2005, adjusted for inflation)3B44.5M

7B

90MEmissions have tracked population growthEmissions per CapitaEmissions IntensityGDP growth has outpaced emissions growth6.34865.9693MtCO2e/Mil. Intl. $1990-2011

Per Capita tCO2e1990-2011

- Google, The World Resources Institute

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015Gross domestic product (GDP) is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. GDP-USD uses market exchange rates GDP-USD is million chained (2005) U.S. dollars (adjusted for inflation).21

BUT THE BURDEN OF RESPONSIBILITY IS SHIFTING22- Source: The World Resources Institute

Cumulative GHG Emissions 1990-2011 (% of World Total)Cumulative GHG Emissions 1850-2011 (% of World Total)

DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015http://www.wri.org/blog/2014/11/6-graphs-explain-world%E2%80%99s-top-10-emitters22

THE U.S. IS IN THEIR OWN LEAGUE ON CO2 EMISSIONS23

- Google, The World Resources Institute

DESIGNING CLIMAT

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