climate change effects on forest

CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON FORESTS Challenges & Opportunities

www.forestadaptation.org Maria Janowiak, [email protected]

http://www.forestadaptation.org/

mailto:[email protected]

Climate Change Impacts 1) Warmer temperatures 2) Increased carbon dioxide 3) Changes in habitat suitability 4) Extreme events 5) Interactions

Vulnerability Assessment & Synthesis In progress for 2016

Synthesize findings of

state/regional assessments and scientific literature • Observed climate change • Anticipated future changes • Effects on forests

Incorporate new results from the Climate Change Tree Atlas, LINKAGES, and LANDIS models

Vulnerability Assessment & Synthesis Combine scientific literature, models, and expert knowledge to describe forest ecosystem vulnerabilities

Forest Vulnerability

& Confidence

Potential Forest

Change •Future climate •Published research •Model results

Local Info

•Current forest conditions

•Climate trends

Expert Knowledge &

Experience (via workshop)

Longer Growing Season Opportunity: Increased ecosystem productivity

Lieth 1973; Slide: A. Burton

Warm temperatures = Greatest growth

Longer Growing Season, Altered Precip Challenge: Reduced growth due to moisture stress


Variation based on moisture availability

Longer Growing Season, Altered Precip


Variation based on moisture availability

Challenge: Reduced growth due to moisture stress

Longer Growing Season, Altered Precip Greater uncertainty about future precipitation, but increased risk of summer moisture stress

Water loss from soils (evaporation)

Water loss from trees (transpiration)

Groundwater recharge

Runoff

Precipitation

Longer Growing Season, Altered Precip Greater uncertainty about future precipitation, but increased risk of summer moisture stress

Water loss from soils (evaporation)

Water loss from trees (transpiration)

Groundwater recharge

Runoff

Precipitation

Warmer temps increase water loss

Increased Carbon Dioxide

Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011

Increased Carbon Dioxide Opportunity: Increased productivity from CO2

• Increased photosynthesis • Increased water use efficiency


Increased Carbon Dioxide Opportunity: Increased productivity*

• Increased photosynthesis • Increased water use efficiency

*Effect likely limited:

• Limited sink strength • Interactions with nitrogen • Ozone damage • Other reductions in productivity

(e.g., moisture stress, disturbance)


Changes in Habitat Suitability Challenge: Decline of northern/boreal species Opportunity: Increased habitat for some species

Changes in Habitat Suitability Habitat based on: Temperature Precipitation Elevation Latitude Soils Slope & Aspect Land use Competition Management

Changes in Habitat Suitability Habitat based on: Temperature Precipitation Elevation Latitude Soils Slope & Aspect Land use Competition Management

Climate Change Atlas: What happens to tree and bird habitat when climate changes? • 134 Trees • 147 Birds

Iverson et al. 2008; Atlas website: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/

www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/

Changes in Habitat Suitability Habitat based on: Temperature Precipitation Elevation Latitude Soils Slope & Aspect

White Pine: Current Habitat (modeled)



White Pine: Current Habitat (modeled)

PCM B1 (Less Change) GFDL A1FI (More Change)



Red Spruce: Current Habitat (modeled)




Black Oak: Current Habitat (modeled)



Changes in Habitat Suitability

= species X suitable habitat

50% Reduction in Habitat:

Habitat reduced equally Best habitats remain

Changes in Habitat Suitability Challenge: Decline of northern/boreal species Opportunity: Increased habitat for some species

Many common tree species are projected to have reduced suitability in the future

Changes will occur slowly—not instant dieback

Mature and established trees should fare better

Immense lags to occupy habitats

Critical factors: competition, management, & disturbance

Extreme Events Challenge: Increased disturbance from extreme events

Heavy precipitation Ice storms Heat waves/droughts Wind storms Hurricanes “Events” are not well

modeled VTRANS/VT ANR

NY DEC

Dan Turner, Cambridge Fire Dept.

Interactions

Fire may increase: Warmer/drier summers Increased stress or mortality

from less suitable conditions Shift toward fire-associated

species like oaks and pines

Fire may not change: Spring/early summer moisture Current regeneration of more

mesic species Spatial patterns of land use

and fragmentation Fire suppression

Clark et al. 2014

Challenge: Increased wildfire potential

Interactions

Indirect: Stress from other impacts increases susceptibility

Direct:

Pests migrating northward

Decreased probability of cold lethal temperatures

Accelerated lifecycles

Ayres and Lombardero 2000, Woods et al. 2005, Parmesan 2006, Dukes et al. 2009 Image: Frumhoff et al. 2007

HWA lethal temp: -20 to -30°F

Challenge: Increased forest insects & diseases

Interactions

Indirect: Stress or disturbance from other impacts can affect the potential for invasion or success

Direct: Expanded ranges under warmer conditions Increased competitiveness from ability of some plants to

take advantage of elevated CO2

Dukes et al. 2009, Rustad et al. 2011; Images: Invasives Plants Atlas of New England (www.eddmaps.org)

Challenge: Increased forest insects & diseases

Second to last slide... Generally Challenges Reduced growth:

moisture stress Decline of

northern/boreal species Disturbance from

extreme events Wildfire potential Forests pests & disease Invasive species

Generally Opportunities Increased productivity:

longer growing season Increased productivity:

more CO2

Increased habitat for some species

What would you add?

Last Slide: Location, Location, Location

Research and assessments describe broad trends but local conditions and management

make the difference.

climate change effects on forest

Environment