capturing the dynamics of estuarine processes across mul4ple … · 2020. 1. 3. · estuarine...
TRANSCRIPT
capturingthedynamicsofestuarineprocesses
acrossmul4plespa4alandtemporalscales
ParkerMacCreadyKristenDavis
BarbaraHickeyNeilBanas
SamanthaSiedleckiMichaelWhitneyAngelicaGilroy
NirnimeshKumarFalkFeddersen
collaborators&contributors
SarahNGiddingsScrippsIns4tu4onofOceanographyCLIVAR-PSMImee4ng14June2016
Introduc4on• mo4va4on
Estuarineinfluenceontheshelfandbeyond• buoyancyandheatdeliverytotheshelf• nutrientdeliveryandproduc4vity
Currentestuarineresearch&simpleparameteriza4ons• highlightsofcurrentestuarineresearch&theory• cantheseprocessesbebeVerrepresentedinglobalandregionalclimatemodels?MaybethroughQandS?
Influenceofachangingclimate• spa4aldistribu4onoffreshwaterinputs• 4mingoffreshwaterinput
ocean/estuarineinterac4ons
Introduc4on• mo4va4on
Estuarineinfluenceontheshelfandbeyond• buoyancyandheatdeliverytotheshelf• nutrientdeliveryandproduc4vity
Currentestuarineresearch&simpleparameteriza4ons• highlightsofcurrentestuarineresearch&theory• cantheseprocessesbebeVerrepresentedinglobalandregionalclimatemodels?MaybethroughQandS?
Influenceofachangingclimate• spa4aldistribu4onoffreshwaterinputs• 4mingoffreshwaterinput
ocean/estuarineinterac4ons(whyyouwantfreshwatercorrectlyinyourmodel!)
100km
GangesDelta,IndiahVp://www.redorbit.com/media/gallery/earth/1_23425bc3820cd972c628e8835f4eb102.jpg
mo4va4on
Whydowecareaboutestuarine/coastalinterac4ons?• deliveryofterrigenousmaterialtothecoastalocean(sediment,pollutants,etc.)
mo4va4on
TijuanaRiverplumeinImperialBeach,CAcourtesyofWILDCOASTChlorophyllintheSalishSeahVp://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/3000/3613/S2003190210100.jpg
Whydowecareaboutestuarine/coastalinterac4ons?• ocean/estuaryexchangeanddeliveryofnutrients,primaryproduc4vity,lowpH,andO2depletewater
(e.g.Roegneretal.2011,MonteiroandLargier1999,NewtonandHorner2003,O’Callaghanetal.2007)
500km
AquariusseasurfacesalinityattheAmazonRiverPlumeImagefromhVp://www.myocean.eu/automne_modules_files/pmedia/public/r2_9_200911_amazon_june-4.jpg
mo4va4on
Whydowecareaboutestuarine/coastalinterac4ons?• deliveryofheatandbuoyancytothecoastalocean
• transportprocesses(includingHarmfulAlgaeBlooms(HABs),larvalconnec4vity,etc.)
(e.g.,Banasetal.2009,YamadaandKosro2010,McConnaugheyetal.1994)
Introduc4on• mo4va4on
Estuarineinfluenceontheshelfandbeyond• buoyancyandheatdeliverytotheshelf• nutrientdeliveryandproduc4vity
Currentestuarineresearch&simpleparameteriza4ons• highlightsofcurrentestuarineresearch&theory• cantheseprocessesbebeVerrepresentedinglobalandregionalclimatemodels?MaybethroughQandS?
Influenceofachangingclimate• spa4aldistribu4onoffreshwaterinputs• 4mingoffreshwaterinput
ocean/estuarineinterac4ons
physical-biogeochemicalsimula4ons
iodlabs.ucsd.edu/sgiddings/PNWTOX/resultsHypoxia.htmlUWCoastalModelingGroupCascadiasimula4ons
freshwaterinput:annualaverage
Thisfresherwaterimpactstransport,upwelling,buoyancyandmore!
CRnearshoreSSoffshore
meanwindstress
200m
contribu4ontoprimaryproduc4vity
DespitetheCRdomina4ngbuoyancyinput,theSalishSeacontributesmosttoPNWprimaryproduc4vityduetoitsstrongestuarineexchangereturningsignificantnutrientstotheoceansurfaceFigurefromDavisetal.2014.Thisisjustthe4poftheiceberg,excellentrecentworkbySiedlecki,Feely,Hill,Bap4staandotherslookingatotherbiogeochemicalimpacts(pH,alkalinity,DIC,etc.)
summary–shelfinfluence
highnutrients!
theCRdominatesbuoyancyinputandphysicaltransport
however,theSalishSeacontributesmosttoPNWprimaryproduc4vityduetoitsstrongestuarineexchangereturningsignificantnutrientstotheoceansurface
AsParkerMacCreadyreferstothese:estuarine“baVeriesofenergy”
estuarineinfluenceontheshelfintermsoftransportandbiogeochemicalprocessesdependsonupstream(river)anddownstream(ocean)condi4onsANDdynamicsinsideoftheestuary!
upwelling downwelling
(seeGiddingsetal.2014,Banasetal.2009,Siedleckietal.2015,Davisetal.2015)
Introduc4on• mo4va4on
Estuarineinfluenceontheshelfandbeyond• buoyancyandheatdeliverytotheshelf• nutrientdeliveryandproduc4vity
Currentestuarineresearch&simpleparameteriza4ons• highlightsofcurrentestuarineresearch&theory• cantheseprocessesbebeVerrepresentedinglobalandregionalclimatemodels?MaybethroughQandS?
Influenceofachangingclimate• spa4aldistribu4onoffreshwaterinputs• 4mingoffreshwaterinput
ocean/estuarineinterac4ons
whatareQandSexi4ngtheestuary?
whatitboilsdownto:
howtobestrepresentestuaries&plumes?• whichQ?• 2-waynes4ng?• modifiedsalinity?• simplifiedparameteriza4ons?• howmanyestuariestoinclude?
howtorepresenttheminthefuture?
Schema4cof4dally-averagedsalinityandvelocitystructurefromMacCready&Geyer,2010basedonKnudsenrela4onship
residualestuarinecircula4on
Excellentreviewpapers:MacCready&Geyer2010,Geyer&MacCready2014
QR Qout
Qin
Socn
river
ocean
s=constant
L
η
salinitycross-sec4on
estuaryvelocitycross-sec4on
Sout
Basicestuarinedynamics• longitudinaldensitygradients• 4desgeneratemixingviaboVomfric4on• theamountofmixing(i.e.,strengthofthe4des)andthestrengthoftheriverflowdetermineiftheestuaryiswell-mixed,par4allymixed,orstronglystra4fiedanddeterminetheriverplumebuoyancyandmomentum
ρ+
ocean(salty&cold)
river(fresh&warm)
Tides
Well-mixed
ρ-
residualestuarinecircula4on-theory
Excellentreviewpapers:MacCready&Geyer2010,Geyer&MacCready2014
Basicestuarinedynamics• longitudinaldensitygradients• 4desgeneratemixingviaboVomfric4on• theamountofmixing(i.e.,strengthofthe4des)andthestrengthoftheriverflowdetermineiftheestuaryiswell-mixed,par4allymixed,orstronglystra4fiedanddeterminetheriverplumebuoyancyandmomentum
ρ+
ocean(salty&cold)
river(fresh&warm)
Tides
Par4ally-mixed
ρ-
residualestuarinecircula4on-theory
Excellentreviewpapers:MacCready&Geyer2010,Geyer&MacCready2014
Stronglystra4fied
Basicestuarinedynamics• longitudinaldensitygradients• 4desgeneratemixingviaboVomfric4on• theamountofmixing(i.e.,strengthofthe4des)andthestrengthoftheriverflowdetermineiftheestuaryiswell-mixed,par4allymixed,orstronglystra4fiedanddeterminetheriverplumebuoyancyandmomentum
ρ+
ocean(salty&cold)
river(fresh&warm)
Tides
ρ-
residualestuarinecircula4on-theory
Excellentreviewpapers:MacCready&Geyer2010,Geyer&MacCready2014
frontalstrength?
waves?
remoteinternalwaves?
ice/plumeinterac4ons?
under-iceestuaries?
mul4plesmallestuaries?
foodforthought…
CSIDEproject,NSF,scripps.ucsd.edu/projects/cside/
photobyNStatomandSHolleman
(e.g.,Horner-Devine,MacDonald,Geyer,etc.)
(e.g.,Gerbietal.2013,Gilory&Giddings,ongoing)
(e.g.,Alfordetal.2012)
(e.g.,Deanetal.1994,Woodetal.2013)
(e.g.,Horganetal.2013)
(e.g.,Mazzinietal.2014,Wetzetal.2006)
waveimpactsonplumemixinganddispersion?
frontalstrength?
waves?
remoteinternalwaves?
ice/plumeinterac4ons?
under-iceestuaries?
mul4plesmallestuaries?
foodforthought…
(e.g.,Horner-Devine,MacDonald,Geyer,etc.)
(e.g.,Alfordetal.2012)
(e.g.,Deanetal.1994,Woodetal.2013)
(e.g.,Horganetal.2013)
(e.g.,Mazzinietal.2014,Wetzetal.2006)
SSTimagetakenon5July2012fromtheJPLOurOceanprojectshowsthewarmMackenzieRiverplumeextendingfarintotheBeaufortSeaduringupwelling(e.g.,Nghiemetal.,2014).
impactsonstra4fica4on,heatcontent,icecover?
(e.g.,Gerbietal.2013,Gilory&Giddings,ongoing)
frontalstrength?
waves?
remoteinternalwaves?
ice/plumeinterac4ons?
under-iceestuaries?
mul4plesmallestuaries?
foodforthought…
(e.g.,Horner-Devine,MacDonald,Geyer,etc.)
(e.g.,Alfordetal.2012)
(e.g.,Deanetal.1994,Woodetal.2013)
(e.g.,Horganetal.2013)
(e.g.,Mazzinietal.2014,Wetzetal.2006)
mul4plesmallestuaries=1largeone!?
(e.g.,Gerbietal.2013,Gilory&Giddings,ongoing)
howtoparameterizeestuaries?
Geyer&MacCready2014,Figure6 mixingparameter
riverineFrou
de#
M 2 =CDUT
2
ωNoH2
Frf =UR
βgsocnH( )12
Geyer2010,Figure2.6
scaledriverdischarge
Scaled
ver4cal
salinity
differen
ce
UR
βgSOh( )1/2
ΔSSO
howtoparameterizeestuaries?
contacts:[email protected]&[email protected]
BoxModelApproachforImprovingtheRepresenta9onofRiverineFreshwaterInputsinClimateModels
QiangSun,MikeWhitney,FrankBryan,ParkerMacCready,&Yu-hengTseng
howtoaddestuariestoGCMs?EstuaryBoxModel(EBM)nowincludedinCommunityEarthSystemModel(CESM)version2!!
inputs outputs
VE
BoxModelApproachforImprovingtheRepresenta9onofRiverineFreshwaterInputsinClimateModels
QiangSun,MikeWhitney,FrankBryan,ParkerMacCready,&Yu-hengTsengcontacts:[email protected]&[email protected]
howtoaddestuariestoGCMs?
Introduc4on• mo4va4on
Estuarineinfluenceontheshelfandbeyond• buoyancyandheatdeliverytotheshelf• nutrientdeliveryandproduc4vity
Currentestuarineresearch&simpleparameteriza4ons• highlightsofcurrentestuarineresearch&theory• cantheseprocessesbebeVerrepresentedinglobalandregionalclimatemodels?MaybethroughQandS?
Influenceofachangingclimate• spa4aldistribu4onoffreshwaterinputs• 4mingoffreshwaterinput
ocean/estuarineinterac4ons
1. Howwillchangingoceancondi9ons(sea-level,salinity,temperature,etc.)impactestuariesandtheirimportantecosystemservices?
2. Howwillchangingwaterresources(natural&anthropogenicrainfallvariability,urbandrool,desalina4on,regula4ons,etc.)impactestuariesandcoastalwaters?
precipita4onevents
extremewaterlevels&condi4ons
changingclimate?
humanuses
IPCC5WGIIAR5Chapter3,Figure3-4,fromScheweetal.,2013
Percentagechangeofmeanannualstreamflowforaglobalmeantemperatureriseof2°Cabove1980–2010(2.7°Cabovepre-industrial).
mul4-modelmeanchangeacross5GCMsand11GHMs
spa4al&temporaldistribu4onofQ
projected sea level (ft) modeled number of hours above 99.99% historical water level (hrs)
imagecourtesyofDanCayan,SIO,NRCWestCoastSLRStudy2012,alsoseeCayanetal.2008andDasetal.2013
SanFrancisconearGoldenGate,NOAAobserva4onsandGFDLmodel(VermeerandRahmstorf2009)
sealevelriseandextremeevents
Howwillestuariesrespondtosealevelrise&extremeevents?• morphologicalchanges(e.g.,Reeve&Karunarathna2009,Zedler2010)• changesinsalt-waterintrusiondistance(4edintoQ)(e.g.,Cloernetal.2011)• changesin4dalresponse(e.g.,Friedrichs)
thankyou!ques4ons?
[email protected]/labs/sgiddings/
100km
GangesDelta,IndiahVp://www.redorbit.com/media/gallery/earth/1_23425bc3820cd972c628e8835f4eb102.jpg
oceancanstronglyimpacttheestuaries&viceversa
dynamicsinsideestuariesdeterminecoastalimpacts
choiceofQandS?
changingclimatewillinfluencethespa4alandtemporaldistribu4onoftheseimpacts