Calling BS on (Social Media) Gurus

Scott Berkun@berkun

Scottberkun.com

Hi. I’m Scott.

• Microsoft ‘94-2003, IE 1.0 to 5.0 (not 6)• Now writer and speaker • BusinessWeek, Harvard Business, The

Economist, Wired, NYT, WSJ, NPR, CNBC • Bestsellers:

– Making things happen, (O’Reilly 2005)– The myths of Innovation, (O’Reilly, 2007)– Confessions of a Public Speaker, (O’Reilly, 2009)

• www.scottberkun.com– Blog, essays, videos & more

Agenda

• Snake Oil • Sales / marketing vs. “truth”• Questions for Gurus and Experts• Occam and Social Media• An inquiry into hype: by example

SNAKE OIL

We will always have get rick quick schemes

From 72ave.com

Words you should be poked in the eye for saying

• Fundamental change• Transformative• Revolutionary• Breakthrough• Radical• Paradigm-shift• Game changing

GURU गुGU - darknessRU - light

The syllable gu means shadows. The syllable ru,he who disperses them, because of the powerto disperse darkness the guru is thus named.

Advayataraka Upanishad 14—18, verse 5

Believe nothing,No matter where you read it,Or who has said it,Not even if I have said it,Unless it agrees with your own reason,And your own common sense.

-buddha

(This is what a real guru sounds like)

Tools for the wise

Whitepaper on Cognitive Biashttp://bit.ly/cognitivebias

Sales & Marketing vs. “The truth”

Sales, (viral) marketing, advertising and PR are value indifferent disciplines

Few say:

I won’t let you hire me unless you make this product better

“The truth” is in danger when…

1. Folks with PR & Marketing talent2. Are doing PR and Marketing3. About their PR & Marketing services

Caveat EmptorLet the buyer beware

Caveat VenditorLet the seller beware

Questions for Gurus

Credibility

• It’s harder to ascertain credibility in “new” fields

• How long have you been doing this?• Why are you more credible than the other guy?• Who are your clients? Can I talk to them?• What are your examples? Samples?• Are the promises you are making realistic?

How do you know?

Phrases not to trust:

– “Studies say” – which studies? Are there equally reputable studies that say the opposite?

– “Experts say” – which ones? When and where did they say it?

– “The data shows…”– “Ashton Kutcher / Gary Vaynerchuck did…”

Questions for experts

• Have you done this yourself?• How do you know what you know?• When have you or your theory been wrong? • Why do so many people fail at this?• What are you selling? • Does anything you say not suggest I should buy?• (SM) Why aren’t you more popular?

Challenges to Social Media claims

CHRONOCENTRISM

We’d rather hear how amazing now is, rather than how better it was or will be

It’s an easy way to make what you’reselling sound exciting

According to the book, besides news reporting, telegraphy, as the first true global network, message routing, social networks … with gossip and even marriages among operators ...instant messaging, cryptography, text coding, abbreviated language slang, network security experts, hackers, wire fraud, mailing lists, spamming, e-commerce, stock exchange …(via Wikipedia)

Many claims we make about the present, could be made about the rise of the telegraph

Cited research is decades old

Dunbar’s “number” (1992)

http://watarts.uwaterloo.ca/~acheyne/dunbar.html

Challenges for Social Media

• Yes, we have better, more popular tools• But we have always had

– social networks - it’s biological– word of mouth, back-channel, “authentic” media

• New media does not destroy the old • Signal to Noise is always the real problem • If your product sucks, not much else matters• ask “What problem am I trying to solve?”

An inquiry into hype: by example

Video: Social Media Revolution (Refresh)Erik Qualman, Author of Socialnomics

This is a Hobson’s choice

http://socialnomics.net/2010/05/05/social-media-revolution-2-refresh/

Industrial Revolution Inventions

• From 1780 to 1899:– Electric light– Steam power– Stethoscope– Sewing Machine– Indoor Plumbing / Toilet paper– Elevators / Skyscrapers– Telephone– Coca-Cola

This has been true for years

U.S. Population (not world)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Age_structure

http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2008/02/10/opinion/10op.graphic.ready.htmlhttp://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,766584,00.html

http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2008/02/10/opinion/10op.graphic.ready.html

62 mil

ANECDOTALVS.

EMPERICAL

Most reach claims are inflated

• Magazine subscriptions, TV watchers, RSS subs, etc.

• How many (twitter) followers :– Are an individual, living person– Are online when you happen to tweet– reads the tweet– Click on your link– Reads what they see when they get there– Who RTs or forwards– Who buys what you are selling

http://techcrunch.com/2009/10/05/twitter-data-analysis-an-investors-perspective/http://mashable.com/2010/03/10/twitter-follow-stats/

My lame hypothesis:

It is easier to get dumb people to click on dumb things

One definition of science

• Hypothesis - “What leads to Y?”• Research – Create experiment w/reduced bias• Collect and study data• Conclusion “We think X leads to Y”• Publish results so others can try to reproduce

Any real expert or guru should be asking other experts and gurus to:

• Reference their claims• Share methods so data can be reproduced• Scrutinize the sources they RT / forward / link• Bring more light, not darkness

?

In Response to my questions, Dan added more details on his research. Which is super cool.

By why aren’t we asking more experts to do the same before accepting it, linking to it or letting it be called science?

Conclusions

• The burden is on you (Cognitive Bias)• PR about PR has inherent credibility issues• Ask experts for clients and samples• Let others call you a guru• You are responsible for facts you use• You are responsible for facts you believe

Photo Credits & Thanks

• Campfire - http://www.sxc.hu/photo/681449• Thanks: Joe McCarthy, Rayna, Divya, Karl Sakas,

Dorian Taylor, Bryan Zug, SMCSeattle• Christopher Allen:

www.lifewithalacrity.com/2004/03/the_dunbar_numb.html• Dunbar’s actual paper:

watarts.uwaterloo.ca/~acheyne/dunbar.html

QUESTIONS?

Scott Berkuninfo@scottberkun.com

scottberkun.com@berkun