ben schultus – yesterday, today and tomorrow
TRANSCRIPT
Solutions and Future Directions in Water, Energy and Waste Management Forum
Yarra Valley Water
Tuesday 30 August 2011
Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow
• Summary of how we got here.• Where are we today?• Outlook for tomorrow.
The Greenhouse Effect
It’s All Relative
Diameter of Earth = 12,800 KM
Thickness of Earth's atmosphere (Troposphere) = 15 KM
Diameter of a Basketball = 240mm
Thickness of varnish = 0.3mm (0.012%)
A Fragile System
Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere
Source: NASA Earth Observatory (2010)
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
310ppm in 1960 to 392ppm in 2011
What Have we Done since 1820?
http://www.gapminder.org/world/#$ma
Power Production ‐ Largest Contributor
Victorian Power
Victorian Power New South Wales Power
= 1.230.90
= 37%
For the same amount of power consumed – Victorian businesses will generate 37% more greenhouse gases.
Factors from National Greenhouse Accounts (NGA) Factors July 2010 web site.
kg CO2‐e/kWh
So How Has This Affected Us?
Less Cold Days in Australia over 50 Years
Source: CSIRO &BoM
More Hot Days in the Last 50 Years
Source: CSIRO &BoM
40% Drop in InflowsOver 1997 - 2008 Period
A Serious Supply Problem
The Trend Continues
"June 2011 : This was the 316th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average. The last month with below‐average temperature was February 1985."
Data from NOAA on loading the climate dice, NOAA climate statement for first half of 2011, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/
Melbourne's early escape from winterPress Release, Tuesday August 23, 2011 ‐
Today….
• Unfortunately the current debate is very polarised
• US – nationally little progress. Some states acting.
• EU and UK charging ahead• China missed the dot com boom – it won’t miss this one
• India, Mexico, Columbia, NZ all have put a price on carbon
Givens for Australia
• Australia has signed international commitments that are non‐negotiable.
• Both Labor and Coalition have committed to a 5% reduction from 2000 levels by 2020
• What does this mean?
Emissions ProjectionsCommitment by both parties ‐ 160MT/yr reduction – Current ~580Mt/yr
It Can be Done!
http://ec.europa.eu/clima/documentation/roadmap/docs/com_2011_112_en.pdf
Cost Abatement Curve
www.climateworks.org.au
88% Global Energy Wasted!
Front Page Hitachi Annual Report 2010(A US$110B/yr Company)
Corporate Adoption
A Victorian Success
Australia’s largest polyethylene manufacturer works with City West Water and the Victorian Government to take 90% of its requirements from recycled water.
Ray Anderson ‐ Interface Carpets
http://www.youtube.com/user/RayCAnderson
Ray Anderson1934‐2011 www.youtube.com/user/RayCAnderson
Tomorrow…..
• Plenty of evidence to be prudent• Treat climate change like any other risk• Being the worst emitter per capita makes it easier to improve
• Australia blessed with lots of sun, wind, wave and geothermal – and lots of land!
• Industrial competitiveness critical – learning time!• Delay will cost more (Lord Stern, Prof Garnaut and many others)
The Train is Leaving the Station