bai soan quan tri rui ro-2

7/28/2019 Bai Soan Quan Tri Rui Ro-2

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Chng I: Qun Tr Ri Ro

Cu 1: Th no l ri ro? Cc cch phn loi ri ro. Cho v d minh ha.Ri ro c hiu theo nhiu trng phi khc nhau:Theo trng phi truyn thng:

Ri ro l iu khng lnh, khng tt, bt ng xy n.Ri ro l nhng bt trc ngoi mun xy ra trong qu trnh sn xut, kinh doanh cadoanh nghip, tc ng xu n s tn ti v pht trin ca doanh nghip.Theo trng phi hin i:

Inrving Pferfer: ri ro l s tng hp ca nhng s ngu nhin c th o lngbng xc sut. Ri ro gn vi s hin din ngu nhin ca vn vt, hin tng m cth o lng c bng xc sut. C ngha l ri ro l s ngu nhin khng ph thucvo ch ca con ngi. Tuy nhin cng c nhiu loi ri ro chnh l hu qu trc tiphoc gin tip do con ngi gy ra.

Marilu Hurt Marcarty thuc vin KHKT Georgia: ri ro l 1 tnh trng trong cc bin c xy ra trong tng lai c th xc nh c. C ngha l ri ro l bin cxy ra trong tng lai lin quan n iu kin, mi trng ri ro.

Ri ro l s bt trc c th o lng c (Frank Knight). Ri ro l nhng bt trcc th o lng c. Cn cc loi bt trc khng th o lng c coi l ri ro.

Ri ro l s bt trc c th lin quan n mt bin c khng mong i. (AllanWillett). Cch tip cn ny lin quan n thi ca con ngi. Nhng bin c ngoimong i chnh l ri ro, cn nhng bin c mong i khng phi l ri ro.

Ri ro l s bin ng tim n nhng kt qu.Ri ro l s bt trc c th o lng c, va mang tnh tch cc va mang tnhtiu cc. Ri ro c th mang ti nhng tn tht, mt mt, nguy him cho con nginhng cng c th mang li ch, nhng c hi.Qua cc khi nim trn ta thy tuy c nhng im khc nhau nhng u thng nht v

ni dung c bn l: Coi ri ro l nhng bt trc, s c khng mong i, nu ri ro xyra s gy mt mt thit hi v tnh mng, tinh thn, ti sn ca con ngi v c th olng ri ro bng xc sut. Hay hiu l nhng s kin khng mong i, khnglng trc, mt khc nhng s kin ny gn lin vi nhng him ho, nguy him i

vi con ngi. Nu xy ra him ho s gy ra nhng tn tht v tinh thn v ti snca con ngi.

ri ro l nhng bt trc, s c khng mong i, nu ri ro xy ra s gy ra mt mtthit hi v tnh mng, tinh thn, ti sn ca con ngi v c th o lng ri ro bng

xc xut.Ri ro trong kinh doanh L s bt trc c th o lng c, n c th gy ra nhngtn tht, mt mt, thit hi hoc lm mt i nhng c hi sinh li, nhng cng c tha n nhng li ch, nhng c hi thun li trong hot ng kinh doanh.

Cch phn loi ri ro:C 2 cch phn loi ri ro


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Cch 1: theo tnh cht ca ri ro c th chia 2 loi: ri ro thun ty v ri rosuy on

1. Ri ro thun tu l nhng ri ro ch mang li nhng hu qu khng c li hocnhng tn tht (ri ro ch c 1 chiu).VD: Mt ngi khi mua mt chic xe th h phi i mt vi vn ri ro ti sn mi

s hu nh c th gp nguy him b mt, b h hng hay b hu hoi Bin c c thkm theo thit hi hoc khng.Bao gm nhm ri ro sau:a. Ri ro c nhn: l cc tn tht v thu nhp hay ti sn ca 1 c nhn. Nhnchung, ri ro thu nhp c nh gi da trn 4 mi nguy him sau:

Cht sm, tui gi, mt sc lao ng. tht nghip.b. Ri ro v ti sn: bt c mt c nhn no l ch s hu ti sn th phi chu ri rov ti sn. Ri ro v ti sn l nhng tn tht v ti sn do b h hng hay mt mt. Riro v ti sn c chia lm 2 nhm: tn tht trc tip v tn tht gin tip.

Tn tht trc tip c th c hiu n gin nh sau: nu 1 ngi nh b tiu hudo ho hon, ti sn ca ngi s hu b thit hi l gi tr ton b ngi nh. Thit hiny c gi l thit hi trc tip hay tn tht trc tip.

Tn tht gin tip hay tn tht do hu qu: khi ngi nh b chy (tn tht trc tip),hu qu ko theo l ch ngi nh phi chi thm 1 khon tin c th sng tm 1 thigian u trong lc ngi nh c xy dng li. Phn tn tht ny l tn tht huqu.VD: Mt phn xng b ho hon. Tn tht trc tip ca cng ty l ton b gi tr phn

xng b thiu hu. Tn tht gin tip ca cng ty l thit hi v thu nhp do phnxng sn xut ra nu cn s dng n.c. Ri ro php l: Mi nguy him c bn trong ri ro php l l s bt cn ca ngikhc, hay s nguy him n ti sn ca h do khng cn thn hay khng ch tm gynn. Nh vy, ri ro php l cn c th l kt qu t vic bt cn khng c gy nn.Ri ro php l l s tng hp gia kh nng thit hi v ti sn v tn tht v thu nhptrong tng lai do hu qu thit hi v ti sn gy nn, hay trch nhim php l phtsinh trong trng hp c khi c hay khng c gy hi hay xm phm quyn li cangi khc.

d. Ri ro pht sinh do s ph sn ca ngi khc: Khi mt ngi no ng lm vic cho 1 t chc, ngi phi c trch nhim vi bt k tnh hung no m tchc s gp phi. Khi 1 c nhn hay t chc b ph sn l hu qu ca tn tht vti chnh, ta ni ri ro l hin hu. Trong trng hp ny t chc c th a vn

ph sn vo hp ng xy dng phng n thanh ton n vay khi c s c xy ra.2. Ri ro suy on cn gi l ri ro mang tnh u c l ri ro trong nhng c

hi to ra li nhun gn vi nhng nguy c gy c tn tht. Loi RR ny l ng lcthc y hot ng kinh doanh v c tnh hp dn ca n.

Nguyn nhn gy ra ri ro suy on l:


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a. Ri ro do thiu kinh nghim v k nng qun l kinh doanh: ri ro do thiu kinthc v qun l kinh doanh tm vi m v v m ca cc nh qun l dn n nhngthit hi to ln v mt kinh t.b. Ri ro do km kh nng cnh tranh: l ri ro ca cc cng ty do khng thchnghi c vi kh nng cnh tranh trn th trng, khng chim lnh c th trng

v khng gi c khch hng ca mnh. Hu qu mang li nhng thit hi v tichnh cho cng ty. Thit hi ny i khi c th lm cng ty ph sn.c. Ri ro do s thay i th hiu khch hng: Do s hn ch cc kin thc vmarketing, cc cng ty khng kp thi p ng c nhu cu ca khch hng. Huqu l hng sn xut ra khng hp th hiu ca khch hng, khng bn c, lm tntht ti chnh ca cng ty.d. Ri ro do lm pht: do lm pht tng lm cho gi c hng ho, nguyn vt liutng, ng tin mt gi. Kt qu: chi ph u vo ln hn mc d kin, lm cho thunhp b gim.e. Ri ro do iu kin khng n nh ca thu: Thu l mt trong nhng cng c iu ho thu nhp trong nn kinh t. N ng 1 vai tr rt quan trng trong vn tnhton hiu qu kinh doanh ca mt cng ty. Kinh doanh trong 1 mi trng bt n cathu l 1 ri ro rt ln. Nu khng c tnh ton k cng ty s d b thua l v c thdn n ph sn.f. Ri ro do thiu thng tin kinh t v thiu kinh nghim qun l: S thiu thngtin trn th trng s dn ti nhng quyt nh sai lm trong kinh doanh, gy hu qutn tht khng lng c.

g. Ri ro do tnh hnh chnh tr bt n: Tnh hnh chnh tr bt n cng l mt mi longi i vi cc nh u t trong v ngoi nc. Ri ro thng xut hin khi cc nhkinh doanh xut nhp khu c mi quan h vi cc nc c tnh hnh chnh tr bt n.khi cc chnh sch thay i c th s dn ti thit hi v ti chnh cho cc nh xutnhp khu.

Cch 2 : Cn c vo phm vi nh hng ca ri r c th chia : ri ro c th adng ha v ri ro khng th a dng ha1. Ri ro c th a dng ha hay cn gi l ri ro khng c tnh h thng, ri ro ctrng. y l nhng ri ro thng xy ra trong phm vi hp, mang tnh ring c, c th

v c th phn chia, gim thiu c bng cch a dng ha, bng cc ngun qu gpchung.

Ri ro c th a dng ha bao gm:a. Ri ro qun l

L nhng ri ro ny sinh do trnh yu km ca ngi qun l v vy quyt nhdo h a ra c th sai lm gy tn hi thm ch ph sn doanh nghip.b. Ri ro ti sn

L nhng ri ny sinh do ti sn v c cu ti sn doanh nghip nm gi.c. Ri ro ti tr

L nhng ri ro v trch nhim php l ny sinh t c cu ngun vn ca doanhnghip.


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V d: Ri ro cho ngi u t c phiu khi cng ty b ph sn, khi a dng ho riro ny s gim.

2. Ri ro khng th a dng ha hay cn gi l ri ro h thng, ri ro th trng. yl nhng ri ro ny sinh t nhng tc ng to ln ca th trng thng nm ngoi skim sot cu doanh nghip v khng th gim thiu c bng cch a dng ha.

Nguyn nhn ch yu gy nn nhng ri ro th trng l:a.Nhng thay i trong c ch qun l

b. Nhng thay i trong th hiu ca khch hngc. Tin b khoa hc cng nghd. Chuyn dch trong dng vn u t

Cu 2: Th no l bt nh? Cc mc bt nh. Cho v d.S nghi ng v kh nng ca chng ta trong tin on kt qu tng lai ca mt lothot ng hin ti. S bt nh xut hin khi mt c nhn nhn thc c ri ro. lmt khi nim ch quan v vy n khng th o lng trc tip. Do bt dinh69l mttrng thi t tng, n khc bit gia tng c nhn.

Cc mc bt nh;

Khng c bt nh ( tc l chc chn) nhng kt qu c th tin on chnh xc.Khi khng c bt nh, chng ta chc chn v tin on ca chng ta. Khi c schc chn, chng ta c th on trc nhng kt qu khng mt cht nghi ng.

VD: Nhng qui lut vt l: chng hn nh qui lut v trng lc hay nhng qui lut vs chuyn ng trong vt l. Nhng tin on xut pht t cc qui lut ny gn nh st

vi kt qu thc t, ph hp vi nhng gii hn ca cc dng c o lng ca chngta.

Mc 1: S bt nh khch quan, nhng kt qu c nhn ra v xc sut cbit. y l mc bt nh thp nht, chng ta nhn bit c nhng kt qu cth xy ra v bit kh nng xy ra ny.

V d: Nhng tr chi may ri: bi, xc sc cho ta nhng v d v mc u tinca s bt nh. Trong nhng tr ny kt qu c nh bi vic nh c ca nhngngi tham gia v ta c th tnh ton hay bit c nhng xc sut cho tng kt qu.

Mc 2 : S bt nh ch quan, nhng kt c qu nhn ra v xc sut khngc bit. mc ny chng ta khng chc chn v nhng xc sut, mc dchng ta phn bit c nhng kt qu c th xy ra. C th m t s bt nh cuhquan,bc l rox bn cht nhiu cuc u c kinh doanh, nhng d n u t vnhng ri ro c bo him.

V d: Ha hon, tai nn xe c. Nu ngi ch ca mt chic xe c th b h hi trongmt tai nn, c th nhn bit nhng hu qu nh sau: chic xe c th gp hockhng gp tai nn. Nu tai nn xy ra, mc thit hi thp nht n mc cao nht( chic xe b h hng hon ton). Tuy nhin hu ht nhng ngi ch cc phng tin

ny khng c c nhng nh gi chnh xc v kh nng chic xe c b tai nn haykhng, ch cha ni n chuyn c th c nhng mc thit hi khc nhau no khng.Nhng nh gi ny, nu nh c c, ph thuc vo nhng vn chng hn nh


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vng t chic xe ang hot ng, thi gian li,nhng thi quen li xe ca ngi chcng nh nhng ngi li xe khc, mc bo qun v nhng chi ph sa cha.

Mc 3: Bt nh cao nht, nhng kt qu khng c nhn ra y v xcsut khng c bit. mc ny chng ta khng bit chc chn v bn cht canhng kt qu m chng ta khng nhn bit y .

V d:thm him khng gian, nghin cu di truyn.Nhng n lc ban u trong vic thm him khng gian v s pht trin s dng nnglng nguyn t trong thi bnh. Trong nhng n ny, cng nh trong nhiu loinghin cu khoa hc khc, chng ta c th khng nhn bit dc hon ton bn chtca tt c nhng hu qu trc khi chng ta m nhn n.Cu 3: Phn tch mi quan h gia ri ro v bt nh, thng tin v truyn thng.

Ly v d v tin n tht thit i vi ngn hng Chu nm 2003.

Ngi ta c th xem ri ro khng khc hn l mt vn thuc v nhng xc

sut, trong khi s bt nh c th phn nh s bt lc ca chng ta trong vic bitn nhng xc sut ny. Tuy nhin mt ci nhn qu n gin nh vy s gy khkhn trong nghin cu qun tr ri ro. Ngi ta c th cho rng ng lc trong qun trri ro v s bt nh pht sinh t gc o c cng nh khoa hc.

S bt nh l nghi ng kh nng ca chng ta trong vic tin on kt qu tng laica mt lot nhng hot ng hin ti.

Ri ro l s bin ng tim n kt qu.

=>T hai khi nim cho thy, do nhng bin ng tim n tng lai nn lm chochng ta nghi ng v khng chc chn v nhng d on kt qu ca chng ta tnglai. Vy s hin din ca ri ro gy nn s bt nh.

Ri ro v s bt nh c mi quan h t l thun vi nhau, khi ri ro cng ln th s btnh ca chng ta v kt qu cng ln.

Khi ri ro cng ln th lm cho con ngi ta cng lo lng s nhiu hn v chng lmcho s bt nh ca chng ta cng cao dn n chi ph cho ri ro ca chng ta cng

cao. S bt nh m t mt trng thi t tng, v tu thuc vo tng i tng m sbt nh cao hay thp.

Nu chng ta nhn dng c ri ro, o lng v kim sot c ri ro th s btnh ca chng ta s gim xung.

Mi quan h gia thng tin v truyn thng:

+ Truyn thng v thng tin c mi quan h qua li v nh hng ln nhau cng ctc ng ln s bt nh v ri ro.

+Truyn thng l qu trnh quyn t thng tin. Truyn thng c th lm cho Thngtin truyn i c th b nhiu v nh hng n s chnh xc ca thng tin.


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+ Nu mt thng tin tt v c truyn thng tt th n s to nn nhng li ch cho ta.N s lm cho cho s bt nh gim xung nguy c ri ro t hn.

+ Nu khi lng thng tin ln th qu trnh truyn thng c th khng tt.

+ Nu mi trng truyn thng tt v hin i th qu trnh truyn thng tin s nhanh

chng v lan rng v chnh xc hn.

V d: Tin n tht thit i vi nghn hng Chu nm 2003. Vo thng 10/2003 ctin n l ng Phan Vn Thit- tng gim c ngn hng Chu m tin ngn hng

b trn ra nc ngoi. Tin n c loan truyn rng, thng qua truyn ming, v bocho nhau qua cc phng tin truyn thng. Mi trng truyn thng thun tin nnto iu kin cho thng tin ny truyn i mt cch nhanh chng v lan rng. Thng tinv tin n ny qu nhiu dn n lm cho ngi gi tin y tin rng thng tin nyl c tht dn n s bt nh v thng ny thp v ngi ta tin rng thng tin ny l c

tht. ngi gi tin thy tin gi ca mnh b ri ro v i n ngn hng Chu rt tin t. dn n ngn hng A chu c nguy c b ph sn. Ban lnh o ngn hng chu nh n phng tin truyn thng- bo ch v cc c quan chc nng cng

ban lnh o cp cao bc b tin n trn v x l thng tin.

Cu 4 : phn tch cc quan im v QTRR , ni dung tng quan im. Cho v d

Quan im truyn thng : qun tr ri ro l ch qun tr nhng ri ro thun ty,nhng ri ro c th phn tn, nhng ri ro c th mua bo him. nhng ngi theo

truyn thng l lun cho rng cc nhn t vt qu gi tr cc i ca cng ty c thnh hng n nhng quyt nh v qun tr ri ro.Qun tr ri ro ton din: QTRR l mt qu trnh c h thng, da trn c s thngk v tng hp c xy dng nh gi RR. Vic mua bo him ca qun tr ri roc nhiu tr ngi cng nh tr gip, ch yu n tp trung thu ht s ch ca nhqun tr ri ro vo nhng ri ro c th bo him trong khi nhng ri ro khc li

b lng qun. V th cc nh qun tr ri ro nn qun tr tt c nhng ri ro ca t chcmt cch ton din. Quan im ny c mc ch ph hp vi nhng nguyn l qun trcht lng ton din, v da ch yu vo ngn ng v nhng khi nim thuc v cc

lnh vc qun tr hot ng v k thut.Quan im l thuyt ti chnh hin i : Qun tr ri ro l nhng quyt nh tichnh v nn c nh gi trong mi tng quan nh hng ca chng n gi trcng ty. Bi v quan im ti chnh ny da trn v d ln ca th trng, n c ngdng cho nhng tp on ln, trong khi i vi cc t chc cng v phi li nhuncng nh cc t chc t nhn nh th c phn no b hn ch.

QTRR l qu trnh tip cn ri ro mt cch khoa hc, ton din, lin tc v c hthng nhm nhn dng, kim sot, phng nga v gim thiu nhng tn tht, mt mt,

nhng nh hng bt li ca ri ro. Qun tr xut hin ch yu trong cng ngngn hng ging nh mt cch tip cn c h thng i ph vi nhng ri ro ti


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chnh c th, chng hn nh ri ro tn dng, ri ro chuyn i ngoi t, ri ro tronggiao dch; cng nh ri ro u t.

Cu 5 : Phn tch cc nhim v c bn ca 1 nh QTRR trong mt t chc . Qua nh gi v tr ca h trong t chc . (cn din gii chi tit nhng di)

1. Gip t chc nhn dng, phn tch, o lng v phn loi nhng ri ro v sn vi t chc. (cn din gii ni dung ny: nhn dng? phn tch? o lng

phn loi?

Ngn chn v kim sot ri ro.?

Xem li nhng hp ng v ti liu lin quan nhm QT cc ri ro ?

2. Xy dng v t chc thc hin chng trnh kim sot ri ro, vi nhng iukin ph hp vi t chc ?

3. Xy dng v thc hin tt cc chng trnh ti tr ri ro:

Thu xp v thc hin nhanh chng cc hp ng bo him?.

Xy dng v qun l hiu qu cc qu d phng?

Vn ng s ng h ca cc ch th c lin quan?

Phn tch v la chn cc hnh thc ti tr thch hp khc?

V tr ca nh qun tr v cng quan trng, h ngoi phi nhn dng ri ro , ch ngphng nga, cn phi thc hin c mc tiu, s mng ca doanh nghip qua vicla chn chin lc t ri ro v nng cao hiu qu sn xut kd ngun lc ca doanhnghip.Cu 6 : phn tch nhng ni dung c bn ca chng trnh QTRR. Cho vd minhha.

Ni dung c bn ca chng trnh QTRR

Th nht: Xc nh s mng ca t chc mnh:

Sp xp th t nhng ch tiu v nhng mc tiu qun tr ri ro cng vi s mngca t chc l 1 nhim v c bn ca nh qun tr ri ro. Vic thit lp nhng mc tiuv ch tiu v qun tr ri ro c tm quan trng hng u, bi v chng l nn tng chott c nhng hot ng qun tr ri ro. Nhng ch tiu v nhng mc tiu ny l nhngtiu chun o lng s thnh cng hay tht bi ca chng trnh qun tr rr, v cngquyt nh trit l nn tng cho nhng hot ng qun tr ri ro.

Th 2: nh gi ri ro v bt nh:


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Bao gm 3 hot ng c lin quan nhau. Trc ht, phi nhn ra nhng ri ro vbt nh nh hng n t chc. Vic nhn ra nhng ri ro thng i vi vic nhn rami him ho v nhng nguy c. Nhng mi him ho (hay cn gi l nhng nhn tri ro trong trng hp nhng ri ro suy on) l nhng hot ng hay nhng iukin to nn hay lm gia tng kh nng hoc tn tht hoc li ch.

Bit c s tn ti ca nhng mi him ho, nhn t ri ro, v nguy c tn tht haynhng c hi c may mn th cha . Nh qun tr ri ro phi hiu c bn cht cachng, chng xut hin nh th no, v chng tc ng qua li nh th no dn nmt tn tht hay may mn. Nhng cm nhn v ri ro, cng nh bt trc, cng c

phn tch v chng c mt tm quan trng to ln.

VD: T chc c th hiu r nhng him ho khi tip xc vi nguyn liu nguy him.Nu nhn thc ri ro ca nhng ngi cng nhn l qu khc bit, th vic nh gi ri

ro c th tr nn mt thc t qun l i vi t chc.Th 3: Kim sot ri ro:

Kim sot ri ro l nhng hot ng tp trung vo vic n trnh, ngn chn gim bthay nu khng th cng l kim sot nhng ri ro v tnh bt nh. Nhng hot ngkim sot ri ro c th mang nhng hnh thc n gin, chng hn chc chn rng nh

bp c nhng bnh cha chy vn cn hot ng tt. Hay cng c th phc tp nhvic pht trin 1 chng trnh phng thm ho bt ng cho trng hp khn cp 1nh my nng lng ht nhn.

Th 4: Ti tr ri ro:

Nhng hot ng ti tr ri ro cung cp nhng phng tin n b tn tht xy ra, gyqu cho nhng chng trnh khc gim bt bt trc v ri ro, hay gia tng nhngkt qu tch cc. Thng mt vi tn tht vn xy ra mc d c nhng n lc kimsot chng. Vic ti tr cho tn tht ny c th bao gm nhng bin php chng hnnh: mua bo him, thit lp mt chi nhnh bo him bt buc, hay s dng nhng thtn dng. Vic lp qu cho mt chng trnh an ton trn ng cao tc thng qua

cc ph dnh cho nhng mc ch c bit s l mt minh ho t r rng nhng li cgi tr php l cu ti tr ri ro.

VD: Ngi ta c th nhn thy rng nhng ngn hng c lin quan mt cch ch ngvo nhng hot ng qun tr ri ro tn dng v li sut c th c xem xt mt cchhp l nh c hai hot ng ti tr ri ro v kim sot ri ro.

Th 5: Qun l chng trnh:

Yu t ny thit lp nn nhng th tc m nhng hot ng hng ngy ca chc nng

qun tr ri ro phi tun theo.


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VD: Nhng th tc mua bo him hay vic n nh cu trc ca qu trnh nh gi vxem li chng trnh u nm trong qun l chng trnh. Mt v d khc l nhngth tc dng cho vic thng tin nhng n lc v kt qu ca chng trnh n vinhng khn gi mc tiu theo d kin. Nhng kin thc phc tp v bo him hay kthut ti tr ri ro ch c tc dng hn ch i vi mt nh qun tr ri ro ch c nhng

k nng qun tr v truyn t yu km. Cng vy, vic qun l chng trnh c xcnh trong phm vi ca t chc v nhng ngun lc ca n. Cng tc ny i hi mtkin thc vng chc v cch thc t chc hot ng, nhng ch tiu v mc tiu can v ca con ngi

Chng II: Nhn Dng Ri Ro

Cu 1: Phn tch cc khi nim nhn dng ri ro, ngun ri ro, yu t mo him,him ha v nguy c ri ro. Cho v d minh ha.

Nhn dng ri ro: Nhn dng ri ro l qu trnh xc nh lin tc v c h thng ccri ro v bt nh ca mt t chc. Cc hot ng nhn dng nhm pht trin thng tinv ngun ri ro, cc yu t mo him, him ha, v nguy c ri ro.

Ngun ri ro: Ngun ri ro l ngun cc yu t gp phn vo cc kt qu tiu cc haytch cc. Chng hn th trng lao ng c k nng i Loan c th xem l mt yut quan trng trong ri ro suy on khi tin hnh xy dng mt nh my sn xut my

tnh y. Yu t ny s c xem nh pht sinh t mt ngun no , s c giithiu sau. Nhng ngun ri ro ny cng c th nh hng n cc ri ro thun tu,chng hn tnh cht ca lc lng lao ng c th to ra t l tai nn cao hay thp.

Ri ro bao gm cc thnh phn nh cc yu t mo him, him ho, nguy c ri ro.

Yu t mo him (nguy him): Mi nguy him l cc nguyn nhn gy ra tn tht.Hoc :c th gy ra tn tht ln. cng ging nh him ho, nguy him l nguyn nhngy ra tn tht. Nhng him ho dng ch trng thi, cn nguy him l dng ch

tnh cht, mc ca nguy c ri ro, tn tht.Yu t him ha: Mi him ha gm cc iu kin to ra hoc lm tng cc kh nngtn tht v mc ca ri ro suy tnh. Him ho l trng thi c th din ra tn thtnghim trng. Hoc him ho l s c gy ra tn tht.

Nh vy , him ho l nguyn nhn chnh gy ra tn tht. Thng thng him ho nmngoi tm kim sot ca nhng ngi c lin quan.

V d: lt, Bo, ho hon, trm cp, tai nn xe c gii, n l nhng mi him ho.

Nguy c ri ro: Nguy c ri ro l nhng e da nguy him c th xy ra, c olng bng xc sut.


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Nh vy khi ni n nguy c tc l cp n kh nng xy ra nhng s kin, hintng bt li i vi con ngi. Nguy c l yu t c th lm thay i tn s v mc nghim trng ca him ho.

Cn khi ni n nguy c ri ro tc l ni n nhng e do nguy him c th hoc

khng xy ra c nguyn nhn t ri ro. c trng ca nguy c ri ro l phn nh khnng xy ra ri ro bng xc sut thng k. Nguy c ri ro lun tim n song song vihot ng sng ca con ngi, vi iu kin t nhin bt li, bt k lc no n cng cth xy ra v gy ra tc hi cho con ngi cng nh mi trng sng.

Vd: khi ta ming gi lau c dnh du gn bp th ming gi l mi him ha, lat l si l mi nguy him, cn nh l i tng gnh chu ri ro.

Cu 2: Phn tch cc ngun ri ro c bn, trn c s cho bit iu kin VitNam hin nay u l ngun ri ro ln nht cho cc doanh nghip.

(trnh by cc yu t trong mi mi trng: gm nhng yu t no v v d trongmi trng vt cht c: ng t, hn hn, ma dm,. Dn n tn tht.)

Cc ngun ri ro c bn: c 7 ngun ri ro c bn:

1/ Mi trng vt cht:

R rng, mt trong nhng ngun ri ro c bn nht l mi trng vt cht xung quanhta. ng t, hn hn, ma dm u c th dn n tn tht. S bt lc ca chng ta

trong vic hiu bit mi trng chng ta ang sng, cc nh hng ca chng ta ivi n cng nh ca n i vi chng ta l nguyn nhn ch yu ca ngun ri ro ny.Mi trng vt cht cng c th l ngun pht sinh cc ri ro suy on, chng hn ivi nng nghip, du lch, u t bt ng sn

2/Mi trng x hi: S thay i cc chun mc gi tr, hnh vi ca con ngi, cutrc x hi, cc nh ch l ngun ri ro th hai. Nhiu nh kinh doanh M tht

bi ch khi nhy vo mi trng quc t. Chng hn s khc bit v cc chun mcx hi Nht cho thy y l mt ngun bt nh quan trng i vi cc doanh

nhn phng Ty v M. M, tnh trng bt n trong dn chng do cuc bo ngnm 1992 Los Angeles cng cho thy s quan trng ca ngun ri ro ny. S thayi cc chun mc gi tr cng c th tch cc, chng hn quan im v ph n tronglc lng lao ng m ra mt ngun nng lc mi.

3/ Mi trng chnh tr: Trong mt t nc, mi trng chnh tr c th l mtngun ri ro rt quan trng. Chnh sch ca mt Tng Thng mi c th c nh hngnghim trng ln cc t chc (ct gim ngn sch cc a phng, ban hnh cc quy

nh mi v x l cht thi c hi). Trn phng din quc t, mi trng chnh trcn phc tp hn. Khng phi tt c cc quc gia u dn ch trong cch iu hnh,


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nhiu ni c thi v chnh sch rt khc nhau v kinh doanh. Ti sn nc ngoi cth b nc ch nh tch thu hoc chnh sch thu thay i lin tc. Mi trng chnhtr cng c th c tc ng tch cc thng qua cc chnh sch ti chnh v tin t, victhc thi php lut, gio dc cng ng

4/Mi trng php lut: C rt nhiu s bt nh v ri ro pht sinh t h thng phplut. Lut php khng phi ch ra cc chun mc v cc bin php trng pht, vn l bn thn x hi c s tin ha v cc chun mc ny c th khng tin liu cht. phm vi quc t cn phc tp hn v cc chun mc lut php c th thay irt nhiu t ni ny sang ni khc. Mi trng lut php cng to ra cc kt qu tchcc nh cung cp mi trng x hi n nh, bo v cc quyn cng dn.

5/Mi trng hot ng: Qu trnh hot ng ca t chc c th lm pht sinh ri rov bt nh. Cc tin trnh khuyn mi, tuyn dng, sa thi nhn vin c th gy ra cc

ri ro v php l. Qu trnh sn xut c th a cng nhn n cc tn hi vt cht.Cc hot ng ca t chc c th gy tn hi cho mi trng. Kinh doanh quc t cth gp cc ri ro v bt nh do h thng giao thng vn chuyn khng tin cy. Vkha cnh ri ro suy on th mi trng hot ng cui cng s a ra mt sn phmhay dch v m t t chc s thnh cng hay tht bi.

6/Mi trng kinh t: Mc d mi trng kinh t thng vn ng theo mi trngchnh tr, s pht trin rng ln ca th trng ton cu to ra mt mi trng kinht chung cho tt c cc nc. Mc d cc hot ng ca mt chnh ph c th nhhng ti th trng vn th gii, nhng hu nh mt quc gia khng th kim sotni th trng ny. Tnh trng lm pht, suy thoi, nh n hin nay l cc yu t cacc h thng kinh t m khng mt quc gia no c th kim sot ni. mt phm vihp, li sut v hot ng tn dng c th p t cc ri ro thun ty v suy on ngk ln cc t chc.

7/ Nhn thc ca con ngi: Kh nng cu mt nh qun tr ri ro trong vic hiu,xem xt, o lng, nh gi cha phi l hon ho. Mt ngun ri ro quan trng ivi hu ht cc t chc l s nhn thc v thc t hon ton khc nhau. Mi trngnhn thc l ngun ri ro y thch thc trong vic nhn din v phn tch ri ro, vnhng phn tch i hi tr li nhng cu hi nh: lm sao hiu c nh hngca s bt nh ln t chc? hay lm sao bit c ci mnh nhn thc l ng vithc t?

Trong cc ngun ri ro trn th vn v nhn thc to ra ngun ri ro ln nht Vit Nam v:

S nhn thc v thc t hon ton khc nhau.

Vit Nam ang trong thi k i mi v chuyn i, i mi v ci cch.


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Cu 3: Phn tch cc nguy c ri ro v cho bit ti sao nguy c trch nhim php lcha c quan tm ng mc Vit Nam hin nay.

Theo nh ngha nguy c ri ro l cc i tng chu cc kt qu, c th l c haymt

C 3 loi nguy c ri ro l:

Nguy c ri ro v ti sn: l kh nng c hay mt ca doanh nghip. i vi mtti sn vt cht, ti sn ti chnh hay ti sn v hnh v cc kt qu ny xy ra do cchim ha hoc cc ri ro. Ti sn c th b h hng, b hu hoi hay tn ph, mt hocgim gi theo nhiu cch khc nhau. Vic khng th s dng ti sn trong mt thigian, tn tht v mt thi gian l v d cho mt loi tn tht thng b b qua. Thtvy, mt bin c nh s sp th trng ti chnh cc nc chu gn y lmngng tr cc hot ng ca nhiu doanh nghip nhng nc ny v gy ra tn

tht ln lao v ti sn cho cc doanh nghip ny. Nguy c v ti sn cng c th to racc kt qu tch cc.

Nguy c ri ro v trch nhim php l: l nguy c c th gy ra cc tn tht vtrch nhim php l c qui nh. Lut dn s v hnh thnh s quy nh chi titcc trch nhim m ngi dn phi thc hin. Nh nc ban hnh hin php, cclut ,quy nh v ch th p t cc gii hn theo lut cho mt s hot ng. Cc trchnhim php l thay i theo tng quc gia cng l mt vn phi lu . Nguy c riro v trch nhim php l l mt b phn ca nguy c ri ro v ti sn nhng khc riro v ti sn ch l y l nguy c ri ro thun ty.

Nguy c ri ro v ngun nhn lc: l nguy c ri ro lin quan n ti sn conngi ca t chc. Ri ro c th gy ra tn tht hoc thng vong n con ngi trongv ngoi t chc t cc nh qun l , cng nhn vin cho ti khch hnh, ngi chovay, c ng. Ri ro v ngun nhn lc l ri ro suy on. Mt ngi lao ng cth xem l mt nguy c ri ro v ngun nhn lc nhng nng sut ca h c th c ktqu tch cc. Mt thit b l thut cao c th xem l ngun gy ra tn tht (do gy tainn lao ng) ng thi cng l ngun to ra li ch (nng sut lao ng). S bt n vkinh t cng l nhng tn tht ph bin nh tht nghip, v hu. V vy qun tr ri ro

v ngun nhn lc phi quan tm n cc li ch v kinh t v th cht ca con ngi.Ti sao nguy c ri ro v trch nhim php l cha c quan tm ng mc Vit

Nam hin nay?

Ngy nay nguy c v ri ro trch nhim php l cha c quan tm ng mc Vit Nam, v h thng php lut v cc qui inh lin quan n trch nhim php l cacc bn lin quan cha tht cht ch nh cha mang tnh t nguyn, ch yu mang tnhcht i ph vi nhng qui nh, lut nh v ch th ca Nh nc. mt s doanhnghip cn tm cch lch lut thng qua s cha hon thin ca h thng lut nh. V

th i hi cn phi c mt h thng Php lut hon thin hn t thp n cao.


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Cu 4: Phn tch tng ni dung, u nhc im v cho v d minh ha ca tngphng php nhn dng ri ro.

C 7 phng php nhn dng ri ro bao gm : phn tch cc bo co ti chnh, phngphp lu , thanh tra hin trng, lm vic vi cc b phn khc trong t chc, lm

vic vi cc ngun khc bn ngoi t chc, phn tch hp ng, nghin cu cc s liutn tht trong qu kh.

1/ phng php phn tch cc bo co ti chnh : theo phng php ny cc khonnm trong cc bo co ti chnh s c nghin cu k pht hin ra cc ri ro timnng c th pht sinh. Nh qun tr c th nhn dng c cc ri ro v ti sn, trchnhim php l, v nhn s hin c ca mt t chc. T nh qun tr ri ro c th don c cc nguy c ri ro tim nng t cc bo co ti chnh v d ton ngn schca t chc.

i vi mi loi hnh t chc khc nhau, cc bo co ti chnh cng c nhng khonmc khc nhau nh: cc doanh nghip t nhn, cng ty c phn, c quan hnh chnhs nghip..Cng vic ca nh qun tr ri ro l xc nh cc loi ri ro tim nngc lit k trong cc bo co ti chnh cho tng t chc c bit.

Thc hin:

- phn tch hiu v nm vng cc s liu c trong bo co ti chnh (Phn tchtng ti khon? v d? phn tch cc ch s ti chnh ??

- So snh cc s liu c gc khng gian v thi gian a ra cc d bo chotng lai.

u im:

ng tin cy, khch quan, da trn cc s liu c sn, c th trnh by ngn gn, rrng v c th dng quyt nh cho c nh qun tr ri ro v nh qun tr doanh

nghipChuyn vic nhn dng ri ro thnh cc thut ng ti chnh quen thuc v t cth d chp nhn hn i vi cc cn b qun l khc trong t chc v cc i tng

bn ngoi doanh nghip nh chuyn vin k ton, ngn hngKhng loi tr vic nhn dng cc ri ro suy on, gip ch cho vic o lng v

nh ra cch qun l tt nht cho cc nguy c ri ro.Nhc im:Ph thuc vo chnh xc ca d liu gc v kh nng phn tch, tng hp v don ca nh qun tr

2/ Phng php lu : y l phng php c thc hin bng cch xy dng mtdy cc lu trnh by tt c cc hot ng ca t chc, bt u t khu nguyn vt


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liu, ngun nng lng, v tt c cc u vo khc t ngi cung cp, v kt thc vithnh phm trong tay ngi tiu dng.

K l bng lit k cc ngun ri ro v ti sn, trch nhim php l v ngunnhn lc c th s dng trong tng khu nhn dng cc ri ro m t chc c th

gp. Cc tn tht tim nng.u im: gn lin vi cc hot ng ca doanh nghip t c th nhn ra c nguyc ca ri ro bt u t ch no trong qu trnh hot ng kp thi tm ra cc bin

php i ph vi ri ro.

Nhc im: ph thuc vo kh nng phn tch caNQT.

3/ phng php thanh tra hin trng: thanh tra hin trng l mt vic phi lmi vi nh qun tr ri ro. Bng cch quan st cc b phn ca t chc v cc hot

ng tip sau ca n, nh qun tr c th hc c rt nhiu v ri ro m t chc cth gp. Cc nghin cu cn thc hin khi s dng phng php thanh tra hin trnggm: v tr a l (thnh th, nng thn, vng su, xa); v tr to lc (trung tm, vngven, khu dn c lao ng, khu cng nghip, t trng); S t chc bn trong cadoanh nghip (khu vc sn xut, kho, phng nghip v, li i, li thot him, ngvn chuyn nguyn vt liu v hng ho); Vn an ninh khu vc; mi trng xungquanh

Tt c nhng vn nghin cu trn u c nhng nh hng nht nh, cu thnh

nn nhng nguyn nhn ri ro tim nng ca doanh nghip.u im: i st thc t, c th nhn ra ri ro m phng php khc khng c c.

Nhc im: ph thuc vo s nhy bn trong quan st ca nh qun tr

4/ Hp tc vi cc b phn khc trong t chc:

Phng php ny thng c s dng nhn dng ri ro trong 1 t chc l nhqun tr ri ro cn thng xuyn giao tip v hp tc vi cc b phn nghip v khctrong cng ty nm bt tnh hnh v nhn dng nhng nguy c ri ro mi.

Hnh ng:

Thng xuyn thm ving cc cn b qun l v nhn vin cc b phn nghipv khc trong doanh nghip nm bt c y cc thng tin v hot ng snxut kinh doanh cng nh cc tn tht t cc hot ng ny.

Tham kho, c cc bo co bng vn bng ca cc b phn nghip v theo hthng bo co thng xuyn, gip cho nh qun tr c th nm bt c nhng thngtin cn thit.

u im: d thc hin nu nh qun tr to mi quan h tt vi cc phng ban.


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Nhc im: kh ngi khc ni ht kh khn, sai lm ca h, cc phng bankhng khai bo tht v hu qu sai lm ca ngi nhn vin phng ban mnh (bnhthnh tch).

5/ Thng qua t vn hay trao i vi chuyn gia:

Thng qua t vn, nh qun tr ri ro c th nm bt thm c nhng thng tin cnthit v mi him ho v nguy c ri ro i vi t chc t ngun tin bn ngoi. Mcch ca t vn l nhm tm kim nhng ri ro m nh qun tr khng thy hay bst.

Cc Nh t vn c th l:

+ Chuyn vin k ton kim ton.

+ Cc lut s ca doanh nghip.

+ Cc nh u t ca DN.

+ Chuyn vin thng k.

u im: khch quan, v c th c c nhng pht hin v ri ro m nh qun trkhng nhn thy.

Nhc im: vn v tit l thng tin c th gp ri ro khc.

6/Phn tch hp ng:Bi v co nhieu rui ro phat sinh t cac quan he hp ongvi nhng ngi khac, nha quan tr rui ro nen nghiencu ky cac hp ong e xem rui ro co tang hay giam quacac hp ong nay.

Chang han:

- Trong mot hp ong thue nha, chu nha va ngi thue

co rat nhieu ieu phai thng lng vi nhau- Cc hp ng kinh t lun b vi phm dn n ri ro php l v ri ro khc pht

sinh trong qu trnh thc hin hp ng. trnh ri ro, gy tn tht, cc hpng kinh t cn phi c nghin cu k tng iu khon. nhng ngi thchin hp ng cn ch kim sot tng iu khon trong hp ng trnh saist dn n kin tng hoc tranh chp. Cc loi ri ro pht sinh t cc hp ngkinh t bao gm:

Ri ro trong k kt hp ng: ri ro ch th, ri ro t ngn ng, ri ro t ni

dung k kt, ri ro php l.


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Ri ro trong thc hin hp ng: ri ro v thi gian giao hng; ri ro trong vnchuyn, bc d, lu kho; ri ro trong nghim thu hng ho.

u im:

Nhc im:

7/ nghin cu cc s liu tn tht trong qu kh

Cc s liu thng k cho php nh qun tr ri ro nh gi cc xu hng ca cctn tht m t chc tri qua v so snh kinh nghim ny vi cc t chc khc. Hnna cc s liu ny cn cho php nh qun tr ri ro phn tch cc vn nh nguynnhn thi im, v tr ca tai nn, tt c cc yu t him ha hoc cc yu t c bitno nh hng n bn cht ca tai nn

S liu thng k cho php chng ta nh gi xu hng pht trin ca cc tn tht

m doanh nghip phi i mt. S liu thng k cho php chng ta nghin cu,phntch mt s vn nh: nguyn nhn, thi im, v tr xy ra s c, ngi b nn vmt s cc yu t nguy him khc c nh hng n bn cht ca tai nn.

S dng h thng thng itn lu tr cc tn tht qu kh, nh qun tr ri ro khiphn tch phi d on c nguyn nhn , a im xy ra tn tht, tng tn tht vcc vn khc c lin quan ti cc ri ro tim nng.

u im: c th pht hin ra nhng ri ro m cc phng php khng pht hin ra

bng cch tham kho cc h s c lu gi v tn tht hoc sut tn tht c th clp li trong tng lai.

Nhc im: pht hin c t nguy c ri ro hn cc phng php khc, khng thp dng khu h thng khng lu tr thng tin v ri ro v tn tht

Chng III: o Lng Ri Ro

Cu 1:: Th no l tn tht trc tip, tn tht gin tip. Cho v d minh ha.

Tn tht trc tip l nhng tn tht ban u v ngi v ti sn khi ri ro xy ra.Vic c lng tn tht trc tip c mt tm quan trng rt ln trong chng trnhqun tr ri ro. Nu chng ta tham quan 1 vng quanh mt nh my sn xut hay mtca hng thng mi, chng ta c th nhn bit tn tht tim nng ca ti sn l rtcao. Cc bo co ti chnh ca nhng nm trc l ngun thng tin qu gi gip chngta c th phn tch cc tn tht ti chnh trc y. Trn c s , chng ta a ra ccgia php ngn nga hay gim thiu ri ro tim nng ca cng ty trong tng lai.

Tn tht gin tip l nhng tn tht hu qu do tn tht trc tip gy ra. Vic clng tng tn tht gin tip kh khn hn nhiu so vi c lng tng tn tht trctip. Chng hn nh: vi bt k mt chic my no, chng ta cng c th c on gi


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tr ca n, nhng chng ta li khng th nhn thy nhng tn tht v thu nhp khi myngng hot ng trong mt thi gian. Chng ta cng khng th bit c my mcthit b hay nh xng s h hng vo lc no, trong bao lu, v mc thit hi cchng khong bao nhiu. gim bt nhng kh khn ny, cc nh qun tr ri rothng ch trng vic c lng v s l dung lng ngun tn tht gin tip.

Cc nh qun tr ri ro cho rng mi mt thit hi trc tip ca ti sn thng lnguyn nhn tim nng dn ti thit hi gin tip ca thu nhp. Trong mt s trnghp, thit hi gin tip c th cn xu hn c thit hi trc tip.

VD: tht thu ca ch ca hng khi ca hng phi ng ca sa cha l tn thtgin tip. Cc chi ph gin tip thng kh thy, mc d hu qu ca n c th lnhn cc chi ph trc tip nhiu.

Cu 2: Phn tch cc quan nim o lng chi ph n ca mt tai nn. Quan im

no c th p dng vo iu kin Vit Nam hin nay.

Quan im ca Heinrich

Theo Heinrich, chi ph tai nn cng nghip thng ch c thy qua cc khon bithng cho cng nhn b nn trong thi gian h khng lm vic v cc chi phthuc men. Tuy nhin chi ph tht s ln hn nhiu, v ng thy cc chi ph n lnhn cc khon bi thng bn ln.

i vi tai nn lao ng, Heinrich ngh xt cc chi ph n sau:

1. Chi ph thi gian b mt ca ngi b nn

2. Chi ph thi gian b mt ca cc cng nhn khc do phi ngng vic gipngi b nn

3. Chi ph thi gian b mt ca cc qun c v cc vin chc khc chun bbo co v o to ngi thay th

4. Chi ph do nguyn liu, my mc, dng c v cc ti sn khc b hng

5. Chi ph ca ngi ch do phi tip tc tr lng y cho ngi b bn khi htr li lm vic, trong khi nng sut ca h, do cha hi phc, c th thp hntrc kia

6. Cc chi ph xy ra nh l hu qu v mt tinh thn ca tai nn (lo s, cngthng).

Heinrich cho rng t s 4-1 c th thay i theo tng khu vc. im chnh caHeinrich, chi ph gin tip rt ng k.

Quan im ca Simonds v Grimaldi


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Simonds v Grimaldi a ra mt cch khc tnh chi ph cho cc tai nn thngthng, trong cc chi ph khng c bo him c trnh by nh cc h sn gin ca chi ph c bo him.

Tng chi ph = chi ph bo him

+ A* s trng hp mt thi gian

+ B* s trng hp a n bc s (khng mt thi gian)

+ C* s trng hp ch cn s cu

+ D* s tai nn khng gy tn thng nhng gy thit hi v ti snvt qu mt gii hn xc nh

Trong A, B, C, D l cc chi ph khng c bo him trung bnh ca tng loi

trng hp trong thi gian quan st.

Quan im Bird v German

Bird v German xut khi nim cc chi ph s ci, s d gi nh th l v n chlin quan n cc chi ph c trong s ci ca cc b phn. Phng php hch tonchi ph tai nn ny khng bao gm tt c cc chi ph tai nn, nhng n a vo mts chi ph khng c bo him thng ln hn chi ph c bo him nhiu ln.

Phng php ny c th p dng cho mi tai nn ch khng phi ch cho cc tai

nn gy tn thng c th hay l ra gy tn thng.

Cc yu t c xem xt trong phng php hch ton nh sau:

1. Nhn lc:

- Tng chi ph tr cp cho cng nhn.

- Lng v chi ph thuc men tr trong thi gian khng lm vic ngoi phntr cp.

- Thi gian b mt trong ngy xy ra tai nn v cc ngy sau .

- Thi gian cng nhn b nn phi lm vic nh hoc nng sut gim.

2. My mc, thit b, nguyn vt liu:

- Chi ph sa cha hoc thay th thit b.

- Thi gian sn xut b mt.

Quan im ca th p dng vo iu kin Vit Nam hin nay l quan im Bird vGerman. V hu ht cc doanh nghip Vit Nam hin nay u s dng s ci trong


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tng b phn theo di cc hot ng c lin quan n ngn lu. V cc nh qun trtrong cc doanh nghip hin nay cng ch quan tm n cc chi ph c ghi ch trong sci, cn cc chi ph khc khng c thng k trong s ci th cha th theo di htc.

Chng IV: Kim Sot Ri Ro

Cu 1: Th no l kim sot ri ro, cc trng hp kim sot ri ro c u tin sdng. Cho v d minh ha.

1. Kim sot ri ro l nhng k thut, nhng cng c, nhng chin thut, vnhng qu trnh nhm bin i ri ro ca mt t chc thng qua vic n trnh,ngn nga, gim thiu bng cch kim sot tn sut v mc ca ri ro v tn

tht hoc li ch.

2. Cc trng hp kim sot ri ro c u tin s dng:

Chi ph ti tr ri ro thng ln hn chi ph tn tht.

Ex: Chi bi thng tai nn gy cht ngi thng t hn chi ph thuc men, y t, trcp cho gia nh nn nhn , gia nh nu ngi khng cht m trng thi thngtt , khng lm vic c sut i

Tn tht pht sinh gin tip hay nhng chi ph n khng c pht hintrong thi gian di.

Ex: Nhn vin bn hng khng trung thc khin cho khch hng khng hi lng v

tuyn truyn nhng iu khng tt v cng ty gy nh hng hnh nh cng ty vdoanh thu ca cng ty.

Tn tht gy nn nhng tc ng bn ngoi nh hng khng tt n tchc.

Ex: Vedan x nc thi cha qua x l lm nh hng mi trng hnh nhthng hiu b ngi tiu dng phn cm.

Cu 2: Phn tch cc k thut kim sot ri ro (ni dung u nhc im).Cho v d cho tng k thut.

Qun tr ri ro c xem l mt ngh thut, bi dng nhtnh sng to ng mt vai tr quan trng trong qu trnh ny.Chng trnh kim sot ri ro c th khc nhau gia t chc ny

v t chc khc da vo kt qu ca tnh sang to v s imi, tuy nhin vn c s phn loi v nhng phng php v


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cng c kim sot ri ro. Nhng cng c v k thut kim sotri ro c th c phn nhm theo cc hnh thc sau:

N trnh ri ro.

Ngn nga tn tht.

Gim thiu tn tht.

Qun tr thng tin.

Mt s hnh thc chuyn giao ri ro.

- N trnh ri ro:

Mt trong nhng phng php kim sot ri ro c th l ntrnh nhng hot ng, con ngi, ti sn lm pht sinh tntht c th c bi khng tha nhn n ngay t u or bi loi bnguyn nhn dn ti tn tht c tha nhn. Bin php utin ca hot ng n trnh ri ro l ch ng n trnh trckhi ri ro xy ra v bin php th 2 l loi b nhng nguynnhn gy ri ro.

VD: Mt cng vin gii tr nh c chuyn giao cho chnh

quyn. Cng vin ny c nhiu xe nga cho tr em chi cc NQT ri ro kim tra v h cho rng nhng chic xe ngany rt nguy him. Sauk hi thng lng gia chnh quyn vngi thc hin di chc, h bn nhng chic xe c nt ny vtng mnh t trng cho chnh quyn s ti. Chnh quyn bin mnh t ny thnh mt cng vin ln. Cng vin bao gmmt s khu vn, vi phun nc v ng i do. Trong trnghp ny, bn c c th thy rng chnh quyn s ti khng

ch ng n trnh ngun gc ri ro (cng vin) m ch n trnhnguyn nhn gy ra ri ro (nhng chic xe nga).

Thng qua VD trn, chng ta c th thy rng khng philc no n trnh cng l mt vn c xc nh r rng. Bivy, trong nhiu tnh hung, s n trnh thnh cng l vn xc nh ri ro nh th no hn l vic p dng k thut ntrnh ri ro.

S n trnh ri ro thng qua vic loi b nhng nguynnhn gy ri ro khng hon ton ph bin nh ch ng ntrnh trc khi ri ro xy ra.


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VD: Mt NQT ri ro ca mt trng i hc chng li vicphc v nhng ung c mi ru ti trng i hc bi trchnhim php l.

Mt cty qun l chung c quyt nh di h bi ra khi khuvc chung c ny v phn ln nhng ngi thu nh u c connh.

Trong nhiu trng hp vic n trnh tuyt i khng ththc hin c. Cng c nhiu ri ro c xc nh l thit hiv ti sn, th cng chc chn rng vic n trnh l khng ththc hin c.

VD: i vi hu ht sinh vin i hc, ri ro quan trngnht m h phi ng u l kh nng kim tin trong tnglai, y l ri ro khng th n trnh c.

Mt ngi ch khng th n trnh nhng CP ti tr chotht nghip do vic tham gia vo chng trnh bo him l btbuc.

u im:

Ch ng loi b nhng nguyn nhn gy ra ri ro.

Gn nh trnh c ri ro phi gnh chu.

Ch ng loi b hot ng gy ra ri ro. n gin ho, hiu qu, CP thp.

Nhc im:

Ri ro v li ch cng tn ti.

Ri ro v bt nh lun tn ti trong mi hot ng ca

con ngi.

Trong nhiu tnh hung khng th t ra gii php ntrnh.

- Ngn nga tn tht:

Cc bin php ngn nga tn tht tn cng vo cc ri robng cch gim bt s lng tn tht xy ra (tc gim tn suttn tht) or bng cch lm gim mc thit hi khi tn tht xyra. Nhn t chnh sch cng ng, vic ngn nga v gim thiu

tn tht c li th r rng trong vic ngn nga v gim thmthiu tn tht cho t chc ring bit cng nh cho x hi trong


22/38

khi vn cho php t chc bt u or tip tc hot ng gy nnri ro .

Chng trnh ngn nga tn tht tm cch gim bt slng cc tn tht xy ra or loi b chng hon ton. y,chui ri ro l rt quan trng v cc hot ng ngn nga ri rotm cch can thip vo ba mt xch u tin ca chui: s nguyhim, mi trng rui ro, s tng tc gia mi nguy him vmi trng. iu c ngha l cc hot ng ngn nga ri rotp trung vo:

Thay th or sa i mi him ho.

Thay th or sa i mi trng ni mi him nguy tn

ti.

Can thip vo quy trnh tc ng ln nhau gia s nguy

him v mi trng.

Nhng VD v vic ngn nga tn tht minh ho cch thcnhng chin thut ny tp trung vo 3 mt xch u tin cachui ri ro:

a) Hot ng ngn nga tn tht tp trung vo mi him

ho.


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b) Hot ng ngn nga ri ro tp trung vo mi trng riro.

( ly 1 v d minh ha v din gii chi tit)

STT

Mi trng Hot ng ngn nga tntht

1 Sn ca mt ca tim

trn trt do du

Lp t b mt ht m, chng

trn trt2 Xa l, ng cao tc Xy dng ro cn, chiu sangbng hiu v du hiu giaothng

3 Lc lng lao ng co to khng ph hp

o to

4 Ch tiu cng cng Hng dn y v snphm v cnh bo

5 Dn c nghin ma tu T vn, cha tr, iu tra6 Kin trc d chy Xy dng h thng chng la7 Bi u xe khng c Chiu sang, bo v v dch v

STT Nguy him Hot ng ngn ngatn tht

1 Gi nh bt cn Chng trnh hun luyn v

theo di2 Nn lt Xy p, qun l ngun nc3 Ht thuc Cm ht thuc, tch thu vt

liu lin quan n ht thuc4 Nn nhim Ban hnh quy nh, chnh

sch v vic s dng v thicc cht gy nhim

5 Va h b chim dng, hhng, li lm

Gii to, cm bun bn, sacha

6 V sinh thc phm km a ra quy nh, tng cngkim tra

7 Say ru khi li xe Cm nghim ngt, b t8 Thiu thng tin v mt s

hot ngNghin cu, iu tra

9 My cn, my p Hng dn y v an to,cnh bo, b phn bo v


24/38

chiu sng an ninh8 Nhn vin li xe giao

hngo to, gio dc ti x

c) Hot ng ngn nga tn tht tp trung vo s tng

tc gia mi nguy him v mi trng. ( ly 1 v d minh ha v

din gii chi tit)

STT S tng tc Hot ng ngn ngatn tht

1 Mt quy trnh si nng c thlm nng cc thit b xung

quanh

H thng lm nguibng nc

2 Cng nhn bc d hang hokhng ng cch

S dng dy ai h tr

3 Xe c trt trn ng trn Dng thng ngc chiukim ng h

4 Cnh st phng chy chachy

o qun thch hp chngchy

5 Tiu dung sn phm nguy

him

c tnh an ton, gip

NTD6 Hi ng thnh ph cn nhccc vn c quyn

Ti liu minh chngquyt nh, bn bo cohp php ca hp ng

7 Thng d tr ngm b r r du Nim phong hai ln8 Chuyn thit b ch to sn

phm n mt nc cha phttrin

Hot ng quan h vichnh quyn a phng

u im: Ch ng tc ng vo 3 hot ng ngn

nga ri ro:

Thay th or sa i mi him ho.

Thay th or sa i mi trng.

Thay th or sa i c ch tng tc.

- Gim thiu ri ro:


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Cc bin php gim thiu tn tht tn cng vo cc ri robng cch gim bt gi tr h hi khi tn tht xy ra (tc gimnh s nghim trng ca tn tht).

Nhng chng trnh gim thiu tn tht c xngnhm lm gim mc thit h.

VD: H thng vi phun nc s gim thiu tn tht bi vkhi c la th cc vi phun nc hot ng, mt h thng nhth th khng lm gim i kh nng b tn tht. Thay vo , hthng cha chy lm gim mc tn tht khi ho hon xy ra.

Nhng hot ng gim thiu tn tht l nhng bin phpsau khi tn tht xy ra. Mc d nhng bin php ny ct ra trc khi tn tht no xut hin, nhng chc nng ormc ch ca nhng bin php ny l lm gim tc ng catn tht mt cch hiu qu nht. Nhng chng trnh gimthiu tn tht l s tho thun ngm trong qun tr ri ro rngmt vi tn tht no c th xy ra d cho c nhng cgng, n lc ht sc ca t chc. V th, chng ta nn thc hinth t nhng bc sau nhm kim sot tn tht v gim mc thit hi ca n.

Trc ht, nim v chui ri ro c a ra minh ho

vic ngn nga tn tht can thip vo 3 mc xch u ca chuiri ro nh th no? Gim thiu tn tht tp trung vo mt xchth 3 (ch thnh thong, khng thng xuyn) v mt xch th 4v th 5 (thng thng hn): s tc ng qua li gia mi himho v mi trng, kt qu v hu qu. Nhng n lc gimthiu tn tht ch c th tp trung vo mt xch th 3 (s tcng qua li gia mi him ho v mi trng) khi m binphp gim thiu tn tht can thip ngng tn tht li khi n

ang din ra.VD: H thng cha chy bng kh: S tc ng qua li giami him ho v mi trng lm cc vt liu d chy pht ho.

Trong khi s tc ng qua li ny xut hin, h thng cha chybng kh phn ng li v lm gim s nh hng, tc ng cbn ch yu ca ngn la.

Mt xch th 4 v th 5 c xng sau khi tn thtxut hin v nh qun tr ri ro phi ti thiu ho kt qu v

hu qu ca tn tht.


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VD: Chn tay ca mt cng nhn b phng nng. Mt binphp gim thiu tn tht l phi m bo cho anh ta c angay lp tc vo mt trung tm iu tr phng c chuyn mn.

a) Cu ly nhng TS cn use c.

Mt bin php gim thiu tn tht c use rng ri lcu ly nhng TS cn use c. Him khi t chc b thit hihon ton v NQT ri ro c th ti thiu ho tn tht thng quavic cu ly nhng TS cn li.

VD: Mt chic xe hi c th b bn lm ph liu trong khimt b phn thit b h hng nhng sa cha c c th embn ch c. Cty bo him thu hi nhng TS cn li sau tntht nhm ti thiu ho tc ng ca nhng tn tht m h

phi gnh chu. V NQT ri ro phi bit c k thut gimthiu tn tht ny.b) S chuyn n.

Mt k thut gim thiu khc c cp y l schuyn n bng cch mua bo him ca cty bo him.

VD: Trong qu trnh qun tr ri ro, mt ngi ch cchng trnh bi thng cho NL t bo him c th c bihon nhng phc li m h tr cho NL b tai nn. H lp h

s khi kin bn th 3 v bn ny chu trch nhim v thngtt ca NL. Chng hn nh my sn xut my mc lm cngnhn b thng.

S chuyn n cng c th c xem xt nh li nh mtbin php gim thiu tn tht nhm ti hu qu lu di ca tntht. S chuyn n cng l mt cng c qun tr tranh chp.Qun tr tranh chp tr thnh mt b phn ca nhng chinlc or chin thut c gng kim sot or lm gim hu qu ca

nhng hnh ng hp php lm ny sinh ra tn tht. Nhngbin php c bit c use l gii quyt tranh chp bng trngti, ho gii, nhng chin thut v l thuyt ho gii, nhng nlc quan h cng ng nhm gii quyt quan im quan imchung ca to n.

c) K hoch gii quyt nhng him ho.

Nhng k hoch gii quyt him ho or nhng bin c bt

ng l mt s tip cn hp nht i vi s gim thiu tn tht.Mt k hoch gii quyt nhng him ho l mt n lc to lnca t chc trong vic xc nh nhng khng hong or tai ho


27/38

c th xy ra v thit lp cc k hoch i ph vi nhngbin c ny. K hoch phng nga nhng bt trc thng baogm mt qu trnh nghin cu v nh gi tng i di nhngcui cng cng phi nhng li cho mt k hoch ngu nhin cth use c trong trng hp t chc b tn tht. Nhng hotng di y l mt phn ca nhng k hoch phng nganhng him ho, ri ro:

1. Nhng nhn vin c tri qua hun luyn.

2. Lu tr h s c vi tnh ho.

3. Kim tra thng xuyn hon thin h thng

cha chy.

4. Bo m tn dng t vic cho cc t chc vay.5. Hun luyn nhn vin v cc trng hp an ton

khn cp.

6. Lp k hoch v cch i ph vi nhng him ho

thong qua b phn cha chy v cc t chc chnh ph c lin

quan.

7. Kh nng chuyn t lnh sang nng ca my tnh.8. Sa i li cu trc, VD nh lp t h thng tng

ngn chy.

9. Pht trin chin lc v nhng mi quan h cng

ng.

10. Thnh lp cc i cp cu khn cp.

d) S d phng.Tin s George Head a ra mt phng php gim thiutn tht c bit l s d phng. Mt ti sn d phng khngc use tr khi c ri ro xy ra. S d phng thng c usetrong nhng trng hp c tn tht gin tip, l nhng tn thtny sinh t nhng tn tht trc tip ti TS. Trong nhng trnghp nh th, khi tn tht xy ra s d phng lm gim s lngthit hi bng cch gim or loi tr tn tht gin tip. N

thng ng vai tr kp trong vic ngn nga v gim thiu tntht. S d phng lm gim kh nng tn tht gin tip xy ra


28/38

bi v TS d phng sn sang c use nu TS nguyn thukhng cn use c na.

VD: D li h s trong my vi tnh, lu tr h s l mt VDv gi tr ca d phng. Nhng thit hi v h s nhn vin,khon phi thu, nhng ti liu gii quyt cng vic KD haynhng tin tc ti chnh c th tr thnh mt vn nghimtrng cho t chc.

e) Phn chia ri ro.

S phn chia ri ro l mt k thut trong mt t chc cgng ngn cch nhng ri ro ca n vi nhau thay v cho phpchng gy hi cho mt s kin n l.

VD:

Nhng bc tng ngn la trong mt cu trc. N chiapha bn trong ca cu trc thnh nhiu ngn ring bit bng

cc cht liu chng la.

Lut i hi cc nhn vin trong mt c s bn l phi

chuyn tin mt vt qu mc quy nh t ngi thu ngn ti

mt ni anh ton hn, VD ngn hang.

Lut yu cu xe hi trong mt chic tu ch hang phic lu gi trong nhiu ni khc nhau thay v trong cng mt

ni.

ng lc ng sau ca s phn chia ri ro l lm gim sbt k s ph thuc gia nhng ri ro ca t chc bng cchlm gim s ging nhau m mt s kin n l tc ng tonb nhng ri ro ca t chc. Hnh ng phn chia ri ro n l

mc d c khuynh hng lm gim nhng tn tht do tai ho.Hiu qu ca vic phn chia ri ro tu thuc vo loi TS vnguyn nhn ca tn tht.

VD: Tn tr hang ho trong mt s nh kho c phn btrong sut din tch dm vung th c th lm gim tn thtdo ho hon. Tuy nhin nu nh kho nm vng bin th chngvn c th b ma bo gy nguy him.

- Qun tr thng tin:


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Thng tin bt ngun t phng qun tr ri ro ca mt tchc c mt nh hng quan trng trong vic gim thiu nhngbt nh ca nhng ngi c quyn li gn lin vi t chc.

VD: nhn bit li ch ln nht t chng trnh kim sotri ro, nhng mc tiu v kt qu tch cc ca n phi ctruyn t n nhng ngi c quyn li gn vi t chc quantm kt qu nh: nhn vin, ch n, cty bi him, th ch chnhph, ngi ng thu

Nu thiu thng tin lm cho nhng ngi c quyn li gnlin vi t chc khng an tm v chng trnh hot ng ca tchc c nh hng n li ch ca h. S bt nh lm cho hphi tr gi cao cho hng ho v dch v or i hi s bo m,or nhng hn ch c nh hng bt li n t chc. Thng tinng tin cy t phng qun tr ri ro c th cung cp cho nhngngi c quyn li gn lin vi t chc s m bo rng t chckhng v s khng hnh ng c hi n li ch ca h.

Mt lnh vc khc m th ng tin c th hn ch s bt nhl s hiu bit ca c nhn v qu trnh to nn tn tht, VDnh chui ri ro. S hiu bit v tin trnh nhng mi him hoxy ra gy tn tht c th gim thiu s bt nh cc i

tng c lin quan, bi v s hiu bit ny cho php ta d bott hn v nhng trng hp tn tht c th xy ra v t gip cc c nhn cnh gic phng nga.

nng cao kh nng hiu bit vn ny, chng ta usephng php bo co v h thng tng thng cho nhngnhn vin c ngh v nhng hot ng an ton hn.

u im: Ngn nga thng tin kp thi, chnh xc s hn

ch ri ro m t chc gp phi trong tng lai.

Nhc im: S bt nh v s hiu bit c nhn v qu

trnh to nn tn tht.

- Chuyn giao ri ro:

Chuyn giao ri ro l cng c kim sot ri ro, to ra nhiuthc th khc nhau thay v mt thc th phi gnh chu ri ro.Chuyn giao ri ro c th thc hin bng 2 cch:

Th nht: chuyn TS v hot ng c ri ro n mt

ngi hay mt nhm ngi khc.


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VD: Mt t chc bn mt trong nhng to nh ca h v

chuyn giao ri ro lin quan n quyn s hu to nh cho

ngi ch mi.

Khi thc hin hp ng, thng thng mt cty gnh chu

tn tht l s gia tng gi c lao ng v nguyn vt liu, do

m bo cho nh my ca cty hot ng cty c th thu cc

hp ng ph c gi n nh.

Hnh thc chuyn giao ri ro ny c lin quan mt thit vimt bin php n trnh ri ro l loi b nhng nguyn nhn gy

ri ro. y l mt bin php kim sot ri ro v n loi b nhngtn tht tm n gy hi cho t chc, ng thi trnh b hu bhp ng v ri ro ca hp ng c chuyn n c nhn ort chc khc.

Th hai: chuyn giao bng hp ng giao c, ch

chuyn giao ri ro khng chuyn giao TS v hot ng ca n

n ngi nhn ri ro.

VD: Ngi i thu nh phi chu trch nhim thit hi v nh

mnh thu.

Ngi bn l chu trch nhim v thit hi sn phm sau

khi nh sn xut giao hang cho d nh sn xut l ra phi

chu trch nhim.

Ngi tiu th c th khng khiu ni v nhng thit hiTS v con ngi do li ca sn phm hay dch v.

u im: CP thp, loi b ri ro m t chc phi gnh

chu.

Nhc im:

C nhng trng hp ph chuyn giao ri ro cao so vi

vic t chc gi li ri ro.


31/38

i vi cch thc hin th nht c th c nhng nhc

im nh trong bin php n trnh ri ro.

N c b hn ch bi kh nng chi tr ca ngi nhn ri

ro.

- a dng ho:

y l mt n lc ca t chc lm gim s tc ng catn tht ln ton b cty. Cng gn ging nh phn chia ri ronhm gim thiu tn tht, a dng ho cng c gng phn chiatng ri ro ca cty thnh nhiu dng khc nhau v tn dng skhc bit dung may mn ca ri ro ny b p tn tht chori ro khc. K thut ny thng use nhiu ri ro suy on, c

bit l trong u t chng khon Portfolio. Portflio thng gi lb chng khon, danh mc chng khon hay cu trc chngkhon hay cu trc chng khon. Bng cch kho lo la chncc chng khon trong b Portfolio ph thuc vo cc bin yusau:

1. H s tng quan gia cc thnh phn tham gia

(chng khon).

2. Ri ro ring ca tng thnh phn.3. T trng cc thnh phn Portfolio.

4. S lng cc thnh phn.

VD: Hai hng nc ngt ni ting TG l Pepsi Cola v CocaCola c tng quan kh nghch chiu trong mt th trng no, chng hn nh VN, nu chng ta cng mt lc lm i lcho c hai hang vi t trng c phn chia u chng ta c

th an tm v lc no chng ta cng c th bn c hng.L thuyt v a dng ho khng ch ng dng trong u tchng khon m c th vn dng trong rt nhiu hot ngkhc nhau ca DN: nh a dng ho th trng, a dng hosn phm, a dng KH

u im: CP thp, hiu qu. Phn tn ri ro phi gnh

chu.


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Nhc im: Rt kh chn ra cc chng khon trong

b Portfolio (danh mc u t) v i vi nhng ri ro th trng

khng th use bin php ny c.

Cu 3: Phn tch cc n lc KSRR ca Chnh Ph-XH, lin h iu kin Vit Nam.

Cho nhn xt.

N lc ca cc t chc ring l v phi li nhun.

S lit k cc t chc ring l v phi li nhun hotng trong lnh vc kim sot ri ro cho thy phm vi ca cchot ng v dch v. C l trong s ny, Hi ng an ton laong quc gia l t chc ni ting nht. Hi ng ny bao gmcc c nhn, cng ty KD, trng hc, cc phng ban ca chnhph, cc t chc lao ng, cty bo him

- T chc bo him Hoa K: thong bo rng ri v mc

v nguyn nhn ca nhng tn tht do ho hon gy ra, iu

tra nhng trng hp h nghi ng ngi mua bo him t t

c s KD ca mnh nhn tin bi thng, nh gi s t

qun l da trn mc tn tht do ho hon v cng tc

phng chy cha chy, xut nhng iu l an ton.

- T chc ti tr th nghim an ton: tin hnh th

nghim cc trang thit b (tivi, dy in, dng c an ton)

quyt nh cc thit b ny c p ng c tiu chun an ton

hay cha.- T chc phng chy cha chy quc gia: thnh lp tiu

chun v iu l khuyn khch cc hot ng kim sot tn tht

cc b, xc tin cc bin php an ton phng chng ho hon,

gio dc cng chng v khuyn khch cc thnh vin ca t

chc k c cng chc chp nhn nhng xut c a ra.


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- T chc bo him an ton trn ng cao tc: tr gip

ti chnh cho cc t chc lien quan n an ton giao thng v

cng gip trc tip nhng tiu bang c la chn.

- Phng bo v chng mt cp xe.

Nhng n lc ca chnh ph.

Chnh ph can thip vo vic kim sot tn tht v: Li ch cng cng thng i hi chnh ph ban hnh

o lut yu cu mi ngnh cng nghip cung cp thng tn,

p ng nhng tiu chun tt yu v chm dt nhng hot

ng khng thch hp.

Chnh ph c th cung cp mt s dch v c hiu qu

v tit kim hn cho cc DN t nhn s phng chy cha chy.

Chnh ph thc hin trch nhim ny thng qua mt lotcc n lc gio dc khc nhau (truyn n, bo tng, hi ngh)v thng qua cc o lut, quy nh nhm kim sot vic xydng, iu kin lm vic, trang thit b an ton, qun o bo hlao ng, din tch lm vic ti a trong cc phng v trong

thang my, cc phng tin tiu thot nc v vic vn hnhcc xe c gii.

Cc nh kinh t ghi nhn rng mt s kha cnh ca ri rodn n nhu cu cn c s can thip ca chnh ph. Hai cim c cp y l cc yu t bn ngoi v hng hocng.

Cc yu t bn ngoi l CP v li nhun m mt th

trng hot ng bnh thng khng nm bt c.VD: nhim mi trng. Mt x nghip sn xut c th

lm nhim mi trng gy hi cho mt cng ng dn c lncn. Ci gi phi tr cho cng ng dn c ny rt ln, vt quagi tr ca sn phm do x nghip gy nhim sn xut ra.

Hng ho cng cng l hng ho hoc dch v khng

th b hn ch i vi ngi mua, trao i n.

VD: Quc phng. T bn cht ca n, quc phng l mtli nhun cho mi ngi dn d h c tr hay khng tr CP choquc phng.


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Trong c hai trng hp, cc yu t bn ngoi v hng hocng ngi ta hy vng chnh ph s can thip iu chnh gic ca hng ho v dch v hoc nhng ri ro i vi cc phahu quan.

Trong iu kin vit nam hin nay, chnh ph c nhngn lc kim sot ri ro trong cc lnh vc nh:

Vic nh nc lun sa i ban hnh cc o lut mi gipcho vic qun l, iu hnh x hi ca nh nc c thun lihn, gip cho x hi n nh, nn kinh t pht trin. Nh nclun i u vi nhiu ri ro khc nhau, trn tng lnh vc nhnc lun c cc b phn chuyn trch, cc trung tm nghincu nhm a ra cc bin php kim sat ri ro.

V d: Nh nc kim sot 1 s ngnh quan trng trongnn kinh t nhm gi vng kh nng iu tit x hi tm vm, vic ban hnh cc b lut v ph cp gio dc, khm chabnh min ph cho ngi ngho...m bo cuc sng cho ngidn.

Chng V: Ti Tr Ri Ro

Cu 1: Th no l ti tr ri ro? Cc hnh thc phn loi ti tr ri ro. Cho v dminh ha.

(son li cu ny, xem li file ti gi cho em)

Ti tr ri ro l nhng k thut v cng c c s dng ti tr cho chi phca ri ro v tn tht.

Phn loi:

Da vo thi gian: Ti tr ri ro qu kh

Ti tr ri ro hin tiTi tr ri ro tng lai.

Ti tr ri ro qu kh Ti tr ri ro hin ti Ti tr ri ro tnglai

. Khi doanh nghipb kin hng thngphi bi thng 1khon tin no .

.i ng xe h , lytin ra sa khng cnlp qu d phng.

. Lp qu d phng x l nhng tainn lao ng. Mua bo him chonh kho phngho hon.


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Da theo ngi gnh chu tn tht: Lu gi tn tht

Chuyn giao ti tr

V d

Lu gi tn tht Chuyn giao ti tr . Trch qu d phng khi ri ro do tai nnlao ng gii quyt

. Lp qu d phng gii quyt vn khiu kin ca khch hng

. Mua bo him cho l hng trn ngvn chuyn.

. Mua bo him cho ngi lao ng

Cu 2: Phn tch cc k hoch lu gi tn tht. Cho v d minh ha.

Khng chun btrc

Ti khon d phng Ti sn d phng Bo him trc h

. Khi tn tht xy rat chc dng ngnsch ca mnh hocvay mn bithng.

Nhc im: Cchot ng sn xutca t chc c th

b nh hng bikt qu ti chnh btng.

Ex: c nhn no khng c tin d

phng khi c bnhhoc tai nn cn stin ln phi i vay/mn.

.T chc s hnhthnh mt ti khonn gii quyt tntht ngoi d tnh

Ex: ngn hng lp

ti khon d phng i ph vi nxu.

. T chc c th gitin mt hay ccu t d chuynthnh tin mt thanh ton cho cc

tn tht khng cbo him

.Nhc im : Linhun ca ti sntin mt hoc ccti sn gn nh tinmt c th thp sovi u t chkhc.

Ex:

C nhn/ t chcgi tin mt hayngoi t/ vng x l s c xy ranh tai nn, ..

.Bo him trc h lngi bo him vngi bo himcng thuc 1 tchc.

C nhiu hnh thcbo hm trc h:

1.c s hu biton b cng ty Trc h thun tu

2.L s hu chungca 1 nhm cng ty

trc h tp ton.3.L s hu chungca 1 nhm thnhvin thuc hithng mi.

Ex: tp on dukh c cng ty vdu kh, v bo

him. Cng ty dukh mua bo him


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ca cng ty cngthuc 1 tp on.

Cu 3: Phn tch cc hnh thc chuyn giao ti tr ri ro? Cho v d minh ha.

Trnh by khi nim: chuyn giao ti tr ri ro?

Cc hnh thc chuyn giao:

Lu : loi ri ro (thun ty hay suy on) p dng hnh thc chuyn giao ti trri ro

Chuyn giao bnghp ng bo

him

Chuyn giao bnghp ng phi bo

him

Hedging trung ho ri ro

. L hnh thctrong ngi

bo him chpnhn gnh vc

phn tn tht tichnh khi ri roxut hin.

Ex: Hp ng bohim l hng int vn chuyn tM sang Vit

Nam.

. L phng phpti tr ri ro trong hp ngchuyn tn tht chomt cng ty khc( khng phi cngty bo him )

Ex: Ch nhchuyn giao v tntht v ri ro tainn lao ng choch thu xy dng

. L mt giao dch ti chnh trong phnc ( thng ) trong mt hp ng s cdng b p cho phn thua ( tn tht )ca mt giao dch khc.

Ex: Nh nhp khu t cn thanh ton 1triu USD v 1 triu EURO trong 6 thngti. ng thi nh nhp khu mua hp ng

tng lai 6 thng 1 triu USD bng VNDvi t gi 20000 VND = 1 USD. V mua khn 6 thng 1 triu EURO vi t gi 25000VND = 1 EURO .Su thng sau t gi thct l 21000 VND = 1 USD v 24500 VND =1 EURO.Vy ta thy hp ng k hn muaUSD ny gip nh nhp khu li 1 t VND

b p cho phn thua l trong hp ng muaEURO.

Cu 4: Phn tch gia chuyn giao kim sot v chuyn giao ti tr ri ro. Cho vd minh ha.

Chuyn giao kim sot?

Chuyn giao ti tr ri ro?

Phn tch:

Chuyn giao kim sot Chuyn giao ti tr ri ro


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Bao gm cch hot ng sau:

Th nht: Chuyn ti sn v hot ngri ro n mt ngi hay mt nhmngi khc. V d: Mt t chc bn mttrong nhng ta nh ca h v chuyn

giao ri ro lin quan n quyn s huta nh cho ngi ch mi. Khi thchin hp ng, thng thng mt cngty gnh chu tn tht l s gia tnggi c lao ng v nguyn vt liu, do m bo cho nh my ca cngty hot ng cng ty c th thu cchp ng ph c gi n nh.

Hnh thc chuyn giao ri ro ny c lin

quan mt thit vi mt bin php ntrnh ri ro l loi b nhng nguynnhn gy ri ro. y l mt bin phpkim sot ri ro v n loi b nhng tntht tim n gy hi cho t chc, ngthi trnh b hy b hp ng v ri roca hp ng c chuyn n c

nhn hoc t chc khc2. Loi tr hocgim thiu trch nhim ca ngi chuyngiao i vi tn tht cho ngi c

chuyn giao

V d:

Th hai: chuyn giao bng hp nggiao c, ch chuyn giao ri ro khngchuyn giao ti sn v hot ng can lin quan n ngi nhn ri ro. Vd: Ngi i thu nh phi chu trchnhim thit hi v cn nh mnh thu

Ngi bn l chu trch nhim v thithi sn phm sau khi nh sn xut giao hng cho d nh sn xut l raphi chu trch nhim. Ngi tiu thc th khng khiu ni v nhng thithi ti sn v con ngi do li ca snphm v dch v

. Cung cp ngun kinh ph bn ngoi cdng thanh ton tn tht khi c ri roxut hin.

Ex: Mua bo him tai nn cho ngi lao

ng, cho nh my, hng ho....(xem li file ti gi b sung cho y)

Cu 5: Trong iu kin Vit Nam hin nay khi cn nhc gia lu gi v chuyn

giao ti tr ri ro cn lu n vn g? Cho v d.- Nhn thc v ri ro ca ngi Vit Nam cn thp, v th bin php gim thiu tn


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tht cn cha c s dng trit . Khi cn nhc gi lu tr v ri ro ta nn lu nnhng vn sau:

Nhn thc ng v ri ro: hn ch tn tht do ri ro gy ra chng ta cnphi nhn thc ng n v n. Cc nhn bit ri ro c th xy ra, o lng , ng ph

v ti tr nh th no.Ex: V tm tu Dn K do khng nhn thc v ri ro ng n v hng dn cch xl khi c x c xy ra . V chm tu Dn K gy thit hi ln v ngi v ti sn.

Kh nng gnh chu tn tht ca c nhn/ t chc . Nu c nhn/ t chc ckh lu tr ti tr cho tn tht v xt thm yu t khc nh chi ph v li ch,.. nhnthy c kh nng th ta nn chn lu gi. Ngc li tn tht qu ln vt ngoi khnng ca c nhn v t chc ta nn chn chuyn giao ri ro.

Ex: Kh nng ti tr khc phc s c ha hon nh my l trong kh nng ca t chcth t chc c th chn gii php l lu tr. Cn nu chi ph khc phc hu qu hahon v nh my gy thit hi v vt cht v con ngi l qu ln th t chc nn chngii php chuyn giao ri ro ny.

Cn nhc chi ph c hi gia lu gi v chuyn giao ri ro .Khi chi ph gia

vic lu gi > chi ph chuyn giao chn chuyn giao. Khi chi ph gia vic lu gi

< chi ph chuyn giao chn lu gi

Ex: So snh chi ph duy tr thit b chng chy v vt liu chng chy , chi phhun luyn thc ca nhn vin v chy n. V chi ph mua bo him ha hon chonh my . Nu cho ph no thp hn th t chc nn chn gii php .

bai soan quan tri rui ro-2

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