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EUROPEAN ACADEMIC RESEARCH

Vol. II, Issue 8/ November 2014

Impact Factor: 3.1 (UIF)

DRJI Value: 5.9 (B+)

An Economic Evaluation of Feasibility of Non-

Motorized Transport Facilities in Mombasa Town of

Kenya

Dr. DIPTI RANJAN MOHAPATRA Associate Professor (Economics)

School of Business and Economics

Madawalabu University

Bale Robe, Ethiopia

Abstract:

Kenya Municipal Programme (KMP) with the support from

World Bank underlined the need of promotion of Non-Motorized

Transport (NMT) facilities in selected towns. To realize this, an

economic evaluation of the feasibility of non-motorized transport

facilities in Mombasa town has been carried out. The proposed NMT

facilities are grouped into Structures, Footpaths, Cycle Tracks and

Traffic Calming Measures. Benefit Cost technique has been adopted as

method of economic evaluation. The costs of the proposed facilities

have been derived by engineering cost estimate. Benefit to NMT users

accrue when dedicated NMT infrastructure is created. Provision of

appropriate infrastructure has both short and long term benefits. The

long term benefits are more complex and quantification of these

benefits is more complex. The present analysis is confined to the short

term benefits, accruing over a 5 year period. The quantum of benefits

in term of saving in productivity loss and time saving has been

estimated. The construction is expected to be completed in one year.

Benefits start accruing from 2nd year onwards. The benefits and costs

have been discounted at a rate of 12% to derive the NPV in the first

year. A factor of 0.85 has been adopted to convert financial costs into

economic costs. The Benefit Cost (B/C) Ratio for provision of Footpaths

is estimated to be 17.22, Cycle Tracks to be 0.74, Foot Over Bridges to

be 0.51 and traffic calming measure to be 17.56. The overall B/C ratio

Dipti Ranjan Mohapatra- An Economic Evaluation of Feasibility of Non-

Motorized Transport Facilities in Mombasa Town of Kenya

EUROPEAN ACADEMIC RESEARCH - Vol. II, Issue 8 / November 2014

10914

is 8.41. Overall the proposed investment programmes are economically

viable.

Key words: Benefit-Cost Ratio, NPV, economic viability, non-

motorized transport

1.0 Introduction:

Kenya is experiencing high growth of population and

urbanization. The population, which was 38 million in 2009

(Census of Kenya, 2009), is estimated to increase to 74 million

by 2030 and urbanization from 34% to more than 50%. The

Kenya Vision 2030 envisages a sustained economic growth of

10% up to 2030. Such a growth will induce high urbanization

and in turn depends on urban areas for services, technologies

and infrastructure. Urban areas need to play a prominent role

in Kenya’s development.

Restructuring and reformation of urban infrastructure

and institutions are critical in this development process.

Government of Kenya, has initiated the Kenya Municipal

Programme (KMP) with support from World Bank, the Agence

Francaise de Development (AFD) and the Swedish

International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA) (KMP

Project 2012-13). KMP has the overall objectives to strengthen

local governance and improve urban service delivery. The KMP,

under the third component, has recognized the importance of

Non-Motorized Transport (NMT) in enabling mobility of the

people of the towns. One of the components includes promotion

of Non-Motorized Transport modes to enable mobility of the

people. In the KMP, several towns of Kenya including Mombasa

have been selected for provision of NMT facilities. Here we have

chosen Mombasa as it is the second biggest town of Kenya as

well as the one of the major port towns of east Africa.

Appreciation of the traffic and travel characteristics of

the study town is important to plan for the transport facilities




10915

in general and NMT facilities in particular. Mombasa is an

important and fast growing town in Kenya. Its population,

presently 0.94 million (2009), is envisaged to be nearly 2 million

by 2031 (Census of Kenya, 2009). Mombasa has a good road

network of sound form and reasonable capacity. International

trunk road A109 runs through the town. It provides high

accessibility to the town. On the other hand the high speed high

volume traffic is a major cause of congestion and accidents. The

availability of road capacity in Mombasa is reasonable but not

sufficient. The carriageway is generally of 2-lanes. Road

reserves are good. The availability of footpath is poor. There is

no exclusive cycle track. Condition of footpaths is not good.

There are obstructions by parked vehicles and vendors. The

traffic volumes on roads are high with a maximum of 29,117

vehicles (12 hours) on Jomo Kenyatta Avenue. The share of

NMT modes is reasonable, up to 23%. Pedestrian volumes are

very high. Nkrumah road had 34,124 pedestrians over a 14

hour period (Traffic Survey Result 2013 of KNMT project, 2012-

13). Traffic Management along the road network is poor. 44% of

road lengths do not have signage.

NMT users were mostly males (59%); young (35% in age

group 26-35 years); large number of students (15%); and had an

average income of Kenyan Shilling (Ksh.) 9000/- per month.

NMT trip lengths were short (less than 2 km for 33%); average

trip time was 37 minutes and that of walk trips 28 minutes.

Average monthly expenditure was Ksh. 1250. NMT users

considered pedestrian environment as ‘bad’ (80%). Walk is

resorted for want of public transport (38%). Absence of

footpaths and cycle tracks were considered as major problems.

‘Continuity’ of the facility was given top priority in the

preference. At-grade crossing was preferred. NMT operators

(bicycle boda-bodas) were young in age (40% in 20-25 years);

owned their mode (71%); operate 8-10 hours a day; perform 10-

20 trips (87%); and carried about 10 to 20 passengers per day

(NMT Operators Survey 2013 of KNMT project, 2012-13).




10916

Household Interview Surveys in 2013 (KNMT project, 2012-13)

has revealed interesting information about the household,

personal and trip characteristics. The mobility of the people is

high with a per capita trip rate (PCTR) of 2.4. Mini Bus/

Matatu trips were moderate (20%) followed by ‘walk’ trips were

very high (70%); ‘Work’ and Business’ trips accounted for 63%;

Average trip length of all trips was high (2.14 km). Average trip

length of walks trips was 1.01 km. The average per capita

income was observed to be Ksh. 8052 per month. The

expenditure on ‘Transport’ was high (15.60%).

2.0 Literature Survey:

A brief overview of the best practices in NMT policy, planning,

design, finance and development approaches followed in several

developed and developing countries. A holistic combination of

all the above aspects is necessary for successful implementation

of NMT programme. Some of the successful examples in NMT

Policy and Planning measures have been described and include

NMT network planning in Bogota-Columbia (Cervero et.al.

2009); Dublin Public bicycle sharing schemes (Ghosh et.al.

2011), National Bicycle initiative in South Africa (Gwala, 2007);

Legislation of National Bicycle law in Japan (ECMT, 2004);

Integration of NMT planning in the overall Urban framework

as successfully done in Netherlands (Fietsberaad, 2008),

various successful promotional strategies as Car Free Days in

Bogota (Cervero et.al. 2009) etc.

Some of the globally accepted design concepts in NMT

facilities have also been described and suitably incorporated in

the recommended designs. Once the NMT policy and plans are

streamlined there is a need for a well-coordinated institutional

and financing arrangement for successful implementation.

Some of the institutional frameworks that have been successful

in the areas of Urban Transport and NMT i.e. formation of

Boards, Groups with representations from Ministry &




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Provincial Governments for implementing Bicycle Network

Plan in Netherlands (Fietsberaad, 2008); legislation of cycling

laws as in Germany, Japan, Bogota (GTZ I-CE, 2009);

formation of Unified Metropolitan Transport Authority (UMTA)

(Gupta, 2013) in all cities with at least a million inhabitants as

recommended in the Urban Transport Policy in India.

Experiences world over show the major source of finance for

NMT investment is indeed the central government which funds

directly to NMT programmes or decentralizes budgets to

municipal level. However, various other innovative financing

mechanisms used in NMT funding (National Funds, PPP,

Community funding, Levies & Charges) have also been

described.

To carry out a successful NMT programme in Mombasa

town of Kenya; require review of a number of

policy/statues/acts, that impact the course of

Urban/Transport/NMT planning and development in Kenya

(Pendakur, 2005). The important documents reviewed in this

regards are the New Constitution of Kenya, 2010, Kenya Vision

2030, The National Transport Policy 2010 and The (Draft)

Urban Development Policy 2012 and a host of legal statutes

(KNBS, 2010 & 2012). Urban Transport and NMT in Kenya

still continue to be affected by a number scattered and

uncoordinated legislation and need reforms and restructuring

to establish a sound policy and legal framework with clearly

established roles and responsibilities at all levels of governance.

The Integrated National Transport Policy (KNBS, 2012)

recognizes the need to eliminate the impediments to

development and use of non-motorized and intermediate means

of transport to enhance transport safety. It also recommends

adoption of an Urban Transport Policy with clear identification

of specific NMT strategies and the institutional arrangements

for its implementation. The new Constitution and the Urban

Areas and Cities Act 2011 provide for governance and

management structure for the urban areas and cities by the




10918

County Government and administered on its behalf through

constituted Boards/Committees. The various road agencies like

Kenya Urban Road Authority (KURA) and Kenya National

Highway Authority (KeNHA) constituted as part of Road Act

2007 are also expected to be devolved in this newly established

governance structure. The National Transport Safety Authority

Act 2012 is a positive development for NMT and shall ensure

implementation of policies related to Safety of Vulnerable Road

users. The Traffic Act Cap 403, primarily deals with the law

related to motor traffic on the roads, however it fails to

recognize NMT and clusters them as other users. Mombasa

needs a Master Plan to guide its growth. The expansion of the

Port, the modernization of the Mombasa – Nairobi rail line, the

development of the Northern Corridor would all accelerate the

growth of Mombasa. Presently the city is divided into 4 parts

separated by the creeks. A new Orbital Corridor inter-

connecting the parts and polycentric development pattern has

been conceptualized. The city is planned to contain a population

of 2 million by 2030. In the framework of the Concept Master

Plan the NMT Master Plan (NMTMP) has been prepared. It

has the vision to promote mobility through NMTS and a

mission to develop NMT facilities on a sustained basis. The

NMTMP envisages provision of segregated footpaths and cycle

tracks; improvement of intersections; provision of foot over

bridges; provision of parking and other facilities for bicycle

boda-bodas; application of intense traffic calming measures to

improve safety of NMT users and operators; and a number of

institutional reforms to promote sustained development of

operation of NMTs.

The Engineering Interventions in Mombasa include

provision of 3 foot over bridges; Provision of the pedestrian

bridge across the drain; footpath and cycle tracks (47.6 km)

along important roads; intense traffic calming measures;

improvement of junctions; provision of Bicycle stands; etc.

Design of the Engineering Interventions identified need to be




10919

cost effective, user friendly and low in maintenance cost apart

from other features. The designs conform to international

standards. For footpath, parking areas, bus bays etc. precast

concrete blocks of 50-100 mm thick laid over 50-100 mm thick

compacted granular base course is adopted. For the foot over

bridge steel truss is selected. Modular design is adopted. Design

of NMT facilities/infrastructure has been carried out. The

pavement structure can be either of rigid type or flexible type.

For catering the needs of non-motorized vehicles, the use of

asphalt pavement (i.e. flexible pavement) has been preferred

(KNMT Project 2012 -13 on the basis of Transport Road

Research Laboratory (TRRL) Road Note 29, UK).

To ensure safety and comfort to the pedestrians crossing

the road, Foot over Bridges (FOB) and NMT bridges have been

proposed near Buxton Junction at Abdul Saleh Road, Kangeleni

Junction at Malindi Road and Changamwe Round about at

Mombasa – Nairobi Road (A109) arm. NMT Bridge has been

proposed at Magongo Road near Airport Road Junction – Across

the Drain Box Truss type steel Foot over Bridge (FoB) with

Ramps on either side, to facilitate physically challenged

pedestrians, has been proposed. General Arrangement of the

four Barrel RCC pipe culvert beside vehicular bridge on

Magongo Road comprises 4 nos. 1000 mm diameter, with an

increased discharge capacity (KNMT Project 2012 -13).

The Cost for NMT Project in the study town of Mombasa

works out to 550.62 million Ksh. The quantities were derived

based on engineer’s estimate, which in turn, were derived from

the engineering drawings. The unit rates were established

based on available resources such as prevalent market rates,

data from recently awarded projects, quotations from vendors,

etc. (KNMT project, 2012-13).




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3.0 Objective:

The objective of economic evaluation is to assess the viability of

the proposed project in terms of the benefits likely to accrue to

the users. This will help decision makers to justify the cost of

implementation of Non-Motorized Transport interventions.

The predominant cost is the cost of construction,

together with maintenance and operation costs. All costs and

benefits are valued in monetary terms. The costs are expressed

in economic prices to reflect the true resource cost to the

economy. The economic feasibility of a project is established

when the benefits are more than the cost.

Benefits to NMT users accrue when dedicated

infrastructure is created for NMT. Provision of appropriate

infrastructure for NMT has both short term and long term

benefits. The most significant benefits in the short term are the

reduction in fatal / serious injury accidents and time savings to

pedestrians and cyclists due to improvement in walking and

cycle speeds.

The long term benefits are more complex and related to

behavioural changes. These include increase in use of NMT,

with persons shifting from motorized to non – motorized modes

of transport, fuel savings and reduced emissions. The present

analysis is confined to the short term benefits, accruing over a

period of 5 years.

4.0 Approach

The NMT project aims at reducing the risks to pedestrians and

bi-cyclists by improving the quality of infrastructure for them.

NMT interventions for Mombasa town comprise:

Traffic Calming Measures such as improvement of

junctions, provision of speed tables / humps, entry/exit

gates at the city limits;




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New NMT Facilities viz. footpaths, cycle tracks, bi-cycle

(boda boda) stands, foot over bridges, pedestrian bridges;

Other Facilities like pedestrian railing.

Economic analysis has been carried out for the four major NMT

components for which quantification of benefits was possible,

viz.

Traffic Calming Measures,

Footpaths

Cycle tracks, and

Foot Over Bridges

Other components of NMT interventions have not been

considered for economic analysis because of the complexity

involved with quantification of benefits.

The approach for estimating the benefits of each is discussed

below.

4.1.1 Component 1 : Traffic Calming Measures

Traffic Calming measures will reduce the speed of motorized

traffic from 50/60 kmph to 20 kmph. While this in itself may

not reduce the number of accidents, it will result in lesser force

of impact and thereby reduce fatal (killed) as well as serious

injury accidents (KSI). Studies worldwide, including Sub-

Saharan African Transport Project in Africa (SSATP)1, show

that Traffic Calming Measures generally result in reducing KSI

by 15% to 30%.

The monetary value or cost of a fatal accident is defined

as the loss in productivity of the person killed. This has been

calculated based on the average age of the victim, his per capita

earnings, growing at 5% per annum over a total working life of

20 years. In the absence of any other data, the cost of a serious

1 Traffic calming measures has reduced the speed to 15% in Tanzania

according to the report Assessment of NMT Programme in Kenya and

Tanzania, SSATP, World Bank and Economic Commission for Africa, page no.

28. This is further confirmed by Safety Effects of Traffic Calming, UK




10922

injury has been assumed as 25% of the cost of a fatal accident.

Thus, the major benefit of Traffic Calming Measures is the

reduction in KSI and the resultant saving in loss of

productivity.

It is envisaged that total accidents will not increase with

growth in population in the future. The dis-benefits to the

motorists, in terms of reduction in motorized speed, have not

been taken into consideration.

Normally Traffic Calming measures would reduce KSI of

all categories. However, since in this analysis, footpaths (which

would reduce KSI of pedestrians) and cycle tracks (which would

reduce KSI of cyclists) are being analysed separately, we have

taken the impact of TCM to be primarily on KSI of categories

other than pedestrians and cyclists.

4.1.2 Component 2 : Footpaths

Footpaths proposed are segregated facilities. This facility will

have two major benefits for pedestrians. The first is reduction

in KSI of pedestrians because of segregation from general

traffic, and the second is improvement in walking speed

because of better surface resulting in time savings. Benefits due

to saving in KSI would be the same as that discussed in

Component 1.

Time saving benefits has been estimated using average

trip length for walk, walking speed –with and without

improvement; per capita walk trip rate, trip purpose

distribution and percentage of population being benefitted by

improvement of footpaths.

The Value of Time (VOT) has been estimated for the

population greater than 5 years of age, based on the average

earnings per person in Kenya. The unit VOT for work is taken

as the average earning per hour. The unit VOT of commuting

trips (i.e. from home to work and back/home to school and back

/other social and recreational purposes) has been taken as 30%

of VOT of work/ business trips.




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4.1.3 Component 3 : Cycle Tracks

Since bi-cycle tracks provided are also segregated facilities,

these will have similar benefits viz. reduction in KSI of pedal

cyclists and improvement in speed because of better surface

resulting in time savings. Benefits due to saving in KSI have

been discussed in Component 1. Time saving benefits has been

discussed in Component 2.

4.1.4 Component 4 : Foot Over Bridges

Foot Over Bridges basically ensure safety of the pedestrians.

This facility will have two major benefits. The first is safety of

pedestrians resulting in reduction in pedestrian’s accidents,

and the second is time savings to the motorists.

Normally Foot Over Bridges would reduce KSI of

Pedestrians. However, since in this analysis, footpaths (which

would reduce KSI of pedestrians) are being analysed

separately, we have not taken the impact of KSI on pedestrians

due to FOBs especially to avoid the double counting.

Time saving benefits to motorists has been estimated

using average waiting time of each motorized passenger vehicle

viz. 2 Wheeler, 3 Wheeler, Car, Matatu, Mini Bus and Standard

Bus –with and without construction of foot over bridges. Time

savings of freight vehicles has not been estimated with the

basic assumption that the time savings of freight vehicles

would only increase the benefits.

The Value of Time (VOT) has been estimated for the

population greater than 5 years of age, based on the average

earnings per person in Kenya. The unit VOT is taken as the

average earning per hour of above-mentioned vehicles users.

5.0 Costs of NMT Interventions

The capital costs of NMT interventions have been ascertained

on the basis of the engineering estimates (KNMT Projects 2012-

13). The operation and maintenance (O & M) cost is taken from




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the second year of operation @ 2% of capital cost. A standard

conversion factor of 0.85 has been used to derive the economic

cost of capital investment.

The financial and economic costs of different NMT

interventions for Mombasa town are presented in Table 1.

Table 1: Estimated Cost of Various NMT Interventions Sl.

No.

NMT

Interventions

Quantity

(No./

Length)

Capital Cost

in Million

Kenyan

Shilling

(Ksh.)

(Financial)

Preliminary,

General

Supervision,

Contingencies

Cost in Million

Ksh.

Total Cost in

Million Ksh.

(Financial)

Total Cost

in Million

Ksh.

(Economic)

A. Traffic Calming Measures (TCM)

1 Improvement of

Junctions

10 Nos. 11.91 2.69 14.6 12.41

2 Speed Tables /

Humps

107 Nos.

3 Entry / Exit Gates 2 Nos. 15 3.38 18.38 15.63

Sub –Total (A) 26.91 6.07 32.98 28.03

B. New NMT Facilities

1 Pedestrian

Walkway

(Footpath)

36.6 Km. 165.3 37.28 202.59 172.2

2 Cycle Track 11.0 Km. 20.05 4.52 24.57 20.89

3 Cycle Parking 4 No. 7.59 1.71 9.31 7.91

4 NMT Structures

(FOBs)

3 No. 195.98 44.2 240.18 204.15

5 NMT Structure

(Pedestrian

Bridge)

1 No. 12.82 2.89 15.71 13.35

Sub –Total (B) 401.74 90.61 492.36 418.5

C. Other Facilities

1 Pedestrian

Railing

1.65 Km. 20.63 4.65 25.28 21.49

Sub –Total (C) 20.63 4.65 25.28 21.49

Total Cost = Sub Total (A)+(B)+(C) 550.62 468.02

Source: Engineering Cost Estimate, KNMT Project, 2012-13

6.0 Cost Benefit Analysis

In this approach, the total cost of NMT interventions is

compared with the monetary value of total benefits. Since the

benefits are likely to accrue in the short term, the analysis has

been done for a five years period. The Benefit - Cost Ratio

(BCR) has been calculated by discounting the cost and benefit

streams @ 12% rate of interest.




10925

6.1.1 Component 1: Traffic Calming Measures

Costs: The economic cost for provision of different Traffic

Calming Measures is presented in Table 1. The investment

would be incurred in 2014. O&M would be incurred from the

second year of operation, i.e. 2016.

Benefits: As mentioned earlier, the benefits of traffic calming

measures will accrue primarily due to saving in productivity

loss of KSI accidents of categories other than pedestrians and

cyclists.

KSI Reduction: The reduction in the number of KSI accidents

has been estimated based on the following

data/assumptions/parameters:

No of persons (excl. pedestrians and cyclists) killed in

Mombasa = 372 per year

No of persons (excl. pedestrians and cyclists) seriously

injured in Mombasa = 2103 per year

Reduction in KSI Accidents due to TCM = 30%4

o Reduction in killed = 30% of 37 = 11 per year

o Reduction in Seriously Injured = 30% of 210 = 63

per year

The cost of a fatal accident or saving in future earnings of a

person killed is estimated as below:

Per capita earning of a person in Kenya = Ksh. 11,169

per month5

Average work life = 20 years

Growth in earnings per year @ 5%

2 Accident Data of Mombasa City in the year 2012. 3 Ibid. ii 4 Studies worldwide including Sub-Saharan African Transport Project in

Africa (SSATP) show that provision of traffic calming measures generally

result in reducing KSI by 15% to 30%. Here we have assumed that provision

of traffic calming measures will reduce KSI by 30%. 5 Average Salary in Kenya is Ksh. 134,032 per annum according to 2012/2013

Salary Survey (www.averagesalarysurvey.com)




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Based on the above assumptions, future earnings

saved due to saving of a fatal accident is

estimated as Ksh. 4,787,523 per person6

Cost of a Serious Injury = 25% of cost of fatal

accident i.e. Ksh. 1,196,881

Saving in productivity loss due to reduction in

killed accidents =Ksh. 4,787, 523*11 =Ksh.

53,141,5037

Saving in productivity loss due to reduction in

serious accidents = 1,196, 881*63

=Ksh.75,403,4838

The cost and benefit streams of Traffic Calming Measures for a

5- year period (2014-2019) is presented in Table 2.

Table 2: BCR of Component 1- Traffic Calming Measures

Year Economic Cost (in Ksh.) Benefits (in Ksh.)

Capital

Cost

O & M Cost Total Cost Saving in

Productivity

Loss – Fatal

Saving in

Productivity

Loss -

Seriously

Injured

Total Benefits

2014(Y0) 2,80,33,000 2,80,33,000

2015(Y1) - - 5,31,41,503 7,54,03,483 12,85,44,986

2016(Y2) 5,60,660 5,60,660 5,31,41,503 7,54,03,483 12,85,44,986

2017(Y3) 5,60,660 5,60,660 5,31,41,503 7,54,03,483 12,85,44,986

2018(Y4) 5,60,660 5,60,660 5,31,41,503 7,54,03,483 12,85,44,986

2019(Y5) 5,60,660 5,60,660 5,31,41,503 7,54,03,483 12,85,44,986

NPV@12% in2014 2,63,87,022 46,33,75,907

BCR in 2014-2019 17.56

BCR in 2014-2015 4.59

The BCR of Traffic calming measures in the first five years of

operation is 17.56, and in the first year of operation are 4.59.

6 Saving in future earnings due to fatal accidents

=11169.333*12*(((1+0.05)^21)-1)/((1+0.05)-1) =4,787,523 (ksh.), (Formula: S =

earnings per month (salary)*12*[(1+r)^ (n+1)-1/(1+r)-1], where S= saving in

future earnings, r=rate of growth of earnings per annum and n= work life). 7 Decimal values have been taken into consideration. 8 Accident Data of Mombasa City in the year 2012.




10927

Thus the provision of traffic calming measures is economically

viable right from the first year of operation.

6.1.2 Component 2: Footpaths

Costs: The economic costs of construction and rehabilitation of

footpaths is presented in Table 1. The investment would be

incurred in 2014. O&M would be incurred from the second year

of operation, i.e. 2016.

Benefits: Segregated footpaths will provide safety, speed and

comfort to pedestrians during walk trips. These are expected to

reduce pedestrian KSI, as well as bring about time savings.

Benefits like comfort are difficult to quantify and hence not

included in the analysis.

Pedestrian KSI Reduction: The reduction in the number of

pedestrian KSI has been estimated based on the following


No of pedestrians killed in Mombasa = 389 per year

No of pedestrians seriously injured in accidents in

Mombasa = 3710 per year

Length of footpaths (36.6 km) provided in Mombasa

comprise about 19% of city footpaths

Reduction in pedestrian KSI Accidents due to footpaths

= 25%11

Hence, reduction in pedestrians killed = 25% of 19% i.e.

5% of total pedestrians killed

o Reduction in killed accidents= 5% of 38 = 2 per

year

o Reduction in seriously injured accidents= 5% of

37 = 2 per year

9 Ibid. viii 10 Ibid. viii 11 Studies worldwide including Sub-Saharan African Transport Project in

Africa (SSATP) show that provision of footpaths generally results in reducing

KSI by 20% to 35%. Here we have assumed that provision of footpaths will

reduce KSI of pedestrians by 25%.




10928

The costs of a fatal and seriously injured accident, described in

Component 1, are Ksh. 4,787,523 and Ksh. 1,196,881

respectively. Hence, the total benefits due to reduction in

pedestrian KSI worked out to Ksh. 10,688,444 per annum.12

Pedestrian Time Savings: Pedestrian time savings have been

estimated based on the following:

Average walk trip length of pedestrian in Mombasa

town = 1.02 Km13

Average walking speed14

o Without project = 2.25 kmph

o With segregated footpaths = 3.5 kmph

Per Capita Trip Rate of pedestrian (PCTR-walk) in

Mombasa town = 1.6815

Total no. of pedestrians in 2015 in Mombasa =

1,856,63516

Time saved per walk trip after improvement = 10

minutes

Time saved per pedestrian in a year, taking 300 days17 a

year = 81 hours

Percentage of Pedestrians benefitted by provision of

footpaths = 19% = 340,67218

12 Benefits due to reduction in pedestrian KSI = (1.796*4,787,523) +

(1.748*1,196,881) = 10,688,444 ksh. (Decimal values have been considered). 13 House Hold Survey 2013 (KNMT project 2012-13). 14 Available literature for Eldoret town in Kenya shows that with construction

and rehabilitation of footpaths, the speed of a pedestrian will increase from

2.25 kmph. to 3.5 kmph. -Assessment of NMT Programme in Kenya and

Tanzania, SSATP, World Bank and Economic Commission for Africa, page no.

38. 15 House Holds Survey Mombasa 2013. 16 Population growth rate in Mombasa is 3.24 % per annum during the period

1999 to 2009. Per capita Trip rate is 1.68. Thus total no of Pedestrian in 2015

will be: 1,108,282*1.68 = 1,856,635. 17 Here 300 working days have been considered by excluding 52 Sundays and

13 holidays in a year. 18 The projected population of Mombasa town for 2015 is 1,108,282.

Population growth rate has been taken @ 3.24 % per annum. The total

number of Pedestrians is estimated from the PCTR-walk of 1.68.

Improvement of 36.6 km footpaths constitutes 19% of total footpath length in

the city. Thus, 19% of pedestrians will be using the improved footpaths.




10929

Value of Time (VOT): The unit VOT of a person in Kenya has

been estimated based on the following:

Average monthly earnings per person in Kenya = Ksh.

11,16919

Hourly income, considering 8 work hours a day and 22

work days a month = Ksh.63

Wage Rate or VOT for business trip is taken as the

hourly income = Ksh. 63/hour

VOT for Non-business trip @ 30% of VOT of business

trip = Ksh. 19/hour

Business trips are 9% and non-business trips are 91% of

total trips20

Thus, Average VOT is estimated as Ksh. 23/hour21

Benefits to pedestrians due to time saving have been

estimated by taking into account increase in VOT @5%

per annum and growth in population @ 3.24% per

annum

The cost and benefit streams of Footpaths for a 5- year period

(2014-2019) is presented in Table 3.

Table 3: BCR of Component 2-Footpaths Year Economic Cost (in Ksh.) Benefits (in Ksh.)

Capital Cost O & M Cost Total Cost Saving in

Productivity

Loss – Fatal

Saving in

Productivity

Loss -

Seriously

Injured

Time

Saving

Total Benefits

2014(Y0) 17,22,01,500 17,22,01,500

2015(Y1) - - 85,95,997 20,92,447 65,74,72,294 66,81,60,738

2016(Y2) 34,44,030 34,44,030 85,95,997 20,92,447 71,27,38,659 72,34,27,103

2017(Y3) 34,44,030 34,44,030 85,95,997 20,92,447 77,26,50,651 78,33,39,095

2018(Y4) 34,44,030 34,44,030 85,95,997 20,92,447 83,75,98,776 84,82,87,220

2019(Y5) 34,44,030 34,44,030 85,95,997 20,92,447 90,80,06,366 91,86,94,810

NPV@12% in2014 16,20,90,563 2,79,12,43,011

BCR in 2014-2019 17.22

BCR in 2014-2015 3.88

19Average Salary in Kenya is Ksh. 134,032 per annum according to 2012/2013

Salary Survey (www.averagesalarysurvey.com) 20 Household surveys in 2013 indicate that non business trips are 91% while

work and business trips are only 9% of the total trips. 21 VOT assumed to increase @ 5% per annum.

http://www.averagesalarysurvey.com/




10930

Results: the Construction and rehabilitation of footpaths is

economically viable as the BCR is 17.22 in the first five years

(2014 to 2019) of operation. The BCR in the first year of

provision of footpaths is 3.88. Thus the provision of footpaths is

economically viable right from the first year of operation.

6.1.3 Component 3 : Cycle Tracks

Costs: The economic cost of construction and rehabilitation of

cycle tracks is presented in Table 1. The investment would be

incurred in 2014. O&M would be incurred from the second year

of operation, i.e. 2016.

Benefits: Segregated cycle tracks will provide safety, speed

and comfort to pedal cyclists. These are expected to reduce

cyclist KSI, as well as bring about time savings. Benefits like

comfort are difficult to quantify and hence not included in the

analysis.

Reduction in Cyclists KSI: The reduction in the number of

cyclist KSI has been estimated based on the following


No of cyclists killed in aciidents in Mombasa = 822 per

year

No of cyclists seriously injured in Mombasa = 7 23per

year

Length of cycle tracks (11.0 km) provided in Mombasa

comprise about 6% of city network

Reduction in cyclist KSI Accidents due to cycle tracks =

40%24

Reduction in cyclist KSI Accidents due to cycle tracks =

6%

22 Accident Data of Mombasa City in the year 2012. 23 Ibid. xxii 24 Studies worldwide, including Sub-Saharan African Transport Project in

Africa (SSATP), shows that cycle tracks generally result in reducing KSI by

25% to 50%. Here we have assumed that provision of cycle track will reduce

KSI of cyclists by 40%.




10931

Hence, reduction in cyclists killed = 40% of 6% i.e. 2.4%

of total cyclists killed

o Saving in productivity loss due to reduction in

killed in accidents = Ksh. 919,204

o Saving in productivity loss due to reduction in

Seriously Injured = Ksh.201,076

The costs of a fatal and seriously injured accident, described in

Component 1, are Ksh. 4,787,523 and Ksh 1,196,881

respectively. Hence, the total benefits due to reduction in cyclist

KSI worked out to Ksh. 1,120,280 per annum25.

Cyclist’s Time Savings: Cyclist time savings have been

estimated based on the following:

average length of cycle trip in Mombasa town = 2.14

Km26

Average cycling speed27

o Without project = 10 kmph

o With segregated cycle tracks = 14 kmph

Per Capita Trip Rate of cyclist (PCTR-cycle) in Mombasa

town = 0.0928

Time saved per cycle trip after improvement = 3.67

minutes

Time saved per cyclist in a year, taking 300 days a year

= 18.34 hours

Percentage of cyclists benefitted by provision of cycle

tracks = 6% = 5,96629

25 919,204 + 201,076 = 1,120,280 Ksh 26 House Holds Survey of Mombasa City 2013. 27 Available literature for Eldoret town shows that with construction and

rehabilitation of cycle tracks the speed of a cyclist will increase from 10 kmph.

to 14 kmph-The significance of Non-Motorized Transport in Developing

Countries, (SSATP Report Result World Bank and Economic Commission for

Africa , Annex.11.8 and 11.10) page. 75,133 & 135). 28 House Holds Survey in Mombasa in 2013. 29 The projected population of Mombasa town for 2014 is 1,073,462.

Population growth rate is 3.24 % per annum. The total number of cyclists is

estimated from the PCTR-cycle of 0.09. Improvement of 11.0 km cycle tracks




10932

Value of Time (VOT): The VOT estimation has been discussed

above. The average VOT of Ksh 23/hour has been adopted.

Benefits to cyclists due to time saving have been

estimated by taking into account increase in VOT @5%

per annum and growth in population @ 3.24% per

annum.

The cost and benefit streams of Cycle tracks for a 5- year period

(2014-2019) is presented in Table 4.

Table 4: BCR of Component 3-Cycle Tracks Year Economic Cost (in Ksh.) Benefits (in Ksh.)

Capital

Cost

O & M Cost Total Cost Saving in

Productivity

Loss – Fatal

Saving in

Productivity

Loss -

Seriously

Injured

Time

Saving

Total Benefits

2014(Y0) 2,08,84,500 2,08,84,500

2015(Y1) - - 9,19,204 2,01,076 25,18,812 36,39,092

2016(Y2) 4,17,690 4,17,690 9,19,204 2,01,076 27,30,540 38,50,820

2017(Y3) 4,17,690 4,17,690 9,19,204 2,01,076 29,60,066 40,80,346

2018(Y4) 4,17,690 4,17,690 9,19,204 2,01,076 32,08,886 43,29,166

2019(Y5) 4,17,690 4,17,690 9,19,204 2,01,076 34,78,621 45,98,901

NPV@12% in2014 1,96,58,251 1,45,84,153

BCR in 2014-2019 0.74

BCR in 2014-2015 0.17

Results: The BCR for the construction of cycle tracks is 0.74 in

the first five years (2014 to 2019) of operation. The BCR in the

first year of provision of footpaths is 0.17. Thus, the provision of

cycle tracks is not economically viable on its own.

6.1.4 Component 4: Foot Over Bridges

Costs: The economic costs of construction of 3 foot over bridges

and 1 pedestrian bridge are presented in Table 1. The

investment would be incurred in 2014. O&M would be incurred

from the second year of operation, i.e. 2016.

Benefits: Foot over bridges will ensure safety of pedestrians

and time savings to motorists. The benefits accruing due to

provision of three foot over bridges across the roads have been

constitutes approximately 6% of total road length in the city. Thus, 6% of

cyclists will be using the improved cycle tracks.




10933

considered for economic analysis. The pedestrian bridge

proposed across the drain is only a widening of the already

existing facility. This bridge will ensure convenience, comfort

and safety of pedestrians but there will be very little time

savings to them due to the improvement. Therefore, the benefit

of time savings because of the widening of pedestrian bridge

has not been considered in this analysis.

Normally Foot Over Bridges would reduce KSI of

Pedestrians. However, since in this analysis, footpaths (which

would reduce KSI of pedestrians) are being analysed

separately, we have not taken the impact of KSI on pedestrians

particularly due to FOBs to avoid double counting. However,

there will be significant time savings to motorists because of

the provision of FOBs. Thus, the benefits of time savings of

motorists have been considered for the analysis.

Time Savings to Motorists: Time savings to motorists have been

estimated based on the following assumptions:

Average waiting time of each motorist in Mombasa town

without provision of FOBs = 10 seconds30

Thus, time saved by each motorist with provision of

FOBs =10 seconds = 0.0028 hours

Time savings by 2 wheelers in a year (assuming 300

working days in a year)

o Number of 2 wheelers benefited = 4,85531

o Each 2 wheeler will save =10 seconds / day=

0.0028 hours /day

o 4,855 numbers of 2 wheelers will save = 13.49

hours /day

o Average occupancy of a 2 wheeler = 1.2

o Total Passenger Hours saved in a day = 13.49*1.2

=16.18 hours / day

30 Provision of FOBs helps in 20 seconds time saving for each motorized

vehicle. The average waiting time of each motorized vehicle is 50% of 20

seconds i.e. 10 seconds 31 Traffic Volume Count Data (KNMT Project, 2013).




10934

o Thus, total passenger hours saved in a year =

16.18 * 300 = 4,885 hrs

Time savings by 3 wheelers in a year (assuming 300


o Number of 3 wheelers benefited = 5,24132

o Each 3 wheeler will save =10 seconds / day=

0.0028 hours /day

o 5,241 numbers of 3 wheelers will save = 14.56

hours / day

o Average occupancy of a 3 wheeler = 2

o Total Passenger Hours saved in a day = 14.56*2

=29.12 hours / day


29.12 * 300 = 8,735 hrs

Time savings by Cars in a year (assuming 300 working

days in a year)

o Number of cars benefitted = 13, 51933

o Each car will save =10 seconds / day= 0.0028

hours /day

o 13, 519 numbers of car will save = 37.55 hours /

day

o Average occupancy of a car = 3

o Total Passenger Hours saved in a day =

37.55*3=112.66 hours / day


112.66 * 300 = 33,798 hrs.

Time savings by Matatus in a year (assuming 300


o Number of Matatus benefitted= 15, 20534

o Each Matatu save =10 seconds / day= 0.0028

hours /day

32 Ibid. xxxi 33 Ibid. xxxi 34 Ibid. xxxi




10935

o 15,205 numbers of Matatus will save = 42.24

hours / day

o Average occupancy of a Matatu = 14


=591.31 hours / day


591.31 * 300 = 177,392 hrs.

Time savings by Mini Buses in a year (assuming 300


o Number of Minibuses benefitted = 1,31135

o Each Mini bus will save =10 seconds / day=

0.0028 hours /day

o 1,311 numbers of Mini buses will save = 3.64

hours / day

o Average occupancy of a Mini bus = 25


=91.04 hours / day


91.04* 300 = 27,313 hrs.

Time savings by Standard Buses in a year (assuming

300 working days in a year)

o Number of Std. Bus benefitted= 67736

o Each Std. bus will save =10 seconds / day= 0.0028

hours /day

o 677 numbers of Std. buses will save = 1.88 hours /

day

o Average occupancy of a Std. bus = 40


=75.22 hours / day


75.22* 300 = 22,567 hrs.

Value of Time (VOT): The unit VOT of a person in Kenya has

been estimated based on the following:

35 Ibid. xxxi 36 Ibid. xxxi




10936

Average monthly earnings per person in Kenya = Ksh.

11,16937

Hourly income, considering 8 hours of work in a day and

22 work days a month = Ksh. 63

VOT is taken as the hourly Wage rate = Ksh. 63/hour

The cost and benefit streams of Foot Over Bridges for a 5- year

period (2014-2019) is presented in Table 5.

Table 5: BCR of Component 4-Foot Over Bridges Year Economic Cost (in Ksh.) Benefits (in Ksh.)


Productivity

Loss – Fatal

Saving in

Productivity

Loss -

Seriously

Injured

Time

Saving

Total Benefits

2014(Y0) 20,41,53,000 20,41,53,000

2015(Y1) - - 0 0 2,46,17,274 2,46,17,274

2016(Y2) 40,83,060 40,83,060 0 0 2,69,97,917 2,69,97,917

2017(Y3) 40,83,060 40,83,060 0 0 2,71,40,545 2,71,40,545

2018(Y4) 40,83,060 40,83,060 0 0 2,84,97,572 2,84,97,572

2019(Y5) 40,83,060 40,83,060 0 0 2,99,22,451 2,99,22,451

NPV@12% in2014 19,21,66,007 9,79,09,911

BCR in 2014-2019 0.51

BCR in 2014-2015 0.12

Results: The BCR of foot over bridge is 0.51 in the first five

years (2014 to 2019) of operation. The BCR in the first year of

construction of foot over bridges 0.12. Thus, the provision of foot

over bridge is not economically viable on its own.

6.1.5 Total NMT Project

The Benefit – Cost Ratio of the total NMT project, comprising of

Components 1, 2, 3 and 4 is presented in Table 6.

Table 6: Benefit - Cost Ratio of Total NMT Project

37Average Salary in Kenya is Ksh. 134,032 per annum according to 2012/2013

Salary Survey (www.averagesalarysurvey.com)

http://www.averagesalarysurvey.com/




10937

7.0 Conclusion:

The overall provision comprising NMT facilities viz. traffic

calming measures, footpaths and cycle tracks, is economically

viable as the BCR is 8.41 in the first five years of operation. The

provision is also economically viable in the first year operation.

As provision of traffic calming measures generates the highest

benefits, with a high BCR, it should be taken up first, followed

by footpaths and others.

REFERENCES:

Cervero, Robert, Sarmiento, Olga L., Jacoby, Enrique, Gomez,

Luis Fernando and Neiman, Andrea, Influences of Built

Environments on Walking and Cycling: Lessons from

Bogotá, International Journal of Sustainable

Transportation, 2009, p.203 — 226.

European Conference of Minister of Transport (ECTM):

National Policies to Promote Cycling, ECMT, ISBN 92-

821-2325-1, 2004.

Fietsberaad, Cycling in the Netherlands, Ministry of Transport,

Public Works and Water Management, The

Netherlands, 2008.

Year Economic Cost (in Ksh.) Benefits (in Ksh.)


Productivity

Loss – Fatal

Saving in

Productivity

Loss -

Seriously

Injured

Time

Saving

Total Benefits

2014(Y0) 42,52,72,000 42,52,72,000

2015(Y1) - - 6,26,56,704 7,76,97,006 68,46,08,380 82,49,62,090

2016(Y2) - 85,05,440 85,05,440 6,26,56,704 7,76,97,006 74,24,67,116 88,28,20,826

2017(Y3) - 85,05,440 85,05,440 6,26,56,704 7,76,97,006 80,27,51,262 94,31,04,972

2018(Y4) - 85,05,440 85,05,440 6,26,56,704 7,76,97,006 86,93,05,234 1,00,96,58,944

2019(Y5) - 85,05,440 85,05,440 6,26,56,704 7,76,97,006 94,14,07,438 1,08,17,61,148

NPV@12% in 2014 40,03,01,844 3,36,71,12,982

BCR in 2014-2019 8.41

BCR in 2014-2015 1.94




10938

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10939

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