soft systems: an interdisciplinary method dr karen bowler marine and coastal policy research group...

Soft Systems: an Interdisciplinary Method

Dr Karen BowlerMarine and Coastal Policy Research Group

School of Earth, Ocean and Environmental Sciences

The Irish Sea: a socio-ecological system

• Marine management

• Sustainability:

‘Meeting the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generation s to meet their own needs.’

Brundtland 1987

• Ecosystem wellbeing fundamental

• Humans are part of the ecosystem.

The Problem – Why is marine conservation failing to deliver?’

• D-P-S-I-R• Science-policy gap• Barriers to change

• ESRC/NERC • Multiple disciplines

involved• Which methods?

Ecosystem PRESSURES

Environmental STATE CHANGES

Societal DRIVERS

Societal RESPONSES

IMPACTSon Society

Disciplines

INTERDISCIPLINARITY

‘Disciplinary silos’

Civil society

Academia

‘Sage on stage’

After Brand, R & Karvonen A, 2007

Soft systemsWhy use soft systems?

• Current focus – marine science and human activities framed exclusively within the scientific paradigm.

• These approaches therefore necessarily fail to consider the ultimate, societal, causes of environmental degradation.

Advantages:

• ‘messy’ situations • ‘soft’/multiple problem definitions• Context sensitive• Include many kinds of information • Clarify assumptions, values, purpose • Critical system for action (Ulrich, W)

Soft systemsWhat is a system? • A ‘Holon’ -Greater than sum of parts • Structured by its components, interactions and feedbacks• Persistent in face of change

• What are Soft Systems?• A ‘thinking tool’, ‘a sense-making approach’ (Checkland P, 1981)

• A process of enquiry using systems tools and thinking • ‘holons’ developed to structure debate, compare with real

world, consider changes• Can be issue-based or task-based (O.R.)• Ideally – with multiple stakeholders • Iterative learning cycle

Ongoing evaluation

Take Action

Interpretation of results

Model analyses

Model development

Screening - system boundaries

probs/opps

Scoping -Explore the context

START

Step 1

Step 2

Step 3

Step 4

Step 5

Step 7

Step 6

7-step method – iterative, refined, results of several cycles

After Checkland, 1981

Context – Rich Pictures

From : Karen Bow ler

Problems/Opportunities:A ‘Mess’• Marine environmental damage/degradation• Scientific uncertainty • Multiple legislatory challenges: Marine Protected Areas,

shipping, fishing, tourism, conservation, • Conflicting interests: high population, high consumption

levels, energy demands, economic competitiveness, global links

• Sustainability – economic? social?

• Root Definition: Transformation of a non-sustainable Irish Sea into a sustainable Irish Sea?

Scale, Boundaries,

Regional circulation patterns

Marine monitoring -populations,

species, habitatsLand-based

activities regulation

Nutrients and pollutant emission

regulations

Marine activities regulation

Irish Sea

Wider circulation- NAO, Gulf stream Climate change

OSPARUNCLOS

Irish Sea

MARPOL System Environment

Non-sustainable Irish Sea

Excess nutrientsNoisePhysical

disturbance

Agriculture IndustryShipping

Fisheries

Energy

emissions of pollutants

Multi-Cause Diagram

Mortalities

land appropriation

Inadequatemodelling

Ineffective legislation

Inadequate farm management

eutrophication

Inadequate legislation

Poor technology usePoor wastetreatment

Trade

airborneemissions

Urbanisation

Management failures highlighted in red

Multiple-cause diagram 1

Multiple-cause diagram 2

Non-sustainable Irish Sea

nature conservation

fishing effort

pollutants

radioactivity

shipping

operational discharges

industry

agriculture

energy

population

CO2

population and species losses

Habitat degradation

noise, disturbancedredging and dumping

TBToil pollution

accidents

marine conservation strategy fisheries management

climate changes

extractive activities and sea use

OSPAR

KYOTO

ecosystem qualitylegislation

Points of intervention shown in red

Influence diagramInfluences on the Irish Sea

Environment Agencies

European Union

NGOs

National government policies

Non–sustainable Irish Sea

International Conventions

Future generations

Economic growth

Trade and Industry

General population

Fisheries

Agriculture

Energy

Coastal Fora

Recreationalsea users

Coastal management

Short-term interests

Long-term interests

Shipping

Overshoot

Global externalities

Critical SystemCritical components identified:

Causes: Failures in Legislation, Management, Modelling, Technology use

Influences: Feedback loops

Economic growth-energy-trade

Externalities-short-termism-Overshoot

Critical areas for action e. g. Strengthen weakly interacting feedback at long-term interests

Wider discussion

• The Irish Sea itself does not comprise a holon.

• Scientifically defined ‘ecosystem’• Politically divided• Statistical data at national level• Subject to multiple influences from system

environment• A sustainable Irish Sea is a long way from

reality.

ConclusionsSoft systems methods provide a key link in developing our

understanding of complex, trans-disciplinary issues. They:

• Extend understanding to multiple, underlying causes eg advertising, outside usual consideration

• Construct a holistic picture of context and interrelationships which influence (non)-sustainability

• As a learning cycle, could offer much more if practiced on the ground in stakeholder fora.

Natural Sciences ‘ WHAT HAPPENS’

Social Sciences ‘WHY IT HAPPENS’

PRESSURES

STATE CHANGES

DRIVERS

RESPONSES

IMPACTS

Needs Wants

Feelings

Power

Beliefs, Values

Quantity

Speed

Volume

Area

Size

DPSIR and Data

Natural Sciences Value Neutral

Social Sciences

Value Pluralism

PRESSURES

STATE CHAGES

DRIVERS

RESPONSES

IMPACTS

Relationships Context

Process

Pattern

More Data Reduce uncertainty

Consensus

Empathy

Respect

Commitment, Vision

DPSIR and Epistemologies

‘Rational’

‘Non-Rational’

Current basis for marine sustainability

‘…based on sound science’ – as opposed to unsound science

Oceanography

BiologyEcology

Fisheries Science

Resource management Conservation

of habitats and species

Chemistry

Extended basis for marine sustainability

‘…based on sound science’ – but only as a basis – cultural values

Oceanography

BiologyEcology

Fisheries Science

Resource management Conservation

of habitats and species

Chemistry

Scientific Basis

Context, advertising, global economy, unequal distribution of benefits, trade-offs, advertising, short term benefit v ultimate aims,. Where are we really going? Is it good or bad – beyond science