impact of climate variability and change on marine … · impact of climate variability and change...

N O A A R E S E A R C H • E A R T H S Y S T E M R E S E A R C H L A B O R ATO R Y • P H Y S I C A L S C I E N C E S D I V I S I O N

Impact of Climate Variability and Change on Marine Ecosystems Michael Alexander and James Scott

PSD Support of NOAA Fisheries •  Provide climate observations and model data to users: e.g.

NOAA Fisheries, Decision Makers, Stakeholders !  Climate Change Web Portal (Jamie Scott’s poster)

•  Guidance on using climate climate change information in conservation decisions !  Managing fisheries !  Listing marine species as threatened or endangered !  Methodology in: McClure et al. 2013 and Snover et al.

2013, both in Conservation Biology

•  Research Projects: !  Climate change impact on fish populations !  SST Prediction in Large Marine Ecosystems

Atlantic Croaker •  East coast sport & commercial fishery •  Survival of juveniles increases with temperature •  Range expands north from Chesapeake Bay

Atlantic Croaker Cusk River Herring

River Herring (Alewife and Blueback) •  Population decreased rapidly in the 1970s •  NOAA established a recovery plan in 2013 •  Warming causes northward shift spring & fall; large

decrease in fall

Cusk •  Population decreased rapidly over the last 20 years •  Consider listing species as threatened or endangered •  Needs cold water and rocky bottom •  Warming causes habitat to shrink and fragment

1963-2009 2020-2060 + 1.04 C

2060-2100 + 1.78 C

Cusk  Simulated  Poten1al  Habitat  Nov-­‐Dec    

Model Alewife Density in Spring

US  Large  Marine  Ecosystems    

GoA  

CC  

EBS  

IP-­‐H  

GoM  

SST  LME  Forecast  Skill                Gulf  of  Alaska    

Anomaly correlations

2 4 6 8 10 120

2

4

6

8

10

12CM2.5 FLOR, EBS

2 4 6 8 10 120

2

4

6

8

10

12CFSv2, EBS

2 4 6 8 10 120

2

4

6

8

10Persist, EBS

2 4 6 8 10 120

2

4

6

8

10

12CM2.5 FLOR, GoA

2 4 6 8 10 120

2

4

6

8

10

12CFSv2, GoA

2 4 6 8 10 120

2

4

6

8

10Persist, GoA

2 4 6 8 10 120

2

4

6

8

10

12CM2.5 FLOR, CC

2 4 6 8 10 120

2

4

6

8

10

12CFSv2, CC

2 4 6 8 10 120

2

4

6

8

10Persist, CC

2 4 6 8 10 120

2

4

6

8

10

12CM2.5 FLOR, IP−H

2 4 6 8 10 120

2

4

6

8

10

12CFSv2, IP−H

2 4 6 8 10 120

2

4

6

8

10Persist, IP−H

−1 −0.8 −0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Fore

cast

Lea

d (m

onth

s)

Initializaton Month

Calendar  Month  

Forecast  Lead  in  M

onths    

NEUS  SEUS  

SST Prediction for Coastal Ecosystems •  Forecast skill of NOAA climate models (CFS, FLOR)

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