Adapting to climate change in Canada

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  • This article was downloaded by: [University of Alberta]On: 27 November 2014, At: 19:56Publisher: RoutledgeInforma Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number: 1072954 Registered office: Mortimer House,37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1T 3JH, UK

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    Adapting to climate change in CanadaNils Larsson aa International Initiative for a Sustainable Built Environment, 130 Lewis Street, Ottawa K2P0S7, Canada E-mail: larsson@greenbuilding.caPublished online: 18 Oct 2010.

    To cite this article: Nils Larsson (2003) Adapting to climate change in Canada, Building Research & Information, 31:3-4,231-239, DOI: 10.1080/09613210320000976

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  • Adapting to climate change in Canada

    Nils Larsson

    International Initiative for a Sustainable Built Environment,130 Lewis Street,Ottawa K2P 0S7,CanadaE-mail: larsson@greenbuilding.ca

    The differences between mitigation and adaptation strategies are explained in terms of their environmental, institutional

    and political significance and linkages. The potential climate changes for Canadas different regions are presented and

    discussed for their overall and specific built environment impacts. Current national strategies and polices related to

    adaptation are still in a formative stage, but they recognize that responding to climate change requires actions not only to

    reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but also to adapt to climate change. A national Framework for Adaptation is expected

    in 2003. Examples are provided of both the public and private sector efforts to consider adaptation to climate change at

    various scales. An overview of potential Canadian climate change trends and measures related to mitigation and

    adaptation is presented, with implications for establishing a research agenda for the built environment.

    Keywords: adaptation, building stock, climate change, governance, public policy, risk management, sustainability, Canada

    Cet article explique les differences entre les strategies de reduction et dadaptation et ce quelles signifient pour

    lenvironnement, les institutions et la politique ainsi que leurs relations. Lauteur presente et analyse les changements

    climatiques et leurs consequences globales et specifiques sur le cadre bati au Canada. Les strategies et les politiques

    canadiennes actuelles en matiere dadaptation en sont toujours a letat de gestation mais il est admis que pour reagir aux

    changements climatiques il faut prendre des mesures afin de non seulement reduire les emissions de gaz a effet de serre

    mais aussi de sadapter a ces changements. Un Cadre national dadaptation est prevu pour 2003. Lauteur donne des

    exemples des travaux entrepris par le secteur public et le secteur prive pour etudier ladaptation aux changements

    climatiques a diverses echelles. Il presente succinctement les tendances possibles en matiere de changement climatique

    ainsi que les mesures de reduction et dadaptation avant dexposer les implications liees a la redaction dun programme

    de recherche sur le cadre bati.

    Mots cles: adaptation, parc immobilier, changements climatiques, gouvernance, politique publique, gestion du risque,

    durabilite, Canada

    BackgroundReducing the risks that climate change may presentrequires both global actions to reduce the build up ofgreenhouse gases in the atmosphere to slow the rateof change (mitigation) as well as making adjustmentsin our practices and policies that take a changingclimate into account (adaptation) (Figure 1).

    Most discussion of adaptation has occurred in the con-text of the needs of developing countries. As a recentpaper states:

    These questions are important to the develop-ing countries both because they wish to reduce

    their vulnerability to climate change in themost effective ways, and because they areessentially in competition with each otherfor whatever international funds may becomeavailable to help them meet the costs ofadaptation. . . . The developed countries haveshown less interest in their own need foradaptation, and have generally assumed thatthey have the financial and technical resourcesto adapt as and when necessary. To this extent,adaptation will only be seriously entertained indeveloped countries when it becomes evidentlynecessary.

    (Burton et al., 2002)

    BUILDING RESEARCH & INFORMATION (2003) 31(34), 231239

    Building Research & Information ISSN 0961-3218 print ISSN 1466-4321 online # 2003 Taylor & Francis Ltdhttp: www.tandf.co.uk journals

    DOI: 10.1080 09613210320000976

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  • Another reason why adaptation may have had a lowerpriority in Canada is that work in this area might betaken as a public indication that mitigation actions arelikely to be unsuccessful. Within the last few years,however, there has been a recognition by Canada thatthere is a need to develop adaptation measures as wellas continuing with strong measures for mitigation. TheThird Assessment Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (Watson et al., 2001) was animportant milestone in the global recognition of adapta-tion as a necessary response strategy to climate change.

    The questions addressed here are: What are the potentialimpacts of climate change? What existing strategies andactions are being pursued? What strategies and measuresmight be put in place to allow Canada to adapt to therange of climate change impacts that are currentlyforeseen? As a starting point, it is evident that in the builtenvironment, a number of the adaptation strategies andmeasures may overlap with those undertaken for thepurposes of mitigation or conflict with each other.

    Although both mitigation and adaptation issues arepart of an overriding climate change scenario, there arepoints of major difference.

    Understanding mitigation, impacts and adaptationIn one sense, mitigation is not difficult to understand,since relatively few drivers of greenhouse gas emissions

    (GHG), such as the type, extent and intensity ofindustrial, commercial, residential, transportationand recreational activities, appear to be directly impli-cated in a singular global effect. Also, thereare national quantifiable targets for emissions andpotential for an international timetable for attain-ment of the targets. A successful mitigation strategy,because it deals with relatively few systems, cantherefore be conceptually relatively simple, eventhough it requires a large measure of political will andsupport, coupled with the knowledge and willingnessof the private sector and practitioners to implementthese actions.

    Adaptation, on the other hand, is potentially morecomplex, since it will involve an interplay of eco-nomic, social and climate change effects, such asincreased winter and summer temperatures, orchanges in precipitation and flood risks, which arelikely to be highly differentiated in many widely differ-ent regions. Adaptation strategies are therefore likelyto require continuous adjustments by a large numberof actors, until a more stable climate regime isachieved.

    Clearly, the ultimate effect on any given region will bea synergistic result of the interaction of these individualfactors, and this increases the difficulty of assessing thecomposite impact in any given location.

    Figure 1 Mitigation and adaptation responses to climate change. Source: IPCC (2001)

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  • Finally, adaptation is not guided by fixed targets andtimetables; it will be required at different times in thefuture and to varying extents in different regions andsectors. In many cases, adaptation to climate changewill inevitably be mainstreamed into on-going plan-ning processes, designs and regulations.

    Dierences in timingAn aspect that will affect the interaction betweenmitigation, impact and adaptation is the considerabledifferences in timeframes for all three issues. Figure 2shows a crude approximation of the relationshipbetween the three and the changes in intensity of each,against the background of steadily increasing GHGproduction. Because of the long time lags in climatechange impacts, mitigation measures must be anticipa-tory and relatively concentrated to have any usefuleffect. Adaptation measures, on the other hand (andwith some exceptions), will probably be implementedin a more gradual fashion, as specific climate changeeffects become apparent.

    It should be noted that a degree of change in climate isalready apparent (drought in the Prairies, more hotdays during the summer everywhere), although thereis a lively debate about whether or not these changesare part of a natural cycle or are early signs of GHG-caused climate change. In public opinion, it is thecurrent effect that is the main driver, and this createspossibilities for achieving action even if the scientificbasis still causes some debate.

    StakeholdersThe two issues of mitigation and adaptation involvevastly different stakeholder groups, with differentviews and priorities.

    Mitigation discussions tend to involve those who focuson energy use, while adaptation will involve a broadercross-section of players. The exception may be inagriculture where both mitigation and adaptation mea-sures will be very closely linked. By its nature, mitigationrequires a national response from the federal govern-ment with the mandate to enter into international agree-ments. However, it is also dependent on the provincesthat manage many of the natural resources. Althoughmunicipal, private sector and individual decision-making

    will also be important in mitigation activities, in Canadait will probably occur within the context of the largerfederalprovincialterritorial process.

    As in mitigation, governments at all levels have impor-tant roles to play in the development and implementa-tion of adaptation measures, but the role of localgovernments and private-sector organisations may bemore important because of the need to develop mea-sures attuned to the widely differing needs of variousregions and communities. Implementation of adapta-tion measures will also rely heavily on individualhouseholds.

    Priorities and supportGHG emissions are global in their effects and, unlesseffective measures are rapidly implemented, there islikely to be a major long-term impact on humanactivity everywhere; in this sense, mitigation has tobe a priority for responsible national governments,including the Canadian government. When it comes totaking action, however, it is sometimes difficult to sellthis argument to the average citizen or even to well-educated professionals because of the perceivedremoteness of the impacts in time and space.1

    Adaptation, on the other hand, appears to have apotential for greater public support, given the publicperception that it is directly affected and that we arealready feeling the effects of climate change throughmilder winters and record-breaking summer hot spells.Also, given the precedent that many energy efficiencymeasures have been adopted over the last 10 years withno pressure or inducement, as long as they are posi-tioned as leading to improved conditions for health,comfort or productivity, this kind of spin-off benefitneeds to be emphasised wherever possible and realistic.

    Given the potential greater public support for adapta-tion measures, work in this area may best be regardedas a concurrent activity that does not detract from theoverriding need to deal with GHG reductions, and willprobably even aid in its achievement.

    Links between mitigation and adaptation measuresEven a cursory analysis indicates that most specificmeasures in the building sector are likely to relate to

    Figure 2 Timing

    Adapting to climate change in Canada

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  • both mitigation and adaptation. For example, actionsto improve energy performance of buildings or tochange landscape design will reduce GHG emissions(amounts depending on modes of power generation),but may also increase thermal comfort in the warmersummers predicted under climate change scenarios forCanada. This is a good thing, since it will be easier tofind public support and private-sector take-up for mea-sures that have a positive effect related to adaptation aswell as mitigation.

    As already mentioned, some climate change effectsare already apparent, even if the causal factors are notyet firmly established in the minds of politicians orthe public. This creates an opportunity to implementintegrated measures that serve both mitigation andadaptation agendas since, even if support for large-scaleand anticipatory mitigation measures remains to betested, there is likely to be more immediate support fortaking action on perceptions of immediate adaptationproblems, such as coping with warmer summersthrough, for example, improvements in the energy-efficiency of buildings.

    There are a few potential measure areas where thereare conflicts between the goals of mitigation and adap-tation, and it appears logical to undertake an especiallycareful study of such areas. For example, an increase inambient winter temperatures may lead to reduced sup-port for energy efficiency measures due to a longerpayback period; increased summer temperatures willprobably lead to an increased demand for space cool-ing; and an increase of summer smog conditions insome areas such as Toronto (potentially caused byemissions from upstream coal-fired generating facilitiesas well as purely climatic effects) will probably reducethe current interest in natural or hybrid ventilation ofbuildings. These and other potential areas of conflictrequire priority attention for the development of inte-grated packages of measures.

    Future climate and potential impactsIt must first be noted that while future changes on aglobal to continental scale are well understood, a greatdeal of uncertainty exists about the exact location, typeand intensity of climate change effects are likely to beexperienced in Canada at local to regional scales.This stems fundamentally from the current limitationson climate modelling and from uncertainty in futureemissions profiles, but is complicated by the large anddiverse landscapes and water bodies that comprise thegeography of Canada.

    The projections outlined in the Working Group II con-tribution to the IPPC Third Assessment Report(McCarthy et al., 2001), provide separate outlooksby large regions. For North America, the climatechange effects that are anticipated to be borne by the

    built environment, assuming that weak or no mitiga-tion measures are implemented, include:

    Fewer periods of extreme cold

    Increased frequency of extreme heat

    Rising sea levels and risk of storm surge (subduc-tion of the East Coast, combined with rising sealevels will create a risk of coastal flooding)

    Changes in timing, frequency and severity of flood-ing associated with storms and precipitationextremes

    The report goes on to state that:

    Changes in the frequency, severity and durationof extreme events may be amongst the mostimportant risks associated with climate change.The rising cost of natural disasters in NorthAmerica illustrates the vulnerability of currentsettlement practices.

    (McCarthy et al., 2001 p. 384)

    The regional aspects of some of the changes are easy toidentify:

    Climate changes in Arctic land areas might bedramatic by 2080: summer temperatures increasedby 4.07.5C, winter temperatures increased by2.514.0C. Such changes will lead to thawing ofpermafrost, leading to soils with reduced bearingcapacity in ice-rich regions and existing areas ofdiscontinuous permafrost (McCarthy et al., 2001p. 813)

    There will be increased flooding risk from highersea levels and storm surges, with the Fraser Riverdelta, Nova Scotia and Beaufort Sea region beingespecially at risk. These areas would also face thepossibility of saline intrusion in coastal aquifers(McCarthy et al., 2001 p. 767)

    Urbanised areas in southern Ontario would be espe-cially at risk from increased air pollution duringsummers due to warmer ambient temperatures.This could be further complicated by increased peakdemand for electricity from coal-fired power plantsboth in Ontario and the Mid-West US. An alterna-tive outlook is described by Torrie (2002), in whicha scenario based on aggressive mitigation measuresresulted in a major cut in electrical demand, therebyallowing inefficient coal-fired plants to be closed

    Mid-west areas will see an increasing likelihood ofsevere droughts. This could increase the fire risk forsmall settlements in such regions, where forestedareas are in close proximity

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  • However, it is more difficult to be specific about thespecific location or intensity of other climate changeeffects, such as:

    Increased wind and driving rain conditions in someareas

    Possible reduction in water quality

    Desertification in drought areas, which couldincrease the risk of flooding buildings located nearedges of flood plains

    Possible increase in ice storm damage, which couldlead utilities to push for more local co-generation,or cause a need for expensive burial of high-voltagepower lines

    Increase in termites or other pests, reducing build-ing life span or possibly requiring expensive coun-ter measures

    Potential increase in intensity and frequency ofextreme weather and climate events

    Some other likely effects will have specific effects on thebuilding sector:

    Increases in summer temperatures may be the mostimportant effect of climate change impacts on thebuilding sector in Canada, since cooling is gener-ally supplied by provided by electrically poweredequipment, which is expensive. In all regions, peakdemand is usually met by more inefficient forms ofgeneration which contribute to GHG emissions

    In large urban areas, increased heat island effectduring summers will lead to comfort and healthproblems, especially for the elderly and very young,and a consequent increase in cooling energyrequirements

    Warmer winters will lead to reduced space heatingrequirements. In the Canadian context, this is seenas a positive effect. However, warmer winters mayreduce support for energy efficiency, therebyundercutting mitigation efforts

    Warmer winters may also lead to improved pro-ductivity in the construction industry, since com-mercial construction is currently restricted duringwinter (e.g. concrete cannot be effectively pouredin temperatures below 20C)

    Changes in precipitation and drought are also aconcern for the building industry. More frequentand extreme droughts may lead to increased foun-dation problems in areas of clay soils. Winter snowloads may change, requiring changes to building

    codes. Increased temperature, drought and extremerainfall events also have implications for watersupply, sewage systems and the carrying capacityof different regions

    Although not well projected yet, changes in the fre-quency of storms will have building code implica-tions (e.g. wind loads) and siting of buildings toavoid damage from floods and other hazards

    Finally, there may be secondary impacts, such aschanges in insurance coverage. As regions becomeexposed to greater risks from extreme events, pri-vate property insurance may become unavailablein some areas.

    Current strategies and actionCurrent strategies and polices related to adaptation arestill in a formative stage. Canadas National Strategyon Climate Change, approved by federal, provincialand territorial energy and environment ministers in2000, recognises that responding to climate changerequires actions not only to reduce GHG, but also toadapt to climate change. In May 2002, these ministersapproved a national Framework for Adaptation(Anon., 2002b) and charged a national working groupwith the task of developing an approach for implemen-tation. Nothing is publicly available, but a report isexpected to be released in 2003.

    At the same time, the public and the private sector havestarted to consider adaptation to climate change atvarious scales. Examples include:

    Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency2 isworking with its provincial and territorial partnersto examine how to include the impacts of climatechange in the assessment process

    Canadian Council of Professional Engineers islooking at how climate changes will affect the prac-tice of engineering and also at what changes needto be made in the education of engineers to dealwith the issue

    City of Toronto through its Cool Toronto project3

    is promoting adaptation activities to help cool theurban heat island. These include promotion ofhealthy green spaces and urban forests, the use ofreflective materials for pavement and roofing, andexamination of city design to promote cooling

    Government of Canada Climate Change Impactsand Adaptation Program has funded a number ofprojects that examine the vulnerability of infra-structure to climate change including the coastalcommunities coping with sea level rise and resi-

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  • liency of northern communities to permafrostdegradation

    Insurance Bureau of Canada has establishedthe Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction at theUniversity of Western Ontario; part of its mandateis to look at climate change impacts

    Adaptation and Impacts Research Group,Environment Canada, with support of theProgram on Energy Research and Development(PERD), recently sponsored a workshop on vulner-ability and adaptation issues related to the energy-generation sector (Anon., 2002a). Most of thediscussion centred on energy supply. The authorattended the event and found that the most impor-tant conclusion was that the energy industryparticipants found it a challenge to incorporateuncertain model information and unfamiliar tools,such as climate scenarios, in their planning.

    Climate Change Action Fund, Impacts andAdaptation component funded 75 projects fundedbetween 1998 and 2001, several of whichrelated to communities, infrastructure and build-ings.4 It should be noted that the largest singlegroup of projects attempt to assess the vulner-ability and potential adaptation mechanism suitedto Arctic and rural communities. There are rela-tively few projects related to urban communitiesand only one focusing on buildings (see Appendix)

    Note that most of these current initiatives, selected fortheir relevance to the built environment, deal withbroader or community issues, and none deal withbuilding design or performance per se. Although it isquite logical and understandable that the first waveof research should be focused at this general level, aneffort to develop adaptation ideas for measures relatedto the building stock are now needed.

    Potential trends and measures related tomitigation and adaptationThere are a large number of possible measures thatcould be implemented to deal with mitigation and/oradaptation issues in Canada. Before reviewing therange of potential specific trends and measures, it isuseful to outline some general and preliminary initia-tives that would be required to set the stage for morespecific measures. These include the following:

    Climatologists require tools and resources to pro-duce local models to allow better prediction ofweather and other impacts of climate change inspecific regions and even cities

    Communities exposed to greater risk of permafrostthawing, flooding, fire and severe wind events must

    be identified, and strategies developed to minimisepotential damage and disruption

    Research is needed to define better the vulnerabilityof current and new buildings and urban neighbour-hoods, by type and location, to climate change andto develop best practices and standards that willreduce the risks

    Sample surveys of building types that are consi-dered to be most vulnerable will be required, andthe range of measures required to cope with newconditions will have to be developed

    R&D activities will be required to develop high-efficiency co-generation and cooling systems andto develop design strategies to suit new tempera-ture conditions

    Materials and designs will require testing for theirappropriateness to a changing climate andCanadian conditions

    Awareness of climate change and the techniques toaddress it will have to be undertaken in coopera-tion with professional and industry associations

    Policies and programmes will have to be designedto help affected parties cope with the financialimpact of required measures or to ensure uptakeof the desired approaches

    With regard to more specific trends and measures,some will be changes in demand arising naturally fromchanged conditions, while others would be the result ofconscious initiatives. All of these can be set into threedistinct categories: trends or measures that will satisfyadaptation needs but will damage mitigation efforts;trends or measures that serve adaptation needs withoutnegative effect on mitigation efforts; and measuresthat primarily serve both adaptation and mitigationagendas.

    Potential adaptation trends initiated within the privatesector that will harm mitigation efforts:

    There may be an increased demand for mechanical(instead of natural) ventilation in buildings locatedin some of the densely populated areas of southernOntario to deal with increased air pollution levels.Such a trend will drive up energy demand and con-sequent emissions

    There will probably be an increase in demand formechanical cooling in many areas of Canadadue to increased summer temperatures. Such atrend will increase cooling energy demand andconsequent emissions

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  • Potential adaptation trends or measures that will notharm mitigation efforts:

    In extreme cases of vulnerability to thawed perma-frost or seacoast flooding, relocation may be theonly option

    In rural areas, development densities may need tobe reduced for flooding and fire control

    Urban management techniques will need to bedeveloped to deal with more sudden weatherevents

    Awareness campaigns will have to be established toreduce cooling demand

    Use of building-scale or local gas co-generation toreduce dependence on power grids will probablyhave to be increased in case there is increased vul-nerability to ice storm damage from longer periodsof warmer winter temperatures.

    Potential trends or measures that will serve both miti-gation and adaptation efforts:

    Change urban development pattern to higher den-sities and mixed uses in urban areas, thereby redu-cing embodied emissions from infrastructure andfrom commuting transport

    In generating stations, switch fuel sources fromcoal (82% of GHG emissions) to natural gas andfuel oil

    Develop economic annual thermal storage systems(neighbourhood based) to reduce summer coolingloads

    Reduce heat island effect and cooling loads inurban areas through green roofs, high albedoexterior surfaces and extensive tree planting

    Maintain or improve operating energy perfor-mance requirements of new and existing buildingsthrough regulation (e.g. the Model NationalEnergy Code for Buildings) (NRC/CNRC, 1997)

    Improve designed operating energy performance ofnew buildings through extended application of theexisting Commercial Building Incentive Program,which provides financial incentives for designs thatare shown to provide at least a 25% improvementrelative to the MNECB in predicted performance(NRC/CNRC 2001)

    For new buildings, adopt natural cooling designstrategies: optimum orientation, exterior sun-shades, underground make-up air supply

    Develop new generations of high-efficiency chillers/cooling systems

    Install high-efficiency chillers/cooling systems innew and existing buildings. Since chillers andboilers are usually replaced on a 1525-year cycle,there are several opportunities for improvement ina climate change time scale

    Develop technologies for effective filtration andheat recovery for use in natural ventilation systems

    Improve the energy efficiency of buildings in opera-tion through training and education in improvedmanagement and maintenance techniques

    Provide training and guidance on better envelopedesign

    Adopt national building performance labellingschemes to provide market recognition for highperformance, thereby increasing market demand

    Note that the large majority of the measures thatcan be envisaged will serve both the mitigationand adaptation agendas. It therefore appearslogical to develop strategies that recognise thisrelationship from the start. However, given thepotential that adaptation measures will be of moreimmediate appeal to the public, it may be wisest toplay up the adaptation potential of such integratedmeasures.

    Also, note that some of the potential measures relateto renovation or retrofit, while others are related tonew construction. With respect to this aspect, newbuildings represent only about 3% of the total stockat any time, but have considerable cumulative effectsover 20 years. Thus, even though renovation andretrofit may be a priority as immediate mitigationmeasures, the effects of new buildings, with presum-ably considerably improved levels of performance,may be a more important priority in a long-termadaptation strategy (Figure 3).5

    ConclusionsClimate change will affect the building sector as well asother major sectors of the economy. The scope and theextent of specific impacts related to the building sectoris still uncertain in detail, although the broad outlinescan be forecast with some certainty, including highertemperatures, soil and foundation problems, reducedambient air quality, with specific impacts varying bylocation.

    As in most countries, work specifically on adaptationhas begun relatively recently. Initial work on adapta-tion in the building sector, mostly undertaken since

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  • 1998, has so far been limited to community-levelissues. However, the establishment of a NationalWorking Group in 2002 suggests that the subject ofadaptation, generally, will receive rather more atten-tion in the future.

    Specific measures that can be taken to adapt to climatechange, including both those generated by marketforces and those initiated by governments, can alsobe predicted with some certainty. Interestingly, mostpotential adaptation measures appear to be compatiblewith those measures required for mitigation purposes,with a few significant exceptions. Dealing with theseexceptions should form a focus for action so thatmitigation efforts are not impeded, with consequentworsening of climate change effects.

    Whether or not the range of actions discussed here willbe sufficient to allow life to go on more or less as usualis, of course, an open question, since the exact intensityand scope of climate change effects remain to bedetermined.

    AcknowledgementsThe author gratefully acknowledges the useful infor-mation provided by Pamela Kertland, ClimateChange Impacts & Adaptation Program in NaturalResources Canada, and the extraordinary patience andsupport provided by the Guest Editor, Robert Lowe,and by the Editor, Richard Lorch. The views expressedhere are solely the responsibility of the author.

    ReferencesAnon (2002a) Climate Scenarios for the Canadian Energy Sector:

    A Synthesis, Adaptation and Impacts Research Group,Atmospheric and Climate Science Directorate, EnvironmentCanada.

    Anon (2002b) National Adaptation Framework: recordof decision [http://www.nccp.ca/NCCP/pdf/national_adapta-tion_framework_e.pdf ] (accessed 12 January 2003).

    Burton, I., Huq, S., Lim, B., Pilifosova, O. and Schipper, E.L.(2002) From impacts assessment to adaptation priorities: theshaping of adaptation policy. Climate Policy, 2, 145159.

    McCarthy, J.J., Canziani, O.F., Leary, N.A., Dokken, D.J. andWhite, K.S. (eds) (2001) Climate Change 2001: Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of WorkingGroup II to the Third Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, CambridgeUniversity Press, Cambridge.

    NRC/CNRC (1997) Model National Energy Code for Buildings(MNECB), Institute for Research in Construction, NationalResearch Council Canada, Ottawa [http://irc.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/publications].

    NRC/CNRC (2001) Evaluation of the Commercial BuildingIncentive Program March 2001, Institute for Research inConstruction, National Research Council Canada, Ottawa[http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/dmo/auev/Reports/Cbip/index_e.html] (accessed 12 January 2003).

    Torrie, R. (2002) Kyoto and Beyond: The Low Emission Path toInnovation and Efficiency. Torrie Smith Associates, Ottawa,for the David Suzuki Foundation and the Canadian ClimateAction Network.

    Watson, R.T. et al. (eds) (2001) Climate Change 2001: SynthesisReport, Stand-alone Edn, Cambridge University Press,Cambridge.

    Endnotes1Current national polls indicate that public support for theadoption of Kyoto measures is over 75%, but a falloff in supportmay be expected when the impacts of measures on personalfinances and behaviour take effect.

    2www.ceaa-acee.gc.ca

    3www.city.toronto.on.ca/taf/cool_toronto.htm

    4From website of the Canadian Climate Change Action Fund[http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca].

    5Assumes commercial and institutional demolitions at 2% peryear, and growth at 2.4% per year.

    Figure 3 Inuence of new commercial stock over time

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  • Appendix 1Projects funded under the Climate Change ActionFund, Impacts and Adaptation component, that relateto communities and the built environment:

    Impacts of climate change on permafrost inCanada; M. Smith, Carleton University

    Climate change and permafrost on the WesternArctic Coast; S. Wolfe, Natural Resources Canada

    Mapping permafrost degradation and environmen-tal impact response to climate change; W. Pollard,McGill University

    Climate change and Arctic communities: impactsand adaptations in Sachs Harbour, Banks Island,NWT; G. Ashford, International Institute forSustainable Development

    Climate change, permafrost degradation and infra-structure adaptation: community case studies in theMackenzie Valley; M. Burgess, Natural ResourcesCanada

    Climate change impacts and adaptation inNewfoundland coastal communities: trial projectin Conception Bay south; N. Catto, MemorialUniversity

    FCM municipal infrastructure risk project: adapt-ing to climate change; A. Jeena, Federation ofCanadian Municipalities

    Climate change, water resources and rural commu-nity capacity to adapt; J. Smithers, University ofGuelph

    Adaptability of Prairie cities: the role of climate;V. Wittrock, Saskatchewan Research Council

    Evaluation of risk of erosion and flooding in BC;M. Horita, Environment Canada

    Assessment of the impact of climate variability andchange on the reliability, resilience and vulnera-bility of complex flood protection systems;S. Simonovic, University of Manitoba

    Development of model adaptation strategies toreduce health risks from summer heat in Toronto;P. Jessup, City of Toronto

    Integrated assessment of climate change andtourism in the Georgian Lakeland tourism district;D. Scott, University of Waterloo

    Groundwater and climate change interaction insouthern Ontario; A. Piggott, EnvironmentCanada

    Evaluating rooftop and vertical gardens as anadaptation strategy for urban areas; B. Baskaran,National Research Council

    Adapting to climate change in Canada

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