Adapting Urban Areas to Climate Change

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<ul><li><p>CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: </p><p>IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY </p><p>Adapting urban areas to climate change (Chapter 8) Debra Roberts, PhD (also a local government official) Ethekwini Municipality Durban, South Africa. </p></li><li><p>CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: </p><p>IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY </p><p>Whats New? </p><p> Strong focus on urban areas </p></li><li><p>The post-2015 agenda must be relevant for urban dwellers. Cities are </p><p>where the battle for sustainable development will be won or lost. </p><p>Report of the High-Level Panel of Eminent Persons on the Post 2015 Development Agenda. </p></li><li><p> 3.7 billion people today, doubling in less developed regions by 2050 </p><p> Most of the worlds economy and assets: 600 cities account for 60% of the worlds GDP </p><p> Makes cities vulnerable to climate change risks flood, drought, extreme heat (UHI) and precipitation with food security, human health and infrastructural impacts and losses </p><p>Urban centres concentrate people and assets: </p></li><li><p>URBAN AREAS ARE WHERE THE CLIMATE CHANGE RUBBER HITS THE ROAD </p><p>VULNERABILITY AND EXPOSURE </p></li><li><p>1950 </p></li><li><p>2025 </p></li><li><p>CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: </p><p>IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY </p><p>Whats New? </p><p> Adaptation-development links </p></li><li><p> Very large development and infrastructure deficits Most of the worlds urban population is in low- and </p><p>middle-income developing countries </p><p> Loss of ecological infrastructure </p><p> A billion living in informal settlements </p><p>Underdevelopment makes cities vulnerable regardless of the type of risk: </p></li><li><p>Unique global opportunity: Annual urban infrastructure spend from $10 trillion to more than $20 trillion by 2025, majority spent in urban centers in emerging economies opportunity of aging infrastructure. </p><p>Half of what will be the built environment of 2030 does not exist today. Arthur C. Nelson Brookings Institute </p></li><li><p>12 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500</p><p>US Local governments (average)Porto Alegre (Brazil)</p><p>Belo Horizonte (Brazil)Sevilla (Spain)</p><p>Canoas (Brazil)Cascais (Portugal)</p><p>Ilo (Peru)Medellin (Colombia)</p><p>Guarulhos (Brazil)eThekwini (South Africa)</p><p>Windhoek (Namibia)Cape Town (South Africa)</p><p>Varzea Paulista (Brazil)Johannesburg (South Africa)</p><p>Walvis Bay (Namibia)Rosario (Argentina)San Antonio (Chile)</p><p>La Serena (Chile)Quillota (Chile)</p><p>Chengdu (China)Iztapalapa (Mexico)</p><p>Addis Ababa (Ethiopia)Maputo (Mozambique)</p><p>Kigali (Rwanda)Ampasy Nahampoana (Madagascar)</p><p>Dar es Salaam (Tanzania)Kampala (Uganda)</p><p>Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso)Dakar (Senegal)</p><p>Saint-Louis (Senegal)Dondo (Mozambique)</p><p>Accra (Ghana)Rufisque Est (Senegal)</p><p>Bamako (Mali)</p><p>Different and unequal abilities to </p><p>access the adaptation dividend of this </p><p>urban build: Municipal annual budget </p><p>per inhabitant (US$) </p></li><li><p>The spectrum of urban adaptive capacity </p><p>[Source: Developed from Table 8.2 in IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014), Working Group II.] </p><p>potential to address root causes of poverty and </p><p>failures in sustainable development, including the need for rapid progress on </p><p>mitigation. Has the ability to </p><p>fundamentally change the attributes of urban </p><p>systems </p></li><li><p>WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS and FAILURE TO ADAPT </p><p>INCREASE </p><p>RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE </p></li><li><p>RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASE WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS AND FAILURE/INABILITY TO ADAPT </p><p> High adaption in the near term more effective in reducing risk than in the long-term (2oC). </p><p> In a 4oC world risks are high and generally remain high or adaption is not possible. </p><p> This is the world of loss and damage. </p><p>Key risks and potential to reduce risk through adaptation </p></li><li><p>Key risks Adaptation issues &amp; prospects Climate drivers Risk &amp; potential for adapt- ation </p></li><li><p>EFFECTIVE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION </p><p>A MORE VIBRANT WORLD </p></li><li><p>Climate change </p><p>adaptation </p><p>Climate change </p><p>mitigation </p><p>Disaster risk reduction </p><p>The urban agendas </p><p>Poverty reduction and </p><p>universal provision of </p><p>services* </p><p>* Following sustainable development principles </p><p>FOCUS ON INTEGRATED DECISION-MAKING TO GENERATE MULTIPLE BENEFITS AND MANAGE TRADE-OFFS </p></li><li><p>Poverty reduction and universal provision of services </p><p>Climate change adaptation </p><p>Disaster risk reduction </p><p>The urban agendas </p><p>Climate change mitigation </p><p>More limited overlap with climate change mitigation as consequences of investments in only emerge over </p><p>time </p><p>Large overlaps especially in low- and lower-middle income nations Reforestation - Improved water supplies - flood reduction - carbon storage </p></li><li><p>Climate change mitigation </p><p>Poverty reduction and universal provision of services </p><p>Climate change </p><p>adaptation </p><p>Disaster risk reduction </p><p> In long-term dangerous climate change has profound influence on the other three </p><p> Date when even strong adaptation cannot reduce risks without mitigation </p><p> Transformative adaptation The urban agendas </p></li><li><p>CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: </p><p>IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY </p><p>Whats New? </p><p> Key roles of local governments - will </p><p>need to plan and manage much of the </p><p>transformative adaptation that is </p><p>needed. </p></li><li><p> Unique policy competence </p><p> Engagement with local stakeholders </p><p> Tap/influence private and household investment </p><p> Economies of scale </p><p> Integrate land use and infrastructure planning to address adaptation and mitigation needs in a pro-poor and ecologically sustainable manner </p><p>Urban climate governance advantage </p><p>Local governments do not have all the right policy levers nor the resources to get the job done </p></li><li><p> Appropriate mandates to avoid hitting resource or </p><p>policy glass ceiling. Local powers for good planning and managing land use </p><p>change Alignment across national, sub-national, local policies Access to locally relevant, timely climate data and </p><p>assessment tools, recognize and work with uncertainty Iterative decision-making including monitoring and </p><p>design for continuous learning Leadership matters! actively create local leaders </p><p>Effective urban climate risk governance </p></li><li><p> Thank you </p><p>Dr Debra Roberts Environmental Planning and Climate Protection Department Ethekwini Municipality Durban, South Africa debra.roberts@durban.gov.za </p></li></ul>