adapting urban areas to climate change

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  • CLIMATE CHANGE 2014:

    IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY

    Adapting urban areas to climate change (Chapter 8) Debra Roberts, PhD (also a local government official) Ethekwini Municipality Durban, South Africa.

  • CLIMATE CHANGE 2014:

    IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY

    Whats New?

    Strong focus on urban areas

  • The post-2015 agenda must be relevant for urban dwellers. Cities are

    where the battle for sustainable development will be won or lost.

    Report of the High-Level Panel of Eminent Persons on the Post 2015 Development Agenda.

  • 3.7 billion people today, doubling in less developed regions by 2050

    Most of the worlds economy and assets: 600 cities account for 60% of the worlds GDP

    Makes cities vulnerable to climate change risks flood, drought, extreme heat (UHI) and precipitation with food security, human health and infrastructural impacts and losses

    Urban centres concentrate people and assets:

  • URBAN AREAS ARE WHERE THE CLIMATE CHANGE RUBBER HITS THE ROAD

    VULNERABILITY AND EXPOSURE

  • 1950

  • 2025

  • CLIMATE CHANGE 2014:

    IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY

    Whats New?

    Adaptation-development links

  • Very large development and infrastructure deficits Most of the worlds urban population is in low- and

    middle-income developing countries

    Loss of ecological infrastructure

    A billion living in informal settlements

    Underdevelopment makes cities vulnerable regardless of the type of risk:

  • Unique global opportunity: Annual urban infrastructure spend from $10 trillion to more than $20 trillion by 2025, majority spent in urban centers in emerging economies opportunity of aging infrastructure.

    Half of what will be the built environment of 2030 does not exist today. Arthur C. Nelson Brookings Institute

  • 12 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

    US Local governments (average)Porto Alegre (Brazil)

    Belo Horizonte (Brazil)Sevilla (Spain)

    Canoas (Brazil)Cascais (Portugal)

    Ilo (Peru)Medellin (Colombia)

    Guarulhos (Brazil)eThekwini (South Africa)

    Windhoek (Namibia)Cape Town (South Africa)

    Varzea Paulista (Brazil)Johannesburg (South Africa)

    Walvis Bay (Namibia)Rosario (Argentina)San Antonio (Chile)

    La Serena (Chile)Quillota (Chile)

    Chengdu (China)Iztapalapa (Mexico)

    Addis Ababa (Ethiopia)Maputo (Mozambique)

    Kigali (Rwanda)Ampasy Nahampoana (Madagascar)

    Dar es Salaam (Tanzania)Kampala (Uganda)

    Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso)Dakar (Senegal)

    Saint-Louis (Senegal)Dondo (Mozambique)

    Accra (Ghana)Rufisque Est (Senegal)

    Bamako (Mali)

    Different and unequal abilities to

    access the adaptation dividend of this

    urban build: Municipal annual budget

    per inhabitant (US$)

  • The spectrum of urban adaptive capacity

    [Source: Developed from Table 8.2 in IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014), Working Group II.]

    potential to address root causes of poverty and

    failures in sustainable development, including the need for rapid progress on

    mitigation. Has the ability to

    fundamentally change the attributes of urban

    systems

  • WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS and FAILURE TO ADAPT

    INCREASE

    RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

  • RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASE WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS AND FAILURE/INABILITY TO ADAPT

    High adaption in the near term more effective in reducing risk than in the long-term (2oC).

    In a 4oC world risks are high and generally remain high or adaption is not possible.

    This is the world of loss and damage.

    Key risks and potential to reduce risk through adaptation

  • Key risks Adaptation issues & prospects Climate drivers Risk & potential for adapt- ation

  • EFFECTIVE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

    A MORE VIBRANT WORLD

  • Climate change

    adaptation

    Climate change

    mitigation

    Disaster risk reduction

    The urban agendas

    Poverty reduction and

    universal provision of

    services*

    * Following sustainable development principles

    FOCUS ON INTEGRATED DECISION-MAKING TO GENERATE MULTIPLE BENEFITS AND MANAGE TRADE-OFFS

  • Poverty reduction and universal provision of services

    Climate change adaptation

    Disaster risk reduction

    The urban agendas

    Climate change mitigation

    More limited overlap with climate change mitigation as consequences of investments in only emerge over

    time

    Large overlaps especially in low- and lower-middle income nations Reforestation - Improved water supplies - flood reduction - carbon storage

  • Climate change mitigation

    Poverty reduction and universal provision of services

    Climate change

    adaptation

    Disaster risk reduction

    In long-term dangerous climate change has profound influence on the other three

    Date when even strong adaptation cannot reduce risks without mitigation

    Transformative adaptation The urban agendas

  • CLIMATE CHANGE 2014:

    IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY

    Whats New?

    Key roles of local governments - will

    need to plan and manage much of the

    transformative adaptation that is

    needed.

  • Unique policy competence

    Engagement with local stakeholders

    Tap/influence private and household investment

    Economies of scale

    Integrate land use and infrastructure planning to address adaptation and mitigation needs in a pro-poor and ecologically sustainable manner

    Urban climate governance advantage

    Local governments do not have all the right policy levers nor the resources to get the job done

  • Appropriate mandates to avoid hitting resource or

    policy glass ceiling. Local powers for good planning and managing land use

    change Alignment across national, sub-national, local policies Access to locally relevant, timely climate data and

    assessment tools, recognize and work with uncertainty Iterative decision-making including monitoring and

    design for continuous learning Leadership matters! actively create local leaders

    Effective urban climate risk governance

  • Thank you

    Dr Debra Roberts Environmental Planning and Climate Protection Department Ethekwini Municipality Durban, South Africa debra.roberts@durban.gov.za