Adapting to Climate Adapting to Climate ChangeChange

Activities, Lessons learned, work in progress and Activities, Lessons learned, work in progress and recommendations for Latin America and The Caribbean recommendations for Latin America and The Caribbean

regionregion

Climate Change Team, World BankClimate Change Team, World Bank

• Building Awareness.• Building monitoring and analysis

capability • Building planning capacity in

institutions

• Developing national policy framework for adaptation.• Mainstreaming climate change issues into key sector activities. • Preparation of pilot adaptation projects.• Further strengthening of awareness andparticipation.• Further strengthening of knowledge base

Building awarenessand strengthening

knowledge base

Creating an enablingenvironment for

adaptationCPACCCPACC

MACCMACC

• Policy framework for adaptation in place• Projects being implemented.• Awareness and participation high.• Monitoring, analysis and planning integrated throughout all national and sectoral planning.

Implementation

PublicAwareness

and Participation

PolicyInstitutions

KnowledgeBase

Implementation

PublicAwareness

and Participation

PolicyInstitutions

KnowledgeBase

Implementation

PublicAwareness

and Participation

PolicyInstitutions

KnowledgeBase

AdaptationAdaptation

Enabling activitiesEnabling activities

Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change (CPACC) $5.0 m.Climate Change (CPACC) $5.0 m.• Awareness & capacity buildingAwareness & capacity building• Documenting trends & impactsDocumenting trends & impacts• Institutional strengtheningInstitutional strengthening

Mainstreaming adaptation to climate Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change (MACC) $4.5 mchange (MACC) $4.5 m• Vulnerability assessmentsVulnerability assessments• Sector policies Sector policies

CPACC’s achievementsCPACC’s achievements Sea-level and climate monitoring systemSea-level and climate monitoring system Increased appreciation of climate change Increased appreciation of climate change

issues at the policy-making level and technical issues at the policy-making level and technical support to regional positioning at the support to regional positioning at the Convention.Convention.

Establishment of coral reef monitoring Establishment of coral reef monitoring protocols.protocols.

Creation of a network for regional Creation of a network for regional harmonization of actions to adapt to the harmonization of actions to adapt to the impacts of climate changeimpacts of climate change

Creation of the Caribbean Climate Change Creation of the Caribbean Climate Change CenterCenter

Red de Observacion del Nivel del Mar para America Central (RONMAC)

&

Caribbean: Planning for Adaptation to Global Climate Change (CPACC)

Non-CPACC/RONMAC Monitoring Site

CPACC/RONMAC Monitoring Site

GUATEMALA

HONDURAS

BE

LIZ

E

NICARAGUA

EL SALVADOR

JAMAICA

BAHAMAS

GUYANA

TRINIDAD &

TOBAGO

BARBADOS

GRENADA

ST. VINCENT

ST. LUCIA

DOMINICA

ANTIGUA

ST. KITTS

MACCMACC

Assess the impact of climate change impacts Assess the impact of climate change impacts on freshwater availabilityon freshwater availability

Understand the impacts of shifting fishing Understand the impacts of shifting fishing grounds, impact on total stocks and the grounds, impact on total stocks and the bleaching and death of coral reefsbleaching and death of coral reefs

Improve the understanding of climate change Improve the understanding of climate change impacts on local agricultureimpacts on local agriculture

Revamp land use planing and coastal zone Revamp land use planing and coastal zone managementmanagement

Dominica, St. Lucia and Dominica, St. Lucia and StSt. Vincent: . Vincent: Implementation of adaptation Implementation of adaptation

measures in measures in coastalcoastal zones zones (US$3.9 m)(US$3.9 m)

Formulate and implement adaptation Formulate and implement adaptation measures to face impacts on coastal measures to face impacts on coastal zones:zones:• Ecosystems: Coastal and marine Ecosystems: Coastal and marine

ecosystemsecosystems• Service: Water supply Service: Water supply • Economic activity: Fisheries and tourismEconomic activity: Fisheries and tourism

ActivitiesActivities

• Water Water Counter saline intrusion and changed Counter saline intrusion and changed

precipitation patterns with water supply and precipitation patterns with water supply and conservation policy.conservation policy.

• Coastal and marine ecosystemsCoastal and marine ecosystems Strengthen conservation regime, reduce local Strengthen conservation regime, reduce local

stresses; additional protection measures.stresses; additional protection measures.

• Fisheries and tourismFisheries and tourism Adjust patterns of use of ecosystem services, Adjust patterns of use of ecosystem services,

proactively invest in conservationproactively invest in conservation

Caribbean SPACaribbean SPA

Climate change special program Climate change special program ($0.4 m)($0.4 m)• Interpret, apply results of GCM to Interpret, apply results of GCM to

Caribbean scaleCaribbean scale• Develop an economic assessment tool Develop an economic assessment tool

for adaptation measuresfor adaptation measures

SPACSPAC

Phase III activities Phase III activities • SupportSupport for select adaptation for select adaptation

investmentsinvestments Reduction of vulnerability of water resources Reduction of vulnerability of water resources Conserving and restoring coastal Conserving and restoring coastal

ecosystems and structures likely to be ecosystems and structures likely to be impacted by CCimpacted by CC

Reduction in pressures on biodiversityReduction in pressures on biodiversity Establishment of coordinated legal Establishment of coordinated legal

institutional and operational frameworkinstitutional and operational framework

Special Program on Adaptation in the CaribbeanSpecial Program on Adaptation in the CaribbeanSPACSPAC

The project would support two activities: The project would support two activities:

1. Detailed design of pilot adaptation programs 1. Detailed design of pilot adaptation programs to reduce expected negative impacts of to reduce expected negative impacts of climate change on coastal biodiversity and climate change on coastal biodiversity and land degradation:land degradation:

(i)(i) technical design of interventions and assessment technical design of interventions and assessment of expected outcomes; of expected outcomes; (ii)(ii) cost effectiveness analysis of proposed cost effectiveness analysis of proposed adaptation investments under projected GCC adaptation investments under projected GCC scenarios; scenarios; (iii)(iii) Monitoring and evaluation of project activities Monitoring and evaluation of project activities and outcomes, with specific objective of maximizing and outcomes, with specific objective of maximizing its learning value.its learning value.

Special Program on Adaptation in the CaribbeanSpecial Program on Adaptation in the CaribbeanSPACSPAC

2. Implementation of pilot adaptation 2. Implementation of pilot adaptation investments: investments:

The project will support the implementation, on a The project will support the implementation, on a pilot basis, of selected adaptation pilot basis, of selected adaptation investments: investments:

(i)(i) Reduction of water resources vulnerability;Reduction of water resources vulnerability;

(ii)(ii) Conserving and restoring coastal ecosystems Conserving and restoring coastal ecosystems impacted by GCC; impacted by GCC;

(iii)(iii) Reduction of pressures on biodiversity from Reduction of pressures on biodiversity from habitat conversion induced by GCC impacts; habitat conversion induced by GCC impacts;

(iv)(iv) Reduction of GCC impacts on coastal and marine Reduction of GCC impacts on coastal and marine resources; resources;

ANDES REGION, GLACIER YANAMAREY( Cordillera Blanca-altitute 4786 m above sea level)

GRL: Bradley et al 2005

Impacts At High AltitudesAnalysis of 7 GCM simulations with 2x CO2 levels shows large and statistically significant free air temperature changes (compared to controls) along the axis of the American Cordillera (from Alaska to southern Chile).

At all latitudes, the change in temperature increases with elevation, especially in South America

NCAR

The economic and social costs of the destruction of tropical glaciers

Impact on water supply to Andean cities:Impact on water supply to Andean cities:• QuitoQuito 50% water dependency from glacier 50% water dependency from glacier

basinsbasins• La Paz 30% dependencyLa Paz 30% dependency• Bogota, 100% on water supply from highland Bogota, 100% on water supply from highland

moorlandsmoorlands Impact on energyImpact on energy

• Most countries in the Andes are dependent on Most countries in the Andes are dependent on hydro energy for power generationhydro energy for power generation

Glacier retreat: impact on energyGlacier retreat: impact on energy

Most countries in the Andes are dependent on Most countries in the Andes are dependent on hydro energy for power generationhydro energy for power generation

BoliviaBolivia 50%50% ColombiaColombia 73%73% EcuadorEcuador 72%72% PeruPeru 81%81%

Ecuador

Bolivia

The costs of glacier retreat for the The costs of glacier retreat for the power sector in Perupower sector in Peru

Table 2. The Cost of Glacier Retreat for Energy Sector, Perú (US$ million/year)

Cañon del Pato power plant National estimates

Reduced melting No melting Reduced melting No melting

Wholesale price 5.7 11.5 60.0 120.0

Opportunity cost 10.1 20.3 106.0 212.0

Rationing cost 71.5 144.0 748.0 1,503.0

The costs of glacier retreat for The costs of glacier retreat for water supply to Quitowater supply to Quito

Year Existing conditions Creek systems diverted

Investment US$ million

Expected conditions Creek systems diverted

Investment US$ million

01 110. 143 02 110 143 03

Papallacta, Chalpi, Blanco Grande, Quiljos, Azufrado 113

All creek systems are required

144 12 10 39 13

Casanga 11

Reservoirs and minor creeks 40

17 22 18

Antizana - Cosanga 22

Total NPV value 298 391

Investment needs: Rios Orientales project with and without climate change

 

  

  

  

Bio-tope

Current(1 x CO2)

Future(2 x CO2)

Difference ( 2 x CO2 - 1 x CO2)

K Ha K Ha K Ha % de cambio

Páramo(up to 4000 m)

323 84. -238. -75

Superpáramo(up to 4500 m)

40. 6. -34. -85

Nival 45. 1.3 -43.7 -95 

Estimated loss of high mountain habitat in Northern Andes (Gutierrez, 2002)(Potentially devastating impacts on water supply, agriculture, power generation)

Hydro Pelton 44.4%

Hydro Francis 20.9%

CCGT 9.5%

Coal/ Steam 7%

Gas/ Steam 6.5%

Fueloil/ Steam 2.2%

OCGT 9.3%

Installed Power Generation Installed Power Generation Capacity (2001)Capacity (2001)

Colombia: Integrated National Colombia: Integrated National Adaptation Program ($8.5 m)Adaptation Program ($8.5 m)

Formulate and implement adaptation Formulate and implement adaptation measures to face impacts on:measures to face impacts on:• Ecosystems:Ecosystems:

High mountain ecosystemsHigh mountain ecosystems Insular areasInsular areas

• Services:Services: Water, power, ecosystem integrity, healthWater, power, ecosystem integrity, health

• Economic activity:Economic activity: Agriculture, energyAgriculture, energy

Anticipated impacts: High MountainAnticipated impacts: High Mountain

GlobalGlobal• Destruction of Destruction of

endemic habitatendemic habitat• Extinction of global Extinction of global

biodiversitybiodiversity• Release of carbon Release of carbon

from Paramo soilsfrom Paramo soils• Increased stress on Increased stress on

down slope habitats down slope habitats (primary rainforests)(primary rainforests)

• Carbonization of Carbonization of power sectorpower sector

Regional, localRegional, local• Loss of water Loss of water

storage functionstorage function• Impact on water Impact on water

supply to urban supply to urban areasareas

• Increased Increased likelihood of Fireslikelihood of Fires

• DesertificationDesertification

Chaparral

Rioblanco

Planadas

SanAntonio

Tuluá

Buga

Palmira

Pradera

El Cerrito

Ginebra

Guacarí

Sn José Hermosas

Barragán

Roncesvalles

ActivitiesActivities High mountains: a) restoration and conservation of soil High mountains: a) restoration and conservation of soil

cover for water and carbon retention; b) development of cover for water and carbon retention; b) development of alternatives to high mountain economic activitiesalternatives to high mountain economic activities

Insular areas: counter the reduction in coral areas, and Insular areas: counter the reduction in coral areas, and expansion of the protection regime for marine areas, as expansion of the protection regime for marine areas, as well as water conservation and supply system.well as water conservation and supply system.

Power sector: a) higher level of water reserves in existing Power sector: a) higher level of water reserves in existing reservoirs; b) development of non-hydro, renewable energy reservoirs; b) development of non-hydro, renewable energy resources (wind, biomass, solar)resources (wind, biomass, solar)

Health sector: modifications to account for higher rates of Health sector: modifications to account for higher rates of exposure to tropical diseases.exposure to tropical diseases.

Climate Change Special Program ($0.4 m)

--Measure carbon and water retention andflows--Provide permanent high altitude weather stations--Document horizontal precipitation and otherweather variables--Store and process climate data--Document trends and impacts

LessonsLessons

Strong institutions ‘sine qua non’Strong institutions ‘sine qua non’ Strong partnershipsStrong partnerships Political leveragePolitical leverage Credibility of the Bank on climate Credibility of the Bank on climate

issuesissues Exploit synergism with mitigation Exploit synergism with mitigation

activitiesactivities

Strengthen work on institutional development and technical Strengthen work on institutional development and technical assistance in climate change. assistance in climate change.

Support better understanding of regional climate trends and Support better understanding of regional climate trends and projected impacts.projected impacts.

Mainstreaming of climate concerns into national and regional Mainstreaming of climate concerns into national and regional policies and development activitiespolicies and development activities

Work on ecosystem restoration and climate change adaptation to be Work on ecosystem restoration and climate change adaptation to be made more complementary and mutually supportivemade more complementary and mutually supportive

Synergies between the mitigation work (with carbon revenues) and Synergies between the mitigation work (with carbon revenues) and adaptation opportunities in the region.adaptation opportunities in the region.

RECOMMNENDATIONSRECOMMNENDATIONS

Region/ Country

Project/Activity GEF or TF amount

SOF Status Available documentation

Caribbean (CARICOM* nations)

CPACC (Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change)

5.8 GEF–Enabling activities

Completed ICR

Caribbean (CARICOM nations)

MACC (Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change)

5.0 GEF–Enabling activities

Under implementation

PAD

Dominica, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and The Grenadines

SPACC (Implementation of Adaptation Measures in Coastal Zones)

2.1 GEF–Strategic Priority on Adaptation

In GEF workprogram

PDF-B

Colombia INAP (Integrated National Adaptation Program)

5.4 GEF–Strategic Priority on Adaptation

Under implementation

PAD

Central Andes Adaptation to impacts from Tropical Glacier Melt

8.0 GEF–Strategic Priority on Adaptation

In GEF workprogram

PDF-B

Trinidad and Tobago

Nariva Wetlands restoration and Carbon Offset

3.0 BioCarbon Fund In the BioCarbon Fund workprogram

CFD

St. Lucia Reducing uncertainties from projected impacts of climate change

0.3 Climate Change Special Program

Under implementation

Grant agreement

Colombia Measurement of climate trends and impacts in the central range of the Colombian Andes

0.4 Climate Change Special Program

Under implementation

Grant agreement

Mexico Reducing vulnerabilities of gulf coast wetlands to climate impacts (subsidence and salinization)

8.0 Strategic Priority on Adaptation

Submitted to GEF for consideration

Draft PDF-B

Central America Increased resilience to intensification of hurricanes

6.0 Special Climate Change Fund

Draft PDF-B

Access to information and linking Access to information and linking science to developmentscience to development

Provide a bridge between science and Provide a bridge between science and developmentdevelopment• Meteorological Research Institute (Japan)Meteorological Research Institute (Japan)• National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA)National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA)• Pool of glaciology institutes (Insbruck, IRD, Pool of glaciology institutes (Insbruck, IRD,

UMASS)UMASS)• Japanese Space Agency (Japan)Japanese Space Agency (Japan)• Georgia Tech University (USA)Georgia Tech University (USA)• NOAA (USA) NOAA (USA)

Support institutions and efforts to Support institutions and efforts to mainstream climate concernsmainstream climate concerns

Assess costs and impacts of climate changeAssess costs and impacts of climate change

Partnership MRI-World Bank-Partnership MRI-World Bank-IDEAM, CCCCC, CONAM, INEIDEAM, CCCCC, CONAM, INE

Scope of the Cooperation. Scope of the Cooperation. • training in Japan to enabletraining in Japan to enable efficient use of ES dataefficient use of ES data• technical assistance technical assistance to interpret resultsto interpret results• scientific exchangescientific exchange• cooperation for disseminationcooperation for dissemination of results in scientific literatureof results in scientific literature• data storagedata storage• feedback to ES for better feedback to ES for better future simulation at regionalfuture simulation at regional levellevel

Projected drop in winter rainfall Projected drop in winter rainfall over Mexico for 2050over Mexico for 2050

Winter PrecipitationWinter Precipitation

Perez and Mendez, unpublished data, 2006

NCAR Scientific Support facilitiesNCAR Scientific Support facilities• 900 Staff• 500 Scientists/Engineers• ~$200m funding (NSF)

• 4 Boulder-area campuses• 5 Laboratories• 45 years experience

2. Computational Resources

1. Observational Facilities

3. Community Models

NCAR CCSM: Community Climate System Model

Inter-tropical convergence regional model

NCARNCARExperimental Hurricane AnalysesExperimental Hurricane Analyses

Wind from Numerical Forecast Likelihood of Wind Damage

Electric Grid Damage Electric Grid Restoration

Brian Bush, 2005Brian Bush, 2005

Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, JAXA, ALOS

Three instruments for remote sensing

PRISMPRISM3-D Data on ground surface with 3-D Data on ground surface with

2.5 meter spatial resolution2.5 meter spatial resolution

Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, JAXA, ALOS

AVNIR-2AVNIR-2Infra-red radiometer for obtaining dataInfra-red radiometer for obtaining data

on land use and vegetation with on land use and vegetation with 10 meter Spatial resolution 10 meter Spatial resolution

PALSARPALSARSynthetic aperture radar suited toSynthetic aperture radar suited toDetect changes in topography and Detect changes in topography and

Geology from signals reflectedGeology from signals reflected on earth’s surfaceon earth’s surface