2040 lrtp tech memo #5: freight and intermodal forecasts

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  • Technical Memorandum #5 Freight and Intermodal Systems

    February 3, 2015

  • 2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THE MOVEMENT OF GOODS THROUGH OUR PORTS, ON OUR RAILS AND ON OUR ROADS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GROW SIGNIFICANTLY. EFFICIENT AND RELIABLE ACCESS TO THE RAIL FACILITIES AND PORTS ARE CRITICAL FOR OUR REGIONS ABILITY TO COMPETE IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.

    Our region is located at the confluence of three major railroads (Norfolk Southern, CSX and Florida East Coast (FEC)) and two major interstate facilities (I-10 and I-95). North Florida includes major port facilities at Blount Island, Dames Point Talleyrand and Fernandina, an international airport, and a spaceport facility at Cecil Commerce Center. More than 200 million persons or 63% of the U.S. population is easily served by rail and 63 million persons or 20% of the population is reachable in one day by truck. We serve as the gateway to Floridas 19.5 million residents. These unique transportation market service areas solidify our regions position as Americas Logistic Center.

    Floridas strong economic outlook and population growth make this market one of the fastest growing in the US. These markets demand and the shippers that serve them expect highly reliable and efficient transportation services for our region to maintain our competitiveness in the global economy.

    The movement of goods on our rails and roads are anticipated to grow significantly. This growth will contribute to significant increases in highway road congestion. Efficient and reliable access to the rail facilities and ports are critical for our regions ability to compete in the global economy. To relieve this congestion and provide for more efficient movement of freight and intermodal container movements, investments in freight-related projects are needed.

    The following major freight and intermodal project needs were identified through various planning efforts of the North Florida Transportation Planning Organization (TPO), Jacksonville Port Authority (JAXPORT), Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT), Ocean Highway and Port Authority (Port of Fernandina) and the Jacksonville Aviation Authority.

    Mile Point Navigation Improvements Jacksonville Harbor Deepening Rail capacity projects for CSX, Norfolk Southern and FEC Intermodal Yard Improvements and access for CSX, Norfolk Southern and FEC North Area/Jacksonville Rail Corridor Port access improvements at the Port of Fernandina

    The total cost of the needs is $3.4 billion. In addition to these needs, future needs that were identified based on the market demand analysis include:

    The need for additional rail intermodal facility capacity beyond the Intermodal Container Transfer Facility (ICTF) at Dames Point. Currently the FECs and Norfolk Southerns regional intermodal facilities are operating near practical capacity. About 1 million intermodal container twenty-foot equivalency units or (TEUs) are being shipped in North Florida today. This market is anticipated to grow to 2.8 to 4.3 million TEUs by the year 2040. Additional intermodal facility capacity is needed to meet this demand. One potential solution to meet this need is the development of a public-private partnership for a joint-use intermodal facility.

    Additional track improvement projects beyond the adopted needs plan may be needed. The planned operation of commuter rail, and potentially intercity passenger rail service by Amtrak or a private operator, will place increased demand on the rail track operational capacity within the region. Several system bottlenecks are likely to restrict the ability to meet the rail service demand. These include the Springfield Switch, FEC Rail Crossing of the St. Johns River and the Crawford Diamond crossing of CSX and Norfolk Southern. Additional rail operational modeling is needed for the region to identify other bottlenecks and recommend specific solutions to address these needs.

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  • 2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan

    CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................................................. III

    LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................................................... III

    INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................................... 1

    CURRENT SITUATION ....................................................................................................................................................... 2

    MULTIMODAL FREIGHT NETWORK ................................................................................................................................................... 2 Highways ............................................................................................................................................................................. 2 Rail ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Ports ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Aviation ................................................................................................................................................................................ 7 Support Infrastructure ......................................................................................................................................................... 7

    CURRENT FREIGHT MOVEMENTS ..................................................................................................................................................... 9 Trucking ............................................................................................................................................................................. 11 Ports ................................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Rail ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Air Cargo ............................................................................................................................................................................ 11

    TOP COMMODITIES TYPES ............................................................................................................................................................ 12

    FUTURE FREIGHT DEMAND ............................................................................................................................................ 27

    INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................................................................... 27 FORECASTING METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................................................................................... 27 PORT INTERMODAL ..................................................................................................................................................................... 29 RAIL ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 33

    Rail Intermodal .................................................................................................................................................................. 33 Rail Carload ........................................................................................................................................................................ 36

    TRUCK INTERMODAL FORECASTS .................................................................................................................................................... 36 Truck Trips and Volumes .................................................................................................................................................... 36 Growth Rates ..................................................................................................................................................................... 36

    AIR CARGO ................................................................................................................................................................................ 37 DEMAND VS. CAPACITY ANALYSIS .................................................................................................................................................. 37

    Intermodal Facilities ........................................................................................................................................................... 37 Track Capacity .................................................................................................................................................................... 43

    TRUCK MODEL IN THE NERPM-AB .................................................................................................................................. 45

    FREIGHT NEEDS ....................................................................................................