April 15, 2014

2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

for Volusia Transportation Planning Organization

AGENDA A. Discussion of the Vision Statement for the

2040 LRTP

B. Discussion of Goals, Objectives and Performance Measures

C. Presentation and Discussion of Draft Constrained Trend Socioeconomic Data Forecast Methodology and Alternative Land Use Scenario.

Our transportation system will provide a safe and accessible range of options that enhances existing urban areas while providing mobility in a fiscally responsible, energy efficient, and environmentally compatible manner. This integrated system will support economic development, allowing for the effective movement of all people, goods, and services necessary to maintain and enhance our quality of life.

Vision Statement For 2040 LRTP

Goals, Objectives & Performance Measures

Goals, Objectives & Performance Measures • Goals represent the desired end result

• Objectives are the criteria to achieve each Goal

• Performance Measures are the specific measurements by which the Plan is evaluated

Federal, State & Regional Guidance Federal • MAP-21 Implementation Schedule

• Rulemaking for Performance Measures to be completed Spring 2015

• SAFETEA-LU Planning Factors

State• Florida Transportation Plan – “Horizon 2060”• Florida Strategic Highway Safety Plan

Regional• Strategic Regional Policy Plans (SRPP)

• East Central Florida Regional Planning Council - “East Central Florida 2060 Plan”

• Expanded TPO Planning Area• Northeast Florida Regional Council - “Strategic Directions”

Suggested Goals

• Clear & Succinct Goal Statements

• New Goal Emphasizing Safety and Security

• Federal and State Emphasis on Highway Safety and Transit Safety

6 Goals For 2040 LRTP

Goal 1Provide a Balanced and

Efficient Multimodal Transportation System

Goal 2Support Economic

Development

Goal 3Enhance Connectivity and

Transportation Choices

Goal 4Improve Safety and Security

Goal 5Continue to Provide and Create

New Quality Places

Goal 6Provide Transportation Equity

and Encourage Public Participation

Objective 1.1 - Balanced Multimodal System

Develop a multimodal transportation system that improves the accessibility and mobility to economic centers for all users (vehicle, bicycle and pedestrian) as well as the movement of goods.

Objective 1.2 - Roadway Efficiency

Minimize congestion and delay on roadways and intersections through projects that improve capacity, provide more efficient use and operation of existing transportation facilities, and reduce transportation demand.

Objective 1.3 - Transit Efficiency

Provide public transit systems that deliver efficient and convenient transit service.

Goal 1: Provide a Balanced and Efficient Multimodal Transportation System

Objective 1.4 - Financial Efficiency

Develop a Plan that maximizes use of all available existing and alternative revenue sources and is financially feasible.

Objective 1.5 - Cost Effectiveness

Incorporate measures that give priority to projects that provide high benefit-to-cost considerations.

Goal 1: Provide a Balanced and Efficient Multimodal Transportation System

Objective 2.1 - Economic BenefitDevelop a transportation system that supports regional and local economic growth and diversity and improves the economic competitiveness of the region.

Objective 2.2 - Freight MovementIdentify and support safe and efficient truck routes and other facilities that improve freight and goods movement.

Objective 2.3 - Access to Intermodal FacilitiesImprove connectivity and access to rail, port and airport facilities.

Objective 2.4 - Transit Access to EmploymentSupport funding of transit service that improves access to employment centers.

Goal 2: Support Economic Development

Objective 3.1 - Multimodal Transportation OptionsProvide a range of transportation alternatives to improve mobility for all citizens with special consideration for the elderly, people with disabilities, and those unable to drive.

Objective 3.2 - Interconnectivity Between ModesMaximize the interconnectivity of roadways, sidewalks, bicycle facilities, trails, transit and other transportation system components to provide safe and convenient pedestrian, bicycle, transit and motor vehicle mobility.

Objective 3.3 - Connectivity Between Activity CentersEnhance regional connectivity to employment, education, health, entertainment and other major activity centers.

Objective 3.4 - Connectivity Between JurisdictionsEnhance connectivity between local government jurisdictions within the region.

Goal 3: Enhance Connectivity and Transportation Choices

Objective 4.1 - Roadway System SafetyIdentify and prioritize improvements to reduce the frequency and severity of crashes, and minimize injuries and fatalities.

Objective 4.2 - Bicycle and Pedestrian SafetyIdentify and implement safety programs and enhancements to improve the safety of pedestrian and bicycle facilities.

Objective 4.3 - Transit System Security and SafetyEnhance security of transit systems through appropriate design, monitoring and enforcement programs.

Objective 4.4 - Emergency EvacuationDevelop a transportation plan that supports emergency evacuation, response and post-disaster recovery; and improves national, state and local security and emergency management functions.

Goal 4: Improve Safety and Security

Objective 5.1 - Land Use Efficiency

Promote compact, walkable, mixed use development and redevelopment opportunities that encourage a range of transportation options and maximize the effectiveness of the transportation system.

Objective 5.2 - Preserve and Enhance Existing Communities

Develop a transportation plan with components planned and designed to preserve and enhance existing urban areas and communities.

Objective 5.2 - Comprehensive Planning

Support local visioning and planning principles by developing a Plan that is consistent with local government comprehensive plans to the maximize extent feasible.

Goal 5: Continue to Provide and Create New Quality Places

Objective 5.3 - Natural Resource Protection

Locate and design transportation facilities to avoid or minimize the impact to natural resources including environmentally sensitive areas, and critical lands, waters and habitats.

Objective 5.4 - Air & Water Quality Protection

Develop and support a multimodal transportation system that maintains or reduces vehicle greenhouse gas emissions and pollutants that degrade water quality.

Goal 5: Continue to Provide and Create New Quality Places

Objective 6.1 - Public InvolvementProvide opportunities for public participation that is open, inclusive and accessible for all citizens; and develop outreach programs to engage citizens of all jurisdictions and the traditionally under-served and under-represented.

Objective 6.2 - Transportation Equity Include provisions to identify the needs of low income and minority populations and ensure that projects in the Plan do not disproportionally burden low income and minority populations, and include measures to avoid, minimize or mitigate adverse impacts.

Objective 6.3 - Transit Access to Low Income and Transit Dependent PopulationsSupport transportation investments that improve public transit services for low income and transit development populations to gain access to jobs, schools, health services, and other needed services.

Goal 6: Provide Transportation Equity and Encourage Public Participation

Goal 1: Provide a Balanced and Efficient Multimodal Transportation System

Objective Performance Measure

1.1 - Balanced Multimodal SystemThe Plan incorporates multimodal projects that increase the mobility to economic centers for all users, including pedestrian, bicycle, transit and automobile

1.2 - Roadway Efficiency

Percent of lane miles with V/C ratio greater than 1.0

Total daily vehicle hours of delay

Average Trip Length

The Plan includes Transportation Systems Management (TSM), Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) and Transportation Demand Management (TDM) projects and programs

1.3 - Transit EfficiencyTotal transit trips per capita

Total passengers per hour

1.4 - Financial Efficiency

The Plan includes existing and alternative federal, state and local revenue sources, user fees and private contributions

The Plan is financially feasible

1.5 - Cost Effectiveness The Plan includes a prioritization process that incorporates cost/benefit considerations

Goal 2: Support Economic Development

Objective Performance Measure

2.1 - Economic Benefit Jobs created resulting from transportation investments

2.2 - Freight Movement Average V/C on designated truck routes

2.3 - Access to Intermodal Facilities Number of lane miles on roads connecting rail, port and airport facilities

2.4 - Transit Access to Employment Percent of total employment within ¼ mile of transit service

Goal 3: Enhance Connectivity and Transportation Choices

Objective Performance Measure

3.1 - Multimodal Transportation Options

Percent of roadway lane miles with sidewalks

Percent of roadway lane miles with bicycle facilities

Percent of roadway lane miles with transit routes

Total miles of multi-use paths and trails

3.1 - Interconnectivity Between Modes The Plan includes projects that provide interconnectivity between modes

3.2 - Connectivity Between Activity Centers The Plan includes transportation corridors connecting designated Activity Centers

3.3 - Connectivity Between Jurisdictions

Roadway corridors crossing political jurisdictions have same functional classification and number of lanes

Number of transit routes connecting different jurisdictions

Goal 4: Improve Safety and Security

Objective Performance Measure

4.1 - Roadway System Safety

Crash rates per million VMT

Total number of fatalities/severe injuries

4.2 - Bicycle and Pedestrian Safety Total number of pedestrian and bicycle crashes

4.2 - Transit System Security & Safety Certification of Responsible Agencies

4.3 - Emergency Evacuation Average V/C of evacuation routes

Goal 5: Create Quality Places

Objective Performance Measure

5.1 - Land Use Efficiency

The Plan prioritizes projects that promote TOD or Smart Growth principles, including Complete Streets

The Plan promotes compact, walkable, mixed use development and redevelopment

5.2 - Protect and Enhance Existing Communities The Plan incorporates provisions to ensure projects preserve and enhance existing communities

5.2 - Comprehensive Planning The Plan is consistent with local government comprehensive plans

5.3 - Natural Resource Protection

The Plan minimizes impacts to environmentally sensitive areas and protects natural resources

Transportation projects recommended for inclusion in the 5-Year Work Plan should be screened through the Efficient Transportation Decision Making (ETDM) process

5.4 - Air & Water Quality Protection

The Plan maintains or reduces per capita greenhouse gas emissions

Transportation projects in the Plan include provisions for stormwater management

Goal 6: Provide Transportation Equity and Encourage Public Participation

Objective Performance Measure

6.1 - Public Involvement

The Plan includes public notice and access to public workshops and meetings to all jurisdictions of the TPO

A Public Involvement Plan has been adopted that includes outreach to the traditionally under-served and under-represented

6.2 - Transportation Equity The Plan avoids, minimizes, or mitigates adverse impacts to low income and minority populations

6.3 - Transit Access to Low Income and Transit Dependent Populations

Percent of households below poverty level or no auto ownership within ¼ mile of transit service

Population & Employment Forecast

Why Forecast?

• Necessary input to the transportation model

• Increase awareness of neighboring jurisdictions’ plans

• Highlight the connection between land use planning and transportation outcomes

• Investigate how changes to the land use approach might affect the transportation system

Analyzing Alternatives

Constrained Trend Socioeconomic Data

Similar to the approach of previous

LRTP updatesUp to date and

consistent with Comp Plans

Committees supply a check for local

accuracy

Land Use Alternative

Builds on the Trend Forecast

Optimizes land use efficiency

Collaborative process to test opportunities

Constrained Trend Methodology

• Start with data from the 2035 LRTP Update

• Use the new 2010 base year to correct and update

• Gather input from LRTP and TCC committees on:

• Major changes to future land use (e.g. DRIs added or withdrawn)

• Review of 2035 Employment Projections (ZDATA2 was distributed to LRTP and TTC for review)

What’s Changed since the 2035 LRTP Update?• New 2010 Base Year

• What didn’t get built that was expected?

• What got built that wasn’t expected?

• New Control Totals for Volusia County

2035 LRTP Update Population2000 Actual: 443,575 2005 Actual: 494,6312035 Forecast: 692,763 2040 LRTP Update2010 Actual: 494,5932013 Actual: 498,9782040 BEBR Med forecast: 592,700

What’s Changed since the 2035 LRTP Update?• New 2010 Base Year

• What didn’t get built that was expected?

• What got built that wasn’t expected?

• New Control Totals for Volusia County

2035 LRTP Update Population Annual10 YR Rate2000 Actual: 443,575 2005 Actual: 494,631 2.2%24%2035 Forecast: 692,763 1.3%13% 2040 LRTP Update Population Annual10 YR Rate2010 Actual: 494,593 -0.01% -0.1%2013 Actual: 498,978 0.3%2.8%2040 BEBR Med forecast: 592,7000.6% 6.2%

Where we are

• Comparing 2010 actuals to previous 2015 projections

• Despite overall growth being lower than expected; some growth did occur in unexpected places

• ZDATA2 (Employment) was sent to LRTP and TTC committee for comments by April 10th.

• No comments have been received

• Request for updated large projects by April 10th.

• Received input from Volusia County re: Farmton DRI

• Transferring 2035 growth data to 2040 model TAZ structure (TAZ splits)

Review of TAZ splits

A more detailed look at BEBR• New 2040 BEBR Projections for Volusia

County

BEBRChan

ge2035 Plan

Change

(a) 2005

494,631 494,631

(a) 2010 494,593 -38

(a) 2013 498,978 4,385

2015 507,700 8,722 529,49230,51

4

2020 530,50022,80

0579,44

549,95

3

2025 550,50020,00

0630,68

551,24

0

2030 567,20016,70

0 662,70532,02

0

2035580,90

013,70

0692,763

30,058

2040592,70

011,80

0

Revisions to DRIs• New 2040 BEBR Projections for Volusia

County

New BEBR

Growth

2035 Plan

Growth Farmton

Farmton

Growth

% of BEBR

(a) 2005 494,631 494,631

(a) 2010 494,593 -38

(a) 2013 498,978

(4,385)

2015 507,700 13,107 529,492 30,514 2,491 2,491 19%2020 530,500 22,800 579,445 49,953 7,091 4,600 20%2025 550,500 20,000 630,685 51,240 11,691 4,600 23%

2030 567,200 16,700 662,705 32,020 16,291 4,600 28%

2035580,90

0 13,700 692,763 30,058 20,891* 4,600 34%

2040592,70

0 11,800 25,491 4,600 39%2045 30,091 4,6002050 34,691 4,6002055 39,291 4,6002060 43,890* 4,600

• * Based on 10,995 units by 2035 and 23,100 units by 2060

• Farmton projection for 2040 is equal to 26% of the overall BEBR growth projected from 2010-2040

Coming soon

• Draft of Constrained Trend Socioeconomic Dataset anticipated on April 25th for review

• Review TAZ splits by jurisdictions as requested

Overview of Land Use Alternative• Highlight areas where

compact, walkable development has the most impact

• Increase jobs/housing balance

• Support multiple modes (transit, walking)

• Reduce reliance on regional highway system for everyday trips

Walkability Measures

• An Atlanta study measured:• Land Use Mix

• Density

• Connectivity

• Correlated to:• Lower VMT

• More walk/bike trips

• Lower emissions

“This pattern holds true regardless of many other factors … age, whether they had a driver’s license, their household income, vehicles per household, household size, transit accessibility and regional location”

Overview of Alternative Land Use

• Potential measures of success:

• Reduce VMT (trip length)

• Reduce per capita VHT (time spent traveling)

• Increased transit/walk share of mode split

• Increased reverse commuting

Questions?

THANK YOU