west northamptonshire joint planning unit

Roger Tym & Partners t: 0116 249 3970 3 Museum Square e: 0116 249 3971 Leicester e: [email protected] LE1 6UF w: www.tymconsult.com

Final Draft Report February 2011

West Northamptonshire Joint Planning Unit

West Northamptonshire Retail Study Update Volume 1 Main Report

RTP Job number M9462

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CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION & STRUCTURE OF REPORT .................................................................................................. 1

Context .................................................................................................................................................................. 2

2 PLANNING POLICY ............................................................................................................................................. 5

3 THE EXISTING NETWORK OF CENTRES ........................................................................................................ 11

Centres in Northampton ...................................................................................................................................... 12

Daventry town centre .......................................................................................................................................... 16

South Northamptonshire town centres ................................................................................................................ 16

Summary and recommendations on the network of centres ............................................................................... 17

4 CURRENT AND FUTURE STUDY AREA SPENDING ....................................................................................... 19

Study Area Definition .......................................................................................................................................... 19

Existing and future population of the Study Area ................................................................................................ 21

Expenditure Data Inputs ...................................................................................................................................... 22

Comparison Spending in the West Northamptonshire Catchment Area.............................................................. 23

Convenience Spending in the West Northamptonshire Catchment Area ............................................................ 25

5 CURRENT PATTERNS OF RETAIL SPENDING ............................................................................................... 27

Household Survey Methodology ......................................................................................................................... 27

Comparison Goods Spending Patterns in the West Northamptonshire Catchment Area .................................... 28

Convenience Goods Spending Patterns in the West Northamptonshire Catchment Area .................................. 44

Summary of current patterns of retail spending .................................................................................................. 51

6 QUANTITATIVE NEED FOR COMPARISON GOODS RETAIL FLOORSPACE ................................................ 53

Methodology ....................................................................................................................................................... 53

Step 1: Population and expenditure growth ........................................................................................................ 54

Step 2: Assessment of existing retail provision ................................................................................................... 54

Step 3: Claims on Expenditure Growth ............................................................................................................... 55

Step 4: Overtrading ............................................................................................................................................. 56

Step 5: Quantitative need .................................................................................................................................... 57

Step 6: Scenario Testing ..................................................................................................................................... 59

7 QUANTITATIVE NEED FOR CONVENIENCE GOODS FLOORSPACE ............................................................ 61

Methodology ....................................................................................................................................................... 61

Step 1: Population and expenditure growth ........................................................................................................ 61

Source: Table 1 and Table 3b, Appendix 1 ......................................................................................................... 61

Step 2: Assessment of existing retail provision ................................................................................................... 61

Step 3: Claims on Expenditure Growth ............................................................................................................... 62

Step 4: Overtrading ............................................................................................................................................. 62

Step 5: Quantitative need .................................................................................................................................... 63

8 QUALITATIVE NEED FOR RETAIL FLOORSPACE .......................................................................................... 65

Methodology ....................................................................................................................................................... 65

Gaps in Provision ................................................................................................................................................ 65

Consumer Choice and Competition .................................................................................................................... 68

Trading Performance .......................................................................................................................................... 70

Location Specific Needs ...................................................................................................................................... 71

Quality of Provision ............................................................................................................................................. 74

Summary ............................................................................................................................................................. 74

9 RECOMMENDATIONS ....................................................................................................................................... 77

Context ................................................................................................................................................................ 77

West Northamptonshire Retail Study Update | Volume 1 - Main Report

Final Report | February 2011 1

1 INTRODUCTION & STRUCTURE OF REPORT Terms of Reference

1.1 In March 2010 the West Northamptonshire Joint Planning Unit (WNJPU) commissioned Roger Tym & Partners (RTP) to undertake a retail study for the West Northamptonshire area. The study is intended to provide a key evidence base document underpinning the West Northamptonshire Joint Core Strategy (prepared jointly by Northampton Borough Council, South Northamptonshire Council and Daventry District Council).

1.2 This study is principally intended to build on the West Northamptonshire Retail Study 2008 to 2026, which was prepared by CACI Ltd for the WNJPU in March 2009. This study undertook a ‘gravity model’ approach to assessing the role and function of centres in West Northamptonshire. However, a key reason behind the requirement update to this study is to provide greater clarity on the quantum of additional convenience and comparison goods floorspace in the three local authorities to 2026.

1.3 The study brief sets out a requirement for the study to:

Update the quantitative floorspace capacity figures for West Northamptonshire, fully reflecting the requirements of the recent PPS4 and accompanying practice guidance and based on a realistic and robust set of market information and economic data;

Define a network of centres and assess the quantitative and qualitative need for additional floorspace, overtrading of existing facilities, and the ability of existing centres to serve the retail needs within the growth agenda;

To test the results of the retail capacity and centre hierarchy exercises against a range of population and economic growth scenarios, with results disaggregated to five-yearly reporting periods;

Provide recommendations on thresholds for impact assessments for edge and out-of-centre retail development;

Provide recommendations on a strategic policy approach to retail provision in rural areas; and

Complement and draw reference to the existing bank of retail evidence base for West Northamptonshire.

Structure of Study

1.4 The remainder of the report is structured as follows:

The remainder of Section 1 sets out further context for the study, reviewing the existing evidence base supporting the study, and the wider issues which directly impact on the findings of the study;

Section 2 outlines the requirements of the national policy context insofar as it relates to town centres and the location of new retail development, and provides a brief review of relevant regional and local planning policy contexts;

Section 3 reviews the existing network of town and district centres in West Northamptonshire, summarising their current performance and role in the local retail



hierarchy. A more detailed appraisal of the performance of each centre is also set out at Volume 2 of this report;

Section 4 sets out current and future population and expenditure in the study area; Section 5 details our assessment of the current patterns of retail spending in the

comparison and convenience sectors, based on the results of a household telephone survey undertaken to ascertain shopping patterns of residents in West Northamptonshire and surrounding areas;

Section 6 assesses the quantitative need for additional comparison goods floorspace in the period up to 2016, and then extrapolated forward to 2026, taking into account claims on expenditure growth and expenditure inflow into West Northamptonshire;

Section 7 repeats the exercise in Section 5 for convenience goods floorspace; Section 8 reviews the qualitative need for additional comparison and convenience

goods floorspace in West Northamptonshire; and finally Section 9 sets out our strategic recommendations for retail provision and the network of

centres in West Northamptonshire over the course of the study period to 2026.

1.5 This report forms Volume 1 to the study. The report should be read in conjunction with the three other volumes of the report, which are as follows:

Volume 2 presents a detailed performance assessment of each of the town and district centres in West Northamptonshire, based on criteria set out in Annex D of Planning Policy Statement 4. It also provides a framework for the JPU to monitor key indicators of town centre performance over the course of the study period.

Volume 3 sets out the detailed quantitative need tabulations for convenience and comparison goods, and maps the comparison goods market shares for each of the principal West Northamptonshire centres.

Volume 4 contains the detailed household survey results from NEMS Market Research.

Context Existing Evidence

1.6 The key existing locally (i.e. excluding regional level) available evidence base document on retail and town centre matters is the CACI West Northamptonshire Retail Study, prepared between March 2008 and March 2009. This study is intended as an update to this document, and therefore it is necessary to be mindful of its findings.

1.7 The CACI study provides a detailed piece of evidence. However the study adopts a ‘gravity model’ approach and therefore differs somewhat from ‘traditional’ retail assessments. The study identified ‘substantial inadequacies’ amongst existing town and district centres in West Northamptonshire, partly as a result of the strength of surrounding higher order centres (Milton Keynes’ influence over Northampton and Rugby’s influence over Daventry for example), but also related to the role of out-of-centre retail parks in the Northampton urban area. As a result, the study considers that the vitality and viability of the existing town centre network is presently suffering.



1.8 Prior to the CACI study a further retail study was undertaken by CB Richard Ellis, in support of the Northampton Central Area Development Framework. Although this did not cover the West Northamptonshire area in its entirety, many of the findings, particularly in respect of Northampton town centre and Borough, are of relevance.

1.9 In addition, RTP (on behalf of Northampton Borough Council) undertook a detailed ‘healthcheck’ exercise of Northampton town centre in 2009, to complement the Council’s existing retail evidence base and inform future site allocations. The work involved collecting data on the key vitality and viability indicators as set out in PPS6 (and now PPS4) from published sources, commercial property agents and survey work. We commissioned household and on-street surveys as well as undertaking pedestrian counts and site visits.

1.10 For South Northamptonshire, Chase & Partners have recently (February 2010) completed a standalone assessment of the retail needs of the District. No comparable study has been undertaken in Daventry. In addition there are emerging masterplans for Brackley and Towcester town centres, and the emerging Daventry Town Centre Development Plan Document (DPD) to take into consideration.

1.11 There is therefore a significant body of existing evidence from which the study draws and from which the outputs of this study can be checked and verified against.

Planned Housing Growth

1.12 The WNJPU consulted on the ‘Emergent Strategy’ version of the Joint Core Strategy (EJCS) between July and September 2009, thus after the finalisation of the CACI study. This document set out a preferred strategy for the locations of sustainable urban extensions in the main West Northamptonshire towns.

1.13 The Emergent Joint Core Strategy is superseded by the Pre Submission version of the West Northamptonshire Joint Core Strategy (JCS) which is due for consultation between Februrary and March 2011. The Pre Submission JCS shows a lower housing growth for West Northamptonshire to 2026 than is envisaged in the East Midlands Regional Plan. The Pre-Submission JCS is based on deliverability within the plan period to 2026 set against the downturn in housebuilding rates and with a gradual returning of market confidence within the plan period. This retail study is based upon the lower growth scenario for West Northamptonshire and the spatial distribution of strategic housing allocations as shown in the Pre-Submission JCS.

Downturn in the Economy

1.14 The economic downturn has been reflected in reduced housebuilding rates across the country, which has particular implications in areas of forecast high population growth such as West Northamptonshire, as the house-building trajectory is set back until confidence returns to the market. This means that population growth will be, in the short term at least, more muted than previously forecast, and this will have implications for the quantitative need for additional retail floorspace in the catchment area, and in particular the timing of when this need is likely to arise.

1.15 The downturn in the economy also affects consumer spending, with a greater reluctance to spend amongst consumer on non-essential goods. As a result, the forecast levels of



spending growth is significantly lower than two years’ ago, (as suggested in the CACI study of 2009) although there are early indications of an improvement in consumer confidence. The economic downturn has also resulted in investors being more cautious. Developers are looking to play competing centres against each other to secure the best deal for their outlet or scheme. Nationally, many planned large new retail developments have been suspended until the economy returns to stability. We are aware of schemes in Oxford, Nottingham, Sheffield, Bradford and Guildford being put on hold.

1.16 PPS4 states that assessment of need should be based on realistic inputs into forecasting, and accordingly this study takes into account the likely length of the downturn, based on the most up-to-date forecasts of population and expenditure growth.

Polarisation Trend in the UK

1.17 A significant and long term trend is the continuing polarisation by retailers towards larger schemes in larger centres which is driven by a number of factors. Retailers recognise that greater efficiency can be achieved by having a strategic network of large stores offering a full range, rather than having a large network of smaller stores, and are therefore increasingly seeking to serve larger population catchments from larger stores. It is also driven by consumers, who are becoming more discerning and are increasingly prepared to travel further.

1.18 There is therefore a concentration of comparison goods expenditure in a smaller number of larger centres. Indeed, CB Richard Ellis estimates that half the population currently shops in just 70 or so major locations, down from 200 locations 30 years ago1. This concentration of retailing in larger centres is likely to threaten some medium and smaller towns.

1.19 The growth of the dominant foodstores and decline in unit numbers poses similar challenges for small town centres and district/local centres which rely on their convenience/service base. A clear picture is emerging of a network of large dominant superstores, and corresponding decline/diversification in the traditional smaller centre. Again, CB Richard Ellis suggest that ‘half the population now shop for main groceries in less than 1,000 of the country’s 10,000+ main grocery stores: the majority located out-of-town’2.

1 Source: CB Richard Ellis, UK Retail Briefing, September 2008. 2 Source: CB Richard Ellis, UK Retail Briefing, Issue 2, 2007.



2 PLANNING POLICY PPS12: Local Spatial Planning (June 2008)

2.1 This study will form part of the evidence base upon which the WNJPU will draw in preparation of the Core Strategy for West Northamptonshire. The study will also form part of the evidence base of the constituent West Northamptonshire authorities’ evidence base for their respective Local Development Documents. Section 4 of the new PPS12 explains the intended nature of core strategies, gives advice on their preparation and introduces a new test of soundness.

2.2 PPS12 states that each core strategy must include an overall vision, strategic objectives for the area which focus on the key issues to be addressed; a delivery strategy for each of these objectives; and clear arrangements for managing and monitoring the delivery of the strategy.

2.3 PPS12 also stipulates that core strategies may allocate strategic sites for development, provided that they are considered central to the achievement of the strategy. The core strategy should also be supported by evidence of the physical, social and green infrastructure which is needed to enable the amount of development proposed for the area. Provision for certainty in delivery of proposals should be provided for.

2.4 Paragraph 4.54 of PPS12 introduces a new test of ‘soundness’ for core strategies. In order to be ‘sound’, a core strategy should be justified, effective and consistent with national policy.

2.5 ‘Justified’ means that the document must be ‘founded on a robust and credible evidence base’ and ‘the most appropriate strategy when considered against the reasonable alternatives’.

2.6 ‘Effective’ means that the document must be ‘deliverable’, ‘flexible’, and ‘able to be monitored’.

2.7 Thus, the PPS12 places more emphasis on the need for DPDs to:

‘…demonstrate that the plan is the most appropriate, when considered against reasonable alternatives’. (Paragraph 4.38 of PPS12, our emphasis); and

‘…show how the vision, objectives and strategy for the area will be delivered and by whom, and when.’ (Paragraph 4.45 of PPS12, our emphasis).

PPS4: Planning for Sustainable Economic Growth (December 2009)

2.8 Planning Policy Statement 4 (PPS4) forms the replacement to PPS6 which has been the benchmark guidance in respect of retail and town centres since 2005. The new PPS4 thus replaces PPS6, as well as the existing PPS4, PPS5, and parts of PPS7 and PPS13.

2.9 PPS4 sets out a series of objectives for planning in order to achieve sustainable economic growth this, including promoting the vitality and viability of town and other centres, as important places for communities. In order to do this, PPS4 seeks to:

focus new economic growth and development of main town centres within existing centres, in order to offer a wide range of facilities and address deficiencies;



promote competition between retailers and enhance consumer choice in town centres; and

conserve and where appropriate enhance the heritage of existing centres

2.10 The requirement for regional-level assessments of main town centres uses, as previously prescribed by PPS6, is retained. At the local level, the evidence base should be informed by regional assessments, and, in addition, assessments of need of the quantum of floorspace required for economic development; identify deficiencies in the provision of local convenience shopping; assess existing and future land supply for economic development; and assess the capacity of existing centres to accommodate new town centre development.

2.11 The PPS4 is split between ‘plan-making policies’, and ‘decision-making policies’, the latter set of which should be used for the assessment of planning applications and therefore are of less relevance to this study

2.12 Policy EC1 sets out the factors which local planning authorities should take into account when assessing the need for retail and leisure developments. Policy EC3 sets out a series of ten factors which regional and local planning authorities should take into account when setting out a strategy for their town centres. These include the need to:

set flexible policies for centres which can be readily adapted; define a network and hierarchy of centres which meets the needs of the catchment; define the extent of centres and primary shopping areas; consider setting floorspace thresholds for the scale of edge-of-centre or out-of-centre

development which should be the subject of an impact assessment; define any locally important impacts on centres which should be tested; encourage a diversity of uses in centres; identify sites or buildings suitable for development, conversion or change of use; and use necessary tools such as local development orders and area action plans to address

other issues associated with the growth and management of town centres.

2.13 Policy EC4 considers promoting consumer choice and competitive town centres and the means through which this should be promoted, including supporting the diversification of town centre uses; planning for a strong retail mix; recognising the role played by smaller shops; supporting shops and other facilities in local centres and villages; supporting (and where necessary creating) markets, and encouraging a range of evening and night-time uses.

2.14 Policy EC5 places a requirement on local planning authorities to identify an appropriate range of sites to accommodate the identified need for additional floorspace, ensuring that the sites are capable of accommodating a range of business models. This should be based on the following factors:

the identified need for the development; an appropriate scale of development, in keeping with the role and function of the centre; application of the sequential approach to site selection (with priority given to in-centre

sites, followed by well-connected edge-of-centre sites);



assessment of the impact of sites on existing centres; and consider the extent to which other considerations (such as physical regeneration

benefits) may be material.

2.15 Policy EC9 states that regional planning bodies and local planning authorities should, through their annual monitoring reports, keep the following matters under review, in order to inform consideration of the impact of policies and planning applications:

a) ‘the network and hierarchy of centres (at both the regional and local levels);

b) the need for further development; and

c) the vitality and viability of centres (at the local level)’

2.16 In order to measure the vitality and viability of town centres, Policy EC9 recommends that ‘local authorities should also regularly collect market information and economic data, preferably in co-operation with the private sector’ on the key indicators set out in Appendix D of the PPS3.

2.17 The PPS subsequently turns to ‘decision-making’ policies, and sets out two tests of impact which must be satisfied. These ‘strengthened’ impact tests reflect the fact that PPS4 no longer requires applications for development to provide justification of the qualitative or quantitative need Policy EC10 sets out criteria which must be satisfied for all economic development, whilst Policy EC16 specifically relates to applications for town centre development. Policy EC17 explicitly states that where the proposed development does not satisfy these criteria, the application should be refused.

East Midlands Regional Plan (March 2009)

2.18 The East Midlands Regional Plan (EMRP) in was adopted March 2009. The EMRP supersedes the preceding Regional Spatial Strategy for the East Midlands (RSS8). West Northamptonshire forms part of the Southern sub-area, and the RSS identifies Northampton as one of five ‘Principal Urban Areas’ in the East Midlands (alongside Derby, Leicester, Lincoln and Nottingham), which should be the main focus for new development in the Region. Daventry is identified as a second-tier ‘Sub-Regional’ centre; such towns should be the focus of ‘appropriate development of a lesser scale’. Towcester and Brackley are classed as Rural Service Centres.

2.19 Policy 11 of the EMRP outlines the priorities for development in the Southern Sub-Area, and states that ‘Northampton’s role and function as one of the Region’s five Principal Urban Areas should be strengthened by new public transport infrastructure and facilities’ , whilst the roles of Kettering and Wellingborough (in North Northamptonshire) and Daventry as a Sub-Regional Centre should also be strengthened. In addition, ‘the roles of the small towns in the Sub-area should be maintained through the retention of basic services and facilities,

3 These indicators form the basis of our assessment of the performance of the town and district centres in West Northamptonshire set out later in the document.



environmental improvements and the safeguarding of their rural hinterlands from encroachment by larger centres’.

2.20 Policy 22 states that local planning authorities and other partners should work to promote the vitality and viability of existing town centres. Local planning authorities should bring forward retail, office, residential and leisure development opportunities within town centres; prevent the development or expansion of regional-scale out-of-town retail and leisure floorspace; and monitor changes in retail floorspace on a regular basis.

2.21 In respect of the Southern Sub-Area, the supporting text to Policy 22 comments that ‘There is a large proportion of retail expenditure ‘leakage’ to the south of the Region from the Sub-area at present. This untapped spend and the level of proposed population growth in Northamptonshire means that Northampton town centre has the potential to become one of the Region’s highest performing retail attractions’. It is also stated that ‘Daventry and Towcester should also have enhanced roles at a more local level’.

Milton Keynes-South Midlands Sub Regional Strategy (March 2005)

2.22 Northamptonshire also falls within the area covered by the Milton Keynes-South Midlands Sub-Regional Strategy (MKSM SRS), which was adopted by the Secretary of State in March 2005. The SRS contains policies and proposals to guide the sustainable growth of the designated Growth Area, which is to receive a significant uplift in housing growth over the period to 2026 and beyond. Northamptonshire in its entirety is covered by the MKSM SRS.

2.23 The MKSM SRS ‘Part B’ statement, which covers growth in Northamptonshire, is set out in Section 4 of the EMRP. Paragraph 4.1.2 confirms that ‘in accordance with the spatial framework set out in Part A of the MKSM SRS, major areas of new development will be concentrated at Northampton (within the area which is defined as the Principal Urban Area) and at the neighbouring growth towns of Corby, Kettering and Wellingborough’. Paragraph 4.1.3 continues to state that ‘outside these towns smaller amounts of development will be located at the Sub-Regional Centre of Daventry and in other small towns within the county’, including the rural service centres of Towcester and Brackley.

2.24 Policy MKSM Northamptonshire 2 addresses the Northampton Implementation Area (NIA), which covers Northampton Borough and neighbouring parts of Daventry and South Northamptonshire Districts. The policy sets out housing growth targets for the NIA, and requires the development of a joint Local Development Document to investigate longer term growth options for the NIA. This LDD must, amongst its remits, ‘identify an appropriate number of existing and possible future District Centres (urban hubs) to form sustainable sub-centres for shopping and for the provision of commercial and social services, giving an emphasis to regeneration needs and opportunities for urban renaissance where relevant’.

2.25 Policy MKSM Northamptonshire 3 specifically addresses the regeneration of the Central Area of Northampton, and stipulates that a LDD will be developed to provide a long-term framework for the improvement of the Central Area, including ‘improving the range and quality of retail provision by increasing comparison and convenience floorspace, and linking this into a revitalisation of the rest of the central area’.



2.26 The SRS states that the Sub-Regional Centre of Daventry will ‘consolidate and extend its role by revitalising and extending the role of the town centre as a Sub-Regional centre offering improved shopping facilities and a wider range of jobs and services’ (paragraph 4.1.7). The Rural Service Centres, including Towcester and Brackley, ‘will seek to extend their roles in providing local services for their rural hinterlands…the centres of these towns should also be the focus for enhancement proposals and the maintenance of basic services’.

2.27 It is highlighted that a key consideration in Towcester is the need to regenerate its historic town centre, and ‘the sustainable growth of the town will help strengthen retail and essential services’.

The Localism Bill (December 2010)

2.28 The study also needs to be considered in the context of the Localism Bill, which was published on 13 December 2010. The Bill signals the Coalition Government's intention to empower local people by devolving greater powers to councils and neighbourhoods and giving local communities more control over planning decisions. The stated aim of the Bill is to ‘shift power from central government back into the hands of individuals, communities and councils’.

2.29 Of particular relevance to the study was the Government’s stated intention to abolish Regional Strategies by removing the primary legislation which sets the basis for them. A duty to co-operate will be imposed on local planning authorities, so as to ensure that strategic development continues to come forward in the absence of regional plans.

2.30 The Localism Bill is yet to pass through Parliament, and this is expected to take place during the second half of 2011. Therefore, for the time being at least, the East Midlands Regional Plan which was published in March 2009 – remains a component of the adopted development plan.

Northampton Central Area Action Plan

2.31 Northampton Borough Council is preparing a Central Area Action Plan for Northampton town centre, which sets out the policies for growth and regeneration of the Central Area of Northampton, including making provision for enhancement of the retail and leisure offer of Northampton. The Council published the Pre-Submission draft of the Central Area Action Plan for consultation in November 2010.



3 THE EXISTING NETWORK OF CENTRES Approach

3.1 In this section of the study we summarise the performance of the existing network of town and lower order centres in West Northamptonshire, which is as follows:

Regional & town centres • Northampton town centre • Brackley • Daventry • Towcester

Other centres within Northampton

• Far Cotton • Kettering Road • Kingsthorpe (District Centre) • St James End • Weston Favell (District Centre) • Wellingborough Road

3.2 The chapter should be read in conjunction with Volume 2 of the study, which presents a detailed appraisal of each of the centres listed above, set against a range of ‘performance indicators’, as set out at Annex D of PPS4. In this section we draw out the principal conclusions from Volume 2, and set these out alongside an assessment of whether each centre is adequately performing its current role in the hierarchy of centres.

3.3 Annex B PPS4 presents a useful summary of the expected role and function of the different levels of centre:

Town centres ‘will usually be the second level of centres after city centres and, in many cases, they will be the principal centre or centres in a local authority’s area. In rural areas they are likely to be market towns and other centres of similar size and role which function as important service centres, providing a range of facilities and services for extensive rural catchment areas’.

District centres ‘will usually comprise groups of shops often containing at least one supermarket or superstore and a range of non-retail services such as banks, building societies and restaurants, as well as local public facilities such as a library’

Local centres ‘include a range of small shops of a local nature, serving a small catchment. Typically, local centres might include, amongst other shops, a small supermarket, newsagent, a sub-post office and a pharmacy. Other facilities could include a hot food takeaway or laundrette. In rural areas, large villages may perform the role of a local centre’.

3.4 We have used these PPS4 definitions as the basis for assessing the role and function of each centre in the West Northamptonshire retail hierarchy, and where appropriate we draw conclusions on any potential change in the status of centres in the hierarchy.



Centres in Northampton Northampton town centre

3.5 In the case of Northampton town centre, the review in Volume 2 refreshes a detailed ‘healthcheck’ assessment undertaken by RTP on behalf of Northampton Borough Council4, which was published in October 2009. We have not sought to replicate this document (which is available within the public domain), but provide an updated assessment based on newly-published monitoring information and further field visits to the town centre in May 2010.

3.6 Northampton is the highest-order centre in West Northamptonshire, and presently sits at 43rd in MHE UK’s ‘UK Shopping Index5’, a position it shares with Peterborough. Other similarly ranked centres in the Index include Preston, Doncaster and Romford. Northampton is classed as a second-tier ‘Major Regional’ centre, alongside Leicester and Milton Keynes. Northampton’s position in the Index has remained relatively static, reflecting the limited retail development which has taken place in the town. Both the overall market position and fashion market position are ‘middle’, and whilst there is some limited representation from upper-middle retailers, 44 per cent of the fashion retailers in the town fall within the ‘middle’ order bracket. We consider this to be an accurate reflection of the current retail offer in Northampton, and one which is representative of its influence over West Northamptonshire. The retail offer is solid, but rooted firmly in the middle-market. This serves to limit the attractiveness of the centre beyond its immediate natural catchment, as opposed to centres such as Milton Keynes, which, by virtue of their higher order offer, draw trade from a much wider geographic area.

3.7 Northampton town centre therefore continues to perform solidly, albeit with clear potential for improvement. The strength of the retail offer at the town’s retail parks continues to provide strong competition for spending. Our visits to the centre found some positive examples of recent investment in the centre, with new high-end retailers such as Superdry (clothing) and Prezzo (restaurant) commencing trading, and other retailers upscaling to larger premises in the centre. We also note that the vacancy rate in the town centre has decreased since the RTP Healthcheck work in 2009, although it is still above the UK average, and the quality of the retailers which have occupied the vacant units is, in most cases, poor. Some large vacant units, most notably the former Woolworths store on Abington Street West continue to remain unoccupied. However, a number of the vacancies have arisen in recent months as a result of retailers already present in the centre locating to newer premises in the centre. Examples of retailers who have moved include T-Mobile

4 Roger Tym and Partners for Northampton Borough Council, ‘Northampton Town Centre Healthcheck’, October 2009. 5 The Index ranks the performance of all major retail centres in the UK, and as such offers a benchmark with which to compare the performance of a number of centres. Centres are ranked in one of nine location grades, reflecting the level of retail provision ranging from ‘Major City’ to ‘Minor Local’. The MHE Index also ranks centres in respect of their fashion retail offer. The ‘fashion market position’ ranges from ‘Luxury’ through to ‘Value’5. As a general rule, higher order centres have a broader range of fashion offer and therefore fall within the ‘Middle’ or ‘Upper-Middle’ categories, whilst smaller centres’ fashion retail offer is concentrated towards the ‘lower’ and ‘value’ end; as such retailers typically locate in a larger number of centres.



(from the Grosvenor Centre to a larger store on Abingdon Street), Jones Bootmakers (from St Giles Street to the Grosvenor Centre) and La Senza (from Abington Street to the Grosvenor Centre). In each case, the retailer has moved to larger, more prominent premises, and this can be considered a positive reflection of the confidence of the retailers in the centre.

3.8 There is moderate demand from retailers seeking trading space in Northampton, and a significant number of the active requirements are solely for out-of-centre floorspace. Retailers seeking town centre space are typically middle to lower-order retailers. There are currently active requirements from department store chain TJ Hughes, clothing retailers Peacocks, Profile and Select, and shoes retailers tReds and Varanni.

3.9 Pedestrian flow patterns in the centre remain largely unchanged from our previous healthcheck work, with the strongest flows in Abington Street West in the vicinity of Marks and Spencer, and strong flows also on Abington Street East and in the Grosvenor Centre (ground floor). Peacock Place presents something of a cause for concern, as despite being a key link between Abington Street and the Grosvenor Centre, pedestrian flows are virtually non-existent, and the number of vacant units has increased.

3.10 Although maintained to an acceptable standard, Northampton town centre continues to look tired. The shopfronts and façades throughout the town are slightly run down, with the notable exceptions of Fish Street and Marefair. St Giles Street also benefits from strong environmental quality. The improvements to pedestrian footpaths undertaken on Marefair have been extended to include Gold Street, and the quality of the environment of this area of the town centre has consequently improved significantly.

3.11 Northampton is currently performing its role as the highest order centre in the West Northamptonshire area satisfactorily. The centre performs well against many of the PPS4 indicators, and it is positive to report that both demand for premises, and retailer investment in the centre, remains strong. However there is a need, over the course of the study period, for Northampton to deliver a step-change in its performance and attractiveness as a higher-order comparison shopping destination. It is anticipated that the emerging proposals for the redevelopment and extension of the Grosvenor Centre in the town centre will have an important role to play in this respect.

Weston Favell District Centre

3.12 Weston Favell centre is presently ranked at 477th – therefore the centre has the second highest ranking of any West Northamptonshire centre. In common with Daventry, Weston Favell is classed by MHE as a fifth-tier ‘District’-level centre. This is in part a reflection of the fact that the majority of retailers at Weston Favell are national multiple retailers, which attract a greater weighting in the MHE Index6. The centre is a popular retail destination for residents in Northampton, and presently appears to be exhibiting strong signs of vitality and

6 The methodology of the MHE Index is such that the presence of multiple retailers in a town centre improves a centre’s position in the Index.



viability, with evidence of operator demand, strong pedestrian flows and retailer turnover, and a low vacancy rate.

3.13 Upwards of 80 per cent of the occupied units in the centre (based on GOAD data) are occupied by multiple retailers. The main convenience anchor is the 8,600 sq.m gross Tesco Extra foodstore, which in addition to providing an extensive food offer, also offers a large range of non-food items, plus a pharmacy, opticians and photo processing. The centre also offers a Lidl foodstore and Oliver Adams bakery.

3.14 The largest comparison goods retailers are Focus DIY (2,940 sq.m gross) and Wilkinson’s (1,890 sq.m gross). Other notable comparison goods retailers present include WH Smith, Boots, Superdrug, JD and Gamestation. There is a reasonable clothing offer, however it is limited to lower-middle end retailers such as New Look, QS, Dorothy Perkins, Burton and Peacocks. Such retailers do not, as a rule, trade from district centres, but centres of town centre order or above, as they rely on a wider catchment area than retailers trading from a district centre require.

3.15 Indeed, Weston Favell’s nature as a purpose-built district centre based on an enclosed mall environment sets it apart from other lower order centres in Northampton. The nature of the retail offer, and, as set out in Section 5, the trade draw which the centre attracts from its surrounding catchment area, suggests that Weston Favell in fact performs a role more akin to a town centre, as it serves a catchment which extends beyond its immediate hinterland, covering much of the eastern side of Northampton.

Kingsthorpe District Centre

3.16 Kingsthorpe is one of the larger centres in Northampton with a total of 57 units. The centre is anchored by two large foodstores to the south of the centre, an Asda and a Waitrose, and also contains strong representation from comparison and service goods retailers, including the presence of a number of national multiple retailers including Timpson, Boots, Alliance Pharmacy, Dolland & Aitchison opticians, plus four travel agents, four banks and one building society. The centre can be considered to perform a satisfactory role in meeting local shopping needs therefore, although there is no GP surgery or library within the centre.

3.17 Kingsthorpe offers a range of more modern, purpose-built retail accommodation than is typically found in many District centres. To the south of the District centre, the Kingsthorpe Centre development on the western side of Harborough Road, which was constructed in the mid 1970s, has benefited from recent modernisation and offers larger, purpose-built units which are anchored by a 1,860 sq.m (gross) Waitrose store. The units at the junction of Welford Road and Harborough Road also more modern retail accommodation, however further north in the Centre along the size of the units become smaller and the quality of the floorspace reduces. Vacancy rates in the centre are low, and pedestrian flows are generally strong throughout, but particularly in the vicinity of the anchor foodstores. It can be summarised that Kingsthorpe suffers from generally strong vitality and viability, and it is considered its classification as a district centre is appropriate.

Far Cotton

3.18 Far Cotton is a small linear centre, which predominantly runs along St Leonard’s Road. The centre is anchored by a Netto foodstore, and there is also a small Co-operative foodstore



present in the centre. The retail units are mostly small, older premises with the exception of a Sofa King unit which is a large purpose built retail warehouse. The retail units occupy the ground floor of old terraced buildings, typically with residential or storage on the upper floors.

3.19 Many of the shop frontages appear dated and tired and could do with modernisation, and there was evidence of litter and graffiti, particularly to the eastern end of the centre at the time of our visit to the centre. Whilst the centre lacks a number of key facilities, including a pharmacy, post office and library, there are a large number of retail and services outlets, including several small-scale convenience retailers, a limited number of comparison retailers (including a florist, opticians, toy shops and sports shops) and a strong array of services retailers, including take-aways, a Nationwide building society, hairdressers and laundrette. Far Cotton functions adequately as a local centre, although would benefit from improvements to the quality of the environment in the centre.

Kingsley Park Terrace (Kettering Road)

3.20 Kettering Road centre is a parade of retail units on Kingsley Park Terrace, and is a vibrant and attractive centre, attracting a strong retail mix and evidence of recent investment. Kingsley Park also includes services such as a post office, two chemists, and branches of Lloyds TSB and Nationwide Building Society.

3.21 There is presence from multiple retailers, including Co-Operative and a recently-opened Tesco Express foodstore, as well as two branches of Oliver Adams bakery.

St James End

3.22 St James End is a mostly linear centre to the immediate west of Northampton town centre. The majority of the retail offer is contained in small units on the ground floor of terraced properties, although this is juxtaposed with newer purpose-built retail premises such as the Aldi and Iceland foodstores which anchor the centre, and the Saints Superstore, which is a converted public house. There is also a range of comparison and services retailers.

3.23 The centre is looking quite tired and improvements could be made to the environment to make it a more pleasant shopping area. Some of the shop fronts in the centre are not very well maintained and look run down, especially the vacant units.

3.24 The centre scores poorly on the provision of basic local services to meet the needs of residents – whilst there are two (fairly moderate) foodstores and a post office, other facilities such as a health centre, pharmacy, opticians, dentist and library are absent. In total there are 26 units in the centre. The vacancy rate in the centre is above average at present.

Wellingborough Road

3.25 Wellingborough Road is a linear centre stretching eastwards away from Northampton town centre. In common with many of the centres in the town, the units predominantly occupy the ground floor of terraced properties. The centre is amongst the largest (Experian Goad identify a total of 147 units in the centre), and there is a range of convenience stores (including Tesco Express and Sainsbury’s Local stores) and comparison goods (including a number of clothing stores, a chemist, and a florist). There are branches of Lloyds TSB and



Barclays Bank, and a large number of other services uses such as take-aways, hairdressers and estate agents. The centre lacks a number of complementary facilities such as a GP surgery and library. There is also no foodstore in the centre capable of meeting more than ‘top up’ shopping purchases.

Daventry town centre 3.26 Daventry appears to be a vital and viable retail centre. The town is well placed within the

UK Retail Rankings, and diversity of uses within the centre is in line with UK averages, with few gaps in the qualitative range of convenience or comparison goods. There is representation from a wide range of convenience, comparison and services national multiple retailers in Daventry.

3.27 The convenience offer includes three supermarket operators – Tesco, Waitrose and Aldi – as well as Greggs, Thorntons, and regional bakery group Oliver Adams. The comparison offer includes Clarks, New Look, Bon Marche, Dorothy Perkins, Boots, Superdrug and Argos. National service multiple retailers present in Daventry include a number of travel agents and banks/building societies, although we note there is little representation from national restaurant operators in the town. The retail offer is relatively ‘safe’ however, with little to distinguish the town from any of the surrounding (larger) centres such as Banbury, Rugby and Leamington Spa. This is reflected in MHE’s ‘UK Shopping Index’ which identifies the centre as having a ‘lower’-end fashion market position, suggesting a concentration of poorer quality, downmarket fashion outlets is prevalent. There will be a need for Daventry to diversify and upscale its retail offer throughout the course of the study period in order for the town to effectively serve an expanded residential population and prevent significant loss of trade to larger nearby centres.

3.28 The presence of two strongly-performing foodstores within the town centre (Waitrose and Tesco) aids the vitality and viability of the centre as a whole. At the time of our visit to the centre there were just nine vacant units, with two of these were under renovation.

3.29 Retailer demand for Daventry is relatively limited and is largely restricted to middle/lower-order retailers such as Holland & Barrett and The Body Shop. However the nature of many of the requirements is such that they could be readily accommodated should suitable premises arise in the centre.

3.30 Daventry town centre is reasonably well maintained and clean and has a pleasant environment. There is not much air pollution and noise from traffic in the centre as most of it is pedestrianised with the exception of the High Street (except on Market days). This contributes to the pleasant shopping environment. A negative aspect of the town centre environmental quality is the condition of some shop frontages and buildings. Some of them appear dated and would benefit from renewal.

South Northamptonshire town centres 3.31 In this section we draw reference to the recent ‘healthcheck’ assessments undertaken in

the South Northamptonshire centres of Brackley and Towcester by Chase & Partners’ ‘South Northamptonshire Retail Study’ (published February 2010), the findings of which we supplements with our own assessment following site visits to each centre in May 2010.



Brackley Town Centre

3.32 It is evident that Brackley performs a much more localised role in the West Northamptonshire retail hierarchy compared to Daventry. The offer in the centre is very heavily orientated towards the service sector, which accounts for almost 60 per cent of units in the centre, nearly double the UK average. Consequently convenience, and most particularly comparison goods representation, is poorly represented. Chase & Partners comment that ‘the proportion of comparison goods is below average but…this is consistent with the national trend for major comparison goods shopping to locate in the larger centres’. We concur that the ‘polarisation’ effect of many larger comparison retail operators to larger centres (as discussed in Section 1) must be taken into account, however a shortfall of the nature apparent in Brackley can still be considered cause for concern.

3.33 There has been relatively little change in the retail mix in the centre since the C&P study, although the number of vacant units has reduced by one. The vacancy rate remains above the UK average. The centre appears to be performing its function as a rural service centre adequately but greater diversification of the offer of the town would enhance its vitality and viability. We do not anticipate any significant change to the role and function of Brackley throughout the study period.

Towcester Town Centre

3.34 Towcester performs a similar role and function to Brackley, but has the advantage of having a more balanced retail mix. As with Brackley the service sector accounts for the majority of units in the centre, with 55 per cent of units in the centre in use for this means. The vacancy rate in the centre is 7.0 per cent below the UK average, suggesting the centre has managed to withstand the economic downturn to a large extent.

3.35 There is limited operator demand for trading space in Towcester, which is to be expected given the localised function of the town. The centre is attractive, and offers a mix of traditional and more modern retail premises, although the modern floorspace is relatively limited in size which may restrict demand. The centre experiences moderate pedestrian footfall, although it is considered that there is potential for improvement in this respect through the enhancement of linkages between the Waitrose store to the south of the town centre, and the rest of the retail activity in the centre.

3.36 As with Brackley, we do not anticipate that there will be any significant change to the role and function of Towcester in the West Northamptonshire retail hierarchy over the course of the study period, and the focus will remain on meeting the day to day needs of residents of the town and its wider rural hinterland.

Summary and recommendations on the network of centres 3.37 Having considered the role, function and performance of each of the principal centres in

West Northamptonshire, we set out below our recommended hierarchy of centres for the West Northamptonshire. The following points should be taken into account.

Northampton town centre clearly remains the highest order centre in West Northamptonshire, although there may be merit in re-terming Northampton as a



‘regional town centre’, rather than emerging Joint Core Strategy’s identification of Northampton as a ‘city centre’;

Daventry is the second largest town centre, and performs a clear role and function as a sub-regional shopping destination for residents west of Northampton;

Brackley and Towcester are smaller centres but nevertheless play important role in meeting convenience and services needs of their respective hinterlands, and on this basis should be considered as third-tier town centres;

Within Northampton, Weston Favell and Kingsthorpe both successfully perform clear roles as district centres, with good convenience and comparison shopping and supporting services and facilities;

There are also a range of smaller centres which have a more limited role and function but nevertheless do meet a number of day-to-day requirements of local residents. It is considered that the centres of Far Cotton, Kingsley Park, St James End and Wellingborough Road fall in this category, and it is recommended that for the purposes of a centre hierarchy these centres are classed as ‘local’ centres.

Table 3.1 — Recommended changes to the retail hierarchy in West Northamptonshire

Centre hierarchy level Recommended centres

Regional Town centre Northampton

Sub Regional Town Centre Town centre

Daventry Brackley Towcester

District centre Kingsthorpe, Northampton Weston Favell, Northampton

Local centre Far Cotton, Northampton Kingsley Park, Northampton St James End, Northampton Wellingborough Road, Northampton



4 CURRENT AND FUTURE STUDY AREA SPENDING Study Area Definition

4.1 The West Northamptonshire Study Area (SA) which forms the basis of our assessment is shown at Figure 4.1 below. The catchment area is sub-divided into 19 survey zones, which have largely been based on postcode sector boundaries, and are designed to reflect both the draw of Northampton as a regional shopping destination, as well as assessing the role the market towns of Daventry, Towcester and Brackley play in serving their respective rural hinterlands.

4.2 As can be seen from Figure 4.1 the SA centres on the regional centre of Northampton, extending westwards as far as Daventry and to the east of Banbury; southwards to Brackley and Buckingham; south-east to the edge of Milton Keynes and Bedford; eastwards towards Thrapston and Raunds, and northwards as far as (but not including) Corby. Major population (and thus retail) centres contained within the SA are Northampton, Daventry, Towcester, Brackley, Buckingham, Wellingborough, Rushden, Kettering and Market Harborough.

4.3 It is important to note therefore that the SA boundaries extend beyond the administrative boundaries of West Northamptonshire. These 19 zones form the basis of the household telephone survey which has been undertaken to inform the current shopping patterns in the OCA. However, our assessment of shopping patterns and quantitative and qualitative need will focus solely on the zones within the SA which form a proxy to the West Northamptonshire administrative area.

4.4 The survey zones include the administrative boundaries of Northampton Borough, Daventry District, and South Northamptonshire, and extend into the administrative boundaries of the neighbouring districts of Harborough, Cherwell, Aylesbury Vale, Milton Keynes and Bedford. The OCA also extends significantly into the North Northamptonshire area, encompassing the administrative areas of Kettering Borough and Wellingborough in their entirety, as well as parts of East Northamptonshire.

4.5 For reference, we have labelled the zones as set out in Table 4.2 below. The 19 zones have been divided between the ‘West Northamptonshire Catchment Area’ (WNCA), which consists of those zones which broadly reflect to the West Northamptonshire administrative area (Zones 1-11), and the ‘Outer Catchment Area’ (OCA) which is those parts of the catchment area outside West Northamptonshire (Zones A-H). Within the WNCA, the Northampton urban area is disaggregated into four zones (Zones 4 to 7 inclusive) given the denser population of this area compared to the rest of the catchment area.



Figure 4.1 — West Northamptonshire Study Area



Table 4.2 — Zones in the Study Area Zone Zone name Main centre(s) Predominant administrative area

(based on population) West Northamptonshire Catchment Area (WNCA)

1 Market Harborough Market Harborough Harborough District

2 West of Northampton - Daventry District 3 North of Northampton - Wellingborough

4 Northampton West Dallington Northampton Borough

5 Northampton Central & North Northampton town centre; Kingsthorpe

Northampton Borough

6 Northampton East & Weston Favell

Weston Favell Northampton Borough

7 Northampton South - Northampton Borough

8 Daventry Daventry Daventry District

9 Towcester Towcester South Northamptonshire

10 South of Northampton - South Northamptonshire

11 Brackley & Buckingham Brackley; Buckingham South Northamptonshire

Outer Catchment Area (OCA)

A Rothwell & Desborough Desborough; Rothwell Kettering Borough

B Kettering hinterland Burton Latimer Kettering Borough

C Kettering town Kettering Kettering Borough D Thrapston Thrapston East Northamptonshire

E Wellingborough Wellingborough Wellingborough

F Rushden & Raunds Rushden; Raunds East Northamptonshire

G South of Wellingborough Irchester Wellingborough

H Newport Pagnell & Olney Newport Pagnell; Olney Milton Keynes Borough

Existing and future population of the Study Area 4.6 The population in the 2010 base year for each of the 19 zones which together make up the

West Northamptonshire catchment area is set out in Table 1 of Appendix 1, Volume 3 to the study7. These population figures are based on 2008 zonal population figures supplied by MapInfo and rolled forward to 2010, using the following sources:

For zones in West Northamptonshire, we have used District-based population forecasts supplied by the WNJPU;

For zones in North Northamptonshire, we have used forecasts supplied by the North Northamptonshire Joint Planning Unit;

Zone 1 (Harborough District) used East Midlands Regional Assembly Regional Spatial Strategy population forecasts;

Zone H (Milton Keynes Borough) uses projections for Rural Milton Keynes Borough supplied by the Milton Keynes Observatory;

4.7 The population in the SA is 688,528 persons in 2008, and, based on the growth assumptions discussed above, this increases to 704,258 persons in the base year of 2010.

7 All references to appendices in this section refer to those contained within Volume 3.



4.8 The same sources have been used to project population for each of the survey zones forward to 2026, by deriving the District-wide population growth rates from the above sources and applying them to the base year zonal population figures. The zonal boundaries do not directly correlate with the administrative boundaries of each District, and therefore in cases where there is boundary overlap, the growth rate applied to the zone is for the administrative authority which covers the main population centres in that District. A schedule of which growth rates have been applied to each zone is shown at Table 4.2.

4.9 At the time of preparation of the study, future housing targets for the WNJPU are under review owing to the decision by government to abolish the housing targets set out in the East Midlands Regional Plan. The WNJPU have produced their own range of revised population forecasts; we have adopted these figures produced by the WNJPU8 as the basis for calculating population growth over the period to 2026.

4.10 For the zones in and around Northampton we have adopted a different approach which distributes the population growth forecast in accordance with the locations of the proposed sustainable urban extensions to Northampton as shown in the Pre Submission JCS. , By 2026 the population of the SA is expected to increase to 786,902 persons, representing an increase of 98,374 persons from 2007, equivalent to a 14.0 per cent uplift in population. Table 4.3 summarises the expected population growth in the SA over the period to 2026.

Table 4.3 — Population growth in SA, 2008-26 Year Population of OCA Growth from 2008 2008^ 688,528 - 2010* 704,258 +15,730 2016* 731,015 +42,487 2021* 758,585 +70,057 2026* 786,902 +98,374

Source: Table 1, Appendix 1. ^actual *estimate

Expenditure Data Inputs 4.11 This section of the report now progresses to consider the inputs into forecasting

expenditure growth across the SA over the study period to 2026.

4.12 Reflecting the requirements of the study brief, we forecast expenditure growth in the catchment area over the period to 2026. We advise that longer-term forecasts, particularly post-2021, should be treated as indicative and subject to regular review. The base year of the study is 2010, and expenditure growth (and subsequently quantitative need) is projected for the following interval periods:

2010-2016; 2016-2021; and 2021-2026

8 WNJPU ‘Dwellings C 2008’ Model, Variant 3, October 2010



National Trends in Expenditure

4.13 The forecasters anticipate muted short-term growth prospects, as the collapse in investment since autumn 2007 and the need to restore government finances significantly constrain economic growth and consumer spending. Recent rises in unemployment are expected to impact upon consumption growth in the short and medium term periods. Along with tighter lending conditions, higher unemployment is forecast to be a legacy of the current recession. The forecasters therefore expect that the boom conditions of the past decade are unlikely to be repeated in the short to medium term as consumers tighten their purses as a result of the global recession and correction in the housing market.

4.14 Consequently the most recent expenditure growth rates forecast by Experian in August 2010 and Pitney Bowes Business Insight/Oxford Economics (PBBI/OE) in September 2010 are relatively low for the next few years. Over the medium and long term periods, however, there is more uncertainty – for example PBBI/OE anticipate a much faster recovery in comparison goods expenditure growth than Experian, but PBBI/OE’s convenience forecast over the medium term is demonstrably more conservative than suggested by Experian.

4.15 Owing to the uncertainties of the data providers, the per capita comparison and convenience goods expenditure growth rates that we have adopted for the twelve year period from 2008 to 2020 are the midpoints of the estimates and forecasts provided by Experian and PBBI/OE. Whilst Experian’s forecasts for growth in per capita expenditure extend up to 2027, PBBI/OE does not provide any forecasts for growth in per capita expenditure beyond 2020. We have therefore adopted the Experian forecasts for the period 2020 to 2026 of 2.9 per cent per capita per annum for comparison goods and 0.9 per cent per capita per annum for convenience goods for 2020 onwards.

Comparison Spending in the West Northamptonshire Catchment Area 4.16 In this section the total available expenditure available to residents in the WNCA for

spending on comparison goods is established. We initially set out the available expenditure in the 2010 base year, and then project the expenditure growth forward through the study period to 2026.

4.17 Our analysis focuses solely on those zones which comprise the West Northamptonshire Catchment Area, i.e. Zones 1 to 11 as shown at Figure 4.1 above.

Stage 1 –Baseline Per Capita Expenditure Data

4.18 Per capita expenditure for comparison goods is set out at Table 2a of Appendix 1. This data is again set out by zone, and is supplied by MapInfo for the year 2008. It shows that per capita comparison goods spending in the WNCA in 2008 ranges from £2,817 in Zone 8 (Northampton East) to £3,433 in Zone 11 (Brackley & Buckingham). Across the WNCA, the average per capita comparison goods spend was £3,163 in the 2008 baseline year.

Stage 2 - Project per Capita Data to Forecast Years

4.19 As noted above we have adopted a midpoint approach to forecasting comparison goods expenditure growth over the study period. These are as follows:

2008-2010: 0.42 per cent, per annum



2010-2016: 3.34 per cent, per annum 2016-2021: 3.30 per cent, per annum 2021-2026: 3.25 per cent, per annum

Stage 3 - Calculate Total Spending in Base and Forecast Years

4.20 Tables 3a and 3b of Appendix 1 progress to calculate the overall ‘pot’ of available expenditure by multiplying the zonal populations set out in Table 1 to the per capita expenditure set out in Table 2. Thus it can be seen that, in the 2010 base year, there is a total of £1,298.91m available within the WNCA (final column, Table 3a) to support comparison goods spending, which increases to £1,624.03m by 2016, and £2,407.95m by 2026.

Stage 4 - Deductions for Special Forms of Trading

4.21 At this stage it is also considered appropriate to make allowance for one of the ‘claims’ on the total ‘pot’ of available expenditure, which is the proportion of expenditure which is diverted towards ‘special forms of trading’ such as online shopping. In excluding SFT, we have relied on advice set out in Experian’s Retail Planner Briefing Note 8.1 (August 2010), which advises that SFT is likely to account for the following shares of total retailing over the period to 2026 (Table 4.4). It can be seen that SFT is expected to peak at 2016, and then marginally reduce by 0.6per cent over the remainder of the study period to 2026.

Table 4.4 — Special forms of trading discounts to 2026 (comparison goods) Reporting year Comparison SFT Discount 2010 11.7% 2016 13.9% 2021 13.6% 2026 13.3%

Source: Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 8.1, August 2010, page 17

Stage 5 – Residual Spending Growth

4.22 Having allowed for the SFT discounts, it can be seen that the total ‘pot’ of comparison goods expenditure available to residents of the WNCA is reduced to £1,146.94m in the 2010 base year, which increases to £1,398.29m by 2016, and £2,087.69m by 2026. The bottom two lines of Table 3a show the growth in available expenditure over the study period, and indicate that the OCA will see growth of £251.35m in comparison expenditure between 2010 and 2016, and an increase of £940.75m between 2010 and 2026, once an allowance for SFT has been made. These figures relate solely to the expenditure growth in the WNCA, and do not take into account expenditure growth in the outer catchment area, some of which will also be directed towards centres and stores within West Northamptonshire.

4.23 The increase in comparison goods expenditure, taking into account SFT, across the WNCA to 2026 is summarised at Table 4.5.



Table 4.5 — Comparison goods expenditure in WNCA, 2010-26 Year Comparison expenditure

available in WNCA 2010 £1,146.94m 2016 £1,328.29m 2021 £1,712.31m 2026 £2,087.69m Growth 2010-2016 +£251.35m Growth 2010-2026 +£940.75m

Source: Table 3a, Appendix 1

Convenience Spending in the West Northamptonshire Catchment Area 4.24 Having considered the expenditure growth in the comparison sector, we now progress to

consider current and forecast expenditure growth in the convenience sector. Again, the figures set out below refer solely to expenditure growth within the West Northamptonshire Catchment Area (WNCA).

Stage 1 – Baseline Per Capita Expenditure Data

4.25 Per capita expenditure for convenience goods is set out at Table 2b of Appendix 1. This data is again set out by zone, and is supplied by MapInfo for the year 2008. It shows that per capita convenience goods spending in the WNCA in 2008 ranges from £1,730 in Zone 6 (Northampton East) to £1,961 in Zone 8 (Daventry). Across the WNCA, the average per capita convenience goods spend is £1,867.

Stage 2 - Project per Capita Data to Forecast Years

4.26 The approach to forecasting convenience goods expenditure reflects that of comparison goods, as set out above (i.e. taking a midpoint approach between the two principal growth forecasts). This allows for the following convenience goods expenditure growth rates to be utilized:

2008-2010: -1.31per cent, per annum 2010-2016: 0.56per cent, per annum 2016-2021: 0.65 per cent, per annum 2021-2026: 0.65 per cent, per annum

Stage 3 - Calculate Total Spending in Base and Forecast Years

4.27 Multiplying the zonal populations shown in Table 1 of Appendix 1 to the corresponding per capita expenditure data shown in Table 2b produces the total ‘pot’ of expenditure available to residents of the WNCA. The results of this exercise are shown in Table 3b, and it can be seen that in 2010 there is a total of £738.60m available for comparison goods spending (final column, Table 3b). This increases to £784.02m by 2016, and to £898.46m by 2026.

Stage 4 - Deductions for Special Forms of Trading

4.28 It is also necessary to allow for a deduction in special forms of trading of convenience goods. Whereas comparison goods SFT is predicted to peak during the middle of the study period (Table 4.4), Experian forecast that SFT in respect of convenience goods will continue to increase throughout the study period, rising from 7.4 per cent in 2010 to 10.7



per cent by 2026. Convenience goods SFT includes store-based online shopping (that is, when a customer places an order online, and the stock is taken from the shelves of that retailer’s nearest large branch). RTP consider it appropriate to halve the Experian SFT figure to take into account the fact that three of the main online grocery retailers (Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Asda) operate this store-based approach. The adjusted SFT discounts applied are set out at Table 4.6.

Table 4.6 — Special forms of trading discounts to 2026 (convenience goods) Reporting year Convenience SFT Discount 2010 3.7% 2016 4.8% 2021 5.05% 2026 5.35%

Source: Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 8.1, August 2010, page 17 (+50% additional discount)

Stage 5 – Residual Spending Growth

4.29 Having taken into account SFT discounts, the total ‘pot’ of convenience goods expenditure available to residents of the WNCA is £711.27m in the 2010 base year, increasing to £746.39m by 2016, and £850.39m by 2026. This represents growth in spending of £35.12m between 2010 and 2016, and £139.13m between 2010 and 2026, as summarised in Table 4.7 below. Therefore it can be seen that growth in convenience goods expenditure is considerably more limited than comparison goods.

Table 4.7 — Convenience goods expenditure in WNCA, 2010-26 Reporting year Convenience expenditure

available in WNCA 2010 £711.27m 2016 £746.39m 2021 £797.66m 2026 £850.39m Growth 2010-2016 +£35.12m Growth 2010-2026 +£139.13m

Source: Table 3b, Appendix 1



5 CURRENT PATTERNS OF RETAIL SPENDING Household Survey Methodology

5.1 Our assessment of current patterns of retail spending in West Northamptonshire is based on a telephone survey of 1,900 households across the WNCA and OCA which were undertaken by NEMS Market Research between 29th March and 16th April, 2010. The study area boundary is shown in Figure 4.1.For the purposes of the survey, and the subsequent analysis, the study area is divided into 19 survey zones; 100 interviews were conducted in each zone.

5.2 To allow for effective comparison with previous studies undertaken in West Northamptonshire (in order to establish whether there have been any changes in market shares of particular centres, for example), we have endeavoured to use, where possible, the same study zones as used by CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) in their Retail and Leisure Capacity Study (January 2007), which was produced to inform the Northampton Central Area Development Framework.

5.3 The survey zones used by RTP do however in some cases differ slightly from CBRE’s, in respect of the boundaries of zones to the west of Northampton and south/east of Wellingborough. In addition, because the CBRE study did not include the South Northamptonshire area, we add a further survey zone, which covers the centres of Brackley and Buckingham.

5.4 Respondents were contacted at a variety of times (during the day, in the evening and at the weekend), and all respondents were verified to be the main shopper in the household. The number of interviews conducted in each of the 19 zones was weighted according to population base. The NEMS report attached separately to this study (as Volume 4) contains the household survey data in full and also contains full explanation of the statistical reliability of the survey sample.

5.5 The survey questionnaire sought to establish the following:

5.6 patterns of convenience goods spending, based on:

▫ the shop where the household spends most money on food and groceries, and the amount spent per week (Questions 1, 2 and 5);

▫ the shop where the household undertakes most ‘top-up’ food and groceries purchases, and the amount spent per week (Questions 7 to 9);

▫ spending on food and groceries in small shops, for those who named supermarkets in answer to the above two questions (Questions 10 to 12);

for main food shopping, the reasons why residents chose to undertake their main food shop at the store specified (Question 3), and whether the trip was linked with visits to other shops, leisure or service outlets (Question 4) were also asked.

patterns of comparison goods spending, based on the locations of the last two purchases of:



▫ clothes and shoes (Questions 14 and 15), and the reasons for choosing this location (Question 16);

▫ furniture, carpets and soft household furnishings (Questions 17 and 18); ▫ DIY and decorating goods (Questions 19 and 20); ▫ Electrical items (e.g. TVs, DVD players, MP3 players, mobile phones) or domestic

appliances (e.g. washing machines, fridges) (Questions 21 and 22); ▫ Health & beauty or chemist items (Questions 23 and 24); ▫ Recreational goods (e.g. sports equipment, bicycles, toys) (Questions 25 and 26); ▫ Other non-food items (e.g. books, CDs, jewellery) (Questions 27 and 28)

the proportion of the household’s spending on food (Question 13) and non-food goods (Questions 29 to 36) that is accounted for by online shopping.

5.7 The composite pattern of spending for convenience goods was achieved on the basis of the mean weekly household spend findings, as set out at Table 5.1.

Table 5.1 — Mean household spend on convenience goods Convenience goods spend Mean household spend per

week Percentage weighting

Main food and groceries £75.50 80.29% Top-up food and groceries £14.21 15.11% Small local shops £4.33 4.60% All convenience goods £94.04 100.00%

Source: Household survey results

5.8 The composite pattern of spending for comparison goods was achieved on the basis of MapInfo expenditure data in relation to the seven categories of spend, broken down as shown below (Table 5.2).

Table 5.2 — Percentage weighting for comparison goods sub-categories Comparison goods sub-category Percentage

weighting Clothing and footwear 24.16% Furniture, carpets and soft furnishings 12.50% DIY and decorating goods 9.11% Electrical items & domestic appliances 12.74% Health & beauty, chemist goods 12.73% Recreational goods 20.24% Other non-food items 8.52% All convenience goods 100.00%

Source: MapInfo

Comparison Goods Spending Patterns in the West Northamptonshire Catchment Area

5.9 Our assessment of spending patterns focuses on those eleven zones previously identified as forming the West Northamptonshire Catchment Area (WNCA). This is considered an appropriate approach given that these form the focus of the study area and the basis for the



floorspace projections set out in the following chapter. Spending patterns tabulations for the WNCA are set out at Table 4a of Appendix 1 (Volume 3)9. Table 4a firstly shows the market shares attracted to the centres and stores within the WNCA from its own residents, and then, in the second half of the table, shows the market shares to centres and stores which are attracted from the Outer Catchment Area (OCA).

Study area retention rate

5.10 Table 3a of Appendix 1 shows that the WNCA zones have £1,146.94m of comparison goods expenditure available in the base year of 2010, having made an allowance for SFT (as set out in Section 4). This increases to £1,328.29m in 2016; £1,712.31m in 2021 and £2,087.69m in 2026. Expenditure growth on comparison goods within the West Northamptonshire catchment therefore amounts to £940.75m between 2010 and 2026.

5.11 Table 5 of Appendix 1 shows that centres and stores within the WNCA attract a total of £819.31m from residents in the WNCA and OCA. This comprises of £797.10m of spending from residents in the WNCA; a further £22.21m of spending from residents in the WNCA is directed towards centres and stores in the OCA. Therefore, the SA-wide retention rate (i.e. the WNCA plus the OCA) is 71.4 per cent. That is to say, over £7 in ever £10 available to residents in the WNCA is spent at stores within the SA.

5.12 Of this £819.31m of retained expenditure, £797.10m is therefore retained within the WNCA. Dividing this by the total available expenditure ‘pot’ of £1,146.94m gives a retention rate for centres and stores within West Northamptonshire of 69.5 per cent. That is to say, 69.5 per cent of comparison goods expenditure available to residents in the WNCA is spent at stores actually within the WNCA.

5.13 However, it needs to be remembered that the WNCA also includes destinations outside the West Northamptonshire JPU administrative area (chiefly, the centres of Market Harborough and Buckingham). If expenditure flows to these centres are removed, the amount of retained expenditure decreases to £732.4m. Dividing this by the total available expenditure of £1,146.94m generates a retention rate for the West Northamptonshire administrative area centres only of 63.9 per cent of expenditure. We use this figure as our retention rate for the purposes of the remainder of the study.

Most popular comparison shopping destinations

5.14 Table 5.3 below sets out the top 10 destinations for comparison goods spending within the WNCA based on the findings of the household survey.

9 All references to appendices in this section refer to those contained within Volume 3.



Table 5.3 — Most popular destinations for comparison goods spending within WNCA

Destination Expenditure from WNCA £m, 2010

Proportion of total available comparison goods expenditure %

Northampton town centre Including St Peter’s Way Retail Park 259.12 22.6

Riverside Retail Park, Northampton 105.12 9.2

St James Retail Park, Northampton 87.19 7.6

Sixfields Retail Park, Northampton 54.07 4.7 Weston Favell District Centre, N’ton Including non-food turnover of Tesco Extra

47.91 4.2

Daventry Town Centre 39.00 3.4

Market Harborough Town Centre* 38.87 3.4

B&Q Warehouse, Northampton 26.09 2.3

Tesco Extra, Mereway, Northampton 21.96 1.9

Nene Valley Retail Park, Northampton 18.22 1.6

Top 10 destinations combined 697.55 60.8

Source: Table 5, Appendix 2 *Market Harborough town centre is not within West Northamptonshire but is included because the majority of its corresponding survey zone (Zone 1) falls within Daventry District.

5.15 Table 5.3 shows that Northampton town centre attracts £259.12m of spending from residents of the WNCA and is, as would be expected, the most popular comparison shopping destination. Six of the top ten destinations within the WNCA for comparison spending are standalone retail parks or stores within Northampton – the retail parks at Riverside, St James, Sixfields and Nene Valley, plus the strong-performing Tesco Extra store at Mereway, and B&Q Warehouse store at Towcester Road. These stores are all out-of-centre locations and do not perform roles as district or local centres. Combined these six destinations attract a turnover from the WNCA of £312.65m – over £53m more than Northampton town centre. These six destinations combined thus attract 27.3 per cent of comparison goods spending from the WNCA, compared to 22.6 per cent for Northampton town centre.

5.16 One of Northampton’s district centres also features in the top ten comparison spending destinations. As would be expected given its strong retail mix, Weston Favell attracts £47.91m of expenditure, which is broadly evenly split between the Tesco Extra store which anchors the centre (which has a non-food turnover of £24.54m), and the remaining retail offer (which has a turnover of £23.37m). Outside Northampton, Daventry attracts £39.00m of comparison goods expenditure, the sixth highest amount of any centre in West Northamptonshire, whilst Table 5 of Appendix 1 shows that Brackley town centre attracts £11.08m (11th highest amount from the WNCA) and Towcester £6.52m (13th highest amount). This shows the relatively limited comparison goods offer both centres offer, and affirms their focus towards meeting day-to-day service needs of a rather localised hinterland. Buckingham town centre (within the WNCA but outside the administrative boundaries of the West Northamptonshire area) attracts a further £6.78m.



Leakage of comparison goods expenditure

5.17 We have set out above that 69.5 per cent of comparison goods expenditure available to residents in the WNCA is spent at stores within the WNCA. Of the remaining expenditure, there are two components of ‘leakage’ to destinations further afield, comprising of the following:

• ‘leakage’ to destinations in the Outer Catchment Area (i.e. Zones A to H), which amounts to £22.21m, or 1.94 per cent, of expenditure (Table 5, Appendix 1, row ‘Sub-total for Outer Catchment Area’); and

• ‘leakage’ to destinations outside the combined study area (i.e. outside both the WNCA and OCA), which amounts to £327.63m, or 28.6 per cent, of expenditure (Table 5, Appendix 1, row ‘Sub-total for Outside Catchment Area’)

5.18 The main destinations for expenditure leakage are summarised in Table 5.4 below.

Table 5.4 — Principal destinations of expenditure leakage from WNCA Destination Expenditure leakage from

WNCA £m Proportion of total available comparison goods expenditure %

Expenditure leakage to destinations in Outer Catchment Area Wellingborough Town centre, retail parks and foodstores

10.69 0.93

Kettering Town centre, retail parks and foodstores

7.28 0.63

Rushden Town centre and foodstores 1.71 0.15

Olney town centre 1.26 0.11 Expenditure leakage to destinations outside study area Milton Keynes Milton Keynes Town centre, Bletchley Town Centre, Retail Parks, Ikea Denbigh

145.51 12.7

Banbury Town centre and retail parks 77.19 6.7

Rugby Town centre and retail parks 24.94 2.2

Leicester City centre, retail parks and Fosse Park

20.07 1.8

Source: Table 5, Appendix 1

5.19 Table 5.4 shows that Milton Keynes is clearly the most popular ‘beyond zones’ destination for residents of the WNCA, attracting £145.51m from residents of the WNCA. Figure 10 of Appendix 2 (Volume 3) shows the parts of the WNCA from where Milton Keynes sources its trade, and it can be seen that Milton Keynes attracts a market share from each of the 11 WNCA zones, and particularly strong expenditure flows from the south of the catchment area (South Northamptonshire District). Banbury attracts the second highest beyond zones expenditure flows of £77.19m, and Figure 11 of Appendix 4 shows that again the majority of this is attracted from the south of the WNCA, as well as Daventry and its surrounding hinterland.



5.20 Table 5.4 also shows that destinations in the Outer Catchment Area are not significant expenditure draws from residents within the WNCA. Destinations in Wellingborough account for the most expenditure, largely on account of the town’s proximity to residents in WNCA zones 3 and 10.

Comparison goods retention rates by zone

5.21 It can be observed that there is fluctuation across the WNCA as to the amount of comparison goods expenditure within the study area. The proportion of expenditure of WNCA residents which is spent at stores within the WNCA is shown in Table 4 of Appendix 1, row ‘Sub-total market shares for WNCA’. A degree of fluctuation is to be expected given the WNCA is a mixture of dense urban area proximate to multiple comparison retail nodes (Northampton) to rural zones with no major centres offering comparison goods contained within. The retention rate varies significantly therefore, from just 21.05 per cent in Zone 11 (Brackley & Buckingham) to 89.52 per cent in Zone 5 (Northampton Central & North).

5.22 The retention rate for each of the zones covering the urban area of Northampton (Zones 4 to 7 inclusive) can be considered strong, ranging from 86.29 per cent (Zone 7, Northampton South) to 89.52 per cent (Zone 5). This suggests that Northampton (the town centre, retail parks, district centres and local centres combined) is performing well at meeting the comparison shopping needs of its residents, and only approximately one in ten residents travel further afield to undertake comparison goods shopping. From each of the Northampton zones (and indeed the majority of the WNCA), the most popular alternative destination is Milton Keynes.

5.23 As noted above Zone 11 has by some distance the lowest retention rate of the 11 WNCA zones at just 21.05 per cent. The zone contains the two small rural market towns of Brackley (in South Northamptonshire District) and Buckingham (in Aylesbury Vale District). Both of these centres fulfil a rural service centre role and have relatively little in the way of comparison goods provision (as we discuss, in respect of Brackley, in Volume 2). Accordingly from this zone there is significant loss of expenditure to both Banbury (approximately 36 per cent of expenditure) and Milton Keynes (approximately 33 per cent of expenditure).

5.24 Zones 8 (Daventry) and 9 (Towcester) have similar comparison goods retention rates, of approximately 53 per cent and 54 per cent respectively. From Zone 8, there is significant outflow of expenditure to both Rugby and Banbury, whilst from Zone 9 the majority of the ‘leaked’ expenditure flows to Milton Keynes.

Localised comparison goods retention rate

5.25 The localised comparison goods retention rate – which is the proportion of expenditure on convenience goods available to residents in a specific zone which is spent in stores/town centres within that zone, can be expected to fluctuate given the location of the main higher order centres within certain zones, whilst other zones being predominantly rural. The rate can be observed from reviewing the ‘sub-total for zone’ rows within Table 4 of Appendix 1. The localised retention rates by zone are summarised in Table 5.5 below.



Table 5.5 — Comparison goods localised retention rates by zone

Zone Zone name Localised retention rate (%)

1 Market Harborough 50.66 2 West of Northampton 0.82 3 North of Northampton 3.85 4 Northampton West 22.23 5 Northampton Central & North 61.76 6 Northampton East & Weston Favell 46.61 7 Northampton South 11.76 8 Daventry 29.26 9 Towcester 17.06 10 South of Northampton 1.45 11 Brackley & Buckingham 16.14


5.26 As can be seen, there is significant variation across the WNCA in respect of localised retention rates. Zones 2, 3, and 11 are all predominantly rural areas, and do not contain any centres which act as comparison shopping destinations. Accordingly, the localised retention rates are very low, and in the case of Zone 2, under 1 per cent.

5.27 Zones which contain larger centres such as Northampton, Market Harborough and Daventry show higher localised retention rates. The highest localised retention rate is Zone 13 (Northampton Central & North), and in this zone over 60 per cent of comparison goods spending is directed towards centres within the zone – this includes Northampton town centre, St James and Nene Valley Retail Parks, and the Wellingborough Road local centre. Given the presence of Northampton town centre in this zone, the highest-order centre within the WNCA, it would be expected that the localised retention rate would be higher.

5.28 The second highest localised retention rate is Zone 6, which includes Weston Favell District Centre and the Riverside Retail Park. It has been identified previously that both of these centres are strong-performing comparison destinations, and this is reflected in the fact that almost 50 per cent of available comparison expenditure is retained within this zone, despite the close proximity of Northampton town centre just outside the boundary of the zone.

5.29 Of the market towns, Zone 8 (Daventry) has a localised retention rate of 30 per cent, which can be considered a significant underperformance, and suggests the comparison retail provision in this zone (which is focused on Daventry) may not be sufficient for many residents’ needs. The zones covering the South Northamptonshire towns of Towcester (Zone 9) and Brackley (Zone 11) have localised retention rates below 20 per cent, which is to be expected given the service-orientated focus of the retail offer in both of these towns.

5.30 Table 5.6 below shows the top three composite comparison shopping destinations for each of the 11 WNCA survey zones.



Table 5.6 — principal destinations spending by zone Zone Highest market share 2nd highest market share 3rd highest market share

Centre % Centre % Centre %

1 Market Harborough 44.48 Leicester (all) 21.67 Market Harborough retail warehouses

6.18

2 Northampton TC 29.86 Milton Keynes (all) 13.27 Sixfields RP 11.16

3 Northampton TC 23.40 Riverside RP 17.05 Milton Keynes (all) 10.45

4 Northampton TC 39.66 Sixfields RP 19.80 St James RP 15.46

5 Northampton TC 39.89 Riverside RP 13.37 St James RP 8.50

6 Riverside RP 25.57 Northampton TC 22.81 Weston Favell 18.58

7 Northampton TC 33.69 St James RP 14.74 Tesco, Mereway 10.52

8 Daventry TC 23.93 Banbury (all) 17.00 Northampton TC 10.87

9 Milton Keynes (all) 36.62 Northampton TC 12.90 St James RP 7.40

10 Northampton TC 31.46 Riverside RP 19.19 Milton Keynes (all) 16.24

11 Banbury (all) 36.01 Milton Keynes (all) 33.29 Other outside SA 9.33


TC = Town centre • DC = District centre • RP = Retail Park

Where (all) is shown, this refers to town centre, retail parks and foodstores combined in this location

5.31 Northampton town centre is thus the most popular comparison shopping destination for residents in Zones 2, 3, 4, 5, 7 and 10 which can be considered reflective of its natural catchment area for its current retail offer. The influence of the retail parks as comparison shopping destinations for residents of the WNCA is again shown in the fact that Riverside Retail Park attracts the highest market share from Zone 6 (Northampton East & Weston Favell), ahead of the town centre and also Weston Favell District Centre. The retail parks also form the second most popular comparison shopping destination for each of the six aforementioned zones where Northampton town centre has the highest market share.

5.32 Daventry attracts the highest market share from residents of Zone 8, although Banbury town centre is also a popular destination for residents in this zone. For residents of Zone 9 (Towcester) Milton Keynes is by some distance the most popular destination for comparison shopping, whilst for Zone 11 (Brackley & Buckingham) both Banbury and Milton Keynes are popular destinations and no centre within the WNCA attracts a significant market share. Neither Towcester nor Brackley can be considered major comparison shopping destinations.

Comparison goods market shares by main centres

Northampton town centre

5.33 Figure 1 in Appendix 2 (Volume 3) presents a zonal analysis of the market share of Northampton town centre for comparison goods shopping, which is based on the market shares data set out in Table 4 of Appendix 1. These figures represent the market share which the town centre attracts from each of the WNCA zones. Northampton town centre does not secure a market share of above 40 per cent for any one of the 11 zones, including its ‘local’ zone (Zone 5). For the zones which cover the Northampton urban area, the market share peaks at 39.89 per cent (Zone 5) but drops as low as 22.81 per cent (Zone 6, Northampton East & Weston Favell). The failure of the town centre to attract a stronger market share from within the Northampton urban area points to underperformance in the



town centre; as the dominant sub-regional shopping centre, it would be expected that the town centre commands a much stronger market share from its immediate catchment.

5.34 For the more rural parts of the catchment, there are fluctuations in the market share which the town centre attracts. There are reasonable flows to the town centre from Zone 2 for example (West of Northampton), from which the town centre attracts a market share of 29.86 per cent, and also from Zone 10 (South of Northampton), from which the town centre attracts a market share of 31.46 per cent. For the remaining zones the market share is under 15 per cent. The town centre attracts just 10.87 per cent of the market share from Zone 8 (Daventry) and in the two most outlying zones (Zones 1 and 11), attracts a market share of under two per cent. It would appear therefore that the town centre is not attracting market shares which adequately reflect its position as the main retail centre within the catchment area, nor the identified role of Northampton as a regional-scale shopping destination.

Northampton retail parks

5.35 Northampton town centre’s restricted market share is largely correlated to the strong market share which the town’s retail parks attract, both from the Northampton urban zones and wider WNCA. As set out above, the turnover of the six most popular out-of-centre destinations in Northampton combined exceeds that of the town centre by approximately £53m. Table 5.6 shows that the most popular retail park in Northampton is the Riverside Retail Park, which falls within Zone 6 (Northampton East & Weston Favell). Riverside has a broad range of retailer representation, which deviates away from traditional ‘bulky goods’ to include a number of more typical ‘High Street’ retailers such as Next, Boots, JJB Sports and Blacks. Riverside attracts a market share of 25.57 per cent from its local zone (Zone 6), a higher market share than Northampton town centre (22.81 per cent from Zone 6) attracts from this zone. Riverside also attracts significant market shares from Zone 10 (South of Northampton, 19.19 per cent) and Zone 5 (Northampton Central & North, 13.37 per cent). Riverside attracts a market share from each of the 11 WNCA zones, and a market share of over 5.0 per cent is attracted from six of these zones.

5.36 The other noticeably strong performing retail park in Northampton is St James Retail Park, which falls within Zone 5, along with the town centre. St James’s Retail Park also attracts a market share from each of the 11 WNCA zones. Like Riverside, the popularity of St James Retail Park lies in its ‘High Street’ focused retail offer, which includes a Next Home store, Laura Ashley, Mothercare, British Home Stores, and HomeSense, a home furnishings store operated by TK Maxx. St James Retail Park attracts market shares upwards of 10 per cent from Zone 2 (West of Northampton), Zone 4 (Northampton North) and Zone 7 (Northampton South). Unlike Riverside however, this retail park does not attract a higher market share than Northampton town centre from any of the WNCA zones.

5.37 Sixfields Retail Park also attracts a noticeable market share from its ‘local’ zone (Zone 4) of 19.8 per cent, and also attracts a market share of 11.16 per cent from Zone 2, but has a relatively more limited wider attraction when compared to Riverside and St James Retail Parks.



5.38 The market shares of the retail parks are mapped at Appendix 2 of Volume 3, with Figure 2 showing market shares of Riverside Retail Park, Figure 3 showing St James Retail Park, Figure 4 Sixfields Retail Park and Figure 5 Nene Valley Retail Park.

Northampton district and local centres

5.39 District and local centres perform, as a rule, a more localised shopping role, and tend to offer limited function as comparison shopping destinations. This is reflected in the household survey results, which show that of the ‘traditional’ district and local centres in Northampton, only the Wellingborough Road Centre attracts significant market shares.

5.40 As identified in Table 5.6 however the Weston Favell District Centre attracts strong market shares from the Northampton urban area. Weston Favell differs from a ‘traditional’ district centre because it is a purpose-built, relatively modern development, anchored around a large foodstore (Tesco Extra) and containing a wide variety of national multiple retailers (who typically have limited presence in district centres) in a covered mall environment. Indeed if the large foodstore was removed, the retail offer would be more typically found in a middle-order town centre, rather than a subsidiary ‘district’ level centre. Accordingly therefore, Weston Favell punches above its weight when compared to what ‘traditional’ district centres typically achieve.

5.41 Table 4 of Appendix 1 disaggregates the market shares attracted by Weston Favell between the Tesco Extra store and the remaining retail offer. It can be seen that from the ‘local’ zone (Zone 6), Tesco Extra attracts a market share of 10.07 per cent, with the remaining offer attracting a 8.51 per cent. Strong market shares to both Tesco and the rest of the centre can be observed from Zones 3, 5 and 10, affirming that Weston Favell clearly exerts a much wider trade draw than would be expected from a typical district centre, which would be expected to serve its ‘local’ zone and a very limited hinterland beyond this.

5.42 The comparison goods market shares attracted to Weston Favell (excluding Tesco) are shown mapped at Figure 6 of Appendix 2.

Daventry town centre

5.43 Daventry town centre attracts, as would be expected, a much more limited market share, reflecting its status as a sub-regional shopping centre. Table 4 of Appendix 1 shows that the strongest market share is attracted from its ‘local’ zone (Zone 8) from which a market share of 23.93 per cent is drawn. Very limited trade draw takes place beyond this zone, apart from a 6.12 per cent market share sourced from Zone 2 (West of Northampton). It can be seen that the town is losing trade to Banbury (17.00 per cent of the Zone 8 market share) and Rugby (15.18 per cent of the market share). Whilst both of these centres are larger than Daventry, there is not a significant difference in the breadth and quality of the retail offer, and the performance of Daventry can thus be considered to have potential for improvement, particularly if the town centre is to effectively serve an expanded residential population. The limited trade draw Daventry attracts is shown mapped at Figure 7 of Appendix 2.



Brackley and Towcester town centres

5.44 Brackley and Towcester both have limited roles as comparison shopping destinations, as they are small, ‘local’-level centres which meet the day-to-day service and convenience shopping needs of the residents of the towns, and a limited rural hinterland, but do not exert a trade draw beyond this. The market shares of Brackley and Towcester are shown at Figure 8 and Figure 9 of Appendix 2, and Table 4 of Appendix 1 confirms that Brackley attracts a market share of 7.44 per cent from its ‘local’ zone (Zone 11), whilst Towcester attracts a market share of 7.30 per cent from its ‘local’ zone (Zone 9); in both cases, the majority of residents travel to Milton Keynes to undertake their comparison goods shopping. We consider there is relatively little scope for either centre to significantly increase their market share within the context of the strong surrounding network of higher-order centres.

Overlapping comparison goods catchments

5.45 Drawing together the comments set out above, Table 5.7 below and Figures 1 to 12 of Appendix 2 set out an analysis of the dominant centres (where the comparison goods market share exceeds 40 per cent) and centres of subsidiary influence (which are defined on the basis of having comparison goods market shares of between 10 and 40 per cent).

5.46 The analysis shows that:

• Only three of the 11 WNCA zones have centres within a dominant market share, where the majority of comparison goods expenditure is directed towards. Instead, comparison goods spending is split between a number of centres of subsidiary influence which are all in competition with one another for claims on the available expenditure;

• In five of the WNCA zones there are at least three centres of subsidiary influence competing for expenditure;

• In Zone 2 there are four centres of subsidiary influence which attract market shares of over 10 per cent – Northampton town centre, Sixfields and St James Retail Parks, and Milton Keynes. In Zone 8 there are also four centres of subsidiary influence – Northampton, Daventry, Banbury and Rugby town centres;

• Northampton town centre acts as a dominant centre for two zones (Zones 4 and 5), and centre of subsidiary influence for seven further zones. Therefore there are two zones within the WNCA (Zones 1 and 11) from which it attracts a market share of below 10 per cent;

• The retail parks in Northampton attract a market share of upwards of 10 per cent in seven of the 11 zones, however only in two zones (Zones 2 and 4) does more than one retail park attract such a market share;

• Milton Keynes’ influence on comparison shopping patterns of West Northamptonshire is reflected in the fact that it acts as a centre of subsidiary influence in five of the 11 WNCA zones. Banbury is also a centre of subsidiary influence for two zones.



Table 5.7 — Dominant comparison goods centres, and centres of subsidiary influence, in WNCA Zone Dominant market share (40% +) Centre or store of subsidiary influence

(10-39%) 1 (Market Harborough) Market Harborough TC Leicester (all) 2 (West of Northampton) - Northampton TC

Milton Keynes (all) St James RP Sixfields RP

3 (North of Northampton) - Northampton TC Riverside RP Milton Keynes (all)

4 (Northampton West) Northampton TC Sixfields RP St James RP

5 (Northampton Central & North) Northampton TC Riverside RP

6 (Northampton East & Weston Favell) - Northampton TC Weston Favell DC (incl Tesco Extra)

7 (Northampton South) - Northampton TC St James RP Tesco Extra, Mereway

8 (Daventry) - Northampton TC Daventry TC Banbury (all) Rugby (all)

9 (Towcester) - Milton Keynes (all) Northampton TC

10 (South of Northampton) - Northampton TC Riverside RP Milton Keynes (all)

11 (Brackley & Buckingham) - Banbury (all) Milton Keynes (all)


TC = Town centre • DC = District centre • RP = Retail Park

Where (all) is shown, this refers to town centre, retail parks and foodstores combined in this location

Comparison goods sub-sectors

5.47 The analysis we have set out above relates to the composite market shares for comparison goods. However it is also considered a useful exercise to review shopping patterns in relation to the seven individual comparison goods sub-categories. These are:

• Clothes and shoes;

• Furniture, carpets and soft furnishings;

• DIY and decorating goods;

• Electrical goods;

• Health & beauty and pharmacy goods;

• Recreation goods; and

• Specialist comparison items



Clothes and shoes

5.48 Clothes and shoes is a critically important comparison sub-sector in terms of the success or otherwise of a town centre: analysis of the shopping patterns in this sub-sector can therefore be of considerable utility.

5.49 Table 5.8 indicates that from the 11 zones which comprise the WNCA, Northampton town centre attracts the highest market share from seven, and in four of these the market share is over 50.0 per cent. It also attracts the second highest market share from Zone 8 (Daventry) and Zone 9 (Towcester). The main competition for expenditure is Milton Keynes, which attracts the highest market share from Zone 9, and the second highest market share from a further seven zones (attracting a market share of between 11 and 31 per cent) – these represent significant trade draws and affirm that Milton Keynes is clearly the main competitor with Northampton for market shares in this category.

5.50 The retail parks in Northampton have a more limited influence over shopping patterns in this category, as they do not offer the same choice of clothing retailers as a town centre (although there are some exceptions, such as Fosse Park, which has a well developed fashion offer); nevertheless they still account for the third-most popular destination in six zones.

5.51 To the north of the WNCA (Zone 1) no centre in West Northamptonshire exerts a significant influence, with Market Harborough and Leicester attracting the majority of market shares. To the south/west of the catchment area, in addition to Milton Keynes, Banbury also acts as a strong attractor of market shares.

Table 5.8 — clothing and shoes sub-sector: market share of destinations by study zone

Zone Highest market share 2nd highest market share 3rd highest market share

Destination % Destination % Destination %

1 Market Harborough TC 34.29 Fosse Park, Leicester 17.50 Leicester CC 15.36

2 Northampton TC 43.86 Milton Keynes 21.05 Sixfields RP 5.26

3 Northampton TC 41.58 Milton Keynes 18.68 Weston Favell 9.28

4 Northampton TC 59.35 Milton Keynes 12.41 Sixfields RP 10.74

5 Northampton TC 60.01 Milton Keynes 11.51 Riverside RP 7.66

6 Northampton TC 38.55 Weston Favell 19.27 Riverside RP 11.46

7 Northampton TC 53.13 Milton Keynes 16.94 Riverside RP 6.44

8 Banbury TC 23.57 Northampton TC 19.66 Daventry TC 11.52

9 Milton Keynes 50.38 Northampton TC 23.22 Banbury TC 5.01 10 Northampton TC 52.00 Milton Keynes 18.00 Riverside RP 8.00

11 Banbury TC 44.05 Milton Keynes 31.08 Bicester Shopping Village

5.51

Source: household survey results

Furniture, carpets and soft furnishings

5.52 It is clear that in this sector, the established town centre face stronger competition from out-of-centre retail parks. Indeed the Riverside Retail Park is the most popular destination for Zones 6 and 10, whilst St James Retail Park is the most popular destination for residents in



Zone 7. In Zone 11 (Brackley & Buckingham), the retail parks in Banbury and Milton Keynes are also strong trade draws.

5.53 Northampton town centre is the most popular destination for spending on these goods for residents in Zones 2, 3, 4 and 5. For two of the zones covering the Northampton urban area therefore (Zones 6 and 7) the retail parks attract higher market shares than the town centre. Milton Keynes attracts much more limited market shares for this category when compared to clothing, although a strong influence over the South Northamptonshire zones can be seen. Daventry is the most popular destination for residents of its local zone (Zone 8), and also attracts a 11 per cent market share from Zone 2 (West of Northampton).

Table 5.9 — furniture, carpets and soft furnishings sub-sector: market share of destinations by study zone



1 Market Harborough TC

32.29 Leicester city centre 14.77 Fosse Park, Leicester 9.82

2 Northampton TC 23.03 Milton Keynes 17.07 Daventry TC 10.58

3 Northampton TC 20.29 St James RP 14.59 Riverside RP 13.53

4 Northampton TC 46.30 St James RP 17.59 Sixfields RP 10.69

5 Northampton TC 19.74 Ikea, MK 15.44 St James RP 13.38

6 Riverside RP 24.56 Northampton TC 17.73 St James RP 15.39

7 St James RP 32.97 Northampton TC 28.96 Milton Keynes 9.46

8 Daventry TC 22.19 Northampton TC 13.29 Milton Keynes 9.73

9 Milton Keynes 21.87 Milton Keynes- retail parks

13.98 St James RP 11.65

10 Riverside RP 18.21 Northampton TC / St James RP

17.69 Milton Keynes 14.36

11 Banbury – retail parks 17.23 Milton Keynes 16.55 Milton Keynes - retail parks

14.87


DIY and decorating goods

5.54 DIY market shares are often attracted to large-format, out-of-centre stores with parking, and therefore town centres often lose market shares to the standalone DIY stores and retail parks in this respect. This is reflected in the market shares set out in Table 5.10 set out below, which shows that out-of-centre stores account for the highest market shares in 10 out of the 11 zones (with the exception being Zone 6, where Weston Favell District Centre (including Tesco) attracts the highest market share). The standalone B&Q Warehouse store on Towcester Road, Northampton, is the most popular destination for Zones 5 and 7 (from which it attracts a market share of almost 50 per cent), the second most popular destination for five further zones, and the third most popular destination for a further three. Both the Sixfields and Riverside Retail Parks attract market shares from multiple survey zones.

5.55 Northampton town centre does not attract a significant market share from any of the 11 survey zones. Daventry town centre attracts a 22.3 per cent from its local zone, whilst Market Harborough town centre attracts a 30.4 per cent market share from its local zone. However the broader range of out-of-centre retailing in Northampton ensures that the town centre does not compete as effectively for the market share.



Table 5.10 — DIY and decorating goods sub sector: market share of destinations by study zone



1 Market Harb – retail warehouses

49.23 Market Harb town centre

30.38 B&Q, Northampton 2.90

2 Sixfields Retail Park 18.81 B&Q, Northampton 15.10 St James Retail Park 13.31

3 Riverside Retail Park 24.72 B&Q, Northampton 15.32 Castlefields RP, Wellingborough

14.36

4 Sixfields Retail Park 44.96 B&Q, Northampton 18.14 St James Retail Park 11.86

5 B&Q, Northampton 39.67 Riverside Retail Park 17.29 Sixfields Retail Park 13.07

6 Weston Favell District Centre

30.41 Riverside Retail Park 25.47 B&Q, Northampton 22.36

7 B&Q, Northampton 48.21 Nene Valley Retail Park

21.10 Riverside Retail Park 10.56

8 Daventry – retail warehouses

30.41 Daventry town centre 22.30 B&Q, Northampton 8.11

9 Homebase, Towcester

48.42 B&Q, Northampton 16.47 Milton Keynes- retail w’houses

10.09

10 Riverside RP 29.38 B&Q, Northampton 23.62 St James Retail Park 13.69

11 Banbury – retail warehouses

32.20 MK – retail warehouses

11.98 Buckingham town centre

10.21


Electrical goods

5.56 This category includes items such as washing machines, fridges and cookers, and therefore also sees strong performance from out-of-centre purpose built stores. As shown in Table 5.11, Riverside Retail Park is the most popular destination for electrical goods purchases in the WNCA, attracting the highest market share from four zones, and the second or third highest in a further four zones. Riverside offers branches of both Currys and Comet electrical stores. St James Retail Park, which has a more limited provision of retailers in this category, features in the top three most popular destinations for five of the 11 zones, as does Northampton town centre.

5.57 Daventry town centre attracts a 27 per cent market share from Zone 8, reflecting the limited provision of larger out-of-centre retailing in the town. Again the draw of Milton Keynes is largely limited to residents in the south of the District (Zones 9, 10 and 11), where there is limited provision in the centres within these zones.



Table 5.11 — electrical goods sub-sector: market share of destinations by study zone




53.68 Market Harborough- retail warehouses

8.13 Leicester city centre 6.50

2 St James RP 24.42 Riverside RP 16.31 Northampton TC 14.99

3 Riverside RP 37.65 Northampton TC 9.48 Milton Keynes 8.37

4 St James RP 33.92 Northampton TC 23.29 Riverside RP 10.74

5 Riverside RP 24.46 Northampton TC 19.48 Nene Valley RP 15.41

6 Riverside RP 43.37 Weston Favell DC 11.59 St James RP 9.85


8 Daventry TC 26.49 St James RP 9.07 Rugby TC 8.28

9 Milton Keynes 33.02 Riverside RP 13.21 Nene Valley RP 10.38 10 Riverside RP 44.16 Milton Keynes 13.96 St James RP /

Tesco, Mereway 9.31

11 Banbury – retail warehouses

33.61 Milton Keynes 24.62 Milton Keynes – retail warehouses

20.00


Health & beauty and pharmacy goods

5.58 In this sub-sector the existing network of town and district and local centres performs strongly, reflecting the availability of products in this category in most centres. Table 5.12 shows that Northampton town attracts the highest market share from five of the 11 zones, including a 56 per cent market share from its ‘local’ zone (Zone 5). Weston Favell District Centre also performs strongly, attracting a 34 per cent market share from Zone 6 and a 13 per cent market share from Zone 10.

5.59 The town centres of Market Harborough, Daventry, and to a lesser extent, Towcester and Brackley all attract noticeable market shares from their respective ‘local’ zones. Smaller centres such as Earls Barton, Woodford Halse, and Duston can be also seen to attract market shares from their local zones, suggesting that many residents’ needs in respect of this category are being adequately met at the local level.

5.60 The retail parks in Northampton continue to attract market shares, with Riverside offering a large Boots store/pharmacy, although there is no comparable store at Sixfields Retail Park.



Table 5.12 — health & beauty and pharmacy goods sub-sector: market share of centres by study zone


Destination % Destination Destination %


79.27 Fosse Park, Leicester

2.96 Corby town centre 2.22

2 Northampton TC 25.70 Sixfields RP 17.11 Daventry TC 9.39

3 Riverside RP 20.66 Northampton TC 11.52 Earls Barton 10.00

4 Northampton TC 37.44 Sixfields RP 36.79 Duston 9.21

5 Northampton TC 56.00 Riverside RP 6.71 Sixfields RP 5.19

6 Weston Favell DC 33.55 Riverside RP 24.33 Northampton TC 21.11

7 Northampton TC 40.52 Tesco Extra, Mereway

31.13 Riverside RP 5.41

8 Daventry TC 57.81 Rugby town centre 8.29 Woodford Halse 7.62

9 Towcester TC 25.30 Milton Keynes 18.95 Tesco, Towcester 14.72 10 Northampton TC 22.71 Riverside RP 18.93 Weston Favell 13.14

11 Brackley TC 34.38 Banbury TC 19.46 Buckingham TC 16.19


Recreation goods

5.61 This category includes items such as sports equipment, bicycles, musical instruments and toys. As with DIY and electrical items, it can be seen from Table 5.13 that market shares are relatively localised, particularly from the Northampton urban area, with the only examples of residents travelling further afield being from the predominantly rural Zones 9 and 11. Northampton town centre attracts the highest market share from five of the 11 WNCA zones, followed by St James Retail Park (3 zones). The retail parks in Northampton attract at least one of the top three highest market shares in eight of the zones, affirming the strength of their attraction against the town centre. It can also be seen that Daventry has significant competition for market shares in this category from both Rugby and Banbury town centres.

Table 5.13 — recreation goods sub-sector: market share of centres by study zone Zone Highest market share 2nd highest market share 3rd highest market share



35.59 Leicester city centre 14.22 Fosse Park, Leicester 12.75

2 Northampton TC 33.74 St James RP 23.83 Sixfields RP 14.25


4 St James RP 35.96 Northampton TC 26.86 Sixfields RP 20.87

5 Northampton TC 34.14 St James RP 23.98 Riverside RP 21.45

6 Riverside RP 42.29 Northampton TC 19.94 St James RP 15.73


8 Daventry TC 20.51 Rugby town centre 13.82 Banbury TC 12.35

9 St James RP 23.21 Milton Keynes 20.31 Milton Keynes – retail w’houses

13.39


11 Milton Keynes 25.47 Banbury TC 25.37 Milton Keynes – retail w’houses

14.18




Specialist comparison items

5.62 Finally, Table 5.14 sets out the market shares for specialist comparison goods items (such as books, music, jewellery or china). It can be seen that Northampton town centre performs strongly, attracting the highest market share from seven of the 11 WNCA zones. From three of these, a market share upwards of 50 per cent is attracted. The Tesco Extra-anchored District Centre at Weston Favell also performs strongly, reflecting to a large extent the broad range of goods offered. The non-food offer of other supermarkets such as Tesco Extra at Mereway, Northampton (Zones 2, 4 and 7), Sainsbury’s at Sixfields, Northampton (Zone 4) and Morrisons at Kettering Road, Northampton (Zone 5) also attract notable market shares.

5.63 It can be seen that Daventry experiences significant competition for market shares from Banbury and Rugby in this category, with Banbury attracting a 26 per cent market share against Daventry’s 17 per cent. Banbury also is, by some distance, the most popular destination for residents in Zone 11 (Brackley & Buckingham), from which it attracts a market share of over 40 per cent. Residents of Zone 9 (Towcester) travel to Milton Keynes and Northampton to undertake the majority of their purchases of these items.

Table 5.14 — Specialist comparison goods sub-sector: market share of centres by study zone




61.77 Fosse Park, Leicester 10.75 Asda, Corby 4.76

2 Northampton TC 39.05 Tesco, Mereway 12.61 Milton Keynes 12.42

3 Northampton TC 40.99 Market Harborou’h 12.13 Weston Favell 10.66

4 Northampton TC 63.92 Tesco, Mereway 5.24 Sainsbury’s, Sixfields 4.39

5 Northampton TC 63.57 Weston Favell DC 11.49 Morrisons, Kettering Road

4.86

6 Northampton TC 41.83 Weston Favell DC 26.37 Milton Keynes 8.19

7 Northampton TC 55.36 Tesco, Mereway 25.00 Milton Keynes 8.93

8 Banbury TC 26.32 Rugby town centre 18.42 Daventry TC 17.11

9 Milton Keynes 36.68 Northampton TC 21.11 Tesco, Towcester 16.64 10 Northampton TC 46.15 Milton Keynes / Weston

Favell 15.38 Olney TC 7.69

11 Banbury TC 41.64 Milton Keynes 17.29 Buckingham TC 6.74


Convenience Goods Spending Patterns in the West Northamptonshire Catchment Area

5.64 In assessing convenience goods shopping patterns we again focus solely on the WNCA zones, rather than additionally considering the OCA. Data tabulations for convenience goods spending patterns are again set out at Appendix 1 of Volume 3 of this report.

5.65 Table 3b of Appendix 1 indicates that the WNCA zones have £711.27m of convenience goods expenditure available in the base year of 2010, having made an allowance for SFT (as set out in section 4). This increases to £746.39m in 2016; £797.66m in 2021 and £850.39m in 2026. Between 2010 and 2026, convenience goods expenditure in the WNCA will grow by £139.13m.



5.66 Table 10 of Appendix 1 shows that in the 2010 base year, residents in the WNCA spend a total of £616.81m at foodstores within the 11 WNCA survey zones, equivalent to 86.72 per cent of all expenditure (Table 10, Appendix 1, row ‘sub-total for WNCA’). However, as with the comparison goods spending patterns, some of this expenditure is directed to stores outside the West Northamptonshire administrative boundary. If the expenditure flows to stores in destinations such as Market Harborough and Buckingham is removed, £546.9m of the £711.27m is retained, equivalent to a retention rate of 76.9 per cent.

5.67 A further £30.55m is spent at foodstores in the OCA, chiefly in stores in Wellingborough and Kettering.

5.68 Table 5.15 below sets out the top 10 destinations for convenience goods spending within the WNCA based on the findings of the household survey.

Table 5.15 — Most popular destinations for convenience goods spending within WNCA Destination Expenditure from OCA

£m Proportion of total available comparison goods expenditure %

Morrisons, Kettering Road, Northampton 69.04 9.71 Tesco Extra, Mereway, Northampton 63.39 8.91 Tesco Extra, Weston Favell, Northampton 56.46 7.94 Sainsbury’s, Gambrel Road, Northampton 56.01 7.87 Morrisons, Victoria Promenade, Northampton 33.01 4.64 Tesco, Oxford Road, Brackley 24.32 3.42 Tesco, New Street, Daventry 24.27 3.41 Waitrose, Bowen Square, Daventry 22.44 3.41 Asda, Kingsthorpe, Northampton 21.22 2.98 Waitrose, Kingsthorpe, Northampton 20.61 2.90 Top 10 destinations combined 390.77 55.0


5.69 Table 5.15 shows that four foodstores dominate spending patterns in the WNCA, attracting turnovers upwards of £55m from the West Northamptonshire catchment. The most popular foodstore for residents of the WNCA is Morrisons at Kettering Road, which attracts a turnover of £69.04m, almost 10 per cent of the total available convenience expenditure. The Tesco Extra store at Mereway attracts a similarly high turnover of £63.39m, equivalent to 8.91 per cent of the total available convenience turnover in the WNCA. The Tesco Extra store at Weston Favell District Centre, and the Sainsbury’s at Gambrel Road (Sixfields) attract turnovers of £56.46m and £56.01m, equivalent to 7.91 and 7.87 per cent of total WNCA convenience expenditure. Collectively these four stores attract over one-third of the convenience expenditure of the WNCA.

5.70 The second Morrisons store at Victoria Promenade achieves a much smaller turnover vis-à-vis the company’s Kettering Road store, of £33.01m. There is then a cluster of stores which attract very similar levels of turnover: Tesco in Daventry and Brackley; Waitrose in Daventry and Kingsthorpe District Centre (Northampton), and Asda, also at Kingsthorpe District Centre.

5.71 Combined, the ten most popular foodstores in the WNCA account for £390.77m of the £711.27m convenience goods expenditure available in the 2010 base year. This represents 55.0 per cent of the total available expenditure, and suggests a strong degree of



polarisation towards larger foodstores by residents in order to meet their food shopping needs.

Principal destinations for convenience goods expenditure leakage

5.72 The main individual ‘leakage’ destinations for convenience goods expenditure are shown in Table 5.16. As noted above, there are two components to convenience goods expenditure leakage: firstly, leakage of expenditure to foodstores elsewhere in the wider OCA, and secondly, leakage to foodstores outside the study area as a whole. The former of these accounts for £30.55m of expenditure, and the latter accounts for a further £63.90m.

5.73 It can be seen that there is substantial leakage of convenience goods expenditure to foodstores in Wellingborough, much of which is derived from Zone 3 on the eastern edge of the WNCA. Table 10 also shows however that Wellingborough stores attract £4.46m of spending from Zone 6 – Northampton East and Weston Favell – indicating that some residents living in this area prefer to shop at the Morrisons and Sainsbury’s stores in Wellingborough in preference to the Tesco at Weston Favell.

5.74 Of the stores outside the study area, the Tesco Extra in Banbury draws the most expenditure of any store outside the WNCA, at £9.82m, followed Asda at Milton Keynes, and Sainsbury’s stores in Rugby and Banbury; the latter four of these all attract similar volumes of trade from the WNCA. It is interesting to note that stores in Rugby and Milton Keynes are some distance outside the boundaries of the WNCA, suggesting that residents visiting these stores are prepared to travel a longer distance than may be expected in order to undertake their food shopping.

Table 5.16 — Principal destinations of convenience goods expenditure leakage from WNCA Destination Expenditure leakage from

WNCA £m Proportion of total available comparison goods expenditure %

Expenditure leakage to destinations in Outer Catchment Area Sainsbury’s, Wellingborough 6.50 0.91 Morrisons, Wellingborough 5.32 0.75 Tesco, Wellingborough 3.64 0.51 Waitrose Food & Home, Rushden 2.61 0.37 Expenditure leakage to destinations outside study area Tesco, Banbury 9.82 1.38 Asda, Milton Keynes 6.19 0.87 Sainsbury’s, Rugby 5.75 0.81 Sainsbury’s, Banbury 5.60 0.79


Convenience goods retention rate by zone

5.75 The retention rates by zone are shown in the row ‘Sub-total market shares for WNCA’ (Table 9, Appendix 1). It can be seen that there is a high retention rate of convenience goods expenditure across the WNCA, and particularly in the zones containing the Northampton urban area and its hinterland. For the zones covering Daventry and South Northamptonshire, the retention rate is lower but can still be considered reasonable. Daventry contains two town centre foodstores, but no larger format superstores, whilst



Towcester and Brackley both have one moderate out-of-centre foodstore (Tesco in each case) and Waitrose supermarkets proximate to their town centres.

5.76 Four of the 11 WNCA zones have a convenience goods retention rate of 95 per cent or above (Zones 2, 4, 5 and 7), the latter three of which cover the Northampton urban area). In addition 93 per cent of expenditure in Zone 6 (Northampton East & Weston Favell) is retained within the WNCA. These can be considered strong performances and evidence that the convenience shopping needs of the majority of residents in Northampton and its surrounding catchment area are being satisfied with the existing network of foodstores.

5.77 There are six zones where under 90 per cent of the convenience goods expenditure is retained within the WNCA. These are:

• Zone 1 (Market Harborough) which has a retention rate of 80.34 per cent, with market shares diverted to stores in Corby and Rugby;

• Zone 3 (North of Northampton), which has a retention rate of 63.52 per cent. The majority of the remaining expenditure flows to stores in Wellingborough, and there are no flows of expenditure outside the wider 19-zone study area;

• Zone 8 (Daventry) which has a retention rate of 70.21 per cent, with larger foodstores in Rugby (Sainsbury’s) and Banbury (Tesco Extra, Sainsbury’s and Morrisons) attracting noticeable market shares from this zone;

• Zone 9 (Towcester) has a respectable retention rate of 87.32 per cent but loses market share to Tesco at Wolverton, and Asda at Bletchley, both in Milton Keynes;

• Zone 10 (South of Northampton) retains 79.62 per cent of expenditure within the WNCA, with the majority of remaining expenditure flowing to destinations in the wider OCA, chiefly Wellingborough.

• Zone 11 (Brackley & Buckingham) has a retention rate of 75.83 per cent, with larger foodstores in Banbury (Tesco Extra and Sainsbury’s), plus the Asda at Bletchley in Milton Keynes, also attracting noticeable market shares.

Convenience goods localised retention rate

5.78 The localised convenience goods retention rate – which is the proportion of expenditure on convenience goods available to residents in a specific zone which is spent in stores/town centres within that zone, shows considerable variation. The rate can be observed from reviewing the ‘sub-total for survey’ rows within Table 9 of Appendix 1. The localised retention rates by zone are summarised in Table 5.17 below.



Table 5.17 — Convenience goods localised retention rates by zone Zone Zone name Localised retention rate (%) 1 Market Harborough 75.93

2 West of Northampton 3.83

3 North of Northampton 14.00

4 Northampton West 62.01

5 Northampton Central & North 48.23

6 Northampton East & Weston Favell 74.49

7 Northampton South 68.04 8 Daventry 63.14 9 Towcester 76.16

10 South of Northampton 7.33 11 Brackley & Buckingham 73.10


5.79 As can be seen, there is significant variation across the WNCA in respect of localised retention rates. The three predominantly rural zones – Zones 2, 3 and 10 – all display low local retention rates because there is little in the way of convenience goods provision in these zones, and residents must travel further afield to undertake most of their convenience shopping.

5.80 For the zones covering the Northampton urban area, the local retention rates fluctuate between 48.23 per cent (Zone 5) and 74.49 per cent (Zone 6). This is to be expected to an extent as clearly, within an urban area, residents’ shopping patterns and the geographical provision of convenience shopping facilities do not reflect zonal boundaries. However the relatively low localised retention rate in Zone 5 points to a possible shortfall of provision within Northampton town centre. Table 9 of Appendix 1 shows that the only major foodstore in Northampton town centre, Sainsbury’s in the Grosvenor Centre, attracts a relatively small market share, limited to 5.88 per cent from its ‘local’ zone, plus market shares of circa 5 per cent from Zones 4 and 10. The limited attraction of this store reflects its small size and offer compared to the larger, out-of-centre stores which have a much broader offer.

5.81 In zones where there is one or more clear higher-order centre (Zones 1, 8, 9 and 11) the localised retention rates are respectable, reflecting the fact that each of these centres has a choice of moderate sized foodstores. We draw attention to the localised retention rate in Daventry (63.14 per cent) – this suggests the size of the two main foodstores in Daventry at present (Tesco and Waitrose) are limited and do not cater for many residents main food shopping requirements; this is reflected, as noted above, in market share being lost to larger stores in Banbury and Rugby.

5.82 In zones where there is a low local retention rate it is particularly important to pay attention to the locations to where spending is being diverted to. This is shown in Table 5.18 below, which shows the top three composite convenience shopping destinations for each of the 11 WNCA survey zones.



Table 5.18 — principal destinations spending by zone Zone Highest market share 2nd highest market share 3rd highest market share


1 Sainsbury’s, Market Harborough

38.33 Tesco Metro, Market Harborough

19.83 Other outside OCA 11.99

2 Sainsbury’s, Gambrel Road, Northampton

23.99 Tesco Extra, Mereway, Northampton

16.29 Waitrose, Daventry 7.25

3 Tesco Extra, Weston Favell DC, Northampton

16.02 Morrisons, Kettering Road, Northampton

9.37 Tesco, Wellingborough

7.29

4 Sainsbury’s, Gambrel Road, Northampton

40.79 Morrisons, Victoria Promenade, Northampton

8.62 Aldi, Harlestone Road, Northampton

7.01

5 Morrisons, Kettering Road, Northampton

26.38 Waitrose, Kingsthorpe DC, Northampton

12.88 Asda, Kingsthorpe DC, Northampton

11.95

6 Tesco Extra, Weston Favell DC, Northampton

35.89 Morrisons, Kettering Road, Northampton

29.77 Other foodstores in Zone 14

5.78

7 Tesco Extra, Mereway, Northampton


13.46 Sainsbury’s, Gambrel Road, Northampton

7.72

8 Tesco, Daventry 26.91 Waitrose, Daventry 22.47 Other foodstores in Zone 16

8.24

9 Tesco, Towcester 36.28 Waitrose, Towcester 32.75 Tesco, Wolverton, Milton Keynes

6.37

10 Tesco Extra, Mereway, Northampton


19.76 Tesco Extra, Weston Favell DC, Northampton

11.95

11 Tesco, Brackley 28.28 Tesco, Buckingham 21.75 Waitrose, Brackley 14.44


5.83 Table 5.18 shows that the highest market shares in the WNCA are split between a relatively limited number of stores, which are predominantly located in the Northampton urban area. Tesco Extra at Weston Favell District Centre attracts the highest market share from two zones (Zones 3 and 6), and the Tesco Extra store at Mereway also attracts the highest market share from two zones (Zones 7 and 10). The Mereway store attracts a market share of almost 60 per cent from its local zone, Zone 7. Sainsbury’s at Gambrel Road, adjacent to the Sixfields Retail Park, attracts the highest market share from Zones 2 and 4, including a 41 per cent market share from Zone 4.

5.84 Elsewhere in the WNCA, it can be seen that the two principal foodstores in both Daventry and Towcester attract highly similar market shares, whilst in Brackley (Zone 11) the Tesco store attracts a market share almost double that of the Waitrose store.

5.85 It can also be seen that the WNCA is mostly self-sufficient in terms of retention of market shares, although as would be expected zones on the periphery suffer leakage of expenditure, particularly to destinations in the OCA. Table 5.18 identifies only two zones (Zones 1 and 9) where one of the top three stores or centres for convenience market shares is outside the West Northamptonshire area.



Table 5.19 — Dominant convenience goods centres, and centres of subsidiary influence, in WNCA

Zone Zone name Dominant market share (30%+) Store/centre of subsidiary influence (10-29%)

1 Market Harborough Sainsbury’s, Market Harborough

Tesco Metro, Market Harborough

2 West of Northampton None Sainsbury’s, Gambrel Road, Northampton Tesco Extra, Mereway Northampton

3 North of Northampton None Tesco Extra, Weston Favell DC

4 Northampton West Sainsbury’s, Gambrel Road, Northampton

None

5 Northampton Central & North None Morrisons, Kettering Road, Northampton Waitrose, Kingsthorpe DC, Northampton Asda, Kingsthorpe DC

6 Northampton East & Weston Favell Morrisons, Kettering Road, Northampton Tesco Extra, Weston Favell

None

7 Northampton South Tesco Extra, Mereway Morrisons, Victoria Promenade, Northampton

8 Daventry None Tesco, Daventry Waitrose, Daventry

9 Towcester Tesco, Towcester Waitrose, Towcester

None

10 South of Northampton None Morrisons, Victoria Promenade, Northampton Tesco Extra, Weston Favell DC

11 Brackley & Buckingham None Tesco, Brackley Tesco, Buckingham Waitrose, Brackley

5.86 Our analysis of the information in Table 5.19 shows that:

• Six of the 11 WNCA zones lack a dominant store which attracts over 30 per cent of the market share. Accordingly in these zones the market shares are split between one or more stores/centres of subsidiary influence.

• For the zones which have a dominant store, in three of the five cases the market share attracted to that store is sufficiently strong that there is no store with a subsidiary influence. In the case of Zone 4, the Sainsbury’s store attracts a market share of 40.79 per cent), whilst in the case of Zones 6 and 9, there are two stores which attract a market share of 30 per cent or above, thus limiting the opportunity for other stores to gain a subsidiary influence over shopping patterns in these zones.

• Residents in Zones 2, 5 and 11 have the greatest choice of foodstore destinations, as in each of these locations there are three stores which are sufficiently popular to act as stores of subsidiary influence.

• There are no dominant stores or stores of subsidiary influence outside the boundaries of the WNCA, suggesting that convenience shopping provision is sufficient to meet the requirements of the majority of the residents of West Northamptonshire.



Summary of current patterns of retail spending 5.87 In summary, the findings of the household survey draw the following principal conclusions

in respect of comparison goods spending patterns within the WNCA:

• The total ‘pot’ of comparison goods expenditure available to the WNCA in the 2010 base year is £1,146.94m. The findings of the household survey indicates that £797.10m of this spending flows to stores within the WNCA, with the remainder ‘leaking’ to either destinations in the OCA (£22.21m) or further afield (£327.63m).

• The WNCA therefore achieves a comparison goods retention rate of 69.5per cent, or 71.4 per cent when including the wider OCA which formed the basis of the household survey. Given the rural nature of parts of the WNCA, the limited comparison role offered by centres outside Northampton, and the presence of higher-order centres such as Milton Keynes a short distance outside the WNCA boundary, this is considered a reasonable performance, albeit one with potential for improvement.

• Northampton town centre is the most popular comparison shopping destination for residents in the WNCA, attracting £259.12m of expenditure, equivalent to 22.6 per cent of the total available expenditure.

• The retail parks in Northampton offer the strongest competition to the town centre in terms of claims on expenditure. The strongest performing retail park is Riverside, which attracts £105.12m of expenditure (9.2 per cent of the total), followed by St James Retail Park (£87.19m, 7.6 per cent of the total expenditure).The six strongest performing out-of-centre destinations attract a turnover from the WNCA of £53m more than Northampton town centre. These five destinations combined thus attract 27.3 per cent of comparison goods spending from the WNCA, compared to 22.6 per cent for Northampton town centre.

• Weston Favell District Centre is also a significant attractor of expenditure, with a turnover far exceeding that which would be expected from a ‘traditional’ district centre. The strong retail mix at the centre, which includes a large number of national multiple retailers in a purpose-built mall environment, plus the presence of the Tesco Extra foodstore anchoring the centre, explain the strong performance.

• Daventry town centre attracts £39.00m of comparison expenditure, but faces strong competition for comparison goods expenditure from both Rugby and Banbury, which have a more developed retail offer. It is considered there is potential to improve Daventry’s attractiveness as a comparison retail destination throughout the study period.

• Brackley and Towcester have a very limited comparison retail offer, and serve as local service centres for their rural hinterlands. Accordingly, they do not feature prominently as comparison shopping destinations in the household survey, and their influence on shopping patterns in the WNCA is expected to remain limited throughout the study period.



5.88 The following principal conclusions have been drawn in respect of convenience shopping patterns in the WNCA:

• The WNCA zones have £711.27m of convenience expenditure available in the base year of 2010 (having made an allowance for SFT), and the household survey indicates that £616.81m of this is presently spent at stores within the WNCA, equivalent to a retention rate of 86.7 per cent. A further £30.55m is spent at stores in the OCA, bringing a combined study area retention rate of 91.0 per cent. The remaining £63.90m flows to stores outside the study area.

• Four foodstores attract turnovers of upwards of £55.0m from the WNCA. The most popular foodstore for residents of the WNCA is the Morrisons store at Kettering Road, Northampton, which attracts a turnover of £69.04m, equivalent to 9.71 per cent of the total available convenience expenditure. The Tesco Extra store at Mereway achieves a similarly high turnover of £63.39m (8.91 per cent of total available expenditure). Tesco Extra at Weston Favell District Centre attracts the third highest turnover (£56.46m), followed by Sainsbury’s at Gambrel Road, Northampton (£56.01m).

• Tesco and Waitrose in Daventry attract similar turnovers, each accounting for approximately 3 per cent of the total available convenience expenditure. Tesco and Waitrose in Towcester also attract similar trade draws, and each accounts for approximately 2.5 per cent of the overall ‘pot’ of expenditure. Tesco is the dominant foodstore in Brackley.

• The majority of zones in the WNCA experience very little ‘leakage’ of expenditure on convenience goods to destinations outside the catchment boundary. However there is expenditure leakage from the Daventry area to larger foodstores in Banbury and Rugby, reflecting the moderate size of the existing foodstores in Daventry at present. There is also some leakage from the South Northamptonshire zones to foodstores in Milton Keynes, and to a lesser extent Banbury.



6 QUANTITATIVE NEED FOR COMPARISON GOODS RETAIL FLOORSPACE

Methodology

6.1 The assessment of quantitative need adopts the widely respected step by step methodology, which is consistent with CLG’s practice guidance. The essential steps in the assessment of quantitative retail need build on the analysis undertaken at Section 5 and are as follows:

o Step 1 – assess the scale of population and expenditure growth between 2007 (the year from which MapInfo population and expenditure data is sourced) and 2026 (the end year for the study), and make allowances for Special Forms of Trading retail activity (Section 4);

o Step 2 - assess existing retail supply and market shares (assess the provision of existing retail floorspace, and the shopping patterns of residents within the catchment area through the results of an empirical household survey of households resident in the catchment area, in order to establish the turnover attracted to each centre/store, and the proportion of expenditure which is ‘retained’ within the catchment area ) (Section 5)

o Step 3 – make allowance for other ‘claims’ on growth in retained expenditure (in addition to SFT in Step 1), as a result of

commitments to new floorspace (either schemes under construction or extant permissions that would result in additional retail floorspace);

sales density growth (that is the growth in turnover for existing retailers within existing floorspace);

o Step 4: consider whether overtrading of existing floorspace represents an additional source of quantitative need.

o Step 5: assess quantitative need by calculating the initial residual expenditure pot that is potentially available for new retail floorspace (under three scenarios) and apply an estimated sales density (turnover per sq.m) to covert this expenditure to a quantitative need for additional floorspace.

o Step 6: develop alternative scenarios for calculating growth in residual expenditure, based on increases or decreases in the projected expenditure retention level.

6.2 This section should be read in conjunction with quantitative comparison need tabulations, which are set out at Appendix 1 of Volume 3 of the study, and are structured as follows:

• Table 1 sets out the population of the WNCA to 2026, with Table 2 showing the per capita expenditure for each of the 11 WNCA zones. Table 3a then multiplies the figures in Tables 1 and 2 together to show the overall ‘pot’ of comparison goods expenditure available to residents of the WNCA over the study period, having taken into account special forms of trading;

• Table 4 shows the market shares attracted to each of the centres in the WNCA, and Table 5 converts these market shares to spending patterns for the 2010 base year.



• Table 6 then presents a summary of the capacity for additional comparison goods floorspace for the WNCA over the study period to 2026, drawing together the outputs from Tables 1 to 5. The summary figures shown represent the requirement solely for centres within the West Northamptonshire administrative area10, and is broken down by five-year interval periods.

• Tables 7a to 7d then disaggregate the findings shown in Table 6 between each of the constituent West Northamptonshire authorities. For each case, it is assumed that the current market shares obtained by each centre will remain static throughout the study period. The exception to this is Daventry, where we have modelled for a static and increasing market share, the latter reflecting the possibility of a town centre retail scheme coming forward during the course of the study period, which will improve on the current (low) comparison goods expenditure retention rates.

• Finally Table 8 summarises the comparison goods requirement for the WNCA as a whole and for each of the constituent districts.

Step 1: Population and expenditure growth 6.3 We summarise the growth in population and the ‘pot’ of comparison goods expenditure

growth in the WNCA in Table 6.1 below.

Table 6.1 — Summary of population and comparison expenditure growth in WNCA Reporting year Population of WNCA Total available comparison

expenditure £m (including SFT discount)

2010 413,734 1,146.94 2016 424,881 1,398.29 2021 440,689 1,712.31 2026 455,266 2,087.69

Source: Table 1 and Table 3a, Appendix 1

Step 2: Assessment of existing retail provision 6.4 Step 2 of the quantitative need assessment requires the assessment of existing retail

provision in the WNCA, to establish the current market shares, the level of expenditure which is being retained within the WNCA, and the distribution of this retained expenditure between existing retail destinations. This exercise has been undertaken in Section 5 of this study, and found that:

• All centres and stores within the WNCA achieved a retention rate of 69.5 per cent;

• Within this, centres and stores solely within the West Northamptonshire administrative area (i.e. removing those centres which form part of the WNCA but fall outside the boundaries of Northampton Borough and Daventry and South

10 i.e., excluding those parts of the WNCA which fall outside the administrative boundaries of the WNJPU such as Market Harborough and Buckingham



Northamptonshire Districts) achieve a comparison goods retention rate of 63.9 per cent;

• Northampton town centre is the most popular destination for comparison goods spending within the WNCA but faces strong competition for expenditure from the retail parks in the town, which are presently trading extremely strongly.

Step 3: Claims on Expenditure Growth 6.5 The next step is to make an allowance for ‘claims’ on the growth of retained expenditure. In

Section 4 of this study we have already set out the requirement to apply a discount to the total ‘pot’ of comparison expenditure available in the WNCA. In addition to Special Forms of Trading there are two further claims on expenditure growth which must be taken into account:

commitments to new floorspace (either schemes under construction or extant permissions that would result in additional retail floorspace); and

sales density growth (the growth in turnover for existing retailers within existing floorspace);

Commitments to new comparison goods floorspace

6.6 The second ‘claim’ which needs to be taken into account is the future turnover requirements of planning commitments, having made an assessment of how much the commitments’ turnover will be derived from residents of the WNCA. Following discussions with each of the constituent West Northamptonshire local planning authorities, we are not aware of any significant (upwards of 200 sq.m net) commitments for comparison goods retail floorspace which remain unimplemented and would, on completion, be expected to draw trade from the WNCA. Accordingly the row showing planning commitments (Row H) in Table 6 of Appendix 1 is left blank to reflect the lack of planning commitments.

Sales density growth

6.7 It is also necessary to make allowance for the growth in sales efficiency of existing comparison goods retailers within the WNCA, as stores are expected to trade to increasingly efficient levels of turnover per square metre of sales area over the course of the study period.

6.8 In making an allowance for growth in floorspace efficiency, we adopted the floorspace efficiency changes set out in Table 6.2 below. We have tied the rate of comparison and convenience goods floorspace efficiency change to the expenditure projections for the forecast period, using a ratio of 37.9 per cent for comparison goods and 46.2 per cent for convenience goods, which is based on our analysis of the historic relationship between comparison expenditure growth and comparison floorspace efficiency change11

11 Between 1987 and 1999, the underlying floorspace efficiency trend (as recommended by Experian in its previous Retail Planner Briefing Note 7.1 (January 2009) was 2.2 per cent per annum for comparison goods and 0.6 per cent per annum for convenience goods. Over the same period, expenditure growth was 5.8 per cent per annum and 1.3 per cent



Table 6.2 — Sales density growth rates for comparison goods Interval period Comparison goods sales density growth 2010-2016 1.27% per annum 2016-2021 1.25% per annum

2021-2026 1.23% per annum

Step 4: Overtrading 6.9 Overtrading refers to both the performance of centres and stores within a catchment when

related to benchmark turnovers (for example, a centre of comparable size, or the turnover of a particular store based on applying company average sales densities to the floorspace of that store) but – as highlighted in the Practice Guidance accompanying PPS4 – can also be recognised by indicators such as overcrowding and congestion within stores. The degree to which stores within a catchment area are under-trading or over-trading is therefore highlighted in the practice guidance as both a quantitative and qualitative indicator of need therefore.

6.10 Paragraph 3.16 of the practice guidance states that ‘the extent to which the turnover of existing stores significantly exceeds benchmark turnovers may be a qualitative indicator of need, and can in some cases inform quantitative need considerations. For example it may be an expression of the poor range of existing facilities or limited choice of stores and a lack of new floorspace in the locality’.

6.11 For comparison goods, we can assess the extent of over-trading by applying the amount of retail floorspace in a centre to its turnover, as derived from the household survey. Given the limited comparison draw of any centres outside Northampton, we have undertaken this exercise solely for Northampton town centre and the retail parks.

6.12 Northampton town centre attracts a total turnover of £259.12m from the 11-zone WNCA, and also attracts inflow in the order of £81.4m from the 8 additional zones in the OCA, generating a total turnover of £340.52m. If this turnover is applied to the town centre floorspace figure of 83,825 sq.m net, it shows that the town centre achieves a turnover of £4,062 per sq.m. This can be considered a below average turnover. RTP’s recent update of the West Midlands Regional Centres study showed that the strongest performing centres in the West Midlands achieved turnovers in the region of £10,000 per sq.m (Birmingham), whilst centres more comparable to the role and function of Northampton achieved per sq.m turnovers of £7,066 per sq.m (Wolverhampton), £7,652 per sq.m (Hanley) and £7,947 per sq.m (Telford). This indicates that Northampton town centre is therefore under-trading by some degree, with comparison retailers achieving a lower turnover per sq.m than might be expected for a centre of the size and function of Northampton. Accordingly, we make no allowance for the over-trading of comparison goods stores in the quantitative need tabulations.

per annum, respectively (as set out in Appendix 4 of Experian’s Retail Planner Briefing Note 7.1), which equates to a ratio of 37.9 per cent for comparison goods and 46.2 per cent for convenience goods.



6.13 Conversely, there is considerable evidence to suggest that Northampton’s retail parks are over-trading. There is approximately 80,000 sq.m net of comparison goods out-of-centre retail floorspace in Northampton (a near-identical amount to the town centre). Based on the household survey-derived turnovers, it is apparent that the retail parks in Northampton are trading significantly higher than would be expected from a typical retail park, which would be akin to £3,000 per sq.m. However, the over-trading of out-of-centre floorspace should not be included in the quantitative need tabulations, as the ‘freeing up’ of capacity to support additional floorspace in these locations is contrary to national planning policy guidance and the established retail hierarchy of the West Northamptonshire area.

Step 5: Quantitative need 6.14 Table 6 summarises the quantitative need for centres within West Northamptonshire (i.e.

the West Northamptonshire JPU administrative area only) for the study period to 2026, and is set out as follows:

• Row A sets out the total population of the SA at each of the interval periods: 2010, 2016, 2021 and 2026.

• Row B sets out the total comparison goods expenditure available to residents of the WNCA for each of these periods, having made an allowance for special forms of trading.

• Row C shows the proportion of expenditure, in monetary terms, which is retained by centres within the West Northamptonshire administrative area. Expenditure which flows to centres within the WNCA but outside the administrative boundaries (most notably, Market Harborough and Buckingham) is removed from this figure. Row D expresses this amount of retained expenditure in percentage terms.

• Row E shows the amount of expenditure which ‘leaks’ to destinations outside West Northamptonshire and is the product of Row B less Row C.

• Rows F and G show the amount of inflow into the WNCA from outside the catchment area boundaries. This is informed by the household survey results, and is the residual expenditure attracted to destinations within the WNCA (predominantly Northampton town centre and retail parks) from the Outer Catchment Area. According to the household survey, this represents approximately 10 per cent of the overall turnover of these centres, equivalent to £81.4m in 2010, which remains static over the study timeframe.

• Row G is the product of Row C and Row F, and shows the total turnover of comparison goods stores in the WNCA, which is £813.8m in 2010. This figure is held static throughout the period to 2026, because the growth in floorspace efficiency of existing retailers is accounted for separately in Row H.

• The Summary Table at the foot of Table 6 shows firstly the initial surplus in the WNCA over the period to 2026. This represents the growth in retained expenditure by centres in West Northamptonshire over the study period. From this initial surplus, the claims on the capacity are then subtracted (in this case, these represent solely growth in floorspace efficiency as there are no committed retail developments). Row



J shows the residual expenditure, in monetary terms, to support new comparison goods floorspace. There is a total of £115.3m expenditure available by 2016, and £495.3m by 2026.

• Row K sets out the turnover per sq.m which is used to translate the residual expenditure shown in Row J to floorspace requirements. For the purposes of the comparison goods assessment, we have utilised a turnover of £5,000 per sq.m, which is considered reflective of the likely average per sq.m turnover of the main centres in West Northamptonshire. This increases throughout the period to 2026 in line with the figures set out at Table 6.2.

• Finally, Row L shows the comparison goods floorspace requirement for the West Northamptonshire JPU area for the period to 2026. It shows that in the first interval period, to 2016, there is a requirement for 21,378 sq.m net additional comparison goods floorspace. By 2021, this requirement has increased to 49,386 sq.m net, and by 2026 the requirement is 81,183 sq.m net. It is advised that the focus of the requirements should be on those in the short term, and those post-2021 should be treated as indicative, and subject to regular monitoring and review throughout the study period.

• Using a gross: net ratio of 70 per cent, Row M translates the net floorspace requirements set out above to gross floorspace.

6.15 Tables 7a to 7d repeat the exercise set out above, but disaggregate the findings by each of the West Northamptonshire authorities:

• Table 7a shows that the majority of the floorspace requirement identified in Table 6 will be directed towards centres in Northampton Borough. This is to be expected as Northampton is the largest population centre, and one which is likely to experience significant growth over the course of the study period. Accordingly it is the location which will experience the greatest amount of expenditure growth to support new floorspace. Table 6a shows that there is a short-term requirement of 19,629 sq.m net floorspace for Northampton by 2016, increasing to 45,206 sq.m net by 2021 and 74,073 sq.m net by 2026. The focus of this requirement should be on developing and strengthening centres within the existing established retail hierarchy.

• Tables 7b and 7c set out the comparison floorspace requirements for Daventry District. Table 6c identifies that, based on current market shares, a requirement of 4,676 sq.m net additional comparison goods floorspace arises, including a requirement of 1,035 sq.m net in the period to 2016. Table 6d presents an increased market share model, which takes into account the proposed town centre redevelopment scheme, which, if it comes forward, can be expected to provide for an improvement in comparison goods expenditure retained in the town, reducing leakage to centres such as Rugby and Banbury. Under this scenario the requirement for Daventry District increases to 7,649 sq.m net, including a short-term requirement of 3,505 sq.m net.



• Table 7d shows the floorspace requirements for South Northamptonshire District, which amount to 2,435 sq.m net over the study period to 2026, and 715 sq.m net by 2016.

Step 6: Scenario Testing 6.16 The comparison goods capacity exercise assumes that market shares of destinations in

West Northamptonshire will remain static throughout the study period, and does not plan for an increase in the aggregate retention rate over the period to 2026 (apart from, at the district level, an increase in the retention rate in Daventry). As noted above, centres within the WNJPU administrative area retain 64 per cent of the total available comparison expenditure. At a sub regional level, given the scale of competition and overlapping catchments, this market share is expected.

6.17 Whilst there is potentially scope for a short term increase in market share to accommodate new development, this is likely to be off-set by competing developments. Therefore, we consider that there is limited justification for a permanent increase in the retention rate for West Northamptonshire above this level.

6.18 An important challenge for the JPU over the course of the study period will be to redistribute the retained expenditure growth in order to benefit its network of town and district centres. Whilst we recognise the important role of retail parks, particularly in Northampton, we expect the majority of expenditure growth should be directed to Northampton town centre. Therefore, it will be important for centres to improve their market share vis-à-vis out of centre destinations.



7 QUANTITATIVE NEED FOR CONVENIENCE GOODS FLOORSPACE Methodology

7.1 The methodological approach to forecasting quantitative need for convenience goods follows the same steps as for comparison goods. The approach in this respect is set out at paragraph 6.1 of Section 6. This section should be read in conjunction with quantitative comparison need tabulations, which are set out at Appendix 1 of Volume 3 of the study, and the tables are structured in the same order as for the comparison tabulations, summarised at paragraph 6.2. We do not undertake any scenario testing for convenience goods floorspace, because this is a much more localised activity, and therefore there is highly limited scope for the catchment area to improve its market share vis-à-vis other surrounding centres. The exception to this is for Daventry, where we model an increasing retention rate scenario due to the current relatively low retention rate of convenience goods expenditure in the District.

Step 1: Population and expenditure growth 7.2 Table 7.1 summarises the growth in population and the ‘pot’ of convenience goods

expenditure growth.

Table 7.1 — Summary of population and convenience expenditure growth in WNCA

Reporting year Population of WNCA Total available convenience expenditure £m (including SFT discount)

2010 413,734 711.27 2016 424,881 746.39 2021 440,689 797.66 2026 456,266 850.39

Source: Table 1 and Table 3b, Appendix 1

Step 2: Assessment of existing retail provision 7.3 Step 2 of the quantitative need assessment requires the assessment of existing retail

provision in the WNCA, to establish the current market shares, the level of expenditure which is being retained within the WNCA, and the distribution of this retained expenditure between existing retail destinations. This exercise has been undertaken in Section 5 of this study which found that:

• All foodstores within the WNCA achieved a retention rate of 86.7 per cent (as part of a SA-wide retention rate of 91.0 per cent);

• Within this, foodstores which are solely within the West Northamptonshire JPU administrative area (i.e. removing any foodstores which form part of the WNCA but fall outside the boundaries of Northampton Borough and Daventry and South Northamptonshire Districts) achieve a retention rate of 76.9 per cent;



• A number of foodstores within the WNCA appear to trade extremely strongly, most notably Morrisons at Kettering Road, Northampton; Tesco Extra stores at Mereway and at Weston Favell District Centre, and Sainsbury’s at Gambrel Road, Northampton;

• The ten most popular foodstore destinations within the WNCA account for 55.0 per cent of the total available convenience expenditure.

Step 3: Claims on Expenditure Growth 7.4 The next step is to make an allowance for ‘claims’ on the growth of retained expenditure.. In

addition to Special Forms of Trading discount (as set out in Section 4) we again need to take into account both commitments to new floorspace, and sales density growth, as further claims on expenditure.

Commitments to new convenience goods floorspace

7.5 We are aware of only one commitment for additional convenience goods retail floorspace upwards of 200 sq.m net, which is the recently-permitted Aldi store at Old Greens Norton Road, Towcester, which accounts for a ‘claim’ of £4.8m12.

Sales density growth

7.6 In making an allowance for growth in floorspace efficiency, we adopted the floorspace efficiency changes set out in Table 7.2 below. As with comparison goods, the floorspace efficiency changes are tied to the convenience goods expenditure growth projections.

Table 7.2 — Sales density growth rates for convenience goods

Interval period Convenience goods sales density growth %

2010-2016 0.26% per annum 2016-2021 0.30% per annum 2021-2026 0.30% per annum

Step 4: Overtrading 7.7 In assessing over-trading of convenience stores, we have compared the turnover of each

foodstore within the WNCA which attracts a turnover of more than £10.0m with the ‘benchmark’ turnover that store would be expected to achieve if it was trading at operator average turnover per sq.m rates. The results of this exercise indicate an aggregate position of overtrading by foodstores within the WNCA in the region of £64.90m (2010). This suggests there is considerable suppressed requirement for additional convenience floorspace on over-trading grounds alone within the WNCA. Over-trading is particularly prevalent at the following stores:

• Morrisons, Kettering Road, Northampton (overtrading by £38.6m against benchmark13 turnover);

12 Turnover of proposed store sourced from South Northamptonshire District Council planning committee report.



• Sainsbury’s, Gambrel Road, Northampton (overtrading by £20.2m);

• Asda, Kingsthorpe District Centre, Northampton (overtrading by £8.8m); and

• Tesco, Brackley (overtrading by £8.0m)

7.8 This overtrading is included in the summary convenience goods capacity tabulations (Tables 11 to and 12a to 12b of Appendix 1). The effect of including the over-trading is to generate additional latent capacity in the base year. When presenting need growth in timeframe bands, it is assumed that this capacity will be met in the 2010-2016 timeframe.

Step 5: Quantitative need 7.9 Table 11 summarises the quantitative need for centres within West Northamptonshire

(excluding those parts of the WNCA outside the JPU area) for the study period to 2026, and is set out as follows:

• Row A sets out the total population of the WNCA at each of the interval periods: 2010, 2016, 2021 and 2026.

• Row B sets out the total convenience goods expenditure available to residents of the WNCA for each of these periods, having made an allowance for special forms of trading;

• Row C shows the proportion of expenditure, in monetary terms, which is retained by foodstores within the West Northamptonshire administrative area. Expenditure which flows to foodstores within the WNCA but outside the administrative boundaries (i.e., Market Harborough and Buckingham) are removed from this figure. Row D expresses this amount of retained expenditure in percentage terms.

• Row E shows the amount of expenditure which ‘leaks’ to destinations outside West Northamptonshire and is the product of Row B less Row C.

• Row F shows that no allowance is made for inflow of convenience goods expenditure into the WNCA from the wider OCA. This is because convenience goods shopping is a more localised activity, and residents are not willing, in most cases, to travel to higher order centres in order to undertake food shopping. Therefore convenience shopping patterns are predominantly self-contained. Row F also makes allowance for the over-trading of existing foodstores within the WNCA which amounts to £64.9m in 2010.

• Rows G and H show ‘claims’ on the initial expenditure surplus, which are improvements in retailer floorspace efficiency (Row G), which account for a claim of £8.5m by 2016, and £25.4m by 2026, and committed convenience retail developments (namely the approved Aldi store at Towcester) (Row H).

13 It is likely that some of the over-trading of this store may be owing to respondents to the household survey confusing the Morrisons store with the company’s second store in Northampton at Victoria Promenade. Nevertheless it is clear that, even allowing for this confusion, there is evidence that the store is ovetrading.



• The Summary Table at the foot of Table 11 shows firstly the initial surplus in the WNCA over the period to 2026. This represents the growth in retained expenditure by centres in West Northamptonshire over the study period. From this initial surplus, the claims on the capacity are then subtracted. Row I then shows the residual expenditure, in monetary terms, to support additional convenience goods floorspace in the WNCA. There is a total of £64.90m immediately available in the 2010 base year, on account of the identified overtrading of the foodstores within the WNCA. By 2016 the surplus expenditure increases to £79.07mm, and to £142.32m by 2026.

• Row J sets out the turnover per sq.m which is used to translate the residual expenditure shown in Row I to floorspace requirements. A turnover figure of £12,546 per sq.m is adopted for the 2010 base year, as this represents the average floorspace turnover of the four major supermarket retailers (Asda, Morrisons, Sainsbury’s and Tesco). This figure increases throughout the period to 2026 in line with the figures set out at Table 7.2 to reflect the improvements in floorspace efficiency.

• Finally, Row K shows the convenience goods floorspace requirement for the West Northamptonshire JPU area for the period to 2026. It shows that there is an immediate requirement of 5,173 sq.m net in order to alleviate the existing over-trading. By 2016 the requirement increases to 6,206 sq.m net, and further to 8,491 sq.m net by 2021 and 10,840 sq.m net by 2026. Again we advise that post-2021 forecasts should be treated as indicative, and subject to regular monitoring and review throughout the study period.

• Using a gross: net ratio of 65 per cent, Row L translates the net floorspace requirements set out above to gross floorspace.

7.10 Tables 12a to 12d proceed to repeat the exercise set out above, but disaggregate the findings by each of the West Northamptonshire authorities, as follows:

• Table 12a shows that Northampton Borough has a requirement for an additional 4,435 sq.m net floorspace in the immediate term, increasing to 5,536 sq.m net by 2016, and 9,014 sq.m net by 2026.

• Tables 12b and 12c set out the convenience floorspace requirements for Daventry District. As with comparison goods, we have made provision for improvements to the retail offer in Daventry in Table 6d. The requirement thus ranges from 686 sq.m net over the period to 2026 (static retention, Table 12b) to 2,418 sq.m net (increasing retention, Table 12c).

• Table 12d shows the floorspace requirements for South Northamptonshire District, which amount to 1,140sq.m net over the study period to 2026, including an immediate requirement of 598 sq.m net to address overtrading.



8 QUALITATIVE NEED FOR RETAIL FLOORSPACE

Methodology

8.1 In the PPS4 plan making policies (i.e. policies EC2-EC8) there is one fundamental change from PPS6. PPS4 now awards equal weight to both quantitative and qualitative needs. Therefore, there is less focus on a specific floorspace output and there is more flexibility to plan for different levels of growth if supported by qualitative factors.

8.2 Policy EC1.4d states that when assessing qualitative need, local planning authorities should assess whether there is distribution of shopping services sufficient to allow genuine choice to meet the needs of the whole community. It also states that local planning authorities should take into account the degree to which shops may be overtrading and whether there is a need to increase competition and retail mix.

8.3 CLG’s practice guidance provides further detail on what represents qualitative need. Since it is a subjective concept, a number of factors can apply. But the practice guidance outlines five frequently identified factors, namely:

gaps in existing provision; consumer choice and competition; overtrading; location specific issues; the quality of the existing provision.

8.4 The assessments of qualitative need should take these factors into account. Therefore, we rely on the our assessment of the existing network of centres (Section 3), the analysis of spending patterns (Section 5) and other data relevant to the above five factors.

Gaps in Provision 8.5 The practice guidance explains that such an assessment involves the analysis of patterns

of retail provision, taking account of retail catchments and levels of accessibility. In assessing whether there are any gaps in provision, the spending patterns for West Northamptonshire have been interrogated for both comparison and convenience shopping (as explained in detail at Section 5). This focuses first on the wider West Northamptonshire sub-region, before a more detailed interrogation by local authority (NBC, DDC and SNDC) in undertaken.

Comparison Shopping

8.6 Across the WNCA, the comparison goods market share of JPU destinations is some 63.9 per cent. The majority of comparison goods leakage from these zones is spent in surrounding centres such as Milton Keynes, Market Harborough and Banbury and is a function of overlapping catchments and the geography of the outer zones (for example zone 1 incorporates Market Harborough itself). Turning to the specific local authorities, destinations in NBC achieve a market share of 57.2 per cent, whilst those in DDC and SNDC achieve a market share of 4.3 per cent and 2.2 per cent respectively. These market shares are consistent with the existing role of centres in the three local authorities, with



Northampton town centre and surrounding retail parks being the focus of retail activity in the sub-region. In our view, there no clear sub-regional gaps in comparison goods shopping provision.

8.7 The data from the survey allows a more fine grained analysis of comparison goods shopping patterns. In respect of market share achieved by NBC destinations, Northampton town centre achieves a market share of 22.6 per cent. Smaller district and local centre attract proportionately lower market shares, with Weston Favell attracting a market share of 2.0 per cent for example. However, the largest share of NBC comparison goods spending from the West Northamptonshire zones are the retail parks and standalone out-of-centre foodstores such as Tesco at Mereway that achieve a combined share of 27.3 per cent (some 3 percentage points higher than the town centre).

8.8 Taking this exercise further, it is possible to extract the specific market share for NBC destinations in zones 4, 5, 6 and 7 (i.e. the best fit zones for the borough). The total comparison goods market share of NBC destinations in these four zones is 87.5 per cent. Breaking this down, the shares for Northampton town centre, the district centres and other destinations, and the retail parks is 33.4 per cent, 16.4 per cent and 37.7 per cent respectively. Therefore, at both a sub-regional level and a more local level, the dominant destination for comparison goods spending is the retail parks (combined) surrounding Northampton. This indicates that the under-performance of Northampton town centre vis-à-vis the surrounding retail parks is a potential qualitative deficiency.

8.9 The sub-regional comparison goods market shares for DDC and SNDC is much more localised and is a consequence of the existing role and function of Daventry, Towcester and Brackley in the sub-regional network of centres. DDC encompasses the majority of zone 8 and extends into the rural hinterland including zone 2 and parts of zone 1 to the north. Zone 8 is broadly the natural catchment for Daventry and destinations in the district attract a comparison goods market share of some 29.3 per cent of zone 8, with the main leakage destinations Northampton town centre, Rugby and Banbury. To some extent, this leakage is a function of the geography but the data suggests that there is a qualitative opportunity to improve the local comparison shopping provision in Daventry to reduce leakage to other centres at a similar position in the hierarchy.

8.10 The main centres in SNDC are Towcester (zone 9) and Brackley (zone 11), although the district extends to the north to include part of zone 10. Focusing on zones 9 and 11, the combined destinations in SNDC (including Towcester and Brackley) achieve a comparison goods market share of 11 per cent for these two zones, with leakage to Milton Keynes, Banbury, Buckingham and Northampton town centre. On its face this market share seems low, but it must be borne in mind that the area benefits from close linkages to higher order centres and both Towcester and Brackley are at a low level in the sub-regional hierarchy of centres. Nevertheless, there is potentially an opportunity for these SNDC centres to capture a higher proportion of locally derived comparison spending if growth is consistent with the role and function of these centres.



Convenience Shopping

8.11 Convenience shopping is a much more localised activity (i.e. people are less likely to travel longer distances to undertake their food and grocery shopping). Therefore, the localised market share of zones is more important than the wider sub-regional market share. In any event, it is noted that the convenience goods market share of the OCA for centres within West Northamptonshire is some 76.9 per cent and indicates across the sub-region there is no clear gap in convenience shopping provision. The main foodstores within the OCA are presented at Figure 8.1.

Figure 8.1 - Foodstore Provision Plan14

14 Store 6 on the map refers to the Tesco Extra store at Mereway, Northampton.



8.12 As explained in Section 5, there is significant variation across the OCA in respect of localised retention rates with rural zones 2, 3 and 10 displaying low local retention rates due to limited convenience goods provision in these zones. This does not necessarily mean there is a gap in provision, since there are no centres where this money could be spent and the population is dispersed throughout the zones.

8.13 For the zones covering the Northampton urban area, the lowest retention level is 48.2 per cent (zone 5) that points to a possible shortfall of provision within Northampton town centre and is due to the major foodstore in Northampton town centre (namely Sainsbury’s in the Grosvenor Centre) attracting a relatively small market share of 5.9 per cent.

8.14 The localised retention rate in Daventry (63.1 per cent) is also relatively low and suggests that the size of the two main foodstores in Daventry at present (Tesco and Waitrose) do not cater for many residents’ main food shopping requirements; this is reflected in market share being lost to larger stores in Banbury and Rugby. Thus there is a quality opportunity to improve the foodstore provision in Daventry.

8.15 The localised market share for zones 9 and 11 (SNDC) is some 76.2 per cent and 73.1 per cent respectively and is a relatively high level of retention. This indicates that these zones do not suffer any clear gap in convenience shopping provision.

Consumer Choice and Competition 8.16 The practice guidance states that for town centres to remain competitive they need a good

mix of multiple and independent retailers. Using the data collected in the analysis of the existing network of centres, the assessment focuses on whether the existing provision in designated centres provide a critical mass and diversity of retail development to attract customers on a regular basis throughout the year (bearing in mind the position of the centres in the hierarchy).

Comparison Shopping

8.17 Northampton town centre is at the top of the hierarchy of centres and thus is the focus for comparison shopping provision in the sub-region. The performance analysis of Northampton town centre, building on the health check work undertaken in 2009 has identified a series of qualitative deficiencies based consumer choice and competition. Although there is a range of national multiples in the town, there is an absence of high quality comparison goods shops (such as high profile fashion operators) compared to its regional competitors.

8.18 There are six centres in NBC that have been assessed. Due to their position in the hierarchy, as a rule, the comparison offer is more limited to service orientated comparison goods (i.e. health and beauty, household items and hardware) and specialist independent operators. The one exception to this rule in NBC is Weston Favell that has a number of national multiples including a strong clothing representation. Although it is important to ensure there is sufficient service orientated comparison goods offer in the district and local centres, our research has not revealed any clear qualitative deficiency.

8.19 A major feature of the local comparison goods shopping patterns in NBC is the dominance of out of centre retail parks and this indicates an imbalance between the retail provision in



Northampton town centre (and a lesser extent the district and local centres) and the provision in the retail parks. This is a qualitative deficiency in Northampton town centre because, to some extent, there is more choice for comparison goods shopping in out of centre destinations than the town centre itself.

8.20 In Daventry town centre there is a range of comparison goods outlets for all categories. However, there is limited space to meet the demand from the published demand such as Desire by Debenhams (seeking a 22,500 sq.ft gross unit). Therefore, there is a qualitative opportunity to provide stock to meet published demand.

8.21 The comparison goods offer in Towcester and Brackley is more limited and reflective of these centres’ role in the hierarchy and does not necessarily mean there is a qualitative deficiency in respect of consumer choice. However, our analysis of Brackley and Towcester with recourse to the C&P work for SNDC has revealed unbalanced centres with a focus on service uses and there is a potential to improve the balance of retail uses vis-à-vis other town centre uses.


8.22 Qualitative need connected to consumer choice and competition for convenience shopping is measured by the level of access to larger superstores and smaller local and independent stores to ensure there is a range of different destinations for convenience shopping for the local population.

8.23 Focusing first on Northampton town centre, a gap in foodstore provision in the town centre itself has already been identified above. This is due to the relatively small size of the Sainsbury’s store in Northampton town centre itself. Although residents have access to other stores in district and local centres and out of centre destinations, there is a qualitative need to improve the foodstore provision in the town centre to improve choice. Furthermore, the proportion of other smaller convenience outlets in the town centre (such as butchers and greengrocers) is below the national average and thus indicates there is a qualitative need to improve the provision of smaller convenience outlets in the town.

8.24 Turning to the district and local centres, all of the centres in NBC are anchored by a foodstore and include a range of smaller convenience stores such as bakers, butcher and greengrocers. This provides an adequate choice for local residents using these centres and does not represent a clear qualitative need.

8.25 In Daventry, there are foodstores occupied by Tesco, Waitrose and Aldi. However, linked to the relatively low retention level for convenience shopping in zone 8, these stores are small. Consequently local residents are travelling longer distances to undertake their main convenience shopping in larger competing stores. Therefore, there is a qualitative opportunity to improve the convenience provision locally through the extension of one of the foodstores in the town.

8.26 Turning to Towcester and Brackley, both towns are anchored by Waitrose and Tesco stores and thus these stores provide the local main foodstore shopping choice.



Trading Performance 8.27 The existing trading performance from a quantitative perspective is explored in Sections 6

and 7. The practice guidance advises caution in using benchmarks prescriptively. However, Policy EC1.4 of PPS4 states that when assessing qualitative need for retail and leisure uses local planning authorities should take into account the degree to which shops may be overtrading and whether there is a need to increase competition and retail mix. Therefore, we can marry our findings on the trading performance of floorspace in West Northamptonshire with real observed qualitative factors such as overcrowding and congestion in stores. This exercise is undertaken separately for convenience and comparison shopping.

Comparison Shopping

8.28 The assessment of quantitative need for comparison floorspace establishes the 2010 turnover of existing floorspace in the town centres of Northampton, Daventry, Brackley and Towcester, the main retail parks and district and local centres in NBC. It is apparent that the floorspace in Northampton town centre is undertrading vis-à-vis the retail parks, which are trading at turnover levels per sq.m in excess of what would be expected for a typical retail park. This affirms that the current level of retail provision is not adequate, and the town centre is not fulfilling its role as a regional shopping destination adequately. There is potential to improve the trading performance of the town centre , in order to counterbalance the substantial expenditure flows to the retail parks.

8.29 Elsewhere in West Northamptonshire, the only other significant comparison shopping destination outside the Northampton urban area is Daventry town centre, which performs a role and function as a sub-regional shopping destination. Daventry’s role can also be improved, since it currently retains a market share of under 25 per cent of comparison goods spending from its local zone. On this basis the town’s comparison goods floorspace is likely to be undertrading, and there is qualitative need to provide additional comparison goods retail (including larger-format units) in order to improve the offer of the centre and increase expenditure retention.ding performance of


8.30 The assessment of quantitative need for convenience floorspace tests the trading performance of the existing floorspace against benchmarks. This revealed that in aggregate all stores are overtrading at about 17 per cent above company averages. This in part by the higher per capita expenditure for the study area than the national average and the nature of household surveys that over estimate the turnover of larger stores. However, even accounting for these factors, in broad terms the trading performance is higher than normally would be expected.

8.31 In qualitative terms, the question of whether the overtrading of the foodstores represents a need is more difficult to justify. The CLG guidance is that the use of benchmarks should not be treated in isolation and to assess the overtrading position adequately there would need to be detailed evidence collected in respect of the trading performance of each store. This data would typically include regular surveys of queues and checkouts, levels of



parking availability, the level of stock in the store, the layout of the store and the amount of storage space.

8.32 Our performance assessment of the West Northamptonshire centres collected data on qualitative evidence of overtrading, although this was based on a single trip to each of the main foodstores. Our analysis has revealed that all stores are busy and anecdotally we are aware of particular problems of overtrading in the Morrisons (Kettering Road) store and Sainsbury’s (Gambrel Road) stores. On one hand it is considered successful trading of the stores within the centres should be encouraged since linked trip spending will support the trade of other businesses in the town. However, trading performance represent a qualitative factor that can be considered when planning for growth (as explained in our recommendations) and the overtrading turnover could be used to justify growth in town centres.

Location Specific Needs 8.33 CLG’s practice guidance refers to location specific needs and specifically states that the

Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) provide useful measures of deprivation. Furthermore, PPS4 affords more weight to qualitative deficiencies in deprived areas. It is important to understand the IMD for the local geography and its relationship with any qualitative deficiencies, such as a lack of access to certain shops or services.

8.34 The IMD 2007 is based on the small area geography known as Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) and is the most recent dataset available. Each LSOA has between 1,000 and 3,000 people living in it with an average population of 1,500 people. There are 32,482 LSOAs in England. The LSOA ranked 1 by the IMD 2007 is the most deprived, and that ranked 32,482 is the least deprived. Within each LSOA deprivation is measured by seven measures or indicators known as domains. These comprise:

Income deprivation: this domain looks at, amongst other things, the proportion of people in Income Support Households or Child Tax Credit Households.

Employment deprivation: this domain measures the involuntary exclusion of the working age population from the world of work.

Health deprivation and disability: this domain identifies areas with relatively high rates of people who die prematurely or whose quality of life is impaired by poor health or who are disabled.

Education, skills and training deprivation: this domain measures deprivation in educational attainment, skills and training for children, young people and the working age population.

Barriers to housing and services: this domain measures ‘geographical barriers’ to housing and services, as well as ‘wider barriers’ which includes issues such as affordability.

Living environment deprivation: this domain focuses on deprivation with respect to the characteristics of the local environment, both within and beyond the home.



Crime: this domain measures the incidence of recorded crime for four major crime themes, thus representing the occurrence of personal and material victimization at a small area level.

8.35 These seven indicators are then weighted and aggregated into summary measures of deprivation. This data enables an assessment of the zonal position as set out at Table 8.3 and Figure 8.4

Table 8.3 - Zonal IMD scores and ranking Zone Income

Score Employment Score

Health Score

Education Score

Housing Score

Crime Score

Living Score

IMD Score Average IMD Rank

1 0.1 0.1 ‐0.8 11.3 19.3 ‐0.6 8.5 9.8 24,310

2 0.1 0.0 ‐1.0 8.6 20.0 ‐0.7 9.5 7.1 27,426

3 0.1 0.0 ‐0.8 9.2 18.1 ‐0.3 6.4 6.7 27,854

4 0.1 0.1 0.1 34.9 18.5 0.6 15.6 22.5 15,204

5 0.1 0.1 0.2 24.6 16.7 0.8 24.2 22.7 14,313

6 0.2 0.1 0.0 31.3 18.6 1.0 10.0 22.7 14,680

7 0.1 0.1 ‐0.3 21.2 20.7 0.5 9.3 15.4 20,677

8 0.1 0.1 ‐0.6 18.7 20.7 ‐0.1 6.6 12.4 22,379

9 0.1 0.0 ‐1.2 8.0 24.6 ‐0.7 12.4 7.8 26,544

10 0.1 0.0 ‐1.2 9.5 20.1 ‐0.7 9.5 6.3 28,258

11 0.1 0.0 ‐1.3 8.3 21.9 ‐1.0 8.9 6.2 28,224

England Average

0.2 0.1 0.0 21.7 21.7 0.0 21.7 21.7 16,241

Source: The English Indices of Deprivation 2007



Figure 8.4 - IMD Heat Plan

8.36 These IMD data indicate that in general terms outside Northampton Borough core zones (zone 12-15) there is limited evidence of deprivation, other than some localised deprivation to the east and west of Daventry. There is more marked evidence of deprivation in zones 4, 5 and 6 and parts of 7 surrounding Northampton with three of the four zones suffering an average IMD rank of below the national average. More fine grained analysis will be necessary if there are areas that suffer qualitative deficiencies that deserve additional



weight than elsewhere. However, this evidence proves that it is important that Northampton town centre and the surrounding network of district centres adequately meet the needs of the local population. This is particularly pressing since there is a dominance of shopping in retail parks, which typically have poor access by public transport and therefore can isolate the more deprived sections of the community.

Quality of Provision 8.37 The practice guidance states that the quality of provision is highly subjective. The key

issues include the age, condition and layout of existing facilities and whether the facilities meet operators’ requirements or consumer expectations. For West Northamptonshire, it is important that the network of centres are ‘fit for purpose’ for the next 16 years and beyond to meet the planned growth.

Comparison Shopping

8.38 In Northampton town centre, the main shopping centre (Grosvenor Centre) in the town is dated and the town would benefit from investment to improve the retail offer. The town needs a broader range of larger comparison outlets to attract national multiples to the town. The consequence of a poor retail offer in the town centre has been the significant growth of out of centre floorspace as retailers have not been able to find suitable accommodation in the town centre. This is a clear qualitative deficiency for Northampton town centre and should be addressed as soon as possible to ensure Northampton fulfils its role in the sub-region and delivers an improvement to the shopping provision in the town.

8.39 More generally, the comparison shopping stock varies across the sub-region. However, our analysis has not identified any clear qualitative deficiency.


8.40 In Northampton town centre, the only foodstore is the Sainsbury’s store in the Grosvenor Centre and, as discussed above, this shopping centre is dated. The store itself is cramped and is not a modern outlet that foodstore operators now desire. Therefore, there is a qualitative need for an improved foodstore offer in the town centre.

8.41 Outside of Northampton, the only qualitative deficiency that we are aware of concerns the foodstores in Daventry. Both the Tesco and the Waitrose stores are smaller than other competing outlets and therefore, to meet the growing population in the area, there is a qualitative need for a new foodstore in the town.

Summary 8.42 The assessment of qualitative need for West Northamptonshire has revealed the following:

There is an under-performance of Northampton town centre comparison shopping provision vis-à-vis the surrounding retail parks with the aggregate market share of the retail parks higher than the town centre.

There is an opportunity for a further foodstore within Northampton town centre and there is an under provision of convenience floorspace in the town centre.



There is a potential gap in comparison and convenience shopping provision in Daventry and an opportunity to increase its local market share.

Across the sub-region there is evidence that the existing convenience floorspace stock is overtrading, which in broad terms means that there is scope for additional floorspace to improve consumer choice and reduce customer discomfort

It appears that the overtrading is is prominent in the Sainsbury’s at Gambrel Road and Morrison’s at Kettering Road, albeit we expect the performance of the latter of these two stores has been overstated.

There is evidence of deprivation, particularly surrounding Northampton town centre, and this, coupled with the dominance of retail parks, suggests that the more deprived sections of community lack convenient access to shops.

8.43 The retail stock in Northampton town centre is generally dated and is unlikely to remain fit for purpose for the extent of the study period and therefore there is a qualitative need to upgrade the provision.



9 RECOMMENDATIONS Context

9.1 PPS4 provides detailed guidance on the approach local authorities should adopt for promoting competitive town centres and selecting sites for new town centre uses. In the context of this study and the strategic direction for the centres within West Northamptonshire, the following are considered:

Define a hierarchy of centres and make choices about which centres will accommodate any identified need for growth in town centre uses (Policy EC3.1b.i);

Plan for a strong retail mix so that the range and quality of the comparison and convenience offer meet the requirements of the local catchment area, recognising that smaller shops can significantly enhance the character and vibrancy of a centre (Policy EC4.1b);

Identify a range of sites to meet the need for additional town centre uses and allocate sufficient sites in DPDs to meet at least the first five years of identified need (Policies EC5.1 and EC5.5).

9.2 PPS12’s test of soundness requires firstly that the chosen strategy is the most appropriate, when considered against reasonable alternatives and, secondly, that the chosen strategy is effective and deliverable. To assist the JPU partner authorities and to inform considerations of reasonable alternative strategies, we have outlined potential policy options.

9.3 When assessing strategies for meeting retail and leisure needs, those that would clearly not accord with national and regional policy have been dismissed. Such inappropriate strategies include trying to meet most of the need in out-of-centre retail parks or suggesting significant growth for any of the centres that would not be commensurate with their scale. In addition, we consider that all reasonable strategies should acknowledge our suggested revision of the hierarchy of centres.

Need for Retail Floorspace

9.4 The quantitative need for additional floorspace has been addressed in Sections 6 and 7, whilst qualitative factors have been addressed in Section 8. The quantitative need for comparison goods floorspace is summarised in Table 9.1 and for convenience goods floorspace in Table 9.2. These figures are presented cumulatively. We award most weight to the figures to 2016, with the least weight to last five years of the quantitative need between 2021 and 2026 and therefore the 2026 column should be treated as indicative only.



Table 9.1 - Summary of Quantitative Need for Comparison Floorspace

Quantitative Need – Constant Market Share unless stated 2016 2021 2026

West Northamptonshire (Global) Net 21,400 49,400 81,200 West Northamptonshire (Global) Gross 30,500 70,600 116,000 Northampton Borough Net 19,600 45,200 74,100 Northampton Borough Gross 28,000 64,600 105,800 Daventry District Net 1,000 2,600 4,700 Daventry District Gross 1,500 3,800 6,700 Daventry District Net – Increased Market Share 3,500 5,500 7,600 Daventry District Gross – Increased Market Share 5,000 7,800 10,900 South Northamptonshire District - Net 700 1,500 2,400 South Northamptonshire District - Gross 1,000 2,200 3,500

Note: Floorspace need is presented cumulatively, i.e. 21,400 sqm net by 2016, increasing to 49,400 by 2021;

data for the timeframe bands can be found within the study appendices

9.5 This indicates that across West Northamptonshire there is a quantitative need for some 21,400 sq.m net of comparison goods floorspace by 2016, increasing to 49,400 by 2021 to account for natural expenditure growth and population growth. This is based on a policy neutral assumption of constant market shares and the data are divided by local authority area, with NBC claiming the largest proportion. To allow for an improvement in the comparison provision in Daventry and to respond to the growth agenda, we have included an increased market share scenario that means there is a quantitative need for 3,500 sq.m net of comparison floorspace in Daventry by 2016 increasing to 5,500 sq.m net by 2021.

Table 9.2 - Summary of Quantitative Need for Convenience Floorspace (including overtrading)

Quantitative Need – Constant Market Share unless stated 2016 2021 2026

West Northamptonshire (Global) Net 6,200 8,500 10,800 West Northamptonshire (Global) Gross 9,500 13,100 16,700 Northampton Borough Net 5,500 7,300 9,000 Northampton Borough Gross 8,500 11,200 13,900 Daventry District Net 100 300 700 Daventry District Gross 100 500 1,100 Daventry District Net – Increased Market Share 1,700 2,100 2,400 Daventry District Gross – Increased Market Share 2,700 3,200 3,700 South Northamptonshire District - Net 600 900 1,100 South Northamptonshire District - Gross 900 1,400 1,800

Note: Floorspace need is presented cumulatively, i.e. 21,400 sqm net by 2016, increasing to 49,400 by 2021;

data for the timeframe bands can be found within the study appendices

9.6 The quantitative need for convenience floorspace is driven, in part, by evidence of overtrading in the base year (2010) – particularly in stores surrounding Northampton. Incorporating this overtrading reveals there is a quantitative need for some 6,200 sq.m net of convenience floorspace in the sub-region by 2016, increasing to 10,800 sq.m by 2021.



This is a substantial need and could potentially accommodate up for two medium sized superstores15 across West Northamptonshire in the next five years years.

9.7 The majority of the quantitative need for convenience floorspace is directed to Northampton Borough. However, we have tested an increase in market share in Daventry District which would see an increase in the amount of convenience money spent locally. Under this scenario, there would be a quantitative need for some 1,700 sq.m net of convenience floorspace by 2016, increasing to 2,100 sq.m net in 2021. This is sufficient for a large supermarket16 in Daventry to stem long distance expenditure leakage and meet the area’s growing population.

9.8 Qualitatively, our assessment revealed the following messages:

There is an under-performance of Northampton town centre comparison shopping provision vis-à-vis the surrounding retail parks with the aggregate market share of the retail parks higher than the town centre.

There is an opportunity for a further foodstore within Northampton town centre and there is an under provision of convenience floorspace in the town centre.

There is a potential gap in comparison and convenience shopping provision in Daventry and an opportunity to increase its local market share.

Across the sub-region there is evidence that the existing convenience stock is overtrading, particularly to both the west and east of Northampton, which can potentially be considered an indicator of an under-suppy of floorpsace and if left unchecked throughout the study timeframe could result in consumer choice suffering

There is evidence of deprivation, particularly surrounding Northampton town centre, and this, coupled with the dominance of retail parks, suggests that the more deprived sections of community lack convenient access to shops.

The retail stock in Northampton town centre is generally dated and is unlikely to remain fit for purpose for the extent of the study period and therefore there is a qualitative need to upgrade the provision.

9.9 This study has robustly considered indicators of both quantitative and qualitative need and has identified specific quantitative pressures (in terms of floorspace needs) as well as qualitative indicators that should be taken into account when planning for growth. Our spatial recommendations above how these needs could be met are explained below.

Existing Hierarchy of Centres

9.10 In Section 3, we review the hierarchy of centres and make recommendations on their existing position in the network of centres in West Northamptonshire. We draw particular attention to the following points:

15 Superstore defined in PPS4 as above 2,500 sqm trading area 16 Supermarket defined in PPS4 as self service store will less than 2,500 sqm trading floorspace



Northampton town centre clearly remains the highest order centre in West Northamptonshire, although there may be merit in re-terming Northampton as a ‘regional town centre’;

The role and function of Northampton is clearly supported by the market towns of Daventry, Towcester and Brackley. Of these, Daventry has a wider comparison and services offer, and therefore acts as a sub-regional centre, and on this basis there may be merit in distinguishing between Daventry and Brackley/Towcester in a hierarchy of centres for West Northamptonshire;

Weston Favell and Kingsthorpe both perform clear functions as District Centres, and should be recognised accordingly in a hierarchy of centres. None of the other centres in Northampton (or elsewhere in West Northamptonshire) perform a similar role and function, and on this basis it is considered the remaining centres reviewed in Section 3 should be defined as local centres.

Spatial Recommendations

9.11 In formulating spatial recommendations, we have carefully considered the network of centres, policy direction in the development plan and PPS4, planned levels of housing growth across the sub-region and the quantitative and qualitative need identified above. The areas for growth surrounding Northampton are outlined in Figure 9.1 below.

Figure 9.1 - Growth Areas in Northampton



9.12 In respect of Northampton, it is noted that the that PPS4 advises that it is not necessarily appropriate to plan for further growth at existing successful out of centre locations where these locations do not meet other key policy objectives. It is also important to consider the geography of expenditure growth across the sub-region. To assist in this consideration, we have summarised the level of population growth by zone, the comparison and convenience expenditure growth by zone, the retention level for convenience goods and the level of overtrading.

Table 9.3 - Summary of Growth

Zone Zone name

Pop. Growth 2008- 2026

Comp. Exp. Growth 2010-2026 (£m)

Conv. Exp. Growth 2010-2026 (£m)

Conv. Zonal share by Zone (%)

1 Market Harborough 2,327 58.36 7.68 76.0 2 West of Northampton 3,097 57.65 9.02 3.9 3 North of Northampton 5,448 70.15 13.67 14.0 4 Northampton West 5,346 82.58 14.05 62.0 5 Northampton Central & North 5,346 134.54 18.72 48.2 6 Northampton East & Weston Favell 5,346 123.47 17.17 74.5 7 Northampton South 6,692 106.57 17.38 68.0 8 Daventry 5,075 113.49 16.70 63.1 9 Towcester 3,282 62.28 9.36 76.1 10 South of Northampton 730 25.73 2.91 7.3 11 Brackley & Buckingham 3,052 105.94 12.47 73.1

9.13 Looking first at the total quantitative need for comparison floorspace in West Northamptonshire, we have considered the appropriate destination for this growth. Spatially, Northampton town centre is at the top of the hierarchy and is the location for the majority of growth in West Northamptonshire. Therefore, we expect the majority of the comparison floorspace need identified to be directed Northampton town centre. The priority, in policy terms, should be to encourage the delivery of comparison floorspace growth to Northampton town centre in order to address the qualitative needs in the town.

9.14 Outside Northampton town centre, we find no evidence of any clear gaps in comparison retail provision, with residents provided with a range of comparison shopping, as well as retail parks. Significant or substantive new comparison led floorspace applications that compete directly with Northampton town centre and would jeopardise investment in retail led proposals for Northampton town centre should be resisted. The JPU may wish to consider specific local policy measures to address this issue and provide a strong policy stance on this matter.

9.15 In respect of convenience floorspace, there is a quantitative need for about two new medium sized superstores across the sub-region by 2016, and potentially a third by 2021. Furthermore, the evidence of overtrading indicates that this should be brought forward early in the plan period in order to improve consumer choice and relieve overtrading of existing foodstores. Subject to compliance with PPS4 and development plan policies, this



additional floorspace can either be through a number of small convenience orientated extensions to existing foodstores, or new stand alone stores.

9.16 Addressing Northampton first, we consider that a foodstore should be actively considered in a town centre location. There is a clear qualitative deficiency and a new foodstore would encourage linked trips with the town centre and relieve overtrading observed. In respect of convenience floorspace growth outside the town centre, this should be carefully controlled and tied to areas of housing growth as shown in Figure 9.1 above. Should new ‘centres’ be promoted alongside housing growth, its scale should be consistent with the new housing it is serving. It is important that any policy support for growth in district centres or provision of new centres are pre-conditioned through policy to ensure a range of services is provided consistent with the role and function of district centres as defined by PPS4.

Policy Recommendations

9.17 The terms of reference for this study include two additional requirements for policy advice. This comprises advising on floorspace thresholds for impact assessments and providing a strategic policy approach to retail provision in rural areas. Each matter is addressed separately.

Floorspace Thresholds

9.18 PPS4 allows local authorities flexibility to define any locally important impacts which should be tested and our terms of reference require advice on floorspace thresholds for edge of centre and out of centre locations that will be the subject of an impact assessment. The standard in PPS4 is 2,500 sqm gross floorspace (see EC14.4). However, our study has revealed some very specific circumstances in the sub-region that potentially support an alternative threshold.

9.19 Northampton in particular has suffered a significant level of out of centre floorspace growth in recent years to such an extent that the combined share of out of centre floorspace is actually higher than the town centre market share. Furthermore, the cumulative outcome of a number of smaller schemes could potentially cause a detrimental impact. Therefore, we propose a reduced threshold of 1,000 sqm gross. There may be a scope for a lower threshold in the smaller South Northamptonshire centres, as due to the lower turnover of these centres, any impact on the centres will be proportionately greater. On this basis, the JPU may wish to give consideration to adopting a threshold of 500 sq.m gross for the South Northamptonshire centres of Brackley and Towcester.

Rural Retail Provision

9.20 Policy EC13 of PPS4 establishes a generic development management policy for determining planning applications affecting shops and services in local centres and villages. Taking a more strategic view, we suggest a policy approach to rural retail provision that enables each application to be determined on its merits, which provides sufficient flexibility in order to ensure that advantage can be taken of opportunities to improve the performance of retail centres in rural area. We do not advise that the JPU should plan for any site specific retail development in rural areas within DPDs. However any small scale retail



should be treated on their merits, but encouraged if they contribute to the vitality and viability of the centres and are integral to the commercial frontages. Policy considerations could include:

Population size of the settlement in relation to the number of facilities that are currently provided.

Distance from other equivalent facilities in centres at the same level of the settlement hierarchy and distance from centres at a higher level of the settlement hierarchy.

If a change of use application, the location of the shop which is subject to the application in relation to the other shops and facilities within the centre: i.e. is the facility part of a dense core of shops / facilities, or is it one of a number of facilities which are strung out along the main road?

Summary of Recommendations

9.21 Drawing together the above commentary, our key recommendations for future policy documents for the JPU are as follows:

Ensure that development plan documents across West Northamptonshire respond positively to a quantitative need for 21,400 sqm net of comparison floorspace and 6,200 sqm net of convenience floorspace by 2016 and in the longer term, consider options for growth allowing for the quantitative need to increase to 49,400 sqm net of comparison goods floorspace and 8,500 sqm net of convenience floorspace by 2021.

Direct higher order comparison goods floorspace of up to 19,600 sqm net of comparison floorspace by 2016 to Northampton town centre to meet its qualitative deficiencies to ensure that the centre responds to competition from out of centre floorspace in Northampton and other regional centres. Improve and develop the retail circuit, ensuring sufficient connectivity and integration between the different elements of the centre.

Limit the amount of comparison floorspace developed outside Northampton town centre to ensure that investment in town centres is not jeopardised. However, modest growth that improves the retail stock in designated centres and allows convenient access to retail from local residents should be encouraged, subject to the growth being of an appropriate scale to the centre in question and compliance with development management policies in PPS4 and the development plan.

Consider the options for new foodstore growth in Northampton town centre and to serve the planned urban extensions, ensuring that expanded or remodelled district centres are controlled by policy pre-conditions that ensure a range of retail and service floorspace.

Allow for more modest growth in Daventry of up to 3,500 sqm net of comparison floorspace and 1,700 sqm net of convenience floorspace by 2016 to allow an improvement in the area’s market share and to respond to the local growth agenda.



Allow modest growth in the centres of Towcester and Brackley that are consistent with their role in the hierarchy of centres and allow the balance between retail and service used to be addressed.

Monitoring

9.22 This study provides the JPU authorities with a set of floorspace requirements for the next 16 years, albeit with a caveat that limited weight should be afforded – in our view - to the final five years of this timeframe. To establish whether the requirements for new floorspace (by type) are being met and more generally to monitor the performance of and changes to the main centres in the West Northamptonshire area, local authorities should monitor:

▫ Town centre planning permissions - by type, amount (sqm gross and net) and location;

▫ Completions – by type, amount and location; ▫ Changes of use that occur without the need for express permission; ▫ Vacancies; ▫ Charity uses (number and location); and ▫ Health checks

9.23 The monitoring recommended above is relatively straightforward and should be conducted on a rolling basis for items (i) and (ii) and annually or every two years for items (iii) to (vi). Time series data can thus be produced and continually updated, starting with this study. Contingent on the timetabling of key development plan documents, such updating will prove to be valuable when this evidence is tested at examination in public.

9.24 The options and recommendations set out in this report may need to be adjusted, in the future, due to changing market conditions, demographic changes and the impact of developments elsewhere. They may also need to be adjusted if standard assumptions, in particular those relating to expenditure growth and e-tailing, change. The role of monitoring is crucial in highlighting changes in the assumptions that underpin this study and we recommend regular monitoring.

Table 1

Population of study area, 2008-2026

West Northamptonshire Catchment Area

Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 Zone 11

WNCA

Total

Population 2008 26,976 22,453 23,635 36,265 63,778 63,043 43,735 46,866 25,174 12,261 46,239 410,425

Population 2010* 27,255 22,703 23,885 36,648 64,161 63,426 44,118 47,116 25,474 12,411 46,539 413,734

Population 2016* 27,992 22,965 24,260 38,298 65,811 65,076 45,768 47,378 26,602 12,855 47,877 424,881

Population 2021* 28,582 24,298 27,013 40,004 67,517 66,782 47,848 49,172 27,371 12,935 49,166 440,689

Population 2026* 29,303 25,550 29,183 41,611 69,124 68,389 50,427 51,941 28,456 12,991 49,291 456,266

Population growth 2008-26 2,327 3,097 5,548 5,346 5,346 5,346 6,692 5,075 3,282 730 3,052 45,841

Outer Catchment Area

Zone A Zone B Zone C Zone D Zone E Zone F Zone G Zone H OCA Total

Population 2008 27,362 24,816 47,647 14,493 64,591 54,538 11,554 33,102 278,103

Population 2010* 28,823 26,141 50,191 15,177 66,883 57,112 11,964 34,233 290,524

Population 2016* 30,824 27,955 53,675 15,896 70,676 59,817 12,642 34,649 306,134

Population 2021* 32,006 29,028 55,734 16,291 74,899 61,303 13,398 35,237 317,896

Population 2026* 33,172 30,085 57,764 16,674 79,974 62,746 14,306 35,916 330,635

Population growth 2008-26 5,810 5,269 10,117 2,181 15,383 8,208 2,752 2,814 52,532

Notes:

*Estimated population

2008 population is based on MapInfo zonal populations

Population growth forecasts (2010 onwards):

Zone 1: East Midlands Regional Assembly forecasts for Rutland County

Zones 2 to 11 inclusive: linked to anticipated population and housebuilding growth rates shown in WNJPU 'Population and Household Forecasts', October 2010

Zones A to G: North Northampton Joint Planning Unit population projections

Zone H: Milton Keyes Observatory population projections for rural Milton Keynes Borough

Table 2a

Comparison goods per capita expenditure in WNCA, 2008-2026

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

2008 (Actual) 3,119 3,341 3,259 2,908 3,040 2,817 3,074 3,316 3,269 3,215 3,433

2010 (Estimate) 3,131 3,354 3,272 2,920 3,052 2,828 3,086 3,329 3,282 3,228 3,447

2016 (Estimate) 3,813 4,085 3,985 3,555 3,717 3,444 3,758 4,054 3,997 3,931 4,197

2021 (Estimate) 4,486 4,805 4,687 4,182 4,372 4,051 4,421 4,769 4,701 4,624 4,937

2026 (Estimate) 5,263 5,638 5,500 4,907 5,130 4,754 5,187 5,596 5,517 5,425 5,793

Notes:

Comparison expenditure is 'grown' from the 2007 base year to the appropriate interval year using the following per annum growth rates:

2008-2010 0.20%

2010-2016 3.34%

2016-2021 3.30%

2021-2026 3.25%

Table 2b

Convenience goods per capita expenditure in WNCA, 2008-2026

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

2008 (Actual) 1,836 1,950 1,904 1,792 1,875 1,730 1,779 1,961 1,880 1,880 1,952

2010 (Estimate) 1,765 1,874 1,830 1,722 1,802 1,663 1,710 1,885 1,807 1,807 1,876

2016 (Estimate) 1,825 1,938 1,892 1,781 1,863 1,719 1,768 1,949 1,868 1,868 1,940

2021 (Estimate) 1,885 2,002 1,954 1,839 1,925 1,776 1,826 2,013 1,930 1,930 2,004

2026 (Estimate) 1,947 2,068 2,019 1,900 1,988 1,834 1,886 2,079 1,993 1,993 2,070

Notes:

Convenience expenditure is 'grown' from the 2007 base year to the appropriate interval year using the following per annum growth rates:

2008-2010 -1.31%

2010-2016 0.56%

2016-2021 0.65%

2021-2026 0.65%

Table 3a

Total comparison goods expenditure in WNCA, 2008-2026

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Total

Sub-total, 2008 (£m) 84.14 75.02 77.03 105.46 193.89 177.59 134.44 155.41 82.29 39.42 158.74 1,283.42

Less SFT of 8.2% 6.90 6.15 6.32 8.65 15.90 14.56 11.02 12.74 6.75 3.23 13.02 105.24

Total, 2008 (£m) 77.24 68.86 70.71 96.81 177.99 163.03 123.42 142.66 75.55 36.19 145.72 1,178.18

Sub-total, 2010 (£m) 85.34 76.15 78.15 106.99 195.82 179.38 136.15 156.86 83.60 40.06 160.40 1,298.91

Less SFT of 11.7% 9.99 8.91 9.14 12.52 22.91 20.99 15.93 18.35 9.78 4.69 18.77 151.97

Total, 2010 (£m) 75.36 67.24 69.01 94.47 172.91 158.39 120.22 138.50 73.82 35.37 141.63 1,146.94

Sub-total, 2016 (£m) 106.75 93.81 96.67 136.16 244.61 224.13 172.01 192.08 106.32 50.53 200.95 1,624.03

Less SFT of 13.9% 14.84 13.04 13.44 18.93 34.00 31.15 23.91 26.70 14.78 7.02 27.93 225.74

Total, 2016 (£m) 91.91 80.77 83.23 117.24 210.61 192.98 148.10 165.39 91.54 43.51 173.02 1,398.29

Sub-total, 2021 (£m) 128.21 116.75 126.61 167.30 295.18 270.55 211.53 234.49 128.68 59.80 242.74 1,981.83

Less SFT of 13.6% 17.44 15.88 17.22 22.75 40.14 36.79 28.77 31.89 17.50 8.13 33.01 269.53

Total, 2021 (£m) 110.77 100.87 109.39 144.55 255.03 233.75 182.76 202.60 111.18 51.67 209.73 1,712.31

Sub-total, 2026 (£m) 154.23 144.05 160.50 204.20 354.61 325.10 261.59 290.65 156.98 70.48 285.55 2,407.95

Less SFT of 13.3% 20.51 19.16 21.35 27.16 47.16 43.24 34.79 38.66 20.88 9.37 37.98 320.26

Total, 2026 (£m) 133.72 124.89 139.15 177.04 307.45 281.86 226.80 252.00 136.10 61.11 247.58 2,087.69

Growth, 2010-16 (£m) 16.55 13.53 14.22 22.76 37.70 34.59 27.88 26.88 17.72 8.13 31.39 251.35

Growth, 2010-26 (£m) 58.36 57.65 70.15 82.56 134.54 123.47 106.57 113.49 62.28 25.73 105.94 940.75

Notes:

The following discounts have been applied for 'Special forms of trading' (e.g. online shopping)

2008 8.20%

2010 11.70%

2016 13.90%

2021 13.60%

2026 13.30%

SFT discounts sourced from Experian Retail Planner 8.1, August 2010.

Table 3b

Total convenience goods expenditure in WNCA, 2008-2026

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Total

Sub-total, 2008 (£m) 49.53 43.78 45.00 64.99 119.58 109.06 77.80 91.90 47.33 23.05 90.26 762.29

Less SFT of 2.5% 1.24 1.09 1.13 1.62 2.99 2.73 1.95 2.30 1.18 0.58 2.26 19.06

Total, 2008 (£m) 48.29 42.69 43.88 63.36 116.59 106.34 75.86 89.61 46.14 22.47 88.00 743.24

Sub-total, 2010 (£m) 48.10 42.55 43.71 63.12 115.63 105.47 75.44 88.81 46.03 22.43 87.32 738.60

Less SFT of 3.7% 1.78 1.57 1.62 2.34 4.28 3.90 2.79 3.29 1.70 0.83 3.23 27.33

Total, 2010 (£m) 46.32 40.98 42.09 60.79 111.35 101.56 72.65 85.52 44.33 21.60 84.09 711.27

Sub-total, 2016 (£m) 51.07 44.50 45.90 68.20 122.63 111.88 80.91 92.33 49.70 24.02 92.87 784.02

Less SFT of 4.8% 2.45 2.14 2.20 3.27 5.89 5.37 3.88 4.43 2.39 1.15 4.46 37.63

Total, 2016 (£m) 48.62 42.37 43.70 64.93 116.74 106.51 77.03 87.90 47.31 22.86 88.42 746.39

Sub-total, 2021 (£m) 53.87 48.64 52.80 73.59 129.95 118.59 87.38 98.98 52.82 24.96 98.51 840.08

Less SFT of 5.05% 2.72 2.46 2.67 3.72 6.56 5.99 4.41 5.00 2.67 1.26 4.97 42.42

Total, 2021 (£m) 51.15 46.18 50.13 69.87 123.39 112.60 82.96 93.98 50.15 23.70 93.54 797.66

Sub-total, 2026 (£m) 57.04 52.83 58.91 79.06 137.42 125.45 95.12 108.00 56.72 25.89 102.02 898.46

Less SFT of 5.35% 3.05 2.83 3.15 4.23 7.35 6.71 5.09 5.78 3.03 1.39 5.46 48.07

Total, 2026 (£m) 53.99 50.00 55.76 74.83 130.07 118.73 90.03 102.22 53.69 24.51 96.56 850.39

Growth, 2010-16 (£m) 2.30 1.39 1.61 4.14 5.39 4.95 4.38 2.38 2.99 1.27 4.33 35.12

Growth, 2010-26 (£m) 7.68 9.02 13.67 14.05 18.72 17.17 17.38 16.70 9.36 2.91 12.47 139.13

Notes:

The following discounts have been applied for 'Special forms of trading' (e.g. online shopping)

2008 2.50%

2010 3.70%

2016 4.80%

2021 5.05%

2026 5.35%

SFT discounts sourced from Experian Retail Planner 8.1, August 2010. 50% discount applied to Experian rates to allow for store-based shopping models.

Table 4

Comparison goods market shares for WNCA at 2010

Zone 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

West Northamptonshire Catchment Area (WNCA)

Zone 1 Market Harborough % % % % % % % % % % %

• Market Harborough town centre 44.48 1.61 3.08 0.00 0.75 0.00 0.45 0.15 0.14 0.00 0.00

• Market Harborough retail warehouses 6.18 0.16 0.49 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Sub total for Zone 1 50.66 1.77 3.57 0.12 0.75 0.00 0.45 0.40 0.14 0.00 0.00

Zone 2 West of Northampton

• All destinations within Survey Zone 2 0.00 0.82 1.96 0.13 0.29 0.00 0.07 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.14


Zone 3 North of Northampton



Zone 4 Northampton West

• Sixfields RP/Weedon Road (incl Sainsbury's), N'ton 0.10 11.16 1.17 19.80 5.72 2.35 4.06 2.86 4.07 0.98 0.83

• Other destinations, Survey Zone 4 0.00 0.90 0.00 2.43 0.52 0.38 0.39 0.00 0.29 0.00 0.00


Zone 5 Northampton Central & North

• Northampton town centre (incl St Peter's Way RP) 1.97 29.86 23.40 39.66 39.89 22.81 33.69 10.87 12.90 31.46 1.85

• St James Retail Park, Northampton 1.63 10.27 5.67 15.46 8.50 7.60 14.74 4.52 7.40 7.91 1.10

• B&Q Warehouse, Towcester Road, Northampton 0.26 1.38 1.94 2.02 4.20 2.53 5.98 0.84 1.50 2.15 0.16

• Nene Valley Retail Park, Northampton 0.32 1.47 0.97 2.96 2.73 0.25 3.79 1.42 1.46 1.31 0.24

• Wellingborough Road District Centre, Northampton 0.00 0.00 0.90 0.00 1.39 3.14 0.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00



Zone 6 Northampton East & Weston Favell

• Riverside Retail Park, Northampton 1.25 3.10 17.05 2.93 13.37 25.57 8.75 1.74 4.84 19.19 0.47

• Tesco Extra, Weston Favell District Centre 0.10 0.94 3.58 0.00 2.31 10.07 0.30 0.00 0.00 2.95 0.00

• Weston Favell District Centre (excluding Tesco Extra) 0.00 0.21 6.10 0.14 2.09 8.51 0.28 0.31 0.00 2.92 0.00



Zone 7 Northampton South

• Tesco Extra, Mereway District Centre 0.00 3.96 0.13 1.47 1.08 0.29 10.52 0.21 1.56 3.93 0.00



Zone 8 Daventry

• Daventry town centre 0.75 6.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 23.93 1.33 0.00 0.00

• Daventry retail warehouses 0.20 0.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.83 0.11 0.00 0.00



Zone 9 Towcester

• Towcester town centre (including Waitrose) 0.00 1.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.00 7.30 0.00 0.00

• Homebase, Old Tiffield Road, Towcester 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 4.94 0.36 0.00

• Tesco, Old Tiffield Road, Towcester 0.00 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.64 0.00 0.00



Zone 10 South of Northampton



Zone 11 Brackley & Buckingham

• Brackley town centre (including Waitrose) 0.00 0.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 7.44

• Buckingham town centre 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.21 0.00 4.51



Sub-total market shares for WNCA 58.62 77.66 71.37 88.40 89.52 88.33 86.29 52.79 53.80 75.90 21.05


Zone A Rothwell and Desborough % % % % % % % % % % %

• Desborough town centre 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Rothwell town centre 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Sub total for Zone A 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00

Zone B Kettering Hinterland

• Burton Latimer town centre 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Sub total for Zone B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Zone C Kettering Town

• Kettering town centre 1.28 0.00 2.75 0.13 0.26 0.21 0.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Northfield Avenue Retail Park, Kettering 0.63 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Kettering Retail Park, Kettering 0.62 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Tesco, Carina Way, Kettering 0.39 0.00 0.93 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Venture Retail Park, Kettering (excluding Tesco) 0.34 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Other destinations, Survey Zone C 0.20 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Sub total for Zone C 3.47 0.27 3.96 0.13 0.26 0.43 0.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Zone D Thrapston

• Thrapston town centre 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Sub total for Zone D 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Zone E Wellingborough

• Wellingborough town centre 0.00 0.13 3.29 0.22 0.00 0.08 0.15 0.00 0.47 0.48 0.00

• Castlefields Retail Park, Wellingborough 0.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 0.37 0.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.79 0.00

• Victoria Retail Park, Wellingborough (incl. Tesco) 0.00 0.00 1.93 0.15 0.26 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.14 0.00

• Other destinations, Survey Zone E 0.00 0.00 0.86 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17

• Sub total for Zone E 0.00 0.13 8.09 0.45 0.63 0.75 0.15 0.00 0.47 4.41 0.17

Zone F Rushden & Raunds

• Rushden town centre 0.34 0.14 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Asda, Washbrook Road, Rushden 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Waitrose Food & Home, Crown Park, Rushden 0.00 0.16 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Raunds town centre 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.00

• Other destinations, Survey Zone F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Sub total for Zone F 0.34 0.29 0.42 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.35 0.31 0.00 0.23 0.00

Zone G South of Wellingborough

• All destinations within Survey Zone G 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Sub total for Zone G 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Zone H Newport Pagnell & Olney

• Olney town centre 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 0.00

• Newport Pagnell town centre 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.23 0.00

• Other destinations, Survey Zone H 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Sub total for Zone H 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.32 3.23 0.00

Sub-total for OCA 3.80 0.69 12.88 0.69 0.89 1.26 1.33 0.43 0.78 7.86 0.17

Combined total for WNCA and OCA 62.42 78.35 84.26 89.09 90.41 89.60 87.62 53.22 54.58 83.76 21.22

Destinations outside catchment area

• Milton Keynes (centre, retail parks, Bletchley and Ikea) 1.43 13.27 10.45 5.38 7.22 6.82 9.34 6.34 36.62 16.24 33.29

• Banbury (town centre and retail parks) 0.00 0.51 0.00 0.81 0.00 0.00 0.08 17.00 1.94 0.00 36.01

• Corby (town centre, foodstores and retail parks) 3.86 0.30 0.47 0.00 0.10 0.58 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07

• Leicester (city centre, Fosse Park and other retail parks) 21.67 0.64 1.47 0.44 0.08 0.00 0.00 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Bedford (town centre and retail parks) 0.00 0.37 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.34 0.00 0.08

• Rugby (town centre and retail parks) 4.46 0.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 15.18 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Peterborough (city centre and retail parks) 0.46 0.08 0.21 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Other destinations outside catchment area 5.70 5.88 3.15 3.70 2.19 2.91 2.75 7.00 6.51 0.00 9.33

Sub-total for outside catchment area 37.58 21.65 15.74 10.91 9.59 10.40 12.38 46.78 45.42 16.24 78.78

Overall total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

Table 5

Comparison goods spending patterns for WNCA at 2010

Zone 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

TOTAL

Proportion

of total

expenditure

Total available expenditure at 2010 £m 75.36 67.24 69.01 94.47 172.91 158.39 120.22 138.50 73.82 35.37 141.63 1,146.94 -

West Northamptonshire Catchment Area

Zone 1 Market Harborough £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m %

• Market Harborough town centre 33.52 1.08 2.12 0.00 1.29 0.00 0.55 0.21 0.10 0.00 0.00 38.87 3.39%

• Market Harborough retail warehouses 4.66 0.11 0.34 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.57 0.49%

• Sub total for Zone 1 38.18 1.19 2.46 0.11 1.29 0.00 0.55 0.56 0.10 0.00 0.00 44.44 3.87%


• All destinations within Survey Zone 2 0.00 0.55 1.35 0.12 0.49 0.00 0.09 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.20 2.96 0.26%






• Sixfields RP/Weedon Road (incl Sainsbury's), N'ton 0.07 7.50 0.81 18.71 9.89 3.72 4.88 3.96 3.00 0.35 1.18 54.07 4.71%

• Other destinations, Survey Zone 4 0.00 0.61 0.00 2.29 0.90 0.60 0.46 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.00 5.08 0.44%



• Northampton town centre (incl St Peter's Way RP) 1.48 20.08 16.15 37.47 68.98 36.14 40.50 15.05 9.53 11.13 2.62 259.12 22.59%

• St James Retail Park, Northampton 1.23 6.91 3.92 14.60 14.70 12.04 17.72 6.26 5.46 2.80 1.56 87.19 7.60%

• B&Q Warehouse, Towcester Road, Northampton 0.20 0.93 1.34 1.90 7.27 4.00 7.19 1.16 1.11 0.76 0.22 26.09 2.27%

• Nene Valley Retail Park, Northampton 0.24 0.99 0.67 2.79 4.72 0.40 4.56 1.96 1.08 0.47 0.34 18.22 1.59%

• Wellingborough Road District Centre, Northampton 0.00 0.00 0.62 0.00 2.40 4.98 0.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.98 0.78%




• Riverside Retail Park, Northampton 0.94 2.08 11.76 2.77 23.11 40.50 10.52 2.41 3.58 6.79 0.66 105.12 9.17%

• Tesco Extra, Weston Favell District Centre 0.07 0.63 2.47 0.00 4.00 15.95 0.36 0.00 0.00 1.04 0.00 24.54 2.14%

• Weston Favell District Centre (excluding Tesco Extra) 0.00 0.14 4.21 0.13 3.62 13.48 0.34 0.43 0.00 1.03 0.00 23.37 2.04%




• Tesco Extra, Mereway District Centre 0.00 2.66 0.09 1.39 1.87 0.46 12.65 0.29 1.15 1.39 0.00 21.96 1.91%



Zone 8 Daventry

• Daventry town centre 0.56 4.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 33.15 0.98 0.00 0.00 39.00 3.40%

• Daventry retail warehouses 0.15 0.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.31 0.08 0.00 0.00 6.06 0.53%



Zone 9 Towcester

• Towcester town centre (including Waitrose) 0.00 0.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.00 0.00 5.39 0.00 0.00 6.52 0.57%

• Homebase, Old Tiffield Road, Towcester 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.00 3.65 0.13 0.00 3.98 0.35%

• Tesco, Old Tiffield Road, Towcester 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.42 0.00 0.00 3.65 0.32%







• Brackley town centre (including Waitrose) 0.00 0.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.00 10.54 11.08 0.97%

• Buckingham town centre 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.16 0.00 6.38 6.78 0.59%



Sub-total for WNCA 44.17 52.22 49.25 83.52 154.78 139.91 103.74 73.12 39.72 26.85 29.81 797.10 69.50%


Zone A Rothwell and Desborough £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m %

• Desborough town centre 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.01%

• Rothwell town centre 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.02%

• Sub total for Zone A 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.36 0.03%


• Burton Latimer town centre 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.51 0.04%

• Sub total for Zone B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.51 0.04%


• Kettering town centre 0.97 0.00 1.90 0.12 0.45 0.34 0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.27 0.37%

• Northfield Avenue Retail Park, Kettering 0.48 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.54 0.05%

• Kettering Retail Park, Kettering 0.47 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.56 0.05%

• Tesco, Carina Way, Kettering 0.30 0.00 0.64 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.20 0.10%

• Venture Retail Park, Kettering (excluding Tesco) 0.25 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.35 0.03%

• Other destinations, Survey Zone C 0.15 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.37 0.03%

• Sub total for Zone C 2.61 0.18 2.73 0.12 0.45 0.69 0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.28 0.63%

Zone D Thrapston

• Thrapston town centre 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00%

• Sub total for Zone D 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00%


• Wellingborough town centre 0.00 0.09 2.27 0.21 0.00 0.13 0.18 0.00 0.35 0.17 0.00 3.40 0.30%

• Castlefields Retail Park, Wellingborough 0.00 0.00 1.38 0.00 0.65 0.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.63 0.00 3.48 0.30%

• Victoria Retail Park, Wellingborough (incl. Tesco) 0.00 0.00 1.33 0.14 0.44 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.76 0.00 2.91 0.25%

• Other destinations, Survey Zone E 0.00 0.00 0.59 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.90 0.08%

• Sub total for Zone E 0.00 0.09 5.58 0.42 1.09 1.19 0.18 0.00 0.35 1.56 0.24 10.69 0.93%


• Rushden town centre 0.25 0.09 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.11 0.10%

• Asda, Washbrook Road, Rushden 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.02%

• Waitrose Food & Home, Crown Park, Rushden 0.00 0.10 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.38 0.03%

• Raunds town centre 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.08 0.01%

• Other destinations, Survey Zone F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00%

• Sub total for Zone F 0.25 0.20 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.42 0.43 0.00 0.08 0.00 1.79 0.16%


• All destinations within Survey Zone G 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00%

• Sub total for Zone G 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00%


• Olney town centre 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.06 0.00 1.26 0.11%

• Newport Pagnell town centre 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.08 0.00 0.31 0.03%

• Other destinations, Survey Zone H 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00%

• Sub total for Zone H 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23 1.14 0.00 1.58 0.14%

Sub-total for OCA 2.87 0.46 8.89 0.66 1.54 2.00 1.60 0.59 0.58 2.78 0.24 22.21 1.94%

Combined total for WNCA and OCA 47.04 52.69 58.14 84.17 156.33 141.91 105.35 73.71 40.30 29.63 30.05 819.31 71.43%


• Milton Keynes (centre, retail parks, Bletchley and Ikea) 1.07 8.92 7.21 5.08 12.48 10.79 11.23 8.78 27.04 5.74 47.15 145.51 12.69%

• Banbury (town centre and retail parks) 0.00 0.34 0.00 0.76 0.00 0.00 0.09 23.55 1.43 0.00 51.01 77.19 6.73%

• Corby (town centre, foodstores and retail parks) 2.91 0.20 0.32 0.00 0.17 0.92 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 4.73 0.41%

• Leicester (city centre, Fosse Park and other retail parks) 16.33 0.43 1.01 0.41 0.14 0.00 0.00 1.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.07 1.75%

• Bedford (town centre and retail parks) 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.11 0.98 0.09%

• Rugby (town centre and retail parks) 3.36 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.00 21.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 24.94 2.17%

• Peterborough (city centre and retail parks) 0.35 0.05 0.14 0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.88 0.08%

• Other destinations outside catchment area 4.29 3.95 2.17 3.50 3.78 4.61 3.30 9.70 4.80 0.00 13.21 53.32 4.65%

Sub-total for outside catchment area 28.32 14.56 10.86 10.30 16.58 16.48 14.88 64.79 33.53 5.74 111.58 327.63 28.57%

Overall total 75.36 67.24 69.01 94.47 172.91 158.39 120.22 138.50 73.82 35.37 141.63 1146.94 100.00%

Table 6

Summary of comparison goods capacity for West Northamptonshire JPU to 2026

Change Change Change Change

Row 2010 2016 2021 2026 2010-16 2016-21 2021-26 2010-26

A Total Population 704,258 731,015 758,585 786,902

26,757 27,571 28,316 82,644

B Total Expenditure £m 1,146.9 1,398.3 1,712.3 2,087.7

251.3 314.0 375.4 940.8

C Retained Expenditure £m 732.4 893.6 1095.6 1339.4 161.2 202.0 243.8 607.0

D Retained Expenditure % 64 64 64 64

Leakage £m 414.5 504.7 616.7 748.3

90.1 112.0 131.6 333.7

E Inflow (%) 10% 10% 10% 10%

F Inflow £m 81.4 99.3 121.7 148.8

17.9 22.4 27.1 67.4

G Total Turnover of Comparison Stores in OCA £m 813.8 813.8 813.8 813.8

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Initial Surplus £m/annum (Growth in Retained Expenditure) 0.0 179.1 403.6 674.5 179.1 224.4 270.9 674.5

Claims on Expenditure

H Existing Traders £m 0.0 63.9 120.2 179.2

63.9 56.3 59.0 179.2

I Commitments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Impact on capacity £m 0.0 63.9 120.2 179.2

63.9 56.3 59.0 179.2

SUMMARY 2010 2016 2021 2026 2010-16 2016-21 2021-26 2010-26

Initial surplus £m 0.0 179.1 403.6 674.5

179.1 224.4 270.9 674.5

Claims on capacity £m 0.0 63.9 120.2 179.2

63.9 56.3 59.0 179.2

J RESIDUAL £m 0.0 115.3 283.4 495.3 115.3 168.1 211.9 495.3

K Turnover per sq m (assumed) 5,000 5,392 5,738 6,101

L Floorspace Requirement for JPU (sqm net) 0 21,378 49,386 81,183 21,378 28,008 31,797 81,183

M Floorspace Requirement for JPU (sq.m gross) 30,540 70,552 115,976 30,540 40,011 45,424 115,976

Notes:

We are not aware of any commitments for comparison goods floorspace over 200 sq.m net in the WNJPU area

Gross: net ratio for floorspace conversion: 70%

Growth rates used for existing trader growth and floorspace productivity growth: 2010-16 1.27% per annum; 2016-21 1.25% per annum; 2021-26 1.23% per annum

Table 7a

Summary of comparison goods capacity for Northampton Borough to 2026


Row 2010 2016 2021 2026 2010-16 2016-21 2021-26 2010-26


26,757 27,571 28,316 82,644


251.3 314.0 375.4 940.8



Leakage £m 487.3 592.6 724.2 880.5

105.3 131.6 156.2 393.1

E Inflow (%) 11% 11% 11% 11%

F Inflow £m 81.4 99.3 121.7 148.8

17.9 22.4 27.1 67.4


0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0




58.1 51.3 53.7 163.2


0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


58.1 51.3 53.7 163.2

SUMMARY 2010 2016 2021 2026 2010-16 2016-21 2021-26 2010-26


164.0 204.8 246.2 615.1


58.1 51.3 53.7 163.2

J RESIDUAL £m 0.0 105.8 259.4 451.9 105.8 153.6 192.5 451.9


L Floorspace Requirement for Northampton Borough (sqm net) 0 19,629 45,206 74,073 19,629 25,577 28,866 74,073

M Floorspace Requirement for Northampton Borough (sq.m gross) 28,041 64,581 105,818 28,041 36,539 41,237 105,818

Notes:




Table 7b

Summary of comparison goods capacity for Daventry District to 2026 (static retention scenario)


Row 2010 2016 2021 2026

2010-16 2016-21 2021-26 2010-26


26,757 27,571 28,316 82,644


251.3 314.0 375.4 940.8

C Retained Expenditure £m 47.3 56.6 69.4 86.2

9.3 12.8 16.8 38.9


Leakage £m 1099.6 1341.7 1642.9 2001.4 242.1 301.2 358.6 901.8

E Inflow (%) 0% 0% 0% 0%

F Inflow £m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Initial Surplus £m/annum (Growth in Retained Expenditure) 0.0 9.3 22.1 38.9

9.3 12.8 16.8 38.9



3.7 3.3 3.4 10.4

I Commitments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


3.7 3.3 3.4 10.4

SUMMARY 2010 2016 2021 2026

2010-16 2016-21 2021-26 2010-26


9.3 12.8 16.8 38.9

Claims on capacity £m 0.0 3.7 7.0 10.4 3.7 3.3 3.4 10.4

J RESIDUAL £m 0.0 5.6 15.1 28.5

5.6 9.6 13.4 28.5


L Floorspace Requirement for Daventry District (sqm net) 0 1,035 2,639 4,676 1,035 1,605 2,037 4,676

M Floorspace Requirement for Daventry District (sq.m gross) 1,478 3,770 6,679 1,478 2,292 2,909 6,679

Notes:




Table 7c

Summary of comparison goods capacity for Daventry District to 2026 (increasing retention scenario)


Row 2010 2016 2021 2026

2010-16 2016-21 2021-26 2010-26


26,757 27,571 28,316 82,644


251.3 314.0 375.4 940.8


22.6 15.7 18.8 57.1

D Retained Expenditure % 4% 5% 5% 5%

Leakage £m 1099.6 1328.4 1626.7 1983.3

228.7 298.3 356.6 883.7

E Inflow (%) 0% 0% 0% 0%

F Inflow £m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


22.6 15.7 18.8 57.1


H Existing Traders £m 0.0 3.7 7.0 10.4 3.7 3.3 3.4 10.4


0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


3.7 3.3 3.4 10.4

SUMMARY 2010 2016 2021 2026

2010-16 2016-21 2021-26 2010-26


22.6 15.7 18.8 57.1


3.7 3.3 3.4 10.4

J RESIDUAL £m 0.0 18.9 31.3 46.7

18.9 12.4 15.3 46.7


L Floorspace Requirement for Daventry District (sqm net) 0 3,505 5,459 7,649 3,505 1,954 2,190 7,649

M Floorspace Requirement for Daventry District (sq.m gross) 5,007 7,799 10,928 5,007 2,792 3,128 10,928

Table 7d

Summary of comparison goods capacity for South Northamptonshire to 2026


Row 2010 2016 2021 2026 2010-16 2016-21 2021-26 2010-26


26,757 27,571 28,316 82,644


251.3 314.0 375.4 940.8



Leakage £m 1121.4 1366.9 1674.2 2041.7

245.5 307.3 367.5 920.3

E Inflow (%) 0% 0% 0% 0%

F Inflow £m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0




2.0 1.8 1.8 5.6


0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


2.0 1.8 1.8 5.6

SUMMARY 2010 2016 2021 2026 2010-16 2016-21 2021-26 2010-26


5.9 6.8 7.9 20.5


2.0 1.8 1.8 5.6

J RESIDUAL £m 0.0 3.9 8.8 14.9 3.9 5.0 6.0 14.9


L Floorspace Requirement for South Northamptonshire (sqm net) 0 715 1,541 2,435 715 826 894 2,435

M Floorspace Requirement for South Northamptonshire (sq.m gross) 1,021 2,201 3,479 1,021 1,180 1,278 3,479

Notes:




Table 8

Comparison goods quantitative summary


2010 2016 2021 2026 2010-16 2016-21 2021-26 2010-26

West Northamptonshire (JPU Area)

Net 0 21,400 49,400 81,200 21,400 28,000 31,800 81,200

Gross 0 30,500 70,600 116,000 30,500 40,000 45,400 116,000

Northampton Borough

Net 0 19,600 45,200 74,100 19,600 25,600 28,900 74,100

Gross 0 28,000 64,600 105,800 28,000 36,500 41,200 105,800

Daventry District

Net 0 1,000 2,600 4,700 1,000 1,600 2,000 4,700

Gross 0 1,500 3,800 6,700 1,500 2,300 2,900 6,700

Daventry District (Increased Market Share)

Net 0 3,500 5,500 7,600

3,500 2,000 2,200 7,600

Gross 0 5,000 7,800 10,900 5,000 2,800 3,100 10,900

South Northamptonshire District

Net 0 700 1,500 2,400 700 800 900 2,400

Gross 0 1,000 2,200 3,500 1,000 1,200 1,300 3,500

Note: figures may not add due to rounding.

Table 9

Convenience goods market shares at 2010

Zone 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11


Zone 1 Market Harborough % % % % % % % % % % %

• Sainsbury's, St Mary's Place, Springfield Street, MARKET HARBOROUGH 38.33 1.41 1.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Tesco Metro, 21 The Square, MARKET HARBOROUGH 19.83 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Extra Foodstore (Co-Op), Coventry Road, MARKET HARBOROUGH 8.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Local Shops, MARKET HARBOROUGH 5.02 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Aldi, Springfield Street, MARKET HARBOROUGH 2.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Other foodstores, Survey Zone 1 1.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Sub total for Survey Zone 1 75.93 1.41 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00


• All foodstores within Survey Zone 2 0.27 3.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.00



• Co-operative Food, High Street, EARLS BARTON 0.00 0.00 5.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Co-op, High Street, MOULTON 0.00 0.00 2.01 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00




• Sainsbury's, Gambrel Road, NORTHAMPTON 0.55 23.99 4.97 40.79 7.37 1.41 7.72 1.80 3.79 2.63 0.00

• Aldi, Harlestone Road, NORTHAMPTON 0.57 1.83 1.16 7.01 0.55 0.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Iceland, Harlestone Road, NORTHAMPTON 0.00 0.69 0.58 6.09 0.00 0.43 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Tesco Express, 50 Bordeaux Close, Alsace Park, Duston, NORTHAMPTON 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.90 0.00 0.00 0.00




• Morrisons, Victoria Promenade, NORTHAMPTON 0.00 6.75 1.31 8.62 5.00 4.10 13.46 0.00 1.53 19.76 0.00

• Asda, Harborough Way, Kingsthorpe, NORTHAMPTON 0.57 5.17 4.39 3.56 11.95 0.42 0.37 0.00 0.00 1.34 0.64

• Waitrose, The Kingsthorpe Centre, Harborough Road, NORTHAMPTON 0.00 4.62 5.74 0.83 12.88 0.43 0.19 1.03 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Sainsbury's, Princes Walk, Grosvenor Centre, NORTHAMPTON 0.00 3.72 0.15 5.55 5.88 1.47 0.84 0.00 0.00 5.30 0.00

• Local Shops, Northampton (not town centre) 0.00 0.39 0.15 2.48 1.01 1.59 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Local stores, Northampton (town centre) 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.84 0.39 2.04 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.00

• Co-operative Food, Barry Road, NORTHAMPTON 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.01 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00

• Marks & Spencer, Abington Street, NORTHAMPTON 0.00 0.39 0.75 0.42 0.22 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.00 2.63 0.00




• Morrisons, Kettering Road, Bedwas Road, NORTHAMPTON 0.00 4.41 9.37 4.28 26.38 29.77 0.75 0.00 1.21 0.00 0.00

• Tesco Extra, Weston Favell EXTRA, 12 Weston Favell Centre,

NORTHAMPTON 0.00 2.52 16.02 1.25 7.26 35.89 1.12 0.00 0.00 11.95 0.00

• Lidl, Weston Favell Centre, Wellingborough Road, NORTHAMPTON 0.00 0.18 0.16 0.00 1.11 3.05 0.38 0.00 0.00 1.37 0.00




• Tesco Extra, Clannell Road, Hunsbury Hill Centre, NORTHAMPTON 0.00 16.29 0.58 6.77 3.25 0.24 59.26 0.00 1.98 21.10 0.00

• Tesco Express, Butts Road, East Hunsbury, NORTHAMPTON 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.00 1.78 0.00 2.69 0.00 0.00 0.69 0.00



Zone 8 Daventry

• Tesco, 15 New Street, DAVENTRY 1.10 1.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 26.91 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Waitrose, 13 Bowen Square, DAVENTRY 0.55 7.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.47 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Aldi, Sheaf Street, DAVENTRY 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.22 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Local shops, Daventry 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.30 0.18 0.00 0.00



Zone 9 Towcester

• Waitrose, Richmond Road, Water Lane, TOWCESTER 0.00 3.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.00 32.75 2.63 1.27

• Tesco, Old Tiffield Road, TOWCESTER 0.00 2.31 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.00 36.28 1.34 0.39

• Local shops, Towcester 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.00 2.39 0.31 0.00




• Local Shops, ROADE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 3.36 0.00




• Tesco, Oxford Road, BRACKLEY 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.21 0.00 28.28

• Tesco, London Road, BUCKINGHAM 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.75

• Waitrose, Manor Road, BRACKLEY 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.90 0.32 0.00 14.44

• Co-operative Food, High Street, Brackley, NORTHAMPTON 0.00 1.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.44 0.00 0.00 0.38

• Local shops, BRACKLEY 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.95

• Waitrose, Meadow Walk, High Street, BUCKINGHAM 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.02



Sub-total market shares for WNCA 80.34 97.52 63.52 98.89 97.44 93.05 96.45 70.21 87.32 79.62 75.83


Zone A Rothwell and Desborough

• Co-op Supermarket, Gladstone Street, DESBOROUGH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Co-op Supermarket, Bell Hill, ROTHWELL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00


• Sub-total for Survey Zone A 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00


• Sainsbury's, High Street, BURTON LATIMER 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00


• Sub-total for Survey Zone B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00


• Tesco, Kettering Business Park, Karina Road, KETTERING 1.81 0.00 2.64 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Morrisons, Lower Street, KETTERING 1.67 0.00 2.64 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Sainsbury's, Rockingham Road, KETTERING 0.00 0.00 1.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Extra Superstore, Cunliffe Drive, KETTERING 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Local Shops, KETTERING 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00


• Sub-total for Survey Zone C 3.48 0.00 7.92 0.14 1.10 0.12 0.00 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.00

Zone D Thrapston

• Co-operative Food, Oundle Road, THRAPSTON 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Local Shops, THRAPSTON 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00


• Sub-total for Survey Zone D 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00


• Tesco, Victoria Park, Turnells Mill Lane, WELLINGBOROUGH 0.00 0.00 7.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.63 0.00

• Morrisons, Oxford Street, WELLINGBOROUGH 0.00 0.00 7.15 0.00 0.00 1.71 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.63 0.00

• Sainsbury's, Northampton Road, WELLINGBOROUGH 0.00 0.00 6.28 0.00 0.00 2.68 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.27 0.00

• Aldi, Victoria Road, WELLINGBOROUGH 0.00 0.00 1.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Iceland, Arndale Centre, WELLINGBOROUGH 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00


• Sub-total for Survey Zone E 0.00 0.00 22.97 0.00 0.22 4.39 0.19 0.00 0.00 10.53 0.00


• Asda, Washbrook Road, RUSHDEN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.71 0.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Waitrose Food & Home, Crown Park, Northampton Road, RUSHDEN 0.00 0.00 2.49 0.00 0.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.63 0.00

• Netto, Peck Way, RUSHDEN 0.00 0.00 1.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Lidl, Brindley Close, RUSHDEN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Iceland, Eaton Walk, RUSHDEN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00


• Sub-total for Survey Zone F 0.00 0.00 4.24 0.00 0.89 1.71 0.38 0.00 0.00 2.63 0.00


• Co-operative Food, Newton Road, Wollaston, WELLINGBOROUGH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.69 0.00

• Welcome (Co-Op), High Street, IRCHESTER 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00


• Sub-total for Survey Zone G 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.69 0.00


• Co-op Market Town, Stanley Court, Weston Road, OLNEY 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Local shops, Olney 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.00


• Sub-total for Survey Zone H 0.00 0.52 1.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.18 0.92 0.00

Sub-total for Outer Catchment Area 3.63 0.52 36.48 0.14 2.22 6.22 0.76 0.71 0.18 14.77 0.00

Combined total for WNCA and OCA 83.96 98.04 100.00 99.03 99.66 99.27 97.21 70.92 87.51 94.39 75.83


• Tesco, McConnell Drive, Wolverton, MILTON KEYNES 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.37 1.30 0.00

• Asda, Phoenix Park Way, CORBY 2.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Asda, Bletcham Way, MILTON KEYNES 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.83 0.00 0.00 1.11 0.00 3.17 0.00 4.13

• Tesco Extra, Lockheed Close, BANBURY 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.19 0.00 0.00 7.42

• Sainsburys, Clapham Road, BEDFORD 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Tesco, Winchester Circle, Kingston, MILTON KEYNES 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.32

• Sainsburys, Witan Gate, MILTON KEYNES 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.45 0.92 0.00 0.32

• Sainsburys, Oxford Road, BANBURY 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.28 0.00 0.00 3.33

• Sainsburys, Dunchurch Road, RUGBY 1.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.12 0.00 0.00 0.00

• Morrisons, Swan Close Road, BANBURY 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.71 0.00 0.00 2.63

• Other foodstores outside catchment area 11.99 1.96 0.00 0.14 0.34 0.73 1.68 11.88 2.03 4.31 6.02

Sub-total for outside catchment area 16.04 1.96 0.00 0.97 0.34 0.73 2.79 29.08 12.49 5.61 24.17

Overall total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

Table 10

Convenience goods spending patterns at 2010

Zone 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 TOTAL

Proportion

of total

expenditure

Total available expenditure at 2010 £m 46.32 40.98 42.09 60.79 111.35 101.56 72.65 85.52 44.33 21.60 84.09 711.27 -


Zone 1 Market Harborough £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m %

• Sainsbury's, St Mary's Place, Springfield Street, MARKET HARBOROUGH 17.76 0.58 0.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.95 2.66%

• Tesco Metro, 21 The Square, MARKET HARBOROUGH 9.18 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.25 1.30%

• Extra Foodstore (Co-Op), Coventry Road, MARKET HARBOROUGH 4.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.10 0.58%

• Local Shops, MARKET HARBOROUGH 2.32 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.39 0.34%

• Aldi, Springfield Street, MARKET HARBOROUGH 1.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.28 0.18%

• Other foodstores, Survey Zone 1 0.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.52 0.07%

• Sub total for Survey Zone 1 35.17 0.58 0.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 36.50 5.13%


• All foodstores within Survey Zone 2 0.13 1.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 1.91 0.27%



• Co-operative Food, High Street, EARLS BARTON 0.00 0.00 2.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.13 0.30%

• Co-op, High Street, MOULTON 0.00 0.00 0.84 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.09 0.15%




• Sainsbury's, Gambrel Road, NORTHAMPTON 0.25 9.83 2.09 24.80 8.20 1.43 5.61 1.54 1.68 0.57 0.00 56.01 7.87%

• Aldi, Harlestone Road, NORTHAMPTON 0.26 0.75 0.49 4.26 0.61 0.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.24 1.02%

• Iceland, Harlestone Road, NORTHAMPTON 0.00 0.28 0.24 3.70 0.00 0.44 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.94 0.69%

• Tesco Express, 50 Bordeaux Close, Alsace Park, Duston, NORTHAMPTON 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.23 0.31%




• Morrisons, Victoria Promenade, NORTHAMPTON 0.00 2.76 0.55 5.24 5.57 4.16 9.78 0.00 0.68 4.27 0.00 33.01 4.64%

• Asda, Harborough Way, Kingsthorpe, NORTHAMPTON 0.26 2.12 1.85 2.16 13.30 0.43 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.29 0.54 21.22 2.98%

• Waitrose, The Kingsthorpe Centre, Harborough Road, NORTHAMPTON 0.00 1.89 2.42 0.51 14.34 0.44 0.13 0.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.61 2.90%

• Sainsbury's, Princes Walk, Grosvenor Centre, NORTHAMPTON 0.00 1.52 0.06 3.37 6.55 1.49 0.61 0.00 0.00 1.15 0.00 14.76 2.07%

• Local Shops, Northampton (not town centre) 0.00 0.16 0.06 1.51 1.12 1.62 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.68 0.66%

• Local stores, Northampton (town centre) 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.51 0.44 2.07 0.84 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 3.96 0.56%

• Co-operative Food, Barry Road, NORTHAMPTON 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.24 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.27 0.00 0.00 2.63 0.37%

• Marks & Spencer, Abington Street, NORTHAMPTON 0.00 0.16 0.31 0.25 0.25 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.57 0.00 1.62 0.23%




• Morrisons, Kettering Road, Bedwas Road, NORTHAMPTON 0.00 1.81 3.94 2.60 29.37 30.23 0.55 0.00 0.54 0.00 0.00 69.04 9.71%

• Tesco Extra, Weston Favell EXTRA, 12 Weston Favell Centre,

NORTHAMPTON 0.00 1.03 6.74 0.76 8.09 36.45 0.81 0.00 0.00 2.58 0.00 56.46 7.94%

• Lidl, Weston Favell Centre, Wellingborough Road, NORTHAMPTON 0.00 0.08 0.07 0.00 1.24 3.10 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.00 5.06 0.71%




• Tesco Extra, Clannell Road, Hunsbury Hill Centre, NORTHAMPTON 0.00 6.67 0.24 4.12 3.62 0.25 43.05 0.00 0.88 4.56 0.00 63.39 8.91%

• Tesco Express, Butts Road, East Hunsbury, NORTHAMPTON 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.00 1.98 0.00 1.96 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.00 4.17 0.59%



Zone 8 Daventry

• Tesco, 15 New Street, DAVENTRY 0.51 0.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 24.27 3.41%

• Waitrose, 13 Bowen Square, DAVENTRY 0.25 2.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.44 3.15%

• Aldi, Sheaf Street, DAVENTRY 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.75 0.39%

• Local shops, Daventry 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.97 0.08 0.00 0.00 2.18 0.31%



Zone 9 Towcester

• Waitrose, Richmond Road, Water Lane, TOWCESTER 0.00 1.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.00 14.52 0.57 1.07 17.83 2.51%

• Tesco, Old Tiffield Road, TOWCESTER 0.00 0.95 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.00 16.08 0.29 0.33 17.85 2.51%

• Local shops, Towcester 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 1.06 0.07 0.00 1.32 0.19%




• Local Shops, ROADE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.73 0.00 0.81 0.11%




• Tesco, Oxford Road, BRACKLEY 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.54 0.00 23.78 24.32 3.42%

• Tesco, London Road, BUCKINGHAM 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.29 18.29 2.57%

• Waitrose, Manor Road, BRACKLEY 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.77 0.14 0.00 12.14 13.05 1.84%

• Co-operative Food, High Street, Brackley, NORTHAMPTON 0.00 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.09 0.00 0.00 0.32 2.85 0.40%

• Local shops, BRACKLEY 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.48 2.48 0.35%

• Waitrose, Meadow Walk, High Street, BUCKINGHAM 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.70 1.70 0.24%



Sub-total for WNCA 37.21 39.96 26.74 60.11 108.51 94.50 70.07 60.05 38.71 17.20 63.77 616.81 86.72%

Outer catchment area

Zone A Rothwell and Desborough

• Co-op Supermarket, Gladstone Street, DESBOROUGH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00%

• Co-op Supermarket, Bell Hill, ROTHWELL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00%


• Sub-total for Survey Zone A 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.01%


• Sainsbury's, High Street, BURTON LATIMER 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00%


• Sub-total for Survey Zone B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00%


• Tesco, Kettering Business Park, Karina Road, KETTERING 0.84 0.00 1.11 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.46 0.35%

• Morrisons, Lower Street, KETTERING 0.77 0.00 1.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.88 0.26%

• Sainsbury's, Rockingham Road, KETTERING 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.07%

• Extra Superstore, Cunliffe Drive, KETTERING 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.01 0.14%

• Local Shops, KETTERING 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.03%


• Sub-total for Survey Zone C 1.61 0.00 3.33 0.08 1.23 0.13 0.00 0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.77 0.95%

Zone D Thrapston

• Co-operative Food, Oundle Road, THRAPSTON 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00%

Local Shops, THRAPSTON 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00%


• Sub-total for Survey Zone D 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00%


• Tesco, Victoria Park, Turnells Mill Lane, WELLINGBOROUGH 0.00 0.00 3.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.57 0.00 3.64 0.51%

• Morrisons, Oxford Street, WELLINGBOROUGH 0.00 0.00 3.01 0.00 0.00 1.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.57 0.00 5.32 0.75%

• Sainsbury's, Northampton Road, WELLINGBOROUGH 0.00 0.00 2.64 0.00 0.00 2.72 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.14 0.00 6.50 0.91%

• Aldi, Victoria Road, WELLINGBOROUGH 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.10%

• Iceland, Arndale Centre, WELLINGBOROUGH 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.01%


• Sub-total for Survey Zone E 0.00 0.00 9.67 0.00 0.25 4.46 0.14 0.00 0.00 2.27 0.00 16.79 2.36%


• Asda, Washbrook Road, RUSHDEN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.74 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.01 0.28%

• Waitrose Food & Home, Crown Park, Northampton Road, RUSHDEN 0.00 0.00 1.05 0.00 0.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.57 0.00 2.61 0.37%

• Netto, Peck Way, RUSHDEN 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.07%

• Lidl, Brindley Close, RUSHDEN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00%

• Iceland, Eaton Walk, RUSHDEN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00%


• Sub-total for Survey Zone F 0.00 0.00 1.78 0.00 0.99 1.74 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.57 0.00 5.35 0.75%


• Co-operative Food, Newton Road, Wollaston, WELLINGBOROUGH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.15 0.02%

• Welcome (Co-Op), High Street, IRCHESTER 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00%


• Sub-total for Survey Zone G 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.36 0.05%


• Co-op Market Town, Stanley Court, Weston Road, OLNEY 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00%

• Local shops, Olney 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.07 0.01%


• Sub-total for Survey Zone H 0.00 0.21 0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.08 0.20 0.00 1.20 0.17%

Sub-total for Outer Catchment Area 1.68 0.21 15.36 0.08 2.47 6.32 0.55 0.60 0.08 3.19 0.00 30.55 4.30%

Combined total for WNCA and OCA 38.89 40.17 42.09 60.20 110.97 100.83 70.62 60.65 38.79 20.39 63.77 647.37 91.02%


• Tesco, McConnell Drive, Wolverton, MILTON KEYNES 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.82 0.28 0.00 3.10 0.44%

• Asda, Phoenix Park Way, CORBY 1.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.74 0.25%

• Asda, Bletcham Way, MILTON KEYNES 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.81 0.00 1.41 0.00 3.47 6.19 0.87%

• Tesco Extra, Lockheed Close, BANBURY 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.58 0.00 0.00 6.24 9.82 1.38%

• Sainsburys, Clapham Road, BEDFORD 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00%

• Tesco, Winchester Circle, Kingston, MILTON KEYNES 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.27 0.27 0.04%

• Sainsburys, Witan Gate, MILTON KEYNES 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.39 0.41 0.00 0.27 1.06 0.15%

• Sainsburys, Oxford Road, BANBURY 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.81 0.00 0.00 2.80 5.60 0.79%

• Sainsburys, Dunchurch Road, RUGBY 0.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.75 0.81%

• Morrisons, Swan Close Road, BANBURY 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.31 0.00 0.00 2.21 4.52 0.64%

• Other foodstores outside catchment area 5.55 0.80 0.00 0.08 0.38 0.74 1.22 10.16 0.90 0.93 5.06 25.84 3.63%

Sub-total for outside catchment area 7.43 0.80 0.00 0.59 0.38 0.74 2.03 24.87 5.54 1.21 20.32 63.90 8.98%

Overall total 46.32 40.98 42.09 60.79 111.35 101.56 72.65 85.52 44.33 21.60 84.09 711.27 100.00%

Table 11

Summary of convenience goods capacity for West Northamptonshire JPU to 2026


Row 2010 2016 2021 2026 2010-16 2016-21 2021-26 2010-26


26,757 27,571 28,316 82,644

B Total Expenditure £m 711.3 746.4 797.7 850.4

35.1 51.3 52.7 139.1


27.5 39.2 41.1 107.8


Leakage £m 164.4 171.9 184.0 195.7

7.6 12.1 11.6 31.3

E Inflow £m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

F Total Turnover of Convenience Stores in OCA £m 546.9 546.9 546.9 546.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Turnover above company benchmarks 64.90 64.90 64.90 64.90



G Existing Traders £m 0.0 8.5 16.9 25.4

8.5 8.4 8.5 25.4

H Commitments 0.0 4.9 4.9 5.0

4.9 0.1 0.1 5.0

Impact on capacity £m 0.0 13.4 21.8 30.4 13.4 8.5 8.6 30.4

SUMMARY 2010 2016 2021 2026

2010-16 2016-21 2021-26 2010-26

Initial surplus £m 64.90 92.45 131.65 172.74 92.4 39.2 41.1 172.7


13.4 8.5 8.6 30.4

I RESIDUAL £m 64.90 79.07 109.82 142.32

79.1 30.7 32.5 142.3

J Turnover per sq m (assumed) 12,546 12,741 12,934 13,129

K Floorspace Requirement for JPU (sq.m net) 5,173 6,206 8,491 10,840 6,206 2,285 2,350 10,840

L Floorspace Requirement for JPU (sq.m gross) 7,958 9,547 13,063 16,678

7,958 3,515 3,615 16,678

Notes:

Includes commitment of Aldi, Towcester (estimated turnover £4.8m)


Growth rates for existing trader growth and floorspace productivity growth: 0.56% per annum between 2010 and 2016 and 0.65% per annum thereafter

Table 12a

Summary of convenience goods capacity for Northampton Borough to 2026


Row 2010 2016 2021 2026 2010-16 2016-21 2021-26 2010-26


26,757 27,571 28,316 82,644


35.1 51.3 52.7 139.1


21.2 29.7 30.6 81.5


Leakage £m 305.3 319.3 340.8 362.9

13.9 21.5 22.1 57.6

E Inflow £m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0






6.3 6.2 6.3 18.8


0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


SUMMARY 2010 2016 2021 2026

2010-16 2016-21 2021-26 2010-26



6.3 6.2 6.3 18.8

I RESIDUAL £m 55.65 70.54 94.04 118.35

70.5 23.5 24.3 118.3


K Floorspace Requirement for Northampton Borough (sq.m net) 4,435 5,536 7,271 9,014 5,536 1,735 1,744 9,014

L Floorspace Requirement for Northampton Borough (sq.m gross) 6,824 8,517 11,186 13,868

8,517 2,669 2,683 13,868

Notes:

We are not aware of any commitments for convenience goods floorspace over 200 sq.m net in Northampton Borough.


Growth rates for existing trader growth and floorspace productivity growth: 0.56% per annum between 2010 and 2016 and 0.65% per

annum thereafter

Table 12b

Summary of convenience goods capacity for Daventry District to 2026 (static retention)


Row 2010 2016 2021 2026

2010-16 2016-21 2021-26 2010-26


26,757 27,571 28,316 82,644


35.1 51.3 52.7 139.1



Leakage £m 652.1 685.5 732.5 779.6

33.4 47.0 47.1 127.5

E Inflow £m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

F Total Turnover of Convenience Stores in OCA £m 59.2 59.2 59.2 59.2

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



1.8 4.3 5.6 11.8



0.9 0.9 0.9 2.7


0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


0.9 0.9 0.9 2.7

SUMMARY 2010 2016 2021 2026 2010-16 2016-21 2021-26 2010-26


1.8 4.3 5.6 11.8


0.9 0.9 0.9 2.7

I RESIDUAL £m 0.13 0.91 4.28 9.00 0.9 3.4 4.7 9.0


K Floorspace Requirement for Daventry District (sq.m net) 10 71 331 686 71 260 355 686

L Floorspace Requirement for Daventry District (sq.m gross) 16 109 509 1,055

109 399 546 1,055

Notes:

We are not aware of any commitments for convenience goods floorspace over 200 sq.m net in Daventry District



annum thereafter

Table 12c

Summary of convenience goods capacity for Daventry District to 2026 (increasing retention)


Row 2010 2016 2021 2026 2010-16 2016-21 2021-26 2010-26


26,757 27,571 28,316 82,644


35.1 51.3 52.7 139.1


22.9 5.6 5.8 34.4

D Retained Expenditure % 8% 11% 11% 11%

Leakage £m 652.1 664.3 709.9 756.9

12.2 45.6 46.9 104.8

E Inflow £m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0






0.9 0.9 0.9 2.7


0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


SUMMARY 2010 2016 2021 2026

2010-16 2016-21 2021-26 2010-26



0.9 0.9 0.9 2.7

I RESIDUAL £m 0.13 22.14 26.87 31.75

22.1 4.7 4.9 31.8


K Floorspace Requirement for Daventry District (sq.m net) 10 1,737 2,078 2,418 1,737 340 341 2,418

L Floorspace Requirement for Daventry District (sq.m gross) 16 2,673 3,196 3,721

2,673 523 524 3,721

Notes:

We are not aware of any commitments for convenience goods floorspace over 200 sq.m net in Daventry District



annum thereafter

Table 12d

Summary of convenience goods capacity for South Northamptonshire to 2026


Row 2010 2016 2021 2026

2010-16 2016-21 2021-26 2010-26


26,757 27,571 28,316 82,644


35.1 51.3 52.7 139.1



Leakage £m 629.5 659.9 706.0 753.9

30.5 46.1 47.9 124.5

E Inflow £m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

F Total Turnover of Convenience Stores in OCA £m 81.8 81.8 81.8 81.8

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



13.8 5.2 4.8 23.8



1.3 1.3 1.3 3.8


4.9 0.1 0.1 5.0


6.1 1.3 1.3 8.8

SUMMARY 2010 2016 2021 2026 2010-16 2016-21 2021-26 2010-26


13.8 5.2 4.8 23.8


6.1 1.3 1.3 8.8

I RESIDUAL £m 9.12 7.63 11.50 14.97 7.6 3.9 3.5 15.0


K Floorspace Requirement for South Northamptonshire (sq.m net) 727 598 889 1,140 598 291 251 1,140

L Floorspace Requirement for South Northamptonshire (sq.m gross) 1,119 921 1,368 1,754

1,119 447 386 1,754

Notes:

Includes commitment of Aldi, Towcester (estimated turnover £4.8m)



annum thereafter

Table 13

Convenience goods quantitative need summary


2010 2016 2021 2026 2010-16 2016-21 2021-26 2010-26

West Northamptonshire (JPU Area)

Net 5,200 6,200 8,500 10,800

6,200 2,300 2,300 10,800

Gross 8,000 9,500 13,100 16,700 8,000 3,500 3,600 16,700

Northampton Borough

Net 4,400 5,500 7,300 9,000

5,500 1,700 1,700 9,000

Gross 6,800 8,500 11,200 13,900 8,500 2,700 2,700 13,900

Daventry District

Net 0 100 300 700

100 300 400 700

Gross 0 100 500 1,100 100 400 500 1,100

Daventry District (Increasing Market Share)

Net 0 1,700 2,100 2,400

1,700 300 300 2,400

Gross 0 2,700 3,200 3,700 2,700 500 500 3,700

South Northamptonshire District

Net 700 600 900 1,100

600 300 300 1,100

Gross 1,100 900 1,400 1,800 1,100 400 400 1,800

Note: figures may not add due to rounding.

APPENDIX 2

Market Shares maps

Figure 1

Comparison goods market share: Northampton town centre

Figure 2

Comparison goods market share: Riverside Retail Park

Figure 3

Comparison goods market share: St James Retail Park

Figure 4

Comparison goods market share: Sixfields Retail Park / Weedon Road stores

Figure 5

Comparison goods market share: Nene Valley Retail Park

Figure 6

Comparison goods market share: Weston Favell

Figure 7

Comparison goods market share: Daventry

Figure 8

Comparison goods market share: Brackley

Figure 9

Comparison goods market share: Towcester

Figure 10

Comparison goods market share: Milton Keynes

Figure 11

Comparison goods market share: Banbury

Figure 12

Comparison goods market share: Market Harborough

Roger Tym & Partners t: 0116 249 3970 3 Museum Square e: 0116 249 3971 Leicester e: [email protected] LE1 6UF w: www.tymconsult.com

Final Report February 2011

West Northamptonshire Joint Planning Unit

West Northamptonshire Retail Study Update Volume 2 Performance Analysis

RTP job number M9462

Unless alternative contractual arrangements have been made, this report remains the property of Roger Tym & Partners until fees have been paid in full.

Copyright and other intellectual property laws protect this information. Reproduction or retransmission of the information, in whole or in part, in any manner, without the prior written consent of the copyright holder, is a violation of copyright law.

CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION & STRUCTURE OF REPORT .................................................................................................. 1

2 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF NORTHAMPTON TOWN CENTRE (UPDATE) ............................................... 4

3 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF NORTHAMPTON DISTRICT AND LOCAL CENTRES .................................. 18

4 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF DAVENTRY TOWN CENTRE ........................................................................ 35

5 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF SOUTH NORTHAMPTONSHIRE CENTRES (UPDATE) .............................. 40

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 Supporting tables and maps Appendix 2 Framework for monitoring vitality and viability of centres

West Northamptonshire Retail Study 2010 Update | Volume 2 – Performance Analysis


1 INTRODUCTION & STRUCTURE OF REPORT 1.1 This second volume of the West Northamptonshire Retail Study sets out a detailed

performance analysis of the town centres and other lower order centres in West Northamptonshire, building on the findings of Section 3 of Volume 1 of the report. The centres reviewed are:

Regional & town centres • Northampton town centre • Brackley • Daventry • Towcester

Other centres within Northampton

• Far Cotton • Kettering Road • Kingsthorpe • St James End • Weston Favell • Wellingborough Road

1.2 In the case of Northampton town centre, the review refreshes a detailed ‘healthcheck’ assessment undertaken by Roger Tym & Partners on behalf of Northampton Borough Council1, which was published in October 2009. We have not sought to replicate this document (which is available within the public domain), but provide an updated assessment based on newly-published monitoring information and further field visits to the town centre in May 2010.

1.3 In the case of Brackley and Towcester town centres, the review refreshes the comprehensive assessment of the vitality and viability of these centres undertaken by Chase & Partners’ ‘South Northamptonshire Retail Study’, which was published in February 2010. Given the relatively recent publication of this document there is considerable overlap in the data available, which we have supplemented with our own qualitative findings following visits to the centres in May 2010.

1.4 Our performance analysis of the centres has involved:

i) On-foot surveys;

ii) Photographic analysis; and

iii) Desk research in relation to the study centres and, where appropriate, a range of comparator centres.

1.5 Our analysis of the retail performance of the study centres is based upon examination of a range of ‘performance indicators’. In Appendix 2 of this volume we set out a framework for the JPU to monitor these indicators. Indeed we draw attention to Policy EC9 of PPS4 which states that local planning authorities should keep the vitality and viability of their centres under review as part of their annual monitoring reports.

1 Roger Tym and Partners for Northampton Borough Council, ‘Northampton Town Centre Healthcheck’, October 2009.



1.6 For our review of the performance analysis of the West Northamptonshire centres we have assessed each centre against the following indicators, taken from Annex D of PPS4:

Indicator A1: Diversity of main town centre uses (by number, type and amount of floorspace);

Indicator A2: The amount of retail, leisure and office floorspace in edge-of-centre and out-of-centre locations;

Indicator A3: The potential capacity for growth or change of centres in the network; Indicator A4: Retailer representation and intentions to change representation; Indicator A5: Shopping rents; Indicator A6: Proportion of vacant street level property and length of time properties

have been vacant; Indicator A7: Commercial yields on non-domestic property; Indicator A9: Pedestrian flows (footfall); Indicator A10: Accessibility; Indicator A12: Perception of safety and occurrence of crime; and Indicator A13: State of the town centre environmental quality.

1.7 Our performance assessment is based on a combination of Local Plan and Experian Goad defined centre boundaries. In cases where performance assessment data is sourced directly from third party information (for example Experian Goad or the FOCUS Commercial Property Database) the boundaries of the centres may not fully correlate with the Local Plan defined boundary. It should also be noted that in the case of the smaller town, district and local centres, only a limited range of performance assessment data is available2.

Structure of remainder of report

1.8 The remainder of Volume 2 is structured as follows:

Section 2 sets out an updated performance analysis of Northampton town centre, building on the RTP healthcheck of the town centre from October 2009;

Section 3 sets out a performance assessment of the seven district centres in Northampton;

Section 4 turns to consider the performance of Daventry town centre;

Section 5 sets out an updated performance analysis of Brackley and Towcester town centres, refreshing the Chase & Partners healthcheck work undertaken in these centres;

Appendix 1 contains the supporting tables and maps for the healthcheck data;

Appendix 2 contains a framework for monitoring vitality and viability of centres.

2 The performance assessment does not review PPS4 Indicator A8 (‘Land values and the length of time key sites have remained undeveloped) as we are not aware of any data for this indicator available within the public domain. The performance assessment also does not review PPS4 Indicator A11 (‘Customers and residents views and behaviour’) as no on-street surveys were undertaken as part of the survey. For the district centres (Section 3) PPS4 Indicator A2 is not considered applicable, and Indicators A5 and A7 are not reviewed as there is no data available for centres of this size.



2 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF NORTHAMPTON TOWN CENTRE (UPDATE)

2.1 We first consider the vitality and viability of Northampton town centre. In this assessment we make extensive reference to the healthcheck work previously undertaken by RTP in Northampton town centre, supplementing it with updated information where this available.

Retail Rankings

2.2 The performance of the main retail centres in West Northamptonshire can be benchmarked using data in Management Horizons Europe’s ‘UK Shopping Index’ (henceforth, ‘the Index’). The Index ranks the performance of all major retail centres in the UK, and as such offers a benchmark with which to compare the performance of a number of centres. Centres are ranked in one of nine location grades, reflecting the level of retail provision ranging from ‘Major City’ to ‘Minor Local’3. The Index includes all major city, town and district centres in the UK, as well as other significant destinations such as retail parks and outlet centres.

2.3 The performance of the Northampton, plus the four town centres in West Northamptonshire, the district and local centres, and the major retail parks in Northampton, is shown in Figure 1 in Appendix 14, alongside data for the major higher-order centres which surround West Northamptonshire and can thus be expected to act as potential draws on comparison goods expenditure. Figure 1 demonstrates the performance of these centres in the most recent (2008) Index, and, where data is available, their historic performance in the Index dating back to 1995/96. It should be noted that the Index was significantly expanded in 2008 to include a larger number of ‘local’ and ‘minor local’ centres, and therefore historic data for centres at these tiers are not available.

2.4 The MHE Index also ranks centres in respect of their fashion retail offer, as this is a key driver of pedestrian footfall in centres. The ‘fashion market position’ ranges from ‘Luxury’ through to ‘Value’5. As a general rule, higher order centres have a broader range of fashion offer and therefore fall within the ‘Middle’ or ‘Upper-Middle’ categories, whilst smaller centres’ fashion retail offer is concentrated towards the ‘lower’ and ‘value’ end; as such retailers typically locate in a larger number of centres. This is an important indicator, as fashion retail is a key driver of footfall in centres.

2.5 It can be sent from Figure 1 that Northampton is, as would be expected, the highest ranking centre in West Northamptonshire, and presently sits at 43rd in the UK Index, a position it shares with Peterborough. Other similarly ranked centres in the Index include Preston,

3 The MHE Index allocates each centre within a tier, reflecting the level of retail provision within the town. The nine tiers which comprise the Index are (highest to lowest), ‘Major City’ (highest ranking centre is London West End, 1st); ‘Major Regional’ (Reading, 12th); ‘Regional’ (Derby, 58th); ‘Sub-Regional’ (Aylesbury, 117th); ‘Major District’ (Cwmbran, 218th); ‘District’ (Guernsey, St Peter Port, 367th); ‘Minor District’ (Enfield Retail Park, 581st); ‘Local’ (Dover, Whitfield, 1,207th); and ‘Minor Local’ (Chelmsford, Moulsham, 2,247th). 4 All future references to Figures relate to those in Appendix 1 of Volume 2 of the study unless stated otherwise. 5 Highest ranking ‘Luxury’ centre is London – Knighstbridge (22nd). Highest ranking ‘Value’ centre is Bletchley (110th).



Doncaster and Romford. Northampton is classed as a second-tier ‘Major Regional’ centre, alongside Leicester and Milton Keynes. Northampton’s position in the Index has remained relatively static, reflecting the limited retail development which has taken place in the town. A decline of five places in the Index can be observed between 1995/96 and 2008, although the current ranking of 43rd remains unchanged from the preceding 2003/04 Index. Both the overall market position and fashion market position are ‘middle’, and whilst there is some limited representation from upper-middle retailers, 44 per cent of the fashion retailers in the town fall within the ‘middle’ order bracket.

Rankings of Retail Parks and competing centres

2.6 Figure 1 also shows the strong retail draw of the Nene Valley and Riverside Retail Parks in Northampton, which are ranked at 694th and 711th positions respectively, thus placing them above all of the other centres in Northampton bar Weston Favell. Again this partly reflects the fact that both locations have strong representation from multiple retailers; however it is evident that both have a strong tenant line up which is likely to compete with the established centres.

2.7 Finally, the strength of the retail offer on the periphery of West Northamptonshire is also demonstrated in Figure 1. Proximate to West Northamptonshire are the ‘Major Regional’ centres of Leicester and Milton Keynes. Leicester has recently significantly enhanced its retail offer through the new Highcross development (which post-dates the most recent MHE Index, and therefore is not reflected in Leicester’s current rank of 14th), whilst Milton Keynes has improved 27 places in the Index since 1995/96. Fosse Park, on the southern edge of Leicester and close to the motorway network, has also improved and expanded its retail offer in recent years. The ‘Sub-Regional’ centres of Aylesbury, Banbury and Bedford, and the ‘Major District’ centre of Rugby can be expected to act as attractors of expenditure from their respective surrounding catchment areas, which extend into West Northamptonshire, although it can be observed that both Bedford and Rugby have experienced falls in position in the Index, suggesting their retail offer has stagnated or declined in recent years.

Diversity of main town centre uses (PPS4 Indicator A1)

2.8 Figure 2 of Appendix 1 shows the diversity of uses in Northampton town centre. The centre was last surveyed by Experian Goad in September 2008, however as part of work undertaken for a healthcheck of Northampton Town Centre, on behalf of Northampton Borough Council, RTP undertook a full update to the Goad diversity of uses survey in June 2009. The results of this exercise are shown below.

2.9 It can be seen that Northampton is under-represented in the convenience goods sub-sector, which accounted for 40 units in the centre, 2.4 per cent below the current UK average. We draw attention to the fact there is just one retailer in the ‘grocery and frozen foods’ sector in the town centre, which is the (relatively small) Sainsbury’s in the Grosvenor Centre. There is therefore presently no competition in terms of supermarket retailing in the centre, and no frozen food retailers.

2.10 Surprisingly for a higher-order centre such as Northampton, the proportion of comparison goods retailers is also below the UK average. The trend towards many comparison goods operators polarising towards only locating in larger centres should benefit a centre such as



Northampton, with a wide catchment and significant growth agenda. However we note there are no qualitative gaps in the comparison goods offer, and representation of the key clothing sub-sectors (G2A to G2D inclusive) is in line with national averages (for the aforementioned reason, it might have been expected these sectors in particular posted above average representation). It can be seen that the two sub-sectors in which there is significant under-representation are ‘furniture, carpets and textiles’ (2.1 per cent below UK average) and ‘chemists, toiletries and opticians’ (2.3 per cent below average).

2.11 Services uses account for 31.6 per cent of units in the centre, again marginally short of the current UK average of 34.0 per cent. The number of uses in the ‘restaurants, cafes, coffee bars, fast food and takeaways’ is 1.7 per cent below average, which is surprising given Northampton’s higher order status and the presence of a number of cultural and leisure facilities such as the theatre and recent Sol Central development.

2.12 The high vacancy rate of 17.3 per cent presents cause for concern, although our site visits to the centre for the purposes of this study suggest a reduction in this, as we return to discuss below.

2.13 The diversity of uses data therefore appears to indicate Northampton is under-provided in a number of key areas at present, notably foodstores, clothing retailing, and restaurants provision.

The amount of retail, leisure and office floorspace in edge-of-centre and out-of-centre locations (PPS4 Indicator A2)

2.14 Volume 1 of this study has identified that Northampton has a significant amount of floorspace in out-of-centre locations, which acts as competition for expenditure with retailers in the town centre. The principal locations for out-of-centre retail floorspace are the retail parks at Riverside, Sixfields, St James and Nene Valley, the latter two of which sit adjacent one another. St Peter’s Way Retail Park abuts the town centre, and we have considered this retail park as part of our analysis of the town centre, although it is considered that linkages between the retail park and the rest of the centre could be strengthened.

2.15 The largest of the retail parks in Northampton is Sixfields, and data from Experian Goad indicates that there is a total of 34,250 sq.m gross retail floorspace at this location, with just over half of this given over to comparison goods floorspace. Sixfields is not a single retail park, but rather the name given to the concentration of out-of-centre stores anchored around the large Sainsbury’s foodstore. The retail offer includes ‘bulky goods’ operators such as Homebase and Wickes, but is more orientated towards larger-format stores by traditional ‘High Street’ retailers such as Boots, Next and JJB Sports. Sixfields also has a strong leisure offer, evidenced by the presence of a multiplex cinema and bowling alley.



Table 2.1 - Floorspace at Sixfields Retail Park, Northampton Floorspace type Floorspace

amount (sq.m gross)

Key retailers

Convenience 7,000 Sainsbury’s Comparison 18,140 Boots the Chemist; Hobbycraft; Homebase; JJB

Sports; Mamas & Papas; Matalan; Next; Wickes Services 9,110 Canons Health Club; First Choice Holiday

Hypermarket; McDonalds; Pizza Hut Sub-total retail floorspace 34,250 Other facilities 7,870 Cineworld; Megabowl; Travelodge Total floorspace 42,120

Source: Experian Goad, July 2007, verified with desktop searches, June 2010

2.16 The Riverside Retail Park, to the south of the town centre, offers 17,330 sq.m gross of retail floorspace – as with Sixfields, there is a mixture of bulky goods retailers (Homebase, Halfords, Currys) and high street retailers (Boots, Next and JJB also trade from this retail park, alongside Brantano, Blacks and Sports Direct). There is a much more limited presence from services and leisure operators at this location. Table 2.2 – Floorspace at Riverside Retail Park, Northampton Floorspace type Floorspace

amount (sq.m gross)

Key retailers

Convenience 0 Comparison 16,440 Boots the Chemist; Brantano; Comet; Currys;

Halfords; Homebase; JJB Sports; Next; Pets at Home; Sports Direct

Services 890 KFC; McDonalds; Pizza Hut Sub-total retail floorspace 17,330 No other facilities

Source: Experian Goad, August 2009, verified with desktop searches, June 2010

2.17 To the immediate south of the town centre there is a further concentration of out-of-centre retail activity, which consists of St James Retail Park, Nene Valley Retail Park and a standalone B&Q retail store on the opposite side of Towcester Road. Whilst these retail areas are within ten minutes’ walk of the southern edge of the town centre, there are no linkages with the centre and the area functions as a separate retail entity.

2.18 St James Retail Park is the larger of the two, comprising a total of 16,540 sq.m gross floorspace, 13,930 sq.m gross of which is given over to comparison goods uses6. With the exception of Toys R Us and DFS, who traditionally operate from larger-format out-of-centre stores, the retail offer at St James is almost entirely made up of ‘high street’ names, including Early Learning Centre, Laura Ashley, Mothercare and British Home Stores.

6 Includes one unit which was vacant at the time of the Experian Goad survey but is assumed would be operated by a comparison goods retailer.



Table 2.3 - St James Retail Park floorspace Floorspace type Floorspace

amount (sq.m gross)

Key retailers

Convenience 0 - Comparison 13,930 Brantano, BHS, DFS, Homesense, Laura

Ashley, Mothercare Services 2,610 JJB Fitness Club; Pizza Hut Sub-total retail floorspace 16,540 No other facilities -


2.19 The adjacent Nene Valley Retail Park has a stronger emphasis on bulky goods format retailing, and contains a total of 14,520 sq.m retail floorspace. Table 2.4 - Nene Valley Retail Park floorspace Floorspace type Floorspace

amount (sq.m gross)

Key retailers

Convenience 0 - Comparison 14,200 Allied Carpets, Carpetright, Comet, Currys,

Dreams, Harveys, PC Worlds, SCS, Staples Services 320 KFC Sub-total retail floorspace 14,520No other facilities


2.20 On the opposite side of Towcester Road is a large B&Q DIY store (10,330 sq.m gross). The total retail floorspace of these three hubs of retail activity is 41,390 sq.m gross, and 38,640 sq.m of this is comparison goods floorspace.

2.21 Combining the comparison goods floorspace of Sixfields, Riverside, St James, Nene Valley and the standalone B&Q store produces a total floorspace of 73,040 sq.m gross. As we have noted above, a large proportion of this is given over to retailers who traditionally operate from town centres, but are able to offer a larger product range from out-of-centre stores. It is clear therefore that the retail parks in Northampton are in direct competition with the town centre for expenditure from residents of the town and surrounding areas.

2.22 In addition there is a small concentration of new-build retail units on St James Road, proximate to St James End District Centre, known as Becket Retail Park. This comprises of relatively small units occupied by retailers including Maplin, HSS Hire Shop, Bensons for Beds and Majestic Wine Warehouse.

2.23 Northampton has a number of large foodstores outside the town centre, including a mixture of stores which anchor district centres (such as Asda and Waitrose at Kingsthorpe, and Tesco Extra at Weston Favell) and standalone stores such as Morrisons at Kettering Road and Tesco Extra at Mereway.

The potential capacity for growth or change of centres (PPS4 Indicator A3)

2.24 Northampton is the highest-order retail and administrative centre in West Northamptonshire and there is no other centre within the WNJPU area which offers a similar range of retail and service facilities. As has been set out in Volume 1 of this study, Northampton’s competition for expenditure is an internal battle between an underperforming town centre and overperforming out-of-centre retail parks – as set out in Indicator A2, there over 70,000 sq.m gross of retail and services floorspace in the four main retail parks in the town.



Northampton therefore needs to strengthen its retail offer in order to effectively compete with the retail parks, as well as destinations further afield such as Milton Keynes.

2.25 We are aware of proposals for the expansion and modernisation of the Grosvenor Centre, the town centre’s principal enclosed shopping centre. The existing centre, whilst adequate, would benefit from modernisation and the provision of larger footprint units. Therefore any redevelopment at this location would form a ‘natural’ development of the existing retail offer, introducing additional modern floorspace into the prime retail area.

2.26 We are not aware of any other opportunities for expansion of the town centre. Given the large amounts of car parking available in the centre there may be potential in the longer term for the redevelopment of the St Peter’s Way Retail Park area, however this is relatively poorly connected with the rest of the offer and should not be considered a priority for redevelopment.

Retailer representation and intentions to change representation (PPS4 Indicator A4)

Retailer representation

2.27 As would be expected given its higher order status, Northampton has strong representation from national multiple retailers throughout the convenience, comparison and service sectors. The convenience offer is headed by the aforementioned Sainsbury’s store on the first floor of the Grosvenor Centre. This store appears popular and well supported, but is also relatively outmoded for a modern foodstore, with no opportunities available for extension of the store. The only other main foodstore in the town centre is an Iceland store at the St Peter’s Square retail park. Other convenience retailers present in the centre include Holland & Barrett and Greggs, as well as two branches of regional bakery group Oliver Adams.

2.28 Representation from national comparison goods multiple retailers is strong, and led by department stores Beatties (House of Fraser), Bhs and Debenhams. Other key national multiples present in the centre include Marks & Spencer, H&M, HMV, Primark, Topshop/Topman, Boots, Argos Extra (two branches) and New Look. There is a large standalone TK Maxx store to the south of the town centre on Commercial Street, but this has relatively poor links with the rest of the comparison retailing activity. Some of the stores appear quite small and cramped, particularly in the case of the older units outside the Grosvenor Centre occupied by retailers such as Primark.

2.29 The comparison multiples are concentrated predominantly in the Grosvenor Centre, and Abington Street, west of its junction with York Road. There are also a number on Gold Street (although these are generally lower-grade retailers such as 99p Stores and Wilkinson).

2.30 The quality of the clothing retailer offer is a key driver of footfall in a centre. It can be seen that Northampton has few high-profile fashion multiples, resulting in Northampton attracting a ‘middle’ rating in the ‘Fashion Count’ within the aforementioned MHE Index (which is based on multiple retailer presence). 44 per cent of the fashion retailers in the centre are ‘middle order’, with just 10 per cent classed as ‘upper middle’ retailers.



2.31 Services retailers present in the centre include Ask, Pizza Express, Caffe Nero and Costa. The recent reconfiguration of a vacant former bank on Wood Hill has attracted Nando’s and Prezzo restaurants, which forms a positive addition to the offer in this respect. There is also strong provision from national banks and building societies, concentrated largely on Abington Street.

Operator demand and intentions to change representation

2.32 Figure 3 (Appendix 1) lists the national retailer requirements for Northampton, sourced from the FOCUS Commercial Property Database, correct as at May 2010. There are currently three requirements from convenience operators, 23 comparison goods requirements, and three services requirements. There are also four requirements for other retail and leisure uses, including a nightclub and health and fitness facilities.

2.33 The convenience goods requirements are all from small-scale retailers which could readily be accommodated in the majority of vacant premises in Northampton town centre. Greggs and Subway both have existing representation in the centre, and are therefore seeking multiple branches in the centre.

2.34 A significant number of the comparison goods requirements are for retailers solely seeking out-of-centre floorspace, such as Floors2Go, Hooty’s, Machine Mart and Tile Giant. These are bulky goods operators which would not readily be accommodated in the existing town centre retail offer. Of the in-centre requirements, many are lower-middle order retailers whose operational requirements could be met by vacancies arising in larger, more modern retail premises in the Grosvenor Centre or on western Abington Street. Examples of such retailers include health and beauty retailers Savers and The Fragrance Shop, and clothing retailers Select, Yours and Peacocks. There is a substantial requirement from department store operator TJ Hughes, who have a requirement of between 25,000 and 150,000 sq.ft gross. There are relatively few units in the town centre which could accommodate such a requirement, with the largest unit which is currently vacant – the former Woolworths store on Abington Street – having a gross area of 10,100 sq.ft.

2.35 The number of higher-end retailer requirements is more limited but the active requirement of clothing retailer Zara can be considered positive.

2.36 Active requirements from leisure and café operators are more limited, and presently extend to Chiqutos, Frankie & Benny’s (restaurants) and Starbucks (coffee shop).

Pattern of movement of Zone A Shopping Rents (PPS4 Indicator A5)

2.37 Figure 2.5 below compares prime pitch rents for Northampton with those of the aforementioned comparator centres. According to Colliers CRE 2007, Zone A rents in Northampton averaged £1,507 per sq m in 20077. This rent is lower than in all comparator centres; Oxford and Milton Keynes rents are approximately twice that of Northampton’s.

7 Colliers CRE Zone A rent relates to a hypothetical shop unit of optimum size and configuration in the most popular location (or prime pitch).



2.38 In terms of growth, prime pitch rents in Northampton has been positive between 2000 and 2007. This rate of average annual growth has been relatively good at approximately 1.63% per year. This exceeds Milton Keynes (1.37% pa), but is significantly behind rates of growth in Oxford and Coventry.

2.39 In terms of absolute change, as set out in Table 2.6 (below), Northampton ranks 4th among the comparators. By this measure of growth, Milton Keynes outperformed Northampton: £269 sq m compared to £161 over the period 2000-2007. Figure 2.5 - Prime pitch retail rents in Northampton and selected comparison centres, 2000 to 2008

Source: FOCUS Commercial Property Database / Colliers CRE

Table 2.6 - Growth in prime pitch rents, 2000-2007

2000 2007 2000-2007

Average Annual Growth Rate

Northampton 1,346 1,507 161 1.63%

Peterborough 2,153 2,260 107 0.70%

Milton Keynes 2,691 2,960 269 1.37%

Leicester 2,153 2,260 107 0.70%

Oxford 2,422 3,068 646 3.44%

Coventry 1,615 1,884 269 2.23% Source: Colliers CRE

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Northampton 125 120 125 130 130 135 135 140 140

Peterborough 200 190 205 205 210 210 210 210 210

Milton Keynes 250 225 240 240 250 265 275 275 275

Leicester 200 200 200 200 200 210 210 210 210

Oxford 225 200 210 210 235 250 265 285 290

Coventry 150 150 140 150 150 165 170 175 180

50

100

150

200

250

300



Proportion of vacant street level property and the length of time properties have been vacant (PPS4 Indicator A6)

2.40 There were 97 vacant units in Northampton town centre at the time of the Goad survey (September 2008), which equates to a vacancy rate of 17% and is above the GB average vacancy rate of 12%. In terms of floorspace, 15% of town centre floorspace was vacant in September 2008, which is above the national average of 10%. RTP’s healthcheck work in the town centre in May 2009 indicated that the vacancy rate had subsequently worsened, owing largely to the economic downturn and a number of national multiple retailers failing into administration.

2.41 Further site visits to Northampton town centre in May 2010 however revealed an improving picture. A total of 85 vacant units in the centre were identified, equivalent to 15.1 per cent of units in the centre. Whilst this remains above the current UK average of 12.3 per cent, it clearly reflects an improvement in the vitality and viability of the centre compared to twelve months previously. The RTP report identified that Northampton has historically had a high vacancy rate, and therefore whilst the signs are encouraging, it is recommended this indicator is monitored closely.

2.42 A number of the vacancies have arisen in recent months as a result of retailers already present in the centre locating to newer premises in the centre. Examples of retailers who have moved include T-Mobile (from the Grosvenor Centre to a larger store on Abingdon Street), Jones Bootmakers (from St Giles Street to the Grosvenor Centre) and La Senza (from Abington Street to the Grosvenor Centre). In each case, the retailer has moved to larger, more prominent premises, and this can be considered a positive reflection of the confidence of the retailers in the centre.

2.43 In addition, a number of high profile new retailers have been attracted to the centre, including Superdry (Grosvenor Centre) and the aforementioned Nando’s/Prezzo development on Wood Hill. However, in most cases where a retailer has occupied a previously-vacant premises, the new retailer has been towards the lower-end ‘discount’ market end of the retail spectrum, and accordingly the whilst the number of vacant units has declined, there has been relatively little benefit to the centre as a whole. For example, prominent units in the Grosevor Centre have been let to Poundworld, and Venue, a discount clothing store. On Abington Street, two vacant units have been let to a pawnbrokers and a ‘Cash Generator’ store. A number of prominent units continue to remain vacant, including at the entrance to Peacock Place, the former Woolworths store on Abington Street, and units within the new Sol Central development fronting Marefair.

2.44 We summarise below recent developments in the town centre in respect of this indicator:

Peacock Place – this area of the centre appears to be struggling for vitality and viability, and the number of vacant units in the centre exceeds the number of trading retailers. A number of additional units have become vacant, including both units adjacent to the Market Place entrance of the centre;

Grosvenor Centre – vacancy rates remain relatively low in the centre and vitality and viability appears strong. The only concentration of vacant units in the centre is to the rear of the first floor, where pedestrian activity is low. Recent lettings have included



Superdry clothing store, La Senza, Poundworld, Jones Bootmakers, Pilot clothing and Past Times. A number of the lettings have been to relatively low-grade retailers.

Abington Street – a number of prominent vacant units remain to the western end, within the prime retail area, including the former Woolworths and JJB stores. Eastwards towards the junction with York Road the quality of the retail offer declines, and whilst the number of vacant units is lower here compared to our survey in 2009, they have been replaced by discount retailers such as Cash Generator

Wood Hill – the prominent former bank fronting onto the public gardens has been subdivided, internally modernised and let to two restaurant operators, Nando’s and Prezzo

The Drapery – this area continues to suffer from a significant number of vacant units, some of which also front onto the Market Place. Notable vacant units include those formerly occupied by Lloyds TSB, Freespirit clothing, Quicksilver amusements and the La Tasca restaurant. The street still contains a number of retail draws, such as Debenhams and McDonalds, however its vitality and viability would benefit from new retailer presence.

St Giles Street – our town centre healthcheck expressed concern that this secondary area had seen an increase in vacant units vis-à-vis the Goad survey. It is encouraging to note that the street has benefited from the introduction of a number of new independent retailers, however four vacant units remain, and one further unit is under offer.

Sol Central – the prominent vacant units fronting Marefair remain unlet, perhaps suffering from being a little away from the retail gravity in the centre.

Bridge Street / Gold Street – there has been relatively little change on these streets since our previous surveys of the centre. Bridge Street acts as both a services focus (there are a large number of estate agents) and as part of the evening economy, with a number of bars and take-aways. Gold Street remains a focus for lower-order retailing, but has a relatively low vacancy rate.

2.45 Figure 4 of Appendix 1 summarises the changes in units which have taken place in Northampton town centre since the September 2008 Goad survey, showing:

Units which were identified as vacant at the Goad survey which remain vacant as at May 2010 (i.e. long-standing vacant units) (52 units);

Units which were occupied at the time of the Goad survey but which have subsequently become vacant (33 units);

Units which were identified as vacant at the time of the Goad survey but which have subsequently become let (35 units), and

‘Retailer churn’, where a new retailer has replaced an existing operator, without the unit being vacant for a significant period of time (29 units)

2.46 There has been therefore an almost like-for-like turnover of vacant units in the centre; whilst 33 units which were previously occupied are now vacant, 35 units which were previously vacant are now occupied. This indicates a healthy level of demand and investor confidence



in the town centre. However, as noted above, the quality of the retailers which occupy many of these previously-vacant units is poor.

Commercial yields on non-domestic property (PPS4 Indicator A7)

2.47 Figure 2.7 below shows 2008 Valuation Office Agency (VOA) retail yields for Northampton and compares it with selected regional comparator cities (Peterborough, Leicester, Milton Keynes, Oxford and Coventry). The yields are calculated by dividing the annual rent by the capital value or sale price of the property. Yields indicate a town centre’s attractiveness to investors, with lower yields being stronger. The VOA data is based on the evidence from transactions where individual properties are bought and sold; the data is adjusted to reflect an estimate of yield for the highest rented position in the town centre (the prime yield).

2.48 According to the VOA yield data, Northampton’s retail market is on par with Milton Keynes Central. At 4.75, the yield was significantly stronger than that of Coventry, but considerably weaker than that of Oxford (the leader). Between 2000 and 2008 Northampton’s yield has strengthened considerably. Northampton’s improvement in average annual yield over this time leads all comparator areas. In 10/2000, Northampton’s yield was the strongest of all the comparators, although it now ranks third.

2.49 We understand that more recently, yields in Northampton have weakened due to the recession, and currently stand at 7.258

Figure 2.7 - VOA yield data for Northampton and selected comparator locations, July 20089

Source: VOA

8 Cushman & Wakefield LLP 9 July 2008 represents the most recent VOA publication in respect of this dataset.



Pedestrian flows (footfall) (PPS4 Indicator A9)

2.50 As part of our 2009 town centre health check, RTP undertook pedestrian flow counts at six locations across the town centre. The results of the exercise are shown in Figure 5 of Appendix 1.

2.51 The highest footfall was recorded at Abington Street West. Marks and Spencer is commonly regarded as the central point of any retail street and this part of Abington Street also includes an entrance to the Grosvenor Centre. An average of 1,600 people per hour passing the survey point in this location were counted.

2.52 The next highest pedestrian footfall was recorded further east along Abington Street. Our survey point outside Primark recorded an average of 1,400 pedestrians per hour. From this we conclude that most shoppers visit the full length of Abington Street from the Grosvenor Centre up to Primark. However we noted that at either side of the Abington Street entrance to the Grosvenor Centre and near Primark footfall is lower. This is because in these locations shoppers are presented with multiple directions to move in with no dominant path to follow.

2.53 Compared to Abington Street all the other pedestrian counts were much lower. No other point recorded more than 50 per cent of the footfall on Abington Street.

2.54 We counted an average of 750 pedestrians passing Debenhams on the Drapery and a similar number on Gold Street. St Peters and St Giles both had around 450 pedestrians per hour, and Bridge Street had 250.

2.55 Our visits to the centre in May 2010 affirmed these pedestrian flow patterns remain robust, as would be expected given there have been no significant changes in key anchor stores or pedestrian attractors in the intervening period. The Grosvenor Centre also had strong pedestrian flows throughout, although activity on the upper floor was noticeably more muted than the ground floor. The neighbouring Peacock Place centre however was exceptionally quiet given its prominent location between the main foci of retail activity (the Grosvenor Centre and Abington Street), likely both reflective of, and the cause of, the high number of vacant units in this area. The secondary areas of the centre such as St Giles Street and Bridge Street were demonstrably quieter, yet retained a bustle. West of the busy Horsemarket, pedestrian activity dropped off significantly, with the exception of pedestrians walking to the rail station.

Accessibility (PPS4 Indicator A10)

2.56 The nature of Northampton as the principal shopping and administrative destination in West Northamptonshire ensures that it has a strong level of accessibility both from its immediate urban area and further afield. There is strong car parking provision in the town centre. The Council operate a ‘premier zone’ of car parks (those closer to the town centre, which cost more to park in) and a ‘standard zone’ around the edge of the town centre. The principal car parks are multi-storey developments at Mayorhold (1054 spaces), the Grosvenor Centre (837 spaces), St Michaels (616 spaces) and St Johns (585 spaces). In addition there area number of sizeable surface car parks. The majority of car parks are open 24 hours, and all are covered by CCTV. Prices appear reasonable, with heavily discounted



parking offered on Sundays. The town centre can thus be considered well provided for in this respect.

2.57 Northampton rail station is approximately five minutes’ walk from the town centre, and recent improvements to the public realm in this area ensure the walk between the station and centre is pleasant. There are frequent rail links to London (journey time approximately one hour), Milton Keynes, Rugby, Coventry and Birmingham. Bus connections to suburban Northampton and further afield chiefly operate out of the Greyfriars Bus Station to the rear of the Grosvenor Centre, although there are pick-up points elsewhere in the centre. The Greyfriars Bus Station is evidently ripe for redevelopment, and does not form a positive arrival point into the town centre.

Perception of safety and occurrence of crime (PPS4 Indicator A12)

2.58 Crime and perceptions of crime influence the attractiveness of an area for investment. High rates of crime can influence retailers directly for example; through increased inventory shrinkage, and a need for greater security, as well as indirectly, for example; through the loss of customers as people choose alternative centres due to fear of crime.

2.59 The centre feels safe. There is no evidence of crime, shopkeepers do not appear to take special security methods, police presence seems to be low (although high in the evening) and there are few visible CCTV cameras. The streets are generally wide and well populated and there are very few “dark alleys”. County level studies have found that crime is a relatively important issue, although this is a typical UK response and not unique to Northampton.

2.60 However, crime in Northampton town is recognised as an important issue for retailers. The Northampton Retail Crime Initiative (NRCI) was created in July 2001 to tackle the problems of retail crime in the centre of Northampton Town. This is a large organization with more than 140 members. Its actions include targeting a small group of persistent offenders through Exclusion Orders, running training courses for retailers and providing a dedicated Police Liaison Officer. It is chaired by the Northampton Town Centre Partnership, which is a partnership between the Council, retailers and other organisations.

2.61 Police wardens and Police Community Support Officers (PCSOs) patrol the town centre, and the town centre manager meets the police regularly to discuss any problems that come up and any changes required, e.g. to lighting.

State of the town centre environmental quality (PPS4 Indicator A13)

2.62 Although maintained to an acceptable standard, Northampton town centre continues to look tired. The shopfronts and façades throughout the town are slightly run down, with the notable exceptions of Fish Street and Marefair. St Giles Street also benefits from strong environmental quality. However, in the prime retail area, the Grosvenor Centre mall is dated, and the Peacock Place mall is noticeably more modern but many of the shops have closed down and not been reoccupied. The centre’s recent change of ownership, combined with the regeneration of the Market Square adding to the area’s attractiveness, may improve the situation.



2.63 There is adequate signage within the centre but only one small sign directing people to the town centre from the railway station. There is a decent amount of street furniture (benches and bins), but most of the furniture is damaged to some degree – superficial rather than functional damage, but nevertheless this does contribute substantially to the impression of a tatty environment. Abington Street has particularly good street furniture, with two sculptures and plenty of circular benches with overhangs to provide shelter, however although in good working order these benches are also noticeably damaged aesthetically.

2.64 The improvements to pedestrian footpaths undertaken on Marefair have been extended to include Gold Street, and the quality of the environment of this area of the town centre has consequently improved significantly.

2.65 Whilst it is positive to note that investment has been made in improving the environmental quality of the town centre (work which is ongoing in respect of the Market Place), there remains potential for further improvements to the town centre in this respect.

Conclusions on Northampton

2.66 This section has sought to briefly update the more detailed healthcheck of Northampton town centre undertaken by RTP in 2009. It is evident that relatively little has changed in the town centre subsequent to our study: the centre remains a vital and viable retail destination with solid representation and demand from national retailers, good levels of pedestrian activity, a generally safe and attractive town centre environment, and some examples of new retailers and leisure operators establishing or upgrading their presence in the centre. However there is ample potential for improvement in the quality of the retail offer in the town centre: whilst it is positive to note the reduction in vacant units in the centre, the quality of units which has filled many of these is poor. Parts of the town centre appear dated and outmoded. It is also apparent that the centre suffers from the strength of the retail parks in the town which in many cases replicate the town centre offer albeit in larger, more modern premises.



3 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF NORTHAMPTON DISTRICT AND LOCAL CENTRES

3.1 In this section we review the health of the principal district and local centres in the Northampton urban area. The centres reviewed are those identified by the WNJPU as the principal locations in Northampton which perform the role of a centre. It should be noted that the Northampton Borough Local Plan does not distinguish between town, district and local centres.

3.2 Reflecting the requirements of the study brief we also assess for each district/local centre the provision of eight ‘benchmark’ facilities which it would be expected district centres would offer. These are: doctor’s surgery; pharmacy; optician; dentist; library; small supermarket; bank or building society and post office. Due to a lack of information in the public domain (owing to the small size of some of the centres), we do not discuss PPS4 Indicators A2, A5 and A7 in this section.

3.3 We set out our review of the centres below.

Far Cotton (St Leonard’s Road)

3.4 Far Cotton is a small centre to the south of Northampton, set around the junction of St Leonard’s Road and London Road. The majority of the retail offer is concentrated on St Leonard’s Road, which also contains a number of residential properties. The centre is anchored by a Netto foodstore on the opposite side of the busy London Road.

Retail Rankings

3.5 Far Cotton is classed in the MHE as a ninth-tier ‘Minor Local’ centre, and is placed in 2,779th position – the fifth highest-ranking of the lower order centres in Northampton. The retail offer of the centre is classed as ‘middle’ market by MHE, suggesting there is a good range of shops at the centre; however the ‘Fashion Market Position’ is ‘value’, suggesting that the quality of shops within this sector is poor, although it is acknowledged that the size of the centre ensures there is relatively little representation in the centre in this respect.


3.6 Figure 6 of Appendix 1 sets out the diversity of uses in Far Cotton, and these are also mapped at Figure 7. It can be seen that the centre contains a total of 53 units, making it amongst the larger of the lower order centres surveyed. Representation from the convenience sector is strong, accounting for eight units in total, including Netto and Co-Operative foodstores. Four of the six convenience sub-sectors are represented in Far Cotton.

3.7 Comparison goods retailers account for 26.4 per cent of units in the centre, compared to a UK average of 42.9 per cent. There is therefore a noticeable shortfall in comparison goods provision. Despite this it is positive to note 11 of the 16 comparison goods sub-categories are represented in the centre, suggesting that there is good diversity amongst the relatively limited presence.

3.8 In common with many lower order centres services uses account for the greatest proportion of units in the centre, amounting to 30 units in total, 56.6 per cent of the total offer



compared to a UK average of 34.0 per cent. There is particularly strong representation in the ‘restaurants, cafes, coffee bars, fast food & take-aways’ sub-category, which accounts for over a quarter of units in the centre – over double the UK average. Within in this sub-category the majority of the offer is comprised of take-aways however. Representation in the ‘hairdressers, beauty parlours & health centres’ sub-category is also double the UK average.


3.9 It is apparent that Far Cotton has a sufficient diversity and breadth of retail offer to adequately function as a local centre. The centre would benefit from additional complementary facilities (see Table 3.1 below) in order for it to more adequately fulfil its role in serving the needs of local residents. The centre is surrounded by largely residential areas which offer limited expansion potential. However there is a derelict and boarded up site on the opposite site of the London Road / Ransome Road junction from the Netto store which offers potential for uses to complement and consolidate the existing centre, although the planning status of this site is unknown.



3.10 There are three multiple convenience retailers in Far Cotton which are Netto, the Co-operative food and Oliver Adams Bakery. There are also three multiple comparison retailers, It’s a Gift and Age Concern on St Leonard’s Road, as well as Poundstretcher which operates adjacent to Netto. There is only one multiple service retailer in the centre which is Nationwide bank.

Operator demand

3.11 The FOCUS commercial property database does not list any national retailers with active requirements for the centre at present.


3.12 There is only one vacant unit in the centre, indicating that the centre is healthy and functioning well.


3.13 Pedestrian flows throughout the centre were modest at the time of our visit. Pedestrian flows around the Netto foodstore in particular were lower than might be expected given this forms the anchor foodstore to the centre. Netto is set back from the London Road frontage, and links with the rest of the centre are relatively weak. It is possible therefore that this acts as more of a standalone foodstore.


3.14 Car parking in the centre is predominantly on-street; this does not appear to cause too many problems in terms of congestion as the bays are parallel to St Leonard’s Road. There is also free car parking adjacent to the Netto store although this appeared lightly used. Bus routes 12 and 14 provide connections to Northampton town centre, although the timetabling



of the routes ensures that there is approximately a half hour gap between each service. There is a greater frequency of services operating along Cotton End / London Road.


3.15 We did not observe any security measures such as CCTV at the time of our visit, however the centre felt reasonably safe to walk around. There was some evidence of anti-social behaviour such as graffiti in parts of the centre.


3.16 Many of the shops fronts in the centre are looking dated and tired. Despite this the centre is reasonably well maintained and clean; however there is some litter on the streets. There is also some graffiti located at the east of the centre in an area that appears quite run down and not very well maintained. This area is on the edge of the centre; however it still negatively affects the centre’s appearance. St Leonard’s Road is a relatively quiet road, however in order to access the Netto foodstore, users of the centre must cross the busy London Road.

Summary of facilities in Far Cotton

3.17 Table 3.1 below summarises the facilities in Far Cotton. Four of the eight key district centre facilities are present in the centre, however the centre lacks both a doctor’s surgery, and a pharmacy. Therefore the needs of local residents in respect of these criteria are not being satisfied at present and the centre would clearly benefit from enhancement in this respect. We consider the centre to perform the role and function of a local centre within the town’s retail hierarchy.

3.18 Facilities which are absent are shaded red; those which are available within five minutes’ walk of the centre are shaded amber; and those which are present in the centre itself are shaded green. Table 3.1 - Summary of key facilities in Far Cotton

Doctor’s Surgery Pharmacy Opticians Dentist

Library Bank/building society Small supermarket Post Office

Source: RTP site visit, June 2010

Kingsley Park Terrace (Kettering Road)

3.19 The Kettering Road centre is based on a parade of retail units on the western side of Kingsley Park Terrace, on Kettering Road to the north-east of Northampton town centre.

Retail Rankings

3.20 Kingsley Park Terrace is not ranked in the MHE UK Shopping Index, due to the fact the Index is predominantly scored on the presence of multiple retailers in a centre. As is discussed below there is very limited national multiple retailer representation in the centre, and therefore the centre is not presently listed.




3.21 The centre contains a total of 46 units given over to retail and services uses. A total of six units in the centre are given over to convenience goods uses, including two bakers and two grocery and frozen food retailers. Convenience uses account for 13.0 per cent of uses in the centre, 3.5 per cent above the UK average. Detailed tabulations and maps of the diversity of uses are set out at Figures 8 and 9 of Appendix 1.

3.22 The strong convenience goods representation in Kettering Road is countered by a limited offer in the comparison goods sector. Representation from convenience goods retailers is 12.5 per cent below UK average. Whilst this is to an extent to be expected in a ‘traditional’ district or local centre (as opposed to a purpose-built development such as Weston Favell), it is apparent there are several qualitative gaps in the comparison goods offer in the centre, and only eight of the 16 sub-categories are represented in either part the centre. Representation from the clothing sub-categories is particularly limited; however these retailers typically focus on higher-order centres where footfall is greater.

3.23 Representation from service retailers is above the UK average, and it can be seen that there is strong representation in the ‘restaurants, cafes, coffee bars, fast food & take-aways’ and ‘hairdressers, beauty parlours & health centres’ sub-categories. The centre also has a bank and a building society, but no travel agent.

3.24 The vacancy rate at the time of the Goad survey was approximately 1.0 per cent above the UK average of 12.3 per cent.


3.25 Kingsley Park Terrace functions well as a local centre, with a good range of retail and services. We are not aware of any opportunities within or adjacent to the centre which readily lend themselves to any potential expansion of the centre.



3.26 There is reasonable presence from multiple retailers, including Co-Operative and a recently-opened Tesco Express foodstore, as well as two branches of Oliver Adams bakery, Lloyds TSB bank and Nationwide Building Society.

Operator demand

3.27 The FOCUS Commercial Property database does not list any active requirements from national retailers seeking floorspace in the centre. It would be expected that given the limited presence of national retailers in the centre at present, plus the nature of the existing floorspace in the centre (largely small, older units, particularly to the south of the centre) demand is likely to be restricted to local retailers only.


3.28 As noted above, At the time of the Experian Goad survey in September 2009 Kingsley Park Terrace had a vacancy rate fractionally above the current UK average. There are a total of six vacant units in the centre, representing 13.0 per cent of all units in the centre. The



vacant units are mostly small units, although there are two units upwards of 100 sq.m gross vacant in the centre.


3.29 Kingsley Park Terrace was observed to have a ‘bustle’ about it at the time of our visit, and footfall throughout the centre can be considered to be reasonable.


3.30 Kettering Road is a key arterial route into the centre of Northampton and therefore it is readily accessible. A total of ten bus routes serve Kingsley Park Terrace, providing frequent connections into the town centre. Kingsley Park Terrace is also well served for parking provision, with parking bays immediately parallel to the front of the shops. The majority of these were in use at the time of our visit.


3.31 Kingsley Park Terrace on the whole feels a safe centre. No obvious problems of crime or anti-social behaviour were noted in either part of the centre.


3.32 Kingsley Park Terrace has a good environmental quality, with the setting of the imposing church and tree-lined road proving positive. The shopfronts are generally better maintained, and the wide pedestrian footpath to the front of the shops aids pedestrian movement in the centre. However this part of the centre would also benefit from further investment in planting and street furniture in order to further enhance its environmental quality.

Summary of facilities in Kingsley Park Terrace

3.33 Kingsley Park Terrace is well provided for in terms of key facilities, (Table 3.2), containing four of the eight benchmark facilities, within a further two within five minutes’ walk of the centre. This affirms that Kingsley Park Terrace is adequately performing the role and function of a local centre. Table 3.2 - Summary of key facilities in Kingsley Park Terrace




Kingsthorpe

3.34 Kingsthorpe is a linear centre to the north of Northampton town centre, at the confluence of the busy Harborough Road and Welford Road. The centre is one of the largest centres in Northampton, and is anchored by strong-performing Asda and Waitrose foodstores plus a range of additional comparison and services uses.



Retail Rankings

3.35 Kingsthorpe is the second-highest ranking District/Local Centre in Northampton, behind Weston Favell. The centre achieves a rank of 896th in the 2008 MHE Index, which classes Kingsthorpe as a seventh-tier ‘Minor District’ centre. Kingsthorpe was placed 863rd in the preceding 2003/04 Index, and has therefore experienced a drop of 33 places in the Index over the past five years. MHE classify the centre as having a ‘lower’ market position, indicating that the centre has an above-average proportion of lower-grade retail uses.


3.36 Figure 10 (Appendix 1) shows the tabulated diversity of uses in Kingsthorpe at the time of the Experian Goad survey of the centre, and this is also shown mapped at Figure 11 of Appendix 1. There are a total of 57 units in the centre, and it is apparent the retail offer is geared towards convenience goods and services provision.

3.37 Convenience goods retailers account for 8 units in the centre, equivalent to 14.0 per cent of all units in the centre, 4.5 per cent above the current UK average. There is strong representation from the ‘grocery and frozen foods’ sub-category. There is no representation from the ‘greengrocers & fishmongers’ sub-category, however all other convenience sub-categories are represented in the centre.

3.38 Comparison goods account for 22 units in the centre, equivalent to 38.6 per cent of units in the centre, which is 4.3 per cent below the UK average. As is expected in the smaller centres, there are qualitative gaps in the comparison goods offer, and we draw attention to the fact that Kingsthorpe has no representation in three of the four clothing goods sub-categories (which can be considered key drivers of footfall in a centre). Other gaps in the offer include an absence of retailers in the ‘furniture, carpets and textiles’ and ‘gifts, china, glass and leather goods’ sub-categories. We also note that representation in the ‘charity shops, pets and other comparison goods’ sub-category is 3.3 per cent above the UK average.

3.39 The service sector is well represented in Kingsthorpe, with representation in each of the seven services sub-categories. The ‘banks and financial services’ and ‘travel agents’ sub-categories are over-represented by 4.6 and 5.7 per cent compared to their respective UK averages, although representation in the ‘hairdressers, beauty parlours & health centres’ sub-category is 6.2 per cent below average.

3.40 Convenience floorspace accounts for almost 50 per cent of the retail/services floorspace in the centre, 32.4 per cent above the UK average. The comparison goods accounts for just 23.7 per cent of floorspace, less than half of the UK average; because there is strong numerical representation from comparison goods retailers, this shows the comparison retailers occupy much smaller units in the centre.


3.41 Kingsthorpe is a strong performing centre. It has a good range of facilities and more than adequately serves the needs of its immediate hinterland. We consider that Kingsthorpe should be classed as a district centre in the hierarchy of centres in Northampton, as whilst



the convenience offer is strong, there are qualitative gaps in the comparison goods offer which would not be expected to arise in a higher-order town centre.

3.42 We are not aware of any sites adjacent to the centre which offer potential for expansion of the centre. The existing foodstores at the centre are performing strongly, and Asda in particular operates from a relatively small, constrained site compared to much of the company’s store portfolio.



3.43 Kingsthorpe has reasonable representation from national multiple retailers. The convenience offer is particularly strong in this respect, with representation a cross section of higher-end (Waitrose), middle-market (Asda) and lower-end (Cool-Trader, Bargain Booze) retailers. The multiple comparison offer is relatively more limited but includes Timpson, Carphone Warehouse, Boots, Alliance Pharmacy, and Dolland & Aitchison. National multiple services retailers present include Subway and KFC restaurants, three national travel agents, and five banks/building societies. Given the relatively limited size of the centre (which extends to 57 units) the level of national multiple retailer representation can be considered reasonably strong therefore.

Operator demand

3.44 The FOCUS commercial property database does not list any national retailers with active requirements for Kingsthorpe at present.


3.45 It is positive to note that at the time of the Goad survey there was just one vacant unit in the centre, and thus the vacancy rate is 10.6 per cent below the current UK average. Our site visits to the centre suggests that the vacancy rate remains low, representing a positive indicator of the vitality and viability of the centre.


3.46 Kingsthorpe is evidently a busy and well supported centre, and strong levels of pedestrian activity were noted throughout the centre at the time of our visit. The presence of two foodstores which, as noted in Volume 1 of this study, exert a strong influence over shopping patterns in Northampton, ensures that the centre is a popular destination. Pedestrian flows were noted to be at their strongest in the vicinity of the Kingsthorpe Centre, which includes the anchor Waitrose foodstore and a number of complementary smaller units. Along Harborough Road pedestrian flows appeared quieter. This is likely to be that as the Kingsthorpe Centre has dedicated car parking to visitors of the foodstore, it acts as a relatively self-contained destination. However it is apparent that overall Kingsthorpe is a generally busy, vital and viable centre.


3.47 Kingsthorpe is located on Harborough Road, a major arterial route into Northampton from the north. As such the centre can be considered to have good accessibility by both private



car and public transport. Both Asda and Waitrose have car parking directly adjacent to their respective stores. Elsewhere in the centre there is no on-street parking, which is likely to contribute to the lower footfall rates observed along Harborough Road. Bus route 4a serves Kingsthorpe from the town centre at 15 minute intervals.


3.48 Kingsthorpe generally felt a safe and secure centre at the time of our visit and no instances of anti social behaviour were observed.


3.49 In common with many of the lower order centres in Northampton, Kingsthorpe is a largely linear centre set along a major arterial route into the town centre. Accordingly there is a near-constant flow of traffic through the centre, and users must cross a number of roads in order to travel about the centre, as it is set around a major road junction. There does not appear to have been significant investment in the centre in recent years and accordingly parts of the centre, particularly along Harborough Road, are appearing tired and in need of refreshing.

Summary of facilities in Kingsthorpe

3.50 Seven of the eight benchmark facilities are present in Kingsthorpe, the highest number of any of the district/local centres in Northampton. Kingsthorpe is therefore extremely well provided for in terms of the range of facilities available to local residents, particularly given the strength of the convenience retail offer in the centre. The only absent facility in the centre is a doctor’s surgery, although the closest facility is approximately ten minutes’ walk to the east of the centre. The centre is considered to successfully fulfil the role of a district centre within the network of centres in Northampton. Table 3.3 - Summary of key facilities in Kingsthorpe




St James End

3.51 St James End centre stretches westwards away from Northampton town centre, to the west of the rail station along St James Road towards the town’s rugby ground. In common with most of the lower order centres in the Northampton, St James End is a linear centre.

Retail Rankings

3.52 The MHE Index classes St James End as a ninth-tier ‘Minor Local’ centre, and it is the smallest of those centres classified by MHE. The centre is ranked in 3,870th position, and its retail offer is identified at being at the ‘value’ end of the market.




3.53 Experian Goad do not produce any information on the diversity of uses in this centre, and therefore our commentary is based on the findings of our ‘health check’ visits to the centre, which were carried out in June 2010. Full details of the diversity of uses are presented in Figures 12 and 13 of Appendix 1. Our assessment identified that St James End has above-average representation in the convenience goods sector, which accounts for seven of the 43 units in the centre. Four of the six convenience goods sub-categories are represented and it is noteworthy that there is a range of small supermarkets within the centre, including Aldi and Iceland stores.

3.54 There are just nine comparison goods retailers in the centre, with seven of the 16 comparison goods sub-categories represented. As identified previously, district/local centres are not common locations for comparison goods retailers and therefore this shortfall is not considered a particular cause for concern. Services representation is in line with UK averages, and there is particularly strong representation from the ‘banks & financial services’ sub-category.


3.55 It is not considered that there is potential for St James End to expand its function as a centre. Rather, the focus of attention for this centre should be consolidating and improving its existing offer; as we progress to discuss below, the centre is presently underperforming and is exhibiting poor signs of vitality and viability, but does offer a strong range of services to support the local population.



3.56 There are four multiple convenience retailers in St James End which are Aldi, Iceland, Oliver Adams bakery and Costcutter. There are four multiple service retailers, all being banks, as well as a Bathstore comparison goods outlet.

Operator demand

3.57 The FOCUS Commercial Property Database does not identify any operators with specific requirements for St James End.


3.58 As noted above, St James End was observed to have a high vacancy rate at the time of our visit to the centre. The diversity of uses table at Figure 12 of Appendix 1 shows that 11 of the 43 units which comprise St James End are vacant, equivalent to a vacancy rate of 25.6 per cent – over double the current UK average. The plan at Figure 13 of Appendix 1 highlights a concentration of vacant units towards the eastern end of the centre, south of the junction of Weedon Road and Harlestone Road. In particular we note the presence of a large standalone retail warehouse building proximate to this junction. It is not known how long this unit has remained vacant. To the south of this there are a number of smaller vacant units on either side of St James Road.




3.59 Pedestrian flows in the centre were observed to be quiet, although the foodstores were moderately busy.


3.60 St James End stretches westwards away from Northampton town centre. The centre is accessible on foot from the centre if desired, and there is car parking available adjacent to the Aldi and Iceland stores which anchor the centre. The car park is not very large, but at the time of our visit to the centre, was not busy. A number of bus services serve St James Road leading from the town centre, and also Weedon Road and Harlestone Road. A total of eleven routes serve St James Road, and four of these operate at twenty minute intervals. Access by public transport to the centre can therefore be considered strong.


3.61 The large number of vacant units, and general run-down feel of the centre, brings about a somewhat poor perception of safety in the centre. No obvious crime prevention measures were in place, and a large number of shops had shutters.


3.62 As noted above, the centre suffers from a large number of vacant units and accordingly the environmental quality is compromised. St James Road is a busy route leading into Northampton centre and thus the centre also suffers from problems associated with noise and traffic congestion. There is little in the way of street furniture and St James End generally appears tired and run down.

Summary of facilities at St James End

3.63 St James End has a strong provision of services however, which ensure that despite seemingly struggling for vitality and viability at present, there is a good range of facilities to support the local residential population, hence the centre should be classified as a local centre. Six of the eight benchmark facilities are present in the centre, with those absent being a pharmacy and an opticians. Table 3.4 -Summary of key facilities in St James End




Wellingborough Road

3.64 Wellingborough Road is a long linear centre that stretches eastwards from the edge of Northampton town centre. The centre contains a total of 147 units that are mostly comprised of small, independent retailers.



Retail Rankings

3.65 Wellingborough Road is not ranked in the MHE UK Shopping Index. We are of the opinion that this is likely to be due to the fact the Index is based on the presence of multiple retailers in a centre, of which there are relatively few in this centre.


3.66 Experian Goad’s survey of the centre in September 2009 found the centre to have a convenience goods representation in line with current UK averages, as shown at Figure 14 of Appendix 1. There are a total of 16 convenience retailers in the centre, and there is representation from five of the six convenience goods sub-categories (the only convenience sub-category where there is no representation is the ‘greengrocers & fishmongers’ sub-category). The ‘grocery & frozen foods’ sub-category is particularly strongly represented in the centre, with seven retailers present, accounting for just under 5 per cent of the total retail offer in the centre.

3.67 The comparison goods sector accounts for 48 units in the centre, equivalent to just under a third of all units. We note that 15 of the 16 comparison goods sub-categories are represented in the centre, suggesting a strong retail mix in the centre. The ‘women, girls & children’s clothing’ and ‘chemists, toiletries & opticians’ sub-categories do however post noticeable shortfalls against UK averages.

3.68 The service sector accounts for 42.9 per cent of units in the centre, 8.8 per cent above the current UK average. There is particularly strong representation from the ‘restaurants, cafes, coffee bars, fast food & takeaways’ and ‘hairdressers & beauty parlours’ sub-sectors. There are no travel agents in the centre.


3.69 Wellingborough Road is an established centre, and contains a large number of units operated predominantly by local businesses. There are few larger-footprint stores in the centre. The centre is linear in nature, and is surrounded to the north and south by residential areas, and accordingly there is little potential for expansion of the centre. There is a large derelict site to the western end of the centre at the junction of Portland Place and Wellingborough Road, however we understand this is being developed for residential uses.



3.70 The majority of retailer representation in the centre comprises of independent local businesses. There is some national multiple retailer representation however, including Co-Operative, Sainsbury’s Local and Tesco Express foodstores, Two Seasons clothing, Blockbuster, Lloyds Pharmacy, as well as number of banks and building societies.

Operator demand

3.71 The FOCUS Commercial Property database does not identify any operators with specific requirements for Wellingborough Road.




3.72 There were a total of 18 vacant units in the centre at the time of the Experian Goad survey in September 2009, equivalent to 12.2 per cent of all units, fractionally below the current UK average. The vacant units in the centre are mostly smaller, older premises: only five of the vacant units are above 100 sq.m gross floorspace. The small size of the vacant units ensures that they are only likely to be occupied by local businesses.


3.73 Pedestrian flows seem reasonably strong in this centre towards the town centre, where Wellingborough Road forms a natural extension of the retail offer of the town centre. Flows generally appear to diminish the further distance from the town centre travelled, although are stronger between Wellingborough Road’s junctions with Collins Street and Wycliff Road, reflecting the presence of the larger Co-Operative foodstore, a number of banks, and a generally stronger retail offer. Other parts of the centre however attract generally lower footfall.


3.74 The western end of the centre is within walking distance of Northampton town centre, and the centre can therefore be considered accessible by pedestrians. There are limited opportunities for car parking within the centre however, with parking provision restricted to designated on-street parking bays parallel to the main road. However, at the time of our visit there were spaces available in most parts of the centre.

3.75 A number of bus routes also run along Wellingborough Road and services 1 and 16 operate at ten-minute intervals throughout the day which can be considered a good level of provision.


3.76 No issues of concern were identified in respect of this indicator.


3.77 Wellingborough Road is a linear centre and for the most part appears slightly tired. Most of the shop units occupy ground floor premises often with residential above, and some of the buildings and shop fronts would benefit from investment. There is little in the way of street furniture or planting and so the centre has in parts a somewhat stark feel. There does not appear to have been a great deal of investment in the centre in recent years.

Summary of facilities at Wellingborough Road

3.78 Five of the eight benchmark service facilities are present in the centre. This can be considered a reasonable level of provision however the nearest library is in the town centre, and the nearest doctor’s surgeries are some distance from the centre. The centre therefore falls within a local centre category.



Table 3.5 - Summary of key facilities in Wellingborough Road




Weston Favell

3.79 Weston Favell is a purpose-built district centre to the east of Northampton town centre. The centre is anchored by a large Tesco Extra foodstore, alongside a broad range of supporting convenience and comparison retailers. The centre is akin to a shopping mall, and is also set apart from the other district/local centres in Northampton on account of the fact the majority of the retail offer is taken up by national retailers in purpose built, reasonably modern units. As such the centre functions more as a self-contained town centre, and the household survey results discussed in Voume 1 indicate that the trade draw of the centre is much higher than would be expected from a ‘traditional’ district centre.

Retail Rankings

3.80 As outlined at Figure 1 (Appendix 1), Weston Favell is the highest ranking of the lower order centres in Northampton, and is presently ranked at 477th – therefore the centre has the second highest ranking of any West Northamptonshire centre. In common with Daventry, Weston Favell is classed as a fifth-tier ‘District’-level centre. This is in part a reflection of the fact that the majority of retailers at Weston Favell are national multiple retailers, which attract a greater weighting in the MHE Index10. The centre saw a significant decline in the rankings from 484th (1998/99) to 565th (2000/01), but has subsequently recovered its position.


3.81 Figure 16 in Appendix 1 shows tabulated diversity of uses information for Weston Favell at the time of the Experian Goad survey of the centre in July 2009. The diversity of uses is then mapped at Figure 17.

3.82 It can be seen that the centre comprises of a total of 67 units, including six convenience retailers, 33 comparison retailers, and 20 services retailers. The convenience goods representation is marginally below average, and there is no representation in the ‘greengrocers and fishmongers’ or ‘off-licences and home brew’ sub-categories. There are three retailers in the ‘grocery and frozen food’ sub-category (including the large Tesco Extra anchor foodstore) and thus the centre can be considered well provided for in this respect.

3.83 Comparison goods retailers account for 49.5 per cent of all units at Weston Favell, 6.35 per cent above the current UK average. This reflects the large number of multiple comparison

10 The methodology of the MHE Index is such that the presence of multiple retailers in a town centre improves a centre’s position in the Index.



retailers trading from the centre, which account for a higher present than would normally be expected for a suburban district centre. There is strong representation from each of the clothing sub-sectors, particularly the ‘women’s, girls, children’s clothing’ sub-sector (2.51 per cent above UK average). There is also strong representation from the ‘chemists, toiletries and opticians’ and ‘booksellers, arts/crafts, stationers/copy bureaux’, which are both significantly over-represented compared to their respective UK averages. There are gaps in the comparison goods offer, and five of the 16 sub-sectors post no representation in the centre.

3.84 The services sector is under-represented by 4.19 per cent compared to the current UK average of 34.04 per cent. Particular shortfalls can be noted in the ‘restaurants, cafes, coffee bars, fast food & takeaways’ sub-sector, most likely reflecting the enclosed nature of the centre and limited opportunities for trading outside of retail hours. The vacancy rate is reasonably high, at 10.45 per cent, although this is below the current UK average of 12.30 per cent.


3.85 The strong retail mix, and current trade draw of Weston Favell, as identified in the household survey, is significantly more than would be expected from a ‘typical’ district centre. The centre is busy and vibrant, has few vacancies and reasonable operator demand. Therefore it appears that Weston Favell is out-performing its district centre role at present, and performing a role and function more akin to a standalone town centre. A district centre can be expected to draw trade from a relatively limited hinterland; Weston Favell’s draw is considerably more widespread than this.

3.86 Aside from intensification of the existing development there is relatively little potential for physical expansion of the centre, although we note the recent development of a small parade of retail units adjacent to the centre on Octagon Way.



3.87 There is strong representation from national multiple retailers at Weston Favell, and indeed upwards of 80 per cent of the occupied units in the centre (based on GOAD data) are occupied by multiple retailers. The main convenience anchor is the 8,600 sq.m gross Tesco Extra foodstore, which in addition to providing an extensive food offer, also offers a large range of non-food items, plus a pharmacy, opticians and photo processing. The centre also offers a Lidl foodstore and Oliver Adams bakery.

3.88 The largest comparison goods retailers are Focus DIY (2,940 sq.m gross) and Wilkinson’s (1,890 sq.m gross). Other notable comparison goods retailers present include WH Smith, Boots, Superdrug, JD and Gamestation. There is a reasonable clothing offer, however it is limited to lower-middle end retailers such as New Look, QS, Dorothy Perkins, Burton and Peacocks.

3.89 National services retailers present include Costa, BB’s Coffee, McDonalds and Subway. There are also branches of Natwest, Lloyds TSB, Barclays and Nationwide. There are no



national restaurants present at the centre, likely reflecting the limited opening hours and lack of a complementary leisure offer.

Operator demand

3.90 Table 3.6 below sets out the retailer requirements from national multiples actively seeking trading space at Weston Favell, as at May 2010. There are three requirements in total, from bakery chain Greggs, electrical goods operator Brighthouse, and most notably, clothing and homewares retailer TK Maxx. The latter is a substantial requirement for between 15,000 and 40,000 sq.ft (1,400 to 3,700 sq.m) trading space, and existing floorspace at the centre is generally (with the exception of the Wilkinson store) of insufficient size to accommodate such a requirement. Table 3.6 - Active retail requirements for Weston Favell, May 2010

Retailer

Minimum floorspace requirement (sq.ft gross)

Maximum floorspace requirement (sq.ft gross)

Average floorspace requirement (sq.ft gross)

Preferred Location

Convenience goods

Greggs 750 1,250 1,000 All

Comparison goods

Brighthouse 2,250 3,500 2,875 In-centre

TK Maxx 15,000 40,000 27,500 All

Source: FOCUS Commercial Property Database, correct as at May 2010


3.91 We note above that at the time of the Experian Goad survey of the centre in July 2009, one in ten of the units were vacant, which is higher than might have been expected given the strong retail offer in the centre, but reflective of the present economic situation. The vacancy of 10 per cent was equivalent to seven vacant units in the centre. Two of the vacant units were in the prime pitch ground floor of the centre, with the remaining five in the quieter lower ground floor.

3.92 Recent visits to the centre indicate that the vacancy rate in the centre has reduced since the Experian Goad survey, which is a positive reflection on the vitality and viability of the centre as a retail destination. One of the larger vacant units on the ground floor has been let to Home Depot, whilst smaller vacant units on the lower ground floor have been let to a gadget retailer, jewellers and hair salon. Just two vacant units in the centre are understood to now remain.


3.93 Weston Favell is a popular centre and has a level of footfall significantly greater than would normally be expected from a district centre. Footfall is strongest on the ground floor, and the presence of Tesco on the western side of the ground floor in the centre of the mall ensures a strong level of footfall throughout. To the southern edge of the ground floor Wilkinson’s also performs the role of a secondary anchor store. Pedestrian footfall on the lower ground floor is more limited but still reasonable due to customers accessing the large car park underneath Tesco.




3.94 Weston Favell is located at the junction of the A43 (a major north-south route through east Northampton) and the A4500 Wellingborough Road. The centre is highly accessible by vehicular transport and has a large number of car parking spaces. The centre is also highly accessible by public transport, with upwards of ten bus routes serving the site, including routes 1 and 16 which operate at ten minute frequencies, linking Weston Favell with Northampton town centre. Routes 8 and X46 (the latter of which provides a direct link to Weston Favell for residents in Wellingborough and Raunds) run at half-hour frequencies. Pedestrian movement around the centre can be considered reasonable, and the main shopping centre benefits from an enclosed mall environment.


3.95 We did not identify any issues of concern in respect of this indicator. There appears to be good CCTV coverage, and the mall itself is well lit and secure. We did not observe any issues of anti-social behaviour.


3.96 Weston Favell is a centre offering good environmental quality. The mall, whilst appearing a little dated in parts, generally appears well maintained and clean, and appears to have benefited from recent investment.

Summary of facilities at Weston Favell

3.97 Weston Favell is well provided for facilities, and is the only district/local centre in Northampton to offer all eight of the benchmark service facilities. Doctor and dentist facilities are present at the Weston Favell Health Centre; there are post office facilities available within the Tesco store, and the enclosed mall offers Boots and Superdrug pharmacies, a Dolland & Aitchison Opticians, and Lloyds, Barclays and Natwest banking facilities. It is considered that Weston Favell should remain classified as a district centre within Northampton’s hierarchy of centres. Table 3.7 - Summary of key facilities in Weston Favell




Conclusions on District and Local centres

3.98 It is clear that there are significant differences in the performance, range of facilities, and overall vitality and viability of the district/local centres in Northampton. Below we summarise our findings of each centre.

3.99 Far Cotton is performing a role as a local centre although would benefit from enhancements to the shopping environment, better linkages between the anchor foodstore and the rest of the retail offer, and an improved range of complementary services.



3.100 Kingsley Park Terrace exhibits strong signs of vitality and viability, with a reasonable range of convenience shopping and services, and a reasonable number of benchmark facilities either within the centre or within a short walk. The centre performs the role and function of a local centre.

3.101 Kingsthorpe is a strong performing district centre exhibiting largely positive signs of vitality and viability. Vacancy rates are low and there is a reasonable diversity of uses. There is a strong emphasis on convenience goods provision in the centre on account of the presence of two large foodstores, and there is a good range of supporting services, with seven of the eight ‘benchmark’ district centre facilities present. The linear nature of the centre along the busy Harborough Road does impact on the quality of the environment, and it would appear that pedestrian activity does not dissipate far beyond the foodstores to the more peripheral parts of the centre.

3.102 St James End is showing signs of struggling for vitality and viability at present. There are a high number of vacant units, and the centre has a tired and run down appearance. However the centre does offer a strong range of services to support the local population and is therefore performing a local centre role.

3.103 Wellingborough Road is a linear centre which acts as something of an eastern extension of the town centre. The centre has a reasonable range of stores and services although would possibly benefit from a larger foodstore. Parts of the centre suffer from low footfall and appear run down. The centre clearly performs the function of a local centre.

3.104 Weston Favell is an untypical district centre due to its purpose-built nature, and the fact that the composition of the centre is one of an enclosed mall with a high proportion of national multiple retailers. The household survey undertaken in support of this study shows the centre to have a much larger trade draw than would be expected from a district centre. The centre shows strong signs of vitality and viability, with low vacancy rates, and extant operator demand, and is also benefiting from continued investment. Weston Favell is the only one of the district centre to contain all eight of the ‘benchmark’ facilities.



4 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF DAVENTRY TOWN CENTRE Retail Rankings

4.1 Daventry is the second-highest ranking town centre in West Northamptonshire, with a current ranking of 544th. It is apparent that the Daventry has seen its position in the Index decline for much of the past decade, dropping to 614th in the 2000/01 Index, but subsequently significantly improving to 502nd in the 2003/04 Index. Subsequent to this Daventry has lost ground in the rankings, and its current position is broadly in line with its original position in 1995/96. The fashion market position of the town is ‘lower’ suggesting a concentration of poorer quality, downmarket fashion outlets is prevalent.


4.2 Figure 18 of Appendix 1 charts the diversity of uses in Daventry town centre at the time of the most recent Experian Goad survey (July 2009) against current UK averages (February 2010). The diversity of uses is also shown mapped at Figure 19 of Appendix 1.

4.3 It can be seen that convenience uses account for 13 of the 163 units in the town centre, equivalent to 8.0 per cent of total units, marginally below the UK average for this sector. There is no representation from the ‘greengrocers & fishmongers’ and ‘off-licences and home brew’ sub-categories, but strong representation from the ‘bakers’ and ‘grocery and frozen foods’ subcategories.

4.4 Comparison goods representation is also strong in Daventry, and it is positive to note that there is representation from each of the 16 comparison goods sub-categories in the centre. Comparison goods account for 49.1 per cent of units in the centre, compared to a UK average of 42.9 per cent. All sub-sectors perform satisfactorily compared to their respective UK averages, and representation in the key ‘women’s, girls, children’s clothing’ sub-sector is 1.2 per cent above average.

4.5 Representation from services uses in Daventry is in line with UK averages, although we draw attention to the shortfall in the ‘restaurants, cafes, coffee bars, fast food & take-aways’ sub-sector, which posts representation 4.1 per cent below UK average.

4.6 At the time of the Goad survey Daventry had a low vacancy rate of 4.9 per cent, 7.4 per cent below the current UK average. This is a positive reflection on the vitality and viability of the town centre therefore. We return to discuss the current vacancy rates in the town centre below.

The amount of retail, leisure and office floorspace in edge-of-centre and out-of-centre locations (PPS4 Indicator A2)

4.7 Daventry has relatively little in the way of out-of-centre development to compete with the town centre, and until recently out-of-centre retailing has been mostly restricted to the Focus DIY store at Sopwith Way. The town has seen recent additions to its out-of-centre retail floorspace however with the opening of the Abbey Retail Park in 2009. Tenants operating from this scheme include Homebase, Halfords, Dreams, Pets at Home and



Carpetright. It is understood that there are a small number of vacant units remaining at this development.


4.8 Daventry is a second-tier ‘town’ centre in West Northamptonshire, alongside Towcester and Brackley. Over the course of the study period, we do not envisage Daventry’s position in the local retail hierarchy changing – it is not of sufficient size to be ranked a higher-order centre alongside Northampton town centre, but is an established and expanding free-standing settlement which must provide for the shopping needs of a substantial number of people, and thus any downgrading of the town in the retail hierarchy would be contrary to wider policy objectives for the town.

4.9 As has been set out in Volume 1 of this study, Daventry is expected to receive a larger population over the course of the study period, reflecting the planned expansion of the town through proposed sustainable urban extensions. Accordingly, it is important that the town centre is ‘fit for purpose’, and offers a sufficient range and quality of retail and complementary town centre uses to serve the needs of the expanded residential population. Volume 1 of the study set out that, at present, Daventry is underperforming in respect of the amount of expenditure on convenience and comparison goods which is retained by stores within the town by local residents. Presently many residents of the Daventry area are undertaking their food and non-food shopping in Banbury and Rugby; in order to become a sustainable centre in its own right, it is important that Daventry reduces this ‘leakage’ over the course of the study period.

4.10 We understand that there are proposals for a significant upgrading of the town’s retail offer, by way of a two-phase development by Henry Boot Developments. The first phase of this is expected to include 70,000 sq.ft of retail floorspace, alongside a new civic centre and library. The second phase will deliver larger-format edge(?)-of-centre retail space, alongside bars, restaurants and residential accommodation. It is understood that a planning application is to be submitted during 2010; if permitted and implemented, this development will cement Daventry’s role as a second-tier town centre of a sub-regional role, and would be expected to reduce ‘leakage’ of expenditure to destinations further afield.



4.11 There is representation from a wide range of convenience, comparison and services national multiple retailers in Daventry. The convenience offer includes three supermarket operators – Tesco, Waitrose and Aldi – as well as Greggs, Thorntons, and regional bakery group Oliver Adams. The comparison offer includes Clarks, New Look, Bon Marche, Dorothy Perkins, Boots, Superdrug and Argos. National service multiple retailers present in Daventry include a number of travel agents and banks/building societies, although we note there is little representation from national restaurant operators in the town.

Operator demand

4.12 Figure 4.1 charts the level of operator demand for premises in Daventry over the past decade. It can be seen that the number of requirements has shown a degree of fluctuation,



peaking most recently at 16 (October 2006), although this has declined to 10 (April 2009), before showing slight improvement to 11 by January 2010. The level of requirements for Daventry can be considered reasonable, reflecting its status as a ‘District’ level centre under the MHE classification. Figure 4.1 - Historic levels of operator demand in Daventry, Towcester and Brackley

Source: FOCUS Commercial Property Database, May 2010

4.13 The FOCUS Commercial Property identifies a total of nine ‘live’ retail requirements for Daventry (as at May 2010). The majority of requirements are from comparison goods operators, including Claire’s Accessories, Holland & Barrett, The Body Shop and The Works. These are also significantly larger requirements from Desire By Debenhams (average requirement 22,500 sq.ft gross) and The Original Factory shop (average requirement 10,500 sq.ft gross); the size of these latter requirements ensures they could not be readily accommodated within Daventry’s existing retail stock.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18Apr‐00

Sep‐00

Feb‐01

Jul‐0

1

Dec‐01

May‐02

Oct‐02

Mar‐03

Aug

‐03

Jan‐04

Jun‐04

Nov

‐04

Apr‐05

Sep‐05

Feb‐06

Jul‐0

6

Dec‐06

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Oct‐07

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Aug

‐08

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Jun‐09

Nov

‐09

Num

ber o

f req

uiremen

ts

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Oct‐03

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Apr‐05

Oct‐05

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Oct‐06

Apr‐07

Oct‐07

Jan‐09

Apr‐09

Jan‐10

Daventry 11 10 12 11 15 16 13 12 10 9 13 11 10 7 9 9 12 13 16

Towcester 5 4 5 5 3 3 2 3 0 0 1 1 0 0 0

Brackley 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 1



4.14 The active requirements for Daventry (as at May 2010) are summarised in Table 4.2 below. Table 4.2 - Active retailer requirements for Daventry

Retailer




Preferred Location

Convenience goods

Subway 600 2,000 1,300 All

Comparison goods

Claire's Accessories 876 1,076 976 -

Desire by Debenhams 20,000 25,000 22,500 -

Hatton Goldsmiths 290 1,000 645 In-centre

Holland & Barrett 850 1,500 1,175 In-centre

The Body Shop 800 2,000 1,400 -

The Original Factory Shop 6,000 15,000 10,500 All

The Works 1,500 2,500 2,000 In-centre

Total requirements 7

Average requirement sq.ft gross 5,599

Restaurants and cafes

Caffe Nero 800 1,500 1,150 In-centre



4.15 At the time of the Experian Goad survey of Daventry town centre (July 2009) there were eight vacant units in Daventry town centre, equivalent to a vacancy rate of 4.9 per cent, 7.4 per cent below the current UK average. The average size of the vacant units in the town centre was 155 sq.m, and the largest vacant units were a 280 sq.m gross unit on High Street, and a 230 sq.m gross unit on Sheaf Street. The former of these has subsequently been occupied by a baby goods store, whilst the latter remains vacant. At the time of our visit to the centre in May 2010 we noted nine vacant units in Daventry, two of which are currently being renovated.


4.16 Daventry appears a moderately busy town centre, with a clear ‘bustle’ apparent at the time of our visits. High Street and Bowen Square appeared the areas of the centre with the highest rates of pedestrian activity, and Sheaf Street also was observed to have reasonable footfall.


4.17 The town centre contains a number of small car parks and we observed that these can get quite busy – particularly those adjacent to Waitrose/Bowen Square, and also adjacent to Tesco (likely to be as this is free, whereas other car parks in the centre are pay and display). Parking is also permitted on High Street (permit holders only during retail trading hours), however as this is a narrow road, there is only room for one car to pass down. The



centre is reasonably pedestrian-friendly, particularly Sheaf Street and Bowen Square which are both pedestrianised.

4.18 Daventry has no rail station, with the nearest rail connections available from Rugby, Long Buckby and Northampton. There are frequent bus links to Northampton, and hourly connections to Rugby, all of which depart from the small bus station on New Street adjacent to Tesco.


4.19 Daventry feels a safe centre – there is CCTV coverage in some parts of the centre however this is relatively discreet. The centre is well lit. No instances of antisocial behaviour were observed.


4.20 Daventry has a pleasant town centre environment – there are numerous traditional buildings lining High Street and Sheaf Street which enhance the environmental quality of the centre. Buildings are generally in good condition although some of the units on High Street are beginning to look tired with poor quality shop fronts. The more modern buildings in Bowen Square and Foundry Walk, whilst being fit for purpose, do not overly complement their more traditional surroundings. The centre was also found to be generally clean, and there is ample provision of seating, including a number of small ‘courtyard’-type developments. The addition of traditional lamp-posts and the presence of trees in the centre also enhances the environmental quality of the centre.

Conclusions on Daventry

4.21 Daventry is a vital and viable town centre, with a solid range of national convenience, comparison and service retailers, including two strong-performing foodstores. There remains reasonable operator demand for premises in the centre, and this is likely to increase as the town’s residential population expands. The vacancy rate is reasonably low, and the centre benefits from a strong environmental quality. Daventry’s offer is however largely middle-of-the road, and there is a need to deliver a better quality retail offer in order to reduce the amounts of expenditure being ‘leaked’ to destinations further afield such as Rugby. The anticipated town centre retail-led scheme should provide a significant contribution towards addressing this issue.



5 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF SOUTH NORTHAMPTONSHIRE CENTRES (UPDATE)

5.1 Finally in our Performance Analysis we turn our attention to the two principal town centres in South Northamptonshire District, Brackley and Towcester, which we consider in turn below. In this section we draw reference to the recent ‘healthcheck’ assessments undertaken in these centres by Chase & Partners’ ‘South Northamptonshire Retail Study’ (published February 2010), the findings of which we supplements with our own assessment following site visits to each centre in May 2010.

Retail rankings

5.2 Brackley is listed as a eighth-tier ‘Local’ centre in the 2008 MHE Index (in common with Towcester). There has been relatively little change in the centre’s position in the Index over the past five years, with Brackley presently ranked in 1,364th position, a drop of 16 places from the preceding Index. The market position of the centre is a ‘middle’ market retail destination.


5.3 Chase & Partners’ South Northamptonshire Retail Study (February 2010) undertook an assessment of the diversity of uses in Brackley town centre, although the report did not provided a detailed breakdown of the convenience, comparison and services sub-categories. The results of this assessment are shown in Table 5.1 below, and it can be seen that convenience uses account for five of the 97 units in the town centre, equivalent to 5.2 per cent of the retail units in the centre, somewhat below the current UK average of 9.53 per cent. More apparent is the considerable shortfall of comparison goods retail provision, which accounts for just 18 units in the centre, equivalent to 18.6 per cent of units, 24.3 per cent below the current UK average of 42.9 per cent. This represents a significant underprovision and suggests an unbalanced retail mix in the town centre which may be detrimental to its long-term vitality and viability, as comparison goods expenditure will be lost to better-provided surrounding centres.

5.4 Chase & Partners comment that ‘the proportion of comparison goods is below average but…this is consistent with the national trend for major comparison goods shopping to locate in the larger centres’. We concur that the ‘polarisation’ effect of many larger comparison retail operators to larger centres must be taken into account, however a shortfall of the nature apparent in Brackley can still be considered cause for concern.

5.5 Reflecting the lack of comparison goods retail in the centre, the offer in Brackley is therefore predominantly orientated towards the services sector, which accounts for 59.8 per cent of units in the centre, 25.6 per cent against the current UK average. Services uses play an important role for meeting the needs of the residents of the town and surrounding hinterland but ultimately do not generate significant pedestrian activity. The composition of uses in Brackley town centre can be considered somewhat unbalanced at present therefore.

5.6 Our site visits to Brackley in May 2010 indicated that relatively little change in the retail mix in Brackley has taken place subsequent to the C&P study, with one additional unit to the



south of the town centre becoming vacant, and new openings in the form of a hairdressers, a youth café (due to open in the near future) and a taxi company (Figure 20, Appendix 1). The latter two of these occupy units identified as vacant in the C&P study, and therefore there has been a net reduction of one vacant unit in the town centre. Table 5.1 - Diversity of uses in Brackley town centre UK Brackley

Goad Code

Retailer category UK Average (Feb2010)%

Number of units

% of total units

% difference to UK avg

G1A-F Convenience goods retailers 9.53% 5 5.15% -4.38%

G2A-P Comparison goods retailers 42.90% 18 18.56% -24.34%

G3A-G Services 34.04% 58 59.79% 25.75%

G4B Vacant units 12.30% 16 16.49% 4.19%

G4A Employment, careers, Post Offices and information 1.23% - - -

TOTAL 100.00% 97 100.00% Source: South Northamptonshire Retail Study, Chase & Partners, February 2010

The amount of retail floorspace in edge-of-centre and out-of-centre locations (PPS4 Indicator A2)

5.7 We are not aware of any significant concentrations of out-of-centre retail floorspace in Brackley, with the exception of the standalone out-of-centre Tesco store on Oxford Road.


5.8 This performance assessment sets out that Brackley performs the role and function of a local service centre – its influence over the wider West Northamptonshire hierarchy is limited. The town is not expected to receive a significant quanta of housing growth as part of the West Northamptonshire growth agenda, and therefore the existing town centre does not need to be significantly upgraded to meet the requirements of a larger residential population. Brackley (and Towcester) should therefore strive to maintain their role as second-tier town centres which successfully meet the requirements of their urban populations and rural hinterland.



5.9 Reflecting the relatively limited size and function of Brackley, there is only limited representation from national multiple retailers in Brackley. The convenience offer in the town centre is led by Waitrose, who operate a moderate sized foodstore on Manor Road, to the west of High Street. The store was until recently occupied by the Co-Operative Group, and therefore the attraction of a higher-end retailer such as Waitrose to the town is a positive reflection of the potential of the town centre. There is also a small (137 sq.m net) Co-Op store located on High Street (although this anchors a second small parade of units



north of Pebble Lane, which is somewhat divorced from the main town centre retailing activity) and a McColls newsagent.

5.10 National comparison goods multiples are similarly limited and include Boots the Chemist, and Blockbuster. Services multiples include branches of Lloyds TSB (two branches) and Barclays in the Market Place, a Co-Op travel agents, and Bairstow Eves estate agents.

Operator demand

5.11 Figure 4.1 in the preceding section charts the historic levels of retailer demand for premises in Brackley, benchmarked against Daventry and Towcester. It can be seen that the number of requirements has fluctuated between one and three requirements at any period over the past decade. Whilst it would not be expected that a centre of the size, and with the role and function of Brackley would attract significant levels of operator demand, this nevertheless can be considered to represent very subdued demand, when compared to Towcester for example (which is considered in turn below).

5.12 Whilst the FOCUS Commercial Property Database does not list any current active retailer requirements for Brackley, C&P noted additional requirements for the town arise from Halfords (4,000 – 5,000 sq.ft gross) and Pets at Home (3,000 – 12,000 sq.ft gross) however these requirements are not presently listed in the FOCUS database. Moreover, both of these retailers are ‘bulky goods’ operators who trade from out-of-centre locations.


5.13 Chase & Partners’ study highlighted that Brackley has a vacancy rate of 16.5 per cent, which is 4.2 per cent above the current UK average of 12.3 per cent. Table 4 of the Chase & Partners study highlights the vacant units in the town centre at the time of their study; following our site visits to Brackley in May 2010 we have updated this plan to show the current state of vacancies in the town centre. The revised plan is shown at Figure 20 of Appendix 1 and shows that two of the four vacant units to the north of the town centre have now been let, although one small unit towards the southern end of the High Street has subsequently become vacant.


5.14 Chase & Partners found pedestrian footfall in Brackley to be reasonable, but with potential to be higher, and our own site visits to the centre concur with this view. There is considerable potential for improved footfall between the Waitrose store which anchors the centre and the remainder of the retail offer. Improvements to the quality of Drayman’s Walk (the principal route of pedestrian activity between the Market Place and Waitrose) would assist in this respect. Market Place can be considered to have the strongest levels of pedestrian footfall in the centre.


5.15 The centre is a compact centre, which can be easily navigated on foot. High Street is a busy route for vehicular traffic, and it is considered pedestrian movement around the centre would benefit from additional crossing opportunities.



5.16 There is limited provision of car parking in the centre and all the car parks were observed to be busy. There is a free car park adjacent to Waitrose, and on-street car parking along High Street. The busy car parks juxtapose somewhat with the muted pedestrian activity in the centre.

5.17 Brackley is not connected to the national rail network but does have a strong range of bus connections, although at lot of services operate at low frequency intervals with just a handful of services a day. Service 500 provides half-hourly connections to Banbury. The limited provision from elsewhere serves to limit the number of people within the rural hinterland for whom the town centre is readily accessible.


5.18 Brackley appears a safe town centre with no apparent signs of vandalism, antisocial behaviour, litter and such.


5.19 Brackley is a pleasant and largely attractive town centre; the majority of buildings are of good architectural quality, and whilst the noise from traffic along High Street does impact on the environmental quality slightly, it is not considered a major area of concern. The centre benefits from numerous planters and good quality street furniture.

Towcester

Retail rankings

5.20 Towcester is classed as an eighth-tier ‘Local’ centre in the MHE Index, and is currently ranked at 1,866th position. Towcester is notable for having a strong presence of higher-end retailers, reflected in its ‘upper-middle’ overall market position. The centre appears to have suffered a decline in position in the Index, however we consider this is due to changes in the MHE methodology, as noted above, rather than a severe decline in the performance of the centre11.


5.21 Table 5.2 sets out the diversity of uses in Towcester town centre, sourced from the South Northamptonshire Retail Study (February 2010). It can be seen that whilst representation from convenience goods shows a slight shortfall when compared to current UK averages, there is significant under-representation in the comparison goods sector, which posts representation 10.9 per cent below the current UK average, suggesting that there are current gaps in the offer of the town. Services uses account for 41 units in the centre, which is 20.6 per cent above the UK average. Whilst smaller, rural centres such as Towcester clearly have an important role to play as local service centres for the surrounding rural area, this imbalance is significant and suggests an imbalanced retail mix. The number of units

11 the 2008 Index was significantly expanded to include a larger number of ‘local’ and ‘minor local’ centres than were previously surveyed. Accordingly time-series data for Brackley, Towcester, and the majority of the District centres in Northampton, is unavailable. As the changes only affected ‘local’ and ‘minor local’ centres the higher order centres are unaffected and therefore time-series comparison is robust in these cases.



occupied by banks/building societies is particularly high given the relatively small size of the centre, but again reflects the service-orientated nature of the centre.

5.22 Positively we note the vacancy rate in the centre is very low, accounting for just four units at the time of the Chase & Partners survey, 7.0 per cent below the UK average. This suggests Towcester has managed to maintain a strong level of viability in the context of the economic downturn. Table 5.2 - Diversity of uses in Towcester UK Towcester

Goad Code

Retailer category UK Average (Feb2010)%

Number of units

% of total units

% difference to UK avg

G1A-F Convenience goods retailers 9.53% 6 8.00% -1.53%

G2A-P Comparison goods retailers 42.90% 24 32.00% -10.90%

G3A-G Services 34.04% 41 54.67% 20.63%

G4B Vacant units 12.30% 4 5.33% -6.97%

G4A Employment, careers, Post Offices and information 1.23% - - -

TOTAL 100.00% 75 100.00%Source: South Northamptonshire Retail Study, Chase & Partners, February 2010

5.23 Our site visits to Towcester in May 2010 indicate that there have been few significant changes in the intervening months since the Chase & Partners study, with a number of minor changes to the retail mix on the western side of the Watling Street West, as indicated at Figure 21 in Appendix 1.

The amount of retail floorspace in edge-of-centre and out-of-centre locations (PPS4 Indicator A2)

5.24 Towcester has relatively limited out-of-centre floorspace with the exception of the Tesco and Homebase stores on the periphery of the town.


5.25 The conclusions set out above in respect of Brackley for this indicator are equally applicable to Towcester: the centre should strive to maintain and strengthen its position as a second-tier town centre which fulfils its role as a local service centre to the surrounding rural hinterland throughout the study period. We do not see justification for any change to Towcester’s status in the West Northamptonshire retail hierarchy. We are not aware of any significant opportunities for expansion of the centre.



5.26 The Chase & Partners study identifies a total of 17 national multiple retailers present in Towcester. In respect of convenience retailers, these include two branches of the Co-Operative, whilst the presence of a large Waitrose store to the south of the town centre on Richmond Road forms a particularly positive addition to the retail offer. Given the limited amount of units given over to comparison retailers, there are relatively few national



comparison multiples in the centre, with the exception of high-end retailer And So To Bed, Lloyds Pharmacy, and a small number of charity shops. The majority of national multiples present are from the service sector, and include Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds TSB and Natwest banks, Nationwide building society, and YourMove estate agents. There is no representation from national restaurant or coffee shops in the centre, although the C&P study identifies a requirement from Costa in this respect.

5.27 Site visits to the centre in May 2010 indicate that there has been no change in multiple retailer representation since the C&P survey of the centre.

Operator demand

5.28 Presently (May 2010) the FOCUS commercial property database lists two active requirements for Towcester, and these are shown in Table 5.3 below. One requirement is from sandwich retailer Subway, who are seeking relatively small premises averaging 1,300 sq.ft gross; the second is from discount clothing and homewares retailer The Original Factory Shop, who are seeking substantial premises of between 6,000 and 15,000 sq.ft gross, which is unlikely to be accommodated within Towcester’s existing retail stock visits to the centre in May 2010 indicate that there has been no change in multiple retailer representation since the C&P survey of the centre. Table 5.3 – Current retailer requirements for Towcester

Retailer




Preferred Location

Convenience goods

Subway 600 2,000 1,300 All

Comparison goods

The Original Factory Shop 6,000 15,000 10,500 All


5.29 The C&P study identified additional extant requirements from the Blue Cross Charity Shop, and Costa Coffee, neither of which remain listed on the database, and therefore these retailers have either acquired premises in the centre, or reappraised their interest.


5.30 As noted above, Towcester benefits from a vacancy rate significantly below the national average, at just 5.3 per cent. The C&P study identified four vacant units in the centre at the time of their assessment of the centre; our site visits in May 2010 indicated that the same four units remain vacant, with a fifth unit at the junction of Park Street and Watling Street West having also become vacant subsequent to the C&P study (Figure 21, Appendix 1). Elsewhere in the centre there are two vacant units on Watling Street West, one on Park Street, and one in the Spoone House Shopping Centre.


5.31 The centre experiences moderate pedestrian flows, reflecting the fact it was the middle of the day and a weekday at the time of our visit. There appears to be only limited evidence of



linked pedestrian trips between the Waitrose store to the south of the town centre and the remainder of the centre, suggesting that Waitrose acts as something of a standalone store. The store itself was reasonably busy, although there was no evidence of queues at the checkouts. The other main foodstore in the town centre, the Co-Operative store in the Spoone House Shopping Centre, had low footfall, although the car park to the rear of the store seemed busy.

5.32 As identified in the C&P study, it is considered that better directional signposting in the centre for pedestrians, particularly between the main retail area and the Waitrose store, would benefit pedestrian footfall and thus the vitality and viability of the centre as a whole. The presence of Waitrose in the centre is evidently a fillip, and potential exists for the benefit of this to be more strongly felt by other retailers in the centre.


5.33 There are several public car parks in the town centre, all of which offer free parking. Car parks appeared reasonably busy at the time of our visit. Pedestrian movement around the centre is reasonable but Watling Street suffers from quite narrow pavements and only a limited number of pedestrian crossing opportunities.

5.34 In common with Brackley, Towcester has no connection with the national rail network, and bus provision in the town is also fairly limited. However there are hourly connections to both Northampton and Milton Keynes.


5.35 The centre seems safe and secure and no instances of crime or antisocial behaviour were observed at the time of our visit.


5.36 Towcester is a pleasant centre however the environmental quality of the centre is unquestionably compromised by the high volumes of vehicular traffic travelling along the A5 through the centre of the town. This ensures the town centre appears both noisy and congested, which negatively impacts on the environmental quality of the centre. This issue aside, Towcester appears well maintained and clean. Potential exists for the improvement in street furniture across the town centre. Conclusions on South Northamptonshire centres

5.37 Brackley and Towcester are both performing adequately as local service centres, with reasonable vitality and viability but with potential for improvement, particularly in Brackley. The majority of the retail offer in both centres is comprised of services retailers, particularly in Brackley, where such uses account for upwards of 50 per cent of all units in the centre. Brackley also suffers from an above-average vacancy rate and subdued levels of pedestrian activity except in the vicinity of the Waitrose store which anchors the centre.

5.38 Towcester displays stronger signs of vitality and viability, but also suffers from a lack of pedestrian activity in parts of the centre, and the environmental quality of the centre is negatively impacted by the busy A5 main road running through the centre.



5.39 Over the course of the plan period therefore it will be important for both towns to consolidate their role as local service centres whilst improving retail diversification and, in the case of Brackley, reducing the number of vacant units in the centre.



VOLUME 2 – APPENDIX 1

Tables and maps to accompany performance analysis



VOULME 2 - APPENDIX 2

Framework for monitoring vitality and viability of centres

Figure 1

Retail Rankings of Town and District Centres in West Northamptonshire Source: Management Horizons Europe UK Shopping Index, 2008, and preceding editions

Centre Location

grade

Market

position

Fashion

market

position

2008

Rank

2003/04

Rank

2000/01

Rank

1998/99

Rank

1995/96

Rank

Change

2003-

2008

Change

1995-

2008

Town centres

Northampton Major

Regional Middle Middle 43 43 37 39 38 0 -5

Daventry District Middle Lower 544 502 614 587 541 -42 -3

Brackley Local Middle - 1,364 1,348 - - - -16 -

Towcester Local Upper-

Middle - 1,866 1,545 - - - -321 -

Other centres in Northampton

Weston Favell District Middle Value 477 565 484 461 483 88 6

Kingsthorpe Minor

District Lower - 896 863 - - - -33 -

St Leonard's Road (Far Cotton) Minor

Local Middle Value 2,779 - - - - - -

St James End Minor

Local Value - 3,870 - - - - - -

Wellingborough Road - - - - - - - - - -

Retail Parks

Nene Valley, Northampton Minor

District Middle Middle 694 967 - - - 273 -

Riverside, Northampton Minor

District Middle Middle 711 743 - - - 32 -

Westgate Industrial Estate,

Northampton Local Middle Middle 1,247 - - - - - -

Weedon Road Local Value Value 2,133 - - - - - -

Kings Heath Industrial Park Minor

Local Lower - 3,120 - - - - - -

Sixfields Retail & Leisure Park Minor

Local

Upper-

Middle 3,870 - - - - - -

Surrounding centres

Aylesbury Sub-

Regional Middle Middle 117 111 151 145 139 -6 22

Banbury Sub-

Regional Middle Middle 149 122 182 170 161 -27 12

Bedford Sub-

Regional Middle Middle 126 118 87 88 73 -8 -53

Leamington Spa Regional Middle Middle 114 115 93 85 105 1 -9

Leicester (city centre) Major

Regional Middle Middle 14 10 11 9 13 -4 -1

Milton Keynes Major

Regional Middle

Upper-

Middle 30 29 55 53 57 -1 27

Rugby Major

District Middle Middle 241 189 176 182 181 -52 -60

Leicester (Fosse Park) Major

District Middle Middle 355 382 421 431 620 27 265

Figure 2

Diversity of uses in Northampton town centre Source: Roger Tym & Partners ‘Northampton Town Centre Healthcheck’, June 2009, Appendix 1

UK Northampton TC Goad Code Retailer category UK Average

(Feb2010)%

Number of

units

% of total

units

%

difference

to UK avg

Convenience goods retailers

G1A Bakers 1.96% 6 1.07% -0.89%

G1B Butchers 0.83% 1 0.18% -0.65%

G1C Greengrocers & fishmongers 0.66% 0 0.00% -0.66%

G1D Grocery and frozen foods 3.00% 1 0.18% -2.82%

G1E Off-licences and home brew 0.71% 2 0.36% -0.35%

G1F Confectioners, tobacconists, newsagents 2.36% 30 5.35% 2.99%

TOTAL 9.53% 40 7.13% -2.40%

Comparison goods retailers

G2A Footwear & repairs 2.00% 17 3.03% 1.03%

G2B Men's & boys’ wear 1.04% 9 1.60% 0.56%

G2C Women's, girls, children's clothing 4.95% 29 5.17% 0.22%

G2D Mixed and general clothing 3.44% 23 4.10% 0.66%

G2E Furniture, carpets & textiles 3.83% 10 1.78% -2.05%

G2F Booksellers, arts/crafts, stationers/copy bureaux 3.96% 19 3.39% -0.57%

G2G Electrical, home entertainment, telephones and video 4.14% 25 4.46% 0.32%

G2H DIY, hardware & household goods 2.88% 6 1.07% -1.81%

G2I Gifts, china, glass and leather goods 1.65% 11 1.96% 0.31%

G2J Cars, motorcycles & motor accessories 1.32% 1 0.18% -1.14%

G2K Chemists, toiletries & opticians 3.92% 9 1.60% -2.32%

G2L Variety, department & catalogue showrooms 0.67% 9 1.60% 0.93%

G2M Florists and gardens 1.03% 2 0.36% -0.67%

G2N Sports, toys, cycles and hobbies 2.20% 13 2.32% 0.12%

G2O Jewellers, clocks & repair 2.12% 15 2.67% 0.55%

G2P Charity shops, pets and other comparison 3.74% 26 4.63% 0.89%

TOTAL 42.90% 224 39.93% -2.97%

Services

G3A Restaurants, cafes, coffee bars, fast food & take-aways 15.10% 75 13.37% -1.73%

G3B Hairdressers, beauty parlours & health centres 7.94% 45 8.02% 0.08%

G3C Laundries & drycleaners 1.00% 2 0.36% -0.64%

G3D Travel agents 1.35% 5 0.89% -0.46%

G3E Banks & financial services (incl. accountants) 4.19% 24 4.28% 0.09%

G3F Building societies 0.61% 7 1.25% 0.64%

G3G Estate agents & auctioneers 3.86% 19 3.39% -0.47%

TOTAL 34.04% 177 31.55% -2.49%

Miscellaneous and vacant units

G4A Employment, careers, Post Offices and information 1.23% 23 4.10% 2.87%

G4B Vacant units (all categories) 12.30% 97 17.29% 4.99%

TOTAL 13.53% 120 21.39% 7.86%

GRAND TOTAL 100.00% 561 100.00%

Shortfall of 2% or more compared to UK average (G1, G2, G3 uses only)

Overprovision of 2% or more compared to UK average (G1, G2, G3 uses only)

Figures relate to retail mix at the time of the Experian GOAD survey and do not take into account subsequent changes.

Figure 3

Retailer requirements for Northampton town centre Source: FOCUS Commercial Property Database, May 2010

Retailer

Minimum

floorspace

requirement

(sq.ft gross)

Maximum

floorspace

requirement

(sq.ft gross)

Average

floorspace

requirement

(sq.ft gross)

Preferred

Location

Convenience goods

Greggs 500 1,500 1,000 In-centre

Millie's Cookies 300 500 400 -

Subway 600 2,000 1,300 All


Average requirement sq.ft gross 900

Comparison goods

Floors2Go 2,500 3,000 2,750 Out-of-centre

Fonehouse 500 1,000 750 In-centre

Hammonds Furniture 1,000 5,000 3,000 -

Hatton Goldsmiths 290 1,000 645 In-centre

Hooty's 30,000 90,000 60,000 Out-of-centre

HPJ Jewellers 700 1,200 950 In-centre

Johnsons Cleaners 1,000 1,500 1,250

Linens Direct 1,500 2,500 2,000 -

Machine Mart 1,500 6,000 3,750 Out-of-centre

Optimax 3,500 5,000 4,250 -

Peacocks 4,500 7,500 6,000 All

Profile Clothing 1,000 6,000 3,500 -

Savers 1,500 2,000 1,750 In-centre

Select 3,000 4,000 3,500 In-centre

The Fragrance Shop 240 600 420 In-centre

This is It 2,000 3,000 2,500 -

Tile Giant 3,000 10,000 6,500 Out-of-centre

TJ Hughes 25,000 150,000 87,500 All

tReds 1,000 1,750 1,375 -

Varanni Shoes 1,000 2,500 1,750 In-centre

Wheels of Sport 1,000 2,500 1,750 In-centre

Yours 1,500 2,000 1,750 In-centre

Zara 2,691 3,229 2,960 In-centre



Average requirement sq.ft gross (in-centre) 6,716

Restaurants and cafes

Chiquito 3,500 5,000 4,250 All

Frankie & Benny's 3,500 5,000 4,250 All

Starbucks 700 1,800 1,250 -



Leisure and other requirements

Cruise Nightclubs 4,000 25,000 14,500 In-centre

Fitness 4 Less 15,000 20,000 17,500 All

Hooters 4,000 8,000 6,000 All

Vets4Pets 2,000 2,400 2,200 Out-of-centre

Figure 4

Changes to vacant units in Northampton town centre since Experian Goad survey Source: RTP site visits, May 2010

Figure 5

Pedestrian activity in Northampton town centre Source: RTP site visits, May 2009

Figure 6

Diversity of uses in Far Cotton (St Leonard’s Road) Source: RTP centre survey, June 2010

UK Far Cotton Goad Code Retailer category UK Average

(Feb2010)%

Number of

units

% of total

units

%

difference

to UK avg


G1A Bakers 1.96% 1 1.89% -0.07%

G1B Butchers 0.83% 0 0.00% -0.83%


G1D Grocery and frozen foods 3.00% 4 7.55% 4.55%

G1E Off-licences and home brew 0.71% 2 3.77% 3.06%

G1F Confectioners, tobacconists, newsagents 2.36% 1 1.89% -0.47%

TOTAL 9.53% 8 15.09% 5.56%


G2A Footwear & repairs 2.00% 0 0.00% -2.00%

G2B Men's & boys’ wear 1.04% 1 1.89% 0.85%

G2C Women's, girls, children's clothing 4.95% 0 0.00% -4.95%




G2G Electrical, home entertainment, telephones and video 4.14% 1 1.89% -2.25%





G2L Variety, department & catalogue showrooms 0.67% 0 0.00% -0.67%

G2M Florists and gardens 1.03% 1 1.89% 0.86%




TOTAL 42.90% 14 26.42% -16.48%

Services

G3A Restaurants, cafes, coffee bars, fast food & take-aways 15.10% 14 26.42% 11.32%


G3C Laundries & drycleaners 1.00% 2 3.77% 2.77%

G3D Travel agents 1.35% 0 0.00% -1.35%


G3F Building societies 0.61% 0 0.00% -0.61%


TOTAL 34.04% 30 56.60% 22.56%


G4A Employment, careers, Post Offices and information 1.23% 0 0.00% -1.23%

G4B Vacant units (all categories) 12.30% 1 1.89% -10.41%

TOTAL 13.53% 1 1.89% -11.64%

GRAND TOTAL 100.00% 53 100.00%

Figure 7

Map of diversity of uses in Far Cotton (St Leonard’s Road) Source: RTP centre survey, June 2010

Base map source: WNJPU

Figure 8

Diversity of uses in Kingsley Park Terrace Source: Experian Goad survey, September 2009

UK Kingsley Park Terrace Goad Code Retailer category UK Average

(Feb2010)%

Number of

units

% of total

units

%

difference

to UK avg


G1A Bakers 1.96% 2 4.35% 2.39%

G1B Butchers 0.83% 0 0.00% -0.83%





TOTAL 9.53% 6 13.04% 3.51%



G2B Men's & boys’ wear 1.04% 1 2.17% 1.13%


G2D Mixed and general clothing 3.44% 0 0.00% -3.44%

G2E Furniture, carpets & textiles 3.83% 2 4.35% 0.52%





G2J Cars, motorcycles & motor accessories 1.32% 2 4.35% 3.03%

G2K Chemists, toiletries & opticians 3.92% 2 4.35% 0.43%



G2N Sports, toys, cycles and hobbies 2.20% 0 0.00% -2.20%

G2O Jewellers, clocks & repair 2.12% 0 0.00% -2.12%


TOTAL 42.90% 14 30.43% -12.47%

Services




G3D Travel agents 1.35% 0 0.00% -1.35%

G3E Banks & financial services (incl. accountants) 4.19% 1 2.17% -2.02%


G3G Estate agents & auctioneers 3.86% 4 8.70% 4.84%

TOTAL 34.04% 19 41.30% 7.26%




TOTAL 13.53% 7 15.22% 1.69%

GRAND TOTAL 100.00% 46 100.00%

Figure 9

Map of diversity of uses in Kingsley Park Terrace Source: Experian Goad survey, September 2009

Figure 10

Diversity of uses in Kingsthorpe Source: Experian Goad survey, September 2007

UK Kingsthorpe Goad

Code

Retailer category UK Average

(Feb2010)%

Number of

units

% of total

units

%

difference

to UK avg


G1A Bakers 1.96% 2 3.51% 1.55%

G1B Butchers 0.83% 1 1.75% 0.92%





TOTAL 9.53% 8 14.04% 4.51%



G2B Men's & boys’ wear 1.04% 0 0.00% -1.04%




G2F Booksellers, arts/crafts, stationers/copy bureaux 3.96% 3 5.26% 1.30%


G2H DIY, hardware & household goods 2.88% 2 3.51% 0.63%

G2I Gifts, china, glass and leather goods 1.65% 0 0.00% -1.65%





G2N Sports, toys, cycles and hobbies 2.20% 1 1.75% -0.45%



TOTAL 42.90% 22 38.60% -4.30%

Services


G3B Hairdressers, beauty parlours & health centres 7.94% 1 1.75% -6.19%


G3D Travel agents 1.35% 4 7.02% 5.67%




TOTAL 34.04% 26 45.61% 11.57%


G4A Employment, careers, Post Offices and information 1.23% 0 0.00% -1.23%


TOTAL 13.53% 1 1.75% -11.78%

GRAND TOTAL 100.00% 57 100.00%

Figure 11

Map of diversity of uses in Kingsthorpe Source: Experian Goad survey, September 2007

Figure 12

Diversity of uses in St James End Source: RTP centre survey, June 2010

UK St James End Goad Code Retailer category UK Average

(Feb2010)%

Number of

units

% of total

units

%

difference

to UK avg


G1A Bakers 1.96% 1 2.33% 0.37%

G1B Butchers 0.83% 0 0.00% -0.83%

G1C Greengrocers & fishmongers 0.66% 1 2.33% 1.67%




TOTAL 9.53% 7 16.28% 6.75%



G2B Men's & boys’ wear 1.04% 0 0.00% -1.04%



G2E Furniture, carpets & textiles 3.83% 2 4.65% 0.82%







G2L Variety, department & catalogue showrooms 0.67% 1 2.33% 1.66%




G2P Charity shops, pets and other comparison 3.74% 0 0.00% -3.74%

TOTAL 42.90% 9 20.93% -21.97%

Services




G3D Travel agents 1.35% 0 0.00% -1.35%


G3F Building societies 0.61% 0 0.00% -0.61%


TOTAL 34.04% 15 34.88% 0.84%




TOTAL 13.53% 12 27.91% 14.38%

GRAND TOTAL 100.00% 43 100.00%

Figure 13

Map of diversity of uses in St James End Source: RTP centre survey, June 2010

Base map source: WNJPU

Figure 14

Diversity of uses in Wellingborough Road Source: Experian Goad survey, September 2009

UK Wellingborough Road Goad Code Retailer category UK Average

(Feb2010)%

Number of

units

% of total

units

%

difference

to UK avg


G1A Bakers 1.96% 2 1.36% -0.60%

G1B Butchers 0.83% 1 0.68% -0.15%




G1F Confectioners, tobacconists, newsagents 2.36% 5 3.40% 1.04%

TOTAL 9.53% 16 10.88% 1.35%



G2B Men's & boys’ wear 1.04% 2 1.36% 0.32%















TOTAL 42.90% 48 32.65% -10.25%

Services




G3D Travel agents 1.35% 0 0.00% -1.35%

G3E Banks & financial services (incl. accountants) 4.19% 6 4.08% -0.11%



TOTAL 34.04% 63 42.86% 8.82%




TOTAL 13.53% 20 13.61% 0.08%

GRAND TOTAL 100.00% 147 100.00%

Figure 15

Map of diversity of uses in Wellingborough Road Source: Experian Goad survey, September 2009

Figure 16

Diversity of uses in Weston Favell Source: Experian Goad survey, July 2009

UK Weston Favell Goad Code Retailer category UK Average

(Feb2010)%

Number of

units

% of total

units

% difference

to UK avg


G1A Bakers 1.96% 1 1.49% -0.47%

G1B Butchers 0.83% 1 1.49% 0.66%





TOTAL 9.53% 6 8.96% -0.57%



G2B Men's & boys’ wear 1.04% 1 1.49% 0.45%















TOTAL 42.90% 33 49.25% 6.35%

Services




G3D Travel agents 1.35% 2 2.99% 1.64%




TOTAL 34.04% 20 29.85% -4.19%




TOTAL 13.53% 8 11.94% -1.59%

GRAND TOTAL 100.00% 67 100.00%

Figure 17

Map of Diversity of uses in Weston Favell Source: Experian Goad survey, July 2009

Figure 18

Diversity of uses in Daventry town centre Source: Experian Goad survey, July 2009

UK Daventry Goad Code Retailer category UK Average

(Feb2010)%

Number of

units

% of total

units

%

difference

to UK avg


G1A Bakers 1.96% 4 2.45% 0.49%

G1B Butchers 0.83% 2 1.23% 0.40%


G1D Grocery and frozen foods 3.00% 4 2.45% -0.55%



TOTAL 9.53% 13 7.98% -1.55%



G2B Men's & boys’ wear 1.04% 1 0.61% -0.43%















TOTAL 42.90% 80 49.08% 6.18%

Services




G3D Travel agents 1.35% 3 1.84% 0.49%




TOTAL 34.04% 57 34.97% 0.93%




TOTAL 13.53% 13 7.98% -5.55%

GRAND TOTAL 100.00% 163 100.00%

Figure 19

Map of diversity of uses in Daventry town centre Source: Experian Goad survey, July 2009

Figure 20

Changes in retail provision in Brackley town centre Subsequent to Chase & Partners Retail Study

Source: RTP site visits, May 2010

Figure 21

Changes in retail provision in Towcester town centre Subsequent to Chase & Partners Retail Study

Source: RTP site visits, May 2010

Volume 2 – Appendix 2

Framework for monitoring vitality and viability of centres in West Northamptonshire