welcome to the leicester mercury business summit 2015

Welcome to the Leicester Mercury

Business Summit 2015

Please Welcome Your MC for Today…

David BryonThe Former Managing Director of low-cost

airline Bmibaby, David built the business into one of Europe’s largest and most successful carriers. Returning to the media spotlight,

David has built an excellent reputation as both a professional business speaker and a highly

amusing after-dinner speaker.

Sponsored by

Sally SwannHead of JLT Specialty Nottingham

Copyright © 2011 CIL Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phillip Wood Head of the Midlands Region for UBS Wealth Management


Mike Kirsopp CEO of


David Smith

Economics Editor of The Sunday TimesSponsored by

Will something continue to turn up?

Leicester Business Festival: The Economic Outlook

What’s been happening?

Politics has surprised

The recovery has got better

Inflation back below zero

Though house prices are still rising

Rise in employment achieves a record

Wage growth picking up

Service sector still driving growth

China is the big global worry

But its slowdown is no bad thing

• Growth average since 1978 – 9.5% a year – was never sustainable long-term.

• Slower growth may be better quality growth

• As China converges on the West it will gradually slow to Western growth rates.

And forecasts are still for decent world growth

What’s the outlook?

Four questions about the outlook

•When will interest rates start rising?•Will Britain stay in the EU?•What’s in prospect for economic recovery?

•What does it mean for Leicester?

1. A long time at 0.5% Bank Rate

Janet Yellen is reasonably clear

“I anticipate that it will likely be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate

sometime later this year and to continue boosting short-term rates at a gradual pace

thereafter as the labor market improves further and inflation moves back to our 2% objective,”

Janet Yellen, September 23 2015

The Bank of England less so (1)

• Mark Carney: Rate decision will come into ‘sharper focus’ around the turn of the year.

• Andy Haldane (chief economist): No case for a hike, rates could even have to go negative

The Bank of England less so (2)

• Ian McCafferty: Hike now is justified to head off wage and inflationary pressures later

• Ben Broadbent (deputy governor): Even without China worries “I was not one of those on the brink of voting for higher interest rates.”

No reversal of QE until rates rise

The bottom line on rates• Only the Fed and Bank of England are

thinking of rate hikes• Watch the Fed – no move likely before

December; 2016 is election year• Both central banks want to raise rates

but closely watching the data• No reversal of QE until rates have risen

2. Will Britain stay in the EU?

1. Cameron aim is to renegotiate without alienating EU partners.

2. Key issues are immigration, red tape.3. Most of the rest of the EU does not want

the UK to leave.4. Neither does the British public – at the

moment.

Greek and migrant crises exposed EU divisions

Attitudes to UK membership move around

Depending on UK consumer confidence

And the state of the European economy

But Britain should stay in

• Only a small minority of voters are firmly in the exit camp.

• Scottish referendum demonstrated that people are risk-averse.

• Economic risks will be at the forefront of the EU referendum vote.

• Though it could be close.

3. Recovery has decent momentum

Real wages rising again

Though inflation will gradually pick up

Lending to firms recovering

As is mortgage activity

Business investment recovering well

4. The East Midlands economy: smaller service sector, bigger production sector than UK average

A high East Midlands employment rate

Strong employment growth

And relatively low unemployment

Growth holding up better than most

* East Midlands economy hotter than most.

* Purchasing managers’ index in September 55.4, behind only London (55.6) and above UK average of 53.3.

East Midlands 3rd strongest growth region

Summing up- Rise in interest rates still some way off, and

increases will be gradual to a lower “new normal” – but watch for more hike votes.

- UK should stay in EU but referendum will create uncertainty.

- Economic recovery has decent momentum and should be accompanied by a further strengthening of credit growth.

- Leicester well-placed within a successful East Midlands region.

Finally, keep counting those skips


David Smith

Sunday TimesSeptember 2011

Refreshment Break


Mick VentolaManaging Director of


David Smith


Bonita NorrisExplorer, motivational speaker &

Broadcaster, formerly the youngest British Woman to Summit Mt Everest

Sponsored by


David Smith


Lunch to be served in the Upstairs Court Yard Suite

& Downstairs Cafe


Chris Darlington Partner of

Mazars Leicester


David Smith


Gareth Davis

Sponsored by

Chairman of William Hill and Wolseley, former CEO of

Imperial Tobacco

David BryonThe Former Managing Director of low-cost

airline Bmibaby, David built the business into one of Europe’s largest and most successful carriers. Returning to the media spotlight,

David has built an excellent reputation as both a professional business speaker and a highly

amusing after-dinner speaker.

Networking & Drinks

Thank You

welcome to the leicester mercury business summit 2015

Documents

western growth rates

shortterm rates

growth china

slower growth

bank rate janet yellen

record wage growth

leicester business festival

negativethe bank of