27th June to 4th July 2009

The Upcoming Heat waveOutlook

Week Ahead Forecast. (Temperatures are Maximums)

City 27th & 28th June 29th-1st July 2nd-4th July

Aberdeen

Birmingham

Cardiff

Edinburgh

Liverpool

London

Newcastle

Norwich

Plymouth

Southampton

Risk

18

24

19

22

26

25

20

22

22

23

22

30

31

27

27

25

24

28

26

28

Risk

Risk

Risk

Risk

Risk

Risk

31

32

28

26

29

26

28

25

28

23

National Summary...It is apparent that a heat wave is on the way which is probably the first proper one since 2006 for most people really. The heat will affect the Southern half of the UK greatest so the East Midlands, East Anglia , the West Midlands, SE England and SW England will be affected most. Tuesday to Friday looks like it will see the highest temperatures with Wednesday or Thursday perhaps seeing the very maximum of this heat wave with 27-30c widely though up to 32c (90f) is possible, particularly in heavy built up areas such as the West Midlands and London though other places could see temperatures almost or touching the magical 90f. Humidity will be high to very high though making things feel very uncomfortable so drinking plenty of fluids , keeping rooms as cool as possible and checking on young children and the elderly is vital. Another problem will be warm, uncomfortable nights. Temperatures may not drop below 18c in some urban areas and perhaps not below 15c elsewhere. Otherwise, there should be quite a lot of sunshine on offer each day with just a chance of some scattered thunderstorms in the late afternoon, particularly in the South West Quarter of the UK (Wales, West Midlands & SW England though spreading Eastwards at times). UV Levels are also at their highest now so put on sun cream on regularly and try to keep out of the sun between 11am-3pm where possible. For the North temperatures wont be quite so hot but never the less it will be very warm and humid. Low cloud may lap onto North East coasts at times making things much cooler but also quite depressing. Sometimes this may spread inland at night but with the strong sunshine this will burn off quickly for most. Towards the end of the week there may be a slight breakdown with the chance of Thunderstorms increasing once again but there is no definite date when this change may occur-it may not happen around next weekend for example. It does look likely that until next Friday at least, it will turn hot and sunny for many with approximately a 30% risk of Thunderstorms on most days of the week. Enjoy the upcoming week but stay safe-wear sun cream, keep cool, check on others and enjoy!

Heatwave Risk for the Coming Week...

Heatwave Risk KeyVery Low- 10%-20% Chance

Low- 20%-30% Chance

Low-Moderate- 30-40% Chance

Moderate- 40-50% Chance

Moderate- 50-60% Chance

Moderate-High- 60-70%

High- 70-80% Chance

High-Very High- 80-90% Chance

Very High- 90-100% Chance

50-60%

40-50%

30-40%

20-30%

10-20%

UV Index for the Week Ahead...

1 2

UV Index Key...Low-You can Stay safely outside. No Protection Required.

3 4 5 Moderate-Seek Shade during midday hours. Cover up and wear sun cream.

6 7 High- Seek Shade during midday hours. Cover up and regularly apply sun cream.

8 Very High- Avoid being outside during midday hours but shirt, hat and sun cream is essential. (Rare in the UK)

Remember...During sunny weather...The UV index (the strength of the sun) can be high at many times of the year — it doesn't have to be hot. The UV index can be strong through cloud even when the sun isn't directly shining. If you go out, wear lightweight, light-coloured clothing, high factor sunscreen and a wide-brimmed hat. Avoid being in the sun for long stretches. Reapply an appropriate factor sun cream at regular intervals during the day.

777

77

7

6

6

6

6

5

53

The Upcoming Week... Weather & Temperature Overall...

27